Monthly Archives: December 2012

Christmas Trading Hours – Have you done all of your shopping for Euros and Sterling?!

As a firm of specialist currency brokers we recognise the importance to businesses and private clients of transferring those emergency payments before the New Year. That is why all the staff here at GBPEURO Forecast will be available to assist anyone who still needs to make a payment either early in the New Year or before the New Year.

We will be here and able to facilitate payments on the 24th, 27th, 28th and 31st, resuming again on the 2nd January. These days will be working days with respect to UK banking systems so if you need to get an urgent payment to a supplier or foreign bank account before the New Year we can send the funds same day for you. Not only can we offer quick transfers we also offer excellent customer service and the very best rates of exchange.

GBPEURO has continued to trade lower much to the annoyance of those buying Euros holding out for improvements. Unfortunately it does appear that the rate will continue to trade lower in the future, perhaps we could see 1.20 as early as February on GBPEUR. UK GDP data showed this morning the UK is still struggling to maintain growth in tough conditions. The Bank of England data earlier in the week also emphasised the challenges ahead for the UK and how we were likely to see more QE in the future.

The rates will of course not continue to just drop off in one direction, they will move on a daily basis slightly up or down according to the prevailing sentiment at that time. I am of the firm opinion that the rate will continue to suffer in the short term. So if you still need to buy some more Euros or sterling, even if you are sick and tired of speaking to the banks and currency brokers, there is another option and we encourage you to try it.

If you have any currency transfers to consider I would be very pleased to speak with you to outline just how I can help with a much better exchange rate than the banks. For a free, no obligation discussion of how using our service works and to demonstrate exactly how much we can save, please feel free to get in touch with me personally on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478

Rise in German Business Confidence Certainly Euro Positive (Matthew Vassallo)

A report was released today, which indicated that German business confidence was on the rise. The IFO institutes monthly index showed that confidence rose for a second month in a row in December and this could certainly give the EUR a boost as we move into the New Year.

Germany is well regarded as the linchpin of the eurozone and up until recently its economy had been considered untouchable. Whilst Germany continued to prosper, it was felt that it could provide the necessary protection for the rest of the eurozone. However, Germany’s economic output did start to fall and serious concerns were raised about how the region would survive, should Germany’s economy stall. This is why this news can only be seen as a positive for the eurozone and ultimately the EUR.

This market uncertainty not only creates issues for high end investors, but also for anyone looking to move funds for a foreign property purchase, or indeed those looking to repatriate
their funds into the UK, following a sale. We have over twelve years’ experience of navigating the currency markets and providing over 45,000 clients with award winning rates of exchange and customer service. If you would like to find out what rates we can offer, or have any market queries, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or call us on 00 44 1494 787 478.

GBPEUR Rates Trend Lower – Outlook for Greece Improves

The pound has ebbed lower against the euro today surely due to the lack of confidence in sterling. Problems in Europe have really been brushed under the carpet and to me it looks like the same fears which created a great buying opportunity in the summer are unlikely to return anytime soon.

The Rating’s Agency Standard & Poor has raised its credit rating for Greece from selective default to negative in another show of confidence for the single currency. The rates just continue to keep going in one direction as confidence returns for Europe. Throughout the Eurozone debt crisis we have seen this trend. A wave of confidence sweeps over the markets and rates become much better for Euro sellers. These waves do not last too long however and it is surely only a matter of time before we see things deteriorate again.

Tomorrow we have the Bank of England Minutes for the UK which whilst not expected to show any changes in policy, it will be interesting to see how the members voted. This is one of those monthly events that can catch everyone off guard and is an event I have highlighted to my clients as a potential opportunity to maximise their exchange.

If you have any currency exchanges to consider (maybe you have sold or are buying a property overseas or your business has currency transfers to consider) please feel free to contact me directly for more information on the markets. As well as helping you understand what is happening we can assist with an excellent rate of exchange, up to 5% better than banks. For a free rate comparison or any further information on how we can make your currency exchanges more sensible, please get in touch. jmw@currencies.co.uk 01494 787 478

 

Currency summary for December

Todays Currency Market

Today there are over a dozen economical reports from the UK which could make today one of the busiest day of the week on the FX market. The data includes UK Consumer Price IndexRetail figures, Production Price Index and BOE Quarterly Inflation report.  I personally would expect these releases to show either no change or a fall when compared to last month figures, as a result I think it is a lot more probable that we will see Sterling fall later today. Moving rates by as much as 1% making a €200,000 purchase £1,600 more expensive.

Italian news – GBPEUR rates

The European Union is coming to the end of the year with new fiscal rules for indebted states, a central bank bond-buying program, a permanent bailout fund and a roadmap for tighter banking and fiscal union. All of this positive news has helped the Euro reach the highest price for nearly 6 months.  However this has recently been overshadowed by news from Italian politics which could bring the Euro back down again.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti’s government looks like it is failing and this is adding concern that in 2013 it could fall into its fourth recession in a decade.  A coalition government will probably be created early next year with elections initially scheduled for February 15th. However if Monti does decide not to run for the top job again I think a large amount of confidence will be lost in the Italians financial ability. This could change the strength of the Euro in the oming weeks so story anyone with exposure to the single currency should keep an eye on this story. (To register for updates email hse@currencies.co.uk.)

