Monthly Archives: February 2013

Will the GBP/EUR tug of war continue? What is happening with GBP/EUR rates? (Alistair Ryan)

The tug of war between Sterling and Euro is still going strong with no sign of it finishing any time soon. GBP/EUR rates have been tremendously volatile in recent days and I think we could see this trend continue in the coming days or weeks. We started the week with the UK losing their AAA credit rating which, although many expected it, brought a sense of shock in to the market and we saw Sterling plummet against most major currencies. It looked as though GBP/EUR rates were going to continue to drop but then uncertainty hit in the shape of the Italian Election. It seems as though the markets were expecting a more stable outcome to this election in the euro-zones third largest economy but with no clear winner and no set date of this being resolved, uncertainty in the market is rife.

In my opinion I think this volatility could go on for quite a while. The UK is being hit with a lot of negative data recently and with the very realistic chance that we could be heading towards a Triple Dip recession there seems to be no rest for the pound. The euro zone has very similar problems with negative data coming out of some of its larger economies, even if this election saga in Italy is resolved soon there are still a lot of underlying problems for the Euro with economies such as Spain and France.

If you have any currency requirements coming up and would like to speak with one of our specialised currency brokers about the different contract options available to you to safeguard you from any movements in the market or would like access to award winning exchange rates then please contact me direct at atr@currencies.co.uk

How will the Italian elections affect GBPEUR? – What has happened on GBPEUR?

Good Morning Readers, I hope you are well.

Overnight we saw some exceptional volatility on GBPEUR as investors tried to second guess the outcome of the Italian elections. With no clear overall winner being established it looks like a deeply uncertain time again for Europe and hence the euro has weakened. GBPEUR saw yesterday a 3 cent movement from low to high!

What can we expect today? Well with the outlook very much uncertain as to the future direction now for Austerity in Europe it may be that we start to see the Euro significantly weaken. The deadlock in the Italian situation brings into questions whether or not austerity will prevail and whether in fact we could see politicians ousted and even Italy leaving the Euro.

Effectively one quarter of the vote was taken each by Bersani (centre left), Berlusconi (social democrat), Bepe Grillo (the comdeian) and the other quarter didn’t vote!

If you are looking at a transfer involving pounds and euros the current outlook is extremely uncertain. To have so much going on at the moment affecting both the pound and the euro is creating some excellent opportunities. As a specialist currency broker I can assist with knowledge on why rates are moving and assistance trading at the right time. For further information on how to trade at much better rates please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478. I look forward to hearing from you.

What is happening to GBPEUR? GBP EURO Forecast (Steve Eakins)

As mentioned in the last few blogs sterling rates of exchange are very volatile making it a key time to keep an eye on the markets if you are looking to get the best prices.  Over the weekend the next step in European Politics unravels as we have the Italian Election.  Even though this has not been particularly covered recently it should not be dismissed. Italy is the 3rd largest economy in the Eurozone and has been the second worse performer since the crisis started after Greece.  Their politics are mixed and there has not been a clear party leader for a while, most are expecting a coalition government being voted in which is not ideal but
will help the euro in comparison to the unknown currently.  The stakes are simple:

“If there is no government in place in Italy how will it make any steps forward toward economic growth? If this happens expect GBPEUR to potentially go up in the immediate aftermath.”

Personally I imagine that there will not be a government in place on Monday morning giving euro buyers some relief. A think a coalition government will be formed quite quickly and with it more euro strength. So ignoring what has happened over the last week as markets are where they are, over the coming 3 trading sessions Italian Politics will rule currency markets and should be where all traders glare is fixed.  Further afield if you have weeks to make a trade look at the UK GDP figures which is released in the middle of next week. As the UK has continued to miss the mark through February all traders selling pounds should continue to be wary. Feel free to review a popular blog about the UK’s slow demise here

If you have a trade to make and would like assistance with timing the trade feel free to contact me directly, Steve Eakins on the normal number or via email at hse@currencies.co.uk. It may be worth limiting risks on larger trades through the use of a limit or stop order over what is expected to be a turbulent weekend.

Pound finds some support. Is there light at the end of the tunnel…..

Anyone looking to buy Euros with Sterling is likely to get very little change in the coming weeks with the Bank of England appearing determined to talk down the value of Sterling. Following comments made by Martin Weale a senior member of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) that the pound may need to weaken further to help make the UK exports cheaper to help economic growth, the pound is moving back closer to 18 month lows seen earlier this month. For me this policy is likely to continue from the Bank of England as priority for the MPC and Government will continue to focus on avoiding the ‘triple dip’ recession. Should the UK see negative growth in the first quarter of 2013 then the UK is officially back in recession and this is something everyone would like to avoid.

I for one am hopeful we will avoid this and the Pound could receive a welcome boost as a result. Official figures from Q1 will not get released until April and for this reason we are unlikely, in my opinion, to see the Pound gain any momentum. If we can avoid recession it is at this point that the ‘green shoots’ of recovery for the pound could appear.

In summary should you be buying euros in the next few weeks I expect rates to remain range bound between 1.15-1.17 – anyone with a longer term position I would hope to see 1.20 heading towards summer. Euro sellers should in my opinion strike while the iron is hot as the gains since the new year are a little over 6% – a pretty good return in anyone’s eyes.

To discuss my thoughts in more detail or to get an updated market analysis inclusive of how the currency service we provide works then please call the office on 01494 787478. I am very confident I can secure you a better rate for your currency exchange than your current provider and will happily provide you with a quote.

Alternatively email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

EURO rates climb – Buying euros at 16 month LOW (Steve Eakins)

Today we had more bad news for the UK that weakened the GBP to its lowest level for 16 months against the EURO and 8 months against the DOLLAR.  The reason for today’s fall is due to information released from  the Bank of England (BOE) Minutes of their last meeting.  In the meeting the head of the bank Mervyn King voted for an extension to the Quantitative Easing (QE) program which currently stands at £375 billion and he was not the only one. Out of the 9 members 3 voted for an increase. This has increased the potential of more QE from the bank in the near future. QE increases the flow of money in the system by “printing” more which in turn makes the money in the system worth less which de-values that currency i.e. the pound goes down.

Why does the rate continue to fall? Currency war?

Sterling has continually been falling this year and has already fallen 7% against the EURO and 6% against the DOLLAR since the beginning of the year.  There is speculation that the UK Government is aiming to weaken the pound to help our exports. It is thought that this could assist the UK grow in Q1 of 2013 so as a result avoid a return to a recession.  A recession would weaken the view of the pound globally plus be a political nightmare for the government. This is a growing thought inside investors so as a result we could see rates continue to fall.

Should I buy euros now before it gets worse?

My view is that if you need to buy euros or dollars this month to move sooner rather than later.  Longer term through April I still think the trend will continue to be negative for the pound but there will
continue to be spikes that buyers can take advantage of.  For example over the last 7 days GBPEUR has had a high/low difference of 2 cents. So timing a trade well could still save you thousands.  That is the service that we offer here. Helping our client base time trades well when SPIKES occur, plus while gaining access to the award winning exchange rates of offer.

If you need to make a currency transfer and want the best price at the right time feel free to contact us here. We have been helping people for over 12 years save money and am 100% sure we can save people money.
There is nothing to lose by getting in touch – Call today on the normal number or email hse@currencies.co.uk – Thank you, Steve Eakins

GBPEUR drops to 1.1408! Yes that is 1.1408. How much lower will it go?

If you are looking to make an exchange involving the pound and Euro a bit of careful planning could save you thousands of pounds. Just this week the difference between the high and the low has been over 2%. On a €100,000 transfer back into GBP you are looking at a difference of £1700 and it is only Wednesday!

Bank of England Minutes this morning showed that more QE is likely for the UK in the future. Any hopes that perhaps the rate would suddenly improve have today been dashed and anyone considering buying Euros should really not be taking anything for granted. 1.15 is a critical level of support to have breached and it is likley we will soon be testing 1.10.

