Category Archives: Eur Forecast

Sterling under pressure owing to lacklustre economic data (Tom Holian)

Pound to Euro rates have fallen towards the end of the week after seeing GBPEUR exchange rates recently hit 6 week highs to buy Euros with Sterling.

The fall began on Wednesday with the release of UK Average Earnings which showed a fall and the drop was exacerbated by Friday’s release of lower than expected UK Retail Sales data.

Retail Sales have now hit a 3 year low and this has supported Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s claims that the UK economy could be negatively affected by last year’s Brexit vote.

The first estimate of fourth quarter UK GDP is due out on Wednesday morning and this will be a key data release to influence what happens next to Sterling vs Euro rates.

GDP has been relatively positive in the previous two quarters but if recent Retail Sales are an indication that things slowed down during the final quarter of 2016 this could cause real problems for the Pound’s outlook against the single currency.

As yet it is still not clear as to when Article 50 will be triggered. Uncertainty is something that currency does not respond well to and until we get some clarity as to what the government’s real plans are to leave the European Union I think Sterling will remain under pressure.

Longer term however I think the outlook for Sterling is positive against the Euro as politically we could be in for numerous changes on the continent as Holland and France are due to go to the polls in the next couple of months.

As we saw in 2016 there appears to be a voice of antiestablishment and a search for a change to the current system and if we see these changes occur in Europe then I expect this to result in longer term Euro weakness.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Will Sterling rise against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

Which way will Sterling Euro rates go in the run up to the trigger Article 50 has been asked by my clients many times already and at the moment it is difficult to say.

What is clear is that we had huge movements between GBPEUR rates when the Brexit vote took place and some may assume that we could see similar drops in exchange rates.

However, the Brexit vote came as a big shock to financial markets which is why we saw such falls for Sterling against the Euro but with Article 50 it is clear that it will happen at some point in March so I think this time round the Pound is ready but I think ultimately rates will hinge on whether the UK will opt for a hard or a soft Brexit.

Economic data is rather limited today so with UK Retail Sales due tomorrow morning we could see a rather busy and volatile end to the week.

Generally speaking Retail Sales have been rather positive for the UK so any more of the same could result in GBPEUR rates going in an upwards direction.

Clearly the Pound to Euro rate is being dominated by what is happening politically and for the time being GBPEUR rates will be determined with regards Article 50 but longer term when we have the French elections taking place i think we could see Sterling make some gains as it is unclear as to which party and leader will win.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you better exchange rates than using your own bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer of currency.

If you would like to buy or sell Euros and would like further information or a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Alternatively visit the website directly www.currencies.co.uk

 

Will the Pound to Euro exchange rate struggle to break through 1.18? (Joseph Wright)

It’s been an interesting 24 hours for the GBP/EUR exchange rate after some key economic data releases out of both the UK and the Eurozone.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate did break through 1.18 yesterday morning as investors hoped for a high inflation reading out of the UK for the month of January, but as the figure released came out below analysts expectations the Pound was sold off and almost fell below 1.17 at the inter-bank level.

The reason for the fall is there is less likely to be an interest rate hike from the Bank of England whilst inflation readings aren’t surpassing market expectations.

Now that foreign exchange markets appear to have accepted that the UK will go ahead with a ‘Hard Brexit’ and that it’s likely to begin next month, economic data is beginning to have more of an impact on Sterling’s value whereas prior to the UK PM, Theresa May outlining the governments plans it was mostly sentiment that drove the Pounds value.

Interestingly the Pound has since recovered from yesterday’s fall and the GBP/EUR pair is currently trading around the 1.18 mark once again. It will be interesting to see whether this level will act as a resistance, and I think any readers with an upcoming currency requirement involving the converting of Pounds into Euros may wish to consider the current levels as we could see a fall in the Pounds value as the Brexit begins.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

GBPEUR falls due to UK inflation (Dayle Littlejohn)

Speculation has been rising within the UK this year, that the Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates towards the end of the 2017 due to rising inflation. Inflation has been on the rise due a weaker pound since the EU referendum vote and the bond purchasing program set out by the central bank.

