Category Archives: Buy Euros

Italian Politics and a positive end to the week for the Pound

It appears as though Italian politics are causing the Euro a problem as the Pound has shown signs of improvement and even EURUSD exchange rates are close to their lowest levels in months.

Both the Italian parties the 5 Star Movement and Lega have both proposed plans to leave the EU in the future and this is clearly a cause for concern.

They have also suggested that they will look to increase pensions for older Italians as well as considering a plan to create an amnesty for some tax offenders in Italy.

Recently European Central Bank President Mario Draghi suggested that political tensions could cause problems for the Eurozone and therefore the single currency so a change in Italy could potentially cause a ripple effect in the months ahead.

Yesterday, the Eurozone announced Construction Output data and this showed a fall which caused the single currency to fall against the Pound providing a good opportunity this week to buy the Euro at its highest level.

Later on this morning the Eurozone will release the latest set of Trade Balance data and this will give us a key insight into how the economy on the continent is performing.

Overall, I think we could see a positive end to the week for anyone looking to buy Euros and I think the GBPEUR exchange rate may even break past 1.15 during today’s trading session.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency companies for 15 years I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your transfer.

For a free quote then contact me directly by calling 01494787478 and asking for Tom Holian when calling or email me directly with a brief description of your currency requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

GBP EUR Strength – Will Rates Hit 1.15?

The pound has rallied against the Euro taking rates for GBP EUR to a high of 1.1451 today. The pound has actually seen a poor day against all of the major currencies the exception being the Euro. The pound has been supported against the Euro after positive employment and average earnings data performed well. Unemployment remains at 4.2% which sits at a 42 year low whilst average earnings overtook inflation, something the Bank of England has been very keen to see happen.

After the bank of England held interest rates last Thursday the markets are beginning to question when the next interest rate increase will happen. The expectation is for a rate increase in August by 0.25% taking levels to 0.75%. If all goes well with a Brexit and a free trade deal is in place then this should allow the Bank of England to hike again by another 0.25%. A move towards 1.15 is not unrealistic although there are some Brexit headwinds approaching which could see the pound fall.

Clients look to buy Euros could see some better opportunities if the economic data in the UK improves and there is an increase in Quarter 2 GDP. Strong data in my view will settle those fears that the slowdown is more deep rooted than just the Beast from the East cold weather front and could help lift the pound considerably.

In the short term though the markets are more interested in the more pressing issues of the Brexit negotiations and the hugely important vote in the House of Commons in the next few weeks.

The House of Lords have made a series of amendments that will attempt to keep Britain in the EU single market and customs union. If the government were to lose the vote there could be a series of political events that follow including the prospect of a new prime Minister and / or a general election. In my view this poses the biggest risk for the pound in what is already a very uncertain period. A change of government could put the pound on very shaky ground and clients with pending requirements would be wise to consider planning ahead of the key vote. There is likely to be a lot of market volatility at that time.

For more information on sterling or Euro exchange rates and assistance in making transfers at the best rates of exchange then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Has GBP/EUR already hit its 2018 high, and what factors could drive its value as the year progresses?

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is currently trading around the 1.14 mark, after seeing a slight boost yesterday off the back of some positive data.

After beginning yesterday’s trading session closer to the 1.13 mark the Pound was boosted when the Office of National Statistics (ONS) announced that UK unemployment sits at the record low of 4.2%, and that wage growth in the UK has outpaced the rate of inflation for the first time in a year.

Despite this positive data the Pound to Euro rate is still a couple of cents from its highest levels this year when the pair almost hit 1.16. The positive sentiment surrounding the Pound has since dropped off after the Bank of England voted against a rate hike at last weeks monetary policy meeting.

In order for GBP/EUR to hit a new 2018 high I think there will need to be a breakthrough regarding the final Brexit deal, as such positive news would likely push the Pound higher. I also think that if talk of a rate hike returns later in the year we could see a stronger Pound, especially if the European Central Bank (ECB) continue to hold off of raising interest rates this year.

For those following the pair, its worth noting that Morgan Stanley are predicting short term weakness in the Pounds value, before a longer term recovery as they believe the Pound is oversold and that this will continue in the short term future.

There is a lack of data out of the UK for the rest of the week, but this mornings inflation data from the Eurozone may influence exchange rates.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBPEUR remains range bound in the 1.13s

This morning the UK released their latest average earnings numbers and Europe released their latest GDP numbers and both economic data releases met the expectation. Due to there being no surprises GBPEUR exchange rates have remains fairly flat throughout the day. If anything the pound has made some minor gains against the euro and you could argue the fall in European production is the reasoning for this.

GBPEUR exchange rates have been gradually falling over the last 2 weeks since Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney announced that the UK were unlikely to raise interest rates. With the central bank failing to hike last Thursday this story could have a major influence on the future of GBPEUR going forward.

UK economic data releases need to be watched closely if you are converting GBPEUR short term. Economic data for April was terrible, if we see a rebound now that the weather has changed the likelihood of a hike increases and therefore the pound should follow suit. However Brexit negotiations will also be a key driver for exchange rates.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has warned Brexiteers today that she is not prepared for a no deal which would in turn create a hard border in Ireland. My opinion has not changed I would be extremely tempted to buy euros upfront as the Brexit story has the potential to crash the pound if the negotiations go horribly wrong.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR currency transfers feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Important day for GBP/EUR exchange rates – U.K Unemployment and European growth figures the headlines

Today will be important for GBP/EUR exchange rates as we have the release of some key data for both the U.K and Europe which will no doubt have an impact on GBP/EUR exchange rates.

First and foremost we haver U.K unemployment and average earnings figures which will be focussed on by investors, speculators and the Bank of England as economic data at present is extremely important for where we may head next with interest rates.

A drop off in economic data for the U.K has recently dampened the chances of a rate hike which in turn has led to weakness for the Pound. An interest rate hike (or the mere speculation of one) can add value to a currency as we see an increase in demand due to it being more attractive to investors.

Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney commented at his latest interest rate decision that as long as there were no economic disasters we should see an interest rate hike soon, so a slight lift in average earnings or drop in unemployment may give Sterling exchange rates a lift this morning.

European growth figures are due out at 10:00am this morning and expectations are for the figure to remain at 0.4% for Q1 of 2018 and 2.5% growth year on year, should this be the case then this may not impact the markets too much but any deviation from this could give the Euro a fairly volatile period mid-morning. There had been concerns over growth in many areas of the Eurozone so it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see these figures revised down a little.

If you are in the position that you need to carry out a currency exchange involving buying Euros with Pounds or exchanging your Euros back into Pound then you are more than welcome to get in touch with me and I will be  happy to help you personally. The brokerage I work for has been operating for 18 years now and we pride ourselves on getting clients not only the best exchange rates on the market but also offering the very highest level of customer service too.

If you would like to discuss a specific scenario or exchange with me then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally.

Bank of England keep rates on hold which causes the Pound to fall against the Euro

The Bank of England confirmed yesterday that they would be keeping interest rates on hold and the vote was split 7-2 in favour of keeping interest rates the same.

The Interbank level fell from 1.1450 to 1.1380 minutes after the announcement as some now feel that an interest rate hike may be a long time away from coming.

UK GDP data which came out a fortnight ago showed growth was at just 0.1% for the first quarter and this was one of the principle reasons for keeping rates on hold and this caused investors to sell off the Pound.

A potential interest rate hike was one of the main factors for Sterling’s strength against the Euro last month but since then the focus will turn back to what is happening with the Brexit talks which are still very uncertain.

ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak this afternoon so any hints that there may be a change to the current monetary policy could see some volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates.

On Tuesday we are likely to see a very volatile start to the week as there are a number of economic data releases to watch out for.

We begin Tuesday with the release UK unemployment figures and at the same time Average Earnings are also due out. If average earnings show another positive reading then this could provide some support for a rate hike to come in the future and with UK Inflation Report Hearings due out at 11am we could see a lot of movement.

Also on Tuesday Eurozone GDP data is released at 10am so expect Tuesday to be the biggest day of movement for GBPEUR exchange rates.

Having worked in the foreign exchange markets since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your transfer.

For a free quote then contact me directly by calling 01494787478 and asking for Tom Holian when calling or email me directly with a brief description of your currency requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP Rates Before Bank of England Meeting

The Bank of England meet tomorrow for the next interest rate decision where it is expected that interest rates will remain on hold. After a series of weaker economic data the pressure is now firmly off the central bank from raising interest rates tomorrow. A combination of weak retail sales data, a drop in the performance of the services sector and most importantly the sharper fall seen in the Gross Domestic Product numbers all make for a valid reason for the Bank of England to not raise rates. Clients looking to buy Euros may wish to consider moving before the event to avoid potential disappointment.

UK GDP for the first quarter arrived at just 0.1% indicating the lowest growth in the UK in five years. The cold weather brought from the Beast from the East is the main contributor to the weaker data but there hasn’t been a bounce yet which could restore some calm to the markets.

The pound could see a small rally if the central bank indicates that it is still set for additional hikes later this year. However in my opinion the Bank of England are more likely to highlight risks to the British economy especially when considering the continuing Brexit negotiations.

For the Eurozone the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will be speaking tomorrow and he may offer some more clues as to future monetary policy. He has recently cited low inflation as a reason to continue with its asset purchasing scheme which has proved negative for Euro exchange rates. For the moment the central bank is continuing with the tapering of the vast asset purchasing scheme and more of this rhetoric should prove negative for Euro exchange rates.

For more information on sterling exchange rates and the Euro and how to take advantage of any spikes in the currency markets then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Euro rate hits May high this morning, will Euro weakness continue to push the rate higher?

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has hit a month high this morning, after breaking through 1.14 quite comfortably earlier today for the first time in May.

At the time of writing the pair are trading at 1.1425, offering those exchanging Pounds into Euros the chance to make their trade at the best levels in a few weeks. The move this morning looks like its off the back Euro weakness, with the EUR/USD rate hitting a fresh 2018 low over the past day.

The Euro is the worst performing major currency of the past week, and talk of stubborn inflationary levels stopping the ECB from amending the current monetary policy are beginning to dampen sentiments surrounding the Euro also. The European Central Bank has confirmed that there will be no interest rate hikes this year which is also dampened sentiment towards the Euro, so I can understand why the single currency is dropping especially when we consider how strong it’s been over the last year.

There are a few downsides for the Pound that I think Sterling sellers should be aware of. With Brexit talks stalling in the House of Lords and the Northern Irish border also becoming a hot topic, I think there is a chance the Pound could see a sell-off should there be a negative Brexit related update, and the UK economy has also been showing signs of a slowdown to Sterling sellers should be weary.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPEUR exchange rates rise or fall by the end of the week?

With GBPEUR exchange reaches back above 1.14, it seems like a good time for euro buyer to take advantage as I expect the pound could come under pressure on Thursday when the Bank of England announce their latest interest rate decision.

The chances of a rate hike have dropped to 20% from 80% according to Lloyds and the reason for the fall is that UK economic data released last month disappointed. Retail sales, inflation and GDP all dropped significantly and recent Brexit developments are also putting pressure on the Bank of England’s decision.

Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has stated over the last 18 months that Brexit developments will influence monetary policy, and with the House of Lords on a weekly basis heavily criticizing the Government, UK Prime Minister Theresa May appears to be stuck between a rock and a hard place. It was only this afternoon the House of Lords stated the UK should remain part of the single market.

My personal opinion is that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold and the Governor Mark Carney will continue with his stance that a hike is likely to occur this year, however he will not confirm when and this will cause the pound to lose further value.

To finish the week all eyes will turn to the ECB and President Mario Draghi’s speech. Every time the President speaks, investors are watching closely for guidance in regards to the QE program. Time is running out for the President as he will want to give the markets as much time to adjust and the plan was to cut the QE program by the end of the year. This story has the potential to have a major influence of GBPEUR exchange rates moving forward.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR currency transfers feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

 

 

Sterling is on shaky ground (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/EUR – The fragility of the pound is currently being demonstrated as political uncertainty and a host of poor data releases weigh down Sterling. We have had poor inflation, poor retail sales and GDP arrived at 0.1%, the lowest figures in five years. The highly anticipated rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) in May now seems off the cards with little justification to do so other than unemployment hitting a 43 yr low. This however may not be so impressive, with many on zero hour contracts, not the most stable form of employment.

Political uncertainty has been another catalyst for Sterling’s fall. Theresa May is facing criticism for her stance on access to the customs union following Brexit. Keep an eye on developments as they will influence GBP/EUR.

If you have a Euro requirement short term move if the market hits the 1.14s.

Euro sellers – short term you could see gains, but be wary of holding on for too long with high expectations as Sterling is chronically undervalued. Clarity on Brexit will cause the Pound to rally.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Bank of England now less likely to raise rates and the impact on GBPEUR rates

The Pound has once again struggled to make any gains vs the Euro and we are now just a week away from the Bank of England’s next interest rate decision due to be held on 10th May.

Only a fortnight ago the price to buy Euros had hit its highest level since May 2017 almost breaking past 1.16 but since then we have seen a 3 cent drop on GBPEUR exchange rates as it appears now much less likely that we’ll see a rate hike coming next week.

UK GDP data for the first quarter of 2018 came out late last week at the slowest pace since 2012 and this appears to have decreased the chances of a rate hike coming in the near future.

Inflation is still high at 2.5% which fell quicker than expected and although it is falling it is still higher than the target which is 2%.

With this in mind I don’t think that the Bank of England will completely rule out an interest rate hike but I think owing to the recent poor economic data then I think next week’s decision could be to keep rates on hold and therefore the Pound could fall further.

The Brexit is still causing global investors to shy away from Sterling at the moment and with the Eurozone GDP data higher than the UK then I think we could see a rocky road ahead for the Pound vs the Euro.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s longest established currency brokers for 15 years I am confident of being able to help you save money when buying currency as well as helping you with the timing of your currency purchase.

For further information or for a free quote then contact me directly by sending me an email and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Weaker Ahead of Local Elections

UK Prime Minister Theresa May held her Brexit cabinet meeting yesterday afternoon which could offer further direction for the Brexit negotiations and hence the pound. The issue of the day is whether Britain should remain part of the customs union with the EU. Brexit negotiator Oliver Robbins is trying to steer the government towards a customs partnership that would keep some of the benefits of the single market although members of the cabinet are unlikely to vote in favour of this option.

Overnight there has been a strong backlash within the government against the proposed customs partnership and this only adds to the uncertainty for the pound ahead of local elections tomorrow. GBP EUR has fallen to a low of 1.322 this morning. This could be a milestone in the Brexit process and any developments are likely to see new direction for the pound. Political uncertainty continues to be a major driving force for sterling exchange rates.

The pound is set for a volatile few months but it will be later in May when the House of Commons will be forced to vote on a number of amendments that will try to enforce a close relationship with the EU with a view to keeping Britain in the single market. This will be a huge test for Theresa May and a vote of confidence has been mooted which would take the country close to the prospect of a general election.

UK Purchasing Managers Index data for the construction sector could give the pound a boost if there is any pick up following the awful winter which has helped push down UK Gross Domestic Product after the Beast from the East. The services sector numbers will be released tomorrow and could also provide a rally if there is some relief for the markets that it is not all doom and gloom

For more information on the Euro and how to make the most of any opportunities when buying or selling Euros then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR trading around a 6-week low, will the pair continue to fall?

The Pound has come under pressure once again today, not just compared to the Euro but across the board of major currencies. Those planning on making a large transfer from Pounds into Euros are seeing the cost of Euros become more expensive on almost a daily basis at the moment, and there are a number of reasons for this.

The financial markets had previously been pricing in an interest rate hike from the Bank of England, up to 0.75% which would be the highest rate since the UK exited the global recession almost 10-years ago. This rate hike is now looking a lot less likely after some disappointing GDP figures released lat week showed a slowdown in the UK economy. According to the preliminary GDP figures, the UK economy has slowed to its slowest level in 5-years and although much of this is being attributed to the terrible weather in the first quarter of this year.

At the same time Manufacturing data released this morning showed that the sector has dropped to a 17-month low. With the UK economy appearing to slowdown the chances of a rate hike have slipped and now Lloyd’s Bank are only expecting a 20% chance of the hike actually happening this month.

Tomorrow there is Construction data to be released and then on Thursday there will be Services data released, all out of the UK. Further weak data in my opinion is highly likely to result in a further sell-off of the Pound, so do feel free to register your interest with me if you would like to be notified should there be a major spike do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP/EUR stuck at pivotal point of 1.15 – Will rates break above or head back down?

Sterling is currently sat around the 1.15 mark against the Euro and appears to be fairly range bound as we head towards the end of the trading week. Yesterday saw the most volatility for the pairing that we have seen this week following the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference, this led to a little Euro weakness and Sterling moving back up through 1.15.

This rise was short lived however, as profit taking knocked the pound back below 1.15 and now we appear to be sat at a pivotal point for where GBP/EUR exchange rates will head next. This morning we have growth figures released for the U.K and this will be the first set of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures for quarter 1 of 2018.

Expectations aren’t great for this data set due to the extremely poor weather that we had in the U.K in the early part of the year. Cold snaps and lots of snow ground the U.K to a halt on more than one occasion which can only dent economic productivity.

The release is due out at 09:30am this morning so if you have a Euro exchange to carry out in the coming weeks then this will be key for you. This release will also impact on the Bank of England’s next interest rate decision on May 10th. members of the MPC are currently watching every U.K data release extremely closely and the chance of an interest rate hike is currently in the balance, if they go ahead and do it we may see Sterling strength, if they hold off then the Pound may weaken.

Should you be in the position that you need to carry out an exchange in the coming days, weeks or months ahead then it is well worth getting in touch with me personally as I can help you with your transfer. We do not only offer the highest levels of exchange but also an extremely efficient level of customer service too. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to speak to you personally.

GBP/EUR hits 1.15 (Daniel Johnson)

Draghi hints at prolonged QE

Today at the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting Mario Draghi the head of the ECB has indicated that Quantitative Easing (QE) could well continue into 2019 despite earlier hints that it would be ending this year. QE is pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth, current monthly increments are €30bn, if there was to be a cut you would expect the Euro to strengthen significantly. News that  QE could continue has caused GBP/EUR to move above 1.15.

In my opinion considering the current situation in the UK in regards to ongoing talks on the custom union situation it is a favourable time to buy Euros. 1.1599 has been the peak of the market in the last 11 months. We currently sit at 1.15, buying a cent away form an 11 month high is not a bad idea if you have to move short term.

If you have time to play with I am confident Sterling is c undervalued. Pre- Brexit levels were in the 1.40s, as further clarity is provided on Brexit the pound will rally, when, depends on the competence and attitude of those negotiating, throwing into the mix other UK political parties with their own agendas complicating matters.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

What will happen at the ECB meeting today?

The European Central Bank will be meeting later on today to discuss their latest plans for monetary policy. The current QE programme remains at €30bn per month and at the moment the expectation is that this will end towards the end of this year.

I don’t think we’ll see any change to policy this month so all eyes will be focused on the tone of the press conference and whether ECB president Mario Draghi will suggest that any changes may be coming.

Draghi has previously made it quite apparent that he wants to see further signs of growth in inflation before any change to the economic stimulus is made.

The Euro has hit the lowest level against the Pound since May 2017 in the last fortnight after rumours increased that an interest rate hike may be coming in the UK but since then the Pound slightly dropped against the single currency after Bank of England governor Mark Carney suggested that although rate hikes are ‘likely’ his tone was a little dovish.

However, in my opinion I think there is enough evidence to justify a rate hike coming in the UK as average earnings have surpassed inflation for the first time in a long time and unemployment levels are close to the lowest on record.

Therefore, even if we don’t see an interest rate hike on May 10th I think the overall tone will be that there will be one coming soon which could give the Pound a boost against the Euro.

If you’re considering buying Euros then it may be worth seeing what happens later today with the ECB before making your move.

For further information or a free quote when buying currency then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. Having worked for one of the UK’s longest established currency brokers since 2003 I am confident I can save you money on exchange rates.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP EUR Moves Higher after Weaker EU Manufacturing Data (James Lovick)

The pound remains close to some of the highest levels we have seen against the Euro in the last months creating a good opportunity for those clients looking to buy Euros. UK politics is still going to the big driver for sterling exchange rates in these coming weeks and months with the main topic of Brexit dictating the direction of travel. The pound has been boosted considerably against the Euro now that the second round of the Brexit negotiations have been concluded which covers the transitional arrangements for after when Britain leaves the EU in March 2019.

However the issue of a customs union is still to be decided and there have been reports that the UK Prime Minister Theresa May could be considering remaining in the Customs Union. However there are members of the House of Lords that would like to see the UK remain in the EU’s Customs Union and there was a majority that voted in favour last week. The government’s response is that Britain will not be staying in the Customs Union but there is still likely to be considerable volatility for the pound as Theresa May does not command a large enough majority to safely push her vision of Brexit through. There are a number of politicians within the conservative government that will vote against Theresa May which could result in a high degree of political uncertainty if tensions rise considerably.

The Euro has is also starting to come under a bit of pressure after it was reported yesterday that manufacturing in the EU has fallen to its lowest level in 14 months. Manufacturing data released yesterday as per the Purchasing Managers Index fell to the lowest levels in 14 months. Any further deterioration in EU economic data could help see the pound push higher against the Euro with a move towards 1.18 a real possibility despite the usual Brexit concerns.

For more information on Euro exchange rates and how to maximise on these developments which create better opportunities then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Is the trend of a strong April for the Pound about to end?

The seasonal trend of the Pound gaining throughout the month of April looks set to end this month, which is coincidentally the 13th month unlikely when the Pound is compared with the US Dollar.

The Pound tends to perform well against most major currency pairs including the Euro during April, with the trend being attributed to the new tax year and a lot of dividend payments being made around this time in GBP denominated equities.

It looks like 13th time unlikely as the Pound is trading below its starting point versus the US Dollar and the Euro when the month begun. Sterling has been coming under pressure recently after some poor Retail Sales figures and lower inflation and wage growth figures. The drop in the Pounds value and sentiment surrounding it have led the Bank of America Merrill Lynch to drop their bet on the Pound gaining in value during the month of April.

I also think that Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney failing to confirm the expected interest rate hike from the BoE next month has also impacted the Pound negatively, and the issues surrounding whether or not the UK will leave the EU Customs Union is also weighing on the Pounds value.

If you would like to discuss any upcoming transfers you’re planning, I think next months BoE meeting on the 10th of May is key, and feel free to get in touch to plan around this event and ask for my opinion.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GDP to influence exchange rates this week

The recent positive run for GBPEUR exchange rates came to an end last week, when UK inflation feel sharply and Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney couldn’t confirm the prospects of an interest rate hike in May. Sterling fell from the 1.16s to the 1.14s causing concern for euro buyers. Any further commentary from the Bank of England over the next couple of weeks before the decision will have the potential to cause further fluctuations.

Other UK economic data in the form of Retail sales was another reason why the Governor failed to state a hike is just around the corner. UK GDP numbers are set to be released this week and the predictions are for a slight fall as the adverse weather conditions continue to cause a problem for the UK. If GDP falls I expect that an interest rate hike may not occur which could be a problem for euro buyers but good news for Euro sellers.

In other news the house of commons is set to meet this week to discuss the customs union. The House of lords voted in favour of remaining within the customers union, however Theresa May has made it clear that the  UK is leaving. If this story continues to escalate again this could put pressure on the pound.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR currency transfers feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

Pound weakens after hopes of a rate hike in May are dampened, where to next for the GBP/EUR rate? (Joseph Wright)

Financial markets had been pricing in an interest rate hike from the Bank of England since some bullish comments from the Bank of England last month.

The hopes of a rate hike have since dampened after some important comments from the governor of the Bank of England. Yesterday evening whilst speaking to the BBC, Mark Carney cooled expectations of a rate hike next month after not confirming that it would actually happen. There have been a few members of the BoE that have already voted in favour of hiking interest rates, and with the rate of wage growth in the UK now picking up and similar to inflation levels, many were expecting the base rate in the UK to rise to its highest level since the UK exited the recession.

Carney commented that he didn’t want to become too focused on the precise timing of the next rate hike, and although he didn’t rule out the hike he didn’t confirm it which has caused the Pound to weaken in value.

Sterling had been strengthening recently after the Brexit transitional deal has been agreed and hopes of the rate hike next month, so seeing the GBP/EUR rate drop from its highs isn’t a surprise.

There is still a rate hike likely this year although when it will happen remains to be seen. Next week UK GDP is due out on Friday, so if you’re planning on making a transfer involving the Pound and the Euro do feel free to get in touch as there is plenty of time to plan around next Friday’s release.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.