Monthly Archives: June 2018

GBP EUR ahead of Bank of England Meeting Today

The Bank of England meet today and will decide on whether or not to raise interest rates. Although the central bank is expected to hold rates the markets will be interested in the minutes which will include how members vote and also the commentary coming from Governor Mark Carney. The economic data over the last months has been softer which has given the Monetary Policy Committee a good reason to hang fire. The ongoing uncertainty with Brexit is also being cited as being a good reason to not jump too early.

It will be interesting to see if there is a recognition that the high street is still preforming after the bumper retail sales numbers seen last week. UK unemployment is also at 40 year lows which is also an encouraging statistic. Any positive outlook on the British economy is likely to help see the pound rally although a more cautious approach is to be expected and this could keep the pressure on the pound. Rates for GBP EUR could slide lower on a more dovish outlook and the decision today is held at 12pm.

The pound may have found some support though after the vote in the House of Commons yesterday which saw the government defeat the amendment on the Brexit withdrawal bill that has been moving back and for the between the two houses. The government won the vote with a small majority of 16 votes after Dominic Grieve backed down with a compromise agreement which prevented a breakdown in government.

Clients looking to buy or sell Euros are likely to see renewed volatility stemming from the ongoing trade wars between the US and China which are increasingly seeing the EU embroiled. This is already likely to change the course of action from the ECB depending on outcomes so there couple be a volatile period ahead for USD EUR.

For more information on sterling or Euro exchange rates and for assistance in making transfers at the best exchange rates then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Euro rate drops below 1.14, will the pressure on May push the rate even lower?

The Pound is coming under pressure as the Brexit bill, and what will happen if there is no Brexit deal is currently weighing the Pound’s value down.

Sterling exchange rates have fallen across the board of major currency pairs today, with the GBP/EUR rate down by around 0.2% at the time of writing. The debate at the House of Commons will commence once again tomorrow and I think that any updates could impact the Pounds value depending on what’s said.

The political risks for UK Prime Minister, Theresa May are increasing and there have even been talks of a split in her camp with some wishing for her downfall in order to push through the type of Brexit they desire.

Whilst this continues I expect to see Sterling come under pressure. Anyone with a GBP/EUR transfer to plan should be aware that over the past year the rate has been as high as 1.15 and as low as 1.07.

With much of the Pound’s movement being instigated by political news, it can be hard to tell when the rate is likely to move. Working on a dealing floor allows us to react quickly and if you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

ECB Monetary Policy Outlook weakens the Euro (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/EUR -Be wary of thinking GBP/EUR has risen into the 1.14s due to Sterling strength. The Pound has lost considerable ground against the majority of major currencies. GBP/USD has lost over ten cents now sitting at 1.32 and GBP/AUD down from the high 1.84s to to as low as 1.75, now sitting at 1.79.

The reason for Sterling’s recent rally is predominantly due to The European Central Bank (ECB) announcing there would be a cut on Quantitative Easing (QE), but no rate hikes until late 2019. The cutting of QE from €30bn monthly increments to nothing by the end of the year should be take as very positive and the announcement should have caused substantial Euro strength, however the news that there would not be a change in monetary policy until 2019 caused the Euro to lose value.

The lack of clarity surrounding Brexit and the host of poor data caused by the vote to leave continues to anchor the pound below 1.16.

If you have to purchase Euros short term I wouldn’t have higher estimations than 1.1430.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

Could interest rates be going up this year and the impact on the Pound vs the Euro

The Pound has experienced a good period this week when many expected it to come under a huge amount of pressure caused by the farce of the EU Withdrawal Bill discussions.

We saw members of the SNP walk out on the talks and typically the instability would have caused the Pound to suffer but it appeared as though everyone was waiting for UK Retail Sales as well as the latest ECB meeting.

On Thursday UK Retail Sales came out much better than expected compared to the estimate and this led to the Pound starting the day off very positively against the Euro.

However, the main improvements came from the announcements made by the European Central Bank who confirmed that they would be ending their QE Programme at the end of the year.

The Euro fell on the news as the ECB also cut its growth forecast for this year and suggested that any interest rate hike would not be coming for a very long time and this has encouraged a big sell off for the Euro particularly against the Pound.

Indeed, GBPEUR exchange rates had their biggest positive daily movement all year on Thursday.

Next week the main day to influence GBPEUR exchange rates is likely to come on Thursday when the Bank of England hold their next monetary policy meeting.

The split last month was 7-2 in favour of keeping interest rates on hold and with Retail Sales suprising the markets this could provide some support in favour of a rate hike coming earlier than the market currently expects.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of buying Euros in the short term then keep a close eye out on Thursday as this could cause a lot of movement for the Pound vs the Euro.

If you would like to save money when buying or selling Euros compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Makes Gains Following Positive UK Retail Sales Figures (Matthew Vassallo)

The Pound has found a new lease of life over the past 24 hours, giving those clients holding Sterling some much-needed respite.

UK Retail Sales figures released yesterday came in above market expectation. This coupled with some fairly ominous warning from European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi has helped to boost Sterling’s value, with GBP/EUR hitting 1.1464 at today’s high.

This move optimises the current market, which is becoming more unpredictable by the day.

Sterling has been under a huge amount of late, with the EUR benefitting from what seemed to be a complete lack of investor confidence in GBP.

Fears over the current state of the UK economy have continued to manifest themselves, in line with the greatest signs of stress shown since the Eurozone economy and double-dip recession six years ago.

The Pound in turn had struggled to make any impact against the single currency, which seems to be a direct result of the current malaise inside the UK economy.

With Brexit talks becoming more clouded and a seemingly divisive split in the UK government, the Pound continues to find life tough going.

Despite this seemingly negative outlook, there are always opportunities in the market as yesterday’s movement proves.

Those clients holding Sterling may wish to take advantage of the current spike, as there are certainly no guarantees that this positive trend will continue.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award-winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

GBPEUR rates rise! Will we break 1.15?

The pound to Euro exchange rate has risen to 1.1462 at its highest this afternoon as a fresh move lower on EURUSD exchange rates drags the Euro lower against all the majors. The pair was given a nice boost this morning as UK Retail Sales took us from 1.1320 at the opening lows, higher to hit 1.137 as recent concerns over UK economic data cooled.

This afternoon was the big mover with Mario Draghi and the ECB (European Central Bank) providing the final lift and seeing GBPEUR quickly rise over 1.14, it never looked like getting back under this level once breached. The main trigger for this move was news the ECB would seek to its stimulus program in December and an extension of the timing of when the ECB might be looking to raise interest rates.

The general impression will be of a weaker Euro as there are many risks to growth and also politics in the Eurozone, this namely stems from the political situation in Italy which might well further undermine the confidence in the region. Investors are concerned about the longer term outlook and are questioning the likelihood of the ECB actually being able to fulfil these high expectations.

The pound to Euro rate might well drive further, rising above 1.15 is now a very real prospect but clients looking to buy Euros at a higher price would probably be best to make some careful plans since rates can change very quickly!

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Sterling Exchange Rates before UK Retail Sales Data (James Lovick)

The pound remains under pressure despite the British government winning a series of votes in the House of Commons this week after a series of amendments had been put forward in the House of Lords. Things could be become interesting for the pound next week though as the Prime Minister had to make a last minute concession to some of her rebel conservatives who seek to keep Britain with as close ties as possible to the European Union. It would appear that what was offered on Tuesday is not quite what the government is prepared to offer and concerns the issue of having a meaningful vote which would prevent the government from walking away from the negotiations without a deal.

The European Central Bank (ECB) meet later today for the next interest rate decision. Although no change is expected the important detail will be in the Quantitative Easing schedule. Clients looking to sell Euros will be interested to hear when the ECB is likely to conclude its vast Quantitative Easing scheme. ECB President Mario Draghi will be providing the markets with a running commentary this afternoon and may offer some clues as to the central bank’s thinking

UK retail sales numbers are released this morning and are likely to see a reaction. The UK economy has struggled to get back up to speed following that cold weather front dubbed the Beast from the East although a pick up this morning is probably overdue. A big number could see the pound rally and would restore some confidence in the British growth outlook.

The Bank of England meet next week for the next interest rate decision although no change is expected this time round. There is more likely to be a focus on when the next rate hike will take place which is earmarked for either August or November.

For more information on the pound or Euro exchange rates and for assistance in making any transfers then please feel free to contact me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling weakens as low inflation levels disappoint the markets, where to next for the pair?

Sterling has fallen in value today after some disappointing data released this morning.

According to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) the consumer price index has hit a 1-year low last month. Although this was expected the figure is the lowest since March of 2017, and it showed 2.4%.

This lessens the possibility of a rate hike from the Bank of England later in the year, which is why the Pound has dropped in value. It’s worth noting that many within the financial markets had expected to see the base rate hiked last month and the chances of this happening this year have now slimmed, which is why GBP/EUR is a couple of cents lower now than it was just a few months back when hopes were high.

The Brexit negotiations and internal disputes are being discussed in parliament as we speak as UK Prime Minister, Theresa May hopes to bring about an agreement between her party.

Tomorrow there could be movement for GBP/EUR exchange rates as there is a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting with high hopes of a key update from ECB president, Mario Draghi.

If the ECB plans on cutting back on its Asset Purchasing Plan I expect to see the Euro strengthen.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

The Pound remains fragile (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/EUR – Sterling remains weak and it is the same old story. Brexit uncertainty. Top of the agenda is the Irish border deal, which is proving to be a point of contention. There seems to be little progress and talks could be elongated. There has been attempts to put a back stop plan in place, but even this is proving troublesome.

Ideally the UK government would like to have a back stop deal ready for the EU summit due to commence on 28th June. I am of the opinion bar unforeseen circumstances in order for GBP/EUR to exceed 1.16 there needs to be major progress in Brexit. GBP/EUR has been range bound between 1.12-1.1599 for over 12 months. 1.15 seems to be a point of resistance with anything above 1.15 only available for small windows of opportunity.

Yesterday we saw the release of UK manufacturing data came in down 1.4%, the largest fall since October 2012. Trade balance data showed a widening deficit which was another negative factor. GDP was up from 0.1% to 0.2%, but this was still below expectations of 0.3%.

There are still rumours of a possible rate hike this year from the Bank of England (BOE), but in this climate I find little justification to do so.

There is the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday and it is anticipated that there will an announcement on a cut in Quantitative Easing (QE) or indeed that t could be cut completely. I am not so convinced, but this is definitely on the cards and if it does not happen now it could happen later in the year. This has the potential to cause substantial Euro strength.

If you are buying Euros short term I would not be aiming for much higher than 1.1430.

If you have a currency requirement I would b happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

EU withdrawal bill to dominate Sterling Euro rates next week

The Pound has remained in a relatively tight range against the Euro during the course of this week as the markets appears to be adopting a wait and see approach with next week’s EU withdrawal bill discussion.

Only recently the House of Lords voted against a number of terms in the bill and this will be debated on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. The main aim of the talks will be what happens to the Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland issue as well as aiming to repeal the original European Communities Act of 1972.

The government are keen to get things resolved prior to the next meeting with the EU when the summit takes place on 28th June as the UK is keen to get things organised for once we officially leave the European Union.

The proposal is that on the day when we do leave, the UK will adopt all EU law otherwise things could be rather chaotic to say the least.

As we look forward to next week there are a number of economic data releases due out in the UK. On Tuesday morning UK average earnings as well as unemployment data is due out and both have been rather positive lately so this could provide a boost for the Pound.

However, the EU withdrawal bill is likely to dominate the Pound during next week so even if the data is positive I think any gains for Sterling vs the Euro will be limited.

If you would like to save money when transferring Euros compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. With 15 years of experience at one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that I can also help you with the timing of your currency purchase.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Forecast – Brexit Developments Continue to Drive Market Sentiment (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have moved back towards 1.14 this morning, following a dip for Sterling during Thursday’s trading.

This downturn could be linked to the latest Brexit update. Reports yesterday indicating that UK Prime Minister Theresa May had to concede ground to Brexit secretary David Davis, regarding the customs union and Northern Irish border.

These developments could further weaken the PM’s position, although on the flip-side they may also help to quell market fears that Davis was on the verge of stepping down from his position.

If this had occurred it could have potentially devastating effects in terms of investor confidence in the UK economy and the Pound would surely have come under huge pressure against its Euro counterpart.

With the Bank of England (BoE) seemingly diluting any chance of an interest rate hike in the short-term, it is likely that the markets and GBP/EUR rates in particular will be driven primarily by Brexit developments.

Whilst economic data will no doubt also impact GBP/EUR value, along with any political destabilisation in with the UK or key Eurozone economies, I expect investors to react primarily to Brexit updates over the coming months.

I have advocated to my clients for many months that any short-term market spikes for GBP should be seen as an opportunity. Investor confidence in the Pound is clearly fragile at best and with the UK’s economic standing post Brexit still clouded in uncertainty, we are still far more questions than answers.

Business Confidence figures remain low and whilst a run of improved economic Data could help elevate Sterling’s value to a certain degree, I am not anticipating a major spike from the current levels over the coming days.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award-winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Brexit uncertainty still weighs on the pound!

The full scale of uncertainty remaining over Brexit was reinforced today with David Davis, the UK Brexit secretary reportedly ready to resign if Theresa May failed to commit to any end date on Brexit when the UK would have effectively left the EU. The idea being to end the potential perpetuity of the loose, yet legal ties the UK would still maybe have with the EU.

For clients interested in the pound and the Euro, the outlook for both currencies remains mixed with plenty of both positive and negative elements to consider. The two currencies have been stuck in a deadlock since November 2017, we have only seen just over 4 cents movements since this date which highlights not only the lack of movement on the pair, but also the potential for big swings up ahead.

Some key events to be conscious of up ahead are the ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision next Thursday before the Bank of England decision the following Thursday and the EU Summit the following week. This makes the next 3 Thursday’s very interesting indeed for the GBP to Euro rate.

I think the pound to Euro will remain in this 4 cent band, essentially between 1.12-1.16, clients looking to buy or sell Euros with pounds should be checking the market very carefully. There is potential for a move outside of these levels but more than likely we will fluctuate inside them. For any clients looking at a position we can offer a free, no obligation service to offer strategy and monitor the market for developments which will help you.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you!

GBP Exchange Rates in Politically Driven Week

The pound is set for a hugely volatile week as the House of Commons Brexit withdrawal vote approaches next Tuesday. The pressure is now very much on Prime Minister Theresa May who will be meeting Brexit ministers today to discuss the final arrangements for a backstop plan. This proposal has been very controversial within cabinet with a public clash between Brexit secretary David Davis and Theresa May. If no agreement can be reached today then this could prove problematic for sterling exchange rates with the pound likely to come under further pressure.This of course is all ahead of the voter next week which will see 15 amendments from the House of Lords voted on. If the government is defeated on a number of these votes then this could freeze the Brexit process and delay things which in my view would be negative for the pound due to more uncertainty both politically and economically.

Clients looking to buy or sell Euros are likely to see a very volatile period on the back of any developments and should consider their options at this stage. Rates for buying Euros are very close to the recent 1 year highs seen a couple of months ago.

European Central Bank members Praet, Hansson and Knot will be meeting this week and are likely to offer forward guidance. Any clues here as to when the ECB will conclude its asset purchasing scheme are likely to see the Euro react. If the Quantitative Easing programme is stopped in its entirety then the Euro is likely to strengthen on renewed confidence. However any suggestion that the tapering of the scheme could be extended is likely to result in Euro weakness.

EU GDP data is released this morning and could be one to watch. Any pick up in the numbers today could also prove Euro positive.

Fore assistance in making transfers and how to maximise on the rates of exchange when they happen then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Euro strengthens as ECB board member drops hint

We’ve seen the Euro strengthen during today’s trading session, as a member of the European Central Bank has dropped a hint regarding next week’s June ECB meeting.

The ECB’s Peter Praet has given us a strong hint during a speech in Berlin that next weeks meeting could see the ECB signal the end of their assett-purchasing programme. Some economists are expecting to see September as the cut off point which is actually an shorter time frame than initially expected. Personally, I’m expecting to see the Euro strengthen further if this announcement is made, especially after seeing the Euro react positively in the wake of Praet’s comments today in Berlin.

After some weak data releases recently and the Euro’s poor performance, the bullish comments today are a welcome change for Euro sellers as the Euro has been under pressure for a while now.

One downside for the Euro is the current political situation in Italy, and it could determine whether the ECB decides to amend their programme. The government that’s been formed through the coalition of Lega and 5 star movement is considered Eurosceptic and thrifty, and this has concerned the markets may cause the ECB to delay any key decisions.

If you would like to be updated in the event of a major move for the markets, do feel free to register your interest with me. Next week’s meeting will take place on Thursday at lunchtime, so our readers have plenty of time to get in touch and plan around this event.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.