Next week we have GDP data for the UK and a whole host of Eurozone data which will show us how the respective economies are performing. Despite the Eurozone being in recession officially investors will be closely watching the latest data. Last week’s GDP data for the Eurozone is effectively old news and therefore easily discounted if the newer data backs up recent signs of improvement in Europe.

Looking across the Channel the Italian elections will also be interesting, could Berlusconi really get back into power? It seems unlikley but you couldn’t rule it out.

Sterling looks likley to remain on a negative tide but fresh Eurozone worries could create some spikes next week to take advantage of. Don’t be fooled into thinking there is any chance of a big comeback for the GBP however. The close to ten cents slide since the start of the year looks certain to remain.

For a full discussion of your situation and to find out more about how to limit your exposure and trade at the best possible market exchange rates please feel free to contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.

GBP/EUR rates on the move again! (Alistair Ryan)

We have seen continued weakness from Sterling recently against both the euro and dollar. As of late GBP/EUR rates have been trading very close to a 15 month low with GBP/USD rates following the same trend hitting a 7 month low yesterday. There is a lot of pressure being put on Sterling at the moment with a declining UK economy, the chance of a triple dip recession and the possibility of a credit rating downgrade. All of these factors are having a derogatory effect on the pound but is this what Sterling needs to fire up a fightback against other currencies?

Bank of England policymaker Martin Weale yesterday stated that Sterling may need to weaken further in order to boost the UK economy. With a weaker pound it would help make our exports cheaper and in turn increase growth within the economy. If you couple this with the governor of the Bank of England Mervyn Kings speech last week, where it seemed he was openly talking the pound down, it looks like we could be in for some rough times for GBP rates.

The markets are very hard to judge at the moment with the talk of ‘Currency Wars’ and countries trying to artificially alter their exchange rates in order to boost their exports. This has created a lot of volatility in the market and lately it has not been rare to see movements of over 1% between the high and low of the day on exchange rates. I would not be surprised if in the short we saw GBP/EUR rates fall towards the 1.13-1.14 area but with all of these speeches from respected parties and data releases coming out recently I think we could see a tug of war between Sterling and most major currencies.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to talk about these market movements in more detail then please dont hesitate to get in touch. We have a number of different contract options to help you secure your currency at award winning exchange rates and help minimise your risk to a volatile market. Please contact me directly at atr@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP/EUR – buyers and sellers should watch out for Euro Zone GDP this morning (Michael Vaughan)

Anyone with an interest in this pairing should keep a close eye on Euro Zone GDP data at 10:00 this morning. Expectations are for a fall of -0.7% down from -0.6% the previous quarter. This release or worse and I think we may see some opportunities for Euro buyers.

This week, as with last has been increasingly more volatile. Monday morning rates were back at 1.18, by this morning we were moving close to breaching through the 1.15 level. However this morning we have already seen Germany and Portugal release their latest GDP figures and both have come out worse than expected suggesting the Euro zone as a whole could see a similar result. At time of writing GBP/EUR rates have bounced back above 1.16 and I think this trend may continue and would urge anyone with a short term position to buy in Euros to take stock as spikes in the market in favour of the pound are few and far between.

With the current market conditions being so volatile it is very important to get yourself in a position to take advantage should market levels spike in your favour. With rates moving in excess of 1% on a daily basis timing your exchange can make a significant difference to the cost of your transaction. As a specialist currency broker my job is to keep you informed of the current market trends and to help you maximise your exchange. Should you wish to discuss the service we provide and to discuss the market and different contract types available then I would be happy to speak with you. I am confident I can secure you a more favourable price than your current provider so please get in touch either by phone on 01494 787478 or email me direct (Mike) at mgv@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR rates falling again (Steve Eakins)

As mentioned in a few recent blogs the market is experiencing a volatile time currently. Over the last week we have seen two large spikes both for buyers and sellers.  Both of which were the biggest daily moves for over 7 months and created opportunities for those ready to move.  To put the movement into monetary value on a €200,000 purchase you could have saved or made £6,500 the equivalent to 2.75% when timing it right. On both occasions we were expecting movement and informed those clients that had registered their intentions. When the spikes came these clients were able to take advantage and save money on their respective exchanged.  It is a service that we have been providing for over 12 years helping our clients be aware of when to move funds while giving them access to our award winning exchange rates.  Simply put if we could not save you money on an exchange we would not be in business.

