Monthly Archives: June 2016

Will Sterling rise against the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro rates appear to have now leveled out after falling by over 11 cents following the shock announcement of the Brexit vote.

The FTSE has recovered its losses and Sterling has seen a small rally vs the Euro during yesterday’s trading session.

The news of today will be whether Theresa May or Boris Johnson will put themselves in the frame for the Tory leadership to replace current Prime Minister David Cameron.

Michael Gove has also announced in the last few minutes that he will also be putting himself up for Tory leadership as he believes that ‘Boris cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead.’

With the political landscape in the UK now uncertain this could cause further movement on Sterling Euro exchange rates and which way is anybody’s guess at the moment.

You could argue that once we have a new leader in place this could settle the markets as it provides certainty but you could also see the Pound come under pressure as however comes in may not be a popular choice.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Where next for GBPEUR?

I think the pound is likely to come under further pressure in the next few weeks as the Brexit debate intensifies further. Trying to make sense of the present negotiations is no easy task since there are so many difficult problems to come to terms with. Will the UK even leave? This seems likely but the interests of Scotland need to be addressed as does the tricky issue of what the UK deal with the EU will mirror. Already the EU have said there will be no deal with access to the Single Market and free movement of people. This would only pave the way for further EU countries seeking to renegotiate their position and possibly increase the likelihood of a EU break up.

The will of the people has spoken and it will be the new Government’s responsibility to implement the plan. Looking at the forecast over the next few days and weeks I would expect the pound to lose further ground reacting to the headlines as we learn of news. If you have any transfers to consider involving buying or selling the pound and Euro then making some plans in advance is a wise move. The next few weeks and months are really uncharted territory and having a plan in advance is a wise move.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR sell-off pauses momentarily with the pair finding support at 1.20, but for how long? (Joseph Wright)

The downward pressure on Sterling exchange rates was eased today as the Pound gained on most major currencies pairs, and now that the brunt of the downward pressure on the Pound seems to be over, I think we can access the impact on each pair and identify the new trading channels moving forward.

In the aftermath of the ‘Brexit’ announcement the Pound fell against the Euro faster than ever before, it was the biggest drop in 30 years and that indicates just how surprised the market was by the result. UK Prime Minister David Cameron resigning shortly afterwards added fuel to the fire creating further downward pressure on the Pound.

A key level for those with a GBP/EUR currency requirement is currently the 1.20 mark. It’s acting as a support level and each time the level is breached we’ve witnessed support for Sterling with GBPEUR bouncing upwards almost immediately.

I think if 1.20 is substantially breached, and this weeks GDP figures could be the catalyst for that on Thursday should they disappoint, then we will see another big selloff in the GBP/EUR exchange rate so it may be an idea for those considering a currency conversion between the pair to think about implementing a strategy around how best to trade the pair at present levels.

If you are planning a currency exchange between GBP and EUR, feel free to get in contact with me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

 

Will the pound fall further against the Euro? (Dayle Littlejohn)

Throughout Friday’s trading period the pound continued to fall against the euro and I believe this trend will continue this week.

British politics are in disarray. The UK Prime Minister and Conservative leader David Cameron has announced he will be stepping down as Prime Minister and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has sacked shadow foreign secretary Hilary Benn this morning due to comments about his leadership. It seems like the EU referendum has divided the two major political parties and this will continue to weigh down on the pound in the weeks to come.

HSBC have announced this weekend when the UK leaves the EU that they could be pulling 1000 employees out of London and moving them to France. I believe we will hear more leading companies announcing similar statements and therefore this will also put further pressure on the Pound.

If you are looking to buy or sell Euros this year, the currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients up to 5% better exchange rates than the high street banks and other brokerages. I specialise in property purchases and sales.

Therefore if you are buying or selling a property this year and want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn

The more information you provide me, the more information I can provide you. Below is a list of what I require: your name, currency pair, brief description of requirement, amount, budget, timescales, telephone number and convenient time to call.

GBP/EUR rates collapse following Brexit vote (Joshua Privett)

Friday saw some of the largest single-day falls on record for buying Euro rates, with GBP/EUR having dropped 10 cents between 10pm Thursday night and 4am Friday morning.

Throughout the day the Pound was moving around with unprecedented volatility. But there were periods of stabilisation which were clearly visible.

Euro buyers has the significant silver lining compared to those buying US Dollars or other major currencies, in that the value of the Euro has taken a severe hit as well. Much like last year when the Euro was taking a hammering in the run up to the potential Grexit. Rates are still higher than even that of April.

Whilst the rates did drop 10 cents there were signs of stabilisation now that the bad news has effectively ‘come out’. The Pound recovered by 4 cents at its peak and nestled down to end the week at a 2 cent gain from Friday morning’s lows.

Normally a 2 cent gain in a day would be hailed as a fantastic day for the Pound, but I appreciate that in context this was a small win for anyone with a Euro buying requirement.

This story still has a lot to unfold. Nicola Sturgeon is already pushing hard for another Scottish Referendum, and businesses are threatening job losses if, down the line, the UK loses access to the single market. But these are not immediate issues for anyone considering buying or selling foreign currency.

Most movement now will be governed by speculative trading off the back of the Brexit result.

The average difference between the high and the low each day for buying and selling Euro rates of 1.5 cents will likely be thrown out the window next week. Opportunities for buying and selling Euros will present themselves on a daiy basis. A premium will simply be put on being able to move quickly, as Friday proved these improvements will not be around for long.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying or selling requirement should contact me whilst markets are closed over the weekend on jjp@currencies.co.uk. I offer a tailored service to anyone wishing to exchange currency in this current arena filled with atypical levels of volatilty, and alert my customers immediately to any opportunities which emerge.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange offered elsewhere, and these current buying levels can actually be fixed in place for anyone planning a currency purchase in the future, allowing you to avoid the uncertainty over the next few weeks.

 

Huge losses for Sterling vs the Euro following Brexit vote (Tom Holian)

Sterling has fallen by as much as ten cents vs the Euro during this morning’s trading session after the EU referendum vote showed that the Leave campaign has won.

This went against all bookies’ expectations and there has been huge losses for Sterling not just against the Euro but against all major currencies.

Indeed, GBPUSD rates have dropped by 10% which is the lowest level for the currency pair since 1985 and the vote has also caused £120bn to be wiped off the FTSE already this morning.

Prime Minister David Cameron has announced his resignation this morning and will be leaving by October and this has also added to the economic and political uncertainty.

Sterling is in for a very rocky road ahead and further volatility is expected over the weekend. This has created the best opportunity to sell Euros into Sterling for months.

Whether or not the trend will continue is very difficult to say but clearly GBPEUR rates will be uncertain for quite some time to come.

Nicola Sturgeon has also just spoken and is discussing potentially another vote at some stage for Scottish independence as the Scottish vote was unanimous in favour of remaining in the European Union.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly.

For a more immediate response in light of the market movement please also supply your name and phone number when emailing me. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Remain looks set to win and how will Sterling Euro rates perform? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have been trading within a range between 1.29 and 1.31 during today’s trading session as we are now just hours away from one of the biggest events in UK economic history.

The likelihood owing to the latest set of odds from the bookies are showing the Remain camp with a clear lead and this is likely to result in some gains for Sterling tomorrow if this outcome is true.

Clearly there is a big appetite for a Leave vote but it appears as though there will only be one winner.

The impact this may have on Sterling Euro exchange rates is that if the vote is close when the results are released tomorrow morning then this could cause some wobbles for the Pound as it shows that there will be a lot of unhappy voters.

If you’re looking to take advantage of any of these spikes in exchange rates then contact me directly on 01494-787478.

Having worked in the industry since 2003 I am confident of helping you save money when buying or selling Euros.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

How will the EU Referendum result affect my Trade? (Daniel Johnson)

A current poll conducted by the Telegraph which is based on the average of the latest six polls has the remain camp in front at 51%. The bookies have the remain camp as favorites with the odds at 1/7. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) have recently released a report which has laid out the severe economic consequences of a Brexit. Christine Lagaurde the Head of the IMF  has said the situation if the UK leave will range form “pretty bad to very,very bad. This was followed by Finland’s finance minister, Alexander Stubb stating a Brexit could be “Europe’s Lehman Brothers”.

The tragic death of MP and Joe Cox and Faraj’s tasteless poster campaign also caused the remain camp to gain momentum. GBP/EUR sits at 1.30 and if I was selling Euros I would be tempted to bite the bullet I think the UK will remain in the EU, although by a small margin. I would predict GBP/EUR to move above 1.36. Hedging should definitely be considered and is the sensible option. If the UK do leave expect 1.15.

As results arrive later throughout the next 24hrs I expect swings in the market if you are looking to trade pre-referendum, please do get in touch and I will be happy to get in touch and let you now of significant market movements.

If you would like me to provide a free, individual trading strategy do not hesitate to get in touch. I will also provide a comparison against any competitors rate of exchange, I am very rarely beaten. I work for Foreign Currency Direct PLC and as one of the top brokerages in the Country it enables us to obtain the best possible rates of exchange. Feel free to check our credentials online to give you peace of mind using our services. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.

 

GBPEUR RATES NOW FOR BREXIT

If you have a property to buy your exposure to the market is key, and with EU vote TOMORROW now is the time to discuss your situation if you have not already. The market will continually change to price in the expectations of the market and as a result this next week will be VERY VOLATILE. There will be opportunities and risks for all who have an open position and need to buy funds . That is if you think the risk is outweighed by the opportunity. Many people think that rates will go up if we REMAIN and fall if we LEAVE, however the fall will be much greater than that of the uplift or climb in Sterling’s value.  IS THE RISK WORTH IT?

If you want to buy before the event make sure to get in contact today – email me at hse@currencies.co.uk – we can assist within a period of ten minutes normally depending on your situation.  This however is the last day that you have this chance.

Tomorrow the polls open and the 356 stations around the UK will start to report results from around 4 am on Friday.  As we see these rates will be very very changeable!!!!

If you decide to wait and see, opening your exposure and being happy with the risk, you will probably want to move start after the result in either case.  If the UK vote REMAIN rates will more than likely spike and as with most spikes the best levels are normally straight away. Alternatively if we see a LEAVE Sterling’s value will probably collapse and therefore ‘ripping of the plaster quickly will probably be best’. We are open from 7 am on the news, let me know if you want my assistant to move quickly, email me NOW is that is the case with your contact details and situation – hse@currencies.co.uk

Will the Markets Start to Get Nervous?

So far it has been pretty plain sailing for GBP/EUR with the rate jumping above 1.30 and remaining at that level. This movement has come from the markets pricing in a Remain win suggesting the decision is a full gone conclusion. I am surprised that the movement has been so major and I am unsure that the vote is a complete conclusion. The polls are still very close and tomorrow as the exit polls are slowly released throughout the day I would not be surprised to see major swings in the market.

My advice would be to anyone who is looking to complete a currency exchange to get in contact, my role as a currency broker means I can have access to the best rates. I am also able to monitor the market very vigorously and should there be any significant movements in your favour make sure you’re in a position to capitalise on the rate.

The rate is expected to swing significantly throughout the day so the challenge in the next few days is making sure you’re in a trading capacity.

If you’re looking to sell Euros this may be one of your final opportunities to reach low rates as if a Remain does win I believe the rate could find itself up around the 1.35’s by the end of the week.

If you would like any information with regards to a currency requirement you might have please send me an email at brf@currencies.co.uk. I would be more than happy to have a discussion with you about when to time your trade.

Is now a good time to buy Euros? (Daniel Wright)

It has become quite clear that with only 2 days prior to the Referendum, the bookmaker’s odds of a Brexit are currently playing a huge part in Sterling strength. Investor confidence in a Remain is growing and Sterling is rallying against a number of major currencies.

But let’s be clear, rates are volatile and although we are seeing an uptrend throughout the early hours of this morning, caution should be exercised as we approach Thursday’s historic event.

We only need to look at trading yesterday to know just how quickly the market moves, between 5-5:10pm GBPEUR fell over half a cent then recovered 30 minutes later, the same was observed for GBPUSD. These spikes and falls in rates are premature signs of what to expect in the event the UK withdraws from the EU.

The big question remains as to whether making an exchange now would be worthwhile or holding on to the results of the Referendum in the hope that the UK remains, this of course – is a huge gamble.

On the flip side, buying this side of the EU Referendum may also present another gamble, if you’re looking to emigrate and buy a property within the EU for example, you may now be faced with uncertainty over your rights, or concerned with additional taxes and surcharges. Having the better exchange rate may give you more Euro’s now, but render them totally useless in the event you opted out of a purchase due to a Brexit.

It’s generally accepted that a Remain vote will boost Sterling potentially into the mid/late 1.30’s and this of course would be the ideal circumstance for our clients and those looking to invest within Europe. If the pollsters and bookmakers have it right, this will be the likely outcome on Friday.

But as we’ve learnt from the past, polls are not always indicative of final results, we only need to look at the Scottish Referendum to know that the polls were incorrect, and bookmakers don’t always get it right either so remain cautious of any poll suggestions.

If you have a currency transfer to make for a property of business transaction, buying this side of the Referendum could well be a good idea given the recent rally in the Pound. I would not expect these rates to remain if polls or bookmakers change their odds in favour of a Brexit over the next few days.

I must also reiterate that Pound Sterling will most likely drop significantly if a Brexit materialises, please consider this when making a timed transfer.

If you are in the middle of buying or selling a property overseas or if your business has upcoming requirements then you need to make sure you have a proactive broker on your side. There are options available to you including limit orders, stop losses and forward contracts, all of these can help you minimise your currency risk in this difficult market.

We here at Pound Sterling Forecast all work for one of the largest currency brokerages in the U.K with access to exceedingly competitive and rarely beaten rates of exchange, along with awards for our customer service. If you feel that we may be beneficial to you then feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) the creator of this site many years ago and I will be more than happy to help you personally. We deal with bank to bank transfers ranging from £1000 to multi-million pound exchanges and will be able to explain all of the options to you in clear and easy to understand terms. Email me today ondjw@currencies.co.uk with a description of what you need to do and a contact number and I will contact you at the earliest opportunity. You can also call our trading floor hotline during trading hours on 01494 787 478.

GBP/EUR exchange rates shoot through the roof (Joshua Privett)

The Pound had its strongest day on the currency markets today since March 2009. Buying Euro rates nearly bridged above 1.30 for the first time in a few weeks as currency markets reeled with euphoria with the news that the Remain camp was gaining in the polls.

Frankly, the news was quite unexpected to cause such a stir. Whilst the Remain camp has gained in the polls the overall numbers are still largely neck-and-neck. The Financial Times has it as 44% apiece – with the rest undecided, and the poll of all polls which discounts the undecided voters, has the tally at 50:50. So the news was not decisive by any stretch of the imagination,  but the results were.

With it being essentially a toss of the coin at the moment, how markets will react over the next few days will make things difficult for anyone planning a foreign currency purchase.

How will markets react moving forward? It is difficult to say. Frankly, with markets still needing to find some decisive information before deciding to take a gamble on the Pound, it is likely that GBP/EUR exchange will still be falling as we edge closer to the vote. Waiting any further to buy Euros will simply depend on your risk appetite.

If you wish to entirely avoid the risk and seize the positive movements on exchange rates afforded to Euro buyers recently, then I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk for a free quote on your transfer.

These current exchange rates can also be fixed in place for anyone considering conducting a foreign currency transfer, effectively allowing you to pre-order currency and avoid the risk surrounding the Referendum vote itself.

 

 

Huge risk to Sterling ahead of Brexit vote on Thursday (Tom Holian)

We are now only 5 days away from when the UK goes to the polls to vote on the EU referendum which could be the biggest risk to Sterling in its history against the Euro.

Liquidity in the Pound has already fallen which meant that the Bank of England pumped in another £2.5bn into the markets last Tuesday in order to avoid a potential run on Sterling.

If the UK votes to Leave the we could see a big fall in the value of Sterling not just against the Euro but against all other major currencies as it will discourage any global investment as we enter a period of uncertainty.

However, personally I would be surprised to see anything other than a vote to Remain. My reasoning is that if you look at who is in favour of staying this includes the UK government, Bank of England, European Union, International Monetary Fund and the City of London so I think it would be difficult to see anything but a Remain vote.

However, the vote is democratic and ultimately only time will tell and if the recent opinion polls are to be believed the Leave vote is still in the lead.

Do bear in mind though that the polls only include a limited amount of people rather than the millions who will be voting next week.

An option to protect yourself from potential volatility is to buy a forward contract as for a small deposit this allows you to fix an exchange rate for a date in the future and eliminates the risk of where markets may be in the future. This is very useful is you’re worried about the impact of Thursday’s vote.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to avoid the risk of what may happen when the voting is finally announced then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBPEUR is likely to come under pressure next week!

If you are looking to make a GBPEUR currency exchange then taking advantage of the current market is the best way to mitigate your uncertainty. We are expecting the market to slip in the coming week as uncertainty over the outcome increases. Despite it looking like we would see a Remain vote, (this is still the preferred option according to the bookmakers) I would be very wary of hanging on expecting a big improvement in the exchange rate. The currency markets are fickle beasts so it would be quite dangerous to be gambling too much on one outcome. The Remain camp winning is not guaranteed to deliver sterling strength, this is likely to be the outcome but there are never any guarantees! The same is true of a Leave vote, if you need to make a transfer there are no guarantees the rate will slide. GBPEUR could rise on a Leave as the Euro weakens, the GBPEUR rate could slip as the Euro strengthens.

If you have a transfer to consider please feel free to get in touch by speaking to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. We are in the market to help with any transactions you will need to consider so if you wish to learn more please do get in touch!

Sterling off to a flying start as campaigning stops (Ben Fletcher)

Due to the tragic news yesterday that MP Jo Cox was murdered in her constituency the EU Referendum Leave and Remain camps have stopped campaigning as a mark of respect.

In a campaign that was built on strumming up emotions and trying to appeal to people passionately the stalling in the campaigns could have a much more significant effect on the Leave than the Remain. Jo Cox was a very passionate Remain campaigner and a huge believer in the UK helping people in need. With rumours being reported that the attacker shouted “Britain First” this could have a significant effect on peoples thoughts and maybe re-evaluate their own decision.

This morning Sterling has jumped nearly a whole cent this morning touching just below the 1.27 barrier. The rate has now settled around the mid 1.26’s which seems to be where the market has priced in the EU Referendum.

There are many people who are holding on Euro’s waiting for the rate to plummet however it seems that the rate has hit a bit of a barrier. Whilst there is a very good chance that the rate may plummet in the final few days before the referendum this may not happen. If the UK then remain in the EU the GBP/EUR may jump as soon as this outcome looks likely.

If you would like to discuss anything regarding currency in the next few weeks please feel free to send me Ben Fletcher an email at brf@currencies.co.uk. There is so much happening in the world of currency at the moment and I am more than happy to help you make sense of what you’re looking to achieve.

GBPEUR latest on BREXIT

Sterling exchange rates continue to fall and this seems very likely to continue, even the best unemployment figures for the UK which were released yesterday did not even help its value climb. All economic events seem to be overshadowed by the speculation on the BREXIT vote next week.  Yesterday The Sun, the UK’s most popular paper came out as supporting the Leave campaign and this seems to have been the driving factor for more sterling weakness. It seems the population of the UK has been driven more by the papers views rather than leading economists, scientists and global leaders – a rather surprising thought.

Today all eyes are on the UK interest rate decision and comment by the Bank of England.  Policy is widely expected to remain unchanged however it will be the commentary thereafter later this afternoon which impacts market movement.  The bank is supposed to be removed from political campaigns and as a result mute on the topic however they have been quite forthcoming with views.  As a result watch out for this as the driving factor in today’s market.

If you are in the market at the moment and looking to sell GBP there seems very little argument to wait, it seems fairly clear that rates will remain under pressure until the results are published early Friday of next week.  If you think/hope that the UK will remain within the EU you can expect GBP rates to climb, if however you think there is a chance of a ‘Leave’ result watch your positions as rates are likely to fall.

Here we offer rate alerts  if you have a budget to keep to – a useful tool that many have been taking full advantage of at the moment. We can also assist with currency transfers and I would be surprised if I could not get you a better rate than you are being offered by your current provider.

If you would like more information on this tool or anything else with regards to currency movements at the moment please feel free to get in contact – email myself Steve Eakins via hse@currencies.co.uk or call me directly on our trading floor on 01494 787 478 – Please ask for Steve Eakins.

Sterling Falling Despite Better Unemployment Data (James Lovick)

The pound saw a boost yesterday after official figures showed unemployment fell to just 5%, the lowest level since 2005. Interestingly wage growth also rose as a result of the introduction of the National Living Wage. This wage growth figure is extremely topical with just one week to go today before the UK referendum on EU membership. The reality is that the increase in UK wages will without doubt be an incentive for other EU citizens to seek work in the UK where levels of income are considerably higher than in other parts of the EU. It’s not just immigration though – The Bank of England have made very clear that wage growth is one area it pays particular attention to when deciding the future course of interest rates. The pound would have received a much larger boost had it not been for the referendum which is naturally overshadowing data like this.

With the Bank of England meeting today there is virtually nil chance of rate hike today, focus will be on contingency plans for the week ahead. This has the potential to be one of the most volatile periods in the last 50 years for sterling exchange rates and a vote to Leave is likely to result in weakness for the pound, in the short term at least anyway. For anyone buying Euros the gamble is whether to wait – A Remain vote would see the pound strengthen, a Leave vote should see the pound fall sharply. For anyone selling Euros the odds could be in your favour.

The Remain campaign in my view has been only one sided as well as negative in this referendum so it is no surprise to me that the Great British public appear to be leaning towards a Leave vote. The disillusionment of the EU cannot be overstated. As such expect major fireworks come 24th June as a vote to Leave could see huge falls for GBP EUR below 1.20 in the space of a couple of days and further from there.

As I have commented before Britain in not in this alone though. The EU relies extremely heavily on Britain and a vote to Leave will have major implications for the EU. The EU will have a black hole that Britain will not be contributing to, let alone the financial contagion across Europe and this could create some major problems for the Euro in the medium term.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency requirement either buying or selling and would like to be kept up to date with key market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively you can email me directly at jll@currencies.co.uk

Quieter Day for Sterling as Referendum Battle Continues

The Referendum debate became a naval battle today as Nigel Farage of the Leave campaign came to verbal blows with Bob Geldof across the Thames in London. Fisherman had planned to campaign for a Brexit by sailing along the Thames, however they were met by boats supporting the Remain camp. This then led to Geldof and Farage barking comments across the boats and creating a somewhat entertaining spectacle.

Osborne this afternoon said he could have to increase income tax and inheritance tax if we were to leave the EU. He has made it very clear that there would be a £30bn shortfall that would have to be covered due to a Brexit. Unsurprisingly this was rebuked by the Leave campaign as just once again the government scaremongering.

The bookies have tightened there odds even further and almost have the chances of a Brexit on a similar par to a remain victory. It seems fairly clear that if this was a horse race the rate the odds have been slashed for the Leave campaign you would be backing them to produce a win.

The GBP/EUR rate is currently sitting around the 1.26 mark. Having previously been considered a really good time for Euro sellers, with the real chance of a Brexit Euro buyers should be thinking about their future plans. A month ago it seemed like the UK would vote for a Remain and it would be back to business as usual. Now however the reality is a Leave looks very plausible and this will cause GBP/EUR to drop if it happens, purchasing Euro’s before the referendum could allow certainty in a very uncertain time period.

If you do have a currency requirement or would like to find out further information with regards to a GBP/EUR rate forecast. Please feel free to send me an email at brf@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR forecast breakdown before the EU vote

GBPEUR rates are incredibly changeable at the moment. Yesterday was only the beginning and with another 9 days until the vote it is important to watch the market movement keenly.

We saw rates move 1 cent down and then one cent up in the space of 10 minutes yesterday afternoon.

The reason for these large swings is the little amount of money in the market at the moment and how jittery traders and speculators are.  In these times, any large position on the market can itself cause further movement.  We see this traditionally over the festive period when trading floors are closed or quiet.

We have European data due this week to which should also be watched but again it is the bookies odds on the EU vote which is really driving market movement.

US FED on market movement

The US Federal Reserve release their latest interest rate decision this week and again is an event to watch out for.  They are likely to confirm no change in policy which in turn will probably push more USD into EURO’s making them in turn more expensive.  It really does seem that there are very little opportunities for GBPEUR traders to pin their hopes onto at the moment. It seems rates will either go up a little or fall a lot in the next 9 days. You have to have a very strong argument to wait at the moment – all based on the assumption that you are wanting to avoid risking your purchase over the event itself.

If you are waiting for the result, make sure to move on Friday in either case.  If the UK votes to leave the EU rates are expected to fall significantly and it will be like ‘ripping off the plaster quickly rather than slowly’ which will be the least painful. It is not just the economic uncertainty that will follow but also the political as David Cameron’s future as PM is very much linked to a result of leave.  If the result is a ‘Remain’ then expect rates to climb quickly,  the best levels will again be on the news itself, we will see the speculators take profits and for markets to bounce about.  The peak in these situations are normally on the news itself.

So in summary. If you are needing EUROS before the event, moving sooner rather than later is widely expected to be the right decision, it is certainty the most popular. If you are happy to watch and wait, it the result is LEAVE – it may be sensible to trade quickly. If it is REMAIN either move quickly as well to get the very best price or take a breath and wait for the dust to settle over the days thereafter.

If you would like more information on the above, the timings, live prices or anything else to do with currency, please feel free to contact the author Steve Eakins – email him directly at hse@currencies.co.uk

Pound starts the week on the back foot (Dayle Littlejohn)

As expected the Pound has started poorly against the Euro this week due to the fears of a ‘Brexit’ vote. GBPEUR has fallen 1.4cents in the last 24 hours making a €200,000 purchase £1750 more expensive.

Yesterday Barings Asset Management released a statement suggesting the Pound could lose 20% in value if they were to leave the EU which would push GBPEUR exchange rates to parity. Personally I believe the UK leaving the EU is going to have a negative impact on the Euro also therefore exchange rates will fall between 1.10-1.15 if the UK were to leave.

With only 10 days to go until the Great British public decide the fate of the UK, both camps are going to be trying to win the remaining undecided vote. No doubt we will hear further scaremongering tactics from both camps and therefore the volatility will cause the Pounds value to fall.

With the chance of a ‘Brexit’ becoming more likely a popular contract being used by lots of my clients is a forward contract. You can pay us a small deposit of the sum you are purchasing, we can lock into today’s rates and you pay later once all of your sterling is available. For more information feel free to email me.

As for economic data this morning the UK release their latest Inflation numbers and I do not believe this will stop the plummeting rates, if anything rates could fall further off the back of the announcement.

Wednesday evening the US release their latest Interest Rate decision. I believe Chairlady of the Fed will remain doveish in her comments and therefore will decide not to raise interest rates and we could potentially see US dollars sold to buy euros for speculative purposes. If this occurs expect GBPEUR to drop further.

If you are looking to buy or sell Euros this year (especially before June 23rd), the currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients up to 5% better exchange rates than the high street banks and other brokerages. I specialise in property purchases and sales.

Therefore if you are buying or selling a property this year and want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn

The more information you provide me, the more information I can provide you. Below is a list of what I require: your name, currency pair, brief description of requirement, amount, budget, timescales, telephone number and convenient time to call.