Monthly Archives: August 2014

EU Inflation Data Weak But Better Than Feared- Will The ECB Act Next Week? (Colm Gilhooly)

EU inflation data this morning has come out slightly better than expected but still very much lower than the ECB will be comfortable with.  However it is possible it is just about high enough to stave off immediate action at the meeting next week although I still feel there is a strong possibility of Darghi & co introducing some form of asset purchase program (or at least hinting strongly enough about an upcoming policy as to have the same affect).

The pound has been under pressure since the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report a couple of weeks ago and a lot of UK data of late has been positive but slightly under expectations meaning sterling hasn’t been able to support itself at July’s peak.  However I think the Euro is now going to come under a bit more fire over the coming weeks so Euro sellers beware of Draghi’s words.  If he can calm markets down and stave off the possibility of intervention then you may get the rate bouncing back to last week’s peak for the single currency, however I think this is unlikely and as a result selling soon may be the best course of action.

If you need to make a currency transfer, or wanted to find out more about the great exchange rates we can offer, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our currency exchange and transfer service works.

GBPEUR levels this week – EU Inflation key

GBEUR levels are flat at the moment around 1.258. generally levels have been flat this week as there is normally little economic data to drive market movement. This changes however tomorrow with inflation data from the Europeans. This is probabaly going to weaken the euro making it cheaper to buy, great news for buyers however sellers should not be very wary as the trend of negative movement I think will return.  The hope that sellers do have is that uncertainy around the Scottish vote in a few weeks could weaken the Pound but generally as policy centrally between the banks are so different it really seems that GBPEUR rates are again on the way up.  I would not be surprised to see levels climb up to 1.27 within the next 6 weeks.

For more information including how to maximise your transfers please contact myself Steve Eakins via email at hse@currencies.co.uk

Thank you for reading

A Quiet Week for GBP/EUR (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have remained fairly flat this week, with a small improvement for Sterling pushing it back through 1.25 on the exchange. The EUR has threatened to realign itself recently but every time it has spiked, the Pound has found market support to protect it around the current levels.

Although we have moved away from the two year highs witnessed last month, GBP/EUR rates still remain very attractive and I would certainly be tempted to consider my position around the current levels. Whilst the Pound has been well supported over recent months, I’m still wary that this positive trend will not continue indefinitely. Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney has already voiced his concern that the Pound is gaining too much value and if the central bank want to control Sterling’s rise, then this is likely to handicap any major spikes for the Pound from its current position against the EUR.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Euro Coming Back Under Pressure – GBP EUR Exchange Rates Over 1.25 Again (Colm Gilhooly)

As mentioned in my blog last week the euro has come under pressure this week as German IFO data was worse than forecast on Monday, data so far today hasn’t been great, and the issues over the French government have all caused the Euro to wobble.  It has been a fairly quiet week for UK data but we do have German unemployment and inflation data tomorrow, and wider EU inflation and unemployment on Friday.

If these figures are weak (particularly inflation) then the Euro could come under even more pressure as we get closer to the next ECB interest rate decision, as it may mean they have to consider some form of asset purchase program – a move that could seriously damage the Euro if QE measures in the US and UK are anything to go by!  If you do need to make a currency transfer and would like help to get the best exchange rate, then feel free to contact Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work and see if we can help.

Sterling Still Under Pressure But Euro Data Next Week Could Reverse Things (Colm Gilhooly)

The pound is still under pressure today after recent data and comment from the Bank of England suggest the UK is doing well, but not as well as some analysts had been pricing in.  Interest rate forecasts suggest UK rates will now go up in early 2015 and not by the end of this year as some had suggested and this has caused the pound to drop back over recent weeks.

However there is a lot of German economic data next week including unemployment figures.  Whilst the jobs data is expected to be good, the IFO surveys and inflation data could be a concern particularly as they could be a reflection of the wider European CPI to come out later in the week.  If this is also low it could put a lot of pressure on Mario Draghi to act as low inflation was one of the triggers for the ECB to cut interest rates recently.  This could take the form of some type of bond buying program similar to Quantitative Easing in the UK and the US, and this could substantially weaken the Euro so prepare for next week just in case!

Monday is a bank holiday here in the UK but if you would like to make a currency transfer and want to buy or sell euro, then feel free to get in touch by emailing Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how we can help get you the best exchange rate.

Retail Sales Fall leads to Sterling Weakness (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates fell this morning following the release of lower than expected UK Retail Sales at 2.6%. Sterling has been struggling to work out which way to go against the Euro and with inflation falling earlier this week this had led to Sterling weakness as it removes the need to increase interest rates in the UK which has been one of the main reasons why Sterling hit a 2 year high against the single currency in July.

The Jackson Hole Symposium takes place tomorrow with Mario Draghi due to speak so expect some volatility for the Euro during late tomorrow’s trading session.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then feel free to contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

UK retail sales weaken sterling (Mike Vaughan)

This mornings retail sales figures caused the pound to lose more ground against the Euro keeping the level below 1.25. The losses were not to last however as Euro Zone consumer confidence figures were also poor and this counteracted the morning session.This week the pound has now ranged between 1.2450 and 1.254 and currently sits at the average trade price of 1.249.

Tomorrow I would expect to be a quiet day for GBP/EUR with no major data of note and I would expect the trade prices to remain around the 1.25 mark. The next area to focus on will be German inflation figures on Tuesday and UK consumer confidence figures on Wednesday.

To get more information on teh currency service we provide then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling tumbles after inflation. Best rates to sell Euros (Ben Amrany)

The pound was severely knocked of its perch this morning after inflation in the UK fell to 1.6%. We saw GBP/EUR hit a low of 1.2458

This is negative for sterling as it gives the Bank of England more scope in not having to raise interest rates sooner. Interest rates are one of the biggest factors in what effects the exchange rates and inflation is a big factor on when interest rates may go up. The sooner interest rates rise the stronger the pound should be (theoretically speaking) We are not expecting interest rates to go up before next year now but tomorrow we will learn if any members of the Bank of England voted for a change in interest rate policy. Now should just one member of the central bank vote for interest rates to rise then we may see the pound recover todays losses. If no members have voted for a rate hike then the pound could continue to weaken effecting your purchase.

The next week or two may bring about some good opportunities to sell the Euro against the pound as we still expect the pound to be fairly strong as we head closer towards 2015. If you require buying or selling the Euro against the pound then please do feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk and I can explain the options available to you regarding your requirement.

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBPEUR levels set to fall – Scottish Vote + UK Date

GBPEUR rates are steady this morning in anticipation of the next few days and the important economic data which is expected to be released. This includes Inflation data this morning which is expected to show a fall, retail figures and the Bank of England minutes from their most recent meeting. Inflation is expected this morning and expected to show a fall, Retail figures are probably going to be flat or negative and the BOE minutes are probably going to be a none event.  Generally I expect to see levels fall for the Pound this week as the negative trend I was wary of last week I think has now started.  Sterling does seem to have been over valued earlier this month and following the Quarterly inflation Report last week pushing Interest Rates changing until next year I think a correction is overdue.

GBPEUR levels have already fallen by over 2 cents compared to the high levels seen over the last two weeks but if you have a euro purchase to make in the next 30 days I still think that current levels represent a good buy level.  It is now less than 30 days until the Scottish vote which with the clouds of uncertainty will probably weaken the Pound in the run up to it.  It seems likely that current levels will be a very attractive compared to prices we could see in a few weeks time.  I personally would not be surprised to see GBPEUR levels drop by up to 4 cents in the next 2 weeks making a very large difference to any currency purchase.

For more information on how this could impact your financial planning, strategy options to consider or simply live pricing please contact myself STEVE EAKINS via email at hse@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPEUR rise above 1.26 again?

The pound remains at a lower level against the Euro which is representing a good opportunity for anyone who is selling Euros to capitalise on a tough few weeks. The expectation is that the pound could strengthen this week as investors anticipate that a member of the Bank of England will have voted for an interest rate hike. Any dissent from the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) could easily cause the GBPEUR rate to spike up to 1.26 which would be my target if buying Euros. On the flip side if tomorrow’s Inflation data does not do the pound any favours, rates could easily slip back to the 1.24’s. On balance I would be buying up euros Wednesday, I would be selling before then. For the latest news and trends on your currency purchase, please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Best rates for selling Euros for four months. (Ben Amrany)

The Euro has had a fantastic week strengthening against the pound by around 1.5% bring some relief to Euro sellers that are importing from the UK or just repatriating funds back from the proceeds of property sales. This week the Governor of the Bank of England went some way to push back interest rate expectations after they cut the forecast for wage growth in the UK.

This could lead to a further rise for the single currency against the pound but on the whole we feel it will be hard pushed for teh Euro to gain a great deal more in the term due to the economic situation of the Euro block. If you are looking at selling your Euros in the next few months we offer contracts where you can sell your Euros now to settle in the future. this gives you the peace of mind in knowing exactly what you will achieve while taking no risk with currency fluctuations.

On this site all of the authors work for one of the largest currency brokers in the UK and we help clients exchange their funds at rates up to 4% better than the banks. Plus we offer a very personal service to give you the information needed to help you decide when to do your exchange.

If you would like more information on the currency service we provide then you may email myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk and I will explain the options available to you. If you would like to speak with me call the number on this site and ask for Ben Amrany

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR may fall further before a rise later in the year

GBPEUR has dipped this week as the Bank of England reins in its own forecasts on just when interest rates may rise. Given the recent run of not so great economic data that is not wholly surprising and this is a trend many of us had been predicting on our blogs. Raising interest rates is an extremely risky approach to the economy since the possible negative effects on the economy are large. It would cool the housing market and reduce peoples disposable income knocking further economic growth for the UK. The expectation is this trend lower on rates will continue in the coming months so anyone needing to buy currency in the future might wish to take stock of their options soon.

For more information please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR Rates TUMBLE – Sellers at 30 day HIGH – OPPORTUNITY FOR SELLERS

GBPEUR rates have fallen significantly this week with the largest daily fall seen only yesterday in the value of the Pound. This was down to a number of factors including a flags being raised with regards to wage inflation and equally comments by the Bank of England that suggested interest rates are unlikely to climb until 2015.  This change the amount of demand for the Pound and saw it fall in value.  It is my view however that current levels are still respectively attractive for GBPEUR buyers if you need to move in the next 30 days.  This is because I am wary that the Pound may not start a more negative trend in the build up to the Scottish vote in September. As the vote gets closer I expect the Pound to fall due to the fact that if the Scottish left the UK overall GDP figures, taxable revenues and growth would be significantly damaged.

 

Saying the above however rates never move in a straight line so timing a trade will be key – again in the next 7 days we have UK GDP figures tomorrow, Retail and Productivity figures next week.  This means that there will be better days than others which could make a significant difference in the amount of money you secure.  For more information on your options, possible strategies, live pricing and more contact the Author STEVE EAKINS via email at hse@currencies.co.uk

EU Inflation Weak But GBP EUR Still Dominated By Carney’s Comments At Yesterday’s Quarterly Inflation Report (Colm Gilhooly)

Whilst EU inflation and GDP today was disappointing, it looks as though sterling euro exchange rates are being dominated by Mark Carney’s comments at the Quarterly Inflation Report yesterday.  Whilst the Bank of England increased their growth forecasts for the UK in 2014 from 3.4% to 3.5%, Carney expressed concerns about wages not keeping pace with other rises in the economy.  He also highlighted a strong pound was a concern, and there were a number of global factors that made forecasting an interest rate hike difficult.  The one thing he was keen to stress was that any increases in the base rate of interest were likely to be gradual and over a prolonged period of time, and that “normal” levels in future were still likely to be below pre-recession levels.

This news took the wind out of sterling’s sails and saw the pound slump across the board.  We do have UK GDP revisions out tomorrow morning, along with inflation figures on Tuesday and the Bank of England Minutes on Wednesday, but unless these are well above forecast, or the Minutes show one of the MPC voted to raise rates this month, then I can’t see sterling gaining much ground in the short term.  Given for the last 2 months all 9 members have voted to hold, and the comments from the QIR yesterday, I would be very surprised if any of them have broken ranks at this stage.

This is a great opportunity for Euro sellers, and anybody looking to buy Euro may want to revise their expectations slightly from the near 2 year highs we have seen in the last month being improved upon in the near future.  If you are buying a property in France or Spain, or indeed selling a property abroad, and would like more information about our currency transfer service and how we can save you money on your exchange rate, then feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to help.

Sterling hit 1.26 in anticipation of UK unemployment figures (Tom Holian)

Sterling exchange rates against the Euro have picked up this morning to trading levels of just over 1.26 in anticipation of the UK unemployment data due out at 930am.

The expectation is for 6.4% which would be an improvement on last month’s figures and the best the data has been for almost ten years. With UK GDP hitting its highest levels in many years there appears to be a lot of confidence surrounding Sterling at the moment and this is the reason why the Pound remains strong.

