Monthly Archives: January 2018

Retail sales figures fail to impress this morning, positive brexit outlook still holding Sterling strong

We have just had the release of Retail Sales figures for the U.K a short while ago and unfortunately figures have failed to impress and fell short of analysts expectations.

Usually this would have hit the Pound fairly hard and we would have had Sterling weakness, however it does appear that we are currently witnessing a bout of positive vibes surrounding Brexit negotiations and progress and this is currently giving the Pound a bit of a boost.

My opinion at present is that I would not be surprised to see Sterling exchange rates have a good year, there is of course the potential banana skin that Brexit talks may suddenly take a turn for the worse and at that point the Pound may struggle, but in general things to appear to be ticking along fairly well, and due to this fact alone I think Sterling will reap the benefits of this.

The European Central Bank do have a part to play and should they move to completely cut back on their QE program and start to make more positive economic decisions then the Euro could still continue its fairly good start to the year.

One possible setback for the Euro is the Italian elections which are due on 4th March, these should bring uncertainty for the Euro as there is still quite a bit of uncertainty over the potential victor, so keep your eyes peeled for more news throughout February for this.

If you have a Sterling/Euro exchange to make (either buying or selling) in the coming days, weeks or months and you would like assistance not only on the timing of your transfer but also with achieving the very best rate of exchange too then I can help you personally.

Feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) by emailing me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back to you. Having now worked at the same foreign exchange brokerage for over a decade I am well placed to assist you and will be more than happy to help

What will happen on GBPEUR for the rest of January?

The pound to Euro rate has been trading in a very tight range for the last few weeks with a high to low variation of 1.12-1.1360. This is presenting a good time of consolidation for clients looking to buy and sell Euros to make plans surrounding better times to look at any currency exchanges. What is definite is that the rate will not stay like this forever and sooner or later we will see a change.

Key events will focus on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting next Thursday 25th January. Investors will be closely monitoring any changes we might see in the economic policy of the ECB which might see a shift on the Euro. Overall expectations for the Euro centre around the reduction in their QE program and possibly the prospect of raising interest rates.

The Bank of England will meet in February, general impressions are that the pound will continue to rise if they do raise interest rates but this might not be until much later in the year. The UK has now falling inflation which would actually see the pound falling as it removes the pressure on interest rate hikes.

GBPEUR has been trading in a range of 1.10-1.145 since October so the prospect of any major deviation from this is limited. I would personally be expecting GBPEUR to remain this kind of range for the end of January. Most prospects for the future focus on the outlook on the pound to Euro rates remaining at these more favourable levels for Euros buyers.

If you have a transfer to consider in the future then making plans in advance is key to maximising the position. For more information at no cost or obligation on the best strategies to maximise your position please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

GBP EUR Rates Rally Back Over 1.13

The pound has made good gains against the Euro today with levels breaking back over 1.13 in afternoon trade. GBP EUR has rallied by almost a cent from the lowest point today despite stronger EU inflation data. EU inflation numbers rose to 0.5% in December which was higher than the expected 0.4%. It bodes well for the Eurozone after the European Central Bank has battled with weak wage growth and low inflation for almost a decade.

UK retail sales released on Friday could make for an interesting end to the week and the expectation is for a big jump higher for December which covers the Christmas period. A big number would be welcome news for the British economy and hence the pound and could see some material gains. The December retail sales can be a big market mover so those clients with pending requirements either looking to buy Euros or sell Euros would be wise to get in touch to consider your options. UK unemployment data is released next week and this too has the potential to cause some volatility next week.

Rates for selling Euros remain incredibly attractive with all the ongoing uncertainty with Brexit although any further developments in the second round of negotiations could see things change very quickly. Any positive noises being made from either side would likely see the pound rally although it may take a little more time to get to that point.

My view is that the Brexit outlook is starting to look that much more optimistic now that the first phase has been completed which highlighted a will from all sides to put something together.

Those looking to make currency transfer are impacted by these daily events. To discuss your requirement and how to try and maximise on the rates of exchange as they become available then please feel free to get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

How will the Pound move against the Euro in 2018? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has remained in a fairly tight range against the Euro since the start of the year as the market appears to be waiting for further progress with the Brexit talks.

With the last meeting going relatively well in early December we saw GBPEUR rates spike in an upwards direction but the gains were relatively short-lived.