Inflation numbers this morning continued to climb however not at the pace that speculators had anticipated and this led to a sell off off the pound earlier this morning. However the pound has recovered throughout the day. For your euro buys and sellers, if you had been in contact trading at the best points of the day would have generated you an extra cent.

Looking ahead the UK are awaiting the decision from the House of Lords to whether Theresa May can trigger Article50 and therefore start the process of leaving the European Union in March. My personal opinion is that this event will cause sterling weakness and GBPEUR exchange rates will fall therefore making euros more expensive to buy. On a positive note this could be the spike in the market that euro sellers are looking for.

If you reading this website for the first time as you need to convert GBPEUR, feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

If you are already using a brokerage and would like to a free quote email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands.

Common clients I help on a daily basis are Sole traders, MD or FD of a company, property buyers and sellers. If you are one of the three and are currently using the bank to transfer your currency you need to be made aware that you could be saving money!

Sterling Rallies Following Co-op Announcement (Matthew Vassallo)

With no economic data for the UK today, the major talking point was the Co-op banks decision to put itself up for sale. This was welcomed by the Bank of England (BoE), who will continue to monitor the banks “financial resilience” over the coming months.

The Co-op has struggled ever since its near collapse in 2013 but with interest from TSB, there is hope that it can build strength and become a cornerstone in the UK’s banking sector over the coming years.

Whilst talk of failing banks is hardly likely to inspire investors this may well be taken as appositive by the markets, due to the hope of increased stability in the future and this news may well have helped support the Pounds value yesterday and for the coming days.

Currency markets will react to key economic developments and as such any stability and growth in the UK’s financial sector is likely to support the Pound and we may see an improvement over the coming weeks as the situation evolves.

Looking at the markets and the Pound has made gains over the past couple of weeks, with the Pound finding support against a host of major currencies.

The recent market volatility looks set to continue however, with UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit still awaiting approval by the House of Lords.

The Pound gained support following the decision by MP’s to ratify it through the House of Commons and whilst the general consensus is this will be backed up by the House of Lords, a level of uncertainty still remains. It’s for this reason that I have been suggesting to clients holding Sterling that they look for short-term opportunities, rather than hold out for long-term sustainable improvement.

Yes, there is no doubt the Pound has gained a foothold in the market but this is not the first time we’ve seen it make a move towards 1.20, only for market confidence to slip and the Pound to retract. This leads me to the conclusion that the UK economy remains extremely fragile in the eyes of investors and it won’t take a lot for this confidence to be shaken and the Pound will likely suffer as a result.

If you have an upcoming Sterling or Euro currency transfer to make and are concerned about the current market instability, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact us on 0044 1494 725 353 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk and can answer any queries you have about the current market trends & forecasts.

 

Could Sterling improve against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro rates have ended the week close to a high after the release of better than expected GDP data as well as positive manufacturing and industrial production data but have still struggled to make any significant gains vs the Euro recently.

The Pound is still being weighed down by the uncertainty caused by Article 50 and at the moment although the government look to be in control there are undoubtedly more obstacles ahead prior to the triggering of Article 50 next month.

However, although Article 50 will be the main factor in determining what happens to Sterling Euro exchange rates over the next few weeks after that the focus will turn to what is happening politically in Europe.

Political uncertainty causes problems for a currency and with the Dutch and French due to go to the polls in March and May respectively then I think we could see problems in the second quarter for the Euro.

Therefore, if you’re looking at selling Euros in the next few weeks now may be close to your best chance.

Indeed, according to some reports we could see the Euro lose up to 10% of its value if Marine Le Pen gets elected.

Le Pen is in favour of leaving the European Union and the Dutch are also voicing a lot of discontent about the European Union so if we see some political change on the next continent over the next few months then I think this will be Sterling’s real chance of longer term recovery.

In the short term UK inflation data is due out on Tuesday which could cause volatility so if you’re considering making a currency transfer then this is likely to have a big impact on GBPEUR rates so make sure you’re prepared to move quickly.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP EUR Supported after Upbeat UK GDP (James Lovick)

Sterling exchange rates continue to hold at these recent higher levels after a solid week of good gains. Rates for GBP EUR are now sitting at 1.1750 which is presenting anyone that needs to buy Euros with some better buying opportunities. It is only 1 month to go now before Article 50 will be invoked under UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s diary for Brexit.

The Gross Domestic Product figure from the national Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) arrived steady at 0.7% showing no sign of any slowdown in economic growth. There has been little market reaction to the news and it is most likely that it is the overall uncertainty of Brexit which is preventing the pound from pushing higher. The NIESR is an excellent precursor to the official GDP numbers and it is encouraging that there has not been a slide lower which should help keep the pound supported.

In the Eurozone Greece has once again started to dominate the headlines and its inability to reform and difficulty in making its debt repayments could become another problem for the Euro. The Euro really suffered in the Summer of 2015 and it was only when Greece accepted another bailout the Euro started to gain.

On the one hand Brexit is keeping the pressure on the pound but it is my view that once the negotiations get underway the pound could actually perform well against the Euro when considering both the issues of Greece and the EU elections which are just around the corner.

Clients needing to buy or sell Euros would be wise to keep a very close eye on these political developments as the exchange rates will be directly impacted. This is where we can assist in helping you time your foreign exchange transfer.

If you would like further information on sterling or Euro exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Brexit – Still the Key Market Mover (Daniel Johnson)

Where next for Sterling?

GBP/EUR is still very unpredictable and is susceptible to high levels of volatility. Data releases that normally cause significant movement are proving to have little impact. Brexit negotiations are clearly the main force behind current buoyancy levels on GBP/EUR. UK PM Theresa May yesterday was given the go ahead to trigger article 50 following Labour minister, Harriet Harmen’s attempt to make an amendment to the Brexit bill. The change was for EU nationals to have their rights protected if they are already current residents in the UK.

The bill should now go through without too much trouble from the House of Lords. I would expect a far more thorough plan for exit from the EU to be published shortly. The markets react particularly badly to uncertainty, I feel a new white paper document detailing thoroughly exit plans could add certainty to the market and Sterling could rally. Trade negotiations are pivotal to the strength of the pound. Both Trump and Australian PM, Malcolm Turnbull have been forthcoming in regards to striking a deal. This is without a doubt good news for Sterling. I am however dubious of the current two year target for a full exit. Trade negotiations are anything but simple, the quickest the US has  ever tied up a trade agreement with another country is four years.

Later in the year things could well turn sour for the Euro, despite  small improvements in inflation there is still a lot to worry about for Euro sellers.

Three general elections are due to take place in the Netherlands , France and Germany. All have the possibility of a far right party gaining power. Political uncertainty, historically weakens the currency in question. As does a potential referendum. Italian banks are in need of bailouts due to excessive lending to the tune of over €360bn and lets not forget Greece’s debt crisis.

If you have to purchase Euros short- medium term, you will need expert assistance to maximise your return. I will provide the most competitive spread and a trading strategy to suit your needs, with no obligation to trade. Feel free to e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

Daniel Johnson

Foreign Currency Direct

GBP Exchange Rates Slide after High Court Blocks New Case (James Lovick)

The pound has fallen again today against most currencies after a substantial fall across the board yesterday. The Eurozone received unwelcome news in the form of weak retails sales numbers for December although it did little to impact on sterling Euro rates of exchange.

GBP EUR is now sitting just below 1.16 and the drop today is most likely as a result of a court case that was blocked in the high court earlier.
A new court case was put forward to the high court this morning which was being used to try to establish whether Parliament must be consulted on Article 127 of the European Economic Area Treaty.

This tackles the issue of remaining in the single market and whether or not UK Prime Minister Theresa May must go through parliament to give notice of the UK’s departure. However in a twist today the High Court have blocked the legal challenge and have stated that the case is premature. This is a win for the British government today but it also means for the time being that the harder type of Brexit is still the more likely outcome from all of this. To date a so called hard Brexit has proved negative for sterling exchange rates.