GBPUSD rates and GBPEUR due to Fiscal Cliff
On Monday UK House Price figures showing a fall of 3.3% in December however GBPUSD rates are still up close to a 2 month high.  The concern with regards to Cable prices (GBPUSD) all comes from the developments on the Fiscal Cliff story that we have discussed several times.

I expect to see GBPUSD rates increase as it looks more probable that a resolution to avoid the Fiscal cliff will be made. Any news that pushes back a potential resolution or even suggests that an agreement won’t be made should make the dollar more expensive.  The reason behind my forecasts are if commitment is made to invest, the US traders appetite for risk will probably increase, meaning assets will be sold in the dollar to invest in riskier currencies. This swing of demand for the dollar should result in significant changes in the price to buy the dollar.
Personally I expect a resolution to be found before Christmas so for GBPUSD rates to climb before the end of the year. Sellers as a result may wish to trade ASAP.

If you need any further information or would like to discuss your situation with an expert, feel free to contact us today. You can do that by calling on the normal number or emailing me on hse@currencies.co.uk

Thank you!

Steve Eakins

hse@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR Forecast 2013

The pound The start of the year was marred by double dip recession which we only came out of in Q3. The risks of a triple dip recession are high as is the threat of the UK being downgraded from its prestigious triple A credit rating. Whilst this has kept the pound weak against most currencies, against the Euro and USD sterling has strengthened to very favourable levels this year. Unfortunately the fragile nature of the UK recovery and economic outlook mean anytime favourable levels are seen, they do not usually last long and I expect to be a feature of rates in 2013. Forward contracts are an excellent way to protect yourself from these unpredictable swings.

I expect the issue of growth to become even more important politically and put more pressure on the Chancellor George Osborn to do more to stimulate growth. In the short term this will probably mean more QE by the Bank of England which will also keep the pound weak.

On the bright side the UK is recognised internationally for at least trying to tackle its debt problems and sterling is a haven for foreign investors. Longer term this should stand the pound in good stead but this is unlikely to be reflected in the rate for perhaps many years. 2013 looks set to be another year of uncertainty for sterling. For a detailed forecast relating to your transfer please contact me directly.

Another year of the Eurozone in the headlines. Investors and the world were almost taken to the brink in the summer as interest rate cuts and elections threatened to undermine confidence. High expectations Greece would be forced to leave were quashed by central bank President Mario Draghi. His statement of intent to do ‘whatever it takes’ to ‘preserve’ the euro filled markets with confidence and the euro clawed back lost ground against all currencies.

You would struggle to find anyone who felt that these statements marked an end of the euro crisis however. It is perhaps fair to say the worst case scenarios painted can for the time being, be ruled out but political uncertainty and depressed economies do signal further problems ahead in 2013. The euro crisis is the big story of our generation and it is impossible to say exactly what will happen. It is likely that the euro will remain weak against the dollar and sterling due to the poor performance of the Eurozone economy compared to the economies of these currencies. If you are buying or selling Euros for any other currency you can speak to me for the best rates and a full discussion of how we can limit your exposure.

If you would like more information on any subject please let me know personally, Jonathan Watson jmw@currencies.co.uk, 01494 787 478

GBPEUR rates to climb? (Steve Eakins)

Today we have had unemployment figures from the UK which confirmed the expected fall due to the build-up to the festive period. This was priced into the market before the release and as a result we saw little movement in price of exchange rates.

Tomorrow is the big day this week which could move markets by upwards of a cent. The data I am talking about is the European Monthly Report which is the first real opportunity the bank has had to comment on the speculation of an interest rate drop in the single currency early new year.  This speculation was built on comments made in their Interest Rate decision last Thursday which at the time weakened the euro by almost a cent.  They lowered their forecasts for growth across Europe last week which started this speculation.

I would however note a voice of warning as an interest rate cut has already been priced into the market.  So if we were to see commentary saying it is not going to happen, or even pushing the Interest Rate change to the middle of 2013 expect the Euro to strengthen very quickly.  This could really surprise and cost new currency traders a lot of money so make sure you are not caught out.

If you have a currency transfer to make, make sure you are using a pro-active broker that provides award winning exchange rates like ourselves. We provide a free service which regularly surprises our clients’ by showing big savings. If you want to make sure you are getting a good price feel free to contact us for a honest answer.  You can contact us on our normal number or via email at hse@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Overview (Matthew Vassallo)

The EUR made some early inroads against Sterling during Tuesday morning’s trading, moving over half a cent before lunch to a high of 1.2376. This movement was not predicted and once again proves how unstable and volatile GBP/EUR exchange rates continue to be.

2012 has been quite a year for our most popular traded currency pair. We started 2012 with various analyst’s predictions, ranging from parity to 1.40 on the pair. This left many clients scratching their heads wondering who to believe, all the while reaffirming my belief that long-range forecasts, particularly on GBP/EUR are not all that beneficial. This is because the current economic climate in Europe and the UK is a constantly changing landscape and what is true today will not necessarily be true next week and almost certainly not true next month. We need to be reactive to these market developments, without having a knee jerk reaction to any negative data that might be released. Personally I feel whilst we continue to trade above 1.20, EUR buyers are probably doing a bit better than they should be and it is important to remember that if you were to make a £100,000 GBP/EUR transfer today, you would receive an additional EUR 7000 compared to a transfer at the same time last year!

Following the recent Autumn statement and on-going eurozone debt crisis, we are likely to see both GBP and the EUR come under further pressure as we head into 2012. Whilst both are falling off against the other major currencies it makes forecasts on the two particularly challenging. Quite frankly the markets are taking it week by week and at various junctures deciding which is the lesser of two evils, before the markets react accordingly.

This market uncertainty not only creates issues for high end investors but also anyone looking to move funds for a foreign property purchase, or indeed those looking to repatriatise their funds into the UK following a sale. We have over twelve years experience of navigating the currency markets and providing over 45,000 clients with award winning rates of exchange and customer service. If you would like to find out what rates we can offer, or have any market queries, then please feel free to contact em directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or call me on 01494 787 478.

GBP/EUR rates spike to a near three week high (Alistair)

Yesterday we saw Sterling come very close to a three week high against the euro with a lot of investors wary of the single currency after Italian president, Mario Monti, announced that he will be stepping down from his post after the 2013 budget. Mario Monti announced on Saturday that he would be resigning next year, adding to the political uncertainty in Italy and in turn having a derogatory effect on the euro. Sterling gained 0.2% against the euro with GBP/EUR rates hitting a high of 1.2442 on Monday. In my opinion this is a very good time for anyone looking to purchase euros because of the uncertainty within the eurozone. This announcement from Mario Monti paired with the announcement last week that the European Central Bank could cut interest rates in the new year have seen Sterling rocket against the euro but it could be short lived. A UK factory data release showed its biggest drop since June, adding to concerns that the UK economy will shrink again as we near the end of the last quarter of 2012.

If you have any currency requirements or would like to speak to one of our highly experienced and specialised currency brokers today then please contact the dealing floor directly on 01494 725 353 or Email me directly at atr@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR rates at risk (Steve Eakins)

Today we have a busy day on the markets and could move the price of the euro by a cent, costing you potentially anything up to £2,250 more for a €200,000 purchase.  The reason being we have both the Internet Rate Decision for the UK and Europe, plus the latest figures about the GDP for Europe

Interest rates are expected to stay on hold both in the UK and Europe however following the release in the single currency a press conference is scheduled.  This press conference will probably have tough questions for the bank to answer about the future of the debt buying program in Greece, why Eurozone Retail Figures have been falling and again why there are over 14,000,000 unemployed.  Most of these subjects have been well documented so I don’t expect any significant movement, in fact I expect the Interest Rate Decision to be a non-event this afternoon. 

EU GDP figures are expected to show an improvement this morning which will probably be the biggest mover today, this should make buying the single currency more expensive so buyers may want to move sooner rather than later.  Euro sellers that have not already moved at the close 6 month high, may want to move following this release?

There is one more potential wild card that could move markets today.  Following yesterday’s UK Autumn statement when the government confirmed that they will be missing savings targets, and debt targets the current AAA credit rating is at risk.  This is of a big concern as if the UK is downgraded, borrowing costs will go up internationally and sterling could really weaken. We will be waiting for news from the major credit rating agencies with regards to their thoughts of the budget and the future rating of the UK, if they raise the alarm bells that is could be lost I would expect Sterling’s value falling. 

If you are looking to move money internationally and want to make sure you are achieving the best exchange rates, feel free to contact us for a free quotation.  Here we have been helping people do this for over 12 years, we have a number of awards for both our service and rate of exchange, so I am very comfortable we will be able to help. Otherwise we would not be in business. Contact us on the normal number or via email at hse@currencies.co.uk

Thanks,

Steve Eakins

Elite Trader

Foreign Currency Direct PLC

hse@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR rates dip below 1.23… (Jonathan)

GBPEUR has suffered this afternoon as fears over the budget for tomorrow in the UK mix in with renewed confidence for Greece. The Spanish bank ‘aid’ announced is also easing the recent fears over the Euro debt crisis. Quite simply we haven’t had any bad news for the Euro and investors attention is now returning to the UK and this is as we expected causing the rate to fall.

Tomorrow is the UK’s Autumn Statement where the Chancellor George Osborn will deliver details on fiscal policy including his assessment on hitting his own targets. Some have argued one of the reasons GBPEUR has recently suffered is hints Osborn’s own targets will be missed and I would concur. I do not think it is fully priced in and would not be surprised to see the pound under further pressure until the end of the week.

Although the week has started slowly the rate movements this afternoon could be a catalyst for further losses. This week still has a huge amount of data to move the market so to be sure you do not miss out why not speak to us? We seek to ensure our clients are fully aware of everything moving their rate so that when they trade they do so not just at the best rate, but also at the right time. For further information feel free to contact me directly, Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk  01494 787 478