Monthly Archives: November 2014

GBPEUR rates fall

GBPEUR has had a real rollercoaster today as we have warned on our various blogs and conversations with clients. The outlook for the rate for me is not too good if buying euros. I would expect the rates will fall into trouble in the New Year with the UK’s General Election and other news likely to weigh on confidence. It may be that we have seen evidence of what to expect today, in short if you have funds to move in 2015, making some careful plans now might be sensible.

Please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more about what to expect.

GBP/EUR Falls Below 1.26 (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates dipped back below 1.26 on the exchange during Friday’s trading. The EUR gained some momentum during Friday morning’s trading and it now seems as though the pair will trade below 1.26 as we head into the weekend. Sterling had recovered somewhat this week and it did seems if a move back towards 1.27 was on the cards. As often happens though the currency markets have proved unpredictable and the EUR has made unexpected gains, despite European Central Banks (ECB) president Mario Draghi’s comments that the central bank were ready to introduce ‘drastic measure’ to combat the on-going threat of deflation.

Looking ahead and key economic data for next week includes Monday’s UK Manufacturing and Tuesdays Construction data, followed by Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and Retail Sales on Wednesday. These are likely to cause additional volatility on GBP/EUR rates and should be monitored closely. We also have the latest Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision on Thursday, so expect a busy week on the markets.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling trading at 1.26 (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR exchange rates have traded either side of 1.26 today as Thanksgiving in the US has kept currency markets quiet.

Eurozone Consumer Price Index is due out tomorrow and this will likely cause volatility for GBPEUR rates as low inflation has been the key factor in the ECB’s recent monetary policy decisions.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBPEUR – Forecasts for the next 3 weeks

GBPEUR levels have fallen again today and it is a trend I expect to continue until the end of the week. As a result anyone buying euros should really be looking to move sooner rather than later if you are needing euros this week.

Next week people are generally planning on trading on Tuesday before the Autumn Statement form the chancellor, this is expected to be a negative day, so people are trying to avoid it. Through December if you have the full month to trade, people are looking at week two.

These are all based on client information and intentions, situations will be different so it is always best to discuss your situation with a expert i.e. US!

If you would like more information please contact myself directly, Steve Eakins via hse@currencies.co.uk

 

Euro sellers should probably move sooner

If you need to sell Euros in the future moving sooner might be the wisest course of action to avoid potential pitfalls from a weakening Euro. Mario Draghi made clear recently that he felt there was a significant chance of more QE in the future, many observers of the market now believe the Eurozone will enter a period of stagnation similar to the that in Japan. Japan has been in a period of ‘stagflation’ for many years with a stagnating economy and inflation problems as people stop spending money in anticipation of future falling prices.

The Japanese Yen has weakened to near historical lows as the problems have deteriorated, this could easily happen in the future with the Euro.

For more information please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Rates Flat Ahead of Tomorrow’s UK GDP Figures (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have remained flat during Tuesday morning’s trading ahead of some key economic data releases for both the UK & Eurozone. Sterling has managed to recover back up to 1.26 against the EUR following some heavy losses last week but the EUR has found support around the current levels.

Personally I still feel GBP will struggle to break back through 1.27 based on the current market conditions, although the on-going turmoil inside the Eurozone means that GBP/EUR rates are likely to remain volatile in the build-up to Christmas. Tomorrow’s UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are always considered a key data release and along with Eurozone Consumer Confidence anmd Unemployment figures on Thursday and Friday respectively could cause additional movement on our most regularly traded currency pair.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Time to BUY Euros? Best Exchange Rates (Andrew Bromley)

Sterling has made a strong improvement against the Euro this morning, primarily due to Euro weakness. The market opened in the early 1.25s and seemed set to trade either side of 1.25. Mario Draghi (Head of the ECB) talked the Euro down to provide Euro buyers the window craved for nearly two weeks, with the ‘interbank rate’ finding support at 1.2590 / 1.26. This was not even weakened when the UK Public Sector Net Borrowing figure came in higher than expected – a figure of £7.055 Billion!

Looking forwards I don’t think that either side of the currency pair will make good headway – I believe the range will be circa 1.24 – 1.265. If I were buying Euros I’d be looking to get something done pretty swiftly to take advantage of the current market.

Please feel free to drop me a line if you have a transfer requirement. Call the trading floor direct on 01494 787 478 or email me AJB@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR rates climb a cent in the space of 2 hours

GBPEUR rates have recovered slightly today climbing by nearly a cent. This is only a small recovery compared to the 4 cents drop seen over the last 14 days but should certainly not be overlooked. The reason for the climb is worse than expected data from Germany and EU plus better than expected figures coming out of the UK for Retail figures. The reason why people should see this as good news is because generally I expect to see rates fall further rather than climb up towards the end of the year.  There seems to be a real political play taking place in the UK at the moment as Labour starts their campaign. third strongest argument seems to be economically so they are expected to tarnish the views on the UK weakening the Pound as their campaign takes shape. “Stay with us we have a plan, don’t vote another party in.”  This will probably be seen in a matter of weeks when the next UK budget is given in early December and should certainly be something you should be aware of and have a plan for.

If you want more information or want to discuss the above along with forecasts please let me know.

All the best,

Steve

hse@currencies.co.uk

Will GBP/EUR Rates Bounce Back?

It’s been a volatile few days for GBP/EUR rates, with the EUR strengthening significantly following the release of last week’s UK quarterly inflation report. With UK interest rates now likely to stay on hold until the last quarter of 2015, many investors have sold off their Sterling positions causing the Pound to drop by over 3 cents from last weeks’ high.

This morning the latest Bank of England (BoE) minutes were released and it was interesting to note that despite last week’s indication that UK interest rates would not be raised anytime soon, two of the BoE members still voted in favour of a rate hike, news which has helped alleviate Sterling’s losses and helped push GBP/EUR back towards 1.25.

Key data for the rest of the week includes tomorrow’s UK Retail Sales figures and Eurozone Consumer Confidence, both of which are likely to cause further volatility for GBP/EUR exchange rates.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling falling

Sterling is a sell at the moment as investment and demand falls through the floor. This is as growth and inflation data falls along with the forecast for when interest rates will go up. All traders are selling GBP meaning levels have dropped nearly 3 cents in 3 days! A scary figure for anyone buying in Europe but great news for anyone selling in Euro and coming back to the UK.  This gives sellers the best opportunity sellers have seen in Weeks.

Rates are expected to continue in this trend now for the next few days as new ranges are set, this will probably be about 1.25-1.26.  So if you are a buyer needing euros within the next few weeks I would be moving very quickly!

Next week Tuesday is the busy days with lots of UK information, it will probably help the Pound recover on the day but I think it won’t give better levels than we have this morning.

For more information contact Steve Eakins at hse@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR fall is not unexpected and may get worse

GBPEUR dropped last week as the Bank of England confirmed interest rate rises are likely to be much further into 2015 than previously thought. From here on it is highly likely that the pound will come under more pressure as the main reason for GBP strength this year is the high expectation of an interest rate rise for the UK. Moving forward I expect any interest rate rise for the UK will be put much further back and GBP will suffer as a result.

If you wish to learn a little more about how this will impact your currency transfer please don’t hesitate to contact me directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Why is Sterling Euro Falling? (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs Euro has continued its fall this morning following the UK’s Quarterly Inflation Report.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has suggested that inflation may fall below 1% during the next 6 months which means an interest rate rise for the UK has been pushed further back.

UK inflation is currently at a 5 year low at 1.2% and governor Carney thinks it may not hit 2% for three years. With an interest rate hike now being pushed back towards the end of 2015 this has encouraged investors to sell Sterling which is one of the major reasons for this week’s currency movements.

The ECB monthly report is due shortly and any negative comments could lead to some volatility on GBPEUR exchange rates this morning.

Tomorrow is likely to be the biggest mover with the release of both inflation numbers as well as Eurozone GDP.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Banks “to big to fail” results

Exchange rates are driven by a number of factors including economic events, political events, acts of terror and acts of god. Traditionally it is the economic information which drives the market day by day but the others can also have a large impact, you just find yourself being reactive to them rather that proactive. For example floors in the UK impacting economic output.  Recently political information has also impacted markets, I am talking about the Financial Stability Committee which yesterday come out with a proposal on how to avoid future bank bailouts.  This being to stop the “too big to fail” banks which governments around the world were bailing out in 2008 which generations will be paying for.  It seems unfair that the banks which can make lots of money when times are good need to be bailed out by the general public when it goes wrong.  They have proposed that they key banks need to hold 20% capital to avoid this in the future, it is just a proposal at the moment but could be law by 2019, so five years away.  If this does become law, expect the cost of borrowing to go up significantly as the banks try to raise capital.

For more information on how this could impact currency markets going forward please contact myself, Steve Eakins – hse@currencies.co.uk

When is the best time to make a GBPEUR transfer?

