Catalonian election could create Euro weakness (Daniel Johnson)

Close election in Spain could weaken the Euro

Regional elections in Spain commence on Thursday and they are a cause for worry for Brussels. The election is expected to be close between pro and anti independence parties. I would be surprised if any of the seven parties involved mange to secure a majority victory. Political uncertainty is a main factor in currency weakness so this  could create an opportunity for euro buyers.

Catalans have a tough decision. They must stick with a unstable separatist coalition whose leaders have been placed in prison or left the country, or take a chance on alternative parties that fall in line with a united Spain which would no doubt suit Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy’s wishes.

Recent polls suggest a lead for Catalonian secessionists who have used a the slim victory in the last regional parliament to declare independence  and cause a clash over sovereignty and popular that have caused worry far beyond Spain. There was less than half of the electorate involved in that vote.

Catalonia makes up a significant amount of Spanish GDP, but it is the threat that other regions follow suit if independence becomes a reality. If other regions, not just in Spain decide to campaign for independence this could create a serious threat to the Euro.

If you are buying euros with Sterling however be wary of hanging on for significant gains. I would suggest moving if the market hits above 1.14, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations is seemingly anchoring GBP/EUR below 1.15,it is something of a resistance point at present.

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