Monthly Archives: May 2014

Euro Sellers Getting Nervous- Will Draghi Be Able To Wave His Magic Wand Again? (Colm Gilhooly)

Whilst sterling has taken a slight wobble this week due to the national deficit once again rising (it was supposed to come down according to the Coalition wasn’t it?!) giving credit rating agencies pause for thought, the Euro is likely to have a very testing week again next week.  Whilst we do have the Bank of England decision next week nothing is expected to change there, and some UK releases like Services PMI are forecast to be positive.

However market attention on the Euro is in stark contrast to the UK.  We have inflation data out on Tuesday which has been a major headache for the ECB with how low it has been- in fact there are many who think the ECB may be forced into action at their own meeting next week which could seriously damage the Euro, hence the weakening trend of late.  With GDP figures on Wednesday it is set to be a very busy and testing week on the currency markets and any poor data could trigger substantial Euro weakness.  If you do have Euros to sell and are not of a gambling nature you may wish to move swiftly.  If you would like help making a currency transfer then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

When to trade the GBPEUR – best price

Buyers of the euro have taken a little knock this week as the value of Sterling has fallen back slightly.  I think however this will only be short lived and next week will give GBPEUR traders a better level still with all eyes on the Europeans.  They have continually highlighted their concerns about inflation across the single currency and have hinted that they plan to bring in new policies to tackle this factor.  It means that euro sellers have only a small window to trade at these levels before they probably fall in value further.

Inflation on Tuesday from Europe and the meeting on Thursday will BE KEY next week and could have a founding impact on the exchange rates on offer for a long period.

If I was a seller of the euro I would probably move tomorrow when German data is expected to give some slight relief.  Euro buyers will probably want to wait until next week but the choice is not an easy one; do you move on the expectation before the release on Thursday or wait for the announcement?  I personally am not a risk taker so would probably look at moving beforehand or split my exposure doing some before and after the key release.

If you are in the market looking at trading the EURO feel free to get in contact. We can help with timing the trade as well as getting better prices. Contact us today for an inform chat or quick quotation request so you can see how much you could save.

Contact the author – STEVE EAKINS – via email at hse@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Levels Drop Back Below 1.23 (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR levels have fallen back below 1.23 during Thursday morning’s trading, providing EUR sellers with some much needed respite after a tough week. The negative feelings surrounding the Eurozone have been resurfacing for some weeks and with growth forecast cut for 2015, along with on-going concerns over levels of inflation, I anticipate the single currency could come under further pressure over the coming weeks. Despite these issues not expect to see all one-way traffic, as today’s spike proves, but what has become clear is that anyone expecting GBP/EUR levels to move aggressively below 1.20 again in the short-term may be left disappointed.

I still feel that GBP has the momentum and if the European Central Bank (ECB) do cut interest rates next week then it is likely we will see further EUR losses.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Sterling Euro falling from 16 month high (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have started to fall from the recent 16 month highs owing to a small amount of positive Eurozone data out earlier today.

When exchange rates hit highs they often do not last too long and I think that speculators are taking advantage of the recent highs and are now selling off Sterling.

Nationwide has claimed that the UK housing market is due for a correction after an 8% rise over the last 12 months for the UK. Personally, I feel that the housing market has further to go in terms of higher prices before things begin to slow down. The property market is generally fueled by what happens in London initially which is then felt further afield.

The Bank of England could take steps to limit the amount of available mortgages and potentially increase loan to values to stop the rampant market but that is likely to be a few months away.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using a bank then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Euro exchange rates are starting to slip back (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has started to fall from the recent 16 month high we saw against the Euro over the past week or so after failing to break through key resistance levels on a number of occasions.

Those looking to buy foreign currency for their business requirements or indeed the purchase of a property overseas would have been exceedingly happy with the way rates were looking and now that the tide has started to turn it may be prudent to look at securing at least part of your requirements in case we do start to see the rate now slip back as it has done on so many occasions over the past few years.

With a bank holiday in major European countries tomorrow and very little economic data due out for the rest of the week for either the U.K or Europe it is fairly doubtful we will see any movements of great significance, however these are the currency markets so you as always anything may happen!.

If you are looking to buy or sell Euros in the coming days, weeks or indeed months then feel free to get in contact with me directly and I can either discuss the various contract types or get you a live rate of exchange for your transfer. You can email me personally on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your requirements and I will be more than happy to contact you and explain exactly how I can help.

Busy week for the Euro (Mike Vaughan)

As we head towards the end of the month this week is relatively quiet for the pound in particular with a speech from Bank of England governor Mark Carney scheduled for tomorrow evening the major area to focus on for sterling. As for the Euro zone it is a much busier week with ECB president Mario Draghi speaking tomorrow afternoon at 14:30, this will be followed by unemployment figures from Germany Wednesday morning and Euro zone consumer confidence figures at 10:00. To finish off the week on Friday Germany will release their latest GDP figures at 07:00.

Of late sterling has had a good strong run against the Euro pushing to an 18 month high. This week could see the Euro claw back some ground should the data be released as expected then Euro buyers could be facing a missed opportunity.

Should you wish to get further information on the currency service we can provide then please contact the office on 01494 727478  or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

Will UKIP be good for sterling?

The political force that was once mocked is clearly the one laughing now. Literally Nigel Farage is there across every media source with a big grin on his face and why not? He must be very pleased to see the party do well and also take great delight in delivering such a deft uppercut to consensus politics. Will UKIP be good for the UK is now a question more people will seriously ask themselves, the one party who have been prepared to tread where others haven’t. Little is covered about UKIP except their stance on the EU and immigration.

To find out more I consulted their website which didn’t tell me anything particularly new. It has been said the UKIP will set their manifesto for the 2015 election this summer at their conference and I look forward to hearing their say on important issues like the economy. The clear thing is they would leave the EU and radically alter the UK’s approach on immigration and government. In debating the benefits and drawbacks of leaving the EU for sterling, you need to focus on the economic issues. It is estimated 40% of the UK’s trade is with Europe which highlights just how valuable the agreements are to our economy.

These markets would of course still be there if UKIP took us out of the EU but surely there would be a immediate negative effect? The UK is seen as a gateway to the European Union and many global businesses have a base in the UK, particularly some American firms with the UK providing a convenient stop-off (Heathrow) on the way to Europe and Asia. UKIP say they will immediately advertise all the jobs advertised to overseas workers to the British unemployed, which sounds positive but again is difficult to quantify. We won’t know what markets think to these as yet unanswerable questions but uncertainty seems likely to be a key theme in a years time. UKIP will essentially be untried and untested which may prove just the factor to ensure Labour or the Conservatives hold power.

It was the race between these two parties which caused the pound to move many cents four years ago as the conservatives took power unexpectedly, this being viewed as positive for the pound. It would appear Labour are still not trusted on the economy from the polls but as is often the case it for politics it is not just a case of which is the most popular but which is the least unpopular. UKIP have probably just sucked up a large chunk of the Anti – European and Anti – Immigration sentiment sweeping the UK and Europe which is often so prominent in times of economic uncertainty.

Despite the pound strengthening and the UK economy now growing it may be that there are still many who have seen no benefit as of yet from the last few years of hardship. I think the trick will be if Cameron can get enough of the prosperity he is now doubt enjoying to be felt by the wider electorate by next year. Failure to get them on side will hand the bait to the others and I think it is fair to say further economic uncertainty for the UK.

I work as a currency broker and currency researcher. For more information on this post including assistance moving money internationally at the best exchange rates please speak to me jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Rates Close to a 16 Month High (Matthew Vassallo)

As we end the trading week GBP/EUR levels sit close to a 16 month high and continue to offer very attractive buying opportunities. The EUR has struggled to make any inroads into Sterling this week and this trend looks set to continue in the short-term, as the Eurozone struggles against inflation concerns and low growth forecasts. UK GDP figures were the key data release of the week and reaffirmed the positive sentiment surrounding the UK economic recovery.

Whilst GBP does seem to be gaining momentum against its EUR counterpart do not expect this trend to continue indefinitely and as history has shown us market conditions can change quickly and aggressively.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

When should I sell euros?

I think if you are selling euros moving sooner or selling on the dips is the wisest thing to avoid being caught out like many have been recently. If you are bold the ECB’s own predictions were for Inflation to rise naturally and for there to be no need for any intervention. As the rate cut has been largely priced into the rate, should we see no action the Euro should strengthen. Don’t be afraid to call us for a quote or further information! Alternatively email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Whilst on the backfoot lately the Euro is actually still at very high historic levels against most other currencies including the Aussie and the USD. The big news for the Euro remains the outcome of Inflation data and whether or not the ECB will act. There appears to be now a very high chance of some European Central Bank (ECB) action next month. Some kind of easing measure looks set to be on the cards. This could take the form of some kind of Quantitative Easing (QE) or possibly a cut in the base rate for the Euro. A small cut in their base rate is the most likely scenario for me as the QE route will have significant political ramifications. The situation does not at this stage appear to be serious enough to warrant such a move.

