Monthly Archives: January 2013
GBPEUR rates, will they climb back? (Steve Eakins)
This week we have seen rates continue to fall for euro buyers, but they have fallen at a slower pace that a majority of January as I forecasted earlier this week. We also had a few surprising moment when rates increased for euro buyers. This was down to negative commentary coming from France. This news surprised the market and provided clients that could move quickly with a saving of nearly a 1% compared to levels today. Here this spike kept us busy as we informed clients that had registered their interest which in time has proved to be the correct decision.
There is possibility that we will see a similar opportunity in the days ahead. Especially with the end of the month looming! As city traders sell off their positions to recognise their profit referred to as “profit taking” the additional artificial demand on the market could provide euro buyers with a spike. Longer term going into next week and February watch out for UK data figures for January. Any that show an improvement could result in GBP spiking up as it will lower the odds that the UK has gone into a recession.
Data next week includes: interest rate decisions, retail figures, construction figures and industrial figures. All of which are normally the most influential and powerful in moving market prices.
If you would like to be kept up to date on market movements or want to make sure you are getting the best price, please feel free to contact us today. Our award winning service and exchange rates save clients normally between 2%-4% compared to banks. PLUS with our recent awards we are increasingly confident we can save you money even against currency brokers. Contact us today for more information on the normal number or via email at hse@currencies.co.uk
Thank you,
Steve Eakins
I just saved a new client £744.74 against another currency broker!
Anyone reading this site who is fairly savvy on transferring money abroad may think that we are just ‘another currency broker’ and that they are all the same.
Well at 10.30 today I had a new client contact me on one of our sister sites buying €210,000 on a forward contract. He was already dealing with another company and wanted to check if he was getting the best deal. Lucky he did! One e-mail and 35 minutes later, he was £744.74 better off!
Even if you have been dealing with another company for some time a quick call or email to us could save you money. Just like car insurance, shopping around on your currency can save you money.
For a free no obligation discussion of your exchange please feel free to contact me Jonny directly on 01494 787 478, or email jmw@currencies.co.uk
I look forward to hearing from you and genuinely saving you money!
GBPEUR rates fall slows (Steve Eakins)
Sorry to sound like a broken record but forecasts for the GBPEUR rates of exchange stay set on further falls in the near future. In yesterday’s trading we saw rates again break another threshold breaching 1.17. This was initially broken in early trading hitting “tickers” in the market. Tickers are automatic buy orders placed by financial institutes in an aim to limit losses on carry trades they hold. Due to this influx of cash into the markets GBPEUR rates climbed back over 1.17. New tickers were then put into the market however at a lower level allowing the rates to fall to 1.1650 by the end of the day and hold under the 1.17 level.
This morning we see the markets at 1.1667 and with the next big data release due on Thursday rates I would expect to move only slightly compared to the recent decent we have seen. This month we have averaged a fall of 1.75 cents a week or adding £2,250 on a €200,000 purchase. For the remainder of the week I would be surprised to see any recovery but think the fall will still continue at a slower speed. As a result I would urge anyone that needs to buy euros to move sooner rather than later and anyone with euros to sell to perhaps wait a little longer.
Saying that however there is still opportunity for euro buyers. The market yesterday for example moved by over 0.6% throughout the day allowing a well-timed euro purchase to save £880 on a €150,000 purchase. That is the service that we offer here. As well as giving our clients access to award winning exchange rates which save clients normally between 2%-4% compared to the banks we offer a pro-active service aimed at highlighting these peaks so you can maximise the markets. If that is of any interest please either get in contact on the normal number or email me here at hse@currencies.co.uk
Thank you,
Steve Eakins
Elite Trader
GBP/EUR rates, short term move may hinder on UK GDP tomorrow
Sterling exchange rates have struggled since the start of 2013 falling 3.5% from the high when compared to the low. This is a substantial move in a little over 3 weeks and is a worrying trend for the pound. For me the next big data set for anyone with an interest in this pair will be tomorrows eagerly anticipated UK GDP data. Following the NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) forecasting -0.3% growth for Q4 of 2012 the market is predicting the worst for tomorrow’s data. Preliminary forecasts are suggesting -0.1% and I for one feel that should the data come in as expected or hopefully better than expected ie 0% or better then I believe the pound could have a better day tomorrow. I do feel that the current levels are a little surprising and think a correction is due and can see levels heading back towards the 1.20 territory. Should you be selling Euros for this reason and whilst levels not far from a 1 year high, it may well be worth considering your options, this may include the use of a forward contract allowing you to guarantee your position even if you do not have full availability of your funds.
To discuss your options further and to see what we can do for your individual requirement then please do not hesitate to contact me either on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk
GBPEUR Forecast
The initial shocks of the UK’s potential EU exit have now been absorbed by the market and the pound and GBPEUR rate have completed a reasonable correction more accurately reflecting the state of the UK economy.
There is still much to move the market this week and next. GBPEUR buyers or sellers should be aware Friday we have UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) which may well move the market by up to 1 or 2 cents in either direction. Since the start of the year those selling pounds to buy euros have seen the rate drop over 4%! Buying €200,000 is now £7000 more expensive than it was at the start of the year.
Will this decline in GBPEUR rates continue?
So the UK is to call a referendum on being a member of the European Union. Apart from being a real political hot potato and being the ruin of Cameron this could have disastrous effects on the UK. We will not have an answer to the question for many years so now any possible investors in the pound or UK (who are not short on other reasons to be fearful and questioning of the UK) have another reason to be unsure.
Friday’s GDP will offer some confirmation of whether the recent GBP sell off has been warranted. I would not be surprised to see the pounds to euro rates drop a little further on Friday as we realise the dire state of economic growth for the UK.
If you have a transfer to consider and would like more information on what is moving your rate and the best time to transfer, please get in touch. We are specialist currency brokers who offer a personal and proactive service to ensure our clients get not only the best exchange rates, but also the best information on when to trade.
For a free, no obligation discussion of your situation please feel free to speak with me Jonathan directly on 01494 787 478 or email jmw@currencies.co.uk
I look forward to hearing from you!
GBPEUR raise slightly but why? (STEVE EAKINS)
There seems to be a lot on anxious people at the moment who have calculated their GBPEUR losses over the last few weeks watching and waiting for some relief. That came today following better than expected unemployment figures in the UK and a somewhat none event from the European speech. GBPEUR rates climbed as a result by ¾ of a cent saving £1,000 on a €200,000 purchase. Next is the all-important UK GDP figures which are released on Friday at 9:30 GMT. This as previously covered could open the
gateway to the UK failing into a TRIPP DIP recession. So what could happen over the next few days?
Firstly I would expect the pound to fall in anticipation of the data release on Friday. (We may see ½ cent drop before noon.) On Friday morning the market will price in the expected fall so more falls are expected. When the release is published the if the report shows the same as expected the markets will probably not more. If it is poorer expect this to be priced in quickly creating more sterling weakness. If it is slightly better, Pound strength will probably follow.
What I would remind all is that as the euro has gained nearly 3% this year there will be traders looking at taking profits. This additional influx of demand could easily move markets by another ½ cent before month end and I would not be surprised to see this occur as early as Friday afternoon.
We are now at a near week high buying euros and yesterday was at a 11 month low!
If you need to move money in the near future and want to make sure you are trading at the best prices contact us today for a quick comparison. Once we have proved this to you we can happily help you try and time the trade in the currency market. For more information or to answer any questions please submit them to hse@currencies.co.uk
Thank you,
Steve Eakins
Elite Trader
GBPEUR rates expected to fall further? (Steve Eakins)
Rates have fallen further since my last blog as many have now come to expect. We have broken the 1.20 mark and rates seem to be quickly falling further challenging 1.19. So what do we expect for the immediate future?
Well it does not look any more promising for people looking to buy euros. On Tuesday we have the Unemployment figures for the UK and on Friday the latest GDP figures. Following the news that nearly 10,000 are at risk to become unemployed over the last week due to Jessops, Blockbuster and HMV going into administration these are expected to be great. With
regards to the GDP figures this is also expected to show a fall to -0.3%. This would really push the probability of a TRIPLE DIP recession from the scape goat story into a real risk for 2013. Plus will mean that the UK economy was only out of the economy for 1 quarter. This will push both rates down and demand from investors plus traders.
So if you have euros to buy I would suggest moving sooner rather than later. Euros sellers – happy New Year – over the last 2 weeks you have gained 2.5% or £4,000 from a €200,000 sell.
What I would highlight however is that markets have surprised us and could easily again. I expect the next 7 days to have a spread, (difference between the high and low), of over 1.5%. If you want to buy and are looking for the best price register your interest by email. We can notify you when rates are high so you can make the educated decision. Email your name,
contact details, volume and timeframes to HSE@currencies.co.uk.
If you have any questions and are looking for the best rate of exchange please contact us on the normal number or by email at hse@currencies.co.uk
All the best,
Steve Eakins
Elite Trader
Pound exchange rates down against the Euro. Best EUR/GBP prices in over 9 months
Pound exchange rates have struggled since the start of the year against most majors bar the US dollar, the burning question for many is will this continue? For me I am a little surprised at some of the moves, in particular the heavy losses we have seen against the Euro.
I for one am still confident the Pound will have a better year against the single currency but early indications suggest any gains may be some way off. Moves have come about due to a couple of factors. Last week Mario Draghi (head of the European Central Bank) decided to keep the base interest rate for the Euro zone on hold at 0.75% – this was not wholly unexpected, however many analysts and market commentators (myself included) had expected a likely rate cut to assist the ailing European economy in the next few months. Following Draghi’s press conference this seems increasingly unlikely and as a result demand for the Euro has increased and hence so to the value. To compound this figures from the NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) a well respected think tank have predicted -0.3% growth for Q4 2012, making the dreaded triple dip recession very much a reality. This will be confirmed on the 25th January – a date that should be firmly in your mind if you are dealing with Sterling in the coming weeks. Of course if the figures are better than expected the pound may be grossly undervalued and a correction seen.
Keep in contact with your broker to for up to date analysis of the current trading conditions. To discuss my view and to run through the currency service we provide then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk
After a busy week for GBP/EUR, what’s next? (Alistair Ryan)
It was a busy end to last week for GBP/EUR rates with exchange rates starting the week pushing the 1.23 barrier and ending the week in the 1.20’s. The Euro rallied against the pound after an announcement from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi stated that interest rates across the Euro zone would not be cut and remain unchanged at 0.75%. This data coupled with disappointing industrial production and construction figures from the UK had a large effect on GBP/EUR rates.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) have announced that they believe the UK economy shrunk by 0.3% in the last 3 months of 2012. If this is confirmed in the preliminary GDP figures on Friday 25th January then we could see GBP/EUR rates fall even further.
I believe that with a lot of negative data coming from the UK and with some data releases not being quite as positive as expected this announcement from the NIESR could well be correct. In my opinion after the preliminary GDP figures are released we could see GBP/EUR rates fall towards the 1.18 region.
If you have any questions or would like to talk about movements in the market in more detail then please contact me directly at atr@currencies.co.uk
Retail, industrial and productivity data will drive GBP prices this week (Steve Eakins)
GBPEUR rates have fallen continually already this year losing over 2%. It currently is at its lowest level seen in over 9 months, but will it continue? This week there is not as much economic data being released and as a result should not be as many surprises. The busy days this week are Tuesday and Thursday. Tomorrow we have UK Retail indicators, UK Productivity and UK Industrial data, 12 data releases in total. The general forecasts are for a slight improvement for the UK economy and so could be the opportunity for euro buyers to save some pennies. Sellers of the euro however may want to move before hand to limit their exposure to seeing a lose while trading at these 9 month highs.
On Thursday Retail figures are released for the UK both Month on Month (MOM) and Year or Year (YOY.) Retail equates to over 60% of the UK so is keenly watched. This is also expected to show an improvement so buyers may want to wait till then but I personally think this will be priced into the market tomorrow making Tuesday potentially the day to buy.
Wild cards this week include:
- French politics
- Italian political race
- Commentary from the European Central bank
- News with regards to the US debt ceiling
Each of these could surprise the market resulting in a 2 cent movement similar to GBPEUR rates at the end of last week. Costing euro buyers potentially another £2,600 on a €200,000 purchase.
If you need to move funds abroad and interested in a personal strategy on how to maximise the market please email your contact details to hse@currencies.co.uk
Thank you,
Steve Eakins
Elite trader
EUR Moves to 9 Month High Against GBP
The EUR continued its dramatic rise against GBP, pushing through the 1.21 barrier during Friday afternoon trading. These levels have not been seen since April 2011 and depsite recent claims that the eurozone economy would continue to struggle in 2013, many will view this as a turning point for the single currency.
The reason for this spike can be atrributed initailly to Mario Draghi’s monthly press conference on Thursday, where he painted a picture of a eurzone that was healing itslef. The markets reacted to this and the Euro strengthened by almost a cent. What was more surprising was its continued run against Sterling on Friday, where it moved another cent, breaking through the 1.21 resistance level. Further negative reports of UK production data and a prediction by the NIESR that the UK economy has contracted by 0.3% in Q4 has only added to Sterlings woes.
Personally I would head a word of caution as the EUR has a nasty habit of relinquishing such positions. On a 200,000 EUR/GBP transfer on Friday afternoon you would be making an additional £2,500 compared to the same transfer on Thursday morning and to me that is an opportunity to good to miss.
Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have a variety of contract types all tailored speciffically towards our clients needs. Two of our most popular contract types are the option to forward book, which can eliminate any future negative market movement and limit order contracts, wherby you set your desired level into the market and once it reaches those levels your contract will automatically fill. If you would like to find out the type of exchange rates we can offer, or would like to be kept up to date with market movements then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or on 01494 787 478.
Sterling exchange rates at a 9 month low on the back of UK production figures (Ben Amrany)
DATA ALERT
The pound has continued its decline against the Euro this morning testing new lows of 1.2142. The main contributing factor to the losses for the pound was the production figures to be released for the UK economy. It has shown that our industrial and manufacturing production figures have dropped a lot more than what was expected. This now shows that the UK economy is not ok and it faces a battle over the course of this year.
These latest figures could mean that at the end of last year the UK economy did not grow and many are now thinking that we could be in a triple dip recession. This is hindering the pound against a range of currencies but most notably against the Euro.
Once the official GBP figures for the UK come out I feel the pound could fall even further. This is great news if you are selling in the Eurozone as you are now getting the best levels in nearly a year for bringing your Euros back to the UK. If you are one that is buying in Europe and know that you need your funds over the next 2-3 months then please do contact me and I will explain the options that are available to you so you can limit any further losses.
Likewise if you are selling in Europe and will be bringing yoru funds back to teh Uk it would be good for me to explain how you may be able to get even better levels should the Euro continue its decline against the pound.
Feel free to email me at bma@currencies.co.uk and I will come back to you with all the options that are available to you.
Thank you for reading
Ben Amrany
GBPEUR exchange rates (Steve Eakins)
Rates of exchange have fallen this morning for EURO buyers as data continues to show an improving picture for Europe. European Retails Sales, Economic Sentiment and Service Sentiment all showed improvements in data which was released this morning. Unemployment in Europe did also go up but the markets I think are expecting jobless figures to climb globally in early 2013. As mentioned rates have fallen as a result but it is worth noting that a majority of the fall happened yesterday afternoon as traders priced in their expectations. This is important to remember as many clients currently know when key data releases are being released and turn on their FX screens then rather than the days before then markets start to move. Here at Foreign Currency Direct PLC we provide a pro-active service that helps highlight these movements so for example in the last 24 hours many clients looking to buy euros saved 0.5%+.
So what is happening for the rest of the week and how will exchange rates move?
This week the next big event is the release of European and UK interest rate decisions along with news on any additional stimulus being announced in the form of QE. These releases take place on Thursday but I would not be surprised to see the markets start to price in their expectation as soon as Wednesday. Currently the forecast is for little change in the figures but most are anticipating that the European Central Bank will use this as an opportunity to sell the euro making it more expensive to buy. As a result I would suggest euro buyers to watch carefully and limit their exposure by moving sooner rather than later if you need to buy within the next 5-7 days. I personally would not be surprised to see rates drop by a further 1.5 cents over this period, or adding an additional £1,500 on a €150,000 purchase.
If you have a need to move money internationally and have more time, feel free to contact me directly for a personally strategy with reference to your situation; the timeframes you have, the availability of funds and the volumes you are trading in the short, medium and long term. I can be contacted on the normal number or via email directly at hse@currencies.co.uk
Thank you,
Steve Eakins,
Elite Trader
GBPEUR rates steady but for how long? (Steve Eakins)
Rates this year have been fairly standard but there are many storied that could change the fair of euro prices in the near future including; Italian politics, US debt ceiling, UK borrowing costs, USA Q3 news and French tax systems. All of these stories are expected to develop over the next 4 weeks and each could change the price of buying euros.
On-top of that we have all the standard economic data releases that we cover here on almost a daily basis. The next week includes the following key data releases:
- European Production Price index
- UK Retail sales
- European Consumer confidence
- European Industry date
- European Retail figures
- European Unemployment data
- UK Trade Balance
- Interest rate decisions in UK
- Interest rate decisions in Europe
- QE decisions in UK
- Asset buying update in Europe
- UK Industrial Productivity
- UK Manufacturing Productivity
- UK Bond Auctions
All of these will have a forecast before had that will be priced into the market, when each is released if the data shows a different figure than expected markets will then move again. It is these new releases that tradionally move the markets and is why if you are looking to move money you need to watch the markets constantly to achive the best price. Here we provide a pro-active service helping achive just this. Helping you potentially time your buys at the top of the market while still giving access to the award winning rates of exchange avalible at a commercial level. For example we trade in excess of £500,000,000 annually giving us access to these better prices.
If you have been reading these blogs make your New Years resolution to make contact to check you are getting the best prices. Feel free to ring on the normal number or email me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk
All the best and happy New Year!
Steve Eakins
Elite trader
http://www.gbpeuroforecast.co.uk/?p=956
GBPEURO Forecast 2013
The current outlook for GBPEUR is that the rate will probably drop lower. It is therefore more likely we will see 1.20 before 1.25. This is because despite problems in the Eurozone it is probably more likely we will see some more QE by the Bank of England which will cause GBP weakness.
There is the prospect of a further interest rate cut in the Eurozone but on balance I think it more likely we will see the rate drop to a poor performance of the UK economy. The UK’s debt problems are significant and investors are right to be concerned about the UK losing its credit rating.
If you are considering buying Euros I think now is the time to act to avoid disappointment down the line.
If you would like more information about how to get the best deals on currency transfers and what is driving this market please contact me directly on 01494 787 478 or email jmw@currencies.co.uk
