Category Archives: GBP Forecast

Will GBPEUR rise or fall on the French elections?

The general impression is that  GBPEUR will rise since the French election offers lots of potential for Euro weakness in the coming months. The overall impression on financial markets is that a Le Pen or Melenchon victory would severely weaken the Euro, with a real chance at least one of these candidates will make it through to the second round after Sunday’s first round vote the single currency could be in for a tough couple of weeks. What happens is very much open to interpretation, nothing should be taken for granted in such uncertain times, however.

The overriding expectation is that the French election will ultimately be won by the more centrist ‘reformer’ Macron. Performing well in the polls the market is expecting he will beat Le Pen in the run-off on the 7th May. If you have a Euro buying requirement the rates on Monday morning could be much improved as the market debates the likelihood of a Le Pen victory.

The pound has been much stronger on the back of the General Election announcement earlier this week for the UK. Most reports have the pound much stronger in the next few weeks as Theresa May cements her position and is able to drive through more reform. A flipside view is that with her relying less on the elements in the Tory party who seek a harder Brexit, she will be forced to create more of a softer Brexit. This is one of the reasons for the pound rising but such elements and expectations can quickly change.

If you are buying or selling the pound and euro in the coming days and weeks the importance of the French election and the continued Brexit fallout shouldn’t be underestimated. With only a few days between the two rounds of the French election Euro buyers might find they are presented with a fresh unique opportunity to buy Euros, the best in 2017 so far.

If you would like some assistance with the timing and planning of any currency transfers please contact the author Jonathan Watson directly by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

1.20 Still a Key Resistance Level for GBP/EUR Exchange Rates (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has met resistance under 1.20 against the EUR and is struggling to break through this key level for the pair.

Despite this week’s positive move, I am not convinced that the recent trend will allow the Pound to sustainably move above this threshold.

Sterling has gained over two cents following UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to call a snap general election in June. This positive move went against the grain, as historically any political U-turns usually bring with it a level of uncertainty and the currency in question is put under pressure. As regular readers will know any economic & political uncertainty is a currencies biggest downfall and for this reason I would be extremely tempted to take advantage of Sterling’s gains over the past 48 hours.

There are still many unanswered questions and despite many assuming the result of the election is a forgone conclusion, last year’s political outcomes in terms of the Brexit result and President Trump’s victory, should head a warning to us all that the expected outcome does not always come to fruition.

There is no doubt Sterling has gained a foothold and EUR sellers may well have missed the opportune time to sell their positions but the current levels remain attractive, certainly when you consider the history on the pair.

The main talking point over the next few of weeks is likely to centre around the French elections and with the far right Marine Le Penn once again gaining support, having seemingly been out of the race, investors are likely to be extremely wary about what the outcome could be should she get into power. With so much economic and political uncertainty across the Eurozone region are you prepared to gamble on a seismic shift in market conditions, which would be needed to significantly boost the EUR value in my opinion.

My overall opinion is that both buyers and sellers should be looking at short-term market opportunities to secure their transfers, rather than gamble on the long-term outcome whilst so much uncertainty surrounding the UK & Eurozone economies remains.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Sterling hits an 8-day high against the Euro as French Presidency fears hit the single currency (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro rate exceeded 1.1750 yesterday afternoon and the pair have held strong above this level so far, as at the time of writing the pair are still trading above this level at the mid-market level.

What’s also interesting to see is that today’s low so far is 1.1756 which indicates to me that there could be support for the pair at this level.

With Sterling gaining slowly since the official start to the Brexit process it appears that the currency has hit its lowest level and it’s now on the recovery, which many within financial markets suggesting that the Brexit has been priced into the Pounds value.

What may help the Pound make additional gains against the Euro later this month is the French Presidential election. There have been fears and hedged bets against the Euro as there’s a chance far-right candidate Marine Le Pen could perform better than many are expecting. This would likely result in Euro weakness due to her plans for a Frexit, but over the past week the increasing popularity of far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon has also weighed on the Euros value due to his views on tax tariffs.

Now that Brexit is underway economic data is playing a more prominent role in the currency fluctuations involving the Pound, so if you’re planning on making a currency exchange involving the pound and another currency do feel free to get in touch regarding these events.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

What next for GBPEUR?

GBPEUR exchange rates could now enter a very important period as we get closer to the French elections and investors take stock of the latest news on sterling. All in all, it appears to be a much more important time on the markets with investors keenly awaiting the latest news on Brexit and the French elections. I personally can see the GBPEUR rate rising on the improved sentiments over the pound whilst the Euro might weaken as we get closer to the French elections.

GBPEUR is actually 4 cents higher today than the lower levels of 2017 which is in itself a great bit of news. The prospect rates might even improve further is even better news! If you have a transfer t make in the coming weeks then understanding the market and all of your options well in advance is vital to making the most of this volatile time.

GBPEUR still has some doom merchants predicting it will drop to parity later in the year, that would not be very good news for any clients looking to buy Euros in the coming weeks. Tomorrow is the latest UK Unemployment data before we head into the long Easter weekend. Friday is Good Friday and Monday Easter Monday so there will be four days of decreased activity and thinner volumes. This can sometimes lead to some unexpected spikes so if you are making a GBPEUR transaction in the next couple of weeks understanding what is happening in advance is a smart move.

GBPEUR rates might rise but there is also a degree of risk, clearly, the Brexit is a risk factor in the days and months ahead. If you have a transfer and wish to get some expert opinion and insight on the markets then please feel free to get in touch with me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Pound falls against the Euro owing to poor economic data (Tom Holian)

The Pound has ended the week falling against the Euro after the UK posted worse than expected economic data.

UK Industrial & Manufacturing data both fell in March and this led to the Pound falling from close to a 1 month high earlier in the week vs the Euro to 1.1.6 during today’s trading session.

After the triggering of Article 50 last week the focus has now turned back to the economic data both here and the Eurozone and owing to the lacklustre data the Pound fell vs the single currency.

We also saw the release of the latest three month’s worth of UK GDP data published by the NIESR.

The figure was 0.5% for the quarter which although is still relatively strong it didn’t give the markets the boost they were perhaps looking for.

Moving the focus towards next week UK inflation data will come out on Tuesday morning.

Inflation has been rising recently in the UK and the previous month’s MPC meeting minutes showed that one of the 9 members actually voted for an interest rate hike.

Therefore, if inflation shows another increase on Tuesday it could provide support to last month’s vote and we could see a slow shift in favour of raising interest rates in the UK sooner than some have predicted.

Therefore, if you’re considering making a currency purchase between Sterling and Euro then Tuesday could cause some big movements depending on the data release.

If you would like a free quote when buying or selling Euros compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates.

Email me with details of your enquiry.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk 

GBP/EUR breaks 1.17 as services sector remains strong, will the pair hit 1.20? (Joseph Wright)

The UK economy was given a boost yesterday as data showed that its most important sector is performing well.

Economists had anticipated growth in the UK’s services sector but the figure came out higher than they had expected, and the reason Sterling saw a boost of the back of this data release is because the services sector accounts for around 75% of the UK’s economy.

For this reason data releases reflecting the health of this area of the economy can result is swings within GBP exchange rates. Due to the UK entering what could be considered a sensitive time as Brexit is now underway I expect to see these figures followed closely and I think we may see dips within the Pounds value should these figures disappoint.

Another news release which could be watched closely is Gross Domestic Product figures as these will also reflect the health of the UK economy. The next release comes out tomorrow at 1pm and the expectation is for a figure of 0.6% so expect any major deviations from this figure to result in swings within GBP/EUR exchange rates.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding major movements between the Pound and the Euro do feel free to register your details with me.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Could the Pound hit 1.20 this month? (Tom Holian)

With the trigger of Article 50 now one week behind us the focus is now returning back to the economic data in both the UK and the Eurozone.

The Pound has seen some small gains since last week touching 1.17 on the Interbank level during today’s trading session and the Pound has been creeping up against a lot of other currencies during the course of this week.

We are now less than 3 weeks away from the French elections which are likely to cause problems for the Euro as the controversial politician Marine Le Pen looks as though she will get through the first round of voting due to take place on 23rd April.

However, although she is very likely to get through the first round the likelihood is that she will be defeated when the second and final round takes place on 7th May.

However, as we have already seen with the Brexit vote and the Trump win during 2016 there appears to be a voice for change so anything is possible when it comes to politics.

If we see a surprise win for Le Pen this could send GBPEUR rates in an upward direction very quickly but personally I would be amazed to see her win the elections next month.

In the short term the UK releases the latest set of GDP figures for the last three months when the NIESR confirms the data on Friday. I think this could be rather positive for the UK as Retail Sales released recently showed a big jump and as Retail Sales are a big part of the British economy I think this could result in some positive GDP figures.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of buying Euros with Pounds then the end of the week could potentially provide a better opportunity.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing form you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Where Next for GBP/EUR following the triggering of Article 50? (Daniel Johnson)

Trade negotiations will be crucial to the value of the pound following the triggering of Article 50. Theresa May has been very positive in regards to how trade negotiations will proceed. She spoke yesterday and claimed the UK will be able to use the blue print of up to fifty current trade agreements already in place. Essentially copying deals that already in existence to avid the long drawn out negotiations process.

This could cause the first clash with Brussels. May stated “It will be possible to simply cut and paste deals with countries such as South Korea, Mexico and Jordan.”

She has caused some commotion by now claiming the exit process could take more than two years. This is not surprising to myself as I recall Sir Ivan Rogers, head EU ambassador resigned from his position stating the two year target was unrealistic. He said “negotiations could take up to ten years.”

Despite the elongation of trade deals, I am of the opinion Sterling will rally as trade negotiations progress. I do not think it will quick significant gains, more a slow steady rally.

Take in to account Marine Le Pen has the opportunity to take power in the French elections and we could see the pound gain strength against the Euro later in the month. The Head of the National Front has claimed she will hold a referendum in the event of victory. We have already witnessed the effect a referendum can have on a currency.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs and also I will perform a comparison with your current provider to demonstrate your potential savings by using our services. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

 

 

Pound vs Euro at the highest rate since February (Tom Holian)

Pound to Euro exchange rates have hit their best rate to buy Euros since late February.

Since the triggering of Article 50 on Wednesday the Pound has edged up against the single currency despite some previous predictions that the Pound would struggle once the formal announcement was made.

It appears as though the value of Sterling Euro exchange rates for the last few weeks has been priced in which means there was an expectation for the trigger of Article 50 so when it was actually announced it cause little movement for Sterling.

Indeed, at least for the time being the focus will now turn back to the economy before the EU negotiations will take place.

We saw UK GDP come in line with expectation shrugging off any Brexit fears for the fourth quarter of 2016 and this has also lent the Pound some support vs the Euro.

Also, published yesterday were Eurozone inflation figures which saw a big drop from the expectation of 2% to 1.5%.

This caused weakness for the Euro sending GBPEUR exchange rates up to their highest level since the final week of February. Good news if you need to buy Euros to send to Europe for a property purchase or even living expenses.

The reason for the weakening of the Euro is that if inflation falls it demonstrates that the QE programme which the ECB has in place until early next year it not necessarily working which means it could be extended.

It also means that the ECB will not be able to increase interest rates for quite some time. Therefore, this is the reason why we have seen Sterling increase against the Euro towards the end of the week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Article 50 triggered so what next for Pound to Euro rates? (Tom Holian)

With Article 50 now having been triggered we have not seen some of the volatility on Pound Euro exchange rates that many were expecting.

The event itself left markets with little to move on and so the foreign exchange markets as well as global stock markets remained relatively flat.

The UK has now formally triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and as we have officially started the Brexit process we have now passed the point of no return.

Prime Minister Theresa May went on to try and reassure markets that the UK will be looking for the best possible deal for the UK and she is hoping to make ‘close ties’ with Europe.

I think the speech gave some reassurance to Sterling but as the trigger was expected to happen Pound to Euro rates did not see much movement.

Therefore, the focus will once again turn back to economic data.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence data is due out shortly and this is likely to impact Sterling Euro rates.

Tomorrow we could see a big day for the short term trend for Pound Euro exchange rates with a number of different data releases due to come.

On Friday UK GDP data is due out at 930am followed by Eurozone Consumer Price Index at 10am so expect to see big swings on GBPEUR exchange rates during Friday morning as both data releases are expected to be positive for both sides

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that I can offer you bank beating exchange rates. 

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like a free quote when either buying or selling Euros then email me directly with your particular requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Pound drops as UK government plans to trigger Article 50 this afternoon (Joseph Wright)

Late last night Prime Minister Theresa May signed the letter triggering Article 50, and this letter will be delivered to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk later this afternoon at 12.30pm.

This will officially start the Brexit process in which the UK has 2 years to leave the European Union, and in this time the UK will be doing its best to set up trade negotiations both in Europe and outside of it.

In the early hours of this morning the Pound dropped, which is a change to the currency’s general direction over the past week or so as we’ve seen the currency gain. Yesterday the pair hit 1.16 which was GBP/EUR’s highest level since the beginning of the month, and since this mornings drop the Pound has recovered some ground as it appears the currency is struggling for direction.

I think there could be some further swings during today’s trading session, especially this afternoon once Article 50 has been triggered and May offers a speech. Should she give anything away regarding the UK’s plans moving forward I think there could be movement in either direction for the Pound’s value.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding major news and movements within GBP exchange rates do feel free to get in touch.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

Will the pound rise or fall tomorrow against the Euro? (Dayle Littlejohn)

Since the UK public voted out of the European Union the financial investors have been unsure whether UK would actually leave or if another referendum would take place. After a High Court ruling, a Supreme Court ruling and some other stumbling blocks UK Prime Minister Theresa May is set to trigger Article 50 tomorrow morning.

For euro sellers buying pounds this could be the spike in the market that you have waited for as I believe exchange rates will drop 1-2% in your favour. We are expecting a busy day on the market and I will have to use my time wisely however if you are looking to transfer your euros into sterling and want to achieve the best rates tomorrow feel free to email me directly with your contact details. I will give you a call first thing tomorrow morning to run through the process and a strategy to maximise your returns drl@currencies.co.uk.

For euro buyers, I hope you have purchased when the market increased to the higher teens, however if you haven’t again you can email me and I will call you first thing to secure your currency before the Prime Minister makes the announcement or another strategy would be to sit back and ride it out as the French election towards the end of April could provide opportunity. Anti EU Marine Le Pen has gained momentum in the last 3 months ans is neck and neck with pro EU Macron. If Le Pen managed to get into power we could see another country holding a referendum in regards to EU membership

With all of the articles I write, I normally state that I will respond via email however as inquiries are coming think and fast, I will only be replying to clients in the form of a call tomorrow. Therefore if you do not provide your telephone number do not expect an email until Thursday morning drl@currencies.co.uk.

Enjoy your evening and I look forward to speaking with you tomorrow morning.

 

What will happen to GBPEUR after Article 50 is triggered?

Once Article 50 is triggered I expect the pound to enter a new phase against the Euro although at the moment I cannot see it breaking it out of the recent ranges of 1.13-1.18 we have been trapped in. The pound and the Euro have both found support in recent weeks as solid economic data and improved political certainty aid both currencies. The US dollar has also weakened lately, the main beneficiaries being the pound and the Euro. Both GBPUSD and EURUSD have both risen 3-4 cent in the last couple of weeks ever since the US failed to increase their interest rate hike expectations.

There is a distinct lack of volatility in the market on GBPEUR at present with only 60 pips (0.6 of 1 cent) movement between the high and the low yesterday. Eager Euro buyers may well see some improvements once Article 50 is triggered but I cannot see it lasting long as there are some big questions on the horizon which I foresee as likely to contribute to a decline in the value of the pound. I cannot see how the UK can come out of these negotiations with a better deal than it has already with the EU.

Clients reading GBPEUR for spikes to buy Euros could find some relief around the time of the French elections although Marine Le Pen is not expected to win so any spikes could prove short-lived. I also feel it would be a risky strategy holding on since who knows how weak the pound will be at that time?

The UK’s relationship with the EU has been the downfall of many a Prime Minister and a politician, David Cameron the most recent example. Can Theresa May navigate this rocky road with her reputation and the Conservative party intact? History tells us that the odds are stacked against any success here.

If you have any requirements to buy or sell pounds and Euros in the coming weeks and months then tomorrow’s news and the political fallout on both sides of the Channel will be key to determining the direction on GBPEUR in the future. If you would like some proactive assistance with the timings of any transfer then please feel free to get in touch as I would be interested in speaking to you and offering some information on when may be the best time to buy your currency.

Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

Jonathan Watson

 

Markets Ready Themselves for Article 50! – How will Sterling React? (Matthew Vassallo)

As we enter a week in which history will be made, now is the time to consider any short-term GBP/EUR currency requirements.

On Wednesday UK Prime Minister Theresa May will trigger Article 50, which will officially start the process of the UK leaving the EU. This seismic event has never been witnessed before as the UK will be the first nation to leave the single member state, with the outcome of this having been debated for months on end.

Whilst we will not know whether this was the correct decision or not for years to come, what we do know is an element of certainty will return to the markets. Due to the fact UK’s cards will finally being laid on the table, the question now is whether  the Pound can actually benefit as a result?

I think its poignant that the Pound actually received some support following Theresa May’s announcement last week that the bill would finally be triggered this Wednesday and as such, personally, I am not anticipating a major retraction for the Pound following the event. Of course, a downturn is possible, especially when you consider how much negativity has surrounded the whole event since last year’s referendum. but my feeling is that much of that negativity has been factored into the current GBP/EUR rates.

Regardless of personal opinion I feel the markets will be somewhat relieved when this bill is invoked, as it will remove any remaining uncertainty surrounding the issue. Yes, we still have a long road ahead but hopefully as we move beyond next Wednesday the markets will refocus and assuming there are no nasty surprises around the corner, the Pound has far more chance of a sustainable recovery in my opinion.

If you have an upcoming Sterling or Euro currency transfer to make, then we can help you navigate this turbulent market by keeping clients up to speed with all the latest developments regarding Brexit and beyond.

If you would like us to monitor the market for you ahead of a currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

Article 50 and the expectations for Pound to Euro rates (Tom Holian)

Pound to Euro exchange rates have once again started to fall as we are now just days away from Article 50 being triggered.

There are many mixed opinions about what may happen to the value of Pound Sterling Euro rates once the official announcement has been made and my personal opinion is that this could be problematic for the Pound.

Although it could be argued that Article 50 has already been priced in to GBPEUR rates I cannot foresee any gains for the Pound as surely the announcement will be looked at negatively by Europe and therefore I’ll think we’ll see the Pound fall vs the Euro.

UK Retail Sales released yesterday came out much better than expected and although the Pound rose immediately after the data release the gains were short lived as the focus returns to what will happen to Sterling Euro exchange rates once Article 50 has been triggered.

I think we could see EU leaders focusing on the recent bad economic data in the UK and they may look to make an example of the deterioration in the UK economy to highlight the importance of staying in the European Union.

Sterling has got close to a 4 week high recently but I think this is short lived and simply the calm before the storm.

There is little economic data coming out during the early part of next week so it will be political influences that will cause the Pound Euro rate to move.

If you’re concerned about the impact of what may happen once Article 50 is triggered then it may be worth organising your transfer prior to Wednesday to avoid any potential risks to GBPEUR exchange rates.

Working for of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that not only am I able to offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your transfer of Euros.

For further information or for a free quote when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

How will the Invocation of Article 50 effect GBP/EUR? (Daniel Johnson)

Could we see Sterling strength?

I feel my opinion on this one is slightly controversial, I am going against the grain. I think that once the dust settles Sterling will sit in a better position than we sit now (1.16). I would not expect significant gains however.

The market moves on rumour as well as fact. We see big swings on the exchange when something unforeseen occurs. The triggering of Article 50 is a certainty and we know the date it will occur, Wednesday 29th March. I think this is already factored into current buoyancy levels on GBP/EUR.

When to move GBP – EUR

Despite my prediction, I would not perform my entire trade after the event. I would move in tranches, maybe 30% – 40% before hand in order to protect myself from potential losses. I had several clients during the Brexit vote last year convinced we would remain and Sterling would rally, rather than move in tranches, they put all their eggs in one basket. When results came through some clients found their property purchases had become tens of thousands more expensive.

There is bound to be volatility, many seven figure investors are waiting for this event before pushing the button.

If you are holding Euros I would not procrastinate too long, I think the single currency could be in for a rough year. There are two general elections within the Eurozone this year, both of which could see a far-right party gain power, which would result in a referendum. We have already seen the damage caused to Sterling by a referendum. Also keep in mind Italian banks’ bad loans now above the €360bn mark and Greek debt and we could see big falls in Euro value.

If you would like my assistance with your currency requirements I will be happy to help. I will provide an indivdual trading strategy to suit your needs and also provide a comparison against your current provider. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Positive UK Retail Sales provide Sterling support vs the Euro (Tom Holian)

UK Retail Sales have just been published this morning and they came out much better than expected.

The expectation was for 0.4% and the figures showed an improvement to 1.4% for month on month.

This surprise economic data has seen huge increases for the Pound this morning against the Euro and all other major currencies.

UK Retail Sales in recent months have been relatively low so this morning’s data has provided huge support for Sterling.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence data is due to be released at 3pm this afternoon and this has been very positive in recent months so another strong data release could reverse Sterling’s gains from this morning.

However, will this gain be short lived and will Sterling fall next week?

With now less than a week to go before Article 50 is triggered people are getting prepared for what may happen to GBPEUR exchange rates once the official letter has been sent to confirm that we will be leaving the European Union.

Many of my clients have been buying forward contracts when buying or selling Euros in order to remove the potential uncertainty of what may happen next week.

A forward contract allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit and means that whether markets go up or down you have the peace of mind knowing exactly how much it will cost.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that not only am I able to offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your trade.

If you would like more information or a free quote when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Will GBPEUR rise or fall on Article 50?

We now finally have a date for Article 50 to be triggered and are expecting some big swings on the market as investors digest the outcome. The pound could possibly rise but I think in the end this will be a sterling negative event. Expectations over the outcome remain constrained to the likelihood that the market is viewing Brexit in a negative light. If the pound was to benefit so much from Article 50 being triggered why has it lost between 10 and 15% of its strength the vote last June?

The counter of course to this argument is that much of the weakness is priced in and we will actually see some movement higher as a relief rally. My greater concern for sterling, however, is the new set of questions we will be faced with once the Article 50 is invoked. What kind of deal will the UK get and how much is the Brexit bill will all weigh on the pound and makes anticipating the next moves tricky as the market tries to digest just what is happening and how it feels.

Overall I do believe the pound is likely to struggle and any Euro weakness we see as a result of the French election will ultimately be neutralised by a weaker pound in this period. We are gearing up for a very volatile period and with the 29th March now set as a date for the triggering of Article 50, all eyes will be on the pound and what may happen.

If you have a transfer to consider involving buying or selling the pound it is well worth making some plans in advance to navigate the uncertainty. We are here to help with proactive assistance to help you achieve your desired higher exchange rate. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

What impact could Article 50 have on Sterling? (Tom Holian)

There are a lot of mixed opinions as to what could happen to Pound Euro exchange rates in the weeks ahead once Article 50 has finally been triggered.

As yet no formal date has been announced so we still do not know exactly when this will happen. However, according to Brexit secretary David David it will happen before the end of the month.

With Royal Assent having now been granted then the UK government could trigger it any day now so why delay?

In my opinion the government is stalling as it still does not yet know what it will do when formal negotiations start.

What is for sure is that 2 years of uncertainty will be facing the UK and if negotiations get off to a bad start then we could see huge problems ahead for the Pound.

When you look at what happened immediately following the Brexit vote back in June last year the Pound saw its biggest single daily loss in history against the Euro as well as against all other major currencies.

The uncertainty caused by what happened had a huge negative effect on Sterling exchange rates.

This time round things are likely to be slightly different however I do expect to see a huge amount of volatility coming in the direction for Sterling.

It has never been more important to be prepared for such uncertainty on GBPEUR exchange rates so if you would like further information about how I can save you money compared to using a bank when converting Euros then contact me directly.

Having seen what happened with Brexit last year anything could happen in the next fortnight. 

If you would like a free quote then contact me directly with a brief outline of what you need to do including the volume and timescale involved and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Pound to Euro rate drops in wake in Dutch election results, where to next for GBP/EUR? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has continued to lose value against the Euro throughout the month, and despite making a few fight-backs the currency is now lodged below the 1.15 mark at the mid-market level.

Late last night it was announced that Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte won the most seats in the parliamentary election, and defeated far-right hopeful Gert Wilders who was predicted to put in a strong performance. Had Wilders of won more seats or put in a stronger performance I would have expected to see the Euro lose value on fears of his plans to remove the Netherlands from the EU, but the win for the current Prime Minister has eased these fears which has strengthened the Euro further.

The Euro had been boosted recently after the European Central Bank recently confirmed that they will be tapering the current quantitative easing programme due to signs of the economy improving.

Moving forward I think we could see the Euro gain even further as the Brexit begins, particularly if it becomes public that trade negotiations are going badly.

Later today there will be an interest rate decision from the Bank of England, and although no changes are expected it will be interesting to see what governor Mark Carney has to say regarding the UK economy.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.