Monthly Archives: October 2015

2 month high to buy Euros with Sterling (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates hit their highest level to buy Euros since the third week of August as the Federal Reserve suggested that they are getting closer to raising interest rates in the US.

The reason for the movement in currency rates is that with a potential rate hike for the US this often leads to Dollar strength and Euro weakness and within seconds of the announcement last night GBPEUR rate moved by almost a cent.

US GDP data is due out at 1230m this afternoon and if the data is strong this could lead to even further strength for the Dollar providing even better opportunities to buy Euros with Sterling.

We end the week with Eurozone inflation data tomorrow and with inflation measuring below 0% recently this could encourage the ECB to look at increasing further QE over the next few months leading to Euro weakness.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP/EUR exchange rates dip below 1.38 briefly!

GBP/EUR rates have begun to correct since the two month highs made available recently, and the correction seems to be sharp and likely sustained.

The reason for the volatility is actually events over in the US. The Federal Reserve Bank of America interest rate decision and monetary policy statement will be released into the markets this evening. With USD/EUR being the most traded currency pair in the world, any change in value for one will normally result in the opposite effect for the other – causing the Euro’s value to alter against its other currency partners.

Some very poor data for the US economy this week, stating that US home sales were down almost 12% in a single month, has made it very doubtful that the previously forecasted interest rate hike for October will occur this year at all.

A large portion of the capital which had previously flown into the Dollar from the Euro with expectations of short term gains has now reversed. The Euro is getting a boost from returning investment which is why 1.37 was hit briefly on the markets this morning, and I fully expect this to be broken into once more.

This trend signals the end to US prosperity assisting GBP/EUR exchange rates, which has been on going since February. As such it may be difficult for markets to reach these highs once more in the future. Risk is now squarely at the feet of Euro buyers rather than sellers.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros to buy should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception for Joshua to discuss a strategy on how to buy at the high of the market, and receive a competitive quote on your transfer to maximise your Euro return.

Due to the forecasts that this is a shift to a negative trend on GBP/EUR a popular option for many who have a Euro requirement at the end of this year, or at the start of 2016, is to fix the current rate of exchange and avoid your budget changing with unfavourable market movements. This is known as ‘Forward Buying’ and carries no additional cost, all you have to know is amount of Euros your wish to purchase. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

GBPEUR levels dip below 1.39 on poor UK GDP data

The pound was handed a stark reminder of the problems ahead with the UK’s economic recovery with a very poor UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figure released today. The UK economy is not growing as fast as thought and this news helped the rate to fall from the recent excellent spike we had had for Euro buyers. Mario Draghi’s mere ‘hint’ that he ‘may’ consider an interest rate cut of further QE (Quantitative Easing) in time, have helped present a very good opportunity for Euro buyers.

With no clear direction being established the rest of the week’s news is vital to the future prospects on the market. The likelihood is that the Euro will weaken further longer term if the ECB (European Central Bank) look at launching further rounds of QE. The Pound is however not in a great place with a clear economic slowdown up ahead, if I had to buy Euros I think I would be looking to take advantage of the excellent improvements on the rate since the lows a couple of weeks ago.

If you need to buy or sell Euros making some firm plans on the exchange rate is key to getting the most from your money. For more information on the market and all of your options please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

UK GDP Figures Worse Than Expected (Matthew Vassallo)

The UK economic recovery was hit this morning, following the release of the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. Figures came in worse than expected and in my opinion this is likely to halt Sterling’s momentum in the short-term. The official figure of 2.3% growth was under the anticipated 2.4% and this immediately caused the Pound’s levels to drop against the majority of the major currencies, including the EUR, USD & AUD.

The Pound has benefitted of late from a run of positive UK economic data releases and as mentioned in previous reports, the catalyst for this was better than expected UK Unemployment rate and Retail Sales figures. These boosted the Pound’s value, which in turn was assisted by a weakening EUR due to the on-going uncertainty surrounding the possible extension of their current Quantitative Easing (QE) programme. However, with the ECB refusing to commit to any extension on their current stimulus measures, despite indicating they were willing to do whatever is necessary to stabilize the Eurozone region, and the weak UK GDP figures already discussed, the Pound is likely to find resistance around the current levels and I would be very surprised to see GBP/EUR rates break 1.40 again under current market conditions.

The markets have already come to terms with the realisation that there will be no rate hike in the UK any time soon and this was one of the main factors in driving Sterling’s value up. It is far more likely in my opinion that the best chance the Pound has of recovering is faltering economies elsewhere, that may drag the currency in question down.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Outlook (Daniel Johnson)

Positive retail sales figures for the UK and Mario Draghi indicating he will prolong QE and increase the amount of funds he is willing to pump into the Eurozone has caused GBP/EUR to break 1.39.

If I was buying Euros I would be tempted to move quickly, GDP figures for the UK are due out tomorrow at 9.30am. I expect there could be a slight drop and Sterling could take a hit. Keep an eye out for Germany’s CPI data on Thursday. Germany is the engine room for the Eurozone and any unexpected movements could cause volatility on GBP/EUR.

If we hit 1.40, expect GBP/EUR to hit resistance as the profit taking takes hold. 1.39 is definitely not to be sniffed at.

I have consistent GBP-EUR trades going through  that potentially I could tag new clients on to and achieve a very competitive rate. Please do get in touch if I can be of assistance. I will guarantee to beat any bank or brokerage’s exchange rates.

I am  offering a free rate alert service, just give me a ring or e-mail with your currency requirements including your time scale and the levels you are hoping to obtain and I will notify you of  any significant movement.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would really appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me on dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

 

UK Retail Sales and Eurozone QE gives Sterling a big boost against the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates had a huge lift during yesterday’s trading session as UK Retail Sales saw a huge jump owing to the increased consumer spending during the Rugby World Cup.

This came as a big surprise compared to the expectation and this led to big gains for Sterling vs Euro during the first part of the day.

However, more importantly the ECB press conference held in the afternoon gave away clues that the central bank may open the door to further Quantitative Easing.

ECB president Mario Draghi suggested that he may look at further interest rate cuts and carry on QE past the September 2016 deadline.

Draghi blamed the recent slowdown in China and suggested that it’s too early to fully assess the damage caused by the VW scandal.

The problem for the Eurozone is that if QE is continued then this could see rates for the Pound continue to go in an upwards direction against the single currency creating some excellent opportunities to buy Euros.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

UK Retail Sales Figures Give Sterling a Boost! (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling received a boost during Thursday morning trading, following the release of the latest UK Retail Sales figures. The official figure came in far above expectation at 1.9% and the market reacted immediately with GBP/EUR moving towards 1.38 at today’s high. This move was certainly unexpected but is a timely reminder of how fragile the Eurozone and indeed the single currency remains.

Another reason for today’s slide on the EUR is European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi’s public address, where he mentioned that the ECB were open to all stimulus measures should they require the need to implement them. The current QE programme runs until September 2016 and Draghi confirmed the ECB will extend this if necessary, a move that will be designed to try and bring back some sort market confidence.

Whilst I still do not expect Sterling to break 1.40 under current conditions, today’s developments are likely to keep GBP/EUR rates above 1.35 for the coming days.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

What next for GBP/EUR exchange rates? (Dayle Littlejohn)

The key driver for GBP/EUR exchange rates in the foreseeable future is how the European central bank act in order to combat deflation.

Many economists believe Mario Draghi and the ECB  will up the amount of quantitative easing in order to stimulate the economy. If this occurs I believe GBP/ EUR will push towards the higher 1.30s.

However Draghi in recent times has indicated he has the tools to combat inflation but he wont be making rash decisions for a short term solution.

Therefore every time Draghi refers back to the Q.E programme and talks in a bullish tone, its seems the euro strengthens off the back of it.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Dayle on drl@currencies.co.uk. I would be interested to hear from you and help assist with any currency transfers you might be considering in the future.

GBPEUR rates falling

Following the 4 cent climb over the last week rates are starting their fall back down.  This is in the build-up to the ECB meeting on Thursday which is expected to give us a better idea on the level of QE they expect to increase.  This has come from the VW scandal in the Germany recently which is expected to cause a slow down in the ‘engine room’ of the single currency. An injection of more QE is widely expected to help counter balance this, whether it is at this meeting or the next in December is what is being gambled on.

In either case I expect rates to start falling now in the build up to the event, on the news, whatever that is we are probably going to see either GBPEUR rates climb up a little or fall a lot. So levels now are, in my expectation, the top of the range we expect to see fort the remainder of the week and probably the month.

If you would like a full breakdown of data impacting your situation and how best to time you transfer, feel free to get in contact – hse@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR rates tumble back down from this morning’s 6 week highs (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR exchange rates have been hurt this afternoon from surprisingly dovish views expressed by the Bank of England.

Off the cuff remarks by Bank of England member Ian McCafferty about the existing potential for a rate cut in the economy was received terribly.

Of the 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee he was the only one considering a rate hike in the near future. Though he says that he believes a rate hike will happen first, the fact that a cut was even discussed reduced confidence in any short-term chances for a rate hike in the UK, which in turn caused the Pound to falter.

The suggestion is clear that any further surprises, which are very possible in the current market with slowdowns in China and a decelerating US recovery, could derail the UK’s plans for a rate rise. Sterling has weakened against the Euro as a result.

GBP/EUR has dropped back from 1.367 back to the high 1.35’s.

Anyone with Euros to buy I strongly recommend contacting me as soon as possible to avoid any further backlash from US markets opening and continuing this downward trend. Contact me overnight on jjp@currencies.co.uk for a free quote on your transfer and to discuss a strategy to maximise your return in Euros.

What is happening to Sterling Euro Exchange Rates? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates had a very volatile week following inflation data released in the UK, Eurozone and the US.

UK inflation is now below 0% which is clearly a concern however with oil prices close to historic lows I am not surprised to see the figure this low.

What is more worrying though is that this is only the second time since 1960 that we are in deflation.

However, although the Pound struggled vs the Euro early on in the week it repaired its gains after the release of UK unemployment data which came in better than expected at 5.4%.

This good news has helped Sterling to gain against all major currencies and given the Pound some much needed confidence following the GDP downgrade a fortnight ago.

Eurozone inflation is also struggling to make gains and although the ECB recently suggested that they think inflation will start to improve over the next few months naturally I think there is still room for further QE to take place on the continent.

With the ECB due to meet on Thursday although I don’t expect to see any policy change I do think if there’s any mention of QE on the agenda we could see the single currency weaken towards the end of the week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP/EUR buying rates still below 1.36 (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR rates remain stubbornly subdued below the 1.36 mark as the weeks trading ends. It was breached very briefly, however, rates continued to be pulled back below this mark.

The reason rates journeyed above this level initially was because the inflation figures for the Eurozone were expected to come in very poorly.

Indicative figures were released for the German economy at the start of the month which showed an alarming fall into severely negative figures. As the powerhouse of the European economy, it was expected that their figures would be at least slightly reflected in the overall estimation for the Eurozone. When this wasn’t the case, rates weakened slightly and have since settled below 1.36.

Most are reporting that these better than expected figures were down to a 9.8% increase in car sales last month! This figure came out alongside the inflation report, and this is the most surprising piece of data I’ve come across all year seeing as the Volkswagen scandal was expected to stall the marketplace! However, Italian firms have picked up the slack, with Fiat posting record numbers to compensate.

The appeal and flexibility of the Euro economy is continuing to surprise markets, which is why buying rates continue to be pushed down.

The first few weeks of each month are where most of the volatility is generally seen on the markets as this is where most of the economic data from the previous month is released. Following this there is little else to be seen and, as such, markets tend to follow current trends at the end of this initial period.

This nice boost for Euro confidence today will likely keep buying rates for Euros down as a result. If investors plan for the coming November based on this data, with terrible inflation in the UK economy compared to a surprisingly robust Eurozone, further capital could fly into the Euro during this period and drag further on GBP/EUR rates.

As such I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros to purchase over the next few weeks should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to receive a competitive quote on your transfer and discuss a strategy for you to take advantage of any peaks that catch you eye and you would like to seize. Even if you do not need your Euros until November, these current rates can be pegged to avoid subjecting your transfer to further volatility.

GBPEUR rate SPIKING (Steve Eakins)

Sterling rates have now spiked and are at the top levels seen for nearly 4 weeks. Great news compared to where they were on Tuesday when they fell to the lowest levels seen since February.  Rates are now up by almost 4 cents and giving buyers a good opportunity to buy as it seems increasingly likely that rates have established a negative trend over the last 3 months. Remember they were as high as 1.45 and this week as low as 1.32.

It seems that you have to have a very strong economically based argument to suggest rates will be climbing back towards the 1.40 level. That in turn is why so many have been taking full advantage of this SPIKE today as 1.30 seems a lot more likely compared to 1.40.

Next week we have more China news with their GDP figures, this is expected to either have no impact on GBPEUR levels or result in another fall like we have seen repetitively over the last 6 weeks. (For more information on why china has this impact please get in contact or read my last blogs.)

The next GBPEUR data for the market is next Thursday and Friday meaning the next few trading sessions will be lead by market appiteate for risk. Now these traders have been riding the market up over 3 cents, it seems probably that there will be profit taking resulting in another fall back…

Again more arguments to suggest these current levels are rather attractive.

If you have a counter argument I would love to hear it please email me at hse@currencies.co.uk

Alternatively if you woulds like more information, a break down on costs, live quotations or a summary of the market impacts on your personal situation again get in contact via hse@currencies.co.uk

A volatile day tomorrow for GBP/EUR exchange rate (Dayle Littlejohn)

At 10am tomorrow morning (Friday) the eurozone are set to release their latest Consumer Price Index numbers (Inflation).

Inflation has been a serious worry for the European Central Bank (ECB) over the last 12 months and to combat inflation woes the ECB instigated an aggressive Quantitative Easing programme at the beginning of the year. However the programme I feel is inadequate.

Last months inflation figures (-0.1) disappointed the ECB as the euro entered deflation. Tomorrows figure could have a substantial impact on eurozone future monetary policy.

If the euro continues to fall into deflation Mario Draghi may have no other option than to increase the amount of quantitative easing in order to combat inflation. On the other hand if inflation figures are positive I expect Draghi will have a bullish tone in his next press conference and the euro will benefit from it.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Dayle Littlejohn drl@currencies.co.uk

 

– See more at: http://www.poundsterlingforecast.com/#sthash.rnbMcrf5.dpuf

GBP/EUR Shooting Towards 1.36 (Daniel Johnson)

With little data out of r Sterling today it seems CPI figures from the US have caused quite a stir. With USD/EUR the most traded currency pairing it has caused an impact on GBP/EUR. If I was a  Euro buyer short term I would be seriously tempted to get something done considering the UK has just entered deflation. If you have a tendency to gamble and are looking longer term, wait until Draghi pumps in some more cash for his QE program which will cause further Euro weakness.

I do have several large GBP-EUR trades going through in the coming days that potentially I could tag new clients on to and achieve a very competitive rate. Please do get in touch if this is something of interest. I will guarantee to beat any bank or brokerage’s exchange rates.

I am currently offering a free rate alert service, just drop a line or e-mail with your currency requirements including your time scale and the levels you are hoping to obtain and I will notify you of  any significant movement.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me on dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

UK Unemployment Figures Boost Sterling’s Value (Matthew Vassallo)

UK Unemployment figures were released this morning and with the official rate coming in better than expected at 5.4%, the Pound received a welcome boost following a tough week against the EUR. GBP/EUR levels have spiked by over a cent today with the pair now putting pressure back on 1.35, after we saw it dip toward 1.33 at the low earlier this week.

This has brought some relief to those clients holding Sterling, who feared that the single currencies sudden momentum was going to push rates back towards 1.30. Whilst the Pound would certainly find support around this level in my opinion, I feel the days of 1.40 are now gone. With the Eurozone’s economy starting to stabilize and the uncertainty surrounding the Greek crisis removed for the time being, it is likely the EUR will continue to find support around the current levels and I anticipate GBP/EUR rates to be range-bound in the mid 1.30’s under current market conditions.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchanger rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/ EUR plummets from poor UK inflation data (Dayle Littlejohn)

This morning the UK released their latest Consumer Price Index figures (also known as inflation). The figure had a detrimental impact on the pound and GBP/EUR dropped by 2 cents. Septembers figure was released at -0.1 down from 0.2%. The reasoning for this is falling oil prices and a smaller than usual rise in clothing prices.

This has no doubt sent ripples through the Bank of England and Governor Mark Carney, will have to rethink his further forecasts. With inflation falling I find it hard to believe that interest rates will be hiked until at least the 3rd quarter of next year.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Dayle Littlejohn drl@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBPEUR rates crashing

Sterling value has fallen again over the last 12 hours, falling from central levels of over 1.35 down towards 1.32. We had another bout of poor economic data which has weakened Sterling and Strengthen the Euro (To find out more on the reasons behind this please get in contact.) plus we have had confirmation that UK inflation has fallen below zero being reported at -0.1%  This was a sock to the market and is another argument to point towards the UK interest rate change not happening until later next year.

Moving forward there is yet more concerns for anyone with a GBPEUR transfer to make. We have more economic data from China overnight today which is either going to be have no effect or a negative impact. We have lots of data across Europe this week so I expect a volition week with a wide range of 1.32-1.36 so timing will be key in getting the best price. These are all however forecasts which are subject to change.

Bottom line, if you have a trade to make, make sure you are watching rates this week. Use RATE ALERTS and SPIKE NOTIFICATIONS to achieve the best price and make the most from the money you have.

Contact myself – Steve Eakins – hse@currencies.co.uk for more information

UK Construction Data causes Sterling to take a Knock (Daniel Johnson)

UK construction figures were released today and they have not been this low for two years. We have seen GBP/EUR hit new buoyancy levels between 1.3466 – 1.3518. If you have a Euro requirement it may be time to reevaluate your expectations.  If I was purchasing Euros I would be looking to move anywhere between 1.3550 and 1.36.

I do have several large GBP-EUR trades going through in the coming days that potentially I could tag new clients on to and achieve a very competitive rate. Please do get in touch if this is something of interest. I will guarantee to beat any bank or brokerage’s exchange rates.

I am currently offering a free rate alert service, just drop a line or e-mail with your currency requirements including your time scale and the levels you are hoping to obtain and I will notify you of  any significant movement.

Thank you for reading today’s Blog, I would greatly appreciate any feedback you have and would take pleasure in replying personally. I am more than than happy to assist you with any of your currency requirements. Feel free to e-mail me on dcj@currencies.co.uk or call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson.

GBP/EUR rates set in limbo today (Joshua Privett)

At the end of last week GBP/EUR rates fell sharply into the mid 1.34’s with the alarming announcement that the UK construction sector had contracted by more than 4.3% in a single month, the biggest such fall in two years.

The exaggerated fall in Sterling strength was due to the more long-term implications of this data. Arguably, since the 2007/8 financial crisis, the most important factor for the value of a currency is its timeline to raise interest rates from their historic lows. This form of terrible construction data puts this on the back-burner. Raising rates would cause a sector such as this, which relies so heavily on cheap credit, to completely stall if it is already floundering when interest rates are at 0.5%.

Rates are in limbo today, as the title suggests, as there are no significant data releases until tomorrow with the announcement of UK inflation figures. As such there are correcting up gradually, as markets settle down following the surprise fall in Sterling value on Friday. Rates have already hit 1.35 as I type this.

Inflation is another area with strong influence on our timeline to raise rates. However, this has been the area which has been holding back the UK from suggesting a rate hike for the past 6 months. Data is regularly poor, with the Bank of England not even hitting half of its yearly target, the data will unlikely reverse this recent slide on GBP/EUR. We may even see the slide continue.

Anyone with Euros to sell have had rates move in their favour by 10 cents since July. If you’re inclined to hold on and squeeze out a bit more out of any moves on the market, email me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss your options on how to do with less risk free and to help guarantee the best rates of exchange.

Those with Euros to buy I strongly recommend contacting me on 01494 787 478 and asking the reception for Joshua for a competitive quote on your transfer. Little has changed on the markets over the past month, so there still carries more risk in waiting for rates to rise in your favour.