Monthly Archives: September 2015

Carney speech causes GBP weakness with more expected (Joshua Privett)

The Pound slipped to its lowest level in almost 5 months against the Dollar yesterday, and to a similar position against the Euro, as we waited for Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, to deliver a speech.

In the most recent Bank of England minutes, the word China was mentioned 10 times across the 7 pages of the report. With the current market obsession at further bad news expected from China on Thursday morning, observers were wondering if Carney would give indications on how this would impact the UK’s timeline for raising interest rates.

Instead, he didn’t mention China at all.

Understandably, markets were shocked at the large platter of issues on the table which he chose not to touch. Instead he addressed the looming threat of climate change to global stability.

I know this is a big issue, but now is hardly the time.

By not addressing the elephant in the room, markets took his evasiveness negatively, and GBP/EUR has already started to fall.

You can’t raise rates if you expect global demand for your goods and services to be weakening. Arguably the most important determinant of any major currency’s value since the 2007/8 financial crisis has been when the country will be raising interest rates. So his avoidance of the Chinese data to come out has caused markets to already start to price in the idea of further slowdowns in China delaying interest rate rises. Which is why rates dipped below 1.35 once more this morning.

If I had Euros to secure over the next few weeks I would be looking to move sooner rather than later to avoid further expense.

Anyone with Euros to buy I strongly recommend contacting me on 01494 787 478 and asking the reception for Joshua to receive a competitive quote on your transfer and tailored advice on your situation. jjp@currencies.co.uk

EURGBP rates climbing

Rates climbing for euro sellers

the price of the euro is climbing at the moment against the Pound. The reason for this is demand for the currency as traders off-load their carry trades.  A carry trade is what the financial industry use to make money, they borrow in a low costing currency and invest in a higher return. So borrow in Europe at 0.05% and then invest in Australia where rates are over 3%.  The problem is that these investments are very open to risk of global growth and slowdown, so with concerns growing in China about growth these investments are being ‘unwound’. So they are reversing the position, selling AUD and buying EUROS.  This huge swing in demand is impacting both currencies values and helping people in the opposite direction.

So anyone with EUROS to sell are seeing an opportunity which many are taking full advantage of.

The next lot of China data is due on Wednesday evening so the best levels this week for Euro sellers are probably going to be Thursday.  EURO buyers mean the opposite however, that moving sooner rather than later may be wise.

For more information on how to maximise your trades on the market feel free to get in contact – Steve Eakins – hse@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR at 1.3523 (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/EUR currently sits at 1.3523, It is an excellent opportunity for Euro buyers. We are seeing resistance everytime GBP/EUR breaks 1.35. If I was buying Euros I would be moving now.

I am currently offering a free rate alert service, just drop a line or e-mail with your currency requirements including your time scale and the levels you are hoping to obtain and I will notify you of  any significant movement.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me on  dcj@currencies.co.uk   or call on  01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

 

 

GBP/EUR rates set for further slides (Joshua Privett)

After a surprising reversal in fortunes for the Euro last week, can we expect further gains for the Euro on GBP/EUR exchange rates.

Gains on Friday afternoon saw the single currency almost hit 1.34 on GBP/EUR once more.

After a start to the week where rates were almost at 1.40 again following the scandal over at Volkswagen, which saw capital fly out of the Eurozone stock markets and the Euro itself, a few events triggered the reversal in fortunes which has benefited Euro sellers heavily.

Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank, stated that further quantitative easing for the Eurozone (essentially cash injections) was yet to be decided. In past speeches he had spoken of this form of emergency financial stimulus as a near certainty. This change in tone injected a lot of confidence into the Eurozone economy. The resulting Euro strength was why rates fell so sharply on GBP/EUR during Friday afternoon.

The second factor for the drop was GBP weakness, and this was actually caused from positive news in the US economy.

Janet Yellen, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of America, essentially guaranteed a rate hike before the end of 2015.

Since the 2007/8 financial crisis, arguably the main determinant of any major currency value has been has been its timeline to raise interest rates once more.

Andy Haldane, one of the members of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has put a more negative view of the UK’s own timeline out for the public to see recently. Stating that cuts may be necessary in the future to protect the UK against this recent global economic slowdown. As such the USD has become a more attractive currency to hold, and the mass sell-off of Sterling to buy USD has caused the Pound to weaken across the board against most major currency pairs.

With a quiet week of data releases ahead there aren’t any forecasted opportunities for fortunes to reverse in the favour of Euro buyers.

In fact of the few data releases available, most are from the US economy and all are expected to come in positively, as a result, this may tempt further GBP sell offs and cause further downward GBP/EUR spikes.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros to buy should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception for Joshua to receive a free quote on your transfer, as well as tailored advice on how to get the best rate of exchange and avoid further losses. Even if your requirements are not for a few months, these rates can be pegged at no additional cost to protect yourself from market volatility.

Anyone with Euros to sell, contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy on how to ride this current move in your favour.

 

 

 

The Euro fights back against Pound Sterling (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro rates have hit the lowest levels for over 4 months as the Euro fights back against the Pound.

Earlier this month there was a raised expectation that the Eurozone would look at additional QE if inflation rates continue to fall. Added to this was the reduction in growth forecasts for the Eurozone.

However, during the week the LTRO (long term refinancing option) was reduced from as much as EUR73bn to just EUR17bn which effectively means more confidence in the banking sector which was wobbling earlier this year during the Greek crisis.

As of last weekend the Syriza party maintained their power in Greece which has added to the stability for single currency and another reason why the Euro has strengthened against Sterling recently.

Next week sees two big data releases for the Euro with both inflation data and unemployment rate figures.

This could provide a big catalyst for the next movements for Sterling vs Euro exchange rates as if inflation falls this could bring the argument for further QE back into the spotlight.

However, although I expect inflation to be low I don’t think it will come out below 0% which is the expectation and therefore I predict we’ll see the Euro strengthen during the latter part of the week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

GBPEUR rates falling (Steve Eakins)

Sterling levels have fallen across the board this week again. The market had generally recovered from a lot of its losses seen at the beginning of the month when GBPEUR levels fell 10 cents in as many days.  The reason for this fall yesterday was the same as it was 4 weeks ago, that being China.  China is going through a process of being more honest with its economic forecast. They are simply growing at a slower pace than they have previously been forecasted to have.  This is having a negative impact on global risk and the Pound is the one falling in value as a result.

The concern is now, as we enter the next cycle of months economic data that we could easily see this again. I am of this view that this could easily happen disappointing a lot of people.

The other side of the coin however is the prospect of the IMF deal that is being re-done for Greece. This has been scheduled to take place through the month of October and with is Euro weakness has generally been expected.  I would say however that with the fundamentals of the EU under threat from the refuge crises that the IMF deal will not have anywhere near as much of an impact that many had thought and hoped.

As a result I would suggest buyers to look sooner rather than later at the positions and put plans together. I know that current rates are down, at 1.37 when we were 1.39 earlier this week but learn from what we saw three weeks ago when levels fell all the way down to 1.31.  Does the risk out way the potential benefits? I don’t think so, I think rates will either climb a little or fall a lot over the next 14 days.

For more information contact myself Steve Eakins via email – hse@currencies.co.uk

Sterling continues to lose ground against the euro (Dayle Littlejohn)

Its been another poor day for clients looking to buy euros. GBP/EUR dropped over a cent and half, however recovered to a cent loss by the end of the trading day. This is a 6 week low for GBP/EUR.

This comes off the back of Mario Draghi yesterday eliminating all talks of an increase in quantitative easing. Draghi explained that inflation is a worry and the ECB would step in if required, however they wouldn’t just up the amount for a short term solution.

Further to this it now appears the Greek issue has been resolved, as Alexis Tsipras won the general election. This has given further support for the euro.

I’m of the opinion a fantastic window of opportunity has now presented itself for euro sellers. Therefore if you have been holding onto euros for a better exchange rate, I would recommend emailing me directly with your requirements drl@currencies.co.uk or alternatively call me directly on 0044 1494 787 478.

 

A volatile day for GBP/EUR? (Dayle Littlejohn)

Today at 2pm, President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi is set to give a press conference regarding the current European economy. Many investors and speculators will be keeping both eyes on this speech as many believe Draghi could up the amount of quantitative easing in order to stimulate the European economy and combat deflation.

If speculation becomes truth it wouldn’t surprise me if sterling makes considerable gains against the euro. However ECB’s Ewald Nowotny spoke to Bloomberg this morning and exclaimed the ECB would not act in the short term and up quantitative easing as a short term fix. His comments this morning have given some relief for the euro, however if Draghi contradicts Nowotny investors are going to completely lose faith in the ECB and rates will rocket.

Still time for euro sellers?

