Monthly Archives: November 2012

GBPEUR Forecast 30th November

Moving into the end of the month we see lots to cause volatility on exchange rates. Recently the Euro has strengthened on the back of renewed hopes for Europe. However whilst the debt crisis is being tackled we are a very long way from a solution. Therefore the uncertainty as to which direction the crisis will take in the coming days, weeks and months will cause movement on the rates.

Tomorrow is month end and we often see a fair amount of movement on the month end as investors take profits and settle positions. This can cause unexpected swings which cause market moves against expectations. This theme is also common on a Friday so tomorrow could really provide some good buying and selling opportunities for anyone considering a transfer now or in the future.

Looking at the data we have a range of Eurozone releases, the most important for me are German Retail Sales and the Eurozone Unemployment rate. Unemployment has slowly been creeping up for Europe and I do not think a deterioration will be a major market mover although the door is certainly open to Euro weakness. The positive tones of the Greek news earlier this week are fairly fragile and some bad news for Europe could easily open up a buying spike.

The potentially huge news of the day is a vote in the German parliament, the Bundestag on Greek aid. The vote which is another stepping stone in the latest round of negotiation is expected to be passed off without a hitch but there is the possibility of Euro weakness as it reminds investors of the scale of the problems ahead.

I expect the Euro to lose ground as investors sell off positions due to the confidence which the Euro has been enjoying lately wearing thin.

All in all tomorrow promises to be a very volatile day which could throw up some excellent trading options. For a free, no obligation discussion of everything that may move your rate feel free to contact me directly on or call 01497 787 478.


Sterling Rises Following First Revison UK GDP Figures

Sterling has performed well against its euro counterpart during Tuesday’s trading, following the first revison of the UK’s recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. These figures were expected to show that the UK economy grew by 0.9% during Q3 of this year. They actually came in slightly better than expected at 1%, which could be a major factor behind today’s positive movement.

An increase in consumer spending, the highest figure in two years along with the ‘Olympic effect’, were seen as key reasons for this economic growth and by close of European trading GBP was pushing 1.24 against the EUR. Once again today’s movment proves that forecasting on GBP/EUR rates has become increasingly difficult, due to the inconsistency of recent UK economic data and the lack of market confidence in the euro, or the regions ability to break free from its current recession.

The EUR had been making some headway against GBP over recent days and those holding euro would have been boyed by this mornings announcement that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had reached an agreement with Eurozone finance ministers over a further bailout for Greece. Unfortunately for those individuals the current governor of the Bank of England Sir Mervyn King (who will be replaced by current governor of the Canadian central bank Mark Carney), claimed today that the ‘risk from the eurozone had grown’ and that it was these problems that were behind the Bank of England’s recent pessimism regarding UK growth forecasts for 2013/14. This news seemed to sap market confidence in the EUR, which steadily lost value against GBP during Tuesdays trading.

The cold truth of it is that the UK’s long-term prosperity is very much interlinked with the welfare of the eurozone, who lets not forget are our largets trading partners.  Until we expand our trading capacity beyond Europe, we are going to be reliant on the eurozone pulling itslef free from recession.

Sterling found resistance at 1.24 today, with the EUR struggling to break through 1.23 during its recent spike. I believe the currecny pair will be rangebound between 1.23-1.25 in the build-up to Christmas, so feel free to drop me an email at to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements and to ensure you do not miss any spike in the market as and when it does occur.

This market uncertainty not only creates issues for high end investors but also anyone looking to move funds for a foreign property purchase, or indeed those looking to repatriatise their funds into the UK following a sale. We have over twelve years experience of navigating the currency markets and providing over 45,000 clients with award winning rates of exchange and customer service. If you would like to find out what rates we can offer, or have any market queries, then please feel free to contact em directly at or call me on 01494 787 478.

Market views and forecast this week (Steve Eakins)

As we enter the last week of the month regular traders and readers will know that the driving forces in the markets slightly change.  For a majority of the month it is economic data and what it shows that changes the prices of currencies as countries performances change. However this data is normally reporting on the previous month or months so is released at the beginning of the month.  At this point of the month political commentary and risk appetite change the markets. These are two events that are very difficult to forecast and we traditionally find ourselves being reactive to any news.  As a result if you need to move money internationally this week you really need to watch the markets all day.  If you can’t feel free to utilise our service, we can be your eyes and ears on the market for you keeping you up to date on any breaking news. Plus with award winning exchange rates you can feel comfortable that we will also be able to save you money compared to your current provider.

So what will move the markets this week?

The largest event this week is again in Brussels as financial ministers sit down once more to try and finalise Greece’s next lump of funds, plus fill the €15 billion hole in their finances after giving them a 2 year extension to pay back what they have borrowed already. This I would expect the strengthen the euro later in the week and hurt any Euro buyers if they have not locked in before.

Other news that has broken over the weekend is news that Cyprus is officially the 5th member of the EU asking for a bailout.  The figure they need is something along the lines of €15 billion which relatively small in comparison to the overall EU budget of €1.1 trillion but as it’s a quite week with little economic data this may have a larger effect on currency prices than you would expect.

Again this week if you need to move funds, keep an active eye on the market as the best prices will probably only be around for hours not days.  If you are looking to trade this week and have funds ready to move,
feel free to register your interest HERE to be updated when rates move.

Thank you,

Steve Eakins

Elite Trader

Markets Stay Flat Following Bank of England Minutes (Matthew Vassallo)

Those wishing to make a GBP/EUR trade would have been keeping a close eye on the release of this morning’s Bank of England minutes. These minutes provide an insight into the most recent BoE meeting, where decisions over interest rates and further monetary assistance, or Quantitiative Easing (QE) as it is often referred to are made. We already knew that no further QE had been introduced this month but we did not know how many members, if any voted for it.

The minutes indicated an 8-1 vote in favour of no QE this month. This means that one member did in fact feel it was necessary and felt a further 25bn should be injected to stand alongside the 375bn already spent. There was also a debate over the effectiveness of QE when it has been introduced, although it was recognised in the previous meeting that further injections over the coming months were ‘more likely than not’. We did see Sterling spike this morning, although these gains were slowly eroded over the rest of Wednesdays

In Europe there were further problems for Greece, who it had been anticipated would receive further funds to assist with their repayment targets. This week’s meeting between the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank did not go as planned as an agreement could not be reached and the markets reacted to this with the euro losing value over the first part of the day’s trading.

Here at FCD we have various contract types all tailored specifically towards our client’s needs, so for more information please contact me directly at or call us today on 0044 1494 787 478 or visit and sign up to  your free, no obligation trading account.

Greece on the ropes (Steve Eakins)

GBPEUR rates have climbed slightly after talks by the European Central bank (ECB) regarding the next tranche of Greek support failed.  The release of the much needed funds have been delayed for potentially another 7 days adding strain to a country already on the ropes and looking for a way to leave Europe.  As a result the euro has weakened creating a buying opportunity for clients looking to buy. (Feel free to read more on how this could change markets here)

We also had this morning the release from the central bank in England with information on their interest rate decision two weeks ago.  They voted 8-1 for no change to the Quantitative Easing program that has seen hundreds of billions of pound being injected into the struggling UK economy.  Many were expecting this as the UK government was injected with the interest which was made from the QE program over the last few years.
It also makes it very probable that no more extensions will be announced until the New Year.

If you are buying euros in the near future please do let us know, here we provide a proactive service that helps save you money on the transfer you have to make. Register your interest via email at or feel free to callus on the normal number.

Thank you,

Steve Eakins

Elite Trader

How will data releases affect GBP/EUR? (Alistair)

Yesterday we saw the Euro strengthen due to rumours that Greece would receive further funding to ease their monetary problems. GBP/EUR rates hit a low of 1.2414 throughout yesterday, pushing the 1.24 mark and are currently remaining around these figures today. This week we will see some important data releases with regards to GBP/EUR rates and we could see quite a bit of pressure put on the two currencies depending on the decisions and announcements made. Tomorrow we will see the release of the Bank of England minutes and on Thursday the EU leaders summit kicks off.

When The Bank of England minutes are released tomorrow it will show exactly how many members voted for and against another round of QE (Quantitative Easing). If these minutes show any sign that we could see another round of QE then this could have a negative effect on the Pound and push these rates down even further, however if this data shows that no members thought that further QE was necessary then this could help the Pound strengthen, with QE in the near future very unlikely. The EU leaders summit on Thursday should shed a bit more light on the situation surrounding Greece and other Euro zone members. If the rumours are true and there is an announcement that Greece will receive further funding then we could see the Euro strengthen even more against Sterling with investors seeking to cash in on a slightly stronger Euro zone economy.

If you would like to speak with one of our specialist currency brokers regarding any currency requirements that you may have or for our expert opinion on market movements then please contact the dealing floor directly on 01494 725 353, alternatively Email Alistair at


GBPEUR rates (Steve Eakins)

The cost of buying euros this week has fallen giving opportunities for sellers.  The reason why is the deteriorating view on the UK economy as figures have continually disappointed investors this week.  The two main releases were of a dramatic fall in UK retail figures and a large drop in the forecast for growth in the UK by the Bank of England.

At the end of of October I actually predicted the contract :

“Data this month has been great for the pound but most have been “artificially” improved by one off events, like hosting the Olympics and the Jubilee earlier in the year. Next month these will not as bigger factor and as a result I expect, like many, figures to be weaker in comparison and creating GBP weakness.”

(You can read my full blog here.)

So will Sterling continue to fall?

I personally think it really could, especially next week.  There is still more information due this month which will probably still show a fall for the same reasons.  The fall could happily move markets by over 2% costing clients with ill-timed transfers almost £3,000 on a €200,000 purchase. So if you have a need to move money internationally, or bring funds back to the UK, feel free to contact us. We provide a service saving our client’s money with key information and a number of tools to capture rates. Contact us on the normal number or me personally at

I hope this helps and look forward to hearing from you,

Steve Eakins

Elite trader

Foreign Currency Direct PLC

Eurozone in a recession again (Steve Eakins)

Data today from Europe showed that the single state’s economy shrank for two continues quarters for the first time in 3 years . Meaning the Eurozone is in a recession once more.  Many clients of ours are scratching their heads though as today the euro has strengthened against both sterling and the dollar.  The main reason behind this is that other news has been released that have been more surprising including bad news from the UK economy and worries with regards to the US fiscal cliff.

From the UK there we had 2 disappointing announcements, firstly a big fall in UK Retail figures and secondly news that the highly valued AAA credit rating was against at risk. Both of these were expected but the Retail figures were worse than expected and the review of the AAA rating was announced earlier than hoped. So we find ourselves this afternoon in a situation where the GBPEUR rates have fallen by nearly 1½
cents in just 36 hours

This again highlights how timing a transfer can save you money! Over the last 36 hours if you were buying €200,000 you could have saved £2,000 simply by getting your timing right. Over the next week we have a host of information being released that could easily make that difference again including Greek crunch talks, Fiscal cliff meetings and key bond auctions across Europe.  If you are looking for more information about how to time your trade and maximise your exchange we can help. Contact me either at or on the normal telephone number.

Thank you.

Steve Eakins

Eurozone in Recession – GBPEUR rates stabilise (Jonathan)

The market has dipped quite comfortably back below the magic 1.25 level as the Bank of England cut their growth forecast and the Euro found favour following successful bond auctions for Germany and Italy. Retail Sales for the UK came out worse than expected which also increased pressure on the pound.

For the time being it is difficult to see where a revival towards the 1.25 mark will stem from. However I am of the opinion it will do so. The current outlook in Europe is just as worrying as ever and whilst we all expected the Eurozone would officially return to recession today, it does not undermine the significance of such an announcement.

With the Eurozone economies shrinking the problems faced will surely only deteriorate. The ECB looks to me more and more out of control. I therefore predict that it is only a matter of time before we see the Euro start to lose ground. The chance of further gains against sterling look hampered although the pound has been digging it’s own grave quite spectacularly this week.

For up to date information and analysis on the events moving your exchange rate please feel free t get in touch directly. My name is Jonathan and I work as a specialist currency broker for both private clients and individuals. I can offer the very best rates, much better than the banks or other sources. I can also offer forecasts specific to your requirements to help you make an informed decision on when to trade.

Please feel free to get in touch directly or call 01494 787 478

Greek bailout delayed (Steve Eakins)

Following the late vote earlier this week by the Greek parliament for additional cuts, the expectation was that the European Central Bank would simply release the next tranche of funding, however this has not been the case.  The central bank came out saying that it would wait until the next report on how well the Greek economy is doing and the savings that have been made before allowing the payment to be released.  The report they mentioned is due at the end of the month and put Greece back at risk of running out of money. It it this breaking news this morning that created euro weakness and pushed GBPEUR rates up to a 5 week high!

Earlier today we also had both French and Swedish industrial productivity data, which both came in under expectation.  Generally over this week data and European politics have been adding to speculation that Europe’s economic outlook is worsening.  This all on a the week that the European Central bank has the chance to announce changes and extra stimulus at the Interest rate decision yesterday.  The fact that they did not I think is a little disappointing and is yet another reason why the Euro has weakened.

In news from the other side of the world, China released better than expected industrial production and retail figures.  This boosted the export  outlook for the south Pacific nations and increased the value of both the NZD and AUD.

So what is expected in the near future and when should I trade?

Next week we have a host of data expected and all of which has the potential to change exchange rates.  Here in the UK we have our own productivity figures released on Tuesday along with Unemployment figures on Tuesday. Plus a very important Quarterly Inflation report from the Bank of England.  It all adds up to a busy day on Tuesday that could easily move markets by a few percent.  This in turn could add thousands to any bill if the market moves against you, of cause it could also potentially save you that amount too.  Here we have the forecasts and expectations for each which allows us to help if you are looking at completing a currency transfer.

So if you have a need to move money internationally, or bring funds back to the UK, feel free to contact us.  We provide a service saving our client’s money with key information and a number of tools to capture rates. Contact us on the normal number or me personally at

I hope this helps and look forward to hearing from you,

Steve Eakins

Elite trader

Foreign Currency Direct PLC

Trade Balance figures will be a focus for the UK today (Jonny Watson)

Trade Balance is the difference between imports and exports for a country. It is a good indicator of the performance of an economy. If there is a surplus it means more money is coming into the country than leaving and hence gives the economy more strength. The UK has been running a trade deficit for many years so we know it will be negative. Quite importantly the UK’s trade deficit has been increasing over the last few months and is expected to here.

It will be interesting to see if the growth we saw in GDP data is reflected in the Trade Balance figures as this will give a clearer picture of a more generally positive tone for the UK. The GDP figures and the lack of a any QE yesterday should ensure the pound is reasonably well supported, but a wider than expected trade balance will hamper any gains.

Across the Channel this morning we have a raft of Industrial Production data for the Eurozone which has so far shown a sharper than expected fall in France (down to -2.7% versus the -1.0% expectation) but there is more data due.

With the Dollar finding strength following the election I would not be surprised to see more funds flow out of the Euro into the Dollar. President Obama is due to speak later today and this could effect movements on EURUSD which often affects GBPEUR.

All in all today I expect GBPEUR to slowly creep up this morning maybe to 1.2550 depending on how bad the trade balance figures are. And I would not be surprised to see 1.26 by the end of the day.

Anyone selling Euros looking slightly further ahead may wish to wait until the Bank of England Minutes later this month where we will see the voting pattern of the members in yesterday’s interest rate decision.

For further information on how to approach your transaction and secure the very best rates please contact me directly Jonathan Watson on 01494 787 478 or email

No change in interest rates in the UK or Eurozone (Stephen Hughes)

Today, the Bank of England announced that it has kept the interest rate at 0.5%. It also revealed that it will not yet be increasing QE from the current level of £375bn.

As Sterling typically responds to constancy, we expect to see a rise against many of the major currencies following the Bank of England’s decision to hold the current interest rate at 0.5%.

Yet more significantly for Sterling, the Bank of England revealed that it still has no plans to increase QE, which should provide the Pound with an extra boost in the short term.  However, it is widely believed that further QE will have to be enforced before the end of the year, and given QE has been known to cause weakness to currency, Sterling’s strength could well be short lived.

Across the Channel European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the euro zone economy shows little sign of recovering before the year-end despite easing financial market conditions, he added that the ECB cannot do much more to help Greece with its debt burden and gave Spain none of the assurance it wants that ECB bond buying will lower its borrowing costs.