The critical issue of Brexit is that it is not just the UK who will be affected but also the European Union.

When the talks initially began last year the Pound came under a lot of pressure as the cards appeared to be in the hands of the other 27 member states.

However, recently the talks have started to progress positively and I think we could see Sterling improve in the future when the next round of discussions begin again in March.

At the moment the market is relatively settled so if you’re happy converting your money at these rates and would like a free quote then contact me directly by calling 01494725353 and ask for Tom Holian when calling.

The next catalyst for change in the short term is due to come out later on this morning with the latest release of Eurozone inflation figures at 10am. Eurozone Inflation is extremely important for the central bank when deciding monetary policy so this morning’s data could impact GBPEUR exchange rates.

The European Central Bank has already previously reduced their QE programme and if inflation remains as expected we could see the ECB possibly hint at raising interest rates at the next monthly meeting in the future which could see strength for the single currency.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like a free quote compared to using your own bank or simply want to compare rates to buy or sell Euros against your current foreign exchange provider then feel free to get in touch for a free quote. Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to help save you money on exchange rates.

Email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Forecast – Brexit Negotiations Continue to Drive Sterling’s Value (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have remained flat during Tuesday’s trading, with the markets seemingly waiting on the next Brexit report before making a major move.

The pair has remained rang bound of late, with Sterling finding plenty of support above 1.10 but not threatening to break through 1.13 against its EUR counterpart.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has reshuffled her cabinet in the hope of bringing some stability and in turn some confidence back to the markets. However, investors have not reacted particularly positively to this development and whilst the Pound has found a foothold of late, a sustainable increase against the EUR looks unlikely under current market conditions.

The EUR itself has benefited from a prosperous Eurozone economy, which has exceeded expectation at almost every turn. It seems to have been the currency of choice for investors throughout much of 2017 but whether that trend continues over the coming months, is likely to be hinge on how phase two of Brexit negotiations develop.

With so much market focus and emphasis on the UK’s separation from EU neighbours, any positive strides forward in this sphere is likely to benefit Sterling immensely. Brexit has been a weight around its neck for the past 18 months but personally, I feel any resolution in the short-term is highly unlikely.

It is far more conceivable that negotiation’s will continue to stagnate, as they did during the early stages, and this in turn is likely to handicap any sustainable increases for the Pound.

Therefore I would be tempted to remove any risk from the market and lock in any short-term currency exchange before Brexit negotiations resume.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Will the Euro continue to strengthen and will Carillion drag the Pound down? (Joseph Wright)

The headlines surrounding the Euro at the moment are that the currency is currently trading at an all time high against the US Dollar. The gains are generally being put down to the strong economic outlook for the Euro and also expectations that the European Central Bank will begin to cut back on the current stimulus package as the economy justifies it.

Many economists expect to see the Euro hold its ground at the current levels, and when compared with the Pound I think we may even see the Euro to Pound rate improve further especially if Brexit related issues continue to negatively impact sentiment surrounding the UK economy both during and after the Brexit process.

The case for a stronger Pound hasn’t been helped in the past week as it’s emerged that the UK’s second largest construction company, Carillion is likely to go into liquidation shortly. There is up to 20,000 jobs that could be lost as a result and a number of industries and sub-contractors could also run into issues as a result of this. The company has close links with the UK government and it’s emerged that up to 8 contracts were taken out with the company by the government since profit warnings were announced.  This is likely to be looked into further and I certainly don’t think we’ve heard the end of it.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

What will be happening with the pound to Euro forecast this month?

The pound is looking much better against the Euro following the withdrawal agreement which has improved the outlook on the Brexit. Sterling has found some support against the Euro and despite plenty of uncertainty over what lies ahead, sterling is enjoying a much higher range of rates than we have had. The range has been  1.07 to 1.14 so the current levels of 1.12 are not to be easily ignored.

2018 will undoubtedly offer us some better opportunities to buy Euros with pounds following a number of key events including the Italian election in March and the resolution (or not) of the Spanish situation. We will also be looking to the German situation to see if the coalition agreement will actually take place and hold. Whilst agreed today the coalition could struggle and this could see the Euro weaker, if looking to sell Euros and hanging on hoping for big improvements you could end up disappointed!

2018 could be a better year for Euro buyers but the pound could struggle if the Euro continues to find favour which it has been doing recently. Expectations for the pound to struggle can also not be discounted so I would personally be imagining some ranges in the 1.10-1.16 level for Q1 of 2018.

If you have a transfer buying or selling Euros against the pound making the most of the situation and trying to cover your bases on the predictions is sensible. Most clients looking to sell Euros have not had rates this good since September, the lows we hit then were in the 1.08 range, this is the best rates for Euro sellers in nine years!

Overall 2018 has begun fairly quietly on the rates with no major changes but this will not last for long. Market sentiment is leaning towards improvements for the pound against the Euro should the Euro weaken but sterling has many hurdles to overcome. The best way to plan for the future is to create it, if you have a transfer that you are considering please don’t hesitate to contact me Jonathan Watson to discuss further.

Please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk to get the latest news and information on this situation.

Euro remains strong against the Pound but for how long (Tom Holian)

The Pound vs the Euro has been trading in a very tight range during the course of this week as the markets return for their first full week back since the start of the year.

It appears as though the currency markets are waiting for their first big move of the year and with the Brexit negotiations not due until March the Pound could remain under a lot of pressure for the next two months.

Economic data has been mixed and we have seen Sterling move up one day and then down the next and not yet settled in one direction or another.

The Euro has once again broken the 1.20 Interbank level against the US Dollar which is the highest the currency pair has been in a very long time which highlights how strong the single currency is at the moment.

Tomorrow afternoon could see the Euro end the week with a lot of movement as the US releases its latest set of inflation data in the afternoon.

Inflation is a key indicator as to which way a central bank may move interest rates so if you’re in the process of making a currency transfer involving Euros then keep a close eye out on tomorrow’s announcement.

US Retail Sales are also due to be published and like with inflation, I think we could see a lot of volatility at the end of this week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like a free quote compared to using your own bank or simply want to compare rates to buy or sell Euros against your current foreign exchange provider then feel free to get in touch for a free quote. Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to help save you money on exchange rates.

Email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Phase 2 of Brexit Talks could prove problematic (Daniel Johnson)

Brexit Negotiations

It looks as thought the next round of Brexit talks could be problematic which does not bode well for the pound. It seems Brussels have been making contingency plans fro a “no deal” scenario due to the possibility of UK firms losing out.

In a letter to Theresa May, Brexit Secretary, David Davis has warned that firms may have to relocate to Europe or there is the risk of seeing contracts terminated.  The second phase of talks, covering transitional arrangements after the UK leaves and economic and security co-operation moving forward are due to begin towards the end of the month.  Theresa May has said it is right to plan for all possible outcomes, including no deal. She has however stated she is confident the UK and the EU can reach a deal on their post Brexit relations in time for the UK’s departure target. I am of the opinion this is optimistic and that their could be an extension.

There are British concerns about Brussels’ preparations for Brexit with David Davis suggesting they are “frequently damaging to UK interests.” In his letter to May Davis warned it was potentially discriminatory of EU agencies to have issued guidance to businesses stating that Britain would become a “third country” outside the EU without any reference to a future trade deal sought by both parties.

Davis warned that the EU’s current stance amounted to “potential breaches of the UK’s rights as a member state”, he also said he wants the European Commision’s Brexit task force to withdraw the statements so far in light of the deal reached in December to begin trade talks.

The comments from both sides does not bode well for Sterling, it may be wise to take advantage of current levels if you are a Euro buyer.

If you have a currency requirement I would b happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

GBP EUR Rallies Towards 1.14 (James Lovick)

The pound has seen a volatile period after making good gains this week against the Euro. GBP EUR now sits at 1.1344 ahead of industrial and manufacturing production figures released tomorrow. The data has performed well in recent months as a result of the weakness in the price of sterling which is of course good news for British exporters.

The November figures are expected to show a jump higher on Octobers data which could help see the pound rally on the back of a strong number. UK data is generally lighter this week and focus next week will centre on the UK Consumer Price Index inflation numbers on Tuesday as well as retail sales figures released later next week. A pickup in inflation would which would be of concern to the Bank of England could see the pound rally.

With British politics continuing to drive the markets as the ongoing Brexit negotiation moves forward then any developments on this front are likely to see considerable volatility for GBP EUR exchange rates. The cabinet reshuffle which has been concluded today could now set the tone for 2018 after a bad summer for the Prime Minister when Theresa May lost her majority in the House of Commons. The Brexit negotiations however are likely to be the biggest driving force for GBP EUR exchange rates. Clients looking to buy Euros could see a window of opportunity to purchase if the second round of talks get off to a good start.

The Euro however could be in for a better period after stronger data this week impressed the markets and this should help support Euro exchange rates. EU retails sales have performed better whilst Germany has also had a good run of economic data with very high factory orders recorded. Those with pending requirements are likely to see a volatile start to the year. To discuss your won requirement and how we can assist with any transfers please feel free to get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

What can we expect in 2018 on GBPEUR exchange rates?

2018 is looking like another volatile year with plenty of fresh news and developments in a number of areas which could see changes and shifts in the GBPEUR exchange rate. Notably, Brexit will continue to be a key driver for the pound which will see the rates inextricably linked to shifts in sentiment over the Brexit. The Euro has a number of key hurdles to overcome, mainly political like the UK.

If you are considering buying Euros you would be forgiven for checking the headlines over Angela Merkel and the Spanish situation and expecting the Euro to be much weaker. The outlook for the Euro is however still very positive despite the fear and uncertainty surrounding the political situation. Yes, the outlook for the Euro has deteriorated slightly but the prospects for the Euro still remain rather positive.

All in all, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit will I feel be more of a drag on GBPEUR than the political uncertainty in the Eurozone. We should see the market shift according to the run of events which could see the Euro weaker in March when we have the Italian election. Further negative developments on the Spanish or German situation could weigh on the Euro but as mentioned I do feel the weakness of the pound will remain more in focus once again in 2018.

If you are buying or selling Euros for pounds the exchange rate is at an important junction as we have more reasons to be positive over Brexit which has helped the pound, but a number of challenges remain ahead. If you wish to get an overview of the position or discuss further a forecast relating specifically to your position, please feel free to contact me Jonny to discuss further your currency situation.

To learn more about the year ahead on GBPEUR exchange rates and discuss options and strategy please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Problematic German Colation could cause volatility on GBP/EUR (Daniel Johnson)

Merkel faces troubles forming coalition

There are rumours circulating that Angela Merkel could be replaced by Germany’s defence minister, Ursula Von Der Leyen. Germany is losing faith in Merkel’s ability to form a coalition. Merkel failed to build a coalition following her narrow victory in the election in September. She was attempting to unite her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens, which was dubbed the “Jamaica alliance”.

Merkel is currently trying desperately to form a government with the Social Democratic Party (SDP). The electorate is losing faith, some of the latest polls have shown that 46% wish her to step down immediately. Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question, but with Ursula Von Der Leyen potentially gaining power this does not bode well for Sterling. Von Der Leyen is a firm believer in a in a federalised United States of Europe, she grew up in Brussels and is the daughter of Ernst Albrecht, former director general of the European Commission.
There is also the possibility she will attempt to strengthen the alliance with French President Emmanuel Macron as Von Der Leyen shares his views on reforms to integrate the Eurozone. This is definitely not good news for the Brexit process and could make matters even more problematic and has the potential to impact Sterling.Brexit negotiations will be a key factor in GBP/EUR exchange rates. Phase two negotiations are set to be problematic with David Davis and Michael Barnier already at loggerheads. The next phase will be in regards to trade deals and is probably the most important factor in the Brexit process. How talks progress will have major influence on Sterling value.
I think the pound is set to struggle for the foreseeable future. The pound has been range bound against the majority of major currencies and it is often difficult to take advantage of a spike when there may only be a small window of opportunity. If we look at GBP/EUR, the highest rate of exchange we have seen in the last six months was 1.15, following the announcement of an Irish border deal. There was only a very small time frame to take advantage of the situation, thankfully many of my clients managed to get their trade booked during this time frame. I had rate alerts in place to notify my clients of the spike and also called each one letting them know of the opportunity.

If you have a large currency transfer to perform in the coming days, weeks or months then I will be happy to speak to you directly as I will be willing to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the best possible rate when you do come to trade. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a significant difference so for the sake of taking a few minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can contact me (Daniel Johnson) on dcj@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavor to get back to you as quickly as possible. Thank you for reading.