Monthly Archives: September 2012

UK Economy Boosted by Revised GDP Figures

The UK economy received a welcome boost, as the ONS (office of national statistics) announced that the UK economy had contracted by less than first thought in the second quarter of this year. The official figures show a contraction of 0.4%, rather than the initial estimation of 0.7% and this will certainly please UK leaders, as the fight to pull ourselves out of recession continues. Sterling has seen further gains against the euro during Thursday’s trading, as fears over Spain and Greece continue to weigh heavily on investors minds.

We also had further developments in Spain as leaders laid out their austerity budget for 2013, which included new spending cuts amid a shrinking economy and 25% unemployment. These problems, coupled with the on-going uncertainty with Greece is hampering the EUR chances of gaining ground against GBP. The image of Greek protesters is an all too familiar sight and brings about a serious case of deja vu to this particular analyst. These scenes are very reminiscent of six months ago, when the eurozone debt crisis was gathering a head of steam and media reports about the collapse of the euro were rife. Since then we have seen multiple bailouts, commitment to the country by a variety of key European figureheads and promises from a new government to bring about the necessary austerity measures to keep Greece in the eurozone.

The question now is whether the issues facing Spain and Greece have been factored into the market movements over the past few days? Mario Draghi’s recent commitment to Greece and the euro with his ‘unlimited’ bond buying scheme, in essence should help to protect the eurozone against these kind of future fall-outs. However, this scheme has yet to be put into effect and as such I will remain sceptical until proven otherwise. GBP/EUR rates continue to float around 1.26, as the markets try to digest the outcome of these recent developments.

This market uncertainty can be difficult to digest, especially if you have an upcoming property purchase or sale and are looking to transfer funds but are worried that market movements will ultimately leave you short changed. Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have multiple contract types all tailored specifically towards our client’s needs. One of our most popular types is our forward contract, which allows you to lock in an exchange rate even if you do not have the full funds available. This is perfect for anyone looking to eliminate risk from the market but still take advantage of our award winning rates. If you would like more information please contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or on 01494 787 478.

www.currencies.co.uk – Change money with Foreign Currency

GBPEUR Forecast 26-09-12 – End of Week

Good Morning Readers,

Today brings another day of uncertainty over the direction of GBPEUR rates with the focus very much on Spain. The will they, won’t they, surely they must scenario persists with everyone on tenterhooks waiting for news of the bailout. There was some good news for the Euro with a meeting between Mario Darghi and Angela Merkel in which we saw the existing bond buying plan confirmed and German concerns over abilities of weaker members to pay back loans also given voice.

Nevertheless the immediate fears remain. I personally feel Spain will get a bailout in the next month and then the Euro will strengthen. If clients are buying Euros or holding out considering whether or not to buy Euros, they should move sooner rather than later. At the very least get in touch with me since the market can change quickly. I can then keep an eye on the market for you and make sure if the rate does fall, you do not lose out.

My name is Jonathan and I have been writing blogs for many years on the currency markets as a sideline to my role as a specialist currency broker. Behind the information we can provide on the site, I can actually assist with the physical transfer of money internationally at a commercial rate of exchange, much better than the banks and other sources.

For a full discussion and explanation of all the issues surrounding your transfer, as well as a full step by step guide on how our service works, please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or feel free to call 01494 787 478. International clients are most welcome (just add 00 44 and drop the first 0 on the number) and I can help with bank to bank transfers.

I look forward to hearing from you

sterling at a two week high against the Euro

Sterling exchange rates strengthened to over a two week high against the Euro today spiking at 1.2599. This is an excellent gain from 1.2330 that the pound weakened down to two weeks ago.

It is amazing at how quickly confidence can flow in and out of the Euro zone. At the beginning of the month the Euro significantly strengthened on the back of the European Central banks (ECB)announcement at their last interest rate decision that they will buy unlimited bonds to help keep borrowing costs down for vulnerable Euro countries. (this was an excellent time for clients looking at selling Euros)

Now the uncertainty has come back over whether Spain will seek a bailout and concerns about Greece’s failure to hit the targets of its own international rescue has caused the Euro to fall once more. The announcement that the ECB was going to buy unlimited bonds did give the Euro some relief but it has certainly not solved the Euro crisis. If you are still sitting on Euros have not exchanged them yet then I would highly recommend getting in contact with us. We can offer you the facility to place limit and stop loss orders to really try and help you maximise your exchange while limiting your losses.

