Monthly Archives: December 2016

What can we expect next for the pound to euro rates?

2017 should be an interesting year for GBPEUR as we learn of fresh political uncertainty in the Eurozone and also the UK. The question is which currency will be the weaker, will it be the Euro or will it be the pound. In my personal opinion we will see both currencies come under real pressure but it could be at different times. Therefore I expect a rocky performance with some big swings on the market. It would not be out of the question to see rates between 1.10 and 1.30 in 2017. If you think that is unrealistic the swings this year have been between 1.36 and 1.06 which is 30 cents. 20 cents next year is by no means out of the question.

Firstly starting with the pound the big news will be the Supreme Court decision and market reaction. I personally expect the Supreme Court to uphold the decision that the UK Government must seek parliamentary approval to trigger Article 50. Whilst loosely GBP positive as it makes a hard Brexit less likely, following this release I think attention will shift towards the outstanding big questions over Brexit, namely what it means and the type of deal the UK can get. These negotiations are unlikely to be smooth and it will be this uncertainty which will act as a hindrance to the pound and will see sterling lower.

The Euro will come under further pressure owing to the political uncertainty in the European Union as the French and Germans go to the polls. I expect this uncertainty to manifest in the latter stages of the year as we approach Summer after the French elections in April. The greater degree of uncertainty stems I believe from the German elections which are in the Autumn.

I believe GBPEUR will retest the lows towards 1.10 in the first 3 months of 2017 before rising towards the end of the year as attention turns to European affairs. If you have a currency exchange involving the pound and the euro then please get in touch with me to learn more about the latest trends and themes which will effect your exchange rate. Please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn the latest news that might influence your exchange rate.

Sterling Struggling to Find Support Above 1.20 (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has found a lot of resistance around 1.20 against the EUR, with the single currency continuing to find support under this threshold.

The Pound has touched this level on more than one occasion over the past couple of weeks but evidently does have enough market support, or investor confidence to breach this consistently under the current market conditions.

1.20 has become something of a glass ceiling for the Pound and whilst GBP has clearly found a foothold over recent weeks, I’m not convinced that we are going to see another aggressive move in the short-term.  Whilst the Eurozone is facing multiple problems of its own, both economically and politically, the UK economy’s  prosperity is currently being driven by our on-going Brexit from the EU.

This is likely dominate market sentiment for months, possibly even years to come and as such I would be wary about putting too much faith in sustainable Sterling strength. Until we have a clear picture of how we will facilitate our Brexit the uncertainty that this has created will handicap any major advances for the Pound in my opinion.

I do feel as we move into 2017 and assuming we do get some factual information released about how the UK economy will move forward post Brexit, that economic issues manifesting themselves inside the Eurozone will inadvertently push Sterling’s value up. However, I would be prepared to gamble on this and as such I would be taking advantage of the 4-5 cent improvement seen for those clients holding the Pound over the past month.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

 

Buying Euro rates fairly stagnant today despite horrific attacks in Germany (Joshua Privett)

Seemingly two opposing forces have hit the marketplace today, with GBP/EUR as a result moving heavily but showing little net change by the close of play today in UK markets at 6pm.

GBP/EUR oscillated by only 0.7 of a cent between the high and the low today with, at the time of writing this post, only a net change of 0.16% from the beginning of the opening to the close of play.

The utterly abhorrent news emerging out of Germany overnight warranted some shedding of the Euro by investors who wanted to protect themselves from any adverse repercussions on the currency markets. The sell off of Euros is what caused its value to decline.

However, when it emerged the attack was isolated and follow-ups had been discounted, the Euro quickly settled back to its original value before the horrific news had proliferated into the marketplace.

Following this GBP/EUR rates of exchange were largely governed by end of year flows on the currency markets which explained the choppy nature of the exchange rates as the day wore on.

As we enter into the final days before Christmas this seems set to continue, with GBP/EUR exchange rates moving heavily throughout the day, however with little to show for it as markets tend to stabilize.

As such for anyone planning a foreign currency transfer in the near future, the key will be to attempt to catch the market at a peak, rather than a trough. Meaning that being in a position to move quickly in these scenarios is crucial.

I offer a proactive service in order to keep my customers informed of any potential movements, and as such am in a position to be your eyes and ears in the market place – relaying pertinent information and tempting trading levels.

You can contact me overnight whilst markets are closed on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in order to maximise your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for anyone buying foreign currency in the near future and wish to secure an exchange rate presently.

GBP/EUR Hits 1.20 (Daniel Johnson)

Last night saw the US interest rate decision. Janet Yellen the Chair Lady of the Federal Reserve indicated last year there would be as many as four rate hikes in 2016, none of which materialised. She has since been accredited as a very cautious Chair Lady and Trump is not happy with the lack of hikes. He went as far as to threaten her position.

Yellen’s hand seems to have been forced not only by this factor but also by the very positive data coming out of the US at present. It was widely expected there was to be a hike of 0.25% which did materialise. The Euro has suffered since against both the US dollar and Sterling as investors leave the Euro in search of safety and higher returns. The hike caused GBP/EUR to very briefly strike 1.20 but has since dropped back into the mid 1.19s. It seems the 1.20 mark is becoming a resistance point as demonstrated when GBP/EUR hit 1.2040 very briefly after the Italian prime minister resignation, Matteo Renzi. If you are buyning Euros short term it may be wise to take advantage of current levels.

If  you have a currency requirement it is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker. The timing of your trade is vital during such volatile  times, If you have an experienced broker on board he/she can keep you up to date with what is happening in the market to help you make an informed decision. Should you find our information useful and you would like me to assist with your trade I will be happy to help you personally. If you inform me of the the currency pair you are trading, volume and time scale and I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your needs. I work for one of the top brokerages in the country and as such I am in a position to better virtually every competitors rate of exchange. You would also be looking at saving anything up to 4% in comparison to high street banks. Please do get in touch by contacting me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading my blog.

What will move GBPEUR this week?

GBPEUR rates have slipped ahead of the Fed meeting this evening which could easily see the pound lower against the Euro tomorrow. Many analysts predict the US dollar will strengthen and the Euro will weaken but with much of this expectation priced into current rates I think that it is unlikely the Euro will weaken too much. Personally I think the US dollar could actually weaken a little which would strengthen the Euro.

Other news tomorrow is the latest information on the Eurozone Inflation report which could easily cause some movement on the GBPEUR rates. Personally I would be surprised to see this weaken the Euro since the Inflation levels have actually been rising which is presenting some strengthening in the Euro area. If you have a transfer to consider in the future involving the pound and the Euro tonight’s decision is key.

Personally I would not be surprised to see the pound weaken in the New Year and I think GBPEUR could be very close to the very top of the current ranges on offer. If you have a transfer to make then making plans in advance is key to minimising your risk. We offer a number of options to limit your exposure to the markets which include the ability to fix a rate for up to two years.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Today’s US FED Interest Rate Decision Likely to Affect Global Markets (Matthew Vassallo)

Today’s much anticipated interest rate decision by the US Federal reserve, is likely to have an influence on the global currency markets.

This means anyone with a GBP/EUR currency exchange to make should be keeping a close eye on market developments throughout the day.

Whilst there is no direct correlation, the high chanced of a rate hike means that investors could well move their money away from riskier currencies and back into the USD.

With pressure on both the UK and Eurozone economies this is harder to dissect but instinct is that the EUR will be seen as the weaker of the two and as such we could see EUR positions sold off this evening. In turn we could see EUR weakness against the Pound but whether or not it will be enough to push the apart through 1.20 I’m not so convinced.

The single currency has come under pressure since last week’s announcement by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi, that they would be extending their current monetary policy programme beyond the current deadline of March 2017. With the new timeline set to continue their bond buying scheme until December next year, the markets immediately took this a sign of weakness in the Eurozone economy and the EUR weakened as a result.

Whilst this announcement was at least in part expected, it is proof that investor confidence in the Eurozone region is low and the Pounds value was inadvertently pushed up as a result of this.

GBP/EUR rates have moved through 1.19 and whilst I expect the EUR to find support around the 1.20 level, it is becoming increasingly clear that the EUR is unlikely to move back to the high we saw a few months ago, so those clients holding EUR positons should act accordingly. The EUR is still trading at extremely attractive levels against the Pound when you consider history on the pair and with so much un certainty surrounding the Eurozone, both politically and economically, now could be the time to act.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR may rise towards the end of this week!

The pound to euro exchange rate could experience volatility towards the end of this week following a key piece of economic news from the United States. The US will vote on whether or not to raise their interest rate this week Wednesday and it is widely expected they will vote to hike rates by 0.25%. If you are looking to make GBPEUR exchange this news will have an impact on your exchange rate and the currency markets.

The US dollar is the worlds most traded currency and as such has very strong relationships with each currency. Simply put movements on the US dollar have bearing on all currencies. Therefore with the big decision on Wednesday night we could see the pound and the Euro reacting individually to the US dollar which will influence their own relationship.

The outcome of tomorrow’s decision will in my opinion weaken the Euro since the pound has generally been holding up against the US dollar. Therefore as the US dollar strengthens (assuming the Fed do raise rates) then the Euro should weaken which will present some better opportunities to buy the Euro with the pound.

This morning at 09.30 am is the latest UK Inflation data which will of course effect the pound, then tomorrow is the latest UK Unemployment data. Retail Sales for the UK is released Thursday when of course we will also have the latest news from the US Interest rate decision. Another factor in all of this will be the Inflation Eurozone data released Thursday, all in all this is a busy week for the GBPEUR rate.

I expect the GBPEUR rate to be higher towards the end of the week, if you have any transfers to consider please speak to me about how to go about forming a strategy to help you capitalise on any improvements. Please either email jmw@currencies.co.uk or call 01494 787 478. I would be very interested to speak with you and offer assistance with your plans.

Sterling makes gains vs the Euro following ECB action (Tom Holian)

GBPEUR exchange rates have made gains following the action taken by the European Central Bank during yesterday’s trading session.

The central bank announced that they will be continuing their Quantitative Easing programme which was due to end in March 2017. The plan is now to reduce the monthly amount from €80bn per month to €60bn per month until December.

As the ECB have bought so many bonds already they now have to make purchases of negative ones which in effect means by performing QE this actually costs the central bank money to do it.

This has caused the Euro to dramatically fall vs the US Dollar and also against Sterling which is now back to levels seen early Monday morning following the news from the Italian referendum which saw GBPEUR rates hit their best level to buy Euros in 4 months.

Clearly the issues surrounding the triggering of Article 50 have not yet been resolved and the Supreme Court judgement is not due until January so I’m personally expecting the volatility to continue between Sterling and Euro but I do feel there is room for improvement for the Pound vs the single currency and I predict that we could see 1.20 hit before the end of this year.

Indeed, this morning UK Trade Balance figures came out better than expected which has seen the Pound improve overnight by 1 cent vs the Euro providing some good news for those looking to transfer money to Europe.

Having worked in the foreign exchange markets since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your transfer of money.

If you need to buy or sell Euros and would like a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Draghi’s QE announcment causes volatility on GBP/EUR (Daniel Johnson)

QE statement causes big swings on GBP/EUR 

This afternoon we saw Draghi address the situation on Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is essentially printing money and then injecting it into an economy in order to stimulate growth.  One of the major concerns for the European Central Bank (ECB) is deflation in the Eurozone. Inflation levels are currently teetering on the brink of deflation and QE has not had the desired affect. The program was due to end in March, which had €60bn going into the struggling Eurozone every month. Not to continue QE had the possibility to cause disaster in the bloc.

Draghi as expected, lengthened the current program to December, but drew the line at increasing monthly increments. It caused GBP/EUR to be up and down like a cork in a bath tub. GBP/EUR currently sits in the 1.18s. With so much uncertainty regarding Brexit, if I was selling Sterling short term I would not set my  trade target much more than 1.19.

If you have to perform a currency trade it is important to use a skilled broker for your trade in order to achieve competitive rates and to assist in timing your trade. If you require my assistance let me know the amount you are looking to transfer, the currency pair you are trading and the time scale you have for your trade and I will endeavor to produce an individual trading strategy to try and maximize your return.

You could be looking at up to a 4% saving by using us compared to the banks and you can trade with us with peace of mind knowing you are dealing with an FCA registered company that has been in business for over 16yrs. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading our blogs and I look forward to helping with your trading requirements.

 

GBP/EUR Rates Retract Following Sterling Spike (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have retracted over the early part of the trading week, with the pair falling below 1.18 on the exchange.

The Pound had made a move through 1.20 in the early hours of Monday morning, following the Italian referendum result and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s subsequent resignation. This caused investors to panic due to the political and potential negative economic effects this would have on the Eurozone and Sterling benefited as a result.

However, this positive momentum was short lived and the EUR has fought back, proving how fragile the UK economy remains in the eyes of investors. The EUR has benefited from a strong run of economic data, including better than expected Retail Sales figures.

We also saw their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) number come it at 1.7%, better than the expected 1.6% growth. This is such  key release for an economy as it gives us a key insight into the current economic standing, as well as an insight into future growth prospects.

This combined has helped the single currency to bounce back against Sterling and with the current Supreme Court ruling on whether the UK can leave the EU without Article 50 being ratified by MP’s, expect further market uncertainty over the coming days and weeks.

Personally I wouldn’t be prepared to gamble on the current market. There are concerns over whether the European Central Bank’s (ECB) will extend their current monetary policy (QE) programme beyond its current deadline of March, at tomorrow’s policy meeting. If this does occur it could start to heap pressure back on the EUR, so today may be an opportune moment to execute and short-term EUR/GBP currency exchanges.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Buying Euro exchange rates showing very tentative rises (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR rose to new three month highs yesterday following the result of the Italian Referendum, briefly breaching 1.20 before falling back down into the 1.18’s as the situation continued to evolve and further news was released.

This referendum was an attempt to change the Italian constitution due to years of ineptitude which has resulted in 64 different governments in the space of 73 years. Whilst to outsiders the reforms seemed quite reasonable, the fact that the Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi stated he would resign if the reform did not go through is why markets were so worried.

The rise of the far right in Italy is a concern and Renzi’s departure paves the way from them to eventually gain power and hold their own Referendum of partnership in the EU, all of which could happen within 6 months. The ‘No’ vote was seen as another in a long-line now of protest votes which has riddled 2016.

Furthermore, this put pressure on the planned bailout of Italian Banks, who are dependent on Eurozone intervention to avoid falling into bankruptcy.

The Euro fell immediately yesterday as a knee jerk reaction to the news – however, the single currency then staged a substantial recovery following the later clarification that Renzi will not be resigning straight away. Instead it seems that Renzi will be waiting until later on in 2017 at the next Italian budget before doing so.

Much like when Theresa May took power and said Article 50 would wait until 2017 at the earliest, the Euro has benefited from the same buffer period afforded to the Pound.

The rest of this week will be governed by the evolving situation in the Supreme Court which is currently being streamed live, and markets will be reacting to each turn of phrase and change in momentum in the arguments given by solicitors.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a buying Euro requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer to maximise your return on your Sterling holdings and to minimize your exposure to a volatile marketplace.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for anyone planning a foreign currency transfer later this year.

What to expect for GBPEUR exchange rates this week (Dayle Littlejohn)

Today the Italian public are taking to the polls to decide whether more power should be given to parliament and taken away from the Senate.

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi believes money will be saved by making cuts to the Senate and the law making process will be faster and more decisive. The PM has made it clear that his position as PM will be unattainable if he loses the vote.

This has paved a way for anti-establishment party Five Star Movement led by Beppe Grillo. Mr Grillo will gain more power if Renzi resigns and he wants to hold a referendum in regards to keeping the euro, as many Italians are fed up that the economy is stagnant.

The polls are suggesting the result will be close however there is a good chance a no vote will occur which will lead to the Prime Ministers resignation. If this is the case I expect the Euro will continue to lose value tomorrow and therefore GBPEUR exchange rates will break through 1.20.

However Brexit negotiations early next year will put pressure on the pound and I believe quarter one is going to be a tough quarter for sterling. If you have euros to buy before UK Prime Minister Theresa May triggers Article50 in March I would suggest buying euros up front some point this month.

 

If you are converting GBPEUR in the upcoming months and are looking to achieve competitive rates of exchange whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you along with the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

Will Sterling get stronger against the Euro after the Italian referendum? (Tom Holian)

Pound Euro exchange rates are now trading at their best level to buy Euros in 3 months after the Pound recovered against all major currencies this week.

On Thursday Brexit secretary David Davis spoke out about the single market and suggested that he may look to make payments to the EU even after we have left in order to keep rights to the single market. With the tone of a soft Brexit becoming more likely this helped the Pound to make the gains this week particularly against the Euro.

Tomorrow the Italians will hold their own referendum on constitutional reform in an attempt to organise their ailing banking sector. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has stated that he may resign if the vote doesn’t go his way and if he does end up resigning this could throw up another bout of political uncertainty and this could weaken the Euro causing Sterling to perhaps break past 1.20 if this happens.

During this year we have seen a change in the voting patterns of the public with firstly Brexit back in June and the Trump win last month. It appears as though there is a feeling of protest to the establishment and I would not be surprised to see the vote go wrong for Renzi tomorrow. Therefore, if you’re in the process of buying Euros this could be the catalyst that sends GBPEUR rates in an upwards direction.

Next week the government will be challenging the High Court ruling on Article 50 by going to the Supreme Court and although we may not get any answers until January I’m sure the rumours will be flying out over the next few days so next week is likely to be rather volatile for Sterling vs the Euro to say the least.

Having worked in the currency markets since 2003 I am confident that with my experience I can help you with the timing of your transfer as well as save you money when buying or selling Euros compared to using your own bank.

For a free quote please email me directly with details about the volume you’re looking to convert and the timescale involved and I look forward to hearing from you.

teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP/EUR spikes upward on hopes of a Soft Brexit, will the pair breach 1.20? (Joseph Wright)

The Sterling to Euro exchange rate spiked to a new 3 month high yesterday afternoon off the back of comments from David Davis, the Brexit Secretary.

Those that have been following the Pounds performance this year will be aware that any talk of or indications of a ‘Hard Brexit’ has resulted in Sterling weakness, and the opposite can be said regarding allusions towards a ‘Soft Brexit’.

When answering a question in the House of Commons yesterday Mr Davis suggested that the UK government may be willing to pay for access to the single market and this comment was met with positivity, as the Pound reached 1.1956 at it’s highest point.

The Pound entered December in bullish fashion and this was a continuation of how it performed in November after the currency gained around 7-8 cents through the month.

Those waiting for the right time to convert Pounds into Euros have been presented with a substantially better trading level than they would have been if they made the deal a month before.

At our brokerage we’re able to offer commercial exchange rates meaning that the rates we offer are closer to the inter-bank level than those offered by typical high street banks/providers.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Sterling Euro hits 3 month high on single market comments (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates hit a 3 month high during yesterday’s trading session breaking through 1.19 on the Interbank level after comments from Brexit secretary David Davis that the UK may still make payments to the EU even after we’ve left in order to stay in the single market.

These comments really helped the Pound to gain vs all major currencies and hence the 3 month high to buy Euros yesterday.

This weekend could possibly result in even higher levels for GBPEUR exchange rates when the Italians hold their own referendum on constitutional reform on Sunday.

Matteo Renzi is looking to change the banking sector centrally but if the vote doesn’t go his way he has threatened to resign and if this does happen then this is likely to cause political uncertainty for one of the strongest nations in the Eurozone and therefore this could result in Euro weakness vs the Pound.

The Euro has really struggled vs the US Dollar hitting close to a decade low recently and owing to the Dollar strength this has helped the Pound to make gains vs the single currency.

Also next week the European Central Bank are due to meet to discuss their latest interest rate decision on Thursday and although I don’t expect a rate cut to come I think the central bank will discuss the problems with low inflation on the continent and this could lead to further Quantitative Easing being announced which could see GBPEUR rates go in an upwards direction.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you bank beating exchange rates when buying or selling Euros but also help you with the timing of your transfer.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to buy or sell Euros then please email me for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk