Monthly Archives: April 2013

What can we expect on the pound euro exchange rate this week?

Morning readers,

And if in the UK how good to see some sunshine!

In summary this week on GBPEUR I think we may see some downward pressure again on sterling but Thursday is the key date which will determine where rates go. Regarding sterling growth of 0.3% is hardly anything to get too excited about! Ineed the economy was flat for the last 6 months (with -0.3% growth in Q4 2012).

This week look out for PMI surveys for the UK, Europe and US. PMI is Purchasing Managers Index and the data is released on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd working day of every month. It is snapshot of economic activity in the previous month. The data will therefore be more up to date than the recent GDP data and usually affects short term movements on rates.

Thursday too is the ECB (European Central Bank) Interest Rate decision. There is a possibility the ECB will cut the Euro base interest rate which would weaken the currency, hence making it more attractive to buy.

Are you considering anymore transactions for which I can keep an eye on the market? Registerin an interest with me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

I work as a specialist currency broker and our personal proactive service is designed to get our clients the most from the market.

Have a good week!

Jonathan

Sterling rates SPIKE, GBPEUR 3 month high, GBPUSD 2 month high (STEVE EAKINS)

Yesterday’s GDP figures surprised most analysts by showing a growth of 0.3% meaning the UK avoided falling a triple dipp recession.  This moved the markets significantly creating a SPIKE and giving quick moving clients the chance to buy euros at a near 3 month high and Dollar at a 2 month high.  But will the rates continue to climb?

My personal view is that even though the data showed an improvement I cannot see the pound gaining any momentum as the economic outlook is not great. The economy is where it was 6 months ago as this gain equals out last quarters fall. However disposable funds are being squeezed, the construction industry is struggling and unemployment is up.  Analysts are also suggesting that the Bank of England could extend their Quantitative Easing (QE) program in a few week’s time; Putting more pounds in circulation traditionally weakens its value, so clients holding sterling may not want to get too confident and limiting your exposure to any correction may be wise.

To register for these SPIKE notifications or to take advanatage of these currenct levels contact us today. Either via the normal number or email me, Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk

Have a good weekend.

 

Sterling Spikes as UK Avoids Recession (Andrew Bromley)

The eagerly awaited GDP announcement of this morning was always destined to impact the currency markets. The 0.3% growth reported this morning has seen Sterling strengthen its position against all currencies, including an improvement of 1.1% (at time of publish) against the Euro.

This is an opportunity that Euro Buyers have taken advantage of today, and I expect the same trend to continue tomorrow. It may be some time before we see rates back in the 1.20s, so if you have a Euro transaction coming up it may be wise to get in contact to discuss your options.

 

All is not lost for Euro sellers, as trading today would still be a marked improvement in comparison to most of last years positions. If you are thinking of selling Euros and are trying to decide when is the best time to get the best rate, do get in touch to discuss upcoming ‘market events’ that will affect your currency.

I work for a market leading Foreign Exchange company, with various awards from ‘The Times’ and ‘The Telegraph’, including best exchange rates.

You can reach me on 0800 328 5884 or email me AJB@currencies.co.uk .

Andrew Bromley

GBPEUR Soars!

For the first time in many months we have some positive news for the pound! Hurrah! The UK did not triple dip and the pound has strengthened improving by well over 1% against the euro so far.

We have been warning about the importance of today for months as we knew it had the potential to be a market mover. If you have currency transactions to consider involving the GBPEUR rate today will have changed the picture for you. What will rates do now is the big question!

The pound looks set to find more support and the lower 1.13-1.15 levels do for the time being look very much out of the question. If you have a transaction to consider involving the pound or euro in the coming weeks we can provide information on where the market is going and what may happen. For more information on securing the very best rates of exchange versus the banks and other companies, please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

The Calm Before the Storm? (Matthew Vassallo)

It has been a eerily quiet day on the currency markets as anticipation builds ahead of tomorrows key release. Much has been made of the upcoming UK Gross Domestic Product figures and what the outcome will mean for the UK economy and the knock on effect it will have on the Pound.

Personally, I expect us to avoid a recession by the skin of our teeth but I don’t think we will necessarily see much positive movement for GBP against the EUR. With news that Italy is on the verge of forming a coalition government and an acceptance by investors that regardless of tomorrow’s result it is likely the Pound will continue to struggle in the coming weeks, I feel we may even see a move back towards 1.1650 on GBP/EUR. The UK economy continues to be hampered by a stagnant economy and poor growth forecasts and this is not going to change overnight, regardless of tomorrows official figures.

Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we are able to provide our clients not only with award winning rates of exchange but a bespoke service designed to give you the client, as much insight into the markets as possible. If you would like to find out the type of rates or contracts we offer, or need to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements then please call us on 0044 1494 787 478 or email me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

How Will UK ‘GDP Data’ Affect GB Pound – Euro Exchange Rates? (Andrew Bromley)

Thursday 25th April sees the release of the UK Q1 GDQ figures, which have the potential to impact exchange rates substantially!

If you are considering buying Euros, then do get in contact to discuss your options. If Sterling drops to the six month low mark of  1.1430 on the back of negative GDP figures, then you would find a purchase of €200,000 would cost you an extra £4,600!

Tomorrow sees the release of BBA (British Bankers Association) measured Mortgage Approvals for March, and the CBI (Confederation of British Industry) Distributive Trades Survey. Although these on their own would generally not have a large effect on Sterling, when coupled with the hype surrounding potential poor UK GDP data, there is every chance that Sterling could take a hit. I don’t think that we will bottom out at the February figures in the 1.14s, however in the last seven days we have seen an instance where Sterling slipped in to the 1.15s rapidly!

Amazingly, there is concern within the single currency linking Scotland to further Euro uncertainty. As Scotland’s readies itself to vote on independence, Euro Zone members have voiced their concerns on members sharing currencies that aren’t the Euro. This has the potential to be a real banana skin for the Euro. Should Scotland vote on independence (unlikely and unwise in my opinion), the Euro-zone would look to hurry the Scots along with either their own currency, or immediate implementation of the single currency. As with the Cypriot Crisis, a small part of the Euro-zone has the potential to make waves on a huge scale!

If you consider yourself risk averse and want to find out what options there are available to guarantee rates of exchange, feel free to drop me an email AJB@currencies.co.uk or call me 01494 725 353.

I work for a market leading Foreign Exchange company, with various awards from ‘The Times’ and ‘The Telegraph’, including best exchange rates.

Andrew Bromley

 

 

 

Busy week for GBPEUR, what can we expect the rates to do?

There is a whole host of economic data still to come this week and it looks to me like those most prepared will get the best deals. With no clear direction being established on the exchange rate pairing we are seeing lots of volatility which will affect your rate.

The exchange rate is very sensitive to economic data at present and Thursday is without doubt the big day with news on whether or not the UK economy has been in a triple dip recession. If you are considering an exchange soon, it is really worth making sure you have explored all of your options before you make a decision.

If the UK is in the dreaded triple dip it is likely the pound will lose a cent or two against most currencies. On the other hand if we are not, then it is likely the pound will gain up to a cent. The importance of the data cannot be overstated and it is highly likely those who are the most prepared will be the ones who get the best deals.

Our specialist service is designed to ensure our clients are well informed and up to speed on the latest news in the market. We are working with the rates all day long and have a wealth of experience in managing the needs of clients, both corporate and private. Even if your exchange is just a one-off speaking with us is very much worth your time. For a free no obligation discussion of how we can better the banks and other companies please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you. If you are unsure about anything please feel free to contact me on the email address. The savings we can offer versus the banks are very strong reasons to consider what we can offer.

GBPEUR Forecast – ‘Up a bit, down a bit’

GBPEUR proved yesterday again to the market why it is one of the most unpredictable pairs right now. In early morning trade an increase in UK Unemployment data caused the pound to lose ground with rates dropping to 1.1577. Then within a few hours a hint of the ECB (European Central Bank) cutting their interest rates caused rates to soar back up to 1.17!

If you have a transaction to consider this will make planning and trading at the best price difficult but not impossible. With Retail Sales due shortly for the UK and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data due for the UK next week there is bound to be more volatility on the horizon.

To put my neck on the line I think rates will drop a cent or so to the 1.15-1.16 again before rising next week up to 1.18 following good GDP numbers. Getting the best rates is achieved through forward planning and an awareness of all of your options. I am a specialist foreign exchange broker with many years of experience helping people move money abroad at the best rates and best time. For a free, no obligation discussion of all of your options please feel free to contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing about your situation and offering solutions

Jonathan Watson

GBPEUR forecasts fall, rates at month low and falling. SPIKE NOTIFICATION. Best exchange rates (Steve Eakins)

Rates of exchange have already started to fall this week, earlier than I had expected.  Yesterday the IMF cut their forecasts for growth in the UK which resulting in sterling losses across a basket of major currencies. The bad news for euro buyers is that I don’t expect the rate to climb up soon, in fact I think rates will fall further by the end of the week. Later today we have UK Unemployment figures and Bank of England minutes.  I don’t expect much from either report and think tomorrow is the day to watch as we have UK Retail Figures being released.  Due to the weather conditions through March when most people could not get to work, nether mind the shops a big fall is expected and is likely to push buying euros rates down.

We are currently trading close to a month low, even though it is painful I would still urge euro buyers that need to buy this week to move sooner rather than later, or at least to limit their exposure with limit or stop loss orders.

The good news is clearly there for euro sellers as you are trading at a month high.  A lot of our euro seller clients took advantage of the SPIKE yesterday following the comments from the IMF.  If you are looking for help achieving the best prices, spikes are normally when they occur.  This is when the market moves quickly to price in new information.  The problem with SPIKES is that they do not last long, normally minutes rather than hours so you have to act quickly to get the best price.  Here we offer a SPIKE NOTIFICATION service where we contact clients in a position to move quickly when these occur.  So if you have a need and are looking for the best price this may be of benefit as there are still several influential data releases due over the next few days.

To register for SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS simple email your situation and contact details to hse@currencies.co.uk I will contact you to get an understanding of your situation and on the basis that you are ready to go we can activate this service for you.

GBPEUR looks set to drop before making a recovery in the next week or two

This week looks like it could be a bad week for sterling and I think Wednesday will be the key date. Wednesday morning we will learn if the Bank of England considered anymore QE (Quantitative Easing) at their last meeting back at the start of the month. We are expecting no real changes but it is unlikely we will see anything that would give sterling a lift. Most of the data towards the end of last month for the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) to base their decision on was poor and henceforth we may see some of this sentiment reflected in the voting.

This would lead to GBP weakness and I think even if we don’t see the above actually happen, more often than not we do see GBP weakness before the Minutes in anticipation of a negative piece of news.

Looking into next week we have GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data for the pound which is now widely expected to show growth for the first quarter of 2013. If you are looking for slightly better rates then this may be the opportunity you are waiting for. Having said that it could easily show a contraction which would be GBP negative as everyone had been expecting.

It is impossible to tell you exactly what will happen in the future. And as much as I enjoy looking after my clients and making forecasts, if I genuinely knew exactly what would happen I would probably not be telling everyone – unless you were really nice to me :D. What I can do is highlight the important upcoming events and make predictions which will allow you to make an informed decision on how to approach your transactions.

I have personally assisted thousands of private clients with their currency transfers when moving abroad or back to the UK. I also help many businesses in the UK manage their exposure to the currency markets.

For more information on the GBPEUR rates and how to ensure you trade at the best rates and with the right knowledge, please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

I am happy to take any questions on the markets or our services, please note there is no charge for our service. For more information on what I can offer and how it all works, please contact me as above, I look forward to hearing from you.

GBPEUR exchange rates this week, when to buy euros, when to sell euros? (Steve Eakins)

Currency markets are traditionally driven by 4 factors referred to as the “currency compass.”  These are:

  • Acts of terror
  • Acts of god – for example the snow in the UK last month
  • Political uncertainty – for example comments from heads of central banks
  • Economic data – GDP figures, interest rate changes (there are about 30 reports that are watched keenly each month from every country.)

When you are making your decision on when to complete your currency purchase you need to be happy with the current level and have a view on wheat may be around the corner that could change markets.

Weekend update

Over the weekend Ireland and Portugal both were granted extensions to their loans from the EU/IMF of a further 7 years.  This makes the recovery more long winded but avoids the risk of a further bailout being needed, creating some euro strength first thing this morning as I expected and mentioned in my blog last week, revisit it by clicking here.

We also saw data from China showing a slowdown in growth from an expected 8% to 7.7%, this has weakened economies dependant on their growth so it is now over a 1% cheaper to buy Australia Dollard (AUD) and New Zealand Dollars (NZD.)

This week forecast

This week focus in the UK will be political and economic. There is a host of data for the UK this week with the key day being Wednesday before a widely expected drop on Thursday.

On Tuesday Production Price index and Consumer Price index are released and expected to show a contraction, sterling weakness is expected as a result. On Wednesday we have Unemployment change and The Bank of England minutes. This has the potential to change the markets significantly as it gives the market a view form inside the BOE with regards to Quantitative Easing. If this increases expect rates to fall, if the information decreases the likelihood of more QE rates are probably going to stay steady or get slightly better. Thursday sees UK Retail figures which are expected to show a steep drop due to the weather we saw in march stopping people get to the high streets. I certainly was not out spending, where you?

So a busy week, buyers I would move before Thursdays Retail figures. If you like a risk maybe take the gamble over the BOE minutes but otherwise I would be buying beforehand.  Buyers of the pound so selling euros or selling dollars, I would be inclined to wait until the end of the week as your levels will probably improve.

These are my views at the moment but are subject to change as forecasts and commentary change.  If you are not sure what outcome is positive or negative for your currency transfer please do contact me STEVE EAKINS at hse@currencies.co.uk and I can explain the implications and available options.

If however you want to be kept up to date with pro-active breaking information to make your trade register for SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS via hse@currencies.co.uk

Cypriot Bailout Costs Rise as EUR Uncertainty Continues (Matthew Vassallo)

Reports surfaced during Thursdays trading that indicated the cost of a Cypriot bailout had risen to 23 billion. This now means that Cyprus will have to raise 13 billion EUR, rather than the original 7.5 billion that had been widely reported.

There is now a growing fear that Cyprus will not be able to raise these funds, which would cast serious doubts over its long-term future in the Eurozone. Whilst Cyprus is often seen as a peripheral nation, we have seen previously with Greece and Ireland that even the so called smaller nations have the potential to cause huge problems for the region in terms of a knock on effect, if their debt situation is not managed in the right manner. I shudder to think of the consequences should Spain, France or Italy get to a point where they can no longer keep up with spiralling debts and are forced to consider a EUR exit.

European Central Bank president Mario Draghi has repeatedly reaffirmed his desire to ensure no nation is forced to leave the EUR but this desire has little to do with personal sentiment and more to do with an underlying fear of what may happen to the region should one nation leave and the domino effect it could create. It may well set an extremely dangerous president that could be almost impossible to reverse.

Here at Foreign Currency Direct plc we are able to provide our clients not only with award winning rates of exchange but a bespoke service designed to give you the client, as much insight into the markets as possible. If you would like to find out the type of rates or contracts we offer, or need to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements then please call us on 0044 1494 787 478 or email me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Exchange rates start to fall, buying euros, best exchange rates (Steve Eakins)

Over the last week GBPEUR rates have started to fall once more.  To understand why we really need to understand why the rates first reached the 2 month high 10 days ago.

This was down to Euro weakness rather than Pound strength, like most gains this year for the GBPEUR pairing I would add!  The reason for the Euro weakness came from Portugal as proposed budget reform was stopped within Government.  Like all countries that have taken a bailout from the EU/IMF to keep receiving the stage payments of the bailout they have to keep within tight budget cuts.  As these proposed cuts were stopped it highlighted the uncertainty in Europe and how slow the recovery is taking.  It also added to concerns that they could miss their targets, fail to get needed loans and cause more problems across the single currency block.  This uncertainty was a large contributor in making the Euro the cheapest to buy in 2 months up at 1.1850. Now however they have made cuts elsewhere, avoiding the problem and resolving the concern.  This is turn has pushed rates back down as the inter-bank price now enters the 1.16’s.

So what next for GBPEUR exchange rates, when is the best time to buy?

Well I expect rates to return to the uncertainty we saw at the beginning of the year and for rates to fall rather than climb.  Generally in summary the UK economy is getting no better and is on the edge of another recession,  growth forecasts are poor, unemployment is high and buyers sentiment which many think is key to change the situation is still very poor. Whereas the European situation is not fantastic but is dramatically better than last year when we were all worrying that it was not going to be in existence to see the year out.  The Euro zone is also seeing a huge influx of investment worldwide as the situation in the far East starts to slow.  Japan and China are both slowing creating demand for the euro and making it more expensive to buy.

As a result anyone with euros to buy in the near future I would urge to move sooner rather than later. Buyers of the pound however are at the moment the beneficiary.

For information on how to best time your trade and to get access to award winning rates of exchange feel free to contact me. My name is Steve Eakins and I am an Elite Trader at Foreign Currency Direct PLC in London, please either ing on the normal number and ask for me or email me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk

 

Where next for the GBPEUR rates? When should I sell or buy euros this month?

Unlike the weather which remains as cold as a few weeks ago, the pound has shaken off some of the worst of this year. Concerns over Cyprus and the stability of euro zone banks, plus a slightly better performing pound indicate to me a fairly range bound few weeks of anywhere between 1.16 and 1.19. Significant gains for sterling look limited, as do significant gains for the euro. On balance I expect rates to be higher towards the end of the month as sterling slightly recovers and attention remains on the Euro zone economies.

Tomorrow we have Euro zone GDP at 11 am in the morning. We know the euro zone is struggling but just how bad is it? This first estimate of Q1 2013 today may impact rates on GBPEUR this morning. The euro has been on the back foot due to events in Cyprus and whilst unlikely the fears of bank runs all over Europe aren’t helping matters.

If you have a transfer coming up you can make an enquiry with us. We are specialist currency brokers who can save you money on your exchanges plus offer help with the timing of your transfers.

Please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information at no cost or obligation.

Buying euros, selling Euros, when is the best time to buy? (Steve Eakins)

Today we have the UK Interest Rate Decision, UK Quantitative Easing (QE), European Interest Rate Decision and European Quantitative Easing.  This will make today maybe one of the busiest for the week and or month.

The UK interest rate has now been held for nearly 5 years so there is little chance of any change.  QE in the UK however is a lot more probable and would weaken the pound if confirmed.  The head of the Bank of England has voted for it for several months and failed to get the majority behind him in the monetary policy committee. Last month it was even mentioned in the UK budget that they need to do what they can to increase growth in the UK and QE is a real possibility.  The only reason why they may not is that Mervyn King the head of the Bank leaves in 3 months’ time, it may be that they decide against making such a decision until his replacement is put in place.

In Europe interest rates will probably stay steady, but there is an outside chance a drop could be announced.  This would probably weaken the single currency.  Quantitative Easing is probably off the cards in the Eurozone however commentary from Mario Draghi the head of the European Central Bank can easily swing markets.  His comments will more than likely be on Cyprus and the wider debt crises across Europe will probably result in swings in the next few hours.

So when do I buy?
Well anyone with a currency need may want to buy before this busy period as there is no crystal ball confirming which way the markets will go, whether you lose or gain.  However for those looking at playing over the event will probably want SPIKE NOTIFICATION. This is a service that we offer contacting you with these breaking news releases allowing you to make an educated decision on when to buy.  Equally if you have a target rate that you are trying to achieve a RATE ALERT might be best.  To register for each simply email me Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk with your details.

Here we offer an award winning service providing a proactive service helping you time your trade while giving you access to award winning exchange rates.  If you have found this blog useful feel free to contact us for a quotation on your exchange to se how much you could save. It could be very well spent 10 minutes!

Thank you,

Steve Eakins

Elite Trader

hse@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

 

 

Is this the calm before the storm? GBP/EUR rates could have a busy time ahead. (Alistair Ryan)

It has been a fairly quiet day with regards to GBP/EUR rates, with a high of 1.1807 and a low of 1.1771 but I think this could all change tomorrow. There are a couple of very key data releases coming out tomorrow which have the potential to rock the markets. First up at 12pm we have the Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision where we will find out whether The Bank of England have decided to alter interest rates and we will also see if they have decided on any further Quantitative Easing (QE) in the UK. This will be shortly followed by the same announcements from the Eurozone.

It is widely thought that QE could be announced by both parties which could start off a severe tug of war between Sterling and Euro. My opinion is that if this is announced in both the UK and Eurozone volatility with GBP/EUR rates will be rife and the difference between the high and low of the day could be quite a way away. There is the possibility that only one of the two will announce further QE which would generally weaken that specific currency and we could see the opposing currency soar against it.

GBP/EUR rates have been very volatile for some time now and I can only see this adding to it. If you have an upcoming currency requirement then we have a number of different contract options that can help safeguard your funds against large market movements. If you would like to talk with one of our highly professional, experienced currency brokers then please contact me direct at atr@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR rates start to wobble before Quantitative Easing– Will GBPEUR climb? (STEVE EAKINS)

GBPEUR rates have stayed steady for the majority of this week even with a host of data being released globally as the working week is cut short following the Easter break.  Currently GBPEUR rates are close to a 2 month high for buying making it quite attractive but many are calculating their trade over the next 24 hours.  The key Interest rate decision and Quantitative Easing programs both in the UK and Europe are released tomorrow afternoon.  These will probably be the key releases for exchange rates this week and potentially this month.  Quantitative Easing has the potential to weaken a currency making it cheaper to buy but tomorrow it has been forecasted that more QE could be announced both side of the English Channel.  If this was to be confirmed expect rates to move wildly over the hour period at midday tomorrow.

In the UK it has been largely commented that the QE program will be extended, even being mentioned in the UK budget in March.  In Europe the pressure has been building as it would help the growing debt burden as countries ask for more money and importantly extensions on pay back scheduled. This is adding pressure for capital across the Eurozone which could be filled with more QE.

If you have a currency exchange to make the next 24 hours could be key.  The market will probably price in the expectation of QE from the UK but not from Europe. So if QE is announced both sides of the channel I think GBPEUR rates will probably go up.  This is however speculations, to avoid the risk I would suggest using Limit orders and Stop Loss orders. For information on these tools and how to respond to the market contact us today, feel free to email me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk or on the normal number.