The volatility in the exchange rate recently goes to show how quickly GBP/EUR can move in one direction or the other very quickly. With little data out of the UK this week all eyes are on Europe and announcement’s from Germany.

I am happy to be your eyes and ears on the market to try and help you maximise your exchange rate. I offer my clients a very personal service to try and help you maximise your exchange while taking away exchange rate fluctuations depending on your circumstances.  If I know what your requirement is I will keep you posted on all the market movements. If you have a requirement to buy or sell the Euro please do contact me with your requirement and I will explain all the options that are available to you. You may email me at bma@currencies.co.uk and I will come back to you as soon as possible.

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

Euro confidence dropping

Regular readers will be aware of the building pressure on Europe to resolve and create a long term relief package for Greece and Spain. Even though these packages have already been created both have yet to be confirmed. In Greece’s situation they are still struggling to abide by the financial program to manage their debt. They are expected to again ask for an extension to accept the changes. In Spain, even though the bond program has been signed off, Spain is yet to put their hand out and ask. It is for these two reasons why we have seen the euro weaken off slightly over the last 7 days.

Currently investors don’t know when, how much and if Spain will ask for assistance which is why they have taken money out of the risky currency.

So what does the future hold?

Well there are two key political events taking place today. These include a key meeting between Angela Merkel and Mario Draghi in Germany, and Paul Fisher, who is a Bank of England policymaker, that is speaking later this morning. Plus on top of that we have a bond auction for both Italy and Spain, (Spanish 10 year bonds are at 5.95% and Italian at 5.1%.)

I would not be surprised if in the next week Spanish bonds did creep over the 7% threshold that I think would be the catalyst for Spain to ask for a bailout, so as a result I can see GBPEUR rates staying steady at these levels or climbing slowly over the next 7 days. From next week onwards we enter a new month with new data that will once again push market prices, visit us on a regular basis to be keep up to date.

What would I do?

Well there is no Crystal Ball so I would suggest everyone who has a position or trade to complete come to their own conclusion. Plus I would also suggest limiting any exposure by utilising a STOP or LIMIT ORDER on larger transfers once I had calculated how much I was willing to risk.

However, simply put, if I was selling the Euro and needed to move within the next 14 days I would move sooner rather than later, if I was a buyer I would watch with much interest looking to ride the market up if my stress levels could stay at a comfortable level.

Here at Foreign Currency Direct PLC we have been helping people move money internationally for over 12 years. We have won a number of awards for our service and exchange rate so if you have found this information useful and want to make sure you are trading right contact us today. Simply put if we could not save you money compared to your current provider we would not be in business!

Any questions please feel free to ask, this information is for your benefit, hopefully….

Thank you,

Steve Eakins
hse@currencies.co.uk

www.currencies.co.uk – Change money with Foreign Currency

GBP/EUR steady on the day, what data will affect GBP/EUR this week? GBP/EUR forecast.

Sterling exchange rates have gained just shy of 0.3% against the Euro today on a relatively quiet start to the week on a quite day data wise. Should you have an interest in either the Pound or Euro watch out for the following data as this may impact on the short term direction for GBP/EUR. Tomorrow as with today is also relatively quiet as far as data is concerned, however there is an important meeting tomorrow between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi. The meeting is scheduled to discuss the state of the Euro and may cause market volatility as a result.

Heading into Wednesday data is mainly Euro focused with CPI (inflation figures) from Germany and consumer confidence figures from France, both are early morning releases and could pave the way for Wednesdays Euro movements. Heading towards the tail end of the week Thursday and Friday are full of data from both the UK and Europe starting with UK house price data at 07:00 and European unemployment figures at 08.55. Possibly more important for this pairing will be UK GDP figures at 09:30 – this is the second revision for quarter 2 and is expected to remain at -0.5%, however any deviation and this can cause big swings either way for the pound.

To finish the trading week watch out for European Retail Sales figures on Friday released at 07:00 – expecting a slight improvement month on month from -1% to -0.7% and is likely to give slight support to the Euro. Overall I would expect the Euro to find some support this week and would expect to see levels heading towards 1.24 and below, potentially good news should be looking to sell Euros in the short term.

As one of the specialist currency brokers at currencies.co.uk I am happy to discuss my opinion and views with you to help you negotiate the best rate of exchange when arranging your transfer. As one of the largest UK’s brokers we assist private and corporate clients with transfers ranging from property completions, import/export requirements, monthly/quarterly invoicing, inheritance to name just a few – basically any circumstance where a money transfer can be arranged electronically. Should you have a currency transfer pending and would like to discuss my views and the various contracts we can offer to give you more control over your exchange then please contact Mike directly on mgv@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787478 and I will gladly be of assistance.

www.currencies.co.uk – Change money with Foreign Currency

GBPEUR rates start to climb but why? Traders beware…

GBPEUR rates have ended the week higher than were is started surprising most including myself. I think a majority of the gains comes from good unemployment data from the UK and as confidence again starts to waiver for Europe and Spain traders are selling off any euro positions. However please note that generally the data out of Europe this week has all showed a more positive view, hence why so many are surprised to see rates as high.

So why is confidence falling again?

The reason why is due to the support package that has been offered to Spain that is just to be taken. Even though the bond markets have stayed steady most are betting they will worsen again if the bailout is not taken soon and hence the euro will weaken more.

So in summary if you have a GBPEUR trade to make then that is the large gamble on the market over the next 7 days, whether a bailout will come or not to Spain. Why the next 7 days, well as we are at the end of the month there is little data due, (economic data reports on the previous month so is normally published at the beginning of the week.) Scary as it sounds, October starts the following week, even though most like me will ask where the summer was. It is then when influential data will return and push rates.

If you are buying euros or selling euros, then make sure you are limiting your exposure to the markets as this news could easily push rates by 2.5% I think, making a difference of over €3,250 for every £100,000 exchanged. It takes a long time to earn that money, pay tax on it and save it so I would suggest don’t open your position to that risk. Either contact me today via email at hse@currencies.co.uk or on the normal telephone number.

Thank you,

Steve Eakins

 

www.currencies.co.uk – Change money with Foreign Currency

EUR Strength Following BoE Minutes

The EUR continued to strengthen against GBP during Wednesday’s trading, following another busy day of economic data in the UK. This morning the Bank of England released their monthly minutes and despite no indication that their would be a further interest rate cut, talk of Quantitative Easing was high on the agenda. Whilst the decision was made not to introduce another round of QE imminently, many of the members agreed that it was ‘highly likely’ we would see further monetary stimulus over the coming months. In fact one member felt their was a strong case to introduce this immediately, a clear sign that leading decision makers believe that our economy is still very fragile and will need further support on its road to recovery.

This could have been a factor in today’s EUR strength and at time of writing the EUR was pushing to break back through the 1.24 barrier, after being closer to 1.25 at the start of the day. As I’ve alluded to in my previous blogs I always felt the Pound was over-valued against its euro counterpart, due to the deep rooted fiscal deficiencies in the eurozone and public perception regarding the region. Following Mario Draghi’s commitment to the long-term future of the single currency we have seen the EUR fight back and with UK retail sale figures expected to be down tomorrow, a move back towards 1.2350 could be on the cards.

This market uncertainty can be difficult to digest, especially if you have an upcoming property purchase or sale and are looking to transfer funds but are worried that market movements will ultimately leave you short changed. Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have multiple contract types all tailored specifically towards our clients needs. One of our most popular types is our forward contract, which allows you to lock in an exchange rate even if you do not have the full funds available. This is perfect for anyone looking to eliminate risk from the market but still take advantage of our award winning rates. If you would like more information please contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or on 01494 787 478.

www.currencies.co.uk – Change money with Foreign Currency

Will GBPEUR get to 1.30? – Why today is an Important day for GBPEUR

To address the lack of growth and jobs in the economy the Bank of England has used Quantitative Easing to provide a shot in the arm. Also known as printing money QE generally has a negative effect on the currency concerned. With mixed but generally negative tones being set for the pound by economic data releases more QE seems inevitable and this morning we may see some indicators as to when this may be.

