Monthly Archives: September 2014

GBPEUR at two year highs! Will it last?

GBPEUR rates are still extremely attractive and worth taking advantage of. The current outlook for sterling has been positive simply because of interest rate hike expectations for the UK economy. These expectations look set to remain the primary focus but I really feel interest rates will continue to be low for a very long time. The economy quite frankly cannot support the higher rates and it is likely the Eurozone will face further wobbles, further damaging UK trade.

If you need to buy Euros with the pound please speak to us for the best rates and service, please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Rates Move Through 1.28 (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates moved through 1.28 on the exchange during Thursday morning trading, moving the currency pair to a fresh two year high. The recent trend of GBP strength shows no signs of slowing but I do feel the EUR will find support if the pair continues on its upward curve around 1.29.

If we take a closer at the recent history of GBP/EUR we can see that at the start of 2014 the pair were trading just above 1.20. After today’s move through 1.28 it is apparent that the overwhelming market sentiment has been to support the Pounds rise, in line with the improvements seen in the UK economy during this period. The improvement has not gone unnoticed by the Bank of England and I do feel that they will soon step in, if Sterling continues to strengthen against the single currency, as they will fear a rising Pound could cause our export industry to stagnate, as our trade partners will find it too expense.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR rates steady at near 2 year HIGH

GBPEUR rates of exchange continue to climb as the UK continues to be seen as a safe haven away from the risky euro. European pressure is building on the central bank there to start additional stimulus including a new QE program. This could come this side of Christmas and is starting to be priced in, hence why the euro’s value is falling. Micro economic data is also showing signs of concerns in the Eurozone. German data showed that confidence in business is falling across the “engine room” of Europe. This was put down to building concerns about eastern Europe and the trade ties being cut with Russia.

Moving forward I don’t expect a huge difference in rates of exchange through this afternoon and the rest of the week as economic data is light. Next week when the new month starts is when rates should return back to the volatile trading period we have seen the last few weeks. So if you have any currency exposure and want to limit your exposure or maximise your trade make sure to get in contact in the near future. Our service here will allow you use LIMIT ORDERS, RATE ALERTS, SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS, SPOT & FORWARD CONTRACTS.

For more information please feel free to get in contact via email at hse@currencies.co.uk

Sterling steady as the market calms down following a busy few weeks (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling exchange rates have remained steady against the euro sitting at 1.2730 at the time of writing as the market cools following the Scottish referendum last week. For me we are now likely to see a period of consolidation for this pair with little data of not this week to impact either. With the current GBP/EUR rate close to a two year high it still represents strong value for anyone buying the single currency.

With a relatively quiet week following the havoc seen pre and post the Scottish independence vote, this could be a perfect time for you to take stock of your current position. It is important to get as much information as you can when making a decision on the timing of your trade and this is where our service can help. With access to numerous sources we aggressively undercut the banks and other financial institutions and aim to help our clients maximise their exchange. For more information on the full currency service we provide please email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling remains healthy after the Scottish referendum (Ben Amrany)

The pound has remained steady trading in the 1.27’s against the Euro as the dust seems to be settling after the Scottish referendum. I feel that rates will now remain range bound between 1.2650 and try to test 1.28 over the next week or so. We have seen a gain for the pound of over 3 cents when the pound bottomed out due to the uncertainty of the referendum so now does seem like a very attractive level to be buying Euros at.

The next main point of focus will be on when interest rates will rise in the UK again. This will be the main talking point and every economic data release will have a big impact on predicting the hike. The markets are expecting a rat rise in the Spring of 2015 and if pushed further back over the coming weeks or months we will see a decline for sterling at some stage.

Keep an eye out for German data tomorrow morning which could assist the pound rise if the data is below expectations.

 

If you require an exchange to buy or sell the pound against the Euro then please do feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk

 

Will European Data Do Well Enough To Stave Off Further Action From The ECB? (Colm Gilhooly)

With the Scottish Referendum now out of the way, and most UK data of late being reasonably positive, it looks as though market focus will switch to the Euro.  There are mortgage approvals and Public Sector Borrowing figures out for the UK tomorrow morning, but I don’t expect any radical movements for the pound unless these are wildly different to expectations.

With various bits of European data out tomorrow morning, they may have an influence, particularly if German PMI data is poor.  More German IFO data on Wednesday may reinforce a view of how Europe’s largest economy is faring but all the big European releases are next week with EU GDP revisions, German unemployment and EU inflation, and the ECB rate decision on Thursday.  If inflation is low, or the ECB indicate that further intervention is likely then the Euro could come under a lot more pressure, so Euro sellers will need to be very aware of what is coming up.  Conversely if Mario Draghi can wave his magic wand and convince markets everything is ok as he has done many times in the past, we may see the pound lose some of its recent gains against the single currency.  Likewise if inflation is very low and other European indicators improve then we may see the same result.

Given how much hinges on the next few weeks for the Euro, it would be worth getting in touch early if you need to make a currency transfer, particularly if you are selling a property in Europe and want to get the best exchange rate.  Please feel free to email Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to explain how our services work and run through some options that may suit you and help save you money.

Scottish No Vote give Sterling a lift against the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates briefly touched above 1.28 today immediately after the release of the referendum vote which was released at 6am this morning.

If you’ve been reading my previous articles I was very clear that I thought a No vote would prevail but with a 55/45 vote was perhaps a little too close for comfort.

The GBPEUR rates have been pricing these figures in for the last few days and even with the vote this morning I think the gains will be only short lived. Indeed, since the start of the trading session Sterling Euro rates have already dropped by 1 cent from this morning’s highs.

Next week I think we’ll see Sterling just drift lower against the single currency as the speculation calms down.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

 

 

GBPEUR could fall tomorrow if they declare independence in Scotland, GBPEUR at 1.27

A Yes vote could cause sterling to plunge for an extended time as nobody really knows how it would pan out, this would be a case of major uncertainty something the markets don’t like! This is likely to cause a panic sell off off the pound, if you need to buy or sell the pound please make contact with our team as we will be here to assist with your options and offer the very best exchange rates.

GBPEUR hit 1.27 todya presenting an excellent opportunity in a very risky market. If you need to make a transfer please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Rises Ahead of Scottish Referendum Results (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have risen during Thursday’s trading ahead of the Scottish referendum results, which are expected by early tomorrow. It’s been a volatile week for the currency pair, with various polls indicating a tight race between the Yes & No votes. This uncertainty initially destabilised the Pound, with GBP/EUR dropping below 1.24 at last weeks low, before recovering back to its current position. Today’s positive move has pushed GBP/EUR rates back towards a two year high, providing some excellent buying opportunities.

It does seem as if the markets have now factored in a No vote, so I don’t necessarily anticipate a major spike if this is indeed the outcome. However, any breakaway for Scotland is likely to cause the Pound to drop quickly and aggressively, so it may be protecting yourselves around the current levels.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

UK Unemployment Drops Again But Scottish Vote Still Dominating Exchange Rates (Colm Gilhooly)

The Bank of England Minutes showed no surprises, and UK unemployment has dropped again however everything seems to be on hold until Scotland decides whether to remain part of the UK or not.  The expectation is that Scotland will vote No to independence however the polls are so finely balanced at the minute that markets are incredibly nervous.

In the event of a No vote I think we will see sterling experience a relief rally as the uncertainty is lifted (and most UK data of late has been reasonably good).  However a Yes vote and all bets are off- some analysts are evening forecasting the pound may drop as much as 10% in a panic sell off as investors wait to see what the implications are.

Personally I anticipate a No vote so if you are holding Euro, or any other currency for that matter, and are looking to buy sterling then I would cash in before the exit polls start showing too strongly tomorrow evening.  However it is a big gamble either way so if you would prepare not to wait then feel free to contact me Colm at cmg@currencies.co.uk and I would be happy to take you through some options and explain how our services work to save you money.

Scottish independence vote still dominating the market as the Bank of England minutes show no surprises (Mike Vaughan)

This mornings Bank of England minutes showed a 7-2 split in favour of holding interest rates at 0.5% as expected. This came as unemployment figures fell from 6.3% to 6.2%

Sterling has had an extremely volatile start to the month as the Scottish independence vote continues to play havoc with the value of sterling. Following last Sunday’s poll suggesting the ’yes’ vote was leading; a poll last week indicated that the vote was now creeping in favour of the ‘no’ camp. This uncertainty is creating big swings and the market volatility is clear to see with the pound having shifted from a high low of 1.2620-1.2390 against against the Euro (1.9%) last week alone.

Sterling/Euro

GBP/EUR rates are still trading just a cent off from a near two year high and again this week’s movements are set to be dominated by sterling’s shifts. For me I still believe the ‘no’ vote will prevail and as a result I would expect the pound to see some support when the results from the referendum will be released on Thursday. Should you be selling Euros you may wish consider your position before the 18th

A word of warning however, should the vote be a yes then some analysts are suggesting the pound could lose as much as 10%!!!

Should you like to get more information on the currency service we provide then please contact the office on 01494 787478 or email mgv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling slightly up as the Scottish referendum gets ever so closer. (Ben Amrany)

We are hearing the No campaign is slightly ahead in the polls after last week the No’s were slightly ahead. This has given the pound a rise from, last weeks lows of 1.2394 and is pushing the 1.2550 level. Today CPI inflation for the UK came out pretty much as expected so eyes are now looking towards the bank of England minutes out tomorrow to see if any further members are voting for an interest rate hike. last month the split was 7-2 and if we see a 6-3 then the pound could well be in for further gains.

The main risk factor though for anyone with a requirement is the Scottish Referendum. The way that I see it is as follows.There is likely to be a major reaction, particularly for sterling, whichever way the vote goes. A vote for independence will highly likely result in a further appreciable sterling sell-off causing the pound to fall by as much as 10% over the coming weeks and months. A vote for Scotland to remain in the UK is likely to lead to a significant relief rally for the pound and we could see a slight gain from the current trading levels.

For those looking at selling the pound the risk to gain ratio is not worth taking the gamble on what may occur. With the polls so close at the moment the risks of losing thousands of the currency you need to buy by waiting until after the vote could be extremely costly and we have seen many clients capitalise on the current rates due to the uncertainty. It is not inconceivable that the YES campaign will be victorious and it could be the biggest surprise of our generation.

So if you need to buy or sell the pound against the Euro then please do feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk If you inform me of your requirement I will explain the options available to you in trying to minimise any risks to the market and help you achieve a better rate than the banks.

hank you for reading

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

 

GBPEUR this week – Scottish vote takes all focus

GBPEUR rates have been very volatile in the build-up to the Scottish vote this week and will continue to do so. I expect rates to fall for the Pound in the run up to the event as uncertainty is priced into the market. If the union stays then rates should recover to a similar level that we saw at the beginning of the week, however the risk is if they do decide to vote YES and leave. In this scenario I expect rates to fall significantly and make things significantly more expensive.

Economic data traditionally drives the market however this is being over shadowed in the build-up to the vote this week. There is however key data from the BOE and the Fed this week which could have an impact. This is the BOE minutes which could increase the likelihood of an interest rate change in the UK, the FED is also reporting following their meeting and could equally show a increased chance of interest rates climbing in the world’s largest economy. If either are confirmed expect the currency in question to strengthen.

For a full break down of what is happening, access to live levels or the tools available to help contact the author – STEVE EAKINS – via email at hse@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR is very volatile, have you made plans for the unexpected?

With very little out on the economic calendar for the pound tomorrow, sterling moves look set to continue to be driven by the headlines relating to the Scottish Referendum. A Yes vote would be disastrous in the short term for UK plc as investors struggled to make sense of UK economic policy moving forward.I feel the No vote would remain the most likely outcome and despite some losses sterling in the last week as the Yes vote gathers place, I do feel personally on the day many Scottish will be keen to remain part of the Union. Assumes the No vote triumphs I would expect the pound to rise after the vote on the 18th but recommend anyone considering buying or selling sterling get in touch with us to discuss all of their options.

 

 

How is the Scottish vote affecting Sterling Euro Rates? (Tom Holian)

The Scottish vote has caused Sterling to move rather a lot since the weekend against the Euro. The high to low movement has been as much as 2% or the difference of £2,500 on a currency transfer of €200,000.

The three leading political leaders of the UK are currently in Scotland to campaign for the ‘No’ vote in order to keep the UK united. PM David Cameron has been quoted as saying he would be ‘heartbroken’ if the UK breaks up.

France has missed its deficit target which shows that the 2nd largest economy in the Eurozone is struggling. The budget deficit is currently around 4.4% with the target level of 3% so if this Scottish issue sorts itself out then we could see the Euro weaken over the next few days.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Scottish referendum playing havoc with the pound (Mike Vaughan)

Sterling once again has had an extremely volatile week as the Scottish independence vote continues to play havoc with the value of sterling. Following Sunday’s poll suggesting the ’yes’ vote was leading; a poll yesterday indicated that the vote was now a 50/50 split.

This uncertainty is creating big swings and the market volatility is clear to see, something I feel will only continue as the key day of the 18th draws ever closer. As a result the pound has shifted from a high low of 1.2645-1.2397 against the Euro (2%) this week alone.

As the market appears to be focusing entirely on the Scottish independence, other data sets are not having the usual impact on the pound. Yesterday industrial and manufacturing figures were better than forecast and Mark Carney also hinted the first rate hike could be in the spring of 2015.

Under normal trading conditions I would have expected the pound to have gained in value, however one thing can be said the current trading conditions are far from normal and highlights how important it is to keep in contact with your broker.

Email Mike at mgv@currencies.co.uk for more information on the currency service we provide.

Sterling Suffers owing to Scottish Referendum (Tom Holian)

Sterling has continued to fall against the Euro following the opinion poll released over the weekend.

The rates fell again today as rumours are that the vote is gaining momentum and this is causing investors to sell off the Pound and look at other currencies for safer returns at the moment.

My personal opinion is that I don’t think the Yes vote will go through next week but as the market is uncertain this is why I think we’re seeing a fall for Sterling and will continue to do so over the course of the next few days.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney said earlier that UK interest rates may rise by Spring 2015 but as many analysts expected this to come much before I think this is why Sterling has weakened against the Euro.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Sterling recovers after its biggest one day loss this year. (Ben Amrany)

The pound has recovered from one of the worst one day losses for sterling exchange rates this year as concerns regarding the Scottish referendum made the stock market and pound crash yesterday. The uncertainty regarding will the yes or no campaign win the referendum will continue to spook the pound until the final votes are counted on the 18th or September. After GBP/EUR hit a low of 1.2430 yesterday it did rebound after some positive economic data out of the UK assisted a rise back to 1.2529 first thing. Comments from the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney also contributed in the rise as he stated that UK interest rates could rise by the Spring of 2015. A little further back than the markets predictions of February 15 so once the news was digested the rate fell back to a low of 1.2482.

If you have a requirement to buy or sell the pound rates really could go either way due to the uncertainty that it is causing for the markets. The last thing that markets want is uncertainty and if the referendum goes through as a no which we do still expect the current levels are currently giving you a good window of opportunity for the next week to capitalise on the current rates

If you do require an exchange to bring funds back to the UK then you may contact myself Ben Amrany at bma@currencies.co.uk to find out more about our personal service and rates to help you maximise your exchange. If you explain your requirement I can then call you to discuss the options available to you.

Thank you for reading

Ben Amrany

bma@currencies.co.uk

Will the Euro Strengthen against Sterling this week? (Tom Holian)

The Euro has had mixed fortunes last week with the ECB announcing an interest rate cut to just 0.05% and charging banks 0.2% to keep their money on deposit. Typically this would see a huge weakening effect on the currency involved, in this case the Euro. However, owing to the uncertainty about the Scottish referendum vote due to take place on September 18th this could see Sterling experiencing a very difficult and volatile fortnight against the Euro.

Global investors do not like uncertainty and with a poll last week showing close to 50/50 Sterling is wobbling at the moment.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney is due to speak next week and I think he will again avoid any questions relating to UK interest rates which could see Sterling weaken.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP/EUR Rates Float Around 1.26 (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have remained fairly flat during Friday’s trading, which is in stark contrast to yesterday’s aggressive move. GBP gained over a cent against the single currency, as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its base interest rate to 0.05%. This move was most likely initiated due to the recent poor Eurozone inflation data and although the EUR has found resistance around 1.26 today, I wouldn’t anticipate any sustained gains for the single currency in the short-term.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk