Category Archives: GBP Forecast

Queens speech vote to influence GBPEUR exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

As Theresa May failed to win the General Election by a majority the Conservative Prime Minister has been in negotiations with the Democratic  Unionist Party (DUP) and a minority Government has been formed. Members of Parliament will have the final vote on the minority Government later this afternoon.

For Jeremy Corbyn to win and effectively vote down the queens speech members of the conservative party will have to vote against Theresa May and I just cant see this happening. Therefore I expect the minority government to be officially formed by the end of the week which could lead to further sterling strength against the Euro and exchange rates to drift towards the mid teen territory.

Looking further ahead Theresa May’s position as Prime Minister will continue to be scrutinised and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the PM resign in the upcoming 6 months. This view is supported by American Financial Service City Group as they informed all of their clients that they expect Theresa May will resign in the upcoming months due to a Conservative rebellion. If she did resign the new Prime Minister could call another General Election which would weigh down on the pound further.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR exchange rates feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you and the process of using the company I work for drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

A stable government is needed for a Pound rally (Daniel Johnson)

Theresa May’s position has now been brought into question following her call for a snap election and the aftermath. Her decision to call an election when the opposition seemed so weak back fired when the conservatives failed to win a majority victory. Attacking tory core voters was deemed a poor move by senior conservative members. The PM’s stance on Brexit is causing much unrest, with the DUP now in place alongside the conservatives it has been rumored we could be moving towards a softer Brexit. If her stance changes she could be ousted from her position, This could well cause further political uncertainty and could cause the pound to weaken further as investors lose confidence.

For Sterling to rally it is vital a stable government is in place.

Keep a close eye on Brexit negotiations as they unfold this will be key to GBP/EUR buoyancy levels moving forward. The magnitude of these talks should not be underestimated, they are the most important talks for Britain in the last 50 years. Many have the opinion these negotiations could take far longer than the two year target. I think this could well be the case when you take into account the quickest negotiation for the US and another country took four years.

It is important to take into account if that if Brussels choose to play hard ball it could be detrimental to all those involved. Britain is one of the largest economies in Europe, the cost to other countries would be substantial if trade laws become problematic. Germany would be particularly effected when you look at the amount exports to the UK. The car industry would definitely be an area hit.This could cause negotiations to go through more quickly than anticipated, although the two year target still seems unrealistic.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a current provider I will be happy to perform a comparison and I am confident I can demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a few minutes and could potentially save you thousands. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

Very important week for GBPEUR exchanges! Both Draghi and Carney to speak!

Clients looking to buy Euros with pounds have been treading on pretty precarious ground as the market continues to fret about the political make up of the UK in the coming months and years. Theresa May’s deal with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) did little to spark interest in the pound and with the all important commons vote on the Queen’s speech this week sterling should remain at the whim of political developments. I expect the pound could move in either direction with the Euro as much as 2  cents in the coming week depending on a series of important data and events that are taking place.

If you need to move any currency around then making plans in advance is sensible to avoid being caught out like many have in recent weeks as markets take an unexpected turn! We offer a proactive service to help monitor and track exchange rates with a view helping secure the very best levels. If you have a transfer to make and wish for us some assistance please do contact me to find out more.

There is a light belief the Bank of England are making plans to raise interest rates however with the Governor Mark Carney against the idea we could have quite a battle on for that to become reality. We will really need to see some big shifts in the economic data but should we start to see the economic data improving the case for a rate hike will increase. For the Euro the week is fairly light on data but we do have Mario Draghi speaking who with his comments could easily move the Euro rates.

A higher interest rate makes a currency stronger as it attracts investment into that currency. The mere mention of a hike or speculation of one can do lots to a currency and the back and forth nature of commentary over raising UK interest rates lately has seen sterling to Euro rates see-sawing with the sentiment. Both Carney and Draghi’s comments have the potential to move exchange rates and clients looking to buy or sell large volumes of pounds and euros for say an overseas property purchase or business should be prepared.

This week is another potential choppy one with a host of speakers who will be commenting on the potential for interest rates with Mark Carney due to speak today and tomorrow. Markets will be eagerly awaiting any news on how the Governor is viewing events with his Financial Stability report due today. If you have a transfer buying or selling pounds for Euros I would not be surprised to see movements of 1 – 2 cents as we learn principally of developments in UK politics and economics.

If you have a transaction to consider and wish to get any information on the market or trends then please do speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk to get the latest insight and assistance with the timing and planning of your exchanges.

 

Tories and the DUP form an alliance and the impact on Sterling Euro rates (Tom Holian)

After much deliberating the Tories and the Democratic Unionist Party have finally formed an alliance which allows the Tories to operate as a majority government.

This has done little to affect GBPEUR exchange rates and it could be argued that it was priced in. With only days to go before the Queen’s Speech is voted on it will now be approved in the House of Commons unless we see a big surprise.

This could help the Pound make some small gains but the real issue surrounding the UK economy is that of Brexit and we are just one week in to the discussions so far. Theresa May has set out her proposal for EU citizens living in the UK post-Brexit and has announced plans to put their ‘anxiety at rest.’

Theresa May also wants to provide assurances to those not only living in the UK but wants to aim for reciprocal rights for those living in Europe.

The good news is that if you’re in the process of looking at selling Euros to buy Pounds the uncertainty that is being caused by the Brexit talks is causing the Pound vs Euro rate to fall to its lowest level seen since November.

Therefore, if you’re selling Euros it may be worth taking advantage of this uncertain period for the UK economy. Call me directly for a free quote or to compare rates on 01494-787478.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident of not only being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your trade.

If you would like further information or a free quote when either buying or selling Euros then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Brexit talks and the impact on Pound Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

We are now a year on since the Brexit vote when the British public voted to leave the European Union and during this time we have seen huge losses for the Pound against the Euro.

As yet we are no clearer as to whether the UK will opt for a soft or a hard Brexit. Clearly in the interests of the UK and the Pound a soft Brexit would be preferred but this could take a very long time from coming to fruition.

Yesterday, Theresa May was in Brussels speaking about the subject of Brexit and she has suggested that the UK will maintain the rights of EU nationals living in the UK of which there are over 3 million.

The issue though is that the EU has not yet discussed a reciprocal arrangement and that is why the Pound has had a difficult end to the week.

As yet the Tories have still yet to from an alliance with the DUP which is necessary in order to form a majority government.

I think we are only a few days from this happening and when it does take place I expect the Pound to rise against the Euro but I think the gains will be short lived so if you need to buy Euros keep a close eye on the political situation in the UK.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident of being able to offer you better rates when buying currency as well as helping you with various contract types.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling rises as negotiations begin, but will the Pound to Euro rate continue to climb as they continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has edged up today against the Euro as well as against other major currency pairs, making the buying of oversea’s currencies a cheaper proposition than yesterday.

The reason behind the positive movements for the Pound can be put down to the latest updates regarding the Brexit process. It appears that the early stages of the Brexit negotiations are going quite well, which has boosted sentiment surrounding the UK economy moving forward and therefore the Pounds value.

I think that moving forward if the negotiations continue to go relatively smoothly, we can expect to see the Pound begin its recovery from its current levels, especially when when consider how the Pound is trading around historical lows against many currency pairs at the moment.

Against the Euro Sterling has lost around 5 cents over the past month or so, so there’s certainty scope for the currency to gain if things go to plan.

Next week Friday is likely to be once of the busiest days for GBPEUR as GDP data for the UK will be released around 9.30am. The expectations are for 2% annual growth so we’ll see how the currency performs in the wake of the news.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP/EUR Forecast – The Referendum Result a Year On (Matthew Vassallo)

A year ago today, the UK public voted to leave the European Union.

The result of this historic vote has been dissected and discussed ever since but are we any clearer as to what it really means to be ‘OUT’ of the EU?

What we do know is that since that day Sterling has struggled to gain sustained market support, with investors questioning how the UK economy will fare over the coming years.

This uncertainty has sapped investor confidence in the UK economy and the Pound has suffered as a result. GBP/EUR have not broken through 1.20 in the past 12 months, with the current levels of around 1.14 becoming a far fairer reflection of the current value on the pair.

Whilst the current cloud of uncertainty means that long-term predictions are becoming almost futile but what I have been advocating to my clients is that they look to protect their positions wherever possible and look for short-term market spikes.

Investors remain extremely sceptical regarding the upcoming Brexit negotiations, with the negative focus seemingly shifting further towards the UK’s side and away from the EU.

Let’s not forget that the EU are losing an integral member of the single member state, with the ramifications of this as yet, remaining unclear.

We also need to consider the current political vacuum, created by the shock general election results. The Pound is struggling against a divided government and a divided country and until we have a clear economic plan in place to move the UK economy forward, I feel that the Pound will continue in its struggle to make any major inroads.

Whilst this is likely to handicap any major advances for Sterling, EU sellers would be wise to take advantage of the current window of opportunity and remove any on-going risk from this most unstable of markets.

Now is the time to contact a personal currency broker and here I can help guide you through this turbulent market. I assist my clients with the timing of their currency transfers, to ensure that any market value is maximised.

We can offer award winning exchange rates & service, which surpass any of our competitors.

Please feel free to contact me if you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our rates to those of your current provider.

I am available on 0044 1494 725 353 between 08.30-18.00 and just ask one for the team for Matthew. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Gains Recced as Afternoon Unfolds (Ben Fletcher)

The GBP/EUR rate begun to recced after reaching a high of 1.14. The boost today came after comments from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Andy Haldane who suggested he will vote for a rate hike later in the year. Haldane is the Bank of England Chief Economist and is considered a key influencer for the group. His comments come a day after Governor Mark Carney announced he doesn’t see a need to start raising rates interest rates just yet.

What the movement today shows is that even a small statement can have major market effects. There was a whole cent difference between the high and the low which on a £100,000 could make you an extra €1000. When the currency markets are this volatile a brokerage can help to protect your interest in the market alerting you to the latest movements.

Quiet end to the week for UK Data

There are no major data releases for the UK for the rest of the week, however do not think that will mean a quiet market. Another Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Kristin Forbes will speak on Friday afternoon which could once again create volatility. Forbes will now be replaced having completed her term on the committee by Silvana Tenreyro. Forbes was considered a hawkish member of the committee and Tenreyro is thought to have more controlled opinions on economic policy.

The chances of an interest hike in the UK within the next few months is unlikely in my opinion. However if inflation continues to rise at the rate it has through the start of 2017 the decision may become forced.

Working for an established brokerage I am able to help you complete any transfers, by offering the best exchange rates. More importantly by fully discussing your requirements and how upcoming events could have an effect on your plans, it could protect you from any market movements. If you do have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me at brf@currencies.co.uk

Queen’s Speech set to cause swings on GBP/EUR (Daniel Johnson)

Could a firm Government cause a Pound rally

Today at 11.30am we will see the state opening of parliament and the Queen’s speech. This had been delayed as the conservatives and the DUP attempt to put a coalition deal together. There has been rumors the negotiations have been problematic with the DUP stating conservative negotiators have been poor. Let us hope this is not a sign of things  to come considering Brexit negotiations have just begun.

Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question and the current situation is a clear demonstration of what a country without a government does to the value of the currency in question. There is also in house troubles within the Tory party with senior conservative members giving eight days for Theresa May to prove her credential as PM or risk a leadership challenge. If her stance is changed on hard Brexit we could well see this occur. This could happen as the DUP wish to have a soft border between Northern Ireland and Southern Ireland, this would go against May’s plans for a hard borders which would be a feature in a hard Brexit. We are currently in political limbo and many are expecting Sterling to rise in value once we have a government in place. Although this is definitely a probable outcome I am of the opinion a conservative-DUP government is already factored into current exchange rates. The big market mover will be which course of action the government will take in regards to a hard or soft Brexit.

If you have a currency requirement and would like the assistance of a skilled broker feel free to get in touch. If you let me the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free, individual trading strategy. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. (Daniel Johnson)

How do I get the best GBPEUR rates for my international transfer?

The pound to Euro rate will this week generally remain at the mercy of the latest news on Brexit negotiations. So far we have heard that the Brexit Bill and the discussion of rights of EU nationals were top of the list to settle. Talks have opened amicably so far and there has been no major movement on the rates just yet. These pieces of news will be come out from time to time and should be carefully monitored for clients looking to transfer large volumes of pounds or Euros internationally looking for the best rates of exchange or optimum times to trade. For example clients looking to buy or sell overseas property or businesses making payments to foreign suppliers.

With these talks scheduled to carry on over various sessions there is plenty of potential for something unexpected to come out of the talks which could catch the headlines and trigger some volatility on GBPEUR exchange rates. The pound is looking like it could easily rise higher if there is a belief a softer Brexit will be achieved, if it looks like talks a running into difficulty we could easily see the pound drop lower.

If you have a currency exchange to make then making plans in advance is always a smart way to try and avoid the volatility on the markets. We can help with the timing, planning and execution of any currency deals you will need in the future. The general impression for the pound is that we will see some unexpected swings as we learn of firmer details of the Brexit talks but these could be sudden and unexpected.

We offer a proactive service to keep our clients up to date with the market and to help try and target a better deal. Exchange rates change very quickly creating spikes which for a a few minutes may present savings of hundreds or thousands of pounds depending on how you need to do or how big the movement is.

If you wish to learn more about the market and all of your options then please do not hesitate to contact me Jonathan directly to discuss how we can offer the kind of support that really does help lead you to a position to get the best rates. Please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

Sterling rises after Bank of England hints at a rate hike (Joseph Wright)

The Pound appears to have consolidated above 1.14 against the Euro, making the buying Euro rate cheaper for those holding Sterling.

There are current 8 voting members of the BoE and yesterday almost half of them voted in favour of hiking rates, which caused the Pound to jump by over half a cent as soon as the news broke around lunchtime.

The reason behind the Bank of England’s voting members that would like to see a hike is most likely the rising rate of inflation in the UK, which is eating into consumers spending power as wage growth is beginning to stall within the UK.

Raising the interest rate would act to lessen the blow and it’s also a positive for the Pound so I do think we can expect to see the Pound climb if rates are going to rise for the first time in a decade.

Later this morning the Bank of England’s Quarterly Bulletin will be released which could send the markets either way depending on what’s said. If you would like to be kept updated with data releases that can impact your upcoming currency exchange plans do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBPEUR rises due to Bank of England (Dayle Littlejohn)

Earlier in the week UK inflation numbers rose to 2.9%, 0.9% above the Bank of England’s target which gave support for the pound and all eyes turned to today’s Bank of England’s interest rate decision.

Each month members of the Bank of England (8 to be precise), vote to decide whether to hike, keep on hold or cut. This afternoon 3 members voted in favour of raising interest rates which surprised the market and GBPEUR exchange rates increased over a cent and therefore made back some of the losses from the shock UK general election decision. Looking further ahead if inflation levels continue to rise over the next 2 quarters I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bank of England act.

Its a quiet day for economic data that will have a major impact on GBPEUR exchange rates tomorrow. It has been reported that Brexit negotiations will begin Monday morning which surprises me as Theresa May has not formed a government as of yet. Could this happen tomorrow? Once the government is formed I believe this will provide further strength for the pound and GBPEUR exchange rates will start to rise towards 1.15.

The currency company I work for has won numerous awards for exchange rates therefore it enables me to trade GBPEUR / EURGBP at rates better than other UK brokerages and high street banks.

I would recommend emailing me with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Will the pound to Euro rate continue to rise?

The pound to Euro rate will continue its volatility in the coming weeks as we get closer to understanding just what type of Government the UK will have in the future. Overall expectations for the future remain unclear as we try to understand what Brexit means and what type of  government the UK will have in the future. It appears a ‘hard Brexit’ is now less likely but with 80% of voters having voted for parties who remain committed to Brexit just what will the future entail? With such uncertainty hanging over the market and the pound the GBPEUR rate does seem very much poised to languish at these lower levels, a move further down cannot be ruled out.

Today is the UK Bank of England decision which could well see some volatility on exchange rates, the general belief we would see UK interest rates rising has been fading and concerns are now rising about the problems in the UK economy form Brexit, the outcome from all of this for the pound is no longer a question. The reality is that the economic conditions in the UK are not meeting expectation and we could be well in line for further falls in the value of the pound.

If you have a transfer to make in the future the outlook on the exchange rate is not looking great for Euro buyers. Euro sellers are now looking at much improved conditions and the market could easily favour further improvements. If you have a transfer to make selling Euros for pounds then the current market should not be taken too much for granted.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. I can  provide some insight and information regarding your situation and am very confident I can offer a rate which will save you money.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Sterling Under Pressure Ahead of BoE Interest Rate Decision (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling remains under pressure, despite a slight upturn following yesterday’s positive inflation data.

GBP/EUR rates hit a high of 1.1407, before retracting following some positive Eurozone employment data. The UK also had its official Unemployment rate released, with the figure of 4.6% coming out as expected.

The markets focus will now turn to tomorrow’s key data releases. UK Retail Sales and the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision & subsequent minutes will take centre stage. Those clients holding Sterling will hoping for a marked improvement on the UK’s economic outlook, with last week’s general election results still handicapping any major advances for the Pound.

However, EUR sellers should also proceed with caution. Any deal between UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s led Conservative party and the unknown and somewhat controversial DUP party could bring with it some political stability and this could help alleviate some of the pressure on Sterling.

Now could be the perfect opportunity to sell any short-term EUR positions and remove any uncertain ty from this extremely fragile and unpredictable market.

The current market is proving increasingly difficult to dissect and as such I am of the opinion that clients both buying and selling GBP/EUR should be looking for short-term opportunities.

On-going concerns regarding our Brexit negotiations are also weighing heavily on investors’ minds and with confidence in are fragmented government hitting new lows over the past few days, I would not be prepared to gamble on which direction GBP/EUR rates may take next.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Buying Euro rates see first signs of life since election result (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR has risen half a cent at the time of writing this article due to some very positive economic data in the UK cutting through some of the election noise.

Euro buyers seem to have found some support now that Theresa May has had positive meetings yesterday with her own conservative party, quelling rumours of a potential leadership challenge and painting the picture of a Government on the mend.

This was compounded today with positive murmurings coming from talks between Theresa May and the DUP in the first official steps to forming their informal partnership whilst the next government sits to perform its duties.

The manifesto will still need to be debated in Parliament, and, as such, is not out of the woods yet, and May needs to get a consensus on which features of the manifesto should be revised to meet the surge for opposition support.

For now however, the Pound seems set for improvements. Even the economic sphere is giving Sterling a helping hand.

Today inflation data for the UK economy showed thriving spending activity, pushing price rise rates up close to 3% for the year at 2.9%. Given that 60% of the UK economy is made up from domestic consumerism this is important, but there are also indirect benefits.

On Thursday the UK has its next interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. Given that a high interest rate (and this is high, the Bank of England tends to have a target rate of just 2%) is normally a prompt to raise rates and control spending activity, the UK may see policy lean more towards raising rates in the near term.

Such a move will certainly benefit the Pound’s value.

I am well positioned to assist anyone with a buying or selling Euro currency requirement to time their transfer and stay informed in this fluid marketplace. You can contact me directly on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer and your options.

One final point is that I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for a future requirement you have planned using only a small deposit, eliminating any risk from further currency exchange movements.

Political Uncertainty weakens the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

Conservative failure to win a majority weakens Sterling

The PM  faces more negotiations with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to keep her position as prime minister after losing parliament majority just days before EU exit  negotiations are set to take place. It may have been the case that Theresa May would have been better off keeping her mouth shut rather than try and improve her popularity. It was not a clever move attacking her key voters. She said she would make the elderly pay for their own care homes or home care if they have assets to the value of £100k or above.  This no doubt caused a significant swing in votes.

May’s Downing street office announced  she had spoken  with the DUP to discuss completeing a deal this week. Political uncertainty causes the currency in question to weaken and this is definitely the case in this scenario.

May stated “ We will welcome any such deal being agreed , as it will provide the stability and certainty the whole country requires as we embark on Brexit and beyond. As and when details are finalised both parties will put them forward.”

This could prove to be an opportunity for euro buyers. The UK needs to escape of this political limbo in order for the pound to strengthen. It would be wise to keep your eyes glued to developments in order to maximise your return.

Brussels seems to be prepared to make it tough at the beginning of exit talks. They have requested an exit payment before negotiations can commence. The fee named is on excess of €60bn. This does not bode well for Sterling.

If you have a currency transfer to perform  then I will be happy to speak to you directly as I will be willing to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the best possible rate when you do come to trade. A small improvement in a rate can make a significant difference so for the sake of taking a few minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can contact me (Daniel Johnson) on dcj@currencies.co.uk and I will to get back to you as quickly as possible. Thank you for reading.

 

Best rate to sell Euros to buy Pounds since November 2016 (Tom Holian)

The Pound has now dropped to its lowest level to buy Euros since November last year as the political landscape remains uncertain.

Although the Tories managed to succeed as the largest party they did not win enough votes to form a majority government and at the moment talks are continuing between the Conservatives and the DUP in an attempt to conclude the election result.

The Queen’s Speech has been delayed for a few days until things are sorted out with the initial date of June 19th having now been postponed. The speech is one written by the government and outlines its plans for how it will run parliament during its term.

All this news does not bode well for Sterling Euro exchange rates as uncertainty will often cause problems for the currency involved. Previously when the Tories were forced to form a coalition with the Lib Dems back in 2010 it took almost 3 weeks after the election result to have the Queen’s Speech.

I personally think we’ll see further problems ahead for the Pound against the single currency whilst all this uncertainty continues.

The election result may even delay the Brexit talks which were also due to start next week. Until we have some form of agreement then we will be stuck in limbo so I cannot see the Pound making gains vs the Euro in the short term until things settle down.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers for almost 15 years I am confident of being able to offer you better exchange rates than using your own bank when buying or selling Euros as well as offering you a number of different contract options typically unavailable from your high street bank.

For further information or for a free quote when exchanging currency then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

General Election causes Pound to fall against the Euro (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs the Euro has crashed as the election result caused a big shock for the foreign exchange markets. The fall happened immediately after the release of the first exit polls on Thursday night which showed that a hung parliament would be likely with the Tories not being able to form a majority government.

Even when I saw the release of the initial poll owing to what happened during 2016 when the polls were completely wrong in predicting both the Brexit vote as well as the Trump victory I didn’t have too much faith in them being correct.

However, on this occasion the results were almost spot on and we saw the Pound drop into the 1.12 region at one point on Friday morning.

The Tories failed to achieve a majority government and this led to a fall in value of Sterling vs the Euro and at the time of writing the Tories are looking to sort out an agreement with the DUP.

The Pound managed to put a stop to its losses by midday on Friday and with calls for Theresa May to resign this could have caused further uncertainty for Sterling so as she has stayed this helped the Pound to resist falling further vs the single currency.

The next stumbling block for the Pound will come in just over a week’s time with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel suggesting that there is now no reason to delay the Brexit talks.

As we now know who will be leading the country the talks are due to start on June 19th and as we have already seen in the last few months the European leaders are likely to make the talks as difficult as possible in order to discourage other countries from doing the same.

Therefore, I think the Pound could be under further pressure this month vs all major currencies including the Euro.

If you’re in the process of buying a house in Europe it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.

To find out more or for a free quote when buying or selling Euros compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Critical 36 hours for GBPEUR exchange rates!

GBPEUR has opened this morning flirting around the 1.15 mark as markets digest events for a crucial couple of days for this pairing. The headline event is of course the UK election which takes place today, results due early tomorrow morning. Today however we have the latest ECB (European Central Bank) meeting which will be closely followed for information relating to any changes in monetary policy from the ECB. All in all I expect the predictions will be correct and GBPEUR will rise as Theresa May secures a much larger majority although I don’t see a landslide.

GBPEUR has slipped down to almost 1.13 in the last week as markets begin to price in the possibility of a Labour win or indeed a hung parliament. With the election taking place at such a crucial time with Brexit running in the background markets are being careful to not be caught out. Markets were surprised by the Trump and Brexit votes of last year which saw big swings on exchange rates, this time investors are being very careful about placing too high an expectation on any particular outcome.

Overall nothing can be taken too much for granted as historically the Conservative vote has been largely underestimated in the polls, this was true following the 2010 and 2015 election so may well see Theresa May winning more the the polls indicate. I expect GBPEUR would fall down to say 1.12 on a hung parliament, 1.10 on a Corbyn victory and 1.16-1.17 on a majority of 50-80. Anything above 80 would probably lead to rates approaching the very high teens, should May match Thatcher’s landslide of 144 then I think 1.20 could be on the cards.

If you have a transfer to make making some plans around these important events is I believe crucial to getting the best deal and not missing out. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

UK Braces Itself for Election Day – How will GBP/EUR Rates React to the Result? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have remained marooned under 1.15 during Wednesday’s trading, ahead of tomorrow’s UK general election.

With recent polls suggesting the Corbyn led Labour party have gained some momentum, the key question now is what is the likely result and how with the markets react to the final outcome?

Whilst the result seems to be more uncertain over recent days, the Pound did find some support earlier this week. It gained over a cent against the EUR following a tough run over the past week.

The markets have been gearing themselves up towards tomorrow’s key vote and it has been the election and the subsequent outcome, which has been shaping GBP/EUR exchange rates over recent weeks.

Investors had clearly factored in a Conservative majority victory but since reports of a 20-point lead last month, each subsequent poll has indicated a decreasing advantage. This in turn has caused investors to panic, with the result being a sell-off of large Sterling positions and a downturn in the Pound’s value.

I’m extremely wary about pre-election polls, especially after last year’s UK referendum and US election results. However, with strong indications that a hung parliament is now a very real possibility, are you prepared to gamble on the result if you have a short-term Sterling currency exchange to mate?

Personally, I feel that the Pound is fighting an on-going uphill battle and any short-term improvements should be protected wherever feasible. Even a strong Conservative victory will only boost the Pound back to the levels we saw a couple of weeks ago, which have already proved unsustainable over recent months.

Looking beyond Thursdays vote and the UK economy still has many issues to content with. The Brexit negotiations have not even started and seemed to have hit a wall, whilst UK growth forecasts for next year and beyond have shrunk.

I still feel based on current market conditions that the downside risk outweighs the current upside gains and for this reason I would be removing as much risk as possible from the current market.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.