Monthly Archives: June 2013

GBP EUR Forecast – Best Rates of Exchange

On the back of positive manufacturing and house price data of late, we have seen Sterling strengthen to the 1.18 region. It is the fist time for some weeks that Sterling has spiked and has been a welcome window for Euro buyers.

Looking forward, the only thing on the horizon that could potentially affect the GBP EUR pairing is the Bank of England’s incoming Governor Mark Carney. Should Carney look to weaken sterling to increase international import / export business, we may see trading back in the 1.13 region.

It is my opinion that if you are selling Euros and able to hold off for a bit, it may be worth waiting to see how the land lies later on next month.

Should you be buying Euros, I would be tempted to get the transaction sorted sooner rather than later whilst the GBP-EUR rate is close to its year high.

Should you have a transaction planned or would like some pointers in terms of timing it correctly, please feel free to get in contact.

Andrew Bromley

01494 787 478

AJB@currencies.co.uk

The pound has found support, surely rates will only go higher now?

The better than expected economic data this month has really helped sterling to get a lift. The prospects for the pound to make further gains against the euro look quite high although it will take some knocked confidence for the strong euro.

This week there is not a huge amount to get excited about and this may be the perfect opportunity for sellers to enter the market. If you are holding euros and need to sell for GBP, moving sooner really is looking like a good idea.

The likelihood of more QE in the current economic environment is slim and it may be that sterling finds further strength once Mark Carney comes in due to improved confidence that the UK will tackle its debt problems.

Better Construction, Manufacturing and Employment data all pointing to underlying signs of growth in the UK economy. This not only removed the chance of more Qe, it also increases the chance of an interest rate hike next year which would really cause sterling to strengthen.

If you are considering a currency exchange involving pounds and euros I can assist you with information on all of your options that should help you save money. Firstly we provide a much better rate than banks or other sources and secondly we can help with the actual timing of your exchange.

For more information at no cost or obligation please contact me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you and assisting you.

Sterling Euro – Best Rates of Exchange

The word on the street is GDP! 

Next week the Sterling / Euro focus will be on UK GDP revision figures for Quarter One 2013. We saw in April a substantial amount of Sterling strength on the back of a small positive GDP figure (0.3%). I don’t believe that there wll be a revision, but it is worth noting that the strength of the UK economy is portreyed  primarily through GDP.

One of the reasons the 0.3% GDP reading was important for the UK is it meant we missed recession! Since that announcement, the UK GDP for two quarters in 2010 have been revised from negative figures and painted a much ‘rosier’ picture fo what was deemed a financially gloomy period.

Sould we see no revision, you may see minor Sterling strength. Should we see an improvement on 0.3%, we could look at trading at the peak of the 4 month range  around 1.1850.

However, a decrease could see the Euro regain  ground on Sterling and push trading towards 1.15.

My opinion would be for Euro Sellers to exchange their currency pre Thursday as I don’t think the GDP will be negative.

Should you have a currency requirement, please feel free to contact me on 01494 787 478, or email ajb@currencies.co.uk .

Thank you for reading, have a good weekend!

Andrew Bromley

P.s, Come on the British and Irish Lions!!

How to Get the Best Exchange Rates (Matthew Vassallo)

Bank of England Minutes Mean Further Quantitative Easing Likely

GBP levelled off against the EUR during Wednesday’s trading, following a sharp loss in the markets yesterday. Tuesdays inflation figures were certainly not viewed as a positive by investors and this morning’s Bank of England (BoE) minutes also lead to some questions, as to which direction our economy will be taking over the coming months.

Whilst  the UK economy has been improving of late, our trade deficit remains alarmingly wide and this morning’s BoE minutes, indicated it is likely we will see further Quantitative Easing (QE) in the coming weeks. QE will often be used to kick start an economy that is stagnating but has not had the desired effect when used recently. In this instance it may be that QE is being lined up to help bring the Pounds value down, in order allow the Eurozone (our largest trading partner) to increase their trade levels once again. This in turn should narrow our trade deficit and move economy forward.

Here at www.gbpeuroforecast.com we are able to provide our clients not only with award winning rates of exchange but a bespoke service designed to give you the client, as much insight into the markets as possible. If you would like to find out the type of rates or contracts we offer, or need to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, then please call us on 0044 1494 787 478 or email me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Timing for the Best Exchange Rates!

This week holds some key Data the could affect GBP-EUR.

Most importantly are the Bank of England Minutes on Thursday, an indication of the Bank of England’s thoughts regarding further Quantitative Easing. Should you be looking to buy Euros I would be tempted to consider your position pre Thursday. Should the vote ratio be more in favour of further Quantitative Easing that the current split (6:3 against), then there is a very real threat of Sterling Weakness.  

