Monthly Archives: January 2013
I just saved a new client £744.74 against another currency broker!
Anyone reading this site who is fairly savvy on transferring money abroad may think that we are just ‘another currency broker’ and that they are all the same.
Well at 10.30 today I had a new client contact me on one of our sister sites buying €210,000 on a forward contract. He was already dealing with another company and wanted to check if he was getting the best deal. Lucky he did! One e-mail and 35 minutes later, he was £744.74 better off!
Even if you have been dealing with another company for some time a quick call or email to us could save you money. Just like car insurance, shopping around on your currency can save you money.
For a free no obligation discussion of your exchange please feel free to contact me Jonny directly on 01494 787 478, or email jmw@currencies.co.uk
I look forward to hearing from you and genuinely saving you money!
GBP/EUR rates, short term move may hinder on UK GDP tomorrow
Sterling exchange rates have struggled since the start of 2013 falling 3.5% from the high when compared to the low. This is a substantial move in a little over 3 weeks and is a worrying trend for the pound. For me the next big data set for anyone with an interest in this pair will be tomorrows eagerly anticipated UK GDP data. Following the NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) forecasting -0.3% growth for Q4 of 2012 the market is predicting the worst for tomorrow’s data. Preliminary forecasts are suggesting -0.1% and I for one feel that should the data come in as expected or hopefully better than expected ie 0% or better then I believe the pound could have a better day tomorrow. I do feel that the current levels are a little surprising and think a correction is due and can see levels heading back towards the 1.20 territory. Should you be selling Euros for this reason and whilst levels not far from a 1 year high, it may well be worth considering your options, this may include the use of a forward contract allowing you to guarantee your position even if you do not have full availability of your funds.
To discuss your options further and to see what we can do for your individual requirement then please do not hesitate to contact me either on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk
GBPEUR Forecast
The initial shocks of the UK’s potential EU exit have now been absorbed by the market and the pound and GBPEUR rate have completed a reasonable correction more accurately reflecting the state of the UK economy.
There is still much to move the market this week and next. GBPEUR buyers or sellers should be aware Friday we have UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) which may well move the market by up to 1 or 2 cents in either direction. Since the start of the year those selling pounds to buy euros have seen the rate drop over 4%! Buying €200,000 is now £7000 more expensive than it was at the start of the year.
Will this decline in GBPEUR rates continue?
So the UK is to call a referendum on being a member of the European Union. Apart from being a real political hot potato and being the ruin of Cameron this could have disastrous effects on the UK. We will not have an answer to the question for many years so now any possible investors in the pound or UK (who are not short on other reasons to be fearful and questioning of the UK) have another reason to be unsure.
Friday’s GDP will offer some confirmation of whether the recent GBP sell off has been warranted. I would not be surprised to see the pounds to euro rates drop a little further on Friday as we realise the dire state of economic growth for the UK.
If you have a transfer to consider and would like more information on what is moving your rate and the best time to transfer, please get in touch. We are specialist currency brokers who offer a personal and proactive service to ensure our clients get not only the best exchange rates, but also the best information on when to trade.
For a free, no obligation discussion of your situation please feel free to speak with me Jonathan directly on 01494 787 478 or email jmw@currencies.co.uk
I look forward to hearing from you!
Pound exchange rates down against the Euro. Best EUR/GBP prices in over 9 months
Pound exchange rates have struggled since the start of the year against most majors bar the US dollar, the burning question for many is will this continue? For me I am a little surprised at some of the moves, in particular the heavy losses we have seen against the Euro.
I for one am still confident the Pound will have a better year against the single currency but early indications suggest any gains may be some way off. Moves have come about due to a couple of factors. Last week Mario Draghi (head of the European Central Bank) decided to keep the base interest rate for the Euro zone on hold at 0.75% – this was not wholly unexpected, however many analysts and market commentators (myself included) had expected a likely rate cut to assist the ailing European economy in the next few months. Following Draghi’s press conference this seems increasingly unlikely and as a result demand for the Euro has increased and hence so to the value. To compound this figures from the NIESR (National Institute for Economic and Social Research) a well respected think tank have predicted -0.3% growth for Q4 2012, making the dreaded triple dip recession very much a reality. This will be confirmed on the 25th January – a date that should be firmly in your mind if you are dealing with Sterling in the coming weeks. Of course if the figures are better than expected the pound may be grossly undervalued and a correction seen.
Keep in contact with your broker to for up to date analysis of the current trading conditions. To discuss my view and to run through the currency service we provide then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk
After a busy week for GBP/EUR, what’s next? (Alistair Ryan)
It was a busy end to last week for GBP/EUR rates with exchange rates starting the week pushing the 1.23 barrier and ending the week in the 1.20’s. The Euro rallied against the pound after an announcement from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi stated that interest rates across the Euro zone would not be cut and remain unchanged at 0.75%. This data coupled with disappointing industrial production and construction figures from the UK had a large effect on GBP/EUR rates.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) have announced that they believe the UK economy shrunk by 0.3% in the last 3 months of 2012. If this is confirmed in the preliminary GDP figures on Friday 25th January then we could see GBP/EUR rates fall even further.
