Monthly Archives: July 2013

Best selling Euro rates for 4 and a half months (Ben Amrany)

For those of you with a Euro requirement the pound has been on a 7 day continuous losing streak against
the Euro falling to a four and a half month low.
The last time we were at these levels was just before the Cyprus event. The main reason for the losses is down to the Bank of England’s forward guidance policy. July was the first time the Bank gave this forward guidance and sterling lost 2 cents in the space of under a week.

Tomorrow is another key decision and although we are not expecting anything in terms of a movement in the interest rates or further QE, any further forward guidance with comments surrounding a long period of low interest rates could cause sterling exchange rates to fall even further and we may just test the lows of the years. If you have a requirement coming up in August or September I would keep a close eye out for this release as it could be crucial as to how the pound performs going forward.

If you are concerned and do not need the funds immediately you can always forward buy the currency to give you the peace of mind in knowing how far your funds are going for you. This takes away exchange rate fluctuations and gives you the peace of mind that the loses can’t continue. Feel free to contact me and I can give you more information on this contract type. If you have an exchange over the next week or two then acting before tomorrow’s mid-day decision may be a wise move.

The likelihood of the pound staying this week against the Euro for a long time Is slim. There are still numerous issues in Europe but while the European Central Bank do everything they can to keep the Euro intact the single currency continues to strengthen.

If you look at the Euro against the USD & Aussie Dollar you will see how strong the Euro is. At some stage it will reverse but it could be a few months off at least so do not get caught out waiting for an increase in the value of
sterling in the near term.

 

If you are looking at buying or selling the Euro then please feel free to conatct me to discuss yoru requirement and the options that are available to you. I can be contacted at bma@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Euro Dropping (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro rates continue to fall for the seventh day in a row. German jobs data this morning shows unemployment levels are better than expected which has seen the Euro strengthen by 0.4% since the start of the trading session. Even though UK GDP came out positive at 0.6% the figure was exactly as expected so the currency markets didn’t necessarily see this as good news.

Later this morning there is a lot of inflation data due out which is likely to see Euro strength continue. Tomorrow both the Bank of England and European Central Bank announce their interest rate decision. Both are expected to remain the same but keep a close eye/ear on the rhetoric from Mario Draghi at 130pm tomorrow following the decision.

Tonight the US Federal Reserve will make an announcement about their current QE programme. If they decide to slow it down or stop it we could see Dollar strength which often denotes Euro weakness.

For more information about how to save money when buying or selling Euros feel free to contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Takes Heavy Losses! How to Achieve the Best GBP/EUR Exchange Rates (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP has taken some heavy losses during Tuesday’s trading, with the Pound losing almost a cent against the EUR and the USD. These loses have come about due to investors selling off Sterling positions, causing the Pound to lose market value. There is no clear indication as to why this negative spike occured and certianly no economic data release which started the trend. However, news that the US are starting to ‘taper’ or pull back their Quantitative Easing programme could have had a negative effect amongst investors in terms of any knock on affect for the global markets, which has in turn led to them selling off some of their riskier postions (GBP could be classed under this braket in the current financial climate).

What we do know is that the Bank of England (BoE) are keen to keep the Pounds value down against the EUR, in order that we do not alienate our largest trade partner even further. Personally I expect to see GBP/EUR levels continue to move back towards 1.14, unless UK economic data can act as some sort of respite and push levels back up. Key data this week includes the BoE interest rate decision on Thursday and Markit Manufactuing data on the same day, which is meant to show an improvement on previosu figures.

If you do have an upcoming currency requirement and would like a comparative exchange rate against your current provider, or would like to be kept up to date with all the relevant market movements then please call one of our brokers today on 0044 1494 787 478, or you can email me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

GBPEUR looks set to remain in the lower ranges. I would be very surprised to see any major GBP strength

GBPEUR has been gently falling all month and I see no reason why this will not continue. The current UK outlook is pretty grim reading with interest rates set to remain on hold for an extended period of time. Despite the problems in the euro area there is a wealth of confidence behind the euro which means it remains supported. Should you be considering any further exchanges involving buying euros, moving sooner may be the best course of action to avoid disappointment.

This Thursday we have the UK Bank of England and ECB interest rate decisions which may create some movement on rates. I feel it more than likely this will lead to some better rates for selling euros but will not necessarily help those buying euros. To ensure you get the very best rates on your currency exchanges, it is well worth employing the service of a currency broker to monitor and assist you. If you would like more information on what to consider at present when making your currency you can make a direct enquiry with me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

Sterling stays steady ahead of QE update next week (Steve Eakins)

This week the GBPEUR has been relatively quiet will less than a cent movement from high to low. (This still equates to a £1,100 saving on a €150,000 purchase when timed correctly.)  The biggest news was the GDP figures released yesterday which showed that the UK economy in last 3 months grew at twice the rate of the first 3 months of the year.  It also was the first time that we have seen two consecutive quarters of growth in the UK since 2011.  However many people still ask me:

Why is GBPEUR rate not higher, not over 1.20?

Well the facts still remain that the UK is still not in great shape.  Even though there is a “feel good” factor in the UK due to the recent good weather and sporting wins the economy is still doing rather poorly.  Unemplyment is still very high, wages are still shrinking against inflation, forecasts are for inflation to continue to get bigger, and, nation debt levels are still growing (I know recently the government are saying it is shrinking but what they mean is that it is not growing at the same rate as it was, the deficit is still growing!) Plus our global partners are still not growing either; Europe who are the UK’s largest trading partner is still struggling.

It all points towards the Bank of England needing to stimulat the economy more which means more QE.  This could be as soon as next week however tradionally August is normally a month with no change as Europe clossed down so realistically we are looking at September.

When should I buy my currency, buy euros, buy pounds?

It all depends on the amount you are trading, the time frame you have, the avalibilty of funds and the risk appitete you have.  Here we have access to award winning exchange rates along with tools to help us time trades, see potential Spikes and maximise the market for our clients. So if you need to move funds and want to know how we would approach it please feel free to get in contact, send me an email at hse@currencies.co.uk or via the phone by calling me on 01494 787 478. I will be more than happy to explain how our services work and why I am confident I can save you money.

Thank you,

Steve Eakins

Elite Trader

hse@currencies.co.uk

01494 787 478

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UK GDP – BEST TIME TO BUY EUROS TODAY?

UK GDP released today has got the trading floor talking!

The figure released came in as expected at 0.6% growth. Initially we saw a drop for GBP against the Euro to the day low of 1.1595. GBP has moved steadily back to 1.1625 as I would imagine the dust will settle back around the 1.1630 region.

Looking forwards, there is not a huge amount of UK – Euro data, however the US release their ‘durable goods orders’ at 13:30 UK time. US data if strong could weaken the Euro and the opposite if the US data is weak. USD and EUR are the most heavily traded currency pair and any movement affects the Euro.

Should you have a transaction to book, please feel free to drop me a line to discuss…

Andrew Bromley

AJB@currencies.co.uk

01494 747 478

 

GBPEUR rates fall after Eurozone returns to growth (Tom Holian)

According to the Markit Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index which measures business output the private sector industry is Europe is growing. The measure published this morning showed a growth to 50.4 in July from 48.7 which means an expansion to an 18 month high.

The Eurozone which has been in recession since the end of 2011 means that this data could help to strengthen the single currency which is exactly what has been seen during today’s trading session. However, the currency movement has been rather limited as all attention will now be focussed on the UK GDP figures due out tomorrow morning at 930am. Expectation are for a growth of 0.6% so anything different could cause GBPEUR to move quickly.

If you’re considering making a currency transfer and want to ensure you’re getting competitive exchange rates then feel free to contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

European News Stops the Pounds Gains, For Now – Selling Euros – Buying Pounds – Buying Euros – FX news (Steve Eakins)

European data this morning has not only matched the consensus, but beaten them!  Manufacturing and Services figures were up across the single currency, including big gains in France and Germany.  This has helped to push the euro up in value against a basket of currencies, as I had hoped.  As a result, clients of mine that had made me aware of their needs took advantage this morning, selling euros nearly 0.5 cent better than at the close yesterday.  A whopping saving for one client of over £3,000 on their volume. My view still stands that this is probably going to be the best time to sell euros within the next week.

Tomorrow the UK releases GDP figures for the 2nd quarter of 2013, and a large improvement is expected.  As a result, I would imagine seeing the pound start to gain as soon as this afternoon, as traders start to price in this expectation and ride the market up. (This is day traders of currency making profit as the market moves up.)  Tomorrow at the time of the release, 9:30 BST, I would expect some volatility meaning people that are open to some risk may want to wait.  My view is that if I were buying Euros or selling the Pound, I would trade before the release, as the market prices in the expectation of a gain.  We could see rates hit a MONTH HIGH tomorrow.

Either way, if you have an interest in the currency markets, tomorrow will be a busy one! People will make and lose money, so respect it if you are personally trading, and be comfortable with the risk that you are opening yourself up to.  If you would like a more personal chat about how the next few days could impact your FX transfer, feel free to contact me at hse@currencies.co.uk

With access to award winning exchange rates, we are very comfortable we can save you money, even against banks in Europe and other brokers.  If you are reading this website to have just an insight into the market, feel free to get in contact to make sure you are getting the best price.

Thank you,

Steve Eakins

hse@currencies.co.uk

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UK GDP could give the pound a boost. (Ben Amrany)

The Euro remains quite well supported despite some fears of the Eurozone crisis coming back into play via Portugal. The main driver on the Euro remains EUR/USD movements which are mainly being driven by how Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is reacting to the extension or withdrawal of QE.

With manufacturing data out of the Eurozone today we could see some gains for the Euro should the levels be positive. With Germany a powerhouse of manufacturing within the Eurozone it will give us a good idea of the state of the Eurozone economy.

For GDP/EUR buyers or sellers I feel rates will linger between the 1.1550/1.17 levels for the rest of the month. The higher end should be if the UK GDP comes out positive tomorrow and the lower end should GDP retract slightly for the UK.

There is a lot of speculation that GDP will be positive for the UK so there may be a spike in the market to help you achieve better rates than what is currently available. If you would like information on the service that we offer please feel free to email me at bma@currencies.co.uk

Thank you fr reading

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR should hit 1.17 on Thursday – GBPEUR buyers and sellers take note! and if you want the very best prices on your GBPEUR transfers please contact us!

The currency markets are unpredictable. No one can tell you exactly what will happen. But just like with predictions on other variables – the weather, sports and names of Royal babies, a certain amount of intuition can be applied.

This rings true for this Thursday when we have the latest data for UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product). This is the data for Q2 and the data is expected to be the highest in a very long time. This is sure to lead to some GBP strength although I personally doubt very much it will trigger a significant rally for the pound. The fundamental reasons for GBP weakness well and truly remain. The UK is in tremendous debt and likely to remain so for some time which will be a major drag on confidence. The political uncertainty of how the EU referendum and whether future UK governments will have the same attitude to austerity is also weighing on sterling.

If the data comes in as expected I would expect the pound to rise against the euro to over 1,17. I would view this as a spike to take advantage of and not as the start of significant trend higher. #

If you have a transfer to consider soon planning ahead on an exchange is key to getting the best exchange rates. For a free, no obligation discussion of your transfer and how we can help get you the best deals, please feel free to speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Even if your transfer is just a one off, we can help with the best deals. Please speak to me to find out more.

Jonathan

Pound Rallies Away From a Near Two Year Low Against The Euro (Steve Eakins)

The Pound yesterday had a great day trading against the Euro, gaining over a cent, adding €500 to a £50,000 transfer.  A spike was seen, which meant moving quickly was key to get the best price. People that have registered for a SPIKE notification were informed at the peak and many took advantage.  If this sounds of interest please register your interest via email to hse@currencies.co.uk. Please provide your contact details, the currency pair of interest, volumes, and ideally timeframe, so we don’t keep sending you spikes when you don’t need them!

The reason for this jump is following UK Unemployment figures and Bank of England (BOE) minutes, which gives the market an insider’s view within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the Bank of England.  Unemployment figures stayed the same, but there was a surprising fall in the amount of people claiming jobseekers allowance, which dropped to a three year low.  The bad news was however is that wage increase still stands at 1%, far below the current level of inflation at 2.9%. This means there continues to be a squeeze on disposable income, seen since 2008.

The BOE minutes showed that the MPC voted unanimously against change to either QE or interest rates, showing their confidence in the Pound.  This is matched by the recent good economic data and the general ‘feel good’ feeling that seems to be spreading around the UK.

Personally I think that the current GBP-EUR trading level is the highest we will see for the next few days. Tomorrow there is German PMI figures which are expected to show an improvement in what is regarded as the “engine room” of Europe.  This is expected to give the euro a boost towards the end of the week, making it more expensive to buy.

If you have a slightly longer term need, next week’s key days are Tuesday and Thursday.  Thursday is the most important day for the week as UK GDP figures are released.  There seems to be a consensus that there will be no change compared to last month however, if we see any change it has the potential to move rates by over a cent within a quick period of time.

If you are looking at moving money and wish to know how these events could affect your situation, please feel free to send me a quick email at hse@currencies.co.uk. I will reply promptly with information relating to your situation.  Plus here we also have access to award winning exchange rates so happy to provide a quick quote too to make sure you are getting the best price.

Thank you,

Steve

9-0 Vote against further Quantitative Easing (Tom Holian)

There was a 9-0 vote against further Quantitative Easing this morning for the Bank of England which came in against expectation and the previous month. In June the vote was 7-2 against QE yet this month two members changed their mind to a 9-0 vote against. This came in as a surprise as many analysts expected at least the same result. This led to Sterling gaining against the Euro having touched overnight at a 4 month low against the single currency.

Previous BoE Governor Mervyn King voted for further QE at his last meeting but Mark Carney has decided at least for the time being to keep QE at bay. Sterling has strengthened across the board since the announcement and has come as a welcome surprise for anyone with a Sterling Euro currency transfer to make. Exchange rates have improved against the Euro by 1% since the low during today’s trading session or the difference of €1,150 on a currency transfer of £100,000.

If you are considering buying Euros and want to save money on exchange rates then feel free to contact me directly via email Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

How to Get the Best GBP/EUR Exchange Rates (Matthew Vassallo)

UK inflation rates increased from 2.7% in May, up to 2.9% in June according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This figure, whilst a 14 month high, was lower than the expected 3% and caused the Pound to weaken against the EUR during Tuesday morning’s trading. Whilst the UK economy does seem to be moving forward, inconsistent data along with a wide trade deficit, is continuing to hamper our recovery process.

Personally I think we are likely to see a move back through 1.15 over the coming days and i do think the Poubnd may be under pressure for the short-term. Confirmation from the Bank of England (BoE) last week that UK interest rates were likely to stay low for years to come, has knocked market confidence in the recovery of the UK eocnomy and ultimately the Pound.

If you do have an upcoming currency requirement and would like a comparative exchange rate against your current provider, or would like to be kept up to date with all the relevant market movements then please call one of our brokers today on 0044 1494 787 478, or you can email me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

GBP – EURO – A Big Week Ahead!

Tomorrow the UK releases its Consumer Price Index (CPI), month on month and year on year. Year on Year the forecasted figure is 2.3% a small increase against a previous figure of 2.2%. Month on month the figure is expected to see a reduction to -0.1% from 0.2% – potentially a market mover.

On Thursday the Bank of England minutes are released with potentially this weeks key data. The minutes will indicate the vote split for potential further Quantitative Easing (QE). For the most part of the last two years of Sir Mervyn Kings tenure at The Bank of England, the QE vote was 6-3 votes against further QE. Should the vote ratio have changed we would see that new Governor Mark Carney is having an influence immediately. We subsequently could have extreme volatility come 09:30 Wednesday, so if you have a currency transfer in mind I would recommend getting in touch sooner rather than later, to avoid un-favourable market movements.

 

Please feel free to drop me a line – AJB@currencies.co.uk or alternatively call the trading floor 01494 787 478.

Andrew Bromley

Global Risk – US QE Moves Currency (Steve Eakins)

Currency markets are moved by a number of factors. The top four are; Acts of God, Acts of Terror, Political Stability and Economic Data.  A majority of the movement comes from the last of the 4, however political data, commentary and forecasts also create a large swing in the cost of currency. One of the largest of these stories this year, has been the speculation on when the US will stop its current stimulus policy (also called Quantitative Easing or QE for short).  It is a very important topic, as when QE is ceased, interest rates will go up. This will change the return of holding US dollars and also commodities based in Dollars, e.g. Oil, Gas, and Gold.  It falls under global risk, and the appetite of traders in the market to hold assets.  So for example if speculation increases that the US will stop QE, the dollar gets more expensive, along with currencies like ZAR AUD and NZD.

So Why Is This So Important to The Euro and How Does It Work?

Well, USD-EUR currency pair is the most traded in the world. So when the demand changes for the Dollar, it has a knock on effect on the Euro.  Last night the head of the FED commented that QE was less likely to happen any time soon. This weakened the Dollar, money moved in the Euro as its demand increased which in turn pushed up the cost of buying Euros with the pound.  Subsequently, GBP-EUR went down.

In the next few days I would expect rates to stay within a 1.1550-1.1650 range. Next week, the data seems to suggest a further fall for the pound, so I expect rates to go down as low as potentially 1.1450.  A cent may not sound like a lot, but if you are buying a €200,000 property, it adds £2,000 to your cost.

If you are looking at completing a currency transfer, I am confident we can provide you both with competitive exchange rates and information to help you make an informed decision, as to when to make your transfer. I can be contacted at hse@currencies.co.uk . Just let me know what your requirement is with your contact details, and I will speak with you to explain the options that are available to you.

 

Best exchange rate deals for GBP/EUR, EUR/GBP (Ben Amrany)

The pound has strengthened against the Euro today for the second day running spiking at 1.1660 on the back of a downgrade on the Italian economy. After yesterday’s poor economic data for the UK I feel that pressure will remain on the pound. As we approach the next Bank of England interest rate decision in August there is a big possibility that we could at this stage see the pound fall to low levels once again when analysts feel that the bank could then look at more easing in the UK.

If you need to buy or sell Euros against sterling then making sure you get the best exchange on your currency transfer can end up saving you thousands of pounds.

All the authors on this site work for one of the largest currency brokers in the UK and we help clients make savings up to 4% If you are looking at an exchange in the near term then by contacting me I can help you achieve a commercial rate of exchange that banks normally offer to corporate clients. If you would like to find out more then email me with your requirement and contact details and I will see how I may be able to assist you.

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

 

IMF Growth Forecasts Impact on GBPEUR (Tom Holian)

The International Monetary Fund has raised the UK’s growth forecast for the UK from 0.7% to 0.9%. Britain has not had its forecast lifted since April 2012 so it gives hope that the British economy is moving in the right direction. However, the problem is that Britain’s recovery does depend on growth across the world which has been marginally downgraded by the World Economic Outlook. This saw Sterling fight back and recover some of its morning losses particularly against the Euro.

The IMF projected a rise for the US economy from 1.7% in 2013 to 2.7% in 2014 which has seen close to a 3 year low for GBPUSD exchange rates. There is a risk that the Dollar will continue to strengthen so if you’re considering buying Dollars in the short it may be worth moving quickly.

GBPEUR exchange rates are currently trading on mid market at 1.16. If you’re thinking about making a currency transfer feel free to contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

How to Get the Best GBP/EUR Exchange Rates? Pound Falls Following Negative Data (Matthew Vassallo)

The Pound took another hit during Tuesday mornings trading, following poor Manufacturing and Production figures for the UK. We had seen the Pound benefit of late from more positive economic data, including impressive Service Sector figures. Whilst there can be little doubt that the UK economy has certainly improved of late, the recent negative move is a stark reminder of how fragile our economy remains and how quickly the landscape can change.

We also have to consider that with Mark Carney taking over his new role this month as Bank of England governor, there was always likely to be a shake up following weeks of relatively little market fluctuation. Whilst he did highlight improvements in or economy, our wide trade deficit remains a real cause for concern. In order to narrow this we must ensure we have healthy trade arms with the Eurozone and the only way this can happen is if the Pound becomes more affordable, or Eurozone production levels increase. It is for this reason that I am not surprised by the recent drop and I would expect rates to move back under 1.15 before long.

If you do have an upcoming currency requirement and would like a comparative exchange rate against your current provider, or would like to be kept up to date with all the relevant market movements then please call one of our brokers today on 0044 1494 787 478, or you can email me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

GBPEUR remains range bound, perhaps expect moves lower

GBPEUR moved very little today and I cannot foresee any major movements this week. The main news of course was last week and the Governor of the Bank of England announcing forward guidance. The UK economy is still however very much in the doldrums and this will hamper any major improvements for sterling. So long as the data remains positive it is likely there will be a lack of QE and hence GBP should not crash. Nevertheless it is very much in the interests of the UK to have a weaker pound as this will help exports.

On balance I would not expect the rate to get much worse and still predict some negative GBP bias. All in all if you have a transfer to make, getting it done sooner rather than later seems to me to be the best bet. If you would like more information on the GBPEUR forecast for this week please contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR fall to fresh 6 week low – best time to sell euros – buying euros (Steve Eakins)

Today was billed as one of the most eagerly awaited days in British banking history, as Mark Carney (the first foreigner to has head the Bank of England) announced the UKs Interest Rate Decision.  The markets were expecting change, and this had been priced in. What actually happened was a negative statement. This release resulted in BIG STERLING WEAKNESS. The statement indicated that interest rates could change, and that the UK economy was going to get worse still. This is different from the positive view built in recently, after good PMI and construction figures.

Following the UKs Interest Rate decision was the European Central Banks (ECB) Interest Rate decision. The rate wasn’tchanged, but in the following conference with the head of the ECB (Mario Draghi), comments on more stimulus being needed were made, which subsequently weakened the euro, and helped GBPEUR traders re-gain losses seen earlier in the day.

With a movement today of nearly 2 cents within 3 hours, it again shows how volatile the FX market can be.  I offer a pro-active service, highlighting these movements to clients as to when they could happen.  I personally have helped a number of clients today to buy at the best price. One client saved over £6,000 on their transfer, by buying at the best price on their property purchase in Europe.  This is a service that most traders could benefit from, and is offered to everyone.  If this is of interest, feel free to email me –  hse@currencies.co.uk

If you would like to be included in future SPIKE Notifications, you can also register via submitting your details via email to hse@currencies.co.uk

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