With Brexit literally around the corner the pound could come under renewed selling pressure as there is a degree of uncertainty that goes with invoking Article 50. GBP EUR may have considerably further to fall in the short term. Those clients looking to buy Euros would be wise to get in touch as the next 6 weeks are likely to see further pressures on the pound.

If you would like further information on sterling or Euro exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Will February be a positive month for the Pound? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has begun the day positively which could be an indication of how today will unfold, as there is a busy day on the cards for Sterling exchange rates.

Many have coined today ‘Super Thursday’ due to the volume of economic updates which could create volatility between GBP exchange rates. Although no interest rate change is expected the official outcome of the Bank of England’s voting members decision will be announced at 12.00 along with an update on the BoE’s current Quantitative Easing program.

Perhaps the most price sensitive time of the day will be at 12.30 this afternoon when Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England will be giving a speech.

Sentiment surrounding the Pound is positive at the moment as the UK economy continues to impress. Last week GDP figures released showed that the UK is the fastest growing economy within the G7 set of countries and the inauguration of Donald Trump has also boosted sentiment surrounding the UK economy and therefore, the Pound’s value.

If you wish to be kept up to date with the Pound’s price movements and potential key news that could move the markets, feel free to get in touch.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

GBP EUR before Bank of England Meeting (James Lovick)

The pound is hitting resistance at these higher levels with GBP EUR sitting just below 1.17. This week and next could see substantial volatility for sterling exchange rates as the Brexit bill to invoke Article 50 is about to be scrutinised in Parliament.

There are a fairly large number of MP’s who are highly likely to vote against the bill so there is still a chance that Brexit could be delayed if things are held up in the House of Commons and House of Lords.

Any politically sensitive issues that come out of this could see heightened volatility for the pound as the final destination of Brexit could become less clear. Politics continues to be the single largest driver for sterling exchange rates and will continue to do so for some time.

The Bank of England will meet this Thursday to discuss interest rate policy and although no rate change is expected the markets are likely to pick up on any comments from Bank of England governor Mark Carney.

The quarterly inflation report is also released on Thursday and this is likely to be particularly interesting for the Bank of England as to the future path of interest rates. Any suggestion of rising inflation is likely to create a degree of sterling strength as despite an amount of uncertainty that comes with Brexit there is still a real chance that interest rates may start to climb either this year or next. There are likely to be some buying opportunities after the meeting.

European data is relatively light this week although EU Gross Domestic Product figures later today could crate some volatility for Euro exchange rates.

If you would like further information on sterling exchange rates and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Drops Following Brexit Comments (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling lost some ground against the EUR this afternoon, following comments my made by a head EU negotiator regarding the UK’s upcoming Brexit.

He stated that any decision regarding a future deal with the UK would have to be ratified through European Parliament and as such the UK was unlikely to get the deal it wanted following the triggering of Article 50.

This immediately caused investors to pull funds away from Sterling, which has performed well of late against the single currency. GBP/EUR hit a high of 1.1778 earlier today before retracting to 1.6664 this afternoon.

This move is a reminder of how fragile the current market is. I’ve said to my clients that sustainable strength for the Pound is unlikely under current market conditions and as such I would be looking to take advantage of the gains we’ve seen over the past two weeks.

Any further negative comments about Brexit are only likely to intensify these losses and as such I would be looking to protect any short-term Sterling currency requirements by way of a forward contract. I still do not think that there is enough information to hand to make a firm decision either way and whilst the Pound has certainly gained a foothold, there are still many unanswered questions.

Until Article 50 has been approved and we have clearer picture of how we will actually facilitate our exit from the EU, investors are likely to remain sceptical.

For example what trade deals will be negotiated once we have exited the single market? What immigration rights will skilled workers have? What real plan is in place to drive the UK economy forward?

It may well be that the government have answers to these questions but words alone will not be enough to help the Pound recover to pre Brexit highs and I still feel that sustainable Sterling strength is unlikely under the current market conditions.

I do feel that there are many economic and political issues inside the Eurozone that will manifest themselves as we move through 2017 and this in turn could inadvertently boost Sterling’s value, but for the time being I do not envisage GBP/EUR rates breaching 1.20 whilst market conditions remain as they are.

Looking ahead and its Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision and subsequent minutes/press conference, which will be focused on by investors. Any deviation from the expected result and/or comments regarding future rate changes will likely cause additional volatility on GBP/EUR rates.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make and are concerned about the current market instability, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact us on 0044 1494 725 353 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk and can answer any queries you have about the current market trends & forecasts.

Rate to buy Euros with Sterling and the impact of next week’s Eurozone economic data (Tom Holian)

We are in for a big week for anyone looking to buy Euros with Sterling as the focus will turn to Eurozone economic data due to be released early next week.

UK GDP from Thursday has already shown that the British economy has remained resilient during the final quarter of 2016 and that the Brexit uncertainty has not had the negative effect that some experts previously had predicted.

On Monday of next week Eurozone data begins with the release of Consumer Confidence as well as Industrial Confidence data. This is likely to cause some volatility for GBPEUR rates but personally I think Tuesday’s data will cause the most movement for the Pound vs the Euro.

On Tuesday the Eurozone announces Inflation, GDP and Unemployment data. Each data release is extremely important in its own right and all three are due to be released within an hour of each other which is rather unusual so in my opinion this could cause huge movements for Sterling vs the Euro shortly after the release on Tuesday morning.

Therefore, it is important that you keep a close eye on what is happening with rates as this is likely to affect the value of Sterling vs the Euro but it is not yet clear whether the data will be positive or negative.

Sterling has been trying to get towards 1.20 recently and has struggled to get past 1.18 during this month but if the data is negative for the Eurozone early next week this could be the catalyst needed to send GBPEUR rates in the direction of 1.20.

However, the ongoing discussions concerning the Brexit are likely to weigh heavily on Sterling so the opportunity to buy at slightly higher rates could be limited.

To be kept up to date with what is happening between Sterling and the Euro or if you have a currency transfer to make then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

I have worked in the fx industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and therefore I am able to offer you bank beating rates.

For a free quote please email me with a brief outline of what you need to do and I’ll happily respond.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

May delivers controversial exit bill (Daniel Johnson)

Anger at Exit Bill, brief is an understatement

There was anger from parliament today after May delivered the exit bill and it was only 130 words. MP’s will only get five days to debate and amend it. Minsters had stated  they would keep legislation limited, but this is slightly ridiculous at just eight lines. Labour immediately attacked the bill and Jeremy Corbyn is now in an awkward position.

Corbyn could call for a vote against the time table, but he had previously stated he would not obstruct the exit process. It seems to be a shrewd move from May to try and get her own way with regards to the Brexit process, however this move can hardly be considered democratic. It is about time politicians stopped thinking about there own political agendas and did what is best for the UK. Chance would be a fine thing.

Tim Farrow the Lib Dem leader was unimpressed stating “This bill is short and not sweet”. Given how long he’s been campaigning to leave the EU, it’s amazing this 133 word bill took David Davis such a long time – that’s only five words a day since Brexit. Take back control was a mantra of the leave campaign, but this government’s extreme reluctance to involve parliament in this process has instead been an affront to parliamentary sovereignty and democracy. With Labour  tonally confused over Brexit and the Conservatives determined to take us out of Europe and the single Market at any cost, only the Liberal Democrats are fighting for full membership of the Single Market and a public vote on the final deal.”

The Bill also curiously does not include May’s final day for Brexit, 31st March. Which questions time scale. The markets have not showed much movement at present, probably due to investor’s having so little to  go on.

There are high levels of volatility expected during the Brexit process and it is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you require my assistance please do get in touch for no obligation help. You can e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

When should I buy Euros with Sterling? (Tom Holian)

The rate to buy Euros with Sterling has seen a dramatic improvement over the last fortnight following Theresa May’s rather bullish speech when she stated that the government would seek parliamentary approval with regards the Brexit issue.

However, even though UK GDP came out better than expected we have seen a surprise fall for Sterling vs the single currency this morning although the Pound has now shot back up to where it was at the start of the trading session.

It appears as though Sterling is now on a general trend in an upwards direction against the Euro and the stumbling block which was the Supreme Court verdict has now been hurdled successfully.

We are clearly not out of the woods for Sterling but at least for the time being things are going in the right direction and we could see further gains next week as we end the month.

Tomorrow afternoon US GDP data is released and often with US data this causes a lot of movement for global currency rates. If the data is positive this could end up with Dollar strength and Euro weakness creating some better opportunities to buy Euros with Sterling.

Therefore, we could be in for a volatile end to the week and I think we could see Sterling end the week on a high.

If you’re worried about the ongoing uncertainty caused by the Brexit issues and have a currency purchase to make in the near future it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

Having worked for www.currencies.co.uk for over 14 years I am confident that not only can I offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your transfer.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

GBP/EUR exchange rate now approaching 1.17, but will new Brexit fears weaken the Pound? (Joseph Wright)

Yesterday morning the Supreme Court delivered its verdict on whether or not the UK government require parliamentary approval before invoking Article 50, creating some large swings between the GBP/EUR exchange rate.

The Supreme Court decided to uphold the High Court’s decision, meaning that Theresa May will need to consult parliament before formally beginning the Brexit process. Many had expected this outcome to result in Sterling strength and initially the Pound did spike upward, but further complications soon weighed on the Pound causing it to drop.

Moving forward the Pound could continue to come under pressure as one of the key announcements yesterday was that the UK government does not need the permission of the UK’s devolved nations before invoking Article 50. Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon was quick to raise this point and suggested the need for another Scottish Independence referendum.

Sterling came under significant pressure during the last referendum on Scottish independence, and should the matter surface once again it’s likely we can expect to see the Pound soften in value due to further uncertainty on the horizon.

Outside of Brexit related news tomorrow morning could be eventful for Sterling exchange rates as UK GDP figures will be released at 9.30 am tomorrow morning, and the expectation is for a 0.5% through the 4th quarter of 2016.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

Markets Await Supreme Court Ruling (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has made further gains against the EUR today, as the markets await tomorrow’s Supreme Court ruling.

GBP/EUR rates have hit a high of 1.1635, meaning that Sterling’s value has increased by over three cents against its EUR counterpart since early last week.

The Supreme Court must decide as to whether they are going to back up the original ruling of the High Court, who had decided that Article 50 needs to be ratified by MP’s before in can be triggered by the UK government.

Article 50 will officially start the process of the UK’s Brexit and as such has a huge bearing on the UK economy and ultimately any decision is likely to have a knock on effect on the value of the Pound.

It is widely anticipated that the Supreme Court will support the High Court’s decision, which in turn means that MP’s may well look towards a softer Brexit than most anticipated. This in turn is likely to help support Sterling’s value and as such is being priced into the current exchange rates.

Therefore I do not necessarily expect an aggressive spike should the anticipated result come to fruition but any result against the grain could cause cause the Pound’s value to decrease quickly.

The current market remains unpredictable and Sterling’s value has wavered excessively over recent weeks. Every time the UK economy takes a step forward it is knocked back and the Pound remains handicapped by the on-going uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

I have said to clients they should be looking for short-term opportunities rather than long-term sustainable improvement until the picture becomes clearer regarding how we will facilitate our exit from the EU and the deals that are in place subsequently.

If you have an upcoming currency transfer to make and are concerned about the current market instability, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact us on 0044 1494 725 353 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk and can answer any queries you have about the current market trends & forecasts.

Will the Pound go up against the Euro following Trump’s inauguration? (Tom Holian)

Sterling has made some very positive movements vs the single currency over the course of the last few days as Prime Minister Theresa May announced her 12 point plan for her Brexit strategy on Tuesday.

She announced that the UK would have no choice but to leave the single market if we are to leave the European Union but she carried on to say that we would look for the very best possible terms for the UK which would include renegotiating the current free trade deals with Europe.

This would also include looking at new trade deals with other countries outside of Europe and with Donald Trump now having been fully inaugurated into the White House this could be rather positive as Trump was very pro-Brexit during last year’s campaign.

Trump has also previously suggested that he would put the UK near the front of the queue when it comes to doing business so we could see the Pound make gains vs the Euro going into next week.

With the Supreme Court judgement announcement now expected to come out on Tuesday we could see further volatility for Sterling Euro exchange rates but my inkling is that we’ll see the Pound strengthen vs the Euro as it is potentially one less hurdle for Theresa May to worry about.

Going into next week I expect the markets to remain stable until the judgement due on Tuesday so it is important that you keep a close eye on what happens to GBPEUR rates if you need to make a currency transfer.

 

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates when buying or selling Euros compared to using your own bank or other currency broker then feel free to contact me for further information or for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Has Sterling’s Run Come to an End? (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has been on an impressive run against the EUR this week, following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit speech on Tuesday.

In it she outlined plans for our breakaway from the EU, finally giving the markets some detailed information on how the government hope to facilitate our exit.

Her tone was bullish as she claimed ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ with the EU but remained hopeful that a trade agreement would be put in place with our closet trading partners. She also went on to state that we would leave the single market completely but I think there is a growing understanding between the UK government and key EU figureheads that both economies need each other.

There will a lot of political jostling as the EU cannot be seen to be weak and giving away too much, for fear of creating a domino effect, where other countries inside the block may look to leave. We need to remember that the UK is the financial hub of Europe and as such it does give us a stronger bargaining position than most.

However, despite this step forward there are still many unanswered questions and May’s plans are purely hypothetical at this stage. The Pound is benefiting from some concrete information, which has brought back a level of investor confidence to the UK economy. I still do not think that an aggressive spike for Sterling is sustainable but the Pound certainly looks to have gained a foothold following the recent developments.

With key political elections in the Netherlands, France & Germany this year and increase in support for the far right movement, the political landscape could look very different by the end of this year and any instability or uncertainty is unlikely to help support any major advances for the EUR.

All of this leads me to the conclusion that EUR sellers should be protecting themselves and taking advantage of the current levels, as they may well look extremely attractive in months to come.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfers to make and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact us on 0044 1494 725 353 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Draghi causes Euro weakness (Daniel Johnson)

Inflation worries will not dissipate

Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) spoke after Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released. CPI is a measure of price movements by the comparison between various retail products and services. It is a key indicator of inflation. Draghi caused the Euro to weaken stating that the previous strong inflation data was not enough to take pressure off the ECB. Data today came in as expected with no improvement on the previous month.

Inflation has been  a key issue for the Eurozone, at some points bordering close to deflation. Quantitative Easing (QE) has been put in place in an attempt to combat deflation. The ECB recently dropped monthly increments from €80bn to €60bn in a bold move. I tend to agree with Draghi, I think there are serious issues with regards to inflation in the Eurozone, one set of data by no means indicates a steady rise in inflation.

GBP/EUR Outlook

This year the GBP/EUR pairing will no doubt be extremely volatile. There is still a huge degree of uncertainty surrounding Brexit. A two year target for a full exit from the EU is unrealistic, borderline ridiculous. Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK ambassador for the EU recently resigned stating a realistic time frame for trade negotiations is more like ten years.

The Eurozone could be in for a very turbulent time with three General elections within the bloc. The Netherlands, France and Germany all have the outside chance of having a right wing government coming to power. This would mean there is the strong possibility of another referendum which would cause severe Euro weakness. When you add Greek debt, Italian bank’s bad loans in excess of €360bn and struggling inflation, things are not looking to rosy for the Eurozone.

It is wise to be in touch with an experienced broker during such volatile times. I can keep you up to date with spikes in your favour and also provide a free trading strategy to try and maximise your return. If you already have a currency provider, drop me an e-mail with the rate you have been offered and I am very confident I will be able to show you a significant saving. If you would like to get in touch feel free to contact me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.