Monthly Archives: July 2014

Sterling Euro Slips With Better Jobs News But EU Inflation Still Worryingly Low (Colm Gilhooly)

Sterling dropped against the single currency today as EU unemployment showed the overall jobless rate has dropped.  However inflation was below expectations and worryingly low at 0.4% so this could be a signal for more guidance by Mario Draghi & Co and next week’s ECB rate meeting.  Any suggestion of further action by the ECB could be a huge problem for the Euro so Euro sellers may want to stop counting their chickens just yet!

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to get the best exchange rate then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be more than happy to explain how our services work and the cost savings you can make.

GBPEUR rate forecast

There seems to be a growing concern that the Pound is overvalued and that a correction could come in the near future.  I am not so sure however I do respect their logic. Even the IMF has this view and came out this week with suggestions that the Pound could be overvalued by anything between 10% to 15%. Even though GDP figures are over pre-recession levels the manufacturing and production figures across the UK remain sluggish. Real earning are still very low and falling plus with the general population growing, GDP per head is actually still down.  My view is that there is a risk yes, it seems that the pound does seem to be heavily invested in and perhaps more forecasts have already been priced into the market.  This simply means that the UK will probably need to continually release good data to keep levels where they are, this is still possible as UK data has recently not just been good but actually excellent hence the situation we find ourselves in with GBPEUR levels at a near 2 year high.

We start a new month tomorrow and the data cycle starts again next week for the UK and the Europeans.  If you are in the situation with exposure to the market and would like views, forecasts, pricing or options please get in contact. Contact the author STEVE EAKINS via email at hse@currencies.co.uk for more information.

GBP/EUR Rates Flat During Wednesday Trading (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have remained very flat during today’s trading, staying range-bound between 1.26-25-1.2642 on the exchange. With little movement following the raft of Eurozone data released this morning, it is likely the markets are now waiting for tomorrow’s Eurozone inflation and unemployment figures, both of which can be key market movers.

There is little data of note for the UK tomorrow, so all eyes will be fixed on Friday’s PMI data to see if this can boost GBP/EUR back towards the recent two year high.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Have Sterling Euro Rates hit their Peak? (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs Euro seems to have plateaued recently with GBPEUR rates trading just above 1.26 for the last few days.

With UK GDP figures hitting their highest level since their previous peak reached in 2008 typically this would have seen Sterling rise higher. However, owing to the lack of increase for the Pound it appears as though we have little further room for improvement for Sterling Euro exchange rates.

Indeed, there have been a few articles suggesting that Sterling is over valued by as much as 5%-10%. Personally I think this is not accurate however I do agree that Sterling has the potential to fall in the short to medium term.

With the disparity in house prices across the UK with 7 out of 10 regions seeing a fall in house prices according to the Land registry the housing market could be the biggest factor in Sterling’s potential demise.

Out this week we see the release of German retail sales due out in the morning and as the country is the Eurozone’s leading economy any change compared to the expectation could see volatility for Sterling Euro exchange rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer confidence the main interest for the Euro in the morning (Daniel Wright)

A fairly quiet and range bound start to the week for Euro exchange rates against most major currencies however tomorrow morning and indeed Thursday may be where we start to see a little movement.

We have a few GDP (Gross Domestic Product) estimations for Spain first thing, followed up by European Consumer Confidence data out at 10:00am. This will be a measure of the level of confidence in economic activity generally, and a high reading can lead to a boost in strength for the Euro and a lower reading could push it even lower against most major currencies.

With European inflation due out on Thursday too, this could be a key few days for the Euro once again.

If you have a currency transfer coming up, involving either the Pound or the Euro then it may be sensible to get in touch with me directly. You can email me on

djw@currencies.co.uk with a brief description of what you are looking to do and a contact number and I will be more than happy to get in contact with you personally.

Euro set for a busy week (Mike Vaughan)

Again today is set to be a relatively quiet day for the pound and the euro with much of the focus on tomorrow and the latter part of the week. Key areas to focus on are as follows:

– Wednesday 08:00 Spain – GDP data – expected to show a small increase from 0.4% to 0.5% and again could lend support to the Euro.

– Wednesday 10:00 – Euro Zone consumer confidence. Expected to fall, something that could impact the Euro negatively.

– Wednesday 13:00 – German CPI. With the Euro Zone still experiencing problems with deflation, falling inflation in the zones largest economy will more  than likely weaken the single currency. Month on month figures expected to fall from 0.3% to 0.2%

– Thursday 07:00 – German retail sales data followed by unemployment figures at 08:55.

– Thursday 07:00 – UK Nationwide House price data. Expected to show a slight decline which.

– Thursday 10:00 – Euro Zone inflation figures. As with the German CPI, any fall in figures will probably cause Euro weakness.

Should you need to arrange a currency exchange and need more information on the various contract types available and how our currency service operates then please get in touch. As one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokers we have access to multiple sources helping us to maximise our clients exchange. Te get more information please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR rates could get better for Euro buyers this week…

GBPEUR rates have vastly improved for Euro buyers in the last two weeks and they could yet improve further with some EURUSD movements this week. GBPEUR movements can be affected by EURUSD movements as investors buy and sell the Euro or the USD according to sentiments on that currency pairing. The resulting flows in and out of the Euro (from the USD) can cause movements on GBPEUR as the Euro is ‘weighed’ down or ‘buoyed’ up.

The outcome of the relevant data therefore may impact GBPEUR and anyone considering any GBPEUR transfers should really speak to one of our team to get a run down on what to expect. There are never any guarantees on the markets and that is why our service can prove invaluable and pay major dividends in the long term.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR Rollercoaster likely to continue!

GBPEUR rates hit a high of 1.27, firmly underling the headlines of reaching a 2 year high. GDP data today was good and all the news has on the whole been positive. There are however some holes in the story, notably government borrowing rising and Construction actually shrinking for the second quarter that should be noted. Any holes are acknowledged by investors but the bigger picture remains and that is; the UK will likley be the first leading global economy to raise interest rates post crisis. The Eurozone did actually raise rates in 2011 but they just cut them and are quite find behind where the UK currently sits in the term of the ‘economic’ cycle..

SO if you are buying Euros there may yet be better rates down the line. But don’t be too greedy as the turn of 2013 saw 1.24 on the exchange which soon dropped to 1.14 by March 2013. This highlights the volatility and uncertainty ever present on the currency markets so if you feel complacent why not call us to get all the information and be alerted should rates unexpectedly take a twist, as they often do…

For more information please get in touch with me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

UK GDP Shows We Are Back To Pre-Recession Levels So Sterling Should Be Well Supported And The Euro May Come Under More Pressure Next Week (Colm Gilhooly)

Sterling has remained fairly solid today after UK GDP figures showed healthy growth for Q2 of this year, and the UK economy is back to the pre-recession size.  The pound had lost ground in the middle of the week due to the Bank of England Minutes showing all 9 members of the MPC voted to hold interest rates, and UK retail figures came in slightly below expectations.

However the news on the overall state of the economy is pretty good, and whilst there are still concerns of the pace of house prices and the deficit rising, this data is likely to keep sterling well supported.  The Euro on the other hand is still under pressure due to fears over further intervention by the ECB- if inflation data on Thursday is weak then we could see GBP EUR rates press on.  EU unemployment figures are released the same day so there could be a lot of volatility in the run up to August’s ECB decision.

If you would like to make a currency transfer either to buy or sell Euros, then feel free to contact Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work and how we can get you the best exchange rate.

GBPEUR at 4 year high

GBPEUR rates have again gone up towards the 2 year high we have seen last week for the first time.  It is a level that I expect to continue to creep up this week as UK data both tomorrow and Friday are expected to be positive. This includes Bank of England minutes tomorrow and UK GDP figures on Friday.  The general view is that rates will creep up, not by large amount like we saw within the last 30 days which was close to 4% but by small amounts.  A majority of change I expect next after the summer break through August so September onwards. This is when speculation will build about when Uk interest rates will climb which in turn will create volatility and opportunity.

Euro sellers however may want to limit exposure and move sooner rather than later as a result.

For more information on what is creating this opportunity in the market and when you should potentially move contact the author STEVE EAKINS via hse@currencies.co.uk

Where Next for GBP/EUR Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have spiked again this week, moving the currency pair up to a two year high. This spike was initiated following better than expected UK inflation data earlier this week, which helped push GBP/EUR back through 1.26 on the exchange.

Many clients will now be hoping for further gains and whilst it is impossible to predict exactly which direction GBP/EUR will take, I do not anticipate any major Sterling losses in the short-term. Any move up towards 1.30 is likely to be tempered by the Bank of England’s (BoE) desire to control the Pound’s value on fear of driving our export prices up and alienating the Eurozone economy even further.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly at mtv@currencies.co.uk

2 year high buying euros

GBPEUR rates hit fresh 2 year highs this week following speculation that the bank of England will raise interest rates sooner than thought.  Inflation climbed and unemployment full in the UK giving the BOE more scope to bring forward a rate hike. It is now thought that this will happen in the UK this side of Christmas and is why GBPEUR rates have SPIKED.  European news has not helped either as they continue to publish nothing exciting and giving no confidence in their economic situation.  It was only last week that a ripple of worries went across Europe when a Portugal bank was unearthed as fudging figures.

My personal view – I think levels now are the highest we will see for 6 weeks or close to it.  Longer term rates could go higher still at the end of the year.

If you are looking for more help or information conact the author STEVE EAKINS – hse@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR rates above 1.26

GBPEUR rates have improved and are now comfortably above the 1.26 level representing an excellent time to buy Euros. Despite the continuing improvements clearly rates won’t just keep rising. If you need to buy Euros now is a two year high to purchase them and there are no guarantees the rate will just keep rising.

We are currency specialists who can assist in the safe transfer of currency at award winning exchange rates. For more information at no cost or obligation please feel free to contact us using the contact form or email me Jonathan directly jmw@currencies.co.uk

Much longer term the Eur will probably weaken against the pound as it becomes apparent the UK is raising interest rates much further in the future than expected now. If you have a requirement now to buy or sell Euros, making clear your position sooner rather than later is probably the best way to avoid disappointment!

Sterling Still On The Up After Unemployment- Next Week’s Minutes Could Be Interesting (Colm Gilhooly)

Sterling gained a little more ground after UK unemployment figures were released this morning, backing up a very good day yesterday after the inflation figures.  All the positive news must be ramping up pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates, and whilst they voted to hold interest rates this month, we wont know if it was a unanimous decision until next week when the official Minutes are published.  If any member has dissented with the majority and voted to hike then we could see sterling rise further, although a 9-0 to hold could dent sterling’s recent surge.

The Euro has suffered from consistently weak data and the recent rate cut from the ECB, but there is also pressure from the fact that Mario Draghi may have left the door open for further intervention.  The prospect of a European Quantitative Easing is hampering the Euro as you only have to look at what happened to the value of the Dollar and the pound during similar policies.

If you need to make a currency transfer then the next week could be a great buying opportunity for GBP EUR rates, just in case the Minutes don’t show calls for a hike and the ECB take no action resulting in the rate falling.  If you would like assistance please feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

UK unemployment falls to 6.5% (Mike Vaughan)

UK unemployment figures have fallen to 6.5% this morning lending support to the pound which pushed to a two year high against the Euro and a near six year high against the US dollar. These figures were forecast but continues the positive run for the labour market and gives more scope for the Bank of England to raise interest rates, with some analysts forecasting this could happen as soon as Q4 of this year and it is this that is likely to keep sterling moving in a positive direction.

Today’s figures were the last of the major data sets from the UK this week and the next major focus will be the Bank of England minutes next Wednesday. This report will give the full breakdown of the Banks last interest rate meeting, including the split across the nine members of the monetary policy.

Looking at the Euro and tomorrows inflation figures should be watched. The Euro Zone is still coming under pressure from deflation and should levels fall further I would look for a negative shift for the Euro.

To get more information regarding the currency service we provide please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

Sterling Euro exchange rates close to 2 year high once again following inflation figures this morning (Daniel Wright)

The Pound crept close to a two year high once again today following inflation figures coming out higher than expected which led to a spike in the value of the Pound against most major currencies.

The higher inflation figure did add to speculation of a rate hike coming sooner rather than later and with a rate hike generally being very positive for the currency concerned the mere speculation of a potential hike can give the Pound strength.

Tomorrow morning we have unemployment figures out for the U.K which may also give Sterling a fairly volatile morning and with expectations for the unemployment level to have dropped a little further again to 6.5% there is a chance that Sterling may be in for a pretty good week all around.

If you have an upcoming transfer to carry out and want to get the best exchange rates along with great customer service and knowledge of the markets then email me directly on  djw@currencies.co.uk I welcome all enquiries for bank to bank transfers however i’m afraid I cannot help with cash transactions or speculation.

Sterling Euro hits 2 year high (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have hit their highest level since August 2012 following the UK inflation data out earlier this morning. Inflation now stands at 2% in line with the Bank of England’s target and is its highest level since January 2012.

This means more pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates sooner than the markets currently expect.

This has also seen Sterling continue in its upwards direction and provide some excellent buying opportunities for those clients looking to buy Euros.

If you’re thinking of buying a property abroad or need money for living expenses then feel free to contact me for  a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

How much higher will the GBP go against the Euro?

The pound looks like it will only continue to climb higher against the euro but this expectation could prove very dangerous if relied on too heavily. It would appear that the pound is likely to continue to strengthen but let us look at the facts and just what the prospects are for GBPEUR.

Possible problems for are that there will be a slowdown in economic activity in the Eurozone which will have a knock on effect for sterling as the UK does 40% of its trade with the Eurozone. Also there would appear to be a strong likelihood the pound is too strong which will harm UK exporters. These points are being raised time and time again and I am sure it soon be mentioned by say Mark Carney or someone else which will cause the pound to weaken.

All in all the current exchange rate is very favourable for Euro buyers so if you have a transaction to make please get in touch to learn more about the forecast for the rates. Please feel free to speak to me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Rates Likely to Remain Flat During Wednesday Trading (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have remained flat during Wednesday’s trading and with little data of note out today this was to be expected. GBP/EUR continues to float just below 1.26 on the exchange and although we have seen a slight drop form the highs of last week, Sterling continues to hold its position close to a two year high. With little data of note to shift the markets, investors will be keeping a close eye on European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi’s speech this evening. This could turn out to be key market mover and any indication that the ECB could cut their base interest rate further, could cause the EUR to dip back below 1.26 by the opening of European trading tomorrow.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currnecies.co.uk

GBPEUR Forecasts

Sterling rates dropped today against the single currency as we saw data MISS EXPECTATION for the UK. This was the first time in a number of weeks and is giving EUROS sellers an opportunity to take advantage and get some light relief on their transfers.  This was down to UK data both Industrial and Manufacturing data falling in comparison to the expectation.  Generally the “market” will have a view on the published reports and these will be priced into the market meaning that if the data shows what was priced in market prices don’t move much.  However if they are different, like this morning, the market moves quickly to price this information in.

Later today the UK release GDP figures, these are mixed and expected to show a better price so potentially these gains for EURO sellers could be short lived.

For more information, a full breakdown of the forecasts this week or to talk through your personal situation please feel free to contact the author STEVE EAKINS on hse@currencies.co.uk