This blow to the debt ridden nations could cause uncertainty in the Eurozone and as such an increase in GBPEUR rates. We are currently not far short of the 4 year highs seen earlier this year and if you, like me, are not one to look a gift horse in the mouth, this might be the time to consider locking into exchange rates for the future using forward contracts.

For more information about the tools we have to manage your exchange rate risk or even if you would like more insight into the markets feel free to email me directly at


Greek austerity helps the euro (Steve Eakins)

After another few weeks of concerns that Greece will fail to hit budget reform targets, another vote took place last night.  The strikes and riots that also took place as a result were some of the most violent that we have seen.  Many have commented that it is surprising to think that there are any more austerity cuts that can be made in Greece, but by a slim margin a new round of cuts were voted in by parliament.  This most recent round authorises a further €14 billion of cuts and as a result should release their next tranche of support from the EU of around €31 billion.  The cuts will include further wage cuts, tax rises and a change in the law to make it easier for companies to reduce their staff numbers.

(The vote was expected to take place yesterday afternoon but due to parliament workers realising could receive wage cuts due to the vote they joined the strikers outside delaying the voters till late evening.)

So how does this affect exchange rates?

Following the announcement we saw the euro gain strength, making it more expensive for people to buy the single currency.  However we have to remember that Greece only equates for 1.8% of the GDP for the whole euro zone, so unless concerns build to a point that risks them staying in the Euro, I think they will only change markets marginally. But is this a possibility? Well potentially, as their debt to GDP level is still expected to be over 180%, well above targets set there is the potential to force them out, but personally I think that this strategy for Greece is long gone, too much money has been spent. So if you have a euro exposure, either buying or selling, keep an eye out on future events in Greece as it will move markets but I would be surprised to see anything larger than 0.5% unless its news that they are leaving the single currency.

At the end of the day no one can tell you what the markets are going to do, but hopefully my commentary above gives you some food for thought?

Next on the horizon for Euro traders is the interest rate decision for both Europe and the UK which takes place later today. These could easily move the market by 1.5%,  potentially costing you an extra £3,750 on a €200,000 transfer! So if you need to move in the near future I would suggest you review your strategy.

If you are looking at completing an currency exchange and are looking for the best exchange rate, feel free to contact us here. We have been helping people for over 12 years, simply put if we could not save you money we would not exist.

Thank you,

Steve Eakins

GBP/EUR rates hit one month high (Alistair)

Sterling rose to a one month high against the Euro yesterday, with rates rising to 1.2534. Weaker than expected German industrial output and decreased growth forecasts from the EU commission had a negative effect on the Euro with European Central Bank president Mario Draghis  statement saying that the bank expected the Euro zone economy to remain weak in the short term also being a large factor in the euro falling to its lowest level since October 1st. This statement decreased investors confidence in the Euro and forced them to look elsewhere for a safer option.

Today will see the announcement from the Bank of England interest rate decision and also the UK will find out the decision on QE (Quantitative Easing). It is widely expected that QE will not go ahead, which has strengthened Sterling, but should this be pursued we could quickly see a negative effect on GBP rates as there would be a large increase in the supply of Sterling, making it more readily available and subsequently lowering its value against other currencies.

If you have any questions regarding these topics or would like to speak to one of our experienced and professional currency brokers today then please call straight through to the dealing floor on 01494 725 353 or alternatively Email Alistair at

Currency markets jittery as US Election draws to a conclusion. Effect on GBP/EUR exchange rates (Mike Vaughan)

Currency markets, as with much of the rest of the world will be eagerly awaiting the result of the US presidential election that will be drawing to a conclusion today. Polls suggest the contest is incredibly close between President Obama and Mitt Romney, but what will the likely affect be to the currency markets? The outcome can be pretty substantial and will always come down to how the market reacts and the confidence or lack of it depending on which party comes into power. Romney, as with many new political leaders, has a number of radical ideas and Obama has a lot of unfinished business. Personally if Obama gets into power I think this will lead to an increase in market confidence and you will see a drive towards riskier currencies, and of the pairing GBP/EUR the Euro is perceived as the riskier of the two and for this reason I would expect to see the Euro exchange rates strengthen against the pound. Should Romney come into power I believe this will create a degree of uncertainty into the market and as a result you may find the reversal for GBP/EUR.

With the uncertainty surrounding the decision anyone with a short term currency requirement involving GBP/EUR may wish to re-assess their position and consider the use of a forward contract to minimise losses. Alternatively through the use of a carefully placed stop/loss contract we can attempt to maximise your position but also limit your exposure. Should you wish to discuss the various contracts we can offer and to run through the service we can provide as a specialist currency broker then please contact myself (Mike Vaughan) on 01494 787478 or email me direct on


Poor UK Service Sector Data Halts Sterling’s Momentum (Matthew Vassallo)

Following the positive response created by the release of the recent UK Gross Domestic Product figures, you could be forgiven for thinking the UK economy had finally turned a corner. Yes we have moved out of recession for the first time in 2012 but today we were given a stark reminder of how fragile our economy still is and confirmation, if it was needed, that we do indeed have a long road to recovery. Today’s UK Service Sector data was the ‘weakest in almost two years’ and has halted GBP’s recent momentum. Rates were pushed back under 1.25, a level that has not been broken for the rest of Monday’s trading.

This market movement came about despite further concerns over Greece, who are currently putting together a new austerity package aimed at cutting a further 13.5bn euro of spending or face bankruptcy and France, who’s leader Francois Hollande  has been urged to cut labour costs to reform its flagging economy.

With concerns surrounding the economic stability of the eurozone likely to continue and the UK economy requiring a consistent run of positive data to back up the recent upturn, I feel the markets could stay fairly flat over the coming days. We are still likely to see spikes in both directions, which could provide both euro buyers and sellers

This market uncertainty can be difficult to digest, especially if you have an upcoming property purchase or sale and are looking to transfer funds but are worried that market movements will ultimately leave you short changed. Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have multiple contract types all tailored specifically towards our client’s needs. One of our most popular types is our forward contract, which allows you to lock in an exchange rate even if you do not have the full funds available. This is perfect for anyone looking to eliminate risk from the market but still take advantage of our award winning rates. If you would like more information please contact me directly at or on 01494 787 478.short-term opportunities for both euro buyers and sellers.


Buying euros opportunity? (Steve Eakins)

GBPEUR rates have rallied today over a month high on the back of better than expected data from the US.  Some are suggesting that the data has been lifted in the run up to the election, but as the data shows a better picture for the US, risk appetite builds.  So traders in the market have been happier to take risk and have been buying riskier currencies.  This change in habits has created strength for the likes of the NZD, AUD and GBP.

In summary this week GBPEUR rates has had a high/low movement of 1%, resulting in an extra cost of over £2,000 on a €200,000 purchase. Even though this sounds like a lot, this week has actually had a smaller FX range than the last 3.  Next week many experts predict a range closer to 2.5%, so anyone with a euro need should note that buying poorly in the next 7 days could cost you an additional £5,000 compared to buying €200,000 well.

Here we actively provide a pro-active service aimed at helping assist our clients do exactly that.  Next week we have a host of data ranging from Interest rate decisions, Quantitative Easing announcement, EU Greek meetings, and Industry figures to name just a few.  So if you are in the currency market please become a regular visitor for free information.  If you would like to experience  our service and why we have been given a number of awards for both our service plus rates of exchange feel free to contact us on the normal number or at

Either way I hope we can help.

Look forward to hearing from you,

Steve Eakins

Sterling hits 1 month high against the Euro

Better than expected UK PMI for Construction has helped the pound reach a one month high against the Euro. This morning’s data is particularly significant because the reading of 50.9, above 50, represents a return to growth in the sector according to the index. The Construction industry has been a real bug bear of the last few  years and this is the highest reading since July. This is also further indicative of a better than expected Q4 which some had predicted could lead to a contraction for the UK.

Greece is also firmly back in the headlines and if a strengthening pound does not worry those selling Euros, Greece certainly should. With more bailout funds due for release and ever thinning patience from Berlin, we could see yet more Euro weakness too. If you are considering any transfers selling Euros I would recommend moving sooner to avoid disappointment. We were recently at a 6 month high for the Euro against the pound and it now appears the tide is turning once again.

For a full no obligation discussion of securing your currency deals at the very best exchange rate please feel free to make contact with one of us on the blog. We will always go that extra mile to make sure you get the very best rate much better than the banks and other sources. My name is Jonny and you can reach me directly on 01494 787 478 or email your questions to