Monthly Archives: February 2014

Best rates for buying and selling Euros (Ben Amrany)

The pound was rocking and rolling against the Euro this morning spiking up to a level breaching over 1.22. Then at 10.00 am the Euro zone released their inflation figures which came out better than what the markets were expecting and the Euro strengthened to 1.2090.

Disinflation has been one of the biggest concerns for the region as low inflation will hinder growth for the whole region. The figures this morning meant that it has given the European Central Bank some room for maneuver in not having to look at cutting interest rates next week.

There have even been rumours that the ECB may look at cutting interest rates next week which would have heaped further pressure on Euro sellers. I feel this is now unlikely but a surprise cut in rates could help GBP/EUR spike over 1.22 again.

In other news the European Union has revised upward its forecasts for economic growth. The news comes as Greece aims to secure another slice of its bailout money after posting a budget surplus. In Italy, the new government has pledged to turn around the stagnant economy. So is this the beginning of the end of the euro crisis? I personally think not but only time will tell.

If you have a currency transfer to make in the near future please feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk I offer a very personal service  to assist clients repatriate funds to and from Europe while offering significantly better rates than the banks with a very personal service.

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk

Thank you for reading

Sterling forecasts – STEVE EAKINS

GBPEUR rates saw yet another boost this morning when rates climbed following data on the UK Housing market. The data showed yet another increase in the price of property in the UK and with inflation on target, unemployment generally falling and construction climbing, nearly all the economic signs for the UK are showing an improvement. The Bank of England has already suggested it will be early 2015 when they start to raise interest rates, well before that expected in Europe. The Europeans are actually rumoured to be looking at cutting interest rates in an effort to help their deflation issues. (This is when they continue to see prices fall and consumers hold off buying with a hope things will become cheaper still.)  This all points to the forecast which we will see GBPEUR rates trend upwards in the favour of Sterling sellers.

However all the economic data will be looked at keenly as any chances will have an impact on when people believe an interest rate will happen and therefore influence the demand and price of the Pound. Early next week there is UK data for both Construction and Manufacturing data which will drive the short term forecasts. If you have any questions with regards to how these data releases and forecasts could impact your up and coming currency transfer feel free to contact an expert. You can contact myself directly via email if you would like a personal reply and/or a live quotation. My email is hse@currencies.co.uk

 

Pound Euro forecast remains positive for the pound, negative for the Euro

The recent trends on GBPEUR look set to continue as expectations are for the Euro to weaken in the near term. The Euro is likely to continue to weaken which will ensure we get better rates for Euro buyers.

Inflation is the key topic of late and this is brought into focus tomorrow when we have the CPI Inflation report for the Eurozone. I expect to see the Euro weaken as Inflation has been the key topic and a deteriorating Inflation picture in the Eurozone means we could see the Inflation rates fall further.

This would be most troublesome for anyone hoping to enjoy better rates to sell the Euros for the pound. The likelihood is that we will see the rates deteriorate.

For more information on everything that is driving your exchange rate please speak to me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Euro Under Pressure Due To Inflation And Unemployment Concerns

The Euro has been slipping today after Spanish data disapointed and German jobs news could not provide the necessary boost as the unemployment rate sat at 6.8%.  We have German inflation data out this afternoon so this will be closely watched as if this is poor, then there will likely be a very weak showing from the overall European figures tomorrow.  Combined with the EU unemployment published tomorrow this could see the Euro fall sharply as markets price in the prospect of action by the European Central Bank next week.  The current rate is 12% and is forecast to stay the same but any increase would be hugely damaging.

Low inflation is one of the reasons the ECB had to cut interest rates in November last year to record lows, and the forecast by Draghi was that inflation would be low for the next 2 years and interest rates would remain at current, or lower levels, for the time being.  At the last meeting he also said the ECB were considering all tools available to them, so their hand may be forced next week if the situation doesn’t improve.

If the data is bad then I would prepare to move fairly quickly as I suspect the markets will quickly price in the prospect of action by the ECB into current exchange rates so be prepared for rapid changes.  Add to this a speech by Janet Yellen stateside about which direction US monetary policy will take and you soon get the idea that it is a very complicated number of factors that may move sterling euro rates.  If you have a requirement to buy or sell Euros and would like some assistance then feel free to call 01494 787 478 or email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk

Mark Carney’s speech n Friday could give the pound another boost to end the week (Mike Vaughan)

Yesterday the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed that the economy grew by 0.7% in the final quarter of 2013, unchanged from its previous estimate and citing a rising level of business investment helping to lift growth in the final three months of 2013. However, its estimate for growth in 2014 as a whole was cut to 1.8% from the initial reading of 1.9%.

The results were very much as expected and had little impact on the market. As a result sterling has now remained relatively flat over the past week, struggling to break through 1.67 against the US dollar, 1.22 against the Euro and hovering between 1.84-85 against the Australian Dollar.

With Mark Carney speaking at 15:00 tomorrow and recent data sets released as expected, if his speech shows a positive outlook, sterling could have a strong end to the week.

To discuss teh full currency service we provide please contact the office on +44 (0)1494 725353 or email Mike on mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

GDP Remains at 0.7% (Tom Holian)

As predicted UK GDP revised figures have come out at 0.7% for Q4 2013. This was unchanged from its previous estimate but the year on year figures were reduced to 1.8% from the previous release of 1.9%.

GBPEUR exchange rates have remained relatively quiet during this morning’s trading session. As we come to the end of the month data releases are few and far between so expect the currency markets to remain fairly quiet towards the end of this week.

Tomorrow morning the Eurozone releases Consumer Confidence and Industrial Confidence so we could see a small amount of volatility.

With GBPEUR exchange rate having hit 12 month highs during February this make it an excellent time to be buying Euros.

If you would like a free quote to buy or sell Euros and want to save money compared to using your bank then feel free to contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I also write on www.poundsterlingforecast.com and www.australiandollarforecast.com so if you would like to be kept updated in more detail then click on either of these websites.

GDP revision tomorrow to set the scene for the day (Daniel Wright)

Daniel Wright

The Pound – Euro exchange rate has remained once again fairly range bound over the course of trading today and we now look towards tomorrow and any economic data that may come out and could have an effect on any upcoming currency exchanges you may have.

We have GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures are released at 09:30am. This is only a revision of figures from quarter 4 of 2013 so I would not expect any huge waves to be created in the market however this is one to keep an eye on as any major difference to predictions still could lead to the value of Sterling altering slightly.

The rest of the trading day tomorrow is fairly quiet for economic data for either Europe or the U.K so in all honesty unless we see any major surprises then another range bound day on the markets may be in order.

Thursday morning offers a little more from Europe with a flurry of growth and unemployment data due out from a number of members of the Eurozone over the course of the morning.

If you have a pending currency transaction to carry out involving buying or selling Sterling or the Euro, or indeed any other major currencies then please do feel free to contact me directly and I will be more than happy to help you with both the timing of your exchange and getting a great rate when you do decide to carry it out.

You can contact me directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to assist you personally.

 

GBP/EUR Rates Move Back Through 1.21 (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR exchange rates continue to hold firm above 1.20 on the exchange , despite a negative market reaction to last week’s UK Retail Sales figures. Figures came in worse than expected and Sterling dropped by a couple of cents against the single currency. It did seem as if the EUR may build some momentum into this week but once again the Pound found further market support, moving back through 1.21. Anyone with a GBP/EUR requirement should be keeping a close eye on the release of tomorrow’s UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. These figures are used as a key measure of UK economic activity and a positive reading is likely to give the Pound a further boost. However, if figures come in worse than expected it is likely the EUR will gain support and a move back down towards 1.20 could be on the cards.

Personally I would be tempted to consider my position around the current levels if I was purchasing EUR, as it does seems s if the Pound’s recent run could be coming to an end. We’ve heard comments from the Bank of England (BoE) recently that they felt the Pound was gaining too much value, which could have a negative impact on our export industry. Although I don’t anticipate a move back down to the lows we witnessed back in 2012, I still feel the EUR has a lot of scope to improve, whereas every time the Pound has got up to these levels over recent months, it has moved back almost as quickly.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively you can contact the trading floor on 0044 1494 787 478 and just ask for Matt.

A busy week ahead for GBP/EUR (Ben Amrany)

The pound has had a relatively very quiet days trading against the Euro with a small high to low movement of around 0.25%  The rate is hovering around 1.21 at the moment and sterling is slightly down from the high of the year of 1.2240. With rates still above 1.20 it is still a fairly attractive time to be looking at buying your Euros.

The recent news that inflation in the UK is still falling and that unemployment deteriorated last week it has put pressure on the pound due to giving the Bank of England more time to have to raise interest rates up. With nothing of note out today this is why not much has happened with this currency pair.

The rest of the week should be fairly busy though:

German GDP figures tomorrow at 07:00 – expected to show an improvement month on month shifting from 0.3% to 0.4% something that could lead to Euro strength tomorrow morning.

UK GDP figures Wednesday at 09:30 – forecast to show a fall month on month from 0.8% to 0.7%. May have been priced into the market already but I would still expect the pound to fall should the figures be as expected.

Euro Zone consumer confidence figures Thursday at 10:00 – expected to stay the same.

Euro Zone Industrial confidence figures Thursday at 10:00 – expected to post a small fall putting pressure on the Euro.

If you are requiring to buy or sell then Euro in the future then please feel free to contact myself and I can explain how you can achieve a better rate of exchange than the banks while having a personal service to help you judge when you should secure your funds.

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow’s UK Retail Sales Figures Could be Key (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have remained flat during Thursday’s trading, as the markets continue to digest yesterday’s Bank of England (BoE) minutes and UK unemployment figures. The BoE minutes give us a key insight to their most recent policy meeting and the latest release showed that all nine members voted unanimously to keep our base interest rate on hold at 0.5%. There was also no change to our Quantitative Easing (QE) programme, which should help to reinforce the feeling that the UK economy is continuing on the road to recovery.

However, the release of the latest UK unemployment figures may dampen expectations for further GBP gains. The unemployment rates now stand at 7.2% and although figures showed that unemployment had actually fallen by 125,000 during the last three months of 2013, it has still been unable to breach the 7% barrier set by the BoE. The figures also indicated that unemployment is falling at a slower pace than previously, which could cause the UK economic recovery process to stagnate in the short to medium-term.

All eyes will now be focused on tomorrow’s UK Retail Sales figures, which could prove key in determining the next major move on GBP/EUR. Figures are anticipated to show a fall on previous and if this proves to be correct, we may find that Sterling struggles to make any further inroads against its EUR counterpart.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me at mtv@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively, you can contact one of our experienced brokers today on 0044 1494 787 478.

Do you want to better the rate of exchange than your bank? (Ben Amrany)

The pound has been fairly range bound over the last 48 hours from around 1.2160 down to 1.2090. There have been a couple of different data sets which has slightly changed the complexion for sterling with inflation falling, unemployment slightly rising from what was expected which has all given the Bank of England more scope to not have to raise interest rates sooner than what is expected. Interest rates seem to be the key theme at the moment and the longer this is put off from being raised the longer sterling will remain weak.

If you are buying or selling this currency pair then I have been assisting clients for over 6 years convert their sterling into Euros or vice versa. The rates we offer are significantly better than the banks and it never surprises me when my clients tell me the kind of rates that they get offered on some very large volumes when exchanging funds. Not only will we help you make a saving on the actual exchange but we will offer you a very personal service to give you the information you need to help you decide when you should look at your conversion.

If you are wanting to make a saving over your high street bank of up to 4% then please do contact me and I will explain the service we provide in detail.

If you are in the situation needing to move money internationally and looking for the best price – please feel free to contact the author – Ben Amrany – via the telephone number at the top of the page or via email at bma@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBPEUR forecast – short term forecast

Sterling has wobbled this week and is expected to remain negative this week against most currencies. This is due to economic data being released which is compared to Decembers figures. December is traditionally a good month for the UK due to Christmas making most data releases in January look worse in comparison, this will be reflected in the price of the Pound.  Medium term however the view is that the Pound will generally climb in value. This is down to the expectation that the Bank of England will be the first central bank to start raising interest rates.  This will as a result create additional demand as the Pound becomes a BUY for most investors.

Most regular readers and traders will however be aware that rates do not move in a straight line. Timing a trade even within a short period of time can make a significant difference to your trade and is truly the way to maximise your currency purchase.  If you are in the market and would like to discuss how to get a true benefit make sure to contact us here.  With over 12 years experience I am 100% sure we will be able to provide you with a better price than your currency provider; bank or broker. Simply put if that was not the case we would simply not be in business.

For more information, access to live prices or a free quote please contact me, STEVE EAKINS, via email at hse@currencies.co.uk or by the normal number you can find on this site.

Happy trading!

 

Pound weakens following UK data

This morning the Bank of England Minutes have shown us all 9 members voting for no change in policy as expected. The Unemployment rate has increased to 7.2% which has caused the pound to fall about 0.3% against most currencies. The outlook remains fairly positive for the UK but this increase in the rate of Unemployed just shows us nothing should ever be taken for granted on exchange rates, it is the greedy that often get their fingers burnt.

Friday is the next big day for the pound with Retail figures released which could offer some respite for Euro buyers. On the whole the Euro remains well supported and I do think if you are selling Euros moving sooner may be the best course of action.

If you have a transfer to consider being aware of all of your options is the best strategy to avoid disappointment. For more information on what is happening in the market that will drive your exchange rate please speak to me or make an enquiry using the form.

For direct contact please use jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478.

Why Has Sterling Dropped And Will It Bounce Back?

Sterling has slipped today after inflation came in lower than expected and was actually under the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time in years.  The move lessens pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates in order to combat inflation, but to be honest it doesnt really add much given the Quarterly Inflation Report was published on Wednesday.  It did see sterling slide though and will likely be a concern to traders holding sterling in the short term.  Tomorrow morning will be a bigger indicator in many respects as not only do we get the Bank of England Minutes (again I am not sure how much they will change things) but we also see UK unemployment figures.

In my view UK unemployment has come down too rapidly on paper compared to the view of the jobs market by the common man- much of this may be down to part time hours and zero hours contracts which take people out of the unemployment stats but dont equate to a happy worker receiving a full wage!  If these figures are a little on the weak side then it could spell trouble for the pound so be prepared!  With UK retail figures on Thursday expected to be hampered by the recent weather, this could be another banana skin for the pound so if you are not of a gambling nature and need to make a currency transfer feel free to contact Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk or call on 0044 1494 787 478 and I would be happy to explain our services in more detail.

Sterling falls before inflation figures but tomorrows Bank of England minutes likely to be key this week (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling exchange rates have fallen below 1.22 this morning in anticipation of this morning’s inflation figures at 09.30. Should levels fall below the Bank of England’s target of 2% then this puts less pressure on the bank to raise interest rates and this could we sterling negative. Should figures be greater than expected then the reverse argument could be seen.

Looking ahead the major area to focus on this week is likely to be the Bank of England minutes tomorrow morning. This will give insight as to how the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted at this month’s interest rate meeting. Any surprises ie a member voting for a rate hike and expect sterling strength. Also the report should give clearer insight into Mark Carneys forward guidance policies. I for one feel the report is likely to benefit the pound and would look for rates to strengthen back through 1.22 tomorrow.

To discuss the current market trends and to get further information on the currency service we provide please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Pound Euro rates drop but still looking good for this week

Wednesday is the big one this week with UK Unemployment data released which will likely support further sterling. My predictions are for the pound to further bolstered by these improvements in the UK economy.

Where before the improvements where mainly down to the linking of Unemployment improvements to the raising of interest rates (which has now pretty much been abandoned)  the representation of an improved labour market can’t help but be good for the UK and hence the pound.

Headlines relating to the Scottish independence vote could be GBP positive as the BoE and all spectrum’s of the UK political class shun Salmond’s propositions.

In the Eurozone the headlines have focused on Italian political problems but this has not stopped the Euro from making some limited gains against a range of currencies. In short if I was looking at selling euros I would move sooner, if buying euros with sterling I would wait to see what Wednesday brings.

If you need to make a currency exchange and would like some information on the best exchange rates please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

 

The best exchange rates

Getting the best rates on pound to euros can be achieved using our website. Here we provide insight and information on the current market with a view to offering our clients the latest news to make an informed decision. Understanding what has happened and what may happen is an excellent way to assess the forecast.

The pound would appear to be very much supported at the moment which should mean it is unlikely the rate would fall significantly lower, the euro to me looks unlikely to strengthen anytime soon. Even marginal improvements in the economic outlook in some countries will not be enough to change perceptions about the future problems that lay ahead.

Disinflation and Unemployment are the main worries I feel. Improvements in these areas would probably help the euro to gain but this is not looking likely! what we can do is assist with the timing of your exchange so if you would like to learn more, please contact me.

jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will The Pound Keep Rising?

Despite a sharp fall after the ECB press conference last week, sterling euro rates have rallied back significantly this week on the back of a robust inflation report from the Bank of England with improved UK growth forecasts.  Sterling had such a torrid year last year that in the words of the 80’s pop sensation Yazz “the only way is up!” proved very apt.  Next week sees UK inflation on Tuesday, the Bank of England Minutes and unemployment figures on Wednesday, and retail figures on Thursday.  Whilst I don’t expect inflation or the Minutes to add too much to the information already provided by Mark Carney on Wednesday, the unemployment figures and retail figures could be potential banana skins in the short term.

Unemployment levels in the UK have come down much quicker than most analysts had expected, leading some to question whether they are an accurate reflection of the UK jobs market or are they masking part time jobs and zero hours contracts.  Also with the heavy flooding in the UK, not only is there the cost of the clean-up operation but also the impact on GDP as many businesses have closed.  Many shoppers may well have been put off purchases either because of a physical inability to get to the shops for the unluckiest, or for those of us more fortunate, simply because we don’t want to brave the high street in such inclement conditions.  Thursday’s retail figures could be an early signal of the lost trade so beware of a short term risk to the pound.

On the Euro side, GDP today was not particularly brilliant although it was slightly better than forecast.  0.5% growth will not get the Euro back on track, and I suspect that the ECB may have to change tack soon from talking about a range of tools they may consider, to actually taking action.  I don’t think they will lower interest rates, so it leaves measures such as bond buying as an option.  This may be difficult constitutionally given German opposition to more bailouts, but unless Europe starts seeing unemployment fall and economies growing, I cannot see much sign of the Euro improving.  If you look at what Quantitative Easing did to the value of the pound, then any bond buying in Europe could be problematic- it may help turn the economy around and be a positive for the long term future of the Euro, but it may devalue it in the mid-term.  If you are selling Euros I would be inclined to get rid of them soon.  Current levels to sell GBP and buy Euros are very attractive for imminent purchases but long term buyers may do well to hang on.

If you have a currency transfer to make please feel free to contact Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478 and I would be happy to assist with some options to get the best exchange rate.

Eurozone Inflation Forecasts Low But Euro Remains Strong (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have dropped off from their recent 3 week high and trading back into the 1.21 level during today’s trading session. The ECB Monthly Report out this morning confirmed that inflation is likely to be lower than originally forecast which would typically weaken the Euro.

However, they have also confirmed that there will be no change on interest rates which has helped to support the Euro against the Pound and hit a 2 week high against the US Dollar.

Tomorrow morning brings the release of French, German and Eurozone unemployment data. I expect the French release to be rather poor but Germany and the entire Eurozone to be slightly higher than expected. The consensus is for a growth of 0.4% so anything higher could result in Euro strength during tomorrow’s trading session. Exchange rates today have been trading between 1.2150-1.2240.

If you have a currency requirement with Sterling or Euro and want to save money compared to using a bank to buy or sell Euros then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Pound retraces this morning following yesterdays positive day (Mike Vaughan)

Following yesterdays very strong day the pound has retraced this morning pushing rates back into the 1.21s. This has come following the European Central Bank’s monthly report in which the ECB reiterated its stance on forward guidance and keeping base rates on hold at 0.25%. With worryingly low inflation levels rumours had circulalted that the ECB may consider cutting interest rates, however this report has quashed these rumours and the Euro has gained as a result.

Looking ahead to tomorrow should you have an interest in the Euro then watch out for Euro Zone GDP data at 10:00. Figures are forceast to show a good improvement which could again lend support to the single currency.

To discuss the current market trends and how the full currency service we provide works then please contact the office on 01494 787478. As a specialist foreign exchange broker we have multiple contracts available to help maximise our clients exchange and to protect themselves from adverse market movement. To get an overview of our service and teh contract that is right for you email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk