Category Archives: Other Currencies

Eurozone Inflation To Cause Volatility (Ben Fletcher)

This morning the latest Inflation data will be released for the Eurozone which should provide an indication as to what the European Central Bank will decide to do in the next few weeks. Many analysts at the moment believe the ECB will start to reduce the amount of economic stimulus as early as September however if the EU economic data is not strong then that’s less likely to happen.

The Euro has been putting significant pressure under Sterling with many investors choosing to back the single markets major currency. There has been considerable growth across the EU with output data at one of its highest in years and future confidence soaring. Most of this strength has come from France and Germany but there also appears to be optimism that the Greek and Italian economies will this year grow.

There is still the small issue of multi-billions worth of bailout funds and it seems incredibly unlikely that those funds will ever be paid back. The Greek pension fund has already been completely raided and the higher tax bracket is considerably over 60%, which makes you think if the economy doesn’t start to grow there is nothing more to give and no more room for squeezing.

Today with the general downward movement of the GBP/EUR I would not be surprised to see the 1.09 level tested.

I am in a position to help you execute a transfer and I am confident I can offer you the best rates. Therefore if you do have a question with regards to my forecast please get in touch. When it comes to moving large sums of money a movement of a cent can often relate to a significant difference in your returns. Helping you formulate a strategy could make sure you’re in the best position to exchange currency when the market is in your favor, please contact me Ben Fletcher at brf@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Short Term Forecast – Will Sterling Strengthen? (Ben Fletcher)

Sterling has been under continuous pressure these past few months presenting the opportunity for people to sell Euros back at some of the best levels in 9 months. Each week the range in which the GBP/EUR rate resides at has fallen nearly a cent suggesting there is more potential for the rate to continue to fall. If you have been waiting to sell Euros back to Pounds and are still holding on, the next month might be the best time.

German Election

At the end of September Germany will head to the polls in what is thought to be a non-event to re-elect current Chancellor Angela Merkel. Whilst Merkel is the major favourite there has been some surprising events that have taken place around the globe in the past year and anything unexpected could create Euro weakness. At the moment there doesn’t really appear to be any major rivals and the concern that Nationalist parties were coming back seems to have died down. Merkel was heavily criticised by many in her own country for welcoming 1 million refugees, however in the light of no other viable leaders her tenure looks set to continue.

From the perspective of the GBP/EUR rate, over the next month we may see some Euro weakness start to creep in due to election uncertainty. But by that point the GBP/EUR may be close to moving below the 1.10 level, which in my opinion would be a best case scenario for Euro sellers.

If you have a upcoming requirement you would like to discuss or ask any questions about the comments please send me an email briefly explaining your requirement at brf@currencies.co.uk. I would be more than happy to share my thoughts and try to help you develop a plan that will enable you to maximise your transfer. I will aim to respond within a few hours.

GBP/EUR, Calm Before the Storm? (Ben Fletcher)

Yesterday the GBP/EUR rate hardly moved half a cent across the whole of the day with very little changing in the market. Until the drop on Friday due to poor economic data for the UK, the rate had spent most of the week hovering around the 1.14 mark. This morning the rate is back above 1.13 and in my opinion there could be a opportunity for the rate to lift a little today.

MPC Members Speak Today

Two of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members will speak today Andy Haldane and Dr Ben Broadbent. The MPC are thought to be investigating whether a interest rate hike would be beneficial for the UK in the short term future. The two committee members who vote with the other 7 will provide their insights, if they’re hawkish and suggest a hike may happen that could provide market optimism boosting Sterling. Alternatively Andy Haldane is returning for his second stint on the MPC and was previously known for his Dovish attitude. There is of course every chance this is a non-event, but with little positivity around for Sterling any spikes in the market should be capitalised on.

In my opinion over the course of the next few weeks the GBP/EUR rate may move back towards the 1.14 but I find it hard to see anything much more substantial happening. The second round of Brexit talks will begin next week and we may get some further updates into how they’re progressing. However Theresa May is coming under so much pressure in the UK, even as much so that MP’s are calling for her resignation. If May was to resign then another general election would only add to further uncertainty and the GBP/EUR rate may drop below 1.10.

If you would like to ask me any further questions with regards to my forecast, please feel free to send me an email to brf@currencies.co.uk. If you send me a brief description of what you’re looking to achieve, I will respond within a few hours. Hopefully I can assist with devising a strategy to help you achieve your goal and potentially help execute the trade.

UK Inflation to set the tone for Pound Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

We begin the morning with UK construction data due out at 930am with expectations of a possible fall but the real movement for Pound vs the Euro exchange rate is likely to come with the latest set of Inflation Report Hearings due out this morning.

UK inflation has been rising recently to the level of 2.9% compared to the target level of 2%. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is likely to be questioned and any suggestion that interest rates may be coming back on the agenda could lead to some movement for the Pound vs the Euro.

Indeed, this could see the Pound making some gains vs the single currency if there is any hint that an interest rate hike may be coming sooner than expected.

Tomorrow sees the latest release of PMI Services sector data for the UK and as this sector makes up such a huge amount of our overall GDP this could cause volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates.

On Thursday arguably one of the biggest data releases of the week is the latest NIESR GDP estimate. Although this is not the official data it is very up to date as it measures the last three months of the UK’s performance.

This could be the biggest market mover of the week so if you’re in the process of thinking about buying currency in the near future keep a close eye on what happens on Thursday morning immediately after the data release.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident of being able to save you money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank. 

If you would like further information or a free quote when buying or selling Euros then contact me via email below and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

A stable government is needed for a Pound rally (Daniel Johnson)

Theresa May’s position has now been brought into question following her call for a snap election and the aftermath. Her decision to call an election when the opposition seemed so weak back fired when the conservatives failed to win a majority victory. Attacking tory core voters was deemed a poor move by senior conservative members. The PM’s stance on Brexit is causing much unrest, with the DUP now in place alongside the conservatives it has been rumored we could be moving towards a softer Brexit. If her stance changes she could be ousted from her position, This could well cause further political uncertainty and could cause the pound to weaken further as investors lose confidence.

For Sterling to rally it is vital a stable government is in place.

Keep a close eye on Brexit negotiations as they unfold this will be key to GBP/EUR buoyancy levels moving forward. The magnitude of these talks should not be underestimated, they are the most important talks for Britain in the last 50 years. Many have the opinion these negotiations could take far longer than the two year target. I think this could well be the case when you take into account the quickest negotiation for the US and another country took four years.

It is important to take into account if that if Brussels choose to play hard ball it could be detrimental to all those involved. Britain is one of the largest economies in Europe, the cost to other countries would be substantial if trade laws become problematic. Germany would be particularly effected when you look at the amount exports to the UK. The car industry would definitely be an area hit.This could cause negotiations to go through more quickly than anticipated, although the two year target still seems unrealistic.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a current provider I will be happy to perform a comparison and I am confident I can demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a few minutes and could potentially save you thousands. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

GBP/EUR Forecast – The Referendum Result a Year On (Matthew Vassallo)

A year ago today, the UK public voted to leave the European Union.

The result of this historic vote has been dissected and discussed ever since but are we any clearer as to what it really means to be ‘OUT’ of the EU?

What we do know is that since that day Sterling has struggled to gain sustained market support, with investors questioning how the UK economy will fare over the coming years.

This uncertainty has sapped investor confidence in the UK economy and the Pound has suffered as a result. GBP/EUR have not broken through 1.20 in the past 12 months, with the current levels of around 1.14 becoming a far fairer reflection of the current value on the pair.

Whilst the current cloud of uncertainty means that long-term predictions are becoming almost futile but what I have been advocating to my clients is that they look to protect their positions wherever possible and look for short-term market spikes.

Investors remain extremely sceptical regarding the upcoming Brexit negotiations, with the negative focus seemingly shifting further towards the UK’s side and away from the EU.

Let’s not forget that the EU are losing an integral member of the single member state, with the ramifications of this as yet, remaining unclear.

We also need to consider the current political vacuum, created by the shock general election results. The Pound is struggling against a divided government and a divided country and until we have a clear economic plan in place to move the UK economy forward, I feel that the Pound will continue in its struggle to make any major inroads.

Whilst this is likely to handicap any major advances for Sterling, EU sellers would be wise to take advantage of the current window of opportunity and remove any on-going risk from this most unstable of markets.

Now is the time to contact a personal currency broker and here I can help guide you through this turbulent market. I assist my clients with the timing of their currency transfers, to ensure that any market value is maximised.

We can offer award winning exchange rates & service, which surpass any of our competitors.

Please feel free to contact me if you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our rates to those of your current provider.

I am available on 0044 1494 725 353 between 08.30-18.00 and just ask one for the team for Matthew. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling rises after Bank of England hints at a rate hike (Joseph Wright)

The Pound appears to have consolidated above 1.14 against the Euro, making the buying Euro rate cheaper for those holding Sterling.

There are current 8 voting members of the BoE and yesterday almost half of them voted in favour of hiking rates, which caused the Pound to jump by over half a cent as soon as the news broke around lunchtime.

The reason behind the Bank of England’s voting members that would like to see a hike is most likely the rising rate of inflation in the UK, which is eating into consumers spending power as wage growth is beginning to stall within the UK.

Raising the interest rate would act to lessen the blow and it’s also a positive for the Pound so I do think we can expect to see the Pound climb if rates are going to rise for the first time in a decade.

Later this morning the Bank of England’s Quarterly Bulletin will be released which could send the markets either way depending on what’s said. If you would like to be kept updated with data releases that can impact your upcoming currency exchange plans do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Sterling Under Pressure Ahead of BoE Interest Rate Decision (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling remains under pressure, despite a slight upturn following yesterday’s positive inflation data.

GBP/EUR rates hit a high of 1.1407, before retracting following some positive Eurozone employment data. The UK also had its official Unemployment rate released, with the figure of 4.6% coming out as expected.

The markets focus will now turn to tomorrow’s key data releases. UK Retail Sales and the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision & subsequent minutes will take centre stage. Those clients holding Sterling will hoping for a marked improvement on the UK’s economic outlook, with last week’s general election results still handicapping any major advances for the Pound.

However, EUR sellers should also proceed with caution. Any deal between UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s led Conservative party and the unknown and somewhat controversial DUP party could bring with it some political stability and this could help alleviate some of the pressure on Sterling.

Now could be the perfect opportunity to sell any short-term EUR positions and remove any uncertain ty from this extremely fragile and unpredictable market.

The current market is proving increasingly difficult to dissect and as such I am of the opinion that clients both buying and selling GBP/EUR should be looking for short-term opportunities.

On-going concerns regarding our Brexit negotiations are also weighing heavily on investors’ minds and with confidence in are fragmented government hitting new lows over the past few days, I would not be prepared to gamble on which direction GBP/EUR rates may take next.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Political Uncertainty weakens the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

Conservative failure to win a majority weakens Sterling

The PM  faces more negotiations with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to keep her position as prime minister after losing parliament majority just days before EU exit  negotiations are set to take place. It may have been the case that Theresa May would have been better off keeping her mouth shut rather than try and improve her popularity. It was not a clever move attacking her key voters. She said she would make the elderly pay for their own care homes or home care if they have assets to the value of £100k or above.  This no doubt caused a significant swing in votes.

May’s Downing street office announced  she had spoken  with the DUP to discuss completeing a deal this week. Political uncertainty causes the currency in question to weaken and this is definitely the case in this scenario.

May stated “ We will welcome any such deal being agreed , as it will provide the stability and certainty the whole country requires as we embark on Brexit and beyond. As and when details are finalised both parties will put them forward.”

This could prove to be an opportunity for euro buyers. The UK needs to escape of this political limbo in order for the pound to strengthen. It would be wise to keep your eyes glued to developments in order to maximise your return.

Brussels seems to be prepared to make it tough at the beginning of exit talks. They have requested an exit payment before negotiations can commence. The fee named is on excess of €60bn. This does not bode well for Sterling.

If you have a currency transfer to perform  then I will be happy to speak to you directly as I will be willing to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the best possible rate when you do come to trade. A small improvement in a rate can make a significant difference so for the sake of taking a few minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can contact me (Daniel Johnson) on dcj@currencies.co.uk and I will to get back to you as quickly as possible. Thank you for reading.

 

Election week is heating up. How will it effect the currency market? (Daniel Johnson)

Labor only 4 points behind the Tories

Labor are now very close in the polls to the conservatives. The latest YouGov poll has a gap of just four points. Historically, during an election the currency in question weakens. As a rule, the more uncertain the outcome, the weaker the currency. The conservatives are deemed as a safer bet for the UK economy than Labor. When the snap election was called we saw Sterling strengthen against the majority of major currencies due the significant lead in the polls. This gap has been cut which is why we have seen the pound drop in value.

If the conservatives gain a majority victory I would expect to see Sterling strengthen. If there is not a majority victory expect further falls for the pound. A hung parliament I would expect to see further falls for the pound. Despite many parties stating they are not willing to form a coalition with particular opposition,I’m sure they will soon change their tunes when they see the opportunity for power. As demonstrated by the Lib Dems in 2010.

If there is a coalition this could cause problems for the pound, parties combined with differing manifestos means getting anything through parliament will be problematic, but the major concern is how this will effect brexit trade negotiations. Potentially, Labor could form a coalition with more than one other party which could be considered worst case scenario for negotiations. I would not expect a pound  recovery in the event of this outcome.

If you have a currency requirement it is absolutely crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker who has traded through similar periods of volatility. We have contract options available that can put you in a position to trade even if your funds are not available, this should definitely be considered for those who are waiting on their Euros to released from other assets. This could be a small window of opportunity.

If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to get back to you within 24hrs with a free, trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you already have a currency provider I will be happy to perform a comparison and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to being of help.

 

Buying Euro rates soften as markets digest news of Manchester attack (Joshua Privett)

Pound to Euro exchange rates had undergone a further softening into the lower 1.15’s amid an anxious climate in the UK following the Manchester Arena bombing last night.

Rates had previously been falling in response to underwhelming data emerging from the UK economy concerning the diminishing potential for a UK interest rate rise.

This was further compounded by comments made by Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, yesterday who stated that the Euro was ‘too weak’ and she would like to see it gain value. These are the kind of comments which cause the short-term rally for the Euro.

However, since then, likely due to the likelihood that the situation in Manchester is contained for now, the pressure on the Pound brought out by apprehension forced by the attack abated, and, as such, GBP/EUR exchange rates were getting very close to 1.1 at the time of writing this article.

However, I would not expect this to continue. As the above suggests the underlying trend before the completely horrific attack yesterday was GBP/EUR negative. Without these being addressed it is likely the Pound will continue to remain pressured in the short-term, so Euro buyers should seriously consider their situation and the sensibility in securing an exchange rate sooner rather than later.

As such anyone with a very short-term requirement to buy Euros may be wise to contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask to be put through to Joshua to discuss a live price for your transfer and avoid being ‘last to the party’.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a short conversation could save you a healthy sum on your next transfer.

Anyone with a slightly longer term transfer can also contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in the run up to the election aimed at maximising your currency return.

Is the Pound to Euro rate trading at the top of its current trend? (Joseph Wright)

Many of our clients planning a GBP to EUR currency exchange have been waiting for some time for the GBP/EUR rate to exceed 1.20.

The pair have been locked between a wide trading range of 1.10 to 1.20 pretty much since the initial shock of the Brexit vote last June, and on a number of occasions the pair have bounced off of 1.20 as the level appears to be acting as a psychological barrier.

Whilst many are playing the waiting game some have based their trades off of mid-market levels in the high teens such as 1.19 – 1.1950 and so far this appears to be the smartest move.

Interestingly analysts at Lloyds bank have recently stated that they believe the Pound is trading at fair value against the Euro at its current levels, and that they aren’t expecting to see the Pound climb much higher.

Personally I think we will see the Pound to Euro rate test 1.20 once again but I think there will need to be a large weakening of the Euro specifically if we are to see the GBP/EUR pair exceed 1.20.

Later today UK GDP data will be released with 0.4% on a quarterly basis the expectation, so expect any deviations from this level to result in GBP/EUR volatility, and feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept updated regarding this figure.

 If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Article 50 triggered so what next for Pound to Euro rates? (Tom Holian)

With Article 50 now having been triggered we have not seen some of the volatility on Pound Euro exchange rates that many were expecting.

The event itself left markets with little to move on and so the foreign exchange markets as well as global stock markets remained relatively flat.

The UK has now formally triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and as we have officially started the Brexit process we have now passed the point of no return.

Prime Minister Theresa May went on to try and reassure markets that the UK will be looking for the best possible deal for the UK and she is hoping to make ‘close ties’ with Europe.

I think the speech gave some reassurance to Sterling but as the trigger was expected to happen Pound to Euro rates did not see much movement.

Therefore, the focus will once again turn back to economic data.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence data is due out shortly and this is likely to impact Sterling Euro rates.

Tomorrow we could see a big day for the short term trend for Pound Euro exchange rates with a number of different data releases due to come.

On Friday UK GDP data is due out at 930am followed by Eurozone Consumer Price Index at 10am so expect to see big swings on GBPEUR exchange rates during Friday morning as both data releases are expected to be positive for both sides

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that I can offer you bank beating exchange rates. 

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like a free quote when either buying or selling Euros then email me directly with your particular requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Pound drops as UK government plans to trigger Article 50 this afternoon (Joseph Wright)

Late last night Prime Minister Theresa May signed the letter triggering Article 50, and this letter will be delivered to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk later this afternoon at 12.30pm.

This will officially start the Brexit process in which the UK has 2 years to leave the European Union, and in this time the UK will be doing its best to set up trade negotiations both in Europe and outside of it.

In the early hours of this morning the Pound dropped, which is a change to the currency’s general direction over the past week or so as we’ve seen the currency gain. Yesterday the pair hit 1.16 which was GBP/EUR’s highest level since the beginning of the month, and since this mornings drop the Pound has recovered some ground as it appears the currency is struggling for direction.

I think there could be some further swings during today’s trading session, especially this afternoon once Article 50 has been triggered and May offers a speech. Should she give anything away regarding the UK’s plans moving forward I think there could be movement in either direction for the Pound’s value.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding major news and movements within GBP exchange rates do feel free to get in touch.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

How will the Invocation of Article 50 effect GBP/EUR? (Daniel Johnson)

Could we see Sterling strength?

I feel my opinion on this one is slightly controversial, I am going against the grain. I think that once the dust settles Sterling will sit in a better position than we sit now (1.16). I would not expect significant gains however.

The market moves on rumour as well as fact. We see big swings on the exchange when something unforeseen occurs. The triggering of Article 50 is a certainty and we know the date it will occur, Wednesday 29th March. I think this is already factored into current buoyancy levels on GBP/EUR.

When to move GBP – EUR

Despite my prediction, I would not perform my entire trade after the event. I would move in tranches, maybe 30% – 40% before hand in order to protect myself from potential losses. I had several clients during the Brexit vote last year convinced we would remain and Sterling would rally, rather than move in tranches, they put all their eggs in one basket. When results came through some clients found their property purchases had become tens of thousands more expensive.

There is bound to be volatility, many seven figure investors are waiting for this event before pushing the button.

If you are holding Euros I would not procrastinate too long, I think the single currency could be in for a rough year. There are two general elections within the Eurozone this year, both of which could see a far-right party gain power, which would result in a referendum. We have already seen the damage caused to Sterling by a referendum. Also keep in mind Italian banks’ bad loans now above the €360bn mark and Greek debt and we could see big falls in Euro value.

If you would like my assistance with your currency requirements I will be happy to help. I will provide an indivdual trading strategy to suit your needs and also provide a comparison against your current provider. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Dutch Election could weaken the Euro (Daniel Johnson)

If  Wilders gains power it could mean big trouble for the EU

The Dutch general election is upon us and Geert Wilders, the head of the far-right, Party of Freedom is currently in the lead. Wilders has stated he will close mosques, ban the Koran and leave the EU. We have seen his popularity gain momentum following clashes in the Netherlands with the Turkish who have been denied the right to protest about constitutional changes. He has since dropped four seats.

Although Wilders currently leads in the election, with twenty-eight parties in the election it is common place that a coalition is needed. Due to his radical stance on immigration other parties are reluctant to join Wilders, however could party leaders change their mind when the opportunity to gain power becomes available.

If Wilders does get in, a referendum is on the cards, we have already witnessed the damage a referendum can bring on a currency taking Sterling as an example. I would expect the Euro to weaken substantially should Wilders gain power.

US Interest Rate Decision

Today will see the Federal Reserve US interest rate decision. It is widely anticipated there will be a raise in rates. Odds currently at 90% the hike will occur. The market moves on rumour as well as fact so I am of the opinion the hike is already factored into current rates. I would not expect huge gains for the Dollar. It would be a shock however if rates remained unchanged, if this were the outcome the dollar could weaken substantially.

EUR/USD is the most frequently traded currency pair in the world, if there is an exodus from the Euro once a hike is confirmed we could see an opportunity for Euro buyers.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker during such volatile times. I will provide a free, no obligation trading strategy and also demonstrate the rates I can achieve. I can provide a comparison against your current provider if required. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

Pound to Euro exchange rates may be set for further decline (Joshua Privett)

Sterling saw a very gradual decline throughout last week against most currencies, most noticeably on Pound to Euro exchange rates, which saw a good chun of the gain made during February on the pairing evapourate fairly quickly.

The reason for the Pound’s deterioration was also due to surprise events last week which was a stark reminder to how fluid the current political landscape is, and how this is translating into changing trends on GBP/EUR rates of exchange.

The first surprise came in the confident dismissal of the House of Lords’ attempts to amend the Brexit Bill. Whilst many can agree with the morality of their attempts, what currency markets have seen is the ineffectuality of the Lords’ attempts to intervene.

Markets are much more concerned with the guarantee of a Parliamentary vote on any eventual deal reached with the EU, this now seems much less likely of being realised.

With Article 50 now just around the corner, Pound to Euro exchange rates are now gradually declining with the news.

 

Next week the calender looks fairly quiet for economic performance date for the UK or the Eurozone to affect currency rates of exchange, so this current trend could continue unless a further curveball hits the wire.

With the upcoming Dutch and French elections nothing can be ruled out.

All of a sudden, it is now Euro sellers seemingly with who are seeing greater opportunity than risk in waiting for improvements on the exchange rates.

As such, depending on your timeframe for a transfer, if you are purchasing Euros using Pounds, or vice-versa, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

GBP/EUR Where Next? (Daniel Johnson)

House of Lords – Brexit Bill Update

Th Brexit bill is now in the hands of the House of Lords. It is looking likely that there will be no significant amendments to the bill and it will shortly be passed up the ladder for royal approval. Lord Lamont yesterday urged peers not to appose the bill and undermine the UK’s negotiation position. We have seen GBP/EUR up to 1.19 this morning but is now falling back to the mid 1.18s. If you are buying Euros and only have a short term time scale I would consider performing a tranche of your requirement at current levels.

There are some key issues that should addressed, but I think there would be a public out cry from leave voters if there was any delay in the triggering of Brexit. Sterling would also so suffer.

Marine Le Pen gains in the polls

We have also seen Euro weakness as it seems there is an increasing chance of Marine Le Pen gaining power.  Froincois Fillon’s position as front runner to take the French Presidency is now a distant memory following accusations he has employed his wife in senior position and has paid a substantial sums for work that has not been done with tax payers money. If Le Pen gains power, her far-right party may well call for a referendum. Political uncertainty weaken the currency in question at the best of times, but the French election could really hurt the Euro.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you would like my help you can e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I will look at your individual situation and provide a strategy to suit your needs. If you already have a currency provider I will provide a comparison and I am very confident I will be able to show a significant saving. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

Sterling under pressure owing to lacklustre economic data (Tom Holian)

Pound to Euro rates have fallen towards the end of the week after seeing GBPEUR exchange rates recently hit 6 week highs to buy Euros with Sterling.

The fall began on Wednesday with the release of UK Average Earnings which showed a fall and the drop was exacerbated by Friday’s release of lower than expected UK Retail Sales data.

Retail Sales have now hit a 3 year low and this has supported Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s claims that the UK economy could be negatively affected by last year’s Brexit vote.

The first estimate of fourth quarter UK GDP is due out on Wednesday morning and this will be a key data release to influence what happens next to Sterling vs Euro rates.

GDP has been relatively positive in the previous two quarters but if recent Retail Sales are an indication that things slowed down during the final quarter of 2016 this could cause real problems for the Pound’s outlook against the single currency.

As yet it is still not clear as to when Article 50 will be triggered. Uncertainty is something that currency does not respond well to and until we get some clarity as to what the government’s real plans are to leave the European Union I think Sterling will remain under pressure.

Longer term however I think the outlook for Sterling is positive against the Euro as politically we could be in for numerous changes on the continent as Holland and France are due to go to the polls in the next couple of months.

As we saw in 2016 there appears to be a voice of antiestablishment and a search for a change to the current system and if we see these changes occur in Europe then I expect this to result in longer term Euro weakness.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Will Sterling rise against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

Which way will Sterling Euro rates go in the run up to the trigger Article 50 has been asked by my clients many times already and at the moment it is difficult to say.

What is clear is that we had huge movements between GBPEUR rates when the Brexit vote took place and some may assume that we could see similar drops in exchange rates.

However, the Brexit vote came as a big shock to financial markets which is why we saw such falls for Sterling against the Euro but with Article 50 it is clear that it will happen at some point in March so I think this time round the Pound is ready but I think ultimately rates will hinge on whether the UK will opt for a hard or a soft Brexit.

Economic data is rather limited today so with UK Retail Sales due tomorrow morning we could see a rather busy and volatile end to the week.

Generally speaking Retail Sales have been rather positive for the UK so any more of the same could result in GBPEUR rates going in an upwards direction.

Clearly the Pound to Euro rate is being dominated by what is happening politically and for the time being GBPEUR rates will be determined with regards Article 50 but longer term when we have the French elections taking place i think we could see Sterling make some gains as it is unclear as to which party and leader will win.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am confident that not only can I offer you better exchange rates than using your own bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer of currency.

If you would like to buy or sell Euros and would like further information or a free quote then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Alternatively visit the website directly www.currencies.co.uk