6 weeks ago GBP/EUR floated in the 1.40s and euro sellers hoped and wished the rates would drop. An expected plummet in the Chinese stock market known as ‘Black Monday’  provided the drop and a window of opportunity and I hope all clients moved on this spike. However if this is not the case, there is still time this morning to put a strategy in place and minimise your exposure. I strongly recommend emailing me immediately in order to understand the process of using a brokerage and to receive a free live quote. drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn.

Euro weakens, Is it going to get worse? (Daniel Johnson)

Unexpected news again causes unforeseen volatility on the currency market. VW faked  emission results  through a cunning ruse to pass emission standards on some of their vehicles. They are facing a huge fine which has led to a 20% fall in their share price. Euro has taken a hit and GBP/EUR stood at a day high of 1.3894.  With rumours filtering through of more QE in the Eurozone I think there could be the possibility we hit above 1.3950.

If you are selling Euros I would be looking to move ASAP. I can’t see GBP/EUR getting back to 1.36 any time soon.

I do have several large EUR-GBP trades going through in the coming days that potentially I could tag new clients on to and achieve a very competitive rate. Please do get in touch if this is something of interest.

I am currently offering a free rate alert service, just drop a line or e-mail with your currency requirements including your time scale and the levels you are hoping to obtain and I will notify you of  any significant movement.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me on dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

GBP/EUR gets helping hand from corporate misconduct (Joshua Privett)

The post below notes the likely weakening effect we will be seeing for Euro value tomorrow during the speech by Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank, tomorrow and markets are already pricing these changes in ahead of the event.

The reason why the rates spiked higher than expected was also due to the news emerging about the ethical foul-play of German car manufacturer Volkswagen. The CEO admitted that the company had intentionally deceived regulators about the emissions coming from their cars. As a result, for more than a year their cars have been illegally polluting. They face fines rumored to be more than €17bn. Their stocks fell 20% and with 1 in every 7 Germans employed in the automobile industry, confidence in the Eurozone’s powerhouse economy has dwindled.

I am expecting further Euro weakness as we journey into Mario Draghi’s speech tomorrow. Anyone with Euros to buy may see one of the last significant spikes in their favour this year now that Greece has been swept under the rug for the foreseeable future with this recent election result.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros to buy in the next few months should contact me ahead of the event to discuss a strategy to take advantage of spikes in your favour throughout the course of Wednesday. Limit orders can be placed through specialist foreign exchanges such as ourselves which Banks do not provide to customers. This is where currency is automatically bought for you if the rate spikes up to a level of your choosing, even for a few seconds. Our clients have regularly taken advantage of Draghi’s speech in such ways and reasonable goals have achieved profitable results. Contact me by calling 01494 787 478 and asking reception for Joshua to receive tailored advice on your situation and a free quote on your transfer. jjp@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR spiking following Greek Election (Joshua Privett)

The Syriza Party have held on power after a weekend election which surprised everyone with the clear majority of the Syriza party. With polls in a dead heat, the margin of victory of 11% showed a shockingly strong mandate for the Syriza Party. Their share of 35% of the vote was enough for them to gain a coalition easily in order to form their majority.

The party who negotiated the bailout remains in power, and the rebellious elements of their own party who voted against the bailout have been purged with the recent election. So with no change in the current political situation, the dead heat that Euro buyers were hoping for did not take place and the Euro has not crashed in value as we have seen in the past with these events. During this morning’s trading it remained relatively stable.

This afternoon however, GBP/EUR rates still managed to spike. 

On Wednesday Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank will be giving his monthly speech surrounding the health of the Eurozone economy. There has regularly been significant market movement during this hour long period. It’s common knowledge that he believes a weak Euro is key to their economic growth. It makes exports more competitive and stimulates spending rather than saving.

So most analysts are expecting the Euro to weaken as there are rumours he will announce further Quantitative Easing to make inflation healthier and provide more credit to the economy. This is essentially printing money, and if more is in circulation then the worth of each individual Euro declines.

With Greece swept under the rug, and no other big stumbling blocks on the horizon for the Eurozone, the opportunities presented leading up to Wednesday could be the best rates available for the rest of 2015 for GBP/EUR should Draghi announce further financial intervention.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro requirement to buy over the next few months should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception for Joshua to gain tailored advice on your requirements ahead of the event on Wednesday as well as a free quote on your transfer. If your requirements are not until later in the year current rates can be pegged at no additional cost. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Greek elections due this weekend and how this could influence Sterling vs Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates went in an upwards direction at the end of Friday afternoon’s trading session as the Greek elections come close to concluding.

We should know fairly soon who will lead the Greeks but rather than either the Syriza party or the New Conservative party I think this will lead to them having to form a coalition government.

With the polls to close to call at the moment I think it will be inevitable that a coalition will be formed and this could spook investors holding Euros.

Therefore, I think we could see the single currency weaken against Pound Sterling during the early part of the week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

FED rate hold strengthens EUR (Joshua Privett)

A quiet end to the week sees the Euro benefiting from lost confidence on the US Dollar. Regular readers of this website will remember the close connection between the fortunes of the Dollar and the Euro. As USD/EUR is the most traded currency pair in the world, when strength or weakness emerges in one, the general trend is to have the opposite affect on the other.

The dovish tones presented by Janet Yellen, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of America, when justifying the rate hold rather than the rise, were enough to cause significant loss in USD value as it seems a rate hike in their economy is now pushed back until Spring 2016. This loss of value across the Atlantic then translated into EUR strength.

Rates dipped below 1.36 but have since corrected. This does still reinforce the current negative trend for GBP/EUR rates, and with no data out today to correct this, I strongly encourage anyone with Euros to buy to move sooner rather than later.

Contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask for Joshua for a free quote on your transfer as well as tailored advice on your situation. Quote this article to receive preferential rates of exchange. jjp@currencies.co.uk

When should I buy Euros? (Daniel Johnson)

With a dip in UK Unemployment data and a rise in the average wage we have seen a spike for Sterling. There is little data released for the remainder of the week which I think will cause any significant volatility. There is the Fed’s interest decision this evening at 19.00 but I have a sneaky feeling it may be a non event and won’t have a massive bearing on GBP/EUR.

When to Buy Euros?

If I was buying Euros short term I would be looking to move if GBP/EUR hits 1.3740, I think 1.3750 is the current resistance point. It is important to have realistic ambitions as to what rate you will achieve hanging on for unrealistic rates of exchange on a gut feeling can often cost you.

I do have several large GBP/AUD trades going through in the coming days that potentially I could tag new clients on to and achieve a very competitive rate. Please do get in touch if this is something of interest.

I am currently offering a free rate alert service, just drop a line or e-mail with your currency requirements including your time scale and the levels you are hoping to obtain and I will notify you of  any significant movement.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me on dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

 

GBP/EUR Rates Spike During Wednesday’s Trading (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have spiked aggressively during Wednesday’s trading following a host of key economic data releases this morning. The pair has moved back through 1.37 but whether this spike will continue back to the levels we saw a month ago is unlikely in my opinion.

The reason for today’s improvement is two-fold, with this morning UK unemployment rate coming in better than expected at 5.5%, which immediately gave Sterling a boost. This was intensified following the releases of the latest Eurozone inflation data, which came out worse than expected. Coupled together and it is not surprising that the Pound has gained value against the single currency but we have seen the EUR gain support above 1.37 today, moving the pair back down by approximately half a cent from the high of 1.3761.

Many investors will now be concerned that the EUR recent gains will be eliminated and whilst I can’t see the Pound dipping aggressively again under current market conditions. I do feel it will struggle to break back through 1.40, unless we see the Eurozone economy and situation in Greece deteriorate again over the coming weeks.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Euro strength following positive data (Joshua Privett)

Very strong Industrial Production data for the Eurozone economy. Growing by 0.6% last month alone when only 0.3% was expected has cannoned up forecasts for the year to 1.9% growth instead of 0.6%.

The also bodes well for trade data to be released for the Eurozone tomorrow. High production will translate into higher exports, so short-term confidence in the Euro is now extending into tomorrow and we are on the verge of 1.35 once again after correcting back into 1.36 this morning.

Furthermore, UK inflation data is set to be released tomorrow morning. A regular poor performer, Sterling’s rates during these releases have either remained stable or dropped significantly. GBP/EUR dropped by almost 2 cents in June when the UK went into deflation, and last months minor move back into the green caused almost no movement at all. The 0.1% improvement in July apparently not notable enough to affect the markets, so the forecasted 0.0% for last month will likely have the same effect.

With the recent shift down in oil prices further, I would not be surprised if the UK creeps into deflation once more during August. The drop in GBP/EUR could be similar to July.

The lack of evidence for any rise in GBP/EUR rates means I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros to buy in the short-term should be looking to move sooner rather than later.

Whether this is for a private transaction on an overseas property purchase or a business transaction, contact me by calling 01494 787 478 and asking for Joshua to receive a free quote on your transfer and tailored advice on your situation. I guarantee to beat any quote that has been offered by banks or competing brokerages, as well as my services to help you time the transfer. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Those with Euros to sell, feel free to contact me to discuss how to ride this move in your favour.

Inflation Risks to affect Sterling Euro Forecast (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates tailed off during both Thursday and Friday as the Bank of England minutes put the focus on China.

A huge part of the report mentioned the world’s second largest economy and the rate cut a fortnight ago has pushed back the chances of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the near future.

Although MPC member Ian McCafferty is still in favour of a rate rise for the UK it seems unlikely that the UK will raise rates in Spring 2016 as previously estimated.

On Tuesday the UK releases inflation data which will also be used as a factor in deciding monetary policy.

However, arguably it will be the release of Eurozone inflation data on Wednesday which could cause a big movement for Sterling vs the Euro.

Indeed, with ECB president Mario Draghi last week claiming that he is worried about inflation falling below 0%, next Wednesday could be the real catalyst for short term movement for Sterling vs the Euro as if inflation falls this will put more pressure on the ECB to increase Quantitative Easing.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP/EUR almost at 1.35! (Joshua Privett)

The slide for GBP/EUR exchange rates has continued since the Bank of England’s decision not raise interest rates in the UK yesterday and distinct lack of a positive tone in the minutes they released at the same time.

The lack of any data releases today to divert attention meant markets were being influence be the same interest rate announcement at noon on Thursday.

The release of minutes themselves are what has caused such a stir. China was mentioned 10 times across the 7 pages of the report. Whilst the minutes pointed out that it was ‘too early for conclusions on global developments’, it is common knowledge that the slowdown in China is not a short-term development but something that will plague global growth and distort investment for months to come.

Interest rates are arguably the most important determinant for the value of any particular currency. Originally the UK was expected to be raising rates in Spring 2016. Later comments in the report that ‘risk to global economic activity probably increased’ for the foreseeable future are why the consensus is that rates have been pushed back to the back end of 2016 now. 

The fact that we were meant to be the second economy behind the US to raise interest rates in the Western world was the foundation for Sterling’s recent strength. This revised forecast has hurt the value of the Pound significantly, shown in this continued slide in the past 30 hours.

I strongly suggest that anyone with a Euro requirement contact me over the weekend on jjp@currencies.co.uk for a free quote on your transfer, as well as tailored advice on your given situation. Rates do not move over the weekends, and even though this sustained negative trend may not abate anytime soon, markets never move in a straight line. As such short term micro-economic factors will allow you to take advantage of any slight boosts in your favour before further tumbles. On larger amounts this will be a saving of thousands.

Quote this transfer to receive commercial rates of exchange on your retail transfer.

Sterling Euro Exchange Rates trading at 3 week high (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have remained high and hit a 3 week high yesterday as the Bank of England confirmed an 8-1 split in favour of keeping interest rates on hold.

This came as a pleasant surprise to some which helped to strengthen the Pound and gift it a lift against both the Euro and the US Dollar.

The big release to watch out for next week comes in the form of the Consumer Price Index which is a key measure of inflation and will likely impact upon next month’s Bank of England decision as if inflation is high this puts more pressure on the BoE to think about a rate increase.

However, in my opinion I think inflation could fall as oil prices have been falling over the last few months.

Therefore, I think we could see Sterling fall against the Euro so if you need to buy Euros feel free to get in touch.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money when buying or selling Euros compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

 

Bank of England Minutes show 8-1 in favour of keeping interest rates on hold (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs Euro exchange rates stayed strong today as the Bank of England confirmed 8-1 in favour of keeping UK interest rates on hold.

There was an expectation that 9-0 could occur which if it did would have seen Sterling fall against the Euro but I am not in the least surprised to see the vote of 8-1.

There was even an outside chance of 7-2 and had that happened we could have seen Sterling rocket against the single currency.

However, it does prove that there is still appetite for a rate rise in the UK but I don’t think any change will happen until the Federal Reserve look at changing things in the US.

With German inflation data out in the morning I think we could see Sterling gain against the Euro so if you have to buy Euros keep an eye out on the data first thing. Please click here for further information

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk