Category Archives: Other Currencies

Has GBP/EUR already hit its 2018 high, and what factors could drive its value as the year progresses?

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is currently trading around the 1.14 mark, after seeing a slight boost yesterday off the back of some positive data.

After beginning yesterday’s trading session closer to the 1.13 mark the Pound was boosted when the Office of National Statistics (ONS) announced that UK unemployment sits at the record low of 4.2%, and that wage growth in the UK has outpaced the rate of inflation for the first time in a year.

Despite this positive data the Pound to Euro rate is still a couple of cents from its highest levels this year when the pair almost hit 1.16. The positive sentiment surrounding the Pound has since dropped off after the Bank of England voted against a rate hike at last weeks monetary policy meeting.

In order for GBP/EUR to hit a new 2018 high I think there will need to be a breakthrough regarding the final Brexit deal, as such positive news would likely push the Pound higher. I also think that if talk of a rate hike returns later in the year we could see a stronger Pound, especially if the European Central Bank (ECB) continue to hold off of raising interest rates this year.

For those following the pair, its worth noting that Morgan Stanley are predicting short term weakness in the Pounds value, before a longer term recovery as they believe the Pound is oversold and that this will continue in the short term future.

There is a lack of data out of the UK for the rest of the week, but this mornings inflation data from the Eurozone may influence exchange rates.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP/EUR hits 1.15 (Daniel Johnson)

Draghi hints at prolonged QE

Today at the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting Mario Draghi the head of the ECB has indicated that Quantitative Easing (QE) could well continue into 2019 despite earlier hints that it would be ending this year. QE is pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth, current monthly increments are €30bn, if there was to be a cut you would expect the Euro to strengthen significantly. News that  QE could continue has caused GBP/EUR to move above 1.15.

In my opinion considering the current situation in the UK in regards to ongoing talks on the custom union situation it is a favourable time to buy Euros. 1.1599 has been the peak of the market in the last 11 months. We currently sit at 1.15, buying a cent away form an 11 month high is not a bad idea if you have to move short term.

If you have time to play with I am confident Sterling is c undervalued. Pre- Brexit levels were in the 1.40s, as further clarity is provided on Brexit the pound will rally, when, depends on the competence and attitude of those negotiating, throwing into the mix other UK political parties with their own agendas complicating matters.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

GBP/EUR – When shall I move? (Daniel Johnson)

Why will GBP/EUR not breach 1.15 and remain above 1.15?

Sterling has made significant improvements against the majority of major currencies of late. Breaking resistance points against both the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar, 1.80 and 1.40 respectively. Against the Euro however it only breached the key resistance point of 1.15 for a very short period.

1.15 has been the absolute peak of the market, this level only being breached on a few occasions and every time it quickly retracts. I have been saying for months that if you have to move short term trade if the market sits in the 1.14s.

There has been several catalyst for Sterling’s recent improvement. We have seen retail sales figures come in well above expectations. Previous readings came in at – 0.2% and the prediction was a rise to 0.4%. They landed at 0.8% for February.

We also saw average wage growth move much closer to parity with inflation, which is a true sign of a healthy economy. An interest rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) was already highly probable in May, but this may force the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) hand.

It was also announced that the UK would have access to single market during the Brexit transitional period, which is very good news indeed.

If ever there was a reasoning of late for GBP/EUR to break 1.15 and stay above 1.15 these were it. What gives me worries is that it didn’t.  I think it means we are going to have to have some pretty significant news to do so. Perhaps this could come in the form of news on the Irish border situation. which is at present a major point of contention in Brexit negotiations.

Personally, I am still of the opinion if you have to move short term do so in the 1.14s.

If you have a currency requirement I would b happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

Sterling Euro close to the best rate this year – What will tomorrow bring?

GBP/EUR exchange rates are now close to the best levels we have seen so far in 2017.

This is due to a number of positive economic and political data releases so far this week and we still have more to come too.

On Monday we had news that the EU and U.K had potentially come up with an agreement on a transition period which was seen as positive by the markets.

Yesterday we had inflation data out for the U.K and this morning we had news that unemployment figures had improved slightly, with most notably average earnings increasing to a level that is now back above inflation.

The reason this is key is that inflation has been above average earnings for a long time now, and that means that the price of goods and services is going up at a faster rate than peoples earnings, meaning the general consumer has less money in their pocket.

Tomorrow we see the start of the latest EU summit and brexit will no doubt be on the agenda so be wary of sharp Sterling movements at any point in the next 24 hours.

On top of this we have the latest Bank of England interest rate decision due out at midday. It would be a surprise to see a change in interest rates this time around, although after all of the positive news I wouldn’t totally rule it out, and the monetary policy statement shortly after should give us an indication on future plans, which would more than likely be confirming that they will be looking at a rate hike in May should nothing happen tomorrow.

If you have an exchange to carry out involving Pounds into Euros, or Euros into Pounds then I can help you achieve not only the best rates of exchange for this but I can help you with the timing of your transfer too.

Feel free  to contact me (Daniel Wright) by email for a free quote and discussion about your transaction on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to contact you personally.

 

 

Pound Euro rates hit 2 week high after Eurozone inflation data (Tom Holian)

The Pound has as of this afternoon hit the best rate to buy Euros all month following the release of lower than expected Eurozone inflation data published early this morning.

Inflation fell to 1.1% year on year compared to the expected 1.2% and this has caused the Euro to weaken against both the Pound and the US Dollar. Inflation has been a very hot topic for central banks recently and the European Central Bank in particular.

Earlier this month the ECB suggested that it would be looking to possibly bring their current QE Programme to an end towards the end of this year so this morning’s fall in inflation may mean that they will continue to pump money into the market and this is why the Euro has fallen to a 2 week low vs the Pound.

As we go into next week there are a number of key announcements that could affect Sterling Euro exchange rates. UK inflation is the first important release with the latest Consumer Price Index for February released on Tuesday morning.

Expectations are for 2.9% which is still above the target of 2% so another high release will put pressure on the Bank of England to increase interest rates in the near future.

Indeed, the latest odds are 75% in favour of an interest rate hike coming in May. Therefore, I think we could see the Pound rising early next week. This will be closely followed by UK unemployment data on Wednesday and the latest Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday.

We end next week with the EU summit and as this will cover the Brexit topic I think we could see a huge amount of volatility on GBPEUR exchange rates.

Therefore, if you’re considering making a currency transfer in the near future then feel free to contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates.

Email me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

 

 

GBP/EUR exchange rates still range bound – Data tomorrow to impact Euro exchange rates

So far this week we have still seen GBP/EUR exchange rates remain in the same range of 1.12 – 1.13 with no major threat of breaking out.

Tomorrow we have a number of releases that do have the potential to change that, all from the Eurozone.

European Central Bank president Mario Draghi is due to speak tomorrow morning at 08:00am and ECB member Praet is due to follow up with a speech at 08:45am. Any comments from either member that hint towards any fuiscal changes in the coming days, weeks or month could lead to volatility for Euro exchange rates.

Later in the morning we have industrial production figures, employment change and the ECB vice president Vitor Constancio and any one of these three have the potential to move the markets, industrial production figures are due to have come down a little which may weaken the Euro, employment change is also expected to have fallen too so we may see a little weakness for the Euro in the morning should these expectations be correct.

Towards the end of the trading week on Friday we have Consumer Price Index or CPI figures due out from the Eurozone and this might lead to a volatile finish to the week for Euro exchange rates in what looks on paper like a reasonably quiet week for economic data releases, key speeches and Brexit based news.

If you are generally busy a lot of the time and you do not have time to watch the market then a proactive and reliable broker should be able to do this for you, if you would like me to do exactly that then you are more than welcome to get in touch with me directly. Having worked in currency exchange for over a decade not only do I understand the importance of keeping clients up to date with market movements, but also how much difference timing a transaction correctly can make.

If you would like my assistance, feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch with you directly.

Will the Spring statement cause market volatility? (Daniel Johnson)

Will there be any surprises from Hammond?

Philip Hammond, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer is due to deliver the spring statement today. It is expected to be a no frills affair with no big surprises that could rock the markets. I tend to agree with this and I do not expected any breaking changes.

It will commence around 12.30pm and is due to last around 20 minutes. Hammond has stated  that no other major economy has two major fiscal set-piece events a year and “neither should we”.

He also added “If unexpected changes in the economy require it, then I will, of course, announce actions at the Spring Statement. But I won’t make significant changes twice a year just for the sake of it.”

I doubt this will have a significant impact on Sterling.

Single Market access for UK financial sector could be a point of contention

The key market mover will still be Brexit talks. The uncertainty surrounding single market access for the UK financial sector is probably one of the most significant point of the whole negotiation process. French Politician, Bruno Le Maire has stated that the UK will be forced to utilise a political mechanism know as equivalence. Equivalence gives countries outside the EU access to the single market for limited periods, when and whether they will have access is dictated by Brussels. Access can be revoked at any time.

May’s proposal for a mutual recognition situation with free single market access has been flatly denied. This does not bode well for the Pound.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor.

You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.

If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson

The French cause unrest in Brexit Talks (Daniel Johnson)

Concerns over UK Financial Sector could weigh on Sterling

The French are making things difficult for the UK in Brexit talks. French Economy Minister, Bruno Le Maire has stated there is very little chance of Britain securing a free trade deal for the financial services that would provide the level of access the UK seeks. Le Maire said the UK would have to use a legal mechanism known as equivalence. Equivalence allows countries outside the EU limited access to the single market, controlled by Brussels, access can be revoked at any time which would certainly not sit well with large financial firms. Indeed Goldman Sachs has already started moving UK employees to Frankfurt due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

May’s call for a mutual recognition system which would still give UK financial services access to the single market has already been rejected. Single Market access for financial services is one of the most important points of negotiation in the Brexit process and this could be a major stumbling block. The financial services sector is the UK’s biggest form of tax income.

France’s thinly veiled ploy to turn Paris into the new focal point of financial services is causing real trouble for the UK economy and the Pound as a result.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving.

I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

GBP/EUR has an up and down day – What does the week ahead hold?

Sterling started the day off on the front foot against most majors, getting up to almost 1.14 against the Euro only to drop away again over the course of the afternoon.

With a positive vibe around current Brexit talks and the chances of an interest rate hike in May for the U.K increasing, there are many reasons why investors would have an interest in Sterling once again.

Although Sterling has gained ground this year against most major currencies, it has struggled to make much ground up on the Euro, and comments from head of the European Central Bank earlier today suggested that Sterling will not make a huge impact on the Euro in the near term, not due to poor economic data from the Eurozone anyway.

Draghi mentioned that he felt growth in the area at present was stronger than he had anticipated, that he expects labour market conditions to continue to improve and that the relationship between inflation and growth had remained intact.

All in all this is fairly positive news for the Eurozone and this led to a little Euro strength, bringing GBP/EUR exchange rates back down below 1.1350 at the time of writing this post.

The most notable day of economic data this week will be on Friday, where we have Prime Minister Theresa May due to speak and address Britain on the current Brexit approach and situation. Investors and speculators will be hanging off of every work that is spoken throughout this for any hints on current plans or notable progression with talks.

This may lead to a volatile day for Sterling against the Euro so if you have an exchange to make in the near future be sure to keep a keen eye on the markets over the course of Friday.

If you are looking to buy any Euros with Sterling or should you need to bring a large sum of Euros back into Sterling then it is well worth getting in touch with me directly.

I can help you both in terms of timing your transfer, keeping you up to date with any spikes in the market and of course getting you the best rate when you come to book the deal out.

For a free, no obligation discussion on how I can help you with this important decision please feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch with you personally to see how I can help.

GBP/EUR up as the week closes – Sterling gets a small lift

GBP/EUR exchange rates ended the week on a high as news throughout the week suggested that talks both within Britain and outside of it appear to be going well and progressing reasonably.

Any positive news on Brexit can give Sterling a lift, even if nothing has actually happened just yet the mere speculation of good news does appear to help the Pound.

Unemployment figures earlier in the week had led to a little Sterling weakness but the Pound fought back as the week  neared an end. Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney remained fairly hawkish (or Positive) in his tone when discussing the U.K economy and the chance of interest rate hikes for the U.K in the coming months.

It is now expected that there may be an interest rate hike in the U.K as early as May, and should speculation of this continue then I would expect to see the Pound continue to rise in the coming weeks.

As mentioned above however Brexit news does still create the possibility of a slip should there be any negative release so this really is a market that you need to keep[ a very close eye on at all times.

If you are looking to buy any foreign currency with Sterling or should you need to bring a large sum of foreign currency back into Sterling then it is well worth getting in touch with me directly.

I can help you both in terms of timing your transfer, keeping you up to date with any spikes in the market and of course getting you the best rate when you come to book the deal out.

For a free, no obligation discussion on how I can help you with this important decision please feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch with you personally to see how I can help.

What to expect for GBPEUR exchange rates moving forward?

In recent weeks GBPEUR exchange rates have come under pressure once more due to the developments surrounding Brexit. Head EU negotiator Michel Barnier told the press last week that the transitional talks have broken down and if the UK and EU cannot come to an agreement then the likelihood is there wont be a transition.

No suprises the uncertainty sent the pound tumbling from the 1.14 highs and GBPEUR exchange rates are now floating in the 1.12s. Good news for any client selling euros to buy pounds.

Looking further ahead UK Prime Minister Thersa May is set to address the public on Saturday. This speech will be watched closely by any person involved with the pound and Conservative MPs. It was only last weekend Pro European Conservative MP Anna Soubry warned that MPs could rebel against the PM if she decides to take a hard Brexit approach.

Personally I expect the transitional talks to continue to put pressure on the pound and exchange rates could fall back towards 1.10 in the upcoming 4 weeks. However, I expect the deal will be reached between the UK and EU which will pave the way for trades talks and therefore GBPEUR will improve back to the highs we experience earlier this month. If my predictions materialise then there may be opportunity for both euro buyers and sellers.

If you reading this website for the first time as you need to convert GBPEUR, feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

If you are already using a brokerage and would like to a free quote email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands.

Common clients I help on a daily basis are Sole traders, MD or FD of a company, property buyers and sellers. If you are one of the three and are currently using the bank to transfer your currency you need to be made aware that you could be saving money!

 

Super Thursday results in a stronger Pound, where to now for the GBP/EUR rate? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound was boosted across the board of major currency pairs yesterday afternoon after the Bank of England delivered a far more bullish statement than many had expected.

Although interest rates were held at 0.5% there was talk of the stronger than expected global economy likely to result in a more aggressive approach from the BoE as soon as this year.

Financial markets are now pricing an interest rate hike into the Pounds value and it’s predicted that this could happen as soon as May.

There have also been forecasts of a higher GBP/EUR rate this year with TD Securities predicting that the rate will hit 1.1627 in the first quarter of this year. The rate went over 1.14 yesterday afternoon although there has been a bout of profit taking since as the pair have since dropped below this mark.

In such a sensitive political environment the rates can move quite dramatically so if you’re planning on making a currency exchange involving the pair, it’s worth making me aware of your plans so that if the rate spikes, I can keep you updated.

Those hoping for a stronger Pound should be aware that if there has less bullish comments from the BoE regarding monetary policy, the Pound is likely to lose a lot of the gains from yesterday very quickly.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

GBP/EUR – Where Next? (Daniel Johnson)

Brexit phase two could cause prolonged Sterling weakness

The main driver on GBP/EUR at present is Brexit. There is still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding how Brexit talks will progress. GBP/EUR hit 1.15 recently following the announcement a deal had been agreed in regards to Irish borders. The small window of opportunity for euro buyers soon closed however following stupid comments from David Davis. Davis, the secretary of state for exiting the European Union, he thought it would be a bright idea to state the border deal was not legally binding.  The pound fell in value as a result.

There was then the eleven tory MPs who managed to win a vote that any deal agreed by Theresa May at the recent European summit would have to be given the ok by parliament, substantially weakening May’s position and again sterling fell.

Phase two of negotiations is set to be far more difficult than phase one. The important issues such as immigration and trade are set to be addressed. Negotiations are expected to be problematic and lengthy. At present GBP/EUR seems range bound between 1.10-1.15

Potential Opportunity for Euro Buyers

Tomorrow Spanish regional elections will commence. There are several parties that are in favour of Catalonian independence. If it looks like Catalonia will leave Spain and indeed the EU the euro could suffer. Although Catalonia makes up a significant amount of Spanish GDP it is the threat that other regions could follow suit and leave the EU that is the threat to the Euro.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

Catalonian election could create Euro weakness (Daniel Johnson)

Close election in Spain could weaken the Euro

Regional elections in Spain commence on Thursday and they are a cause for worry for Brussels. The election is expected to be close between pro and anti independence parties. I would be surprised if any of the seven parties involved mange to secure a majority victory. Political uncertainty is a main factor in currency weakness so this  could create an opportunity for euro buyers.

Catalans have a tough decision. They must stick with a unstable separatist coalition whose leaders have been placed in prison or left the country, or take a chance on alternative parties that fall in line with a united Spain which would no doubt suit Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy’s wishes.

Recent polls suggest a lead for Catalonian secessionists who have used a the slim victory in the last regional parliament to declare independence  and cause a clash over sovereignty and popular that have caused worry far beyond Spain. There was less than half of the electorate involved in that vote.

Catalonia makes up a significant amount of Spanish GDP, but it is the threat that other regions follow suit if independence becomes a reality. If other regions, not just in Spain decide to campaign for independence this could create a serious threat to the Euro.

If you are buying euros with Sterling however be wary of hanging on for significant gains. I would suggest moving if the market hits above 1.14, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations is seemingly anchoring GBP/EUR below 1.15,it is something of a resistance point at present.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

 

Will the GBP/EUR rate break out of its current trading range anytime soon? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is now trading towards the bottom end of its current trading range, as the pair have dropped down to the 1.11’s.

For some time now the pair have struggled to breach the 1.14 mark, and with there being talk of Theresa May’s (UK Prime Minister) position coming under pressure along with some disappointing inflation data yesterday, the Pound has been under pressure which has pushed it to the lower levels of the current range which I believe is roughly 1.10 to 1.14.

Now the likelihood of further rate hikes in line with the Bank of England’s plans are looking less likely, we’ve seen the Pound drop off and I think that the rate could continue to soften should this continue.

Those selling Euros into Pounds are still in a great position when we consider that the current EUR/GBP rate is trading towards the top end of a 10-year range, which mid-market levels now close to 0.90. This may continue mostly owing to GBP weakness, but I do think the Catalonian independence issue could scupper the Euros strong position should it resurface once again.

If you wish to kept updated regarding any short term price movements between the pair, do feel free to register your interest with me. Yesterday the Euro hit a 1-month high against the Pound so those that wished to be kept updated were able to take advantage of our service.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Trade Balance and Production Data boosts the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

Pending Euro purchase? When should I move?

We have seen a spike on GBP/EUR this morning following a series of positive UK data releases, going against the grain. Trade Balance data was positive across the board and was followed by Manufacturing and Industrial production data. Both moving up by 0.4%. GBP/EUR has hit a day high today of 1.1348 up from 1.1263.

If I had a Sterling to Euro requirement I would be considering moving at current levels. Political uncertainty and a lack of clarity on Brexit talks could drag the pound back. 1.1340 does not seem like a bad time to move considering the best rates we have seen since June is 1.1450. With the recent resignations of Michael Fallon and Preti Patel it is difficult for investors to have faith in the Tory government who seem to be more concerned with their only political agendas and protection than sorting out the UK economy and focusing on the most important negotiations of the last fifty years.

I am of the opinion we will be anchored at current buoyancy levels between 1.10-1.1450 unless these situations are rectified \or indeed something unpredictable occurs to weaken the Euro. The situation in Catalonia is one of the few reasons I can base Euro weakness on. Be wary of hoping for  1.15 + if you have to move sort to medium term buying Euros.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving.  I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

Be wary of waiting for further gains for the pound (Daniel Johnson)

Interest Rate hike by the BOE a knee jerk reaction

The recent gains for the pound last week were based on the predicted rate hike by the Bank of England (BOE) and tapering form the European Central Bank (ECB) along with the uncertainty surrounding the situation in Catalonia. The UK economy is shocking state considering where we could be had we not voted to leave the EU. Inflation is now at 3% and average wage growth is at 2.1%, In order to have a stable economy these figures need to be moving at a similar pace, they are not. Unemployment is being lauded as the best levels since the 70’s, but the data has only recently incorporated zero hour contracts. The rate hike from the BOE was a knee jerk reaction to the inflation problem and it is a coin flip as to whether it will have any impact.

There was very little justification for the hike and I am of the opinion we could be in for further losses for the pound against the Euro. Buoyancy levels have been between 1.08-1.15 since June,the last time we hit 1.15 was June. The highest we have seen the market in several months is 1.1450 and if you have a Euro requirement short to medium term it could be wise to move if the market moves close to 1.14 again.

In order for a significant rise Sterling value we need a stable government and clarity over Brexit, both of which I can’t see happening for the foreseeable future.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

All eyes on Inflation figures this morning (Joseph Wright)

This morning could be important for Sterling exchange rates, not just this morning but moving forward as analysts are expecting to see UK inflation levels hit a 5-year high.

The weakening of the Pound since the Brexit vote has pushed up the rate of inflation in the UK, and for a while now the inflation level has been well above the Bank of England’s 2% target. Many analysts in the city are expecting to see the rate hit 3% for September, and if this happens there is a high chance that the Bank of England may look to hike interest rates for the first time in over 10 years.

A 3% inflation level would be a 5-year high and the governor of the Bank of England has hinted at hiking rates as soon as next month.

A high reading this morning would likely result in Sterling strength as the markets would expect to see a rate hike from the BoE, and at the same time if the inflation level is lower than expectations, I think there’s a chance the Pound would fall.

Mark Carney will also be speaking later this morning as he testifies to MP’s on the Treasury this morning. It will be interesting to see whether he discusses inflation and potential rate hikes and if he does it will be interesting to see how the Pound reacts.

Aside from today’s busy morning this Thursday could also be busy as Retail Sales data will be released which could impact Sterling depending on how the figures perform.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP/EUR Back Under 1.09 (Ben Fletcher)

This afternoon the GBP/EUR rate had one of its most volatile days in months. The European Central Bank provided their latest interest rate decision which as expected saw the rate remain at 0%. However in the statement afterwards President Mario Draghi’s speech caused major volatility, significantly helping the Euro find support against Sterling and the US Dollar. Draghi did stay fairly close to the expected narrative saying that there could changes to economic policy, however they’re there just yet. One consideration for the future that Draghi raised was continuous Euro strength culd we have consequences in the short term

The cost of exports will increase with the currency and may encourage importers from other regions to look elsewhere for goods. This will eventually have an effect on the Eurozone economy and potentially could cause inflation to slow down. Whilst there isn’t expected to be a interest rate hike in the EU for a considerable time, a decrease in inflation would be incredibly detrimental especially considering the amount of stimulus that has gone into forcing a rise.

The Euro strength may continue and unless Sterling gains some support in positive Brexit talks the market isn’t likely to move much in my opinion. However if the Euro weakens and the Brexit talks do stat to slowly find some resolve then we may not be far to breaking back through the 1.10 level.

If you do have a upcoming currency requirement and would like to discuss what might be the best option, please send me an email to Ben at brf@currencies.co.uk. The currency markets are always moving and timing a transfer can help make sure you achieve the most for your funds. Working at a brokerage I am able to help you achieve the best rates of exchange and set alerts to make sure you capitalise on any movements on your favour.

Services PMI causes Sterling spike against the Euro (Daniel Johnson)

Eurozone PMI data arrives below expectations

Services Purchase Mangers Index (PMI) was released yesterday in the UK and the Eurozone. Services PMI is a measure of health in the sector and can move markets. The UK saw a fall of 0.3% and saw a slight rise in German data by 0.1%. Italian PMI came in 0.4% down and French PMI was also down by 0.6%. This caused GBP/EUR to move above 1.09, the best levels for Euro buyers for over two weeks.

I am of the opinion this could be a small window of opportunity. Citibank, J.P Morgan, Morgan Stanley and HSBC are all predicting parity on GBP/EUR by the end of the year. Sterling is going to find it particularly hard to make any significant gains due to political uncertainty and a lack of clarity on Brexit.

Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question. With a growing number of conservatives pushing forward a vote of no confidence in Theresa May the pound stays anchored below 1.10. Until we have a stable government the pound stands little chance of a sustained rally.

There needs to be clarity on the UK’s stance on Brexit. The white paper documents that are being released are not addressing the main points on immigration and trade. In the currency market no news is worse than bad news. These points need to be addressed if investors are to regain confidence in the UK economy.

Could we see QE tapering from the ECB?

With sustained growth geographically and in the majority of business sectors in the Eurozone there has been talk of tapering Quantitative Easing (QE) from the European Central Bank (ECB). QE is pumping money into an economy to stimulate growth. The ECB are currently injecting €60bn a month, if this is reduced to €40bn we could see GBP/EUR fall below 1.05. This may not be a wise move as if the Euro becomes too strong it could hinder exports and damage the Eurozone economy.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.