Tomorrow is expected to be a very busy day on GBPEUR with a number of important data releases which could move the market. I personally favour the pound longer term as the UK appears to be in a better position than the Eurozone. However since the UK relies heavily on a buoyant Eurozone this will not necessarily translate into better rates for those buying Euros with the pound.

Looking at the forecast for the pound GBP strength is not necessarily guaranteed and if you need to buy the Euro with sterling it might be well worth taking stock of the current market and trying to limit your risk with one of our contract options. For more information on how ot protect yourself please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR Rates Rise (Tom Holian)

With data a little thin on the ground today GBPEUR exchange rates have gained ground against Friday’s trading session to hit 1.2770 this afternoon.

Wednesday could be a very interesting day for Sterling exchange rates with the release of both UK unemployment as well as the Quarterly Inflation Report.

UK unemployment is only just behind that of the US and inflation is much higher than the Eurozone. I expect the unemployment data to be strong but the Inflation Report could cause volatility for Sterling as inflation last month fell more than expected which has put an interest rate rise further back.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

UK’s EU Bill to be Halved? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have remained around the levels of 1.27 this week and have kept Sterling strong.

The ECB yesterday did not intervene with monetary policy as many thought they would but ECB President Mario Draghi did suggest that something may have to be done soon as Eurozone unemployment is still worryingly high.

With Eurozone inflation also still low it could be argued that the ECB did not act yesterday as they are waiting to see if the previous actions in September and October will take effect. However, I do expect something to happen at December’s meeting and GBPEUR rates could rise over the next few weeks.

The UK has also this afternoon announced that they have agreed a package with the EU about halving the £1.7bn budget surcharge recently levied. This is likely to provide some good news for Sterling exchange rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBPEUR rates climb once more as European bank confirms spending

Yesterday the European central bank put on a united front and confirmed or at least gave the impression that as was well within the bank. Earlier this week there had been building speculation that the 24 member bank may not be behind its president creating a lot of uncertainty which we know the banks don’t like. This was brushed aside yesterday as the bank moved forward with its expanding balance sheets. They now suggest that there will be another billion euros worth of stimulus which weakened the euro significantly giving buyers of the single currency the best price we have seen for some time now. Levels have been over 14.2820 and ignoring a 3 hour window after the Scottish vote in September gives clients the best levels we have seen for over 2 years.

Today the dust will settle and I expect some profit taking so for levels to fall back. Eyes will be ion the US this afternoon with non-farm payroll released. This is one of the largest economic release each month and could change the USDEUR trade, the worlds most traded pair. Which in turn could impact the cost of buying the euro with the pound this afternoon.

For more information on the above and a personal view for your situation please contact myself, Steve Eakins, via email at hse@currencie.co.uk

GBPEUR rates wobbly but eyes are now on tomorrows decisions

Sterling has already seen a large swing in its value against the single currency over the last 3 days. Levels have climbed by almost 2 cents before falling a cent in yesterday’s trading. These loses were seen as the central bank in Europe released forecasts for growth which were dramatically cut. This lower growth has an impact on the demand for the UK’s exports, over 60% of which go to Europe. We also saw US data miss expectation, their exports fell dramatically resulting in money flowing from the green back to the single currency.

Moving forward watch out for the interest rate decision both in the UK and Europe tomorrow. This will be rather interesting, especially in Europe as the head of the bank trying to fight falling inflation. It is also their first opportunity to really comment on the US tapering coming to an end which could throw up some surprises.  Contact us here for a full break-down of the data ahead and the expectation on the currency market. Call on the normal number found here or email me directly at hse@currencies.co.uk

Where Next for GBP/EUR Exchange Rates? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates touched 1.28 during Tuesday’s trading before dropping back during afternoon trading. With the EUR seemingly finding support around 1.28, Sterling may struggle to break this barrier in the short-term, despite the positive Manufacturing data posted yesterday.

Looking ahead and there are a number of key data releases this week, which could affect both GBP & EUR exchange rates. Tomorrow we have the latest Eurozone Retail Sales figures, along with some PMI data. However, it is Thursday which is likely to dominate headlines with the latest Bank of England (BoE) & European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions and monetary policy statements, both if which are considered key market movers

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Eurozone Cuts Forecast (Tom Holian)

The Eurozone has cut is growth forecast to 0.8% from 1.2% for 2014. The outlook for next year has also been cut to 1.1% rather than the previous forecast of 1.7%. This is bad news for the single currency as it means less investment in the Euro which could inevitably weaken the Euro against Sterling in the long term.

However, later in the afternoon following the announcement of low US Trade Balance figures this saw Dollar weakness which led to the Euro strengthening briefly against Sterling.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk