Category Archives: Eur Forecast

Queens speech vote to influence GBPEUR exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

As Theresa May failed to win the General Election by a majority the Conservative Prime Minister has been in negotiations with the Democratic  Unionist Party (DUP) and a minority Government has been formed. Members of Parliament will have the final vote on the minority Government later this afternoon.

For Jeremy Corbyn to win and effectively vote down the queens speech members of the conservative party will have to vote against Theresa May and I just cant see this happening. Therefore I expect the minority government to be officially formed by the end of the week which could lead to further sterling strength against the Euro and exchange rates to drift towards the mid teen territory.

Looking further ahead Theresa May’s position as Prime Minister will continue to be scrutinised and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the PM resign in the upcoming 6 months. This view is supported by American Financial Service City Group as they informed all of their clients that they expect Theresa May will resign in the upcoming months due to a Conservative rebellion. If she did resign the new Prime Minister could call another General Election which would weigh down on the pound further.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR exchange rates feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you and the process of using the company I work for drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Mark Carney Delivers Boost For Sterling (Ben Fletcher)

The GBP/EUR rate touched 1.14 after a 1.5 cent boost as Mark Carney delivered hope of an interest rate hike this year. The Bank of England two weeks ago voted 5-3 in favour of holding rates but it was the first time in 7 years that 3 voted for a hike. With inflation on the charge then the bank could be forced into making a decision soon.

Governor Mark Carney also stressed that he would have no choice but to consider tapering back the current economic stimulus. The bank currently purchase billions of pounds worth of bonds through quanitivativ easing and there’s hope this may slow down. This will be seen a positive for the UK economy and could have a significant effect on Sterling.

What today’s events go to show is how fast the currency markets can move. There has been enormous pressure on Sterling following the UK election and general uncertainty with the Brexit negotiations. This led to Sterling falling to the low 1.12’s this morning, however in the space of 4 hours the rate jumped 1% into the 1.14’s

How can you capitalise on movements?

The speed of the market movement today signifies how hard it can be to make sure you exchange currency at the correct time. Working for a brokerage I am able to help you set rate alerts as notifications. Furthermore set a limit order that means your currency could be automatically bought at your desired level even if the market only reaches the level for a few seconds.

Over the next few days I think it will be unlikely that sterling will find to much more support, however if there was to be a jump into the mid 1.14’s that would see the market at a 2 week high. If you do have a currency requirement and would like to ask any questions about the information above, please don’t hesitate to send me an email at brf@currencies.co.uk.

A stable government is needed for a Pound rally (Daniel Johnson)

Theresa May’s position has now been brought into question following her call for a snap election and the aftermath. Her decision to call an election when the opposition seemed so weak back fired when the conservatives failed to win a majority victory. Attacking tory core voters was deemed a poor move by senior conservative members. The PM’s stance on Brexit is causing much unrest, with the DUP now in place alongside the conservatives it has been rumored we could be moving towards a softer Brexit. If her stance changes she could be ousted from her position, This could well cause further political uncertainty and could cause the pound to weaken further as investors lose confidence.

For Sterling to rally it is vital a stable government is in place.

Keep a close eye on Brexit negotiations as they unfold this will be key to GBP/EUR buoyancy levels moving forward. The magnitude of these talks should not be underestimated, they are the most important talks for Britain in the last 50 years. Many have the opinion these negotiations could take far longer than the two year target. I think this could well be the case when you take into account the quickest negotiation for the US and another country took four years.

It is important to take into account if that if Brussels choose to play hard ball it could be detrimental to all those involved. Britain is one of the largest economies in Europe, the cost to other countries would be substantial if trade laws become problematic. Germany would be particularly effected when you look at the amount exports to the UK. The car industry would definitely be an area hit.This could cause negotiations to go through more quickly than anticipated, although the two year target still seems unrealistic.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a current provider I will be happy to perform a comparison and I am confident I can demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a few minutes and could potentially save you thousands. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

Brexit talks and the impact on Pound Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

We are now a year on since the Brexit vote when the British public voted to leave the European Union and during this time we have seen huge losses for the Pound against the Euro.

As yet we are no clearer as to whether the UK will opt for a soft or a hard Brexit. Clearly in the interests of the UK and the Pound a soft Brexit would be preferred but this could take a very long time from coming to fruition.

Yesterday, Theresa May was in Brussels speaking about the subject of Brexit and she has suggested that the UK will maintain the rights of EU nationals living in the UK of which there are over 3 million.

The issue though is that the EU has not yet discussed a reciprocal arrangement and that is why the Pound has had a difficult end to the week.

As yet the Tories have still yet to from an alliance with the DUP which is necessary in order to form a majority government.

I think we are only a few days from this happening and when it does take place I expect the Pound to rise against the Euro but I think the gains will be short lived so if you need to buy Euros keep a close eye on the political situation in the UK.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident of being able to offer you better rates when buying currency as well as helping you with various contract types.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling rises as negotiations begin, but will the Pound to Euro rate continue to climb as they continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has edged up today against the Euro as well as against other major currency pairs, making the buying of oversea’s currencies a cheaper proposition than yesterday.

The reason behind the positive movements for the Pound can be put down to the latest updates regarding the Brexit process. It appears that the early stages of the Brexit negotiations are going quite well, which has boosted sentiment surrounding the UK economy moving forward and therefore the Pounds value.

I think that moving forward if the negotiations continue to go relatively smoothly, we can expect to see the Pound begin its recovery from its current levels, especially when when consider how the Pound is trading around historical lows against many currency pairs at the moment.

Against the Euro Sterling has lost around 5 cents over the past month or so, so there’s certainty scope for the currency to gain if things go to plan.

Next week Friday is likely to be once of the busiest days for GBPEUR as GDP data for the UK will be released around 9.30am. The expectations are for 2% annual growth so we’ll see how the currency performs in the wake of the news.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP/EUR Forecast – The Referendum Result a Year On (Matthew Vassallo)

A year ago today, the UK public voted to leave the European Union.

The result of this historic vote has been dissected and discussed ever since but are we any clearer as to what it really means to be ‘OUT’ of the EU?

What we do know is that since that day Sterling has struggled to gain sustained market support, with investors questioning how the UK economy will fare over the coming years.

This uncertainty has sapped investor confidence in the UK economy and the Pound has suffered as a result. GBP/EUR have not broken through 1.20 in the past 12 months, with the current levels of around 1.14 becoming a far fairer reflection of the current value on the pair.

Whilst the current cloud of uncertainty means that long-term predictions are becoming almost futile but what I have been advocating to my clients is that they look to protect their positions wherever possible and look for short-term market spikes.

Investors remain extremely sceptical regarding the upcoming Brexit negotiations, with the negative focus seemingly shifting further towards the UK’s side and away from the EU.

Let’s not forget that the EU are losing an integral member of the single member state, with the ramifications of this as yet, remaining unclear.

We also need to consider the current political vacuum, created by the shock general election results. The Pound is struggling against a divided government and a divided country and until we have a clear economic plan in place to move the UK economy forward, I feel that the Pound will continue in its struggle to make any major inroads.

Whilst this is likely to handicap any major advances for Sterling, EU sellers would be wise to take advantage of the current window of opportunity and remove any on-going risk from this most unstable of markets.

Now is the time to contact a personal currency broker and here I can help guide you through this turbulent market. I assist my clients with the timing of their currency transfers, to ensure that any market value is maximised.

We can offer award winning exchange rates & service, which surpass any of our competitors.

Please feel free to contact me if you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our rates to those of your current provider.

I am available on 0044 1494 725 353 between 08.30-18.00 and just ask one for the team for Matthew. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

How far could the pound fall against the euro (Dayle Littlejohn)

Over the last 8 weeks GBPEUR exchange rates have dropped 6 1/4 cents (5.5%) making a €200,000 purchase £9,250 more expensive.  

The pound has been declining due to Theresa May not winning the UK General election by a majority which has weakened her position as Prime Minister and also her power when negotiating Brexit. This week Brexit negotiations have begun and the PM has already backed tracked and gave the upper hand to the EU by confirming the divorce settlement will have to be decided before trade negotiations begin.

The Bank of England have also been making headline news. Three members of the monetary policy committee surprised the market by voting in favour of hiking interest rates but less than a week later Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney talked down the MPCs decision confirming the Bank of England are not in the position to raise rates.

Looking further ahead I believe the pound could fall further against the euro due to Theresa May remaining under pressure as Prime Minister and Brexit negotiations. It was only 8 months ago when GBPEUR dropped below 1.10 so the scope is there. For euro buyers purchasing sooner rather than later is the safe option. The currency company I work for has the power to undercut any bank or brokerage therefore I would recommend emailing me for a quote drl@currencies.co.uk.

For euro sellers timing is everything. On a daily basis I help clients that have sold property in Europe and are repatriating their euros. With regular market information my clients make informed decisions of when to trade. If you are selling or have sold a property abroad and would like to make the most amount of sterling possible feel free to email me with a brief description and I will respond with the process of using our brokerage drl@currencies.co.uk.

 

Queen’s Speech set to cause swings on GBP/EUR (Daniel Johnson)

Could a firm Government cause a Pound rally

Today at 11.30am we will see the state opening of parliament and the Queen’s speech. This had been delayed as the conservatives and the DUP attempt to put a coalition deal together. There has been rumors the negotiations have been problematic with the DUP stating conservative negotiators have been poor. Let us hope this is not a sign of things  to come considering Brexit negotiations have just begun.

Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question and the current situation is a clear demonstration of what a country without a government does to the value of the currency in question. There is also in house troubles within the Tory party with senior conservative members giving eight days for Theresa May to prove her credential as PM or risk a leadership challenge. If her stance is changed on hard Brexit we could well see this occur. This could happen as the DUP wish to have a soft border between Northern Ireland and Southern Ireland, this would go against May’s plans for a hard borders which would be a feature in a hard Brexit. We are currently in political limbo and many are expecting Sterling to rise in value once we have a government in place. Although this is definitely a probable outcome I am of the opinion a conservative-DUP government is already factored into current exchange rates. The big market mover will be which course of action the government will take in regards to a hard or soft Brexit.

If you have a currency requirement and would like the assistance of a skilled broker feel free to get in touch. If you let me the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free, individual trading strategy. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. (Daniel Johnson)

Brexit talks begin and the impact for Pound Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

The Brexit negotiations have now finally begun after the triggering of Article 50 many weeks ago. We are also almost one year on from the vote to leave the European Union which caused the Pound to plummet by almost 15 cents and as yet it is still not clear whether the UK will opt for a hard or a soft Brexit.

As yet the Conservatives have failed to reach an agreement with the DUP but to me this is just a matter of time. The importance of this arrangement could be key to the Brexit talks as the Irish border is clearly an enormous issue so it could be argued that the DUP could be integral for a softer Brexit.

It is going to take months before a clear picture as to how Brexit will pan out but in the short term I would be surprised to see this have any positive effect when it comes to Sterling vs the Euro.

My reasoning is that there are 27 member states that want to keep the European Union together compared to just the UK so for me I think the talks will be rather difficult as well as protracted which surely cannot help the Pound vs the Euro.

Therefore, if you are looking to buy Euros it may be worth organising this in the short term.

 

Having worked in the foreign exchange markets since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident not only of being able to offer you better exchange rates compared to using your own bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer of currency.

If you would like further information or a free quote when buying or selling Euros and would like to save money then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Will the Brexit negotiations cause problems for the Pound? (Tom Holian)

Sterling against the Euro has been struggling recently owing to what is happening politically and at the time of writing this article the Tories have yet to form an agreement with the DUP. Indeed, when the government had to form a coalition previously it took 20 days to organise.

As we go into next week the Brexit negotiations will start which is almost 12 months to the day since the vote to leave the European Union.

As there is no current majority government there has been no confirmation whether the UK will opt for a hard or a soft Brexit and until this issue is sorted I think the Pound will struggle against the Euro.

We saw a brief recovery in GBPEUR exchange rates on Thursday when the Bank of England confirmed a 5-3 split in favour of keeping interest rates on hold.  This surprise revelation helped to provide the Pound with some small gains vs the single currency but to me I think the gains will be short lived.

Therefore, if you need to send money to Europe it may be worth taking advantage of the current rates. If you don’t have the full amount of money available at the moment it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

Having worked in the foreign exchange markets since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident not only of being able to offer you better exchange rates compared to using your own bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer of currency.

If you would like further information or a free quote when buying or selling Euros and would like to save money then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling rises after Bank of England hints at a rate hike (Joseph Wright)

The Pound appears to have consolidated above 1.14 against the Euro, making the buying Euro rate cheaper for those holding Sterling.

There are current 8 voting members of the BoE and yesterday almost half of them voted in favour of hiking rates, which caused the Pound to jump by over half a cent as soon as the news broke around lunchtime.

The reason behind the Bank of England’s voting members that would like to see a hike is most likely the rising rate of inflation in the UK, which is eating into consumers spending power as wage growth is beginning to stall within the UK.

Raising the interest rate would act to lessen the blow and it’s also a positive for the Pound so I do think we can expect to see the Pound climb if rates are going to rise for the first time in a decade.

Later this morning the Bank of England’s Quarterly Bulletin will be released which could send the markets either way depending on what’s said. If you would like to be kept updated with data releases that can impact your upcoming currency exchange plans do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBPEUR rises due to Bank of England (Dayle Littlejohn)

Earlier in the week UK inflation numbers rose to 2.9%, 0.9% above the Bank of England’s target which gave support for the pound and all eyes turned to today’s Bank of England’s interest rate decision.

Each month members of the Bank of England (8 to be precise), vote to decide whether to hike, keep on hold or cut. This afternoon 3 members voted in favour of raising interest rates which surprised the market and GBPEUR exchange rates increased over a cent and therefore made back some of the losses from the shock UK general election decision. Looking further ahead if inflation levels continue to rise over the next 2 quarters I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bank of England act.

Its a quiet day for economic data that will have a major impact on GBPEUR exchange rates tomorrow. It has been reported that Brexit negotiations will begin Monday morning which surprises me as Theresa May has not formed a government as of yet. Could this happen tomorrow? Once the government is formed I believe this will provide further strength for the pound and GBPEUR exchange rates will start to rise towards 1.15.

The currency company I work for has won numerous awards for exchange rates therefore it enables me to trade GBPEUR / EURGBP at rates better than other UK brokerages and high street banks.

I would recommend emailing me with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Sterling Under Pressure Ahead of BoE Interest Rate Decision (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling remains under pressure, despite a slight upturn following yesterday’s positive inflation data.

GBP/EUR rates hit a high of 1.1407, before retracting following some positive Eurozone employment data. The UK also had its official Unemployment rate released, with the figure of 4.6% coming out as expected.

The markets focus will now turn to tomorrow’s key data releases. UK Retail Sales and the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision & subsequent minutes will take centre stage. Those clients holding Sterling will hoping for a marked improvement on the UK’s economic outlook, with last week’s general election results still handicapping any major advances for the Pound.

However, EUR sellers should also proceed with caution. Any deal between UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s led Conservative party and the unknown and somewhat controversial DUP party could bring with it some political stability and this could help alleviate some of the pressure on Sterling.

Now could be the perfect opportunity to sell any short-term EUR positions and remove any uncertain ty from this extremely fragile and unpredictable market.

The current market is proving increasingly difficult to dissect and as such I am of the opinion that clients both buying and selling GBP/EUR should be looking for short-term opportunities.

On-going concerns regarding our Brexit negotiations are also weighing heavily on investors’ minds and with confidence in are fragmented government hitting new lows over the past few days, I would not be prepared to gamble on which direction GBP/EUR rates may take next.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Political Uncertainty weakens the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

Conservative failure to win a majority weakens Sterling

The PM  faces more negotiations with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to keep her position as prime minister after losing parliament majority just days before EU exit  negotiations are set to take place. It may have been the case that Theresa May would have been better off keeping her mouth shut rather than try and improve her popularity. It was not a clever move attacking her key voters. She said she would make the elderly pay for their own care homes or home care if they have assets to the value of £100k or above.  This no doubt caused a significant swing in votes.

May’s Downing street office announced  she had spoken  with the DUP to discuss completeing a deal this week. Political uncertainty causes the currency in question to weaken and this is definitely the case in this scenario.

May stated “ We will welcome any such deal being agreed , as it will provide the stability and certainty the whole country requires as we embark on Brexit and beyond. As and when details are finalised both parties will put them forward.”

This could prove to be an opportunity for euro buyers. The UK needs to escape of this political limbo in order for the pound to strengthen. It would be wise to keep your eyes glued to developments in order to maximise your return.

Brussels seems to be prepared to make it tough at the beginning of exit talks. They have requested an exit payment before negotiations can commence. The fee named is on excess of €60bn. This does not bode well for Sterling.

If you have a currency transfer to perform  then I will be happy to speak to you directly as I will be willing to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the best possible rate when you do come to trade. A small improvement in a rate can make a significant difference so for the sake of taking a few minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can contact me (Daniel Johnson) on dcj@currencies.co.uk and I will to get back to you as quickly as possible. Thank you for reading.

 

Best rate to sell Euros to buy Pounds since November 2016 (Tom Holian)

The Pound has now dropped to its lowest level to buy Euros since November last year as the political landscape remains uncertain.

Although the Tories managed to succeed as the largest party they did not win enough votes to form a majority government and at the moment talks are continuing between the Conservatives and the DUP in an attempt to conclude the election result.

The Queen’s Speech has been delayed for a few days until things are sorted out with the initial date of June 19th having now been postponed. The speech is one written by the government and outlines its plans for how it will run parliament during its term.

All this news does not bode well for Sterling Euro exchange rates as uncertainty will often cause problems for the currency involved. Previously when the Tories were forced to form a coalition with the Lib Dems back in 2010 it took almost 3 weeks after the election result to have the Queen’s Speech.

I personally think we’ll see further problems ahead for the Pound against the single currency whilst all this uncertainty continues.

The election result may even delay the Brexit talks which were also due to start next week. Until we have some form of agreement then we will be stuck in limbo so I cannot see the Pound making gains vs the Euro in the short term until things settle down.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for almost 15 years I am confident of being able to offer you better exchange rates than using your own bank when buying or selling Euros as well as offering you a number of different contract options typically unavailable from your high street bank.

For further information or for a free quote when exchanging currency then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

General Election causes Pound to fall against the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs the Euro has crashed as the election result caused a big shock for the foreign exchange markets. The fall happened immediately after the release of the first exit polls on Thursday night which showed that a hung parliament would be likely with the Tories not being able to form a majority government.

Even when I saw the release of the initial poll owing to what happened during 2016 when the polls were completely wrong in predicting both the Brexit vote as well as the Trump victory I didn’t have too much faith in them being correct.

However, on this occasion the results were almost spot on and we saw the Pound drop into the 1.12 region at one point on Friday morning.

The Tories failed to achieve a majority government and this led to a fall in value of Sterling vs the Euro and at the time of writing the Tories are looking to sort out an agreement with the DUP.

The Pound managed to put a stop to its losses by midday on Friday and with calls for Theresa May to resign this could have caused further uncertainty for Sterling so as she has stayed this helped the Pound to resist falling further vs the single currency.

The next stumbling block for the Pound will come in just over a week’s time with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel suggesting that there is now no reason to delay the Brexit talks.

As we now know who will be leading the country the talks are due to start on June 19th and as we have already seen in the last few months the European leaders are likely to make the talks as difficult as possible in order to discourage other countries from doing the same.

Therefore, I think the Pound could be under further pressure this month vs all major currencies including the Euro.

If you’re in the process of buying a house in Europe it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

To find out more or for a free quote when buying or selling Euros compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

UK Braces Itself for Election Day – How will GBP/EUR Rates React to the Result? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have remained marooned under 1.15 during Wednesday’s trading, ahead of tomorrow’s UK general election.

With recent polls suggesting the Corbyn led Labour party have gained some momentum, the key question now is what is the likely result and how with the markets react to the final outcome?

Whilst the result seems to be more uncertain over recent days, the Pound did find some support earlier this week. It gained over a cent against the EUR following a tough run over the past week.

The markets have been gearing themselves up towards tomorrow’s key vote and it has been the election and the subsequent outcome, which has been shaping GBP/EUR exchange rates over recent weeks.

Investors had clearly factored in a Conservative majority victory but since reports of a 20-point lead last month, each subsequent poll has indicated a decreasing advantage. This in turn has caused investors to panic, with the result being a sell-off of large Sterling positions and a downturn in the Pound’s value.

I’m extremely wary about pre-election polls, especially after last year’s UK referendum and US election results. However, with strong indications that a hung parliament is now a very real possibility, are you prepared to gamble on the result if you have a short-term Sterling currency exchange to mate?

Personally, I feel that the Pound is fighting an on-going uphill battle and any short-term improvements should be protected wherever feasible. Even a strong Conservative victory will only boost the Pound back to the levels we saw a couple of weeks ago, which have already proved unsustainable over recent months.

Looking beyond Thursdays vote and the UK economy still has many issues to content with. The Brexit negotiations have not even started and seemed to have hit a wall, whilst UK growth forecasts for next year and beyond have shrunk.

I still feel based on current market conditions that the downside risk outweighs the current upside gains and for this reason I would be removing as much risk as possible from the current market.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Election week is heating up. How will it effect the currency market? (Daniel Johnson)

Labor only 4 points behind the Tories

Labor are now very close in the polls to the conservatives. The latest YouGov poll has a gap of just four points. Historically, during an election the currency in question weakens. As a rule, the more uncertain the outcome, the weaker the currency. The conservatives are deemed as a safer bet for the UK economy than Labor. When the snap election was called we saw Sterling strengthen against the majority of major currencies due the significant lead in the polls. This gap has been cut which is why we have seen the pound drop in value.

If the conservatives gain a majority victory I would expect to see Sterling strengthen. If there is not a majority victory expect further falls for the pound. A hung parliament I would expect to see further falls for the pound. Despite many parties stating they are not willing to form a coalition with particular opposition,I’m sure they will soon change their tunes when they see the opportunity for power. As demonstrated by the Lib Dems in 2010.

If there is a coalition this could cause problems for the pound, parties combined with differing manifestos means getting anything through parliament will be problematic, but the major concern is how this will effect brexit trade negotiations. Potentially, Labor could form a coalition with more than one other party which could be considered worst case scenario for negotiations. I would not expect a pound  recovery in the event of this outcome.

If you have a currency requirement it is absolutely crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker who has traded through similar periods of volatility. We have contract options available that can put you in a position to trade even if your funds are not available, this should definitely be considered for those who are waiting on their Euros to released from other assets. This could be a small window of opportunity.

If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to get back to you within 24hrs with a free, trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you already have a currency provider I will be happy to perform a comparison and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to being of help.

 

Election news causes the Pound to wobble against the Euro (Tom Holian)

The Pound has slipped vs the Euro during Friday’s trading session as the most recent opinion poll has shown that the lead for the Tories over Labour has slipped to just 5%.

Previously the Tories were showing a huge lead over the opposition and this data release has caused a big surprise to the markets and we have seen rates to buy Euros with Pounds drop to their lowest level in months.

With the Tories previously expected to win by a huge majority this has led to the Pound weakening as any change in the voting pattern has caused concerns for investors.

Generally speaking if the existing government wins it provides another term of financial stability for UK businesses and therefore this is why the change in the poll has caused the Pound to suffer against the single currency.

Immediately after Easter when Theresa May called a snap general election this saw GBPEUR exchange rates challenge 1.20 on the Interbank level and although they didn’t reach that rate this was the highest we had seen the Pound get to vs the Euro since the end of 2016.

The Pound has also been weakening owing to rising inflation levels. Typically the Bank of England would look at increasing interest rates to combat high inflation levels but with the amount of QE having been used in recent years I cannot see any change in interest rates coming anytime soon.

Therefore, the central bank is struggling what to do next in terms of controlling inflation and this is causing problems for Sterling exchange rates vs the Euro.

With less than two weeks to go if you would like to make a currency transfer and save money compared to using your own bank then why not contact me for a free quote. I work for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and have done since 2003 so I’m confident that a quick email could save you a lot of money.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Terrorist Attack in Manchester (Daniel Johnson)

22 Dead in terrorist attack

Police have now confirmed that 22 people have lost their lives including children and 59 injured after an explosion at an Ariana Grande concert at the Manchester arena. Our thoughts are with all those affected. Terrorist attacks do effect currency, perhaps due to the common occurrence of such atrocities it does not have the same impact as previously. The attack has however contributed to losses for Sterling with GBP/EUR now in the 1.1540s.

UK Election. How will it effect GBP/EUR?

The move to call a snap general election by Theresa May looked to be a shrewd one. Calling an election when the opposition was so weak was thought to almost guarantee a conservative victory. Usually a snap election would cause the currency in question to weaken in value, but on this occasion the opposite occurred. A conservative victory is deemed as positive for the UK economy, investor confidence grew after the announcement and the pound rallied. Since then however the PM has riled her core voters by stating that if the elderly have more than £100k in cash or assets they will pay for their own care. This has caused Corbyn to gain ground on the Conservatives with Labor now only 6 points behind the Tories. Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question. If we look at the last general election we saw volatility very close to the day of the vote. This could create a valuable opportunity for Euro sellers at this election.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker in such volatile times. I will be happy to provide a individual trading strategy to suit your needs with no obligation to trade with us. If you would like to get in touch feel free to e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.