DATAWATCH – Bank of England Minutes 09.30 am TODAY

Today we find out the minutes from the September Bank of England Interest Rate setting meeting. Today will provide insight as to how many MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) members voted (or didn’t vote) for QE. If you have a transaction involving the pound this morning could be crucial. To avoid disappointment speak to me today on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.

Will GBPEUR get to 1.30?

Anyone with an interest in GBPEUR will have noticed the rate fall significantly in the last 8 weeks. From a high of 1.2860 the rate has fallen over 5 cents to the low point seen last week of 1.2330. The rate came back above 1.24 yesterday on renewed Spanish banking fears but for the time being the best levels appear to have passed.
We have been warning clients the rate was likely to drop and this makes this morning’s data even more important. Even with the on-going uncertainty in Europe the recent good news for the Euro means it is unlikely we will see a return to the best levels seen this year.
GBPEUR is still trading at the 3 and a half year highs touched this Summer and with the uncertainty still ahead for the UK and the pound I feel this represents a great buying opportunity. All too often GBPEUR has bombed in recent years following poor UK data and returning confidence for the single currency. I think we are in such a situation again and would not be surprised to see a move towards the 1.20 mark soon. Anyone who missed out trading at rates in the 1.25-1.27 range could very easily soon be kicking themselves for not having traded when rates were at 1.23-1.25 as well.
Whilst I personally think the rate will slowly fall, Spanish banks were again in the news yesterday. Eurozone horror stories will undoubtedly pepper headlines, but on balance Mario Draghi’s confirmation the ‘Euro is Irreversible’ and his intent to do ‘everything to preserve’ it, means for me 1.30 is well out of the question and 1.20 will I believe be the next key milestone. To avoid disappointment whatever your requirements make an enquiry with us as we will get you a much better exchange rate and service.

Sterling strength or will it continue to fall, buyers beware!

As we reach the end of the month there are a few key data releases due that will drive GBPEUR rates this week. This includes CPI data
this morning which is expected to fall. Bank of England minutes tomorrow expected to be seen as negative and retail figures later in the week also expected to fall. So readers will probably come to the same conclusion as myself quite easily. If you are a buyer it may be wise to buy sooner rather than later if needed in the next week.

In the longer term the over shadowing story from Europe still lingers on. In summary concerns were very high a few weeks ago that Europe would fail. Greece would leave and there would be a run on the Spanish banks making them bankrupt within days, with the rest of Europe in  toe. This has been avoided however Spanish borrowing costs were still high. As a result they signed off, the ECB, a bond buying programme to increase demand for Spanish bonds pushing them down in price, releasing pressure on Spain.  This was offered and has gone through the German courts to confirm it as a possibility, however Spain are yet to call on it – Why not?

Well the reason for that is a condition of taking them will be austerity cuts and this is what many are thinking are being negotiated behind closed doors at the moment. So risks are high that at any point they could confirm that they are taking the bailout. I would expect this to increase confidence HUGELY in the euro and make it a lot more expensive. This is the over shadowing concern for any EURO BUYERS.  If you are in this situation I would be very very wary. Make sure you have limited your exposure with Limit or Stop loss orders – if you have not and would like more information contact us today and ask the question. We offer a no cost service that traditionally saves clients between 2%-4% when compared to the bank. What have you got to lose????

Contact us today on the normal number or feel free to email me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk

Thank you,

Steve Eakins

Sterling Euro Exchange Rate Forecast – ‘The Euro is Irreversible’

It now looks  unlikely we will see any kind of comeback on GBPEUR in the short term. As the Fed’s QE move backed up with ECB firepower has lifted confidence to previously unexpected levels. The wave of confidence sweeping financial markets has dramatically weakened the USD, which has seen a big move on EURUSD and caused the big moves we have seen on GBPEUR.

It is therefore unlikely we will see a return to the previous levels seen on GBPEUR with such a wave of confidence in place. To quote Mario Draghi, ‘The Euro is Irreversible’. The outlook therefore is one of positivity for the Euro, not one in which the Euro will simply diminish or indeed vanish.

The Eurozone is moving towards greater integration and unity which many analysts and commentators have stated is key to the long term stability of the Euro currency. The uncertainty that plagued markets has for the time being been put to the back of the shelf.

If you are planning a transfer involving GBPEUR rates, movement in the last week indicates how unpredictable the markets can be. If you have a transfer to consider why not make a free enquiry as we are confident we can save you money.

Please feel free to contact the author direct on jmw@currencies.co.uk

UK Unemployment Figures Fall but Sterling’s Struggle Continues

UK unemployment figures were released yesterday and showed a small drop in the three months leading up to July, compared with the previous three month period. The drop of 7,000 to 2.59 million has done little to halt GBPs worrying slide against the euro and following Germany’s ruling to approve the European Stability Mechanism, things seem as if they may only get worse. It must be remembered that it was only a matter of weeks ago that we were experiencing the four year highs on GBP/EUR but I always felt Sterling was over-valued against the single currency and this spike back was, in my opinion always likely. There was never any real confidence in our own economy and only the deep rooted fiscal deficiencies across the eurozone, kept rates at what now seems like dizzy heights.

I still believe these levels represent good buying opportunities, even though there may be disappointment that we have fallen away from the four year highs. It is worth remembering that the currency markets are forever evolving and these current levels may not be around for long, if indeed the euro does continue its fightback. On the other side of the coin anyone holding euro and expecting rates to continue down to 1.20 should heed recent history, as we have been here before (although it is fair to say not in the same capacity) and been left disappointed.

I feel we are at a crossroads with a move towards 1.22-1.23 likely if there are no more ‘nasty surprises’ from EU leaders. However, if the on-going problems in Spain and Greece are not resolved then it is feasible we will see GBP strengthen again and a move towards 1.27 is not out of the question. Anyone with an upcoming GBP/EUR requirement should be following events in Europe and the UK closer than usual and keep in close contact with your personal currency broker, so that you can be reactive to any market movements and not miss an opportunity that may present itself.

This market uncertainty can be difficult to digest, especially if you have an upcoming property purchase or sale and are looking to transfer funds but are worried that market movements will ultimately leave you short changed. Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have multiple contract types all tailored specifically towards our clients needs. One of our most popular types is our forward contract, which allows you to lock in an exchange rate even if you do not have the full funds available. This is perfect for anyone looking to eliminate risk from the market but still take advantage of our award winning rates. If you would like more information and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or on 00 44 1494 787 478.

What is happening on GBPEUR? Are you really getting the best deal for your GBPEUR transfers?

Rates have slowly moved down from the high of 1.2860 seen a couple of months ago and are trading around 1.25 at present. As we predicted it was unlikely the rate would just keep climbing indefinitely and anyone who was holding out expecting to hit 1.30 should probably adjust their expectations in the short term.

With all of the problems for the pound, it is unlikely that we will see sterling make a major resurgence and instead we are relying on Euro weakness. With so much recent Euro positive  news for the time being it looks like the Euro will remain stronger against the pound.

The German Constitutional Court ruling today has effectively paved the way for further Euro strength as it allows German taxpayer funds to be used to fund bailout schemes in Europe. A potential banana skin could be the Dutch elections which take place today. The election battle has been fought over austerity and some view the election as a direct challenge to the Dutch membership of the Euro.

If I was buying Euros I would not really be hanging around hoping for improvements. The current market is in a downward trend and I would not be suprised to see this drop closer to the 1.22-1.23 time. For that reason Euro sellers for GBP may wish to hold back and see what happens towards the end of the week. With the US Federal Reserve Bank holding their interest rate meeting today we could see movement on EURUSD which would affect GBPEUR.

If you have any currency transfers to consider please feel free to speak with me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478. I have never been beaten on an exchange rate and will do everything I can to win your business.

The week ahead – euro bond market

As regular readers will now the tide in Europe has been changing and a more positive tone has been introduced. Originally from commentary by the Central bank stating that everything will be done to keep the Euro. We all now know that this is thought the creation of a bond buying program. The speculation for this program is one of the main reasons why exchange rates have changed so much. The Euro has improved by 2.5% in nearly 3 weeks as a result.

The next stage of this is Wednesday which the day the markets are expecting them to start. They are buying 3 year bonds in Spain, Italy and Greece. All these bond yields should drop as a result which will further evaporate the concern about a bailout being needed. I personally would be very surprised if we did not see the euro gain as a result. This will make it more expensive for Euro buyers and is another opportunity for any Euro sellers reading this.

The change expected could result in as much as a 2 cent change making a €2,000 difference for each £100,000 transferred. Other data this week to watch is UK Trade figures tomorrow and UK Unemployment also due on Wednesday. From the Europeans we also have Consumer and Jobless figures both on Friday.

If you need to complete an exchange or would like to make sure you are getting the best price, contact us today. Even to compare your current provider. Either call me on the normal number or email me at hse@currencies.co.uk

Thank you,

Steve Eakins

ECB Bond-Buying Plan Strengthen’s the Euro Amid Another Bad Day for the Pound

The Pound suffered further loses against the euro during Thursday’s trading, capping off what can only be considered as a miserable week for Sterling. The single currency has made gains of almost 2 cents since Monday, or to put it in monetary terms, an additional £2,500 in your pocket on a 200,000 EUR/GBP transfer. This is a market reaction to yesterday’s announcement by ECB president Mario Draghi, who discussed a new government bond-buying scheme, aimed at protecting the EU and its single currency from suffering the kind of fall outs we have seen in major European economies such as Spain and Greece over the past year. This announcement, coupled with a poor run of economic data in the UK has finally tipped market sentiment in favour of the euro. Long overdue I hear them cry!

Personally I feel anyone looking to buy euro should consider their positions. I do believe we will see resistance at 1.25 but judging by today’s movement that barrier could be broken over the coming days. I would also heed a word of caution if I were holding euro, as we have heard positive statements before without little action or back up.

This market uncertainty can be difficult to digest, especially if you have an upcoming property purchase or sale and are looking to transfer funds but are worried that market movements will ultimately leave you short changed. Here at
Foreign Currency Direct plc we have multiple contract types all tailored specifically towards our clients needs. One of our most popular types is our forward contract, which allows you to lock in an exchange rate even if you do
not have the full funds available. This is perfect for anyone looking to eliminate risk from the market but still take advantage of our award winning rates. If you would like more information please contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Euro Exchange Rate Forecast

The current climate is one of great uncertainty due to the real lack of solutions being offered in the debt crisis. Mario Draghi’s attempts to lower borrowing costs is purely symbolic. It is not a measure that itself will create growth in Spain and Italy, or indeed Greece.

How can the Euro be fixed? A wide range of measures need to be committed to and undertaken to really restore confidence in the Euro and quite frankly I just cannot see this happening anytime soon. The Euro looks to be in real dangerous territory and this is not just affecting the Euro currency, but also the global economy.

So how can I make sure I do not suffer or indeed how I can benefit in such a market? The answer is easy, speak to one of the team here at GBPEURO. We are a team of currency brokers whose job it is to get our clients the very best exchange rates form the markets. We can beat all of the high street banks and other sources of currency because we buy at a very sharp commercial exchange rate.

We can save about 4%versus a typical bank transaction which may not sound like much, but this equates to 400 GBP on every 10000 GBP transferred saved. Still sound like not much? For international transfers where clients have budgets to stick to, movement on exchange rates can cause tragic headaches. Trading currency is almost a type of informed gambling since no one (even the most savvy investor) can predict what will happen.

Because of the uncertainty any extra assistance you can get to guide you through the confusing field of foreign exchange is worthwhile. If you have any currency transfers to consider why not find out for free if you could save money by speaking to me. If you would like to find out more information please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478

Euro interest rates dropping??

GBPEUR rates continued to fall yesterday as rumours spread that the Europeans could lower their interest rate further in an effort to boost growth. As regular readers will know, Europe’s banking crises seems to be getting worse, not better. This all after over 4 years of plans and discussions nothing significant has been released that has changed its fate. Only last week members from Moodys (international credit rating firm,) said that the Eurozone crises “is at best only half way through.” Bond markets, which are a barometer of confidence in a countries outlook, have also been climbing in both Spain and Italy. It was down to these two factors that rates pushed to a fresh highs a few weeks ago.

Tomorrow we have a number of Bond sales in Europe that will give us a better idea on the new market confidence being talked about. Both of which are expected to fall which as a result could give euro sellers an opportunity to take a better price. Reactions to the sale will be shown in the currency market within minutes so make sure you are in a position to take advantage if you are in that situation – Contact us today or email me at hse@currencies.co.uk

In summary if I was selling euros I would hold fire and jump ship tomorrow, if I was buying this week I limit risk and buy today.  The data due within the next 24 hours  could easily move markets and I would expect no less than a cent movement in either way, probably in the favour of euro sellers! This would make a difference of £850 for every £100,000 exchanged.

For a more focussed strategy for your situation feel free to contact us and we can happily give you some pointers on when to potentially complete your exchange.

Call us on 01494 787 478 to talk this through if it is of interest or email me at hse@currencies.co.uk

Thank you,

Steve Eakins

Olympic Effect Harms UK Retail Sales but How Will This Influence GBP/EUR Exchange Rates?

Sterling has made gains against its euro counterpart during Tuesday’s trading, following the release of today’s UK PMI Service sector figures and Thursday’s crucial ECB meeting. As touched upon in previous blogs September could well prove to be a pivotal month for the GBP/EUR currency pair, as the markets await the crucial next move by EU leaders. The problem investors currently face is trying to dissect the economic data being released in the UK and Europe, both of which have been relatively poor and certainly inconsistent. The UK is struggling to pull itself out of recession, whilst Europe is still blighted by debt ridden economies and the perceived lack of a long-term fiscal strategy. This market uncertainty can be difficult to digest, especially if you have an upcoming property purchase or sale and are looking to transfer funds but are worried that market movements will ultimately leave you short changed. Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have multiple contract types all tailored specifically towards our clients needs. One of our most popular types is our forward contract, which allows you to lock in an exchange rate even if you do not have the full funds available. This is perfect for anyone looking to eliminate risk from the market but still take advantage of our award winning rates. If you would like more information please contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Today we have seen both positive and negative UK data and this in itself seems to be a running theme and also a major headache for any analyst trying to forecast the currency pair! UK retail sale figures were down due to the Olympics but PMI Service sector figures improved and in my opinion until we see some consistency in this data, rumours of further contraction will continue to create market uncertainty and potential problems for the Pound. Unfortunately anyone holding euro and expecting this uncertainty surrounding the UK economy to benefit them, may ultimately be left disappointed. The problems in Europe in my opinion are one of the main factors in GBP rates remaining relatively high, despite our poor economic data and weak growth forecasts. However, the 2 cent movement we have seen for the single currency away from its 4 year lows against the Pound should certainly be considered a positive, especially when many were predicting it was only a matter of time until the 1.30 barrier was broken.

Personally I feel resistance Euro resistance will be met at 1.25 and any hoeps of Sterling breaking back through 1.27 rely on further doubts being cats over the long-term future of certain European economies, following Thursdays European Central Bank meeting. To put it in monetary terms a £200,000 GBP/EUR transfer today at the high compared to the low would have been an additional EUR 1,940 in your pocket and another reason it is essential to be in regular contact with your currency broker during these unpredictable times.

If you do have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or on 01494 787 478 and open your free, no obligation trading account.

What can we expect on GBPEUR this week? When to buy or sell Euros

Knowing when to buy your currency is one of the most important issues surrounding a currency transfer. Have you made provisions for what could turn out to be a very volatile month on the GBPEUR rate?

Today we have the all important Purchasing Managers Index data. These are a snapshot of the performance of the UK economy and normally affect short term movements. With all of the headlines focusing on problems in Europe it is easy to forget the dire situation that the UK is in. We are in the midst of a double dip recession and growth figures for the future are still being slashed. That makes me think that it is going to take longer and longer for the UK to recover, and hence it will take longer and longer for the pound to stage a solid recovery. In this current market there are more risks of the rate deteriorating than improving.

Later this week we have the all important UK and ECB Interest Rate decisions on Thursday. This is a very important date for the diary of anyone looking at GBPEUR or EURGBP. There is an expectation that we could see the ECB announce some kind of bond buying measures which would ease the debt burden of Spain and Italy. Mario Draghi and co have certainly been hinting at this in recent weeks and the meeting will without doubt attract attention.

I would personally be ready to move ahead of this decision on Thursday to try to limit any losses and maximise any gains. The gamble on exchange rates is doing nothing as the rate moves every few seconds for a wide variety of reasons. If you have any currency transactions to consider I can help make you aware of all of your options so that you can make an informed decision on when to trade and ensure you get a much better deal.

My name is Jonathan Watson and I can be reached on 01494 787 478, or why not email on jmw@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you