Monthly Archives: December 2015

Will Sterling fall further against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have fallen by over 7 cents during the month of December as the ECB extended QE and the US Federal Reserve decided to finally raise interest rates.

Sterling has fallen across the board against all major currencies and I think we could be in for further falls as we go into the new year.

Eurozone inflation is released early next week and one of the main reasons for the extension of QE was to combat falling inflation.

Therefore, if the data shows signs of improvement we could see the Euro strengthen vs Sterling creating some excellent opportunities to sell Euros into Sterling.

There is increasing pressure on Sterling with fears of a Brexit and the lack of an interest rate rise until earliest 2016 which is another reason why I think Sterling will fall against the Euro in January.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

The pound makes back losses from yesterdays trading day (Dayle Littlejohn)

This morning the UK released their latest revised GDP figures. Year on Year dropped by 0.2% to 2.1% and the month on month figure dropped by 0.1% to 0.4%. You would have thought sterling would therefore lose further ground against the euro, however this never occurred.

Throughout today’s trading period the pound has made back over a cent and a half against the euro, which was lost throughout yesterdays trading period. Shifts in the market are due to thin trading levels throughout the festive  period.

If you have an upcoming currency transfer, I would recommend emailing me your individual requirement (buying a property abroad, paying a company invoice) and I will personally respond to you with my forecast and the buying process. drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn. Alternatively call 0044 1494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

 

 

Sterling Rallys against the Euro in Early Trading (Daniel Johnson)

Sterling has rallied this morning back up to nearly 1.36 after heavy losses against the Euro yesterday. UK Public Sector Net Borrowing rose by nearly double to £13.557bn, we have also had poor retail sales figures proving that the Brits are not as keen on Black Friday as our US counterparts.

I feel there is the potential for the pound to come under pressure next year. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) has recently stated that British families are running at a £40bn deficit, spending significantly more than they are earning. Chancellor George Osbourne is relying on the British Public to go deeper into debt in order to hit growth targets. This coupled with worryingly low inflation currently sat at 0.1% (bordering on deflation for the last three months) does not bode well for the Pound. It seems we are more likely destined for an economic collapse more than a sustained recovery.

If you have a Sterling requirement I would be looking to move sooner rather than later based on these factors.

During the festive period it is particularly tricky to predict market movement, trade volume is significantly reduced and as such the market swings are far more aggressive as trading thins. This can mean some very opportune moments can present themselves but moving quickly is essential. Keeping in touch with your broker can insure you maximise your trade.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist, I would strongly suggest getting in touch with me if you are looking to trade. If you would like to get in touch please call on 01494 787478 and ask for Daniel Johnson or  e-mail me on dcj@currencies.co.uk .I can guarantee to beat any competitors rates. I will be more than happy to provide a free quote, I consistently save clients thousands on their transfers. Thank you for reading my blog I really appreciate it and I look forward to hearing from you.

Sterling to Euro buying rates crash as UK debt soars (Joshua Privett)

Sterling has lost almost two cents against the Euro throughout today’s trading with GBP/EUR now knocking on the door of 1.34.

The reason for the sudden fall is a confluence of factors, and most centred around UK economic debt. Yesterday it was confirmed that UK private debt exceeded £40bn – only a few years ago we were in a surplus of £70bn.

Such a sudden change in spending patterns is understandably concerning for markets, particularly with the financial crisis still the the background of the minds of investors.

Today this discussion on debt was compounded the the public sector themselves having borrowed twice as much in November as they had in October, now totalling in excess of £13bn.

In December currency markets tend to see more exaggerated movements than expected. The currency traders at high street banks who move the 100’s of millions in currency daily who cause the greatest effects on currency exchange rates have started to dial down their activity ahead of the Christmas period. As such you see more exaggerated spikes rather than balanced and aggregated movements when all market participants are fully active.

All these factors have come together to exaggerate the recent fall for GBP/EUR rates of exchange ahead of the holiday period. 

UK GDP figures are set to be released tomorrow which could accelerate Sterling’s fall on the markets.

In November these same figures came in disappointingly low due to poor performance in the manufacturing and construction sectors. This can mainly be attributed to poor weather and shorter daylight time for construction. With no change in that setting it would not be a stretch to expect similar results from last month where the Pound lost more than a Cent against the Euro in an afternoon’s trading.

I strongly recommend that anyone with plans to buy Euros over the coming months should contact me overnight on jjp@currencies.co.uk whilst the markets are inactive to receive a competitive quote on your transfer. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and furthermore these current levels can be pegged for more than 6 months if need be to avoid any further harmful movements from making your purchase more expensive.

Euro sellers have been gifted rates this afternoon, I suggest contact me as well so that I can explain how to make sure you sell your Euros at the high of the market within the time period you have to complete your transfer. 01494 787 478

 

Will GBPEUR keep falling?

Will the pound to Euro keep falling? The expectation is for the pound to Euro rate to fall further in the New Year with sentiment towards the UK declining even further. Uncertainty relating to the in or out referendum on the EU will I am sure provide investors with further worries over the UK which will more than likely lead to the pound losing yet more value. The interest rate rise now in the United States has seen large shifts of funds from the United Kingdom to the United States which has caused the pound to weaken against all currencies including the Euro.

If you are a Euro buyer with sterling I would suggest moving sooner rather than later to avoid uncertainty and risk of the rates falling and your transfer becoming more expensive than planned. If you are selling Euros it might be that this rate has further to fall in the coming weeks and we might yet see some improvements which make your transfer less costly.

If  you are buying or selling sterling for Euros and there is anything I can help with please get in touch by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk and explaining your position and how we might be able to help.

Euro Pound Sterling Forecast for the Week ahead (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have been trading in the 1.37 levels for most of the week as there has been little economic data to impact the currency markets.

Even with the US interest rate hike on Wednesday evening this did little to affect Sterling exchange rates as it was seemingly fully priced in.

Next week sees the release of two UK data announcements on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The first one out is Public Sector Net Borrowing which has in recent months been relatively positive so this could see rates to buy Euros get better.

Following that we see the release of revised UK GDP figures and again the third quarter was good for the UK economy so if you need to buy Euros you could be in for an early Christmas present.

If you need to make a currency transfer and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

What is the Future for GBP/EUR? (Daniel Johnson)

There are no significant UK data releases for the rest of 2015 so I would expect GBP/EUR to remain around the 1.37 mark until January. The head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi has recently stated he will not be increasing the Quantitative Easing program’s monthly increments. Which has strengthened the Euro. There is an outside chance this could happen in the second quarter however if there is no improvement in inflation, in which case GBP/EUR could breach 1.40.

If this doesn’t occur and you are a Euro buyer it may be wise to move sooner rather than later UK inflation levels currently sit at 0.1% and the target is 2%. This is putting a halt on a chance of a rate hike. Mark Carney the Head of the Bank of England has also stated that the high value of Sterling is hindering UK exports and he is willing weaken the Pound.

If you would like me to assist with your Currency requirements feel free  to call me on 01494 787478 or  e-mail me on dcj@currencies.co.uk.  I can guaranty to beat any other brokerages rates. Thank you for reading my blog it is appreciated.

 

Sterling suprisingly loses ground against the Euro (Dayle Littlejohn)

With the Federal Reserve raising Interest rates by 0.25% yesterday evening, the first rate hike in over 10 years, many analysts were under the impression we would see a mass sell off of Euros to buy USD for profit taking purposes and therefore GBPEUR would rise. However this never materialized.

This morning positive UK retail sales figures saved GBPEUR exchange rates as the trend looked like sterling was going to lose ground against the Euro. Tomorrow there are no data releases to note, therefore I expect GBPEUR to finish the week in the 1.37s.

If you have an upcoming currency transfer  feel free to email me with your individual requirements (buying a property abroad, paying a company invoice) and I will personally respond to you with a forecast and the buying process. drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn. Alternatively call 0044 1494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

IF YOU WOULD SIMPLY LIKE A COMPARISON AGAINST YOUR CURRENT PROVIDER FEEL FREE TO EMAIL ME WITH THE EXACT FIGURES!! THIS TAKES 30 SECONDS AND COULD SAVE YOU THOUSANDS!! 

 

GBP/EUR rates see net gain following US interest rate hike (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR exchange rates were all over the shot yesterday both before and after the 19:00 deadline for the US FED to release their interest rate decision. This ended up as the first time that a major Western economy has raised rates since the financial crisis, which explains why the ripples throughout the currency markets saw movements similar to that of a YO-YO. 

Before the decision rates moved as high at 1.385 before tumbling down to the low 1.36’s and then sharply recovered back up to the mid-high 1.37’s where we find ourselves as I sit down to write. But markets are still volatile, and GBP/EUR has been dipping since this morning.

The reason why events in the US affect GBP/EUR exchange rates so visibly is mainly because of the relationship between the US Dollar and the Euro, The USD/EUR is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, so the rule of thumb in the currency markets is that when one strengthens, you tend to get the opposite effect in the other.

In this case it didn’t quite materialise. Whilst the FED did raise rates the accompanying statement about future policy suggested this would be a one-off, rather than the start of four consecutive gradual hikes in a year which the FED have previously done at the start of a rate hike cycle.

The result was a balanced reaction on the markets which left the GBP/EUR rates in a similar position to what was on offer yesterday. But this already visible downward trend this morning suggests this may be changing as the morning progresses.

This is likely due to UK retail sales figures which are set to be released this morning. This shows retail activity for November, which traditionally is one of the worst performing points of the year. I am guilty of leaving my Christmas shopping to December, and it seems markets expect the majority of the UK population to have done the same, with sales expected to come in drastically below October’s figures.

This should reduce confidence in the Pound as a result which is already being seen on the markets this morning for GBP/EUR rates.

Anyone with a GBP/EUR requirement, particular those who were hoping for a boost from the FED rate decision, should no be looking to move sooner rather than later on their Euro purchase.

Explicit hints about a rate hike in the US have occurred since October, which is why rates of exchange moved up from the lows of 1.32/3 to where we are now. I would be looking to secure these rates before the aftermath of the FED’s momentous decision no longer keeps the value of the Euro down.

I strongly recommend contacting me on 01494 787 478 and asking the reception for Joshua to discuss a strategy for your upcoming Euro purchase to avoid any harmful movements in your favour. These current gains since October for you can be pegged until you require your Euros to avoid harmful movements forcing you to bite the bullet at a later date. jjp@currencies.co.uk

Euro sellers can do the same, and I can explain the best way to ride positive movements in your favour to their peak within the time period you have to complete your transfer.

 

Will the US Rate Decision Influence my GBP/EUR Trade? (Daniel Johnson)

Tonight we will see the Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Decision. The general consensus is that there will a rate hike by 0.25%. It is also predicted that the Head of the FED Janet Yellen will have a dovish tone with regards to raising the rates higher further down the road when she makes her statement after the decision. The Decision will be sure to cause GBP/EUR volatility. I have listed some possible outcomes below.

0.25% Hike – This should cause Euro weakness, although not substantial, I wouldn’t expect GBP/EUR to challenge 1.40.

0.50% Hike –  Expect the Euro to take a hammering and present an excellent opportunity for Euro buyers.

No Movement in rate – Expect USD to drop against all major currency pairings and the Euro to strengthen.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. I am in a position where I can guarantee to beat any competitors rates. If you would like to get in touch for a quote please do not hesitate to get in touch by calling 01494 787478 or feel free to e-mail me on dcj@currencies.co.uk .

 

 

Sterling Euro Exchange Rates and the Impact on Tonight’s Fed Decision (Tom Holian)

There are a number of different data releases due out this morning which will impact upon the rate to buy or sell Euros including UK unemployment data at 930am and Eurozone inflation at 10am.

However, arguably the biggest data release will come in the form of tonight’s US Federal Reserve decision.

The chances of a US rate hike are currently poised at 78% and I think we will definitely see a rate hike as the Fed have confirmed on multiple occasions that a rate hike is data dependent.

The US economy has performed extremely well during the course of this year and a rate hike tonight will therefore be justified.

The impact this is likely to have on Sterling Euro exchange rates is for Euro weakness creating some good opportunities to buy Euros tomorrow.

Typically a rate rise for the US would lead to Dollar strength and Euro weakness and we could see exchange rates for Sterling vs Euro rise towards 1.40.

However, the press conference immediately after the announcement tonight could cause a huge amount of volatility if they suggest this could be the start of rate hiking cycle.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

What next for the Euro?

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is likely to come under some real pressure in the future as Inflation becomes a problem yet again. Today markets are celebrating the UK has come out of its deflationary phase. Yet the falling Oil prices suggest to me that the problems for sterling are far from over. Inflation is very likely to drop in the future which will push back further any interest rate hike expectations leveled at the pound and the UK. For this reason I believe that if you need to buy or sell the pound or Euro your transfer time is critical and making careful plans is very sensible. Understanding the markets and all of your options in advance will be key to achieving the most for your money. The gamble is to do nothing!

For a full overview of your position and for assistance in achieving the very most for your money please contact me Jonathan using jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Rates Drop Following Poor UK Inflation Data (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have dipped during Tuesday’s trading following the release of UK inflation data. The figures came out worse than expected and this caused further losses for Sterling, continuing yesterday’s downturn.

GBP/EUR rates dropped below 1.37 earlier today, before a slight recovery for the Pound. It may well be that the markets started to factor in today’s negative data during yesterday’s trading, which is why we saw the Pound lose value initially. Whilst I dod feel the Pound will find support above 1.35, I don’t think we will see a recovery back to 1,40 before the turn of the year. The EUR has benefited from a run of inconsistent UK data and some bullish statements from European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi.

Looking ahead and we have some key data releases this week, with UK unemployment figures released tomorrow, along with Retail Sales figures on Thursday, both of which are key data releases. However, it is tomorrow’s US FED interest rate decision which is likely to dominate headlines and if they do raise interest rates as widely anticipated we are likely to see additional volatility on all major currency pairs.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR rates dipping ahead of tomorrow’s UK inflation figures (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR slid heavily on the first day of trading this week ahead of inflation data to be published by the UK economy tomorrow morning.

The UK has been experiencing the worst inflation levels since records began for the past four monhts, which is the main reason why in November the Bank of England admitted that this wouldn’t be changing anytime soon. This is why an interest rate hike in the UK has been delayed until at least 2017.

Tomorrow inflation is actually set to get even worse, which is why Sterling’s value was already sliding today ahead of the data release.

Drops in oil price, as well as Christmas sales will show further falls in prices across the UK which may solidify an already poor economic picture to global markets that Britain simply isn’t spending enough which is why prices arent rising.

While this is good for consumers, there is less incentive to spend if prices continue to fall, which means markets are worried of a potential stall in the UK economic engine, and Pound weakness follows.

This is why GBP/EUR has lost one and a half Cents in a days trading, and confirmation of a fifth month in a row of negative inflation could see similar losses on buying rates in the morning.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a GBP/EUR buying requirement in the near future should contact me overnight on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer and ensure you maximise your Euro return. 

Even if your requirement isnt for a few weeks, these currently favourable buying rates can be fixed to avoid harmful movements tomorrow from making your currency purechase more expensive. 01494 787 478

 

The impact of the Fed raising Interest Rates for Sterling exchange rates (Tom Holian)

It is a big week coming up for anyone looking to buy Euros or sell Euros as the US Federal Reserve will finally announce whether or not they will raise interest rates on Wednesday evening.

The Fed have already stated on a number of occasions that a rate hike is data dependent and with unemployment figures confirming levels of 5% and a revision upwards of last month’s new jobs data this will put more pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates next week.

I think it is almost a certainty that the central bank will raise interest rates and typically this should lead to Dollar strength and Euro weakness creating some excellent opportunities to buy Euros with Sterling towards the latter part of the week.

Prior to this we have Tuesday’s UK inflation data which could see a fall owing to the big drop in oil prices recently so I think we could see a brief fall for Sterling exchange rates during Tuesday’s trading session.

Therefore, if you need to sell Euros it may be worth waiting for the release and if you need to buy Euros looking at exchanging towards the end of the week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

How will GBPEUR react next week?

The pound to Euro rate has really dipped in the last two weeks as the ECB fails to meet expectations on their Quantitative Easing program. There remains a very strong likelihood the rate will fall further although next week is the perhaps even more important Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting. The Euro has weakened on the prospect of further QE but what we actually saw was nowhere near as much as expected. Next week the US Interest Rate decision could also be a disappointment but we will need to wait and see just how the markets react. What we do is that the decision easily has the potential to be as volatile as the ECB decision last week so anyone who need to buy or sell Euros should take stock.

For more information on the latest news please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR largely flat following uneventful UK interest rate decision (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR rates of exchange showed marginal gains today, with the most significant day on the UK’s monthly economic calendar producing no surprises whatsoever.

Today was the Bank of England’s interest rate decision for the UK economy. Recently Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, stated that the current record-low inflation levels in the UK economy would likely keep a hike off the table until 2017 at the earliest.

While no rate hike was expected, the Pound’s value does change based on the vote split between the 9 members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee in regards to a rate rise. With Carney’s recent comments, it was thought that all 9 would vote against a hike, and this would cause Sterling’s value to spiral downwards in value.

Instead, the vote split remained at 8-1 against any hike in rates, and the avoidance of a complete whitewash of members voting to keep rates on hold is why we’ve seen GBP/EUR rates move slightly higher today.

However, Carney is still set to do his speech this afternoon, and the last time he spoke about the currency state of the British recovery, Sterling fell by two cents against the Euro.

Later this afternoon these current GBP/EUR rates of exchange could prove to be a gift to buyers should similar falls occur.

I strongly recommend that anyone with Euros to buy in the short-term should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception here for Joshua to receive a competitive quote on your transfer. Quote this article to receive commercial rates on your exchange – I can also discuss a strategy with you in order to maximise your Euro return if your transfer isn’t until the beginning of 2016. jjp@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision and Sterling Euro Rates Today (Tom Holian)

The Bank of England are due to meet later on today to announce this month’s interest rate decision.

The expectation is for no change as BoE governor Mark Carney has stated only a few weeks ago that UK interest rates will not be raised during 2016.

My predictions are for 8-1 vote which was the same as last month but the minutes released today as well as the accompanying statement could see Carney talk down the strength of the Pound.

Indeed, with UK manufacturing data already coming out negatively this week I think Carney could highlight the problems currently being experienced by the British economy and therefore wee could see a fall in the value of Sterling exchange rates providing some better opportunities to sell Euros into Sterling later on this afternoon.

With the next big decision this month due to be made by the US Federal Reserve on December 16th we could see a huge amount of volatility during the next week for Pound Euro and Dollar.

With the festive bread only a fortnight away we have already noticed thinner trading volumes which can also cause erratic movement for exchange rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP/EUR Rates Hit 1.38 Ahead of BoE Interest Rate Decision (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have remained fairly flat during Wednesday’s trading, with little data of note for either the UK or the Eurozone. The Pound has hit 1.3850 at today’s high but dropped back towards 1.38 by close of European trading. GBP/EUR rates have remained as volatile as ever over the past couple of weeks, with both the Pound and the EUR threating to make sustained inroads, only to see their gains eliminated almost as quickly as they came about.

What we do know is that the EUR has found support around 1.40 and with some poor UK data recently, in particular the latest Manufacturing figures, this trend could continue. Similarly the EUR did fight its way back under 1.35 for a short-time but with market confidence in the Eurozone remaining fickle it didn’t take long for Sterling to recover back to the current levels.

All eyes will turn to tomorrow with a host of key UK economic data releases. We have the latest Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision and monetary policy statements, along with the central banks latest minutes. This data set will give us a key insight into their thinking and is likely to be used as a barometer by the markets, in terms of where the markets will move next.

Personally I am off the opinion that despite the recent dip GBP remains at a very attractive level. I’m convinced that as we move into 2016, the current Quantitative Easing (QE) measures in the Eurozone will start to show positive results and unless we see another catastrophic scenario arise like in Greece this year, then the EUR is likely to find some much needed support, which would be far more sustainable than it is now.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on mtv@currencies.co.uk

UK Interest Rate Decision in the spotlight (Dayle Littlejohn)

Tomorrow is the latest UK Interest Rate Decision and I predict we will see a 8-1 vote once again and there will be limted reaction from the market. However its Mark Carney’s press conference after the decision that could have a major impact on GBPEUR exchange rates.

Last month Mark Carney had a very dovish tone and we saw Sterling lose ground against all of the major currencies. Carney stated the UK would not be raising interst rates until 2017 which sent ripples through the market. I wouldn’t be surprised if Carney continues where he left off and the Pound loses further ground against the Euro tomorrow.

Going forward I do not believe we will see GBPEUR hit the heights we saw last week. Therefore if I were buying Euros before the New Year, I would look to trade on the back of a spike from economic data. If you would like to know the upcoming economic data releases feel free to email me directly drl@currencies.co.uk or alternatively call into the office 01494 787 478 and ask for Dayle Littlejohn.