Monthly Archives: March 2016

Will the Pound to Euro rate rise above 1.30 again?

GBPEUR has been very stubborn in the last few weeks struggling to rise higher and when it does it soon drops back down! The worry now is that clients buying Euros who have so stubbornly held out for 1.30 now risk losing even 1.26 and 1.28 as rates slip even further. The reality is the fears and worry over the Referendum have yet to fully manifest themselves. Expectations for GBPEUR to magically rise above the previous better levels are in my opinion misplaced, the stronger likelihood is that the rates will drop back lower and possibly break new lower levels as the markets digest worse news.

If you need to buy or sell Euros in the coming weeks and months making some plans in advance is a very sensible idea to avoid the great uncertainty over the EU Referendum and the expectations and effects this will put on both the pound and the Euro. If you need to run through any trades or wish to get an overview of the foreign exchange market and all of your options then please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Will Sterling Euro exchange rates improve before the EU Referendum? (Tom Holian)

During the last few days Sterling Euro rates have fallen to their lowest level since November 2014 as fears of a Brexit continue to gather pace.

Recent opinion polls have shown the vote has been getting closer and whilst the uncertainty continues this is likely to weigh heavily on Sterling exchange rates as it means global investors are selling Sterling in favour of other currencies.

If we look back to what happened during the Scottish referendum and last year’s general election we saw huge negative movements for GBPEUR rates in the run up to both events and I think this will be the case during the next 3 months in the run up to the EU referendum.

With Iain Duncan-Smith having resigned earlier this week this has also caused Sterling to fall against the Euro as political uncertainty is never good for the currency involved, in this case Sterling.

On Wednesday next week German inflation data is published and as the Eurozone’s leading economy if the data is better than expected this could cause Euro strength as it will provide further support for the ECB’s recent decision to cut interest rates and increase Quantitative Easing.

If you’re buying a property in Europe during the next 3 months you may wish to consider buying a Forward Contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

Buying forward means you will eliminate the risk of the market falling even further against you.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Will the pound to Euro rate recover back to 1.30?

The pound to Euro rate will be likely to recover at some point but I think to expect rates over 1.30 could be a bit too far! Expectations surrounding sterling are firmly based on the political uncertainty around the UK and the Referendum. I would predict the pound to Euro exchange rate will rise above 1.30 in the future but it wouldn’t be until after the EU Referendum and would depend largely on a ‘Remain’ vote by the UK. If there is a leave vote I expect the pound Euro rate to dip into the low 1.20’s…

Next month  is a small window of opportunity for Euro buyers as we see the meeting of the Troika to discuss the restructuring of Greek debt. The outlook is not looking good for Greece and it is of course difficult to explain exactly what we will see but there appears a strong likelihood that there will be further pressure on the Greeks. Whilst some parties are very keen to see the Greek people’s lives made easier with less debt, there are other counter arguments suggesting the Greeks need to be more responsible.

Whatever your position it would seem there is a strong chance that the pound to euro rate will slip further soon because of worry over the Referendum. Understanding all of your options in advance is an easy way to avoid the risk of unexpected losses. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Reasons for GBPEUR movement

Buying euros is frankly becoming more expensive and this trend is widely expected to continue going forward. You really need to have a strong argument to wait at the moment and any positive movement should be seen as opportunity rather than a change in trend.

If you want to register for such a movement please do so by emailing hse@currencies.co.uk with your situation and contact details to be informed.

Reasons why GBPEUR rates are falling:

  • Terror attack has impacted stocks of holiday and travel companies – most of which are listed on the FTSE resulting in Sterling weakness
  • Inflation in the UK is falling weakening the Pound
  • Brexit concerns are causing a dry up of both domestic and international investment in the UK economy – the economy is expected to show a contraction and therefore Sterling weakness
  • The Europeans are pro-actively trying to stimulate growth in their economy through QE – this investment means their stocks will climb more than most – further interest from investors resulting in high demand and therefore euro price

Reasons why the buying the euro could get better:

  • Maybe the UK economy surprises us and shows signs of improving – unlikely however
  • The European crises both economically and political causes a slow down and the euro falls out of favour.

Again you need to have a really good reason to want to wait to buy euros – you are against the majority at the moment.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro, US Dollar, or Australian Dollar buying requirement contact me on hse@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for you transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

Sterling Drops Again as Brexit Fears Resurface After Brussels Attacks

The Pound was the biggest loser within currency markets yesterday, with the terrorist attacks in Brussels and poor inflation data taking most of the blame for Sterling’s slide.

UK consumer prices advanced at 0.3% year on year for the month of February, this was the same figure for January but still 0.1% below analysts’ expectations which has undermined market sentiment towards Sterling’s value.

I think yesterday’s attacks in Brussels have also weighed on GBP as support for a ‘Brexit’ could well be boosted after an attack like this, with migration and free movement within the EU again dominating news headlines, and supporters of the ‘leave’ camp building a case for leaving the EU as attacks like this become a regular occurrence.

The Euro gained almost a percentage point against the Pound yesterday as ‘Brexit’ fears gained off the back the attacks, additionally the most recent ZEW Survey (a measure of institutional investor sentiment) figures came out better than expected which boosted sentiment towards the Eurozone economy.

Thursday sees a number of UK Retail Sales figures released along with the Targeted LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) figure from the Eurozone. The Targeted LTRO figure is scheduled for release at 10.15 am and I’m expecting this to be the most important economic release for GBPEUR this week.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving both GBP and EUR it may well be worth your time getting in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Terrorist Attacks in Brussels Create Uncertainty for GBP/EUR

This mornings terror attacks in Brussels have created further uncertainty for GBP/EUR.  There is the question as to whether more may be on the way, in which case the market could become volatile. Which way the market moves will depend on where the attacks take place.

The EU Referendum is still the key factor in any GBP – EUR trade, there is a strong possibility of an exit and if this is the case the pound could  well plummet in value. HSBC have predicted if the UK were to leave the EU we can expect parity on GBP/EUR exchange rates.

Many of our clients are taking advantage of forward contracts to protect against such a fall. A Forward is essentially buy now pay later, which requires a 10% deposit. It is definitely worth considering if you have  a Euro requirement. If you have currency needs please feel free to get in touch, I will be able to make you a significant saving compared to your bank and I will be happy to provide a free quote. I can be contacted on (0044) (0)1494 787478 and ask for Daniel Johnson or e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.

Busy Day of Releases Tomorrow Could See Sterling Highs (Ben Fletcher)

Sterling has had a fairly slow start to the week with losing half a cent in the early trading hours of the day. I believe that after the resignation of Iain Duncan-Smith there have been some doubts over the current togetherness of the Conservative party.

In the current climate regarding the Brexit there is a certain need for Cameron to get his party in order before his efforts move to keep Britain in the EU. The last thing David Cameron needs is an integrity question arising after George Osbourne’s budget has created national debate.

Tomorrow the Consumer Price Index is released for the UK which essentially is the key indicator to measure inflation. If this release comes in higher than predicted there could be a small rally for Sterling. Significantly there will also be releases from France, Germany and the Eurozone in general.Large amounts of data releases can often cause wide swings so if you are looking to complete a trade it would be worth getting in touch to discuss the details most significant to your needs.

I am reachable at the following address to provide any information you might require brf@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Tomorrow a final chance for Euro buyers to exchange closer to 1.30 than 1.20? (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR rates enjoyed a rollercoaster of a week on the currency exchange markets. Gains were finally recorded on Thursday and Friday, but there was still a net loss on the currency markets between Monday and Friday.

The key event governing buying Euro rates was the Bank of England interest rate decision and subsequent press conference on Thursday.

Whilst all members of the Bank of England still voted to unanimously keep interest rates on hold, the press conference was where this surprise rally for Sterling against the Euro found its roots.

Recently there has been increased chatter among global central banks concerning the potential to introduce negative interest rates in order to get populations spending and spur economic growth. With George Osborne slashing growth forecasts for the UK once more during Wednesday’s budget, the Pound started to weaken with markets worried that Thursday’s press conference may hear Bank of England members discussing the potential for interest rate cuts in an official capacity.

Yet Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, reassured investors that is was still more likely than not that interest rates will rise rather than fall in the next two years.

This solidified Sterling’s foundations, but I must stress this news was not positive, simply less negative than what was expected. Hence the still net loss of a full Cent on GBP/EUR exchange rates between Monday and Friday.

On Tuesday, further negative news is expected to see a negative trend re-emerge on buying Euro rates, which financial markets have accepted as a likely common feature until June.

This is inflation data for the UK economy, which has become a regular culprit for Sterling weakness since levels fell to their lowest since records began last year.

Thus Monday, with not much data to be recorded, may show some further improvements in the first half of the day.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro return.

There are a few options open to you to make sure opportunities which emerge on Monday are seized rather than missed, and I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere.

Euro sellers can do the same, and I can explain how best to ride the expected gains in your favour to their peak in the time period you have to complete your transfer.

Sterling expected to rise against the Euro next week (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates ended the week on a high after hitting their lowest level to buy Euros since November 2014 following the release of the Budget Statement.

On Thursday however all the losses were reversed when the Bank of England surprisingly announced that rather than cutting interest rates in the future the next move would more than likely to for a rate hike.

With the US Federal Reserve keeping interest rates on hold on Wednesday evening and the ECB cutting rates to 0% last week global investors have relished this news and one of the reasons for such Sterling strength against both the Dollar and Euro during the end of the week.

UK inflation data is published on Tuesday morning and if better than the 0.3% expected this could see further Sterling strength against the single currency as it would provide further support that the Bank of England could be right in that interest rates could be increased.

The main reason for the ECB cutting interest rates and launching further Quantitative Easing this month is in an attempt to combat falling inflation as this also hampers growth.

On Thursday the UK releases Retail Sales data and I think this could be better than expected and I think we could get close to reaching the 1.30 levels again towards the end of the week.

Good news if you’re buying Euros.

However, over the next three months the issue and uncertainty of a possible Brexit is likely to weigh heavily on Sterling Euro exchange rates so although I think we could see some gains in the short term we could see Sterling struggle in the months ahead.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

BoE Keep UK Interest Rates on Hold (Matthew Vassallo)

The Bank of England (BoE) have kept interest rates on hold at 0.5%, meaning we have now seen the rate held at its current level for 7 years.

The Pound had come under increasing pressure during the early part of the trading week but we’ve seen a recovery today, following the latest Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision and subsequent monetary policy statement. Despite rates being kept on hold as mentioned we saw the Pound gain support following the BoE minutes, which indicated that we were not likely to see a rate cut anytime soon as some investors had anticipated. This has boosted investor confidence but despite this improvement, I do not expect to see a sustainable rise for Sterling.

The Pound is likely to be handicapped for the foreseeable future due to the current negative market perception surrounding the UK economy. Yesterday’s budget was not viewed in a particularly positive light and with the EU referendum in June likely to dominate headlines, the Pound is unlikely to break back through 1.30 in my opinion, at least until there is some clarity on what the likely outcome of the vote is going to be.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR rates at 18 month low

Sterling exchange rates have continued their free fall this week. Both the UK BUDGET and the US news has resulted in rates currently sitting at the worst levels seen for 18 month!

The Budget saw the growth forecasts be contracted for the next five years while highlighting the concerns about the government achieving their own targets of not borrowing more money at the end of the government. Both of these weakened the Pound against a basket of currencies.

The US FED update yesterday confirmed the expectations that the US would be raising interest rates again this year however towards the end of the year – further away than many expected.  This resulted in money flying out of the USD and into the EURO making it more expensive still to buy.

Moving forward we have had the UK interest rate decision today which was a none event with no real movement on the market – this is probably due to the BREXIT impacting growth forecasts.

Further afield don’t forget about the BREXIT, I know lots of people are talking about it, especially in our market and you may be thinking that this is still 100 days away, why is it important? Two reasons; firstly the uncertainty will have already started to impact both domestic and global investments resulting in the economy catching a cold impacting Sterling’s value. Secondly the decisions as to who gets to spend the £7 million on the campaigns gets decided in the next two weeks.  The spending and therefore impacts will really start to heat up at the start of next month.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying requirement should contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team for Steve in order to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your Euro return. Alternatively email myself at hse@currencies.co.uk if you would like such information.

Chancellor George Osbourne’s Budget fails to provide ignition spark to GBP/EUR rate! (Jonathan Worrall)

GBP/EUR rates have been on a downslide so far this week and today provided much of the same, albeit in a up-and-down fashion. The exchange rate reached a two week low today for those wishing to buy Euros with Sterling, dropping to below 1.27. You may be thinking that this is not what you want to see if you have Euros to buy, but it is worth considering that it is still higher than what we were experiencing a few years ago, and until the UK EU referendum is over it is difficult to see the rate climbing up much.

If you have Euros to buy please get in touch with me at jsw@currencies.co.uk and we can go through in detail your requirements and exactly how we can help you here at our brokerage. If you have Euros to sell then now is the time to do so or to start putting things in place to do so imminently. 

Chancellor George Osbourne released his latest Budget today with a few surprises, yet it was the overall tone towards future growth prospects that dominated. The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast for 2016 has been cut from 2.4% to 2.0% to reflect global risks. I feel this combined with the fact that the Government will miss their debt cutting target contributed to the continued slide in the value of Sterling this afternoon. With not many positives being posted by the Chancellor investors are not willing to put the money into the Pound, especially with the looming potential ‘Brexit’.

If you would like to find out more about how economic and political events such as these can affect your currency transaction then please do not hesitate to contact me at jsw@currencies.co.uk and I will personally respond to you. We take great pride in our service to clients and are regularly able to provide better rates of exchange than your bank or other brokerages. Jonathan Worrall

GBPEUR Rates remain under pressure!

Pound to Euro rates are still really struggling at present with investors keenly awaiting decisions on Bank of England Interest Rates tomorrow and of course the Federal Reserve in the US tonight. Today’s budget has done little on the markets, this is often the case where the budget is concerned as many of the stories are leaked early. It is fair to say the rates have not risen which is perhaps attributable to the fact this news is essentially underscoring what we already know, ie the pound is not a currency investors really want to be holding at the moment!

This is of course explained by the EU referendum in 3 months time, investors do not want to be holding a currency which is highly likely to lose value in the future. I am personally predicting a’Remain’ vote but we will need to factor in the possibility of the ‘Lave’ vote succeeding, this is of course what the markets have been doing.

The outlook on the foreign exchange market is now leaning towards GBP weakness although of course there will be spikes to help out clients buying Euros. If you have a transfer to consider please contact me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Federal Reserve Decision Could Offer Euro Buying Window (Ben Fletcher)

There is a major dilemma surrounding a lot of clients at the moment as to whether or not now is a good or bad time to buy Euro’s. There has, in a lot of people’s views been a major drop in the rate which in turn causes client’s to wait for the rate to rise. Tomorrow the Federal Interest Rate decision may well cause a spike in the Euro rising a few cent.

USA Federal Reserve Decision

The EUR/USD pair are the most traded currency in the market, this means when something happens with the currency pair there are knock-on effects to other pairs. If the Federal Reserve do not increase interest rates then money may come out of the USD and into the Euro strengthening the single currency. It is also always important to consider that there will be a statement after the decision where the reason’s for the decision and the future outlook will be discussed. The statement can have more influence than the interest rate decision itself, this was proven by Mario Draghi’s speech last week.

The Eurozone will also see the Consumer Price Index released this week and if this is positive coupled with some positive trade balance figures for Europe, there could be a few cent jump for the Euro. This morning the rate is already moving towards 1.28 leaving 1.29 buying levels behind.

Please contact me if you would like to find out more information regarding the GBP/EUR rate. I am happy to provide you with assistance and help you achieve the best rates when changing currencies, contact me at brf@currencies.co.uk.

 

The Pound’s Slide Continues (Daniel Johnson)

There was significant movement last week for Sterling against all major currency parings. This was mainly due to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision last Thursday.  The ECB announced there would be a rise in Quantitative Easing from €60bn-€80bn. Mario Draghi the Head of the ECB also announced there would be a drop in key interest rates. I expected a much more severe reaction on GBP/EUR, but instead we only saw   the 1.30 mark hit momentarily. Mario Draghi adopted a very bullish stance after the changes were announced and declared there would be no further cuts. The pound then fell sharply against the Euro. I was shocked to see the market move so significantly on a bankers words as apposed to the actual changes made to Eurozone monetary policy. I feel with the EU referendum pending and polls suggesting it will be very tight the pound has little chance of any substantial recovery until after the vote on 23rd June. I think the implementation of further QE and a drop in interest rates was the final chance of a convincing rally for Sterling against the Euro.

Banque de France minister Francois Villeroy de Galhou spoke in the last 24hrs and stated that monetary policy changes are working with 80k new jobs in France and an increase in inflation. This has seen GBP/EUR hit the 1.27s. We also have George Osbourne set to deliver the budget tomorrow and some quite severe cuts are expected, there could be further losses for the pound. If you are a Euro buyer it may be wise to move sooner rather than later.

If you have a currency requirement please do not hesitate to get in touch. I will be happy to provide a trading strategy to suit your individual needs and also guarantee to beat any competitors rate of exchange. If you would like to contact me please e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk or feel free to give me a call on 01494 787 478 and ask for Daniel Johnson. Thank you for reading my blog.

 

 

How will the Budget Statement impact Sterling Euro exchange rates? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates are waiting in anticipation for Wednesday’s Budget Statement due to be released by Chancellor George Osborne.

In what is his 8th Budget in a row the currency markets have remained relatively quiet this morning.

Eurozone industrial production data saw its best growth rate in 6 years which typically would have strengthened the Euro vs the Pound.

However, the markets have overlooked this release which seems to me as though investors are waiting to see what will happen on Wednesday.

UK unemployment figures are due to be released on Wednesday morning and we could see better than expected data as for the last few months things have been improving for the jobs market.

However, arguably more important will be the release of UK Average Earnings at the same time as this has an impact on UK inflation.

Therefore, if you need to buy or sell Euros then Wednesday afternoon will be the pivotal point for GBPEUR rates.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

What impact has the ECB had on GBPEUR exchange rates? (Dayle Littlejohn)

As I stated in my previous article the ECB’s decision last Thursday was going to have a major impact on GBPEUR exchange rates moving forward.

The ECB confirmed they would be cutting Interest Rates to 0% and increasing the amount of Quantitative Easing entering the Eurozone each month by £20bn. Moments after Mario Draghi took a very bullish stance about the European economy as a whole and exclaimed there would be no additional stimulus going forward.

The markets saw this is positive for the Euro and GBPEUR fell from 1.3050 to 1.2850. 

This week Chancellor George Osborne is set to announce his latest budget. He has already indicated cuts or on the horizon therefore I expect sterling to lose ground against the Euro this week.

If you are buying or selling Euros this year, I can give you economic information to help you time your transfer and can also offer you a better exchange rate than what you would receive with your bank and other brokerages. This can be anywhere between 1-5%. My direct email is drl@currencies.co.uk Dayle Littlejohn. Alternatively call me Monday morning on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

If you are already using a brokerage I recommend emailing me with the exact figures and I will give you our live price so you can make a comparison. This will take you 2 minutes but could save you a considerable amount of money.

Sterling and the impact of the Budget Statement (Tom Holian)

With Sterling Euro exchange rates experiencing their most volatile day all year on Thursday afternoon the markets appear to have settled during Friday afternoon’s trading session.

On Thursday as soon as the ECB announced further QE and a cut in interest rates this caused Sterling Euro exchange rates to break past 1.30 which was the best rate to buy Euros all month.

However, the opportunity was extremely short lived as ECB president Mario Draghi stated that the ECB have done enough to stop inflation in the Eurozone from falling further.

Next week the UK releases the Budget Statement on Wednesday and I think we could see Sterling struggling against all major currencies as Osborne may introduce something controversial in an attempt to help cut the deficit.

The other big problem for Sterling at the moment is the ongoing uncertainty of a potential Brexit. For me personally I just cannot see us leaving the European Union but certainly the media will hype up the issue during the next few weeks which could weigh heavily on exchange rates.

Therefore, if you need to buy Euros over the next few weeks it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for the future.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBPEUR rates changeable after ECB meeting

Readers will be well aware of the event earlier today, the latest ECD decision. The markets are still very changeable from the decision giving opportunities for the quick moving.  Rates today have been over a 6 WEEK HIGH buying the single currency.

If you have a position in the market, don’t hang around – get in contactemail hse@currencies.co.uk or call 0044 1494 787 478 and ask for myself STEVE EAKINS

Moving forward all eyes are now moving to the UK budget next week. It already has been suggested that the chancellor could paint a bleak picture for the UK economy and implement new tax rates and/or spending cuts. This will be seen as negative and result in the value of the Pound falling.

For a full breakdown of the forecast to come over the next weeks and months please contact myself, STEVE EAKINS on call 0044 1494 787 478 and ask for myself STEVE EAKINS

Today could have the biggest swings in rates for 2016 so far

Today is a very significant day as there will be major volatility in the currency markets on the back of news from the European Central Banks President, Mario Draghi. There could be a further drop to the current negative interest rates which Mario Draghi has suggested he has observed in other economies around the world, if he believes they have worked he may introduce them to the EU. More likely however there could be around €10bn of further quantitative easing introduced which is the central bank purchasing of Government debts essentially pumping money into the economy.

How does the ECB Decision today effect you?

There is a general expectation that the GBP/EUR rate will fall as we move towards the BREXIT vote. This is based on the evidence from previous votes such as the Scottish Independence referendum and the UK General Election where there was a huge Sterling sell-off. What the decision on Thursday may offer is an opportunity to purchase Euro’s at a good rate before the rate is affected by the Brexit.

On the flip side the last time we saw Mario Draghi make a big statement about the actions the ECB could take the Euro strengthened by 3 cents. This is because the ECB are seen to be proactive to improving the economy trying to make the conditions more favorable for Eurozone businesses.

If you are looking to complete a Sterling Euro trade I strongly advise getting in touch so you’re in a position to capitalise should we see the rates move.

Please contact me if you would like to find out more information regarding the GBP/EUR rate.  I am happy to provide you with assistance and achieve the best rates when changing currencies, please email me at brf@currencies.co.uk.