If this service sounds of interest feel free to register for your own updates via the telephone number or via email at hse@curerncies.co.uk

Will the rates improve?

Well over the next 7 days we have key events from both Europe, the UK and US so I expect the volatile market conditions to continue meaning more spikes may be available before month end. Personally I have the view that GBPEUR rates will generally fall along with GBPUSD rates as data from the UK continue to show a bleak picture for the economy.  If you are interested in making sure you have the best price contact us for free information.

Thank you,

Steve Eakins

hse@currencies.co.uk

Will the pound weaken further against the Euro?

GBPEUR FORCAST – GBPEUR will continue to make large moves! GBPEUR has not really found its feet so far this year and I see no reason this won’t continue for the rest of this week and next with lots to move the market. Movements over 1% in a day have not been surprising and are bound to continue for the foreseeable future. Since the start of the year buying €200,000 has become £11614.40 more expensive. With the possibilities of triple dip recessions, the UK leaving the EU and confidence largely returning in Europe it is likely this current bad run for sterling is far from over!

Tomorrow we have the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report. Historically BoE Governor Mervyn King speaking is GBP negative and I would not be surprised to see the pound suffer this morning due to further negative news surrounding the UK economy. If you are considering any transfers involving the pound you can speak direct to the trading floor on 01494 787 478 or make a direct enquiry here.

We are confident our passionate, proactive, personal service will help you to save money on currency and get a better deal. Everyday thousands of people lose thousands of pounds by not checking their rates. Make sure you aren’t the next! 

Sterling Drops and Expect Continued Volatility on GBP/EUR Rates (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling lost further ground against the euro during Mondays trading, as the recent volatility on the currency pair continued. We have seen over a cents movement, with rates now moving back into the 1.16’s after starting the day in the low 1.18 region. The reason for this movement could be attributed to a continuation of the recent volatility on the pair, coupled with a report on Monday which indicated that business confidence in the UK has hit a 21 year low.

It is very difficult to predict which direction the pair will take next, as one day the EUR seems to be gathering momentum back down towards 1.15, whilst the next it seems as if it is GBP that has turned a corner and will be pushing rates back towards 1.20. Quite honestly the markets are also trying to second guess the next move and the only thing that is proving consistent at the moment is that we can expect this variation to continue, whilst the eurozone debt crisis rumbles on and the UK remains on the verge of a triple dip recession.

Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we have won multiple awards for our exchange rates and service. If you have an upcoming currency transfer and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or would like to speak to us regarding the currency options available to you then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk or call us on 0044 1494 787 478.

Will Sterling Continue its Fightback?

GBP has rallied against the EUR during Friday’s trading, news that will help alleviate fears that the Pound was going to continue its free-fall against the single currency. This fighback follows the well documented recent losses and although I cannot say with confidence that we will see a complete realignment, I do feel a move back towards 1.19 is now more likely than a move back towards 1.15.

Sterling fell over 8 cents in under 3 weeks, with the markets reacting negatively to David Cameron’s suggestion that a referendum would be held over our future involvement in the EU. This coupled with the very real threat of a triple dip recession, following poor Gross Domestic Product figures for the last quarter of 2012, sapped market confidence and pushed GBP/EUR rates down to their lowest levels in 15 months.

As I have eluded to in previous posts, the currency markets will always move and these spikes can be aggressive and come without warning. What is important is that clients are fully aware of any market developments so that we can react accordingly.

Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we provide our clients with all the tools necessary to time their transfer to perfection. Not only will we achieve unrivaledrates of exchange but will provide a bespoke service unmatched anywhere in the industry. We will analyse key market data and ensure all our clients are kept up to date with any the key economic releases and spikes on their relevant currency pairs.

Where next for the struggling pound? (Alistair Ryan)

It is no secret that Sterling has been suffering against most major currencies recently, especially the euro. With a lot of negative data coming out of the UK and increased confidence across the Eurozone, GBP/EUR rates have been on a downward trend. In the past month we have seen over an 8 cent slip in GBP/EUR rates with a high of 1.2331 and a low of 1.1487.

Sterling started to make a small fight back against the single currency yesterday but it seemed to be short lived showing that this was more of a spike in the market rather than a comeback from the pound. Yesterday saw the release of UK PMI data for the service sector. The figure came out at 51.5, rising from 48.9 in December. Any figure above 50 represents growth within the economy and as the service sector accounts for around three quarters of the UK’s economic output this data release was seen as very positive for the UK economy. Eurozone PMI data was also released yesterday which came out at 48.6, showing a contraction for the 12th consecutive month. Although this figure came out as negative it is still an improvement on December’s reading of 47.8.

Although we have had this positive data for the pound in my opinion I can’t see a strong fight back yet. I think there is too much
negativity surrounding the UK and Sterling making investors very wary of going anywhere near the currency. That said I do think that in the long term we will start to see some more euro weakness and could see rates start to push back up. The Eurozone is being heavily supported by Germany at the moment with France, Spain and Italy all seeing contracting economies. In my opinion if we see any hint of negativity come from Germany the euro could really start to suffer.

If you have a currency requirement and would like to talk about how market movements may affect your currency transfer please contact me direct on atr@currencies.co.uk

 

GBPEUR rates recover at record rates (Steve Eakins)

In yesterday’s trading session the GBPEUR rates raced up by the largest movement we have seen for months.  From a 15 months low of 1.1460 rates closed yesterday at a high of 1.1665.  A movement of nearly 2 cents was seen saving £2,600 for clients with a €200,000 purchase in under 24 hours.  Even though rates are still close to record lows that movement again shows how the markets can surprise everyone.  Here at Foreign Currency Direct PLC you will see two large differences compared to the banks and many currency brokers. Firstly you get access to award winning exchange rates saving you money when in a direct comparison. Secondly we help pro-actively rather than reactively. We won’t simply say that you need to trade straight away. As markets move over the week there will be opportunities to get better prices on your exchange. So if you have a currency need please do contact us to see if you can save some money!!  Contact us on the normal telephone number or email me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk

What remains this week for exchange rates?

Generally we expect to see GBPEUR rates fall today due to PMI  figures and Retail figures for Europe. These are both being released and are expected to show an improvement in the single currency and as a result strengthen the Euro.  Following that we have the Interest rate decision for both the UK and Europe on Thursday along with Manufacturing, Productivity and Order counts for the UK on Thursday morning.  This will make Thursday the busiest day this week and the day anyone willing to take a risk should be glued to the FX markets.  It is very important due to the data coming out of the UK (excluding the interest rate decision,) is the first for 2013 and importantly the first indications on growth for the UK and the potential avoidance of a triple dip recession in the United Kingdom. If you would like some professional assistance timing your trade feel free to contact us here. We can also provide a pro-active strategy for your situation if of interest.  Register for updates and information by emailing hse@currencies.co.uk

Thanks you,

Steve Eakins

Elite Trader

hse@currencies.co.uk

Is this the low for GBPEUR?

I expect there will be further GBP weakness in 2013 but for the time being (subject iof course to worse data) the immediate pressure is off. Talk yesterday of political issues in Spain caused some Euro weakness and helped the pound to claw back some of the losses from Friday.

The next milestone before Thursday’s big news is this morning at 09.30 with UK PMI Services data which will underline whether yesterday’s GBP strength was justified.

All eyes are probably on Thursday however. There is a Spanish bond auction too this week so it will be interesting to see how GBPEUR reacts. Without some overly negative GBP  news I cannot see a real move below 1.148 and even with some negative Euro news I cannot see a move above 1.20.

If you are considering a currency exchange and would like more information on all of your options and assistance with getting the best rate of exchange, please feel free to contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.