I believe that with a lot of negative data coming from the UK and with some data releases not being quite as positive as expected this announcement from the NIESR could well be correct. In my opinion after the preliminary GDP figures are released we could see GBP/EUR rates fall towards the 1.18 region.
If you have any questions or would like to talk about movements in the market in more detail then please contact me directly at atr@currencies.co.uk
Retail, industrial and productivity data will drive GBP prices this week (Steve Eakins)
GBPEUR rates have fallen continually already this year losing over 2%. It currently is at its lowest level seen in over 9 months, but will it continue? This week there is not as much economic data being released and as a result should not be as many surprises. The busy days this week are Tuesday and Thursday. Tomorrow we have UK Retail indicators, UK Productivity and UK Industrial data, 12 data releases in total. The general forecasts are for a slight improvement for the UK economy and so could be the opportunity for euro buyers to save some pennies. Sellers of the euro however may want to move before hand to limit their exposure to seeing a lose while trading at these 9 month highs.
On Thursday Retail figures are released for the UK both Month on Month (MOM) and Year or Year (YOY.) Retail equates to over 60% of the UK so is keenly watched. This is also expected to show an improvement so buyers may want to wait till then but I personally think this will be priced into the market tomorrow making Tuesday potentially the day to buy.
Wild cards this week include:
- French politics
- Italian political race
- Commentary from the European Central bank
- News with regards to the US debt ceiling
Each of these could surprise the market resulting in a 2 cent movement similar to GBPEUR rates at the end of last week. Costing euro buyers potentially another £2,600 on a €200,000 purchase.
If you need to move funds abroad and interested in a personal strategy on how to maximise the market please email your contact details to hse@currencies.co.uk
Thank you,
Steve Eakins
Elite trader
EUR Moves to 9 Month High Against GBP
The EUR continued its dramatic rise against GBP, pushing through the 1.21 barrier during Friday afternoon trading. These levels have not been seen since April 2011 and depsite recent claims that the eurozone economy would continue to struggle in 2013, many will view this as a turning point for the single currency.
The reason for this spike can be atrributed initailly to Mario Draghi’s monthly press conference on Thursday, where he painted a picture of a eurzone that was healing itslef. The markets reacted to this and the Euro strengthened by almost a cent. What was more surprising was its continued run against Sterling on Friday, where it moved another cent, breaking through the 1.21 resistance level. Further negative reports of UK production data and a prediction by the NIESR that the UK economy has contracted by 0.3% in Q4 has only added to Sterlings woes.
Personally I would head a word of caution as the EUR has a nasty habit of relinquishing such positions. On a 200,000 EUR/GBP transfer on Friday afternoon you would be making an additional £2,500 compared to the same transfer on Thursday morning and to me that is an opportunity to good to miss.
Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have a variety of contract types all tailored speciffically towards our clients needs. Two of our most popular contract types are the option to forward book, which can eliminate any future negative market movement and limit order contracts, wherby you set your desired level into the market and once it reaches those levels your contract will automatically fill. If you would like to find out the type of exchange rates we can offer, or would like to be kept up to date with market movements then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or on 01494 787 478.
Sterling exchange rates at a 9 month low on the back of UK production figures (Ben Amrany)
DATA ALERT
The pound has continued its decline against the Euro this morning testing new lows of 1.2142. The main contributing factor to the losses for the pound was the production figures to be released for the UK economy. It has shown that our industrial and manufacturing production figures have dropped a lot more than what was expected. This now shows that the UK economy is not ok and it faces a battle over the course of this year.
These latest figures could mean that at the end of last year the UK economy did not grow and many are now thinking that we could be in a triple dip recession. This is hindering the pound against a range of currencies but most notably against the Euro.
Once the official GBP figures for the UK come out I feel the pound could fall even further. This is great news if you are selling in the Eurozone as you are now getting the best levels in nearly a year for bringing your Euros back to the UK. If you are one that is buying in Europe and know that you need your funds over the next 2-3 months then please do contact me and I will explain the options that are available to you so you can limit any further losses.
Likewise if you are selling in Europe and will be bringing yoru funds back to teh Uk it would be good for me to explain how you may be able to get even better levels should the Euro continue its decline against the pound.
Feel free to email me at bma@currencies.co.uk and I will come back to you with all the options that are available to you.
Thank you for reading
Ben Amrany
GBPEURO Forecast 2013
The current outlook for GBPEUR is that the rate will probably drop lower. It is therefore more likely we will see 1.20 before 1.25. This is because despite problems in the Eurozone it is probably more likely we will see some more QE by the Bank of England which will cause GBP weakness.
There is the prospect of a further interest rate cut in the Eurozone but on balance I think it more likely we will see the rate drop to a poor performance of the UK economy. The UK’s debt problems are significant and investors are right to be concerned about the UK losing its credit rating.
If you are considering buying Euros I think now is the time to act to avoid disappointment down the line.
If you would like more information about how to get the best deals on currency transfers and what is driving this market please contact me directly on 01494 787 478 or email jmw@currencies.co.uk