Monthly Archives: August 2017

Sterling flat despite positive words from a key Bank of England figure (Joseph Wright)

Sterling has failed to see a boost to it’s value this morning despite a member of the Bank of England suggesting that its time for an interest rate hike in the UK.

The member is Michael Saunders and his comments won’t of come as a surprise to many after his votes to raise the rate in the last two voting meetings. The current Pound to Euro exchange rate is sitting at 1.0850 after hitting a new 8-year low earlier this week due to Brexit uncertainties.

There have been a number of predictions for the Pound to Euro rate to hit parity within the next year and at the moment we’re not far from this level as Brexit fears continue to weigh on sentiment surrounding the UK economy. The fears mostly surround how the UK is yet to agree on the final Brexit bill and also the European Commission becoming frustrated with a lack of clarity from the UK regarding it’s plans.

A little later this morning there will be the release of Eurozone Inflation levels for August which could potential move the markets, those following the GBP/EUR rate should keep an eye on releases like this and we can help keep our clients updated if they wish.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBPEUR bounces back but for how long?

The pound has bounced back against the Euro today largely because of the swing on EURUSD as investor concerns over the US dollar fade. EURUSD has risen to almost 1.21 yesterday but it is now back to 1.19 representing a series of profit taking and market fluctuation which has presented some improved levels for Euro buyers. Tomorrow is a very busy day for the Euro with all important Unemployment and Inflation data due out. The pound could find further form against the Euro in my opinion, not because of any fundamental reasons, eg news but more positioning as traders look to take profits on existing trades.

Much of the currency market’s movements are to do with speculators who essentially move money to make money. That doesn’t mean one man trading for personal gain at home, but hedge funds, banks, investment companies and pensions funds. Much of their work will be to manage FX positioning, essentially trying to make money from the market in a speculative manner. This will account for a large degree of the movement on the currency market so trying to understand this thinking helps explain the movements.

With GBPEUR having moved down below 1.10 it will find it increasingly difficult to rise above 1.10 and we could now struggle to see rates rise back above 1.10. What might be more likely is the market and speculators trying to push the level down to parity. If you need to buy Euros with pounds you could easily find this gets more expensive over the long run. However tomorrow or at present could offer a good short term opportunity.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Could Brexit send Sterling lower against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

The fears caused by the Brexit talks continue to weigh heavily on the Pound vs the Euro which is now trading at its lowest level to buy Euros with Pounds for 8 years.

The previous time the GBPEUR rates were lower than they are at the moment was back in 2008 during the credit crunch era when Sterling crashed against all major currencies including the Euro.

A lot of the large banks have been predicting that the Pound could hit parity vs the Euro and at the moment I am finding it difficult to work out how the Pound will be able to recover against the Euro whilst the uncertainty surrounding Brexit continues.

Indeed, the Euro has been trading at 18 month highs against the US Dollar as the suggestion is that the European Central Bank may look at tapering their current Quantitative Easing programme which could see further strength for the Euro vs the Pound.

In the short term we may see some small spike for Sterling owing to profit taking but medium to longer term could see GBPEUR rates lower than current levels.

 

A lot of my clients have been using a forward contract which allows you to secure an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit and this has worked out very well for many of my Euro buyers over the last few weeks.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

GBP EUR Falls to Near 8 Year Low

The pound continues to remain on the back foot as we end a week where Brexit uncertainties have largely hampered the pound. GBP EUR has fallen to a near 8 year low this week although the pound has found a degree of support as we approach the Bank Holiday weekend. Next week could bring new opportunities as politics start coming back in to full force and with the Brexit negotiations recommencing. Any positive dialogue between Britain and the EU could see an improvement in the pounds fortunes although I wouldn’t hold your breath just yet. To date EU negotiatior Michel Barnier has reinforced his view that the divorce bill must be established before any future trade deal can be discussed which isn’t boding well for the pound.

The Jackson Hole Symposium will be concluded today and speeches from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen are widely tipped to create market volatility for the Euro, pound and US dollar in particular. Any mention of Mario Draghi tapering the asset purchasing scheme could see additional strength for the Euro although much of this should be priced into the market by now.

Another volatile period also awaits any clients with a requirement to buy Euros or sell Euro. The German election in September could see a period of volatility with some weakness for the Euro be expected as the election looms. However it is highly likely that that German Chancellor Angela Merkel will end up serving a fourth term which could bring about additional gains for the single currency.

If you would like further information on sterling or Euro exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Can GBP/EUR Recover Yesterdays Losses Anytime Soon? (Ben Fletcher)

Yesterday the GBP/EUR rate dropped to 1.081 which is the lowest level in over 8 years. Over the past 3 weeks there has been a continuous weakening of Sterling and this has culminated in the rate reaching record lows. The big question now remains is will the rate continue to fall or rise?

The basic argument would be that there is likely to be further weakness simply as the trend looks set to continue. The Eurozone is showing increasing strength through strong data and this isn’t showing signs of changing anytime soon. Secondly there are current expectations that the European Central Bank’s economic stimulus could be close to being reduced, showing further confidence in the economy. Tomorrow the Head of the ECB Mario Draghi will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium in the US and this should provide further insight into the central banks position.

From a Sterling perspective the Brexit uncertainty could have finally caught up with investors. Whilst the Government are looking to release economic white papers to provide clarity on their position, there is no solid results coming from the Brexit talks. One potential avenue for Sterling against the Euro could be some concerns that the GBP/EUR rate is dropping to low. The Eurozone could start to see a reduction in exports if the price of goods increase to much with the current rate. We therefore may see Mario Draghi or other ECB members try to talk down the currency by holding off any economic changes.

If you do have a question with regards to my forecast please get in touch. When you come to moving large sums of money a movement of a cent can often relate to a significant difference in your returns. Helping you formulate a strategy could make sure you’re in the best position to exchange currency when the market is in your favor, please contact me at brf@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Euro rate in focus as it’s trading at an 8-year low, will the sell-off continue? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling is continuing to come under pressure this morning after breaching the 1.09 mark during yesterday’s trading session.

The breach of 1.09 has continued this morning as the pair are now trading at their lowest levels since 2009, with 1.0868 the lowest level the pair have hit so far.

This comes at a time where risk appetite worldwide is on the decline after US President Donald Trump’s threat to end the NAFTA agreement and shut down the US government if he doesn’t receive funding for the wall he plans on building along the boarder of Mexico.

There have also been a number of forecasts from major financial institutions recently suggesting the Pound could fall as low as 1 for 1 with the Euro, with HSBC, Morgan Stanley and Citi all making this same prediction for the pair in 2018.

Should these predictions comes true then it may be worth looking into the current exchange rates if you’re planning a large GBP to EUR transfer as there is still some distance to go should they be correct.

Tomorrow at 9.30am there will be the release of UK GDP data for the month of July, and there could be movement between GBP/EUR if this figure is released some distance from its expectation.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPEUR rise hit parity?

I do not believe the pound can fall below parity but we might learn the coming weeks and months about just how likely it is. With the trends that seem in motion at present the outlook for the pound remains very bleak and the outlook for the Euro appears very positive. The Euro is beating the pound on many fronts most notably in the political stakes but also the economic ones too. In fact if you are looking to see the pound rise against the Euro I think you are really struggling to gauge just where any good news will come from!

Most likely for the pound could of course be the prospect of some good news for Brexit, but the Euro might weaken too. The thing with Brexit is that the likelihood of any good news seems quite far off in the distance. In fact there might not be any good news for many years to give investors reasons to start backing the pound. The problem is too that with the Brexit, all the whilst we await further news on what is will actually mean, the UK economy suffers, so does the pound and so does life for Euro buyers with pounds.

Consumers in the UK initially reacting on a wave of optimism to Brexit are now gently beginning to come to terms with the complexities. The seemingly free money racked up on loans for cars, shopping and entertaining themselves won’t just be available forever. Consumer spending has slowed as has business confidence. This is all weighing on the pound and with the German election in September seeming to point towards a Merkel victory, further Euro strength could be up ahead. Parity might not be precisely on the cards but lower rates than today seem likely!

If you have a transfer buying or selling the pound and Euro then making plans around the latest sentiments is key to avoiding unforeseen extra costs. If you wish to get the latest news and information on the market and your situation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for getting in touch and I look forward to hearing from you.

GBP EUR Rates Remain Near 7 Year Low

The pound remains close to a seven year low against the Euro this morning as uncertainties over both Brexit and the recent change of stance from the Bank of England keep the pressure on the pound. Although position papers from the government are being put forward with a total of twelve expected to be released in the coming weeks, the pound has struggled to climb higher over a lack of clarity of where Brexit will ultimately end up and whether a trade deal will or not be in place when Britain leaves the EU.

The Bank of England have also reduced the growth outlook for the UK economy and have signalled that there is unlikely to be a rate rise this year. The markets only a couple of months ago were beginning to price in the possibility of a rate hike in the Autumn of this year but this seems highly unlikely now. For any clients who are looking to sell Euros there is a great opportunity to be taken advantage of as things stand.

It’s not just the pound that is performing badly though which has helped see GBP EUR exchange rates fall to a seven year low. The recent improvement in the outlook for the Eurozone has helped strengthen the Euro. Stronger economic growth and also higher inflation have helped see the Euro make considerable gains against most of the major currencies including the pound.

The German election in September will certainly be one to watch as it could create added volatility for Euro exchange rates. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has a strong lead in the polls and is highly likely to win a fourth term which would be good news for Euro exchange rates.

Economic data is light as we end the week so focus will move to UK GDP data and inflation report hearings next week which could see the pound rally on stronger data.

If you would like further information on Euro exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Eurozone Inflation To Cause Volatility (Ben Fletcher)

This morning the latest Inflation data will be released for the Eurozone which should provide an indication as to what the European Central Bank will decide to do in the next few weeks. Many analysts at the moment believe the ECB will start to reduce the amount of economic stimulus as early as September however if the EU economic data is not strong then that’s less likely to happen.

The Euro has been putting significant pressure under Sterling with many investors choosing to back the single markets major currency. There has been considerable growth across the EU with output data at one of its highest in years and future confidence soaring. Most of this strength has come from France and Germany but there also appears to be optimism that the Greek and Italian economies will this year grow.

There is still the small issue of multi-billions worth of bailout funds and it seems incredibly unlikely that those funds will ever be paid back. The Greek pension fund has already been completely raided and the higher tax bracket is considerably over 60%, which makes you think if the economy doesn’t start to grow there is nothing more to give and no more room for squeezing.

Today with the general downward movement of the GBP/EUR I would not be surprised to see the 1.09 level tested.

I am in a position to help you execute a transfer and I am confident I can offer you the best rates. Therefore if you do have a question with regards to my forecast please get in touch. When it comes to moving large sums of money a movement of a cent can often relate to a significant difference in your returns. Helping you formulate a strategy could make sure you’re in the best position to exchange currency when the market is in your favor, please contact me Ben Fletcher at brf@currencies.co.uk

The number of GBP to EUR parity forecasts increases, will GBP/EUR hit 1.1 by the end of the year? (Joseph Wright)

The talk of Brexit negotiations beginning badly is having an impact on the Pounds value against all major currency pairs, but it appears that the GBP/EUR rate has been the biggest loser in all of this so far.

Recent comments from David Davis, the Brexit secretary have added fuel to the fire after he revealed that Michel Barnier ‘is getting quite cross with us’. Michel Barnier is the EU’s chief negotiator which just goes to show that the UK going to need to get a move on regarding its Brexit negotiation plans.

With there being less likelihood of an interest rate hike this year from the Bank of England now that inflation pressures have subsided there have been a number of major financial institutions forecasting parity between the Pound and the Euro in 2018.

In just the last week, Morgan Stanley, HSBC and now City Index have all made this prediction which gives those planning on making a large GBP to EUR transfer a decision to make as the rate is currently just below 1.10.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding the Pound to Euros price movements do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

What can we expect now for GBPEUR?

The pound to Euro rate has slipped from 1.1040 at the highest this morning to now 1.0948 at the lows. This is not good news for any clients buying Euros and the pain could be compounded even further tomorrow with the latest UK Unemployment information plus also the latest Wage Growth information. Markets will be looking closely to the latest news on the UK’s Unemployment situation to try and determine just what is around the corner in the coming weeks and months. Overall further sterling weakness cannot be ruled out!

If you are buying Euros with pounds some form of protection seems sensible as we prepare ourselves for further losses in the future. The pound looks like it could well improve on the back of any good news but so far there does not seem to be much of it around. If you are looking at the market from the current perspective it is all very sterling negative, in such a market all it can take is one piece of good news to suddenly change the picture.

I doubt tomorrow’s news will be this trigger but it is certainly something to be most aware of and for clients looking to buy or sell Euros with pounds to be conscious of. GBPEUR has been trading at the best rates for clients looking to sell Euros for pounds since 2011. This is an excellent reason for clients looking to sell Euros to by pounds to capitalise, whilst it might get better can you really afford to take the risk of missing out?

For more information on the best exchange rates and when to look at making your currency exchange please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. The pound is at a very important juncture against the Euro so making plans sooner than later is sensible in my opinion.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you!

Will the Pound fall lower than 1.10 over the next few days? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has remained under pressure against the Euro recently as the negative effects of Brexit appear to be gathering pace.

We are now ten years on from the credit crunch and over 10 years since the Bank of England last raised interest rates in the UK.

Trade Balance figures in the UK yesterday showed a big deficit for June and this is highlighting that the lack of investment and spending by businesses in light of the uncertainty caused by Brexit.

Manufacturing and industrial production data showed a rise but the overwhelming factor is that of Brexit which is causing problems for Sterling Euro exchange rates.

Credit ratings agency Moody’s has recently cut its outlook for consumer debt and has warned that high inflation combined with a falling in wages could cause a large exposure to the debt.

Next week on Tuesday UK inflation data is due out and I think if we see a figure lower than last month’s 2.6% then this could see GBPEUR rates fall below the support level of 1.10 going into the middle of next week.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of buying Euros then it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to secure an exchange rate for a future date with a small deposit.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP EUR Exchange Rates Find Support over 1.10

The pound has slipped in afternoon trade despite making some attempts at a rally earlier in the day. Sterling exchange rates have found support against the Euro at around 1.10 for GBP EUR.

A gloomy post Brexit outlook which is being portrayed by much of the media is not helping reassure the markets and ultimately British consumers. There are also concerns of a consumer slowdown as a result of higher inflation and there are some concerns in the construction and housing sectors which are helping push the pound lower although so far these are not that significant. The Bank of England reduced the growth outlook for the UK last week which has also taken the shine off sterling.

As a result those clients looking to sell Euros are seeing excellent trading prices which are still available. When parliament returns from the summer recess in September there is likely to be considerable market volatility for the pound. Discussions surrounding Brexit which have been held in private are expected to come into the public domain very shortly and this could have the effect of strengthening the price of the pound.

One of the reasons the pound is so weak against the Euro is because of the lack of detail as to what the future relationship between Britain and the UK will ultimately look like. In my view any detail offered here should only be seen as positive for the pound. Depending on what comes out there could be some better buying opportunities in the coming months. For those clients who need to buy Euros rates are struggling at present but the targets of 1.15 – 1.18 for GBP EUR should become available again. Anyone with a pending requirement would be wise to make contact to discuss your options and how to make the most of the weaker exchange rates which we are starting to become used to.

If you would like further information on GBP EUR Exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Euro at 10 month high against the Pound (Tom Holian)

Pound Euro exchange rates have continued to fall this week hitting support levels of 1.10 earlier this afternoon.

The Pound is really struggling caused by the uncertainty of Brexit and the recent downgrading of the UK’s growth forecast for both this year and next.

Earlier on today French Trade Balance came out much better than expected as did their Export figures which further highlighted the strength of the economy in the Eurozone.

Indeed, the Euro is now trading at its best level in almost 18 months against the US Dollar which is good news for anyone holding Euros at the moment.

If you’re in the process of selling a property in Europe but have not yet completed it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

This involves paying a small deposit and the remaining balance at a date that works for you. This means you know exactly how much Sterling you will get when the property completes and can be especially useful if you’re concerned as to what may happen to GBPEUR exchange rates in the weeks ahead.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Will the Pound continue to fall against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has crashed against the Euro during yesterday’s trading session after the Bank of England confirmed that interest rates will remain on hold for the 11th month running. The split this time round was 6-2 which was lower than June’s vote which was 5-3.

One of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee Kristin Forbes has left since the previous meeting and the incoming Silvana Tenreyo was unlikely to have caused a surprise.

The Bank of England have also downgraded the UK’s growth forecast for this year from 1.9% to 1.7% as well as cutting next year’s growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.6%.

This has led the Pound to fall against the Euro to its lowest rate since October 2016 and this is largely part to the Brexit discount currently on offer.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney has spoken out about the uncertainty caused by the Brexit and this is causing a lack of investment in the UK until a resolution is reached which is likely to take a long time.

One good thing for the British economy is that UK inflation appears to be falling at the moment from 2.9% to 2.6% but for the Pound this is not good news as it provides further support to keep interest rates low for a long period of time.

If you’re in the process of selling a property in Europe and would like to take advantage of these current low exchange rates to buy Pounds then feel free to get in touch.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP EUR Crashes after Bank of England Meeting (James Lovick)

Sterling exchange rates have fallen sharply against the Euro after the Bank of England Meeting earlier today. With rates having plunged by almost 1% levels for the GBP EUR pair are now sitting at 1.1065. Those clients looking to sell Euros have been presented with an excellent opportunity for converting Euros into pounds.

The Bank of England held interest rates at 0.25% as widely expected but there was a change in voting patterns. Only two members voted for an interest rate hike today which is one less than at the last meeting. Today saw a 6-2 split on the committee in favour of maintaining rates compared to a 5-3 split at the last meeting. Particular attention to Brexit was also given and the Bank stated that the uncertainty of both Brexit and Britain’s future trade relationship with the European Union is now starting to have a negative impact on the UK economy.

This all would suggest that the Bank of England are unlikely to be raising interest rates in the near future which should keep downward pressure on the price of sterling. Those clients looking t buy Euros may wish to consider moving sooner rather than later as the weaker outlook may result in further fall for the pound against the Euro.

Tomorrow sees little economic data from the EU and UK so focus moves to next weeks UK housing data. The UK hosing markets has become very topical of late with some commentators pointing to a cooling in prices which could signal problems in the future.

If you would like further information on sterling and Euro exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk