No real data releases of note for the UK, Canada, or the US saw rates hold relatively stable for GBP-CAD and CAD against other major currencies. The Canadian Dollar found enough strength to pull GBP-CAD rates back below 1.90 once more, as the rates seem to oscillate above and below until one of the currencies finds enough momentum to break away from this area of resistance.
Tomorrow the release of UK data will likely produce enough material to cause movement one way or the other. The GDP estimate released by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research is an estimate of growth over the last 3 months up to the report which comes out a month before the official announcement. The report is very reliable and, because it influences UK monetary policy, likely to influence the currency markets.
Should the reading come in lower that expected, and this is likely, the rates should move down below 1.89 and beyond as confidence in Sterling falls. The UK general election, poor manufacturing data, and record low inflation will likely have caused some stagnation or hesitancy in the UK economy during this period. Enough to force a stall in GDP growth to weaken Sterling on the markets during the first quarter of 2015.
Certainly there has been little that would suggest an increase from what was expected for the first quarter. Most businesses and investors were hesitant until after the May election to craft long-term economic positions. Now we have a definite and working conservative majority, we will likely produce a flurry of activity. But for now, the data coming out tomorrow morning will be a sombre reminder that the first quarter wasn’t a straightforward period for the UK economy. We are doing better than most of Europe currently, but not across the board.
Those with CAD to buy should contact me overnight on [email protected] for a free quote ahead of the data release tomorrow. To watch how the rates will be affected through the day, click here, but I recommend getting in contact ahead of the event. Even if your requirements are not until later in the year, rates can be pegged for up to 12 months. As we are still so close to a 6 year high against the CAD, I would be inclined to do so.