An hour after the unemployment data the Bank of England publishes its Quarterly Inflation Report. Governor Mark Carney is also due to give his thoughts about inflation and the UK’s wider monetary policy so if there is any suggestion of an interest rate rise happening before the end of 2014 we could see the Pound rally against the Euro this morning.

Tomorrow sees German GDP as well as Eurozone GDP data. This should be closely watched by anyone with a currency transfer to make involving Sterling and Euro as this could provide a large amount of volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money when buying currency then contact me directly for a free quote. Working for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident we can save you money on exchange rates compared to using your bank. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

The best pound to euro rates could be slipping away this week

The best GBPEUR rates in two years might be about to slip away and anyone with a keen interest in maximising their exchange rate would do well to take stock of the current rate and what options are available. Complacency is a very dangerous thing when assessing the market and history tells us that just when everything appears to be headed in one direction, it is often the case exchange rates can take a turn for the worse. At the turn of last year GBPEUR was at 1,24 and by March it was 1.14.

With sterling close to 2 cents down from the recent highs it would appear the impressive gains of the last months have halted. The question now is how much further could the pound drop and tomorrow could give us a good idea. The Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report will give investors a chance to determine exactly what Mark Carney and the BoE members think moving forward about the UK economy.

To get the best deals on your currency exchange and to be kept up to date with the latest news and information please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Next week is important forGBPEUR!

Next week is potentially a very busy week for the GBPEUR exchange rate with the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report and the Eurozone GDP and Inflation data. I expect GBPEUR to suffer and fall slightly so if you need to make a currency exchange next week get in touch with us to see how things pan out. We have firm figures for Eurozone GDP also this week so anyone considering buying or selling Euros should be ready for a busy week ahead. Please speak to me Jonathan to get the best deals on your currency exchanges using jmw@currencies.co.uk

Which Way Will The Euro Go? (Colm Gilhooly)

So far this morning we have seen German trade figures come out better than expected alongside, alongside French Industrial output, which has given the Euro a slight boost.  This follows on from the ECB rate decision yesterday where Draghi didnt change monetary policy, however he still left the door wide open for further intervention if inflation remained weak.

Later this morning we have UK Trade Balance figures and it will be interesting to see if we are still anywhere near the export led recovery that has been much promised, or whether the strengthening pound has further damaged this.

The Bank of England also left rates unchanged as expected yesterday, but we have no idea at this stage if any members were calling for a hike in interest rates.

Next week will also be interesting certainly towards the latter part as we have UK jobs data and the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report on the Wednesday (Mark Carney will likely give us more guidance on policy but will he talk the pound down at all?), Eurozone inflation and GDP on Thursday, and UK GDP revisions for Q2 on Friday.  As such we are likely to have a much better feel for both UK and EU monetary policy as Carney will give guidance, and European data will potentially force Draghi’s hand if inflation and growth are low.

If you need to make a currency transfer and are looking to buy or sell euros (or any other currency for that matter, then why not get in touch to find out more about our currency transfer service.  I would be more than happy to explain how we can get the best exchange rate and make transferring money quick and easy.  Simply email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk with an overview of your currency needs and I will come back to you with no costs or obligations on your part.

GBP/EUR rates push back above 1.26 (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling exchange rates have pushed back through the 1.26 level following both the Bank of England and European Central Bank keeping their base rates on hold. This was not a surprise and it was the press conference by Mario Draghi that was to cause the market shoft.

After announcing measures in June to kick-start eurozone growth, the ECB says it will now keep rates low “for an extended period of time in view of the current outlook for inflation”.And ECB president Mario Draghi warned there would be a “continued moderate and uneven recovery” in the eurozone.

With Italy now officially back in the recession, and France’s President Francois Hollande warning about a “real deflationary risk” in Europe the eurozone is still under pressure and this could reflect or Euro rates. For this reason I believe GBP/EUR will remain consistently above the 1.26 level.

To get more information on the currency service we provide please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (Tom Holian)

The Bank of England has voted the same for the last 35 months in a row with a 9-0 vote in favour of no change. However, there have been recent signs of an interest rate rise coming sooner than the market currently expects.

If the announcement due shortly shows any change I think we could see a big positive movement for Sterling exchange rates against the Euro.

The European Central Bank interest rate decision is due at 1245pm and with inflation still running worryingly low I think the press conference due to be held later could see Euro weakness if Draghi’s comments are negative.

If you have a currency transfer coming up and want to compare exchange rates compared to using your bank or currency broker then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

This afternoon’s prediction Sterling Strength!