We are currently trading 1.1775 within a Cent of the year high. You may feel that the risks of market volatility come Thursday could out-way the opportunity of buying at these levels.

With regard to Euro Sellers, you may wish to wait until after Thursdays Minutes as should we see a weakness, a good buying opportunity may arise.

Data to come…

Tuesday

UK Consumer Price Index (month on month and Year on Year) and ECB President (Mario Draghi) Speech.

Thursday

Bank of England Minutes (as mentioned above) and the ‘Markit’ Manufacturing Survey (a survey of businesses to gauge confidence) 

Feel free to get in contact if you have Euros to buy that you are unsure of timing correctly. It is also worth dropping me a line should you not have fulls funds available yet, as there are options available to you. Depending on your GBP EUR situation, you may be able to fix your rate of exchange and avoid any further unfavourable market movements.

Drop me a line on the trading floor to have a chat!

Andrew Bromley

01494 787 478

ajb@currencies.co.uk

 

GBPEUR dips but remains well supported

Sterling has been winning the war this week but still looks vulnerable to further shocks. These could be witnessed as early as next week with the Bank of England Minutes. Briefly we were treated to rates over 1.18 on Wednesday as the positive news regarding Employment helped the pound to make gains on the euro.

Further deteriorations this week in the employment situation in Greece and the news that their state television broadcaster has been closed were further signs of events spiralling out of control. Just how and when is this situation going to recover? Market have been largely ignoring the Eurozone crisis due to speculation about Federal Reserve ‘tapering’, effectively cutting off QE.

Next week there is much data which to me would lead to GBP strength and push rates back over 1.18. If you have a transfer to consider and would like more information on what is driving your rate, pleas contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Best Rates of Exchange GBP – EUR

We came close today (1.1797) to yesterdays high of 1.1808.

The ECB (Eurozone Central Bank)  released its monthly report, and decidied to keep the key interest rates unchanged. The expectation is that price pressures will remain subdued, but that the risks for price stability outlook are broadly balanced. To you and I the ECB are trying to convince the markets that the Single Currency is a safe bet, even with the bubbling couldrons of Austerity Debt accross the nations.

ECB inflation expectations medium term meanwhile are “anchored in line with the Governing Council’s aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, two per cent”.

I believe that the Euro will continue this weeks weakness and we could se trading in the mid 1.18s by close of trading tomorrow. Euro buyers could do well whilst the rates are in this region, as 1.1850 is incredibly close to the year high.

Feel free to get in contact if you have a Sterling / Euro transaction that you need assistance in timing correctly. It is also worth dropping me a line, should you not have the Currency available yet, as there are options available to you. Depending on your situation, you may be able to fix your rate of exchange and avoid any further unfavourable market movements – a distinct possibility!!

Drop me a line on the trading floor to have a chat!

Andrew Bromley

01494 787 478

AJB@currencies.co.uk

How to get the best exchange rates on GBP/EUR? (Matthew Vassallo)

UK Unemployment Figures Fall

The UK economy was given a further boost today following the release of the latest unemployment figures. Although unemployment only fell by 5,000, the sentiment was positive and this continued the recent run of better economic data. It is this data that will shift market sentiment and give investors a clear indication of how that particular economy is fairing.

We are now seeing a more consistent run of data in the UK, which is slowly bringing market confidence back to the Pound. Whilst the UK economy has a long way to go until it is truly broken free from the current debt crisis, things do seem to be improving on a wider scale. The housing market has picked up and with strong Service Sector data announced last week (this accounts for roughly 75% of our economic output), I am feeling more optimistic about the future of the UK economy than I have for a while. This optimism must be tempered, if for no other reason than when it comes to a full blown recovery, I am firmly of the opinion once bitten, twice shy.

On the EUR side we have been hearing mixed reports about their own recovery process. French President Francois Hollande was extremely upbeat on his recent visit to Japan, where he claimed that the Eurozone debt crisis “was over”. Highly unlikely when you consider the high unemployment and low growth forecasts that continue to hamper the regions chances of a long-term economic recovery. In terms of data we have the European Central Bank (ECB) monthly report tomorrow, which will give an insight into the various economic policies inside the Eurozone and could cause GBP/EUR rates to spike.

Personally I think we will see resistance continue to be met around 1.18, with a move back towards 1.15 a strong possibility as we move through the second half of 2013. The reason for this is that in order to kick start our export industry and narrow our ever widening trade gap, measures will have to be put in place to devalue a Pound, which at the current levels is alienating an ever shrinking Eurozone economy.

Here at www.gbpeuroforecast.co.uk we are able to provide our clients not only with award winning rates of exchange but a bespoke service designed to give you the client, as much insight into the markets as possible. If you would like to find out the type of rates or contracts we offer, or need to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, then please call us on 0044 1494 787 478 or email me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

GBPEUR rates stay steady ready for unemployment figures., GBPEUR prices, best exchange rates, selling euros (Steve Eakins)

Sterling exchange rates have stayed very steady today compared to last week.  Currency is normally driven by four factors; referred to as the Currency Compass:

      • Acts of Terror
      • Acts of God
      • Political instability
      • Economic data

The first two we have to all be rather reactive to, it can be anything from floods like we are seeing over Europe affecting the productivity of farmers to hurricanes in the US. Political instability is something which is a little more forecastable however never a definite.  This can be anything from votes on the UK’s membership to Europe to comments from the head of the Bank of England.  The last, Economic data, is by far the most forecast able and is how many can highlight potential days of interest.  There are around 30 reports each month reporting on the previous months activity as a result a large proportion are released at the beginning of the month.  The market will have an expectation on what these data releases will show and this will be priced into the market beforehand, normally you are looking at the hour up to its release.  When the figure is confirmed if it is different from the figure which is priced in already the markets will move to reflect this.  This movement can be significant and is traditionally referred to as a SPIKE.

Data this week includes:

Tuesday 9:30 BST                             UK                          Industrial and Manufacturing Productivity – This is expected to show a better picture for the UK and could push GBPEUR prices up by 0.5%.

Wednesday 9:30 BST                      UK                          Unemployment figures – Expected to be similar to last month so no significant change is expected. – GBPEUR up 0.5% potentially

Wednesday 10 BST                         Europe                 Industrial Productivity – Expected to show a better figure when compared to last month so for the euro to become more expensive to buy – GBPEUR down 0.25% potentially

Thursday 9:00 BST                            Europe                 Monthly report – This is more of a political event and may include new policy’s being announced with an aim to increase European growth by creating jobs.  This may make the euro more expensive if confirmed. – GBPEUR down 0.5% potentially

Friday 10:00 BST                               Europe                 Consumer Price index and Employment change – Expected to show an improvement and again making the euro more expensive to buy – GBPEUR down 0.5% potentially

In summary, looking at the data expected this week it would seem that GBPEUR buyers may want to move on Wednesday morning, euro sellers might be better off at the back end of the week.  These forecasts are of cause subject to change if you would like our assistance with keeping you up to date feel free to get in contact.  We can discuss how these could potentially affect your situation and what it means to your money.  Likewise for a quotation on any currency please email hse@currencies.co.uk

 

 

When to buy euros?

The recent GBPEUR trend has been upward and consequently it is well worth seeking out the best deals. I expect rates to continue to improve so if this is something you need to keep an eye on why no t make contact with one of our team?

The Bank of England have not looked at any further QE this month and this has helped sterling to make some small gains against most currencies including the Euro. GBPEUR is now the highest it has been all week knocking on the door of 1.18.

I think if you are buying euros and can get up to the 1.18’s you are doing very well. If you are selling euros I would be very careful about gambling for further improvements in the rate. The likelihood is that rates will actually become worse for you.

The ECB press conference and rate decision is still to come this afternoon, let us see what happens! If you have a transfer to consider on GBPEUR and would like some information on the current market, please get in touch with me Jonathan directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will the GBP/EUR hit 1.20? (Matthew Vassallo)

The Pound has surged against the EUR during Wednesday’s trading, providing euro buyers with some excellent opportunities. When you consider the low we were at back in March of this year (1.1370) and predictions at that time was for further EUR strength, we can see what a marked improvement there has been over the past couple of months.

The question many are asking now is whether GB/EUR rates will hit 1.20 over the coming weeks and personally I think we have a fair chance. Whilst problems in the Eurozone are almost certain to continue, there are signs of the green shoots of recovery here in the UK. The housing market is rapidly improving and when you take into account today’s Service Sector data, there are certainly reasons to be optimistic. The UK’s Service Sector, which accounts for approximately 75% of the economy, grew at its fastest rate since March 2012 and will give hope that incoming Bank of England (BoE) governor will be taking over an economy, vastly improved to the one we saw even 6 months ago.

However, despite this recent upturn I am still very sceptical about a full blown recovery, especially whilst our trade deficit remains so wide. This trade deficit has come about due to the fact we are spending far more on imports than we are making from exports and until this situation changes, the UK economy will never be performing at its full capacity. I believe any further spike for GBP will be short lived, as we may find the new BoE governor stamping his own authority on the position with aggressive rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE). The aim of further QE will be to devalue the Pound, in order to enhance our chances of the Eurozone (our largest trade partner) trading again, which in turn will kick start the UK economy.

We have some more key economic data coming out tomorrow, so anyone with a GBP/EUR requirement should keep an eye on the BoE and European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions and Mario Draghi’s subsequent press conference. Whilst rates are expected to be kept on hold, any deviation could cause additional volatility on GBP/EUR rates.

Here at www.gbpeuroforecast.co.uk we are able to provide our clients not only with award winning rates of exchange but a bespoke service designed to give you the client, as much insight into the markets as possible. If you would like to find out the type of rates or contracts we offer, or need to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, then please call us on 0044 1494 787 478 or email me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

GBPEUR rates calm before potential QE, GBPEUR rates, currency prices, Selling Euros, Buying Euros (Steve Eakins)

GBPEUR rates have stayed steady today, the calm before the storm some say.  This week the busiest days are yet to come with both European GDP figures tomorrow and the Key Interest Rate Decision both in Europe and the UK on Thursday.  GDP figures are expected to show an improving picture for the single currency and make the euro more expensive to buy.  Thursday’s Interest Decision in the UK and Europe will certainly make for an very interesting 120 minutes.  Europe is expected to use the event as an opportunity to talk up the euro once again;  expect comments around an improving picture, job creation and potentially over-night interest rate cuts.  All this should make the euro more expensive still.  The UK on the other hand is more of a wild card,  there are people forecasting more QE to be announced.  Personally I think it will be in July but it is a risk everyone should be aware of!  The view is that as inflation falls in the UK more QE will be started in line with a suggestion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) a few weeks ago.

Either way longer term many see more QE as a sure thing as the new governor of the Bank of England (BOE) changes the UK focus from Consumer to Export, weakening the pound as a result.

So what do you do if you have a currency transfer to make?

Well people buying the pound have been rubbing their hands of late, as there seems to be plenty of potential opportunities for a the price to get better towards the end of the week and beyond.  Pound sellers and GBPEUR traders however have been struggling to find anything to pin their hopes on for rates to improve.  It seems the general view is that if you have a GBPEUR trade; buy now, limit your exposure or manage your risk.  Personally I carry that same view so would suggest if you are in that situation to follow suit.

Longer term there was an interesting article in the papers over the weekend suggesting that the pound could lose 15% this year!  This I think is someone making a name for themselves however a 5% drop is a lot more probable if the changes in the BOE policy are confirmed.  This would make rates drop down towards the 1.10’s and would add £7,000 on a €150,000 purchase!!!!

If you would like information about how this could affect you please feel free to contact us. Our award winning service has helped people save money for over 12 years and I am confident we can save you some money. Simply email me, Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk for more information.

Look forward to hearing from you.

 

What to expect on GBPEUR today and later this week…

The start of a new month brings a whole new set of economic data to move the currency markets. The first week of the month is often a week where we see movements that will shape the direction of the rate for the rest of the month.

Most importantly on Thursday we have the Bank of England and European Central Bank interest rate decisions. Whilst no changes in policy are expected the press conference after the ECB meeting is often a market mover.

Potentially we could see some more Quantitative Easing by the BoE which would weaken the pound. However on the whole economic data has been better and yesterday’s good news for Manufacturing should provide a good reason not launch more QE.

Looking at today we have Construction data at 09.30 am. This and tomorrow’s Services data could easily cause some movement on the pound and if last month’s improved GDP data is anything to go by, I expect sterling to find some strength and rates on GBPEUR to get better.

If you are considering any currency exchanges please contact me personally for all of the information you need to make an informed decision on when to execute your currency exchanges. The current trend is looking quite good for Euro buyers, but bad for euro sellers. For that reason I think Euro sellers should move sooner.

For a full overview of everything involved in trading at the best prices please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Achieve The Best Rates of Exchange! Andrew Bromley

Eurozone GDP and Interest Rate Decision

 

The Eurozone has seen a bit of resurgence of late as strong economic data has been released from some of its major economies. The spotlight has also switched from the Eurozone to Sterling which has taken some of the heat off of Mario Draghi (Head of the European Central Bank) short term.

Eurozone GDP is announced Wednesday with the likelihood of another small negative figure. The main focus point however will be the interest rate decision for the Eurozone on Thursday followed by the associated Speech and Question & answer session. The link between Mario Draghis comments and the trading floor is quite often very important, as we have seen the GBP-EUR currency pair shift nearly a cent in either direction if any of his comments are alarming!

If you have a Euro Sale that you are considering, I would be inclined to consider your position pre Thursday. Should the ECB cut their interest rate again, or if Draghi moves the markets against the Euro, a short term spike against Euro sellers may reduce the value of your currency significantly. For example, a shift of 1% against you would mean a Sterling figure reduced by £1,700 on a £200,000 transfer!

Andrew Bromley

Currency Trader

Foreign Currency Direct PLC

01494 787 478