GBPEUR at highest expected for a further 2 weeks

The Euro weakened again this week and yesterday reached its WEAKEST POINT in over 17 months!!!!  A majority of this can be put down to Sterling strength however concerns in Europe continue to have an impact.  My view is that these current levels will be the highest we see for the rest of the month.  In 2 weeks time when both central banks either side of the channel meet is the next large event. The Europeans are again talking about introducing a new policy to tackle inflation, a topic that has been discussed every month for the last 6 with nothing new happening.  As a result I personally think trading before the event on the rumour rather than fact will give traders the best price, something we have seen every month for the last 3.

The UK Bank of England is not expected to release anything however as the housing bubble grows and becomes more of a concern new policies may be introduced to cool the market. This could be anything from a direct attach on mortgage offerings, like a raising the minimum deposit needed, to a flat interest rate hike, however un likely.  So there is something to be wary off.

So in summer; if you are a buyer of GBPEUR this month I would move now, if I was a seller this month I would move next week, if I had longer 6 weeks as a buyer I would wait 2 weeks but if I was a seller I would still move next week as the trend remains negative. Sellers are only going to get light relief over the next 6 weeks and I cannot see any event which could really provide any recovery in the rates in the favour of sellers….

I hope the above helps but please get in contact if you would like more information. I can also provide a quote to make sure you are getting the best price.

Contact the auther – Steve Eakins – via email at hse@currencies.co.uk

Retail Figures Boost Sterling – GBP EUR Over 1.23! (Colm Gilhooly)

As predicted Sterling has been given a major boost by UK retail figures trading over 1.23 on the Euro near an 18 month high.  In fact in the Summer of 2012 did see quite a sharp increase due to speculation over Greece’s Euro future, but this soon evaporated – meaning current rates are well above the average of the last few years and the levels near parity are a distant memory!  Most UK data lately has been good for the pound and there are GDP revisions and borrowing figures due tomorrow, however the Bank of England keep holding sterling back by stressing UK interest rates will not go up any time soon.  This policy is likely to keep the brakes on the pound despite the good news, meaning further increases will be gradual and dependent on continued positive news.

However EU data lately has been disappointing, and there is growing speculation the ECB may need to do something to intervene and stimulate inflation- a measure which could weaken the Euro even further.  We do have some PMI data out tomorrow and German GDP data out on Friday before the long weekend in the UK, so this could be an ideal time to buy Euros.  If you need to make a currency transfer and would like to take advantage of our service or simply find out a bit more about how we work, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

Retails Sales and Bank of England minutes the focus for sterling (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling has had a good start to the week and could be set for another strong showing this morning. At 09:30 the Bank of England will release its latest minutes from this months interest rate meeting and also released will be the UK’s latest retails sales figures. Retail sales are expected to have another strong showing moving from 4.2% to 5.2% year on year and from 0.1% to 0.5% month on month. If as expected I would expect the pound to have a good surge this morning.

As mentioned the Bank of England will also be releasing their minutes at 09:30. It is unlikely it will throw up too many surprises but is certainly one to keep an eye on. Any hint as towards future interest rate hikes (something that was dampened during Mark Carney’s last speech) and again this could have a significant impact on the pound.

Anyone looking at the Euro and watch out for Euro Zone consumer confidence figures at 15:00

Are you getting the best deal on your foreign exchange? Through utilising a broker such as ourselves and giving yourself as much information as possible will help you make the most informed decision when timing your transfer. To get more information about the currency service we provide contact the office on 01494 725353 or email Mike a mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

Sterling hits 1.23 following UK Inflation Data (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have hit 1.23 as UK inflation came out higher than expected this morning.

Inflation rose to 1.8% in April from 1.6% in March and this puts a bit of pressure on the Bank of England to possibly raise interest rates sooner than first predicted.

Last month’s figure was lower than wage inflation which also led to Sterling strength as with wages on the rise in the UK this could ultimately lead to more consumer confidence. More confidence would result in more spending and therefore more growth which leads to Sterling strength.

Inflation levels are still below the Bank of England’s target level of 2% but it’s certainly higher than the continent which is struggling with very low inflation.

Sterling is likely to feel the benefit of this strong data for the rest of the week so if you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using a bank then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

Sterling – Euro improves once again following inflation data out this morning (Daniel Wright)

The Pound has made a little more ground up against the Euro in trading this morning and exchange rates did momentarily break through the 1.23 level.

For those looking to buy Euros with Sterling we are now closing in on the best exchange rate in 16 months, so if you are buying a property overseas it may well be prudent to consider the various options available to you inclusive of a forward contract, stop loss or limit order.

There is little economic data still to come out today however all heads now turn towards the Bank of England minutes which are due at 09:30am tomorrow morning which certainly has the potential to either push this rate further or throw a spanner in the works and see current levels drop away.

If you are looking to buy or sell Euros in the coming days, weeks or indeed months then feel free to get in contact with me directly and I can either discuss the various contract types or get you a live rate of exchange for your transfer.

You can email me personally on djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of your requirements and I will be more than happy to contact you and explain exactly how I can help.

Thursday’s UK GDP Figures Key for GBP/EUR Exchange Rates (Matthew Vassallo)

It’s been a quiet day for GBP/EUR exchange rates with very little economic data out to move the markets. GBP/EUR rates still sit close to a sixteen month high and Sterling continues to be well supported, in line with the on-going improvement in the UK economy. Whilst I expect Sterling to hold its potion above 1.20, I do think we will need to see a shift in market sentiment if we are going to see GBP/EUR break the 1.23 resistance barrier for any sustained period.

Key economic data this week is the release of Thursday’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, which if bullish, could help to Sterling continue its recent momentum.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.

GBPEURFORECAST – Currency update

GBPEUR rates have been very volatile this week with swings over 1.5 cents reaching both a 18 month high and equally a multi week low.  As a result it has provided many opportunities for the quick movers and those with an account here ready. It again shows how important it is to have a facility open ready to go for when your need comes around so you can take advantage of SPIKES in the market.

The main reason for these swings is changes in the expectation of central bank policy. As the views change the demand for the currency moves to reflect this creating the movement and highlighting that the market moves on rumour as well as facts.

Next week I don’t expect things to slow down even though I think rates will not re-visit these high levels to buy Euros for the rest of the month.  On Tuesday the UK releases its set of Inflation data and with wage inflation having over taken inflation overall it is likely that consumer confidence will rise up later in the week.  On Thursday there is also Q1 GDP figures being published.  The central bank, IMF and financial bodies have all pushed their forecasts up for this figure meaning we could potentially see the pound gain in value on the news.

If you would like more information on how these events could impact your personal situation make sure to get in contact.  Here I can quickly provide you with the latest information or a quick quotation to see how much you could save.  Contact myself directly if you wish via my personal email address: hse@currencies.co.uk

Have a good weekend!

Pound Euro Forecast

Sterling is once again top of the class but will this continue for the next week? On balance you would have to favour sterling over most currencies but with so much data this week there is always the possibility rates could take a hit. Monday is a very quiet day but here is a quick snapshot of important news for the pound this week.

Tuesday we have a wide range of economic data notably CPI (Consumer Price Index) relating to Inflation. This has not been the biggest driver of GBP moves but could lead to some movement as it outlines how necessary or not an interest rate hike is by the Bank of England (BoE).

Wednesday is a much more important day for the pound with the BoE Minutes and Retail Sales figures released. On balance I would probably favour GBP strength off the back of this data, if you are selling a currency to buy sterling moving before this data may be wise. please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk for more information.

Sterling Euro Rates Remain Choppy After A Mixed Few Days (Colm Gilhooly)

Sterling Euro rates have been pretty volatile in the last 48 hours as the markets have been trying to second guess what the Bank of England and ECB will do with monetary policy.  The Bank of England yesterday played down the prospects of any early interest rate hike, despite all the positive data coming out of the UK, resulting in sterling slipping.  However EU inflation and GDP figures this morning hardly set the world on fire, sending the Euro down before a late rally.  The issue is very low inflation and growth could force the ECB into taking some drastic action to stimulate things which could damage the value of the Euro.  Whilst todays data wasn’t so low as to send markets into a panic over the Euro, it will increase pressure on the ECB and I think GBP EUR rates could start edging up ever so slightly this month in the run up to Junes interest rate meeting.  If you need to transfer currency and would like to get the best exchange rate then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

Sterling hit 1.23 today against the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling hit 1.23 earlier today prior to the UK unemployment figures and the Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report but fell rather quickly following the data and the following inflation report.

The Pound hit a 16 month high this morning but it has fallen from those levels. In the report Governor Mark Carney said that the economy has moved close to the point when interest rates need to rise he did indicate that this is some way off.

The good news for the UK economy is that the growth forecast has been raised from 2.7% to 2.9% but it was the reluctance of the Bank to suggest when the MPC may look to increase interest rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money compared to using a bank then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

Could GBP/EUR Rates Move Through 1.23 This Week? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR exchange rates continue to sit close to a sixteenth month high, providing some excellent buying opportunities. With little movement on the currency pair during Tuesday morning’s trading, despite a raft of Eurozone inflation data, it is likely that the markets will be waiting for the release of UK economic data tomorrow, before making its next decisive move.

With UK unemployment data and the Bank of England’s (BoE) quarterly inflation report, along with a speech by BoE governor Mark Carney, it is likely tomorrow’s releases will cause additional Sterling fluctuation. If as anticipated UK unemployment levels fall, we may see GBP/EUR levels put pressure on 1.23

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk.