Monthly Archives: February 2017

Will GBPEUR rise or fall in March?

I expect the pound to Euro rate will both rise and fall in March as we face some interesting developments in the latest political and economic situations in the UK and also Europe. The triggering of Article 50 and the French and Dutch elections will all have a significant bearing on the market where we could see the rates rising and falling according to the prevailing sentiments in the market. If you have a question or query over the markets then making sense of the next few weeks is sensible in my opinion as we seek to establish some base for the future.

The pound could well come under pressure once Article 50 has been triggered which would see the rates falling to potentially 1.2-1.13 at the extreme. The converse argument is that actually, the market is more than likely to rise once Article 50 is triggered since this will give us some certainty over the Brexit and will give us some clarity over just what is around the corner for the UK. If you have a transfer involving the pound or Euro being prepared for this big event is vital to understanding the market and being able to take advantage of any improvements.

The Euro is likely to come under real pressure from the uncertainty relating to the French and Dutch elections which take place on the 15th March (Dutch) and French elections on the 23rd April and 7th May. Most commentators expect the Euro to experience further weakness from these events even if ultimately the likelihood is that neither of the danger candidates actually win.

If you would like more information at no cost or obligation please don’t hesitate to contact me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

GBP/EUR Rates Retract During Monday Trading (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have fallen during Monday’s trading, with the pair hitting 1.1709 at today’s low.

Sterling has hit something of a glass ceiling over recent days, as it struggles to make a sustained impact towards 1.20 under the current market conditions.

The EUR found support around 1.18 and whilst the single currency also finds itself under pressure due to political and social unrest across the region, the on-going uncertainty surrounding Brexit continues to handicap any major advances for GBP.

The markets have also likely reacted to a report that Scotland seem to be edging closer to a second independence referendum, with many North of the border seemingly keen to remain part of the EU following the UK’s decision to leave.

The House of Lords are still debating the governments Brexit bill and any amendments they wish to make would have to be sent back to the House of Commons. Although we have yet to hear any indication that this will occur, any delay by the House of Lords would likely push back the triggering of Article 50, which will officially start the process of leaving the single member state.

Much of the current market sentiment is being driven by how the UK economy will perform over the coming months. Whilst Sterling has certainly gained a foothold following its downturn, there are still many unanswered questions regarding how we will facilitate our exit from the EU and what deal will be in place once we do?

There has already been some concerning figures mentioned by the European Commissioner, who stated that the UK will be penalised 50 billion for leaving the single market. This is hardly news which is likely to boost investor confidence in the UK economy moving forward, so it’s no real surprise to see Sterling’s recent upturn halted rather abruptly.

Personally I would not be gambling on any major advances for the Pound in the short-term and I would look to protect Sterling’s recent gains.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, then we can help you navigate this turbulent market by keeping clients up to speed with all the latest developments regarding Brexit and beyond.

If you would like us to monitor the market for you ahead of a currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Could the Netherlands drop the Euro? (Tom Holian)

Dutch politicians have recently voted to hold a parliamentary enquiry to discuss its membership of the Eurozone and its use of the single currency.

There appears to be more scepticism towards the single currency and when you think we have already had the Brexit vote of last year could we be seeing s shift in the power towards more populist parties?

The Dutch are due to go to the polls next month and the French will begin their process in April and it appears as though Marine Le Pen is gaining more popularity in recent weeks.

Geert Wilders who is the far-Right politician in the Netherlands is currently leading the polls and he has promised to hold a referendum as part of his campaign.

Arguably the French election is more important as to who wins and if Marine Le Pen gets into power we could see some Euro weakness ahead as this would demonstrate a political swing towards a real change culturally in France.

At the moment the Pound is struggling to make any real gains against the Euro owing to the uncertainty surrounding the issue of Article 50 and even though the talks are due to begin at some point next month it has not yet been made entirely clear as to what will happen once negations to leave the European Union begin.

The Pound to Euro rate hit the highest rate to buy Euros during the week but failed to hold onto its gains by Friday so anyone looking to buy Euros in the short term may wish to take advantage of these small windows of opportunity,

If you are in the process of buying a house abroad or transferring currency for living expenses and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for further information or for a free quote when buying or selling Euros and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP EUR Slides from Highest Point this Year (James Lovick)

The pound continues to try and push higher against the Euro although there is clearly some resistance at these higher levels with sudden drops lower becoming the norm. Rates for GBP EUR broke through 1.19 earlier in the week although now levels are sitting just below 1.1850.

The UK received a welcome boost after UK mortgage data from the British Bankers Association (BBA) arrived stronger than expected. Mortgage approvals hit a one year highlighting that there is still activity in the sector. Across the country this is clearly the case and good news for the economy although my personal view would suggest we have now seen the top of the London market. There may be changes to be seen in the coming months and this may start to reflect in a weaker pound.

Next week should be particularly interesting as the Brexit bill will be discussed in the House of Lords again, but this time in considerably more detail. In my view things are unlikely to be held up but any sign that Brexit will be delayed could see some short term weakness in sterling exchange rates.

Meanwhile any political developments in France over the weekend are likely to have a direct impact on the price of the Euro. National Front presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has been shown to be performing better in the polls although her campaign has also been marred with scandal.

There is a chance that marine Le pen could become the next President of France and this would generally be negative for Euro exchange rates. The fact that she has outlined in her polices a return to the French Franc whilst also offering the people of France a referendum on EU membership could help see some good opportunities for those clients looking to sell Euros.

If you would like further information on sterling or Euro exchange rates and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Will the prospect of a Marine Le Pen Presidential win in France boost the Pound’s value? (Joseph Wright)

Up until yesterday afternoon the GBP/EUR pair had struggled to break above the 1.18 mark, but yesterday Sterling surged all the way up to 1.19 at one stage after benefiting from a weakening Euro.

The Euro weakened across the board yesterday afternoon after far-right French Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen gained further traction in recent opinion polls, with the candidate now a realistic candidate for the Presidency after becoming a favourite.

Moving forward I expect her increase in popularity to weigh on the Euro’s value as she has previously outlined plans to withdraw France from the Eurozone. Moreover she has also suggested that France stops using the Euro and reinstates the French Franc. Should these plans materialise it would surely leave the door open for other Eurozone nations to follow suit which would be detrimental for the Euros value, and the potential of this taking place is already weighing on the Euros value.

Another reason the GBP/EUR exchange rate may see a boost is the UK economy has been posting some impressive economic figures, with the Bank of England hiking the UK’s growth prospects this year and next.

If you wish to be kept up to date with GBP/EUR exchange rates related news do feel free to register with us for updates.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

GBP/EUR Where Next? (Daniel Johnson)

House of Lords – Brexit Bill Update

Th Brexit bill is now in the hands of the House of Lords. It is looking likely that there will be no significant amendments to the bill and it will shortly be passed up the ladder for royal approval. Lord Lamont yesterday urged peers not to appose the bill and undermine the UK’s negotiation position. We have seen GBP/EUR up to 1.19 this morning but is now falling back to the mid 1.18s. If you are buying Euros and only have a short term time scale I would consider performing a tranche of your requirement at current levels.

There are some key issues that should addressed, but I think there would be a public out cry from leave voters if there was any delay in the triggering of Brexit. Sterling would also so suffer.

Marine Le Pen gains in the polls

We have also seen Euro weakness as it seems there is an increasing chance of Marine Le Pen gaining power.  Froincois Fillon’s position as front runner to take the French Presidency is now a distant memory following accusations he has employed his wife in senior position and has paid a substantial sums for work that has not been done with tax payers money. If Le Pen gains power, her far-right party may well call for a referendum. Political uncertainty weaken the currency in question at the best of times, but the French election could really hurt the Euro.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you would like my help you can e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I will look at your individual situation and provide a strategy to suit your needs. If you already have a currency provider I will provide a comparison and I am very confident I will be able to show a significant saving. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Pound to Euro exchange rates see improvement as we wait for news from House of Lords (Joshua Privett)

Pound to Euro exchange rates today have been seeing marginal improvements for the second consecutive day as we wait to hear further news on the current climate of the Brexit negotiations.

The House of Lords are currently debating the feasibility of the Brexit Bill in its current state. Much of the recent improvement on the Pound on the currency markets can be directly linked to developments on this Brexit Bill over the past few months and we may see a similar movement over the next 24 hours.

The peers are currently debating the current state of the Bill and deciding whether to add amendments to it, which will then be passed back to the Commons for approval.

Whilst we are already seeing fiery language from both sides of the debate, with those looking to amend this bill with caveat’s such as mandatory Parliamentary consultation every three months labelling such actions as ‘sensible’ coming up against views from supporters that their attempts to delay the bill at ‘anti-democratic’.

Whatever your politics, markets seem to be agreeing with the former. Like any project, people are happier with expected performance if there is scheduled oversight. Currency markets seem to be taking a similar outlook, with any suggestions of Parliamentary consultation producing a very visible rally for Sterling – and has done regularly since November’s Judicial Court decision stated that Parliament had to be consulted to enact Article 50.

The rally on the Pound suggests that markets are expecting a fairly favourable result in the House of Lords, and should this come through, the ‘resistance level’ of 1.18 which Pound to Euro rates have struggled to break through since January may come under pressure if there is a surge in support for Sterling.

With this expected boost Euro sellers may be wise to move sooner rather than later to avoid being ‘caught out’ with this news, but I appreciate that your plans will likely depend on the availability of your funds and the timescales you have to work with.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, therefore a short conversation could save you a significant sum on an upcoming transfer.

If you wish to call me directly – simply call 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to me, Joshua.

Sterling Uncertainty on Second Day in the House of Lords (James Lovick)

The pound is likely to see additional volatility this morning after the bank of England Governor Mark Carney makes a speech. His comments can drive sterling exchange rates considerably and any mention of future interest rate policy is likely to impact on the price of sterling accordingly.

Sterling has come under some pressure after disappointing retail sales released last week although there is still a fair amount of support for the pound. UK GDP numbers are released tomorrow and this has the p[potential to be a big market mover. A stable or even positive figure should only help support the pound tomorrow.

Meanwhile the House of Lords will be scrutinising the Brexit Bill for the second day running where it is expected that some members will look to make adjustments to the bill. UK Prime Minister Theresa May sat in the House or Lords yesterday to monitor the debates in a sign that there is plenty riding on this outcome – It is very rare indeed that a Prime Minister will sit and observe the Lords. Any hold up of Brexit in the Lords could see the pound come under renewed pressure as the path for Britain would become considerably less clear and may potentially limit what UK Prime Minister is looking to achieve.

Meanwhile the outlook is looking more optimistic that Greece will be able to make its next debt repayment in July although a meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde could create uncertainty for the single currency. Any agreement between these parties to include Greece is likely to see the Euro strengthen.

If you would like further information on sterling or Euro exchange rates and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling under pressure owing to lacklustre economic data (Tom Holian)

Pound to Euro rates have fallen towards the end of the week after seeing GBPEUR exchange rates recently hit 6 week highs to buy Euros with Sterling.

The fall began on Wednesday with the release of UK Average Earnings which showed a fall and the drop was exacerbated by Friday’s release of lower than expected UK Retail Sales data.

Retail Sales have now hit a 3 year low and this has supported Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s claims that the UK economy could be negatively affected by last year’s Brexit vote.

The first estimate of fourth quarter UK GDP is due out on Wednesday morning and this will be a key data release to influence what happens next to Sterling vs Euro rates.

GDP has been relatively positive in the previous two quarters but if recent Retail Sales are an indication that things slowed down during the final quarter of 2016 this could cause real problems for the Pound’s outlook against the single currency.

As yet it is still not clear as to when Article 50 will be triggered. Uncertainty is something that currency does not respond well to and until we get some clarity as to what the government’s real plans are to leave the European Union I think Sterling will remain under pressure.

Longer term however I think the outlook for Sterling is positive against the Euro as politically we could be in for numerous changes on the continent as Holland and France are due to go to the polls in the next couple of months.

As we saw in 2016 there appears to be a voice of antiestablishment and a search for a change to the current system and if we see these changes occur in Europe then I expect this to result in longer term Euro weakness.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Sterling Recovers after Weaker Retails Sales Data (James Lovick)

The pound has seen mixed signals against the Euro this week having seen some good gains before slipping towards the end of the week. The pound fell this morning following weak UK retail sales numbers which fell in January. The report suggested that higher fuel and food prices were reducing demand and that the numbers are the weakest performance since November 2013. Although the pound fell following the release sterling did recover in afternoon trade breaking over 1.17 again.

With the Brexit bill expected to pass through the House of Lords next week after the half term parliamentary recess there is likely to be considerable volatility as the markets react to any news

In a precursor to the politics next week Ex-Prime Minister Tony Blair has stated that he would like a second referendum on Brexit. This is likely to be hotly debated over the weekend and it could signal that there could be more to come next week when this Brexit bill passes through the Lords.

In my view then any amendments to include a second referendum on the final deal could be damaging for the pound. There is a general view that a second referendum would not allow Britain to gain a good and fair trade deal with the European Union. The timing of this statement from Tony Blair is unlikely to be coincidental ahead of next week’s political drama.
Those clients looking to buy to sell Euros are likely to see considerable volatility in these coming weeks and there are likely to be some good opportunities for buyers and sellers alike.

If you would like further information on sterling or Euro exchange rates and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Euro exchange rates beginning to rise ahead of UK Retail sales figures (Joshua Privett)

Pound to Euro exchange rates have, despite heavy movements daily, closed most days basically where we began, with GBP/EUR still hovering around the 1.17 mark.

This morning retail sales figures for the UK will be released at 9:30, and expectations are already for positive figures which are translating into a fair rally for the Pound.

Initial retail sales figures showed an unusually sharp drop for the beginning of January, but new figures to be released this morning suggest a sharp turnaround for their fortunes.

Retail sales figures are a strong measure for consumer confidence in the UK economy and their willingness to spend, and, as such, tend to have a heavy sway on Sterling value. If the figures come in positively, in this case it should trend well for the Pound.

Without much other information out of note today, this should be the focal point of the marketplace. Positive news may even carry into the weekend where markets close. Given that 1.18 has been a ceiling that the Pound has struggled to break, opportunities today may be wise to be seen as an opportunity, and I am well places to help you seize any peaks which emerge.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, therefore a short conversation could save you a significant sum on an upcoming transfer.

If you wish to call me directly – simply call 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to me, Joshua.

Will Sterling rise against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

Which way will Sterling Euro rates go in the run up to the trigger Article 50 has been asked by my clients many times already and at the moment it is difficult to say.

What is clear is that we had huge movements between GBPEUR rates when the Brexit vote took place and some may assume that we could see similar drops in exchange rates.

However, the Brexit vote came as a big shock to financial markets which is why we saw such falls for Sterling against the Euro but with Article 50 it is clear that it will happen at some point in March so I think this time round the Pound is ready but I think ultimately rates will hinge on whether the UK will opt for a hard or a soft Brexit.

Economic data is rather limited today so with UK Retail Sales due tomorrow morning we could see a rather busy and volatile end to the week.

Generally speaking Retail Sales have been rather positive for the UK so any more of the same could result in GBPEUR rates going in an upwards direction.

Clearly the Pound to Euro rate is being dominated by what is happening politically and for the time being GBPEUR rates will be determined with regards Article 50 but longer term when we have the French elections taking place i think we could see Sterling make some gains as it is unclear as to which party and leader will win.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you better exchange rates than using your own bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer of currency.

If you would like to buy or sell Euros and would like further information or a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Alternatively visit the website directly www.currencies.co.uk

 

Will the Pound to Euro exchange rate struggle to break through 1.18? (Joseph Wright)

It’s been an interesting 24 hours for the GBP/EUR exchange rate after some key economic data releases out of both the UK and the Eurozone.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate did break through 1.18 yesterday morning as investors hoped for a high inflation reading out of the UK for the month of January, but as the figure released came out below analysts expectations the Pound was sold off and almost fell below 1.17 at the inter-bank level.

The reason for the fall is there is less likely to be an interest rate hike from the Bank of England whilst inflation readings aren’t surpassing market expectations.

Now that foreign exchange markets appear to have accepted that the UK will go ahead with a ‘Hard Brexit’ and that it’s likely to begin next month, economic data is beginning to have more of an impact on Sterling’s value whereas prior to the UK PM, Theresa May outlining the governments plans it was mostly sentiment that drove the Pounds value.

Interestingly the Pound has since recovered from yesterday’s fall and the GBP/EUR pair is currently trading around the 1.18 mark once again. It will be interesting to see whether this level will act as a resistance, and I think any readers with an upcoming currency requirement involving the converting of Pounds into Euros may wish to consider the current levels as we could see a fall in the Pounds value as the Brexit begins.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

GBPEUR falls due to UK inflation (Dayle Littlejohn)

Speculation has been rising within the UK this year, that the Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates towards the end of the 2017 due to rising inflation. Inflation has been on the rise due a weaker pound since the EU referendum vote and the bond purchasing program set out by the central bank.

Inflation numbers this morning continued to climb however not at the pace that speculators had anticipated and this led to a sell off off the pound earlier this morning. However the pound has recovered throughout the day. For your euro buys and sellers, if you had been in contact trading at the best points of the day would have generated you an extra cent.

Looking ahead the UK are awaiting the decision from the House of Lords to whether Theresa May can trigger Article50 and therefore start the process of leaving the European Union in March. My personal opinion is that this event will cause sterling weakness and GBPEUR exchange rates will fall therefore making euros more expensive to buy. On a positive note this could be the spike in the market that euro sellers are looking for.

If you reading this website for the first time as you need to convert GBPEUR, feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

If you are already using a brokerage and would like to a free quote email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands.

Common clients I help on a daily basis are Sole traders, MD or FD of a company, property buyers and sellers. If you are one of the three and are currently using the bank to transfer your currency you need to be made aware that you could be saving money!

Will GBPEUR hit 1.20 this week?

The pound to Euro rate is looking very attractive at the moment from a Euro buyers perspective as we get closer to understanding further just what Brexit negotiations the UK are aiming for. The Euro is weaker as investors are concerned over just what lies around the corner politically and fresh Greek debt concerns raise their head. Today is some very important UK economic data which could well help trigger some further improvements for the pound against the Euro.

If you are looking at the market this week there is lots of UK economic data which could move the market including the release of the latest UK Inflation data. The rate of Inflation is rising which is weighing on the Bank of England to perhaps consider raising interest rates in the future. As Inflation rises the common tool to combat higher Inflation is raising interest rates. Will the rising Inflation lead to fears over a decline in UK living standards or will a rise lead to investors placing bets the UK could raise interest rates sooner than previously hoped?

After this data at 09.30 we then have Eurozone data on GDP at 10.00am. All in all I think the Euro is going to err on the weaker side which will continue to present better opportunities for Euro buyers but of course there is the danger of the pound slipping with so much uncertainty over the Brexit looming. If you have a transfer to consider buying pounds or euros in the coming weeks then I would be looking very closely at what is happening politically in both the UK and Eurozone.

I am very confident I can help you with any currency transfers you will need to make by saving you money over other companies plus providing some useful information as to what might happen. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Rallies Following Co-op Announcement (Matthew Vassallo)

With no economic data for the UK today, the major talking point was the Co-op banks decision to put itself up for sale. This was welcomed by the Bank of England (BoE), who will continue to monitor the banks “financial resilience” over the coming months.

The Co-op has struggled ever since its near collapse in 2013 but with interest from TSB, there is hope that it can build strength and become a cornerstone in the UK’s banking sector over the coming years.

Whilst talk of failing banks is hardly likely to inspire investors this may well be taken as appositive by the markets, due to the hope of increased stability in the future and this news may well have helped support the Pounds value yesterday and for the coming days.

Currency markets will react to key economic developments and as such any stability and growth in the UK’s financial sector is likely to support the Pound and we may see an improvement over the coming weeks as the situation evolves.

Looking at the markets and the Pound has made gains over the past couple of weeks, with the Pound finding support against a host of major currencies.

The recent market volatility looks set to continue however, with UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit still awaiting approval by the House of Lords.

The Pound gained support following the decision by MP’s to ratify it through the House of Commons and whilst the general consensus is this will be backed up by the House of Lords, a level of uncertainty still remains. It’s for this reason that I have been suggesting to clients holding Sterling that they look for short-term opportunities, rather than hold out for long-term sustainable improvement.

Yes, there is no doubt the Pound has gained a foothold in the market but this is not the first time we’ve seen it make a move towards 1.20, only for market confidence to slip and the Pound to retract. This leads me to the conclusion that the UK economy remains extremely fragile in the eyes of investors and it won’t take a lot for this confidence to be shaken and the Pound will likely suffer as a result.

If you have an upcoming Sterling or Euro currency transfer to make and are concerned about the current market instability, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact us on 0044 1494 725 353 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk and can answer any queries you have about the current market trends & forecasts.

 

Could Sterling improve against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro rates have ended the week close to a high after the release of better than expected GDP data as well as positive manufacturing and industrial production data but have still struggled to make any significant gains vs the Euro recently.

The Pound is still being weighed down by the uncertainty caused by Article 50 and at the moment although the government look to be in control there are undoubtedly more obstacles ahead prior to the triggering of Article 50 next month.

However, although Article 50 will be the main factor in determining what happens to Sterling Euro exchange rates over the next few weeks after that the focus will turn to what is happening politically in Europe.

Political uncertainty causes problems for a currency and with the Dutch and French due to go to the polls in March and May respectively then I think we could see problems in the second quarter for the Euro.

Therefore, if you’re looking at selling Euros in the next few weeks now may be close to your best chance.

Indeed, according to some reports we could see the Euro lose up to 10% of its value if Marine Le Pen gets elected.

Le Pen is in favour of leaving the European Union and the Dutch are also voicing a lot of discontent about the European Union so if we see some political change on the next continent over the next few months then I think this will be Sterling’s real chance of longer term recovery.

In the short term UK inflation data is due out on Tuesday which could cause volatility so if you’re considering making a currency transfer then this is likely to have a big impact on GBPEUR rates so make sure you’re prepared to move quickly.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP EUR Supported after Upbeat UK GDP (James Lovick)

Sterling exchange rates continue to hold at these recent higher levels after a solid week of good gains. Rates for GBP EUR are now sitting at 1.1750 which is presenting anyone that needs to buy Euros with some better buying opportunities. It is only 1 month to go now before Article 50 will be invoked under UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s diary for Brexit.

The Gross Domestic Product figure from the national Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) arrived steady at 0.7% showing no sign of any slowdown in economic growth. There has been little market reaction to the news and it is most likely that it is the overall uncertainty of Brexit which is preventing the pound from pushing higher. The NIESR is an excellent precursor to the official GDP numbers and it is encouraging that there has not been a slide lower which should help keep the pound supported.

In the Eurozone Greece has once again started to dominate the headlines and its inability to reform and difficulty in making its debt repayments could become another problem for the Euro. The Euro really suffered in the Summer of 2015 and it was only when Greece accepted another bailout the Euro started to gain.

On the one hand Brexit is keeping the pressure on the pound but it is my view that once the negotiations get underway the pound could actually perform well against the Euro when considering both the issues of Greece and the EU elections which are just around the corner.

Clients needing to buy or sell Euros would be wise to keep a very close eye on these political developments as the exchange rates will be directly impacted. This is where we can assist in helping you time your foreign exchange transfer.

If you would like further information on sterling or Euro exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Euro exchange rates may see minor boost before the weekend (Joshua Privett)

Yesterday on the currency markets was a fairly quiet day compared to the excitement the preceding days has brought us on buying Euro rates of exchange.

This week saw the culmination of months of debate in Parliament which saw Sterling to Euro exchange rates fly upwards and cascade downwards on numerous occasions. This debate is surrounding the ability for the Government to act unilaterally without the consent of Parliament in the Brexit negotiations.

To eventually pass the ‘Brexit bill’ the Government had to concede on a few key points involving the Leave process, namely that Parliament would get an opportunity to vote on any final Brexit deal put to the table once the negotiations finished.

Why does this trend positively for the Pound? Like any project, and the Brexit is certainly the biggest the government has ever faced, oversight to make sure that no wrong turns are made which are difficult to reverse, or if severe decisions are made, are received well by third parties looking on in negotiations. In this case third parties are financial markets.

This explain the rally for the Pound really since the latter part of January.

The final Brexit Bill was voted on yesterday, and it seems the momentum from this story is beginning to evapourate.

However, some manufacturing and industrial production figures to be released fairly shortly may provide a short-term boost for the Pound.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, therefore a short conversation could save you a significant sum on an upcoming transfer.

Brexit – Still the Key Market Mover (Daniel Johnson)

Where next for Sterling?

GBP/EUR is still very unpredictable and is susceptible to high levels of volatility. Data releases that normally cause significant movement are proving to have little impact. Brexit negotiations are clearly the main force behind current buoyancy levels on GBP/EUR. UK PM Theresa May yesterday was given the go ahead to trigger article 50 following Labour minister, Harriet Harmen’s attempt to make an amendment to the Brexit bill. The change was for EU nationals to have their rights protected if they are already current residents in the UK.

The bill should now go through without too much trouble from the House of Lords. I would expect a far more thorough plan for exit from the EU to be published shortly. The markets react particularly badly to uncertainty, I feel a new white paper document detailing thoroughly exit plans could add certainty to the market and Sterling could rally. Trade negotiations are pivotal to the strength of the pound. Both Trump and Australian PM, Malcolm Turnbull have been forthcoming in regards to striking a deal. This is without a doubt good news for Sterling. I am however dubious of the current two year target for a full exit. Trade negotiations are anything but simple, the quickest the US has  ever tied up a trade agreement with another country is four years.

Later in the year things could well turn sour for the Euro, despite  small improvements in inflation there is still a lot to worry about for Euro sellers.

Three general elections are due to take place in the Netherlands , France and Germany. All have the possibility of a far right party gaining power. Political uncertainty, historically weakens the currency in question. As does a potential referendum. Italian banks are in need of bailouts due to excessive lending to the tune of over €360bn and lets not forget Greece’s debt crisis.

If you have to purchase Euros short- medium term, you will need expert assistance to maximise your return. I will provide the most competitive spread and a trading strategy to suit your needs, with no obligation to trade. Feel free to e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

Daniel Johnson

Foreign Currency Direct