Category Archives: GBP Forecast

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Finds Some Support After Last Week’s Heavy Losses (Matthew Vassallo)

The Pound has found a level of support against the Euro this week, following a poor run over the past couple of weeks.

GBP/EUR rates are now trading back above 1.14, which will be welcomed by any clients looking to execute a GBP/EUR currency exchange over the coming days.

It’s been well documented that the Pound has been under pressure of late. Investors quickly sold off their GBP currency position, when it became clear that the Bank of England (BoE) would not be raising interest rates at their recent policy meeting.

I do believe that the BoE and Mark Carney in particular have lost a lot of credibility and this could have an impact on Sterling’s value moving forward, which in turn could help support any increase in value for the EUR.

Looking at the GBP/EUR pair and the trend over the past 12 months has been repetitive, with the Pound seemingly finding a level of support only to be knocked back time and again.

It is unlikely that a move back towards the highs of last year, when the Pound was trading in the higher teens and one stage even seemed as if it could put pressure back on the dizzy heights of 1.20.

Fast forward and it those levels seem ambitious at best, especially when you consider that UK growth forecasts for 2018 have been cut once again to 1.4%.

Despite the current malaise, the Eurozone is not without its own problems. Political fragmentation across the region, Italy being the prime example, could potentially destabilise the Eurozone economy.

We have already seen a downturn from last year and for this reason, it still seems as though the downside risk, outweighs the upside benefits for those clients holding EUR.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Euro buying opportunity as Italian politics causes concern

The Euro has weakened as investors struggle to make sense of the latest news from Italy and their political situation as we wait to learn the latest coalition proposals. This has been directly linked to the latest news from the 5-Star party and also the far-right league who have both indicated that they are pursuing an agenda which does not conform to the current visions embodied by Merkel and Macron.

Aiming for deeper integration we have seen the Euro rising on the back of previously held views which believe the Eurozone is likely to grow close together and represent a more solid foundation for the future. This highly held view is now under threat as we begin to see a worrying picture emerging of political uncertainty which might create some concerns for future.

The Italian situation could easily spiral out of control as markets being to digest the latest news which is emerging of a government that does not correspond to the high expectations being placed on them. Any breakdown in talks or pursuit of policies which go against the current sentiments from the EU will ultimately lead to a concern for the markets that the Eurozone has some tough questions to answer on the politics front.

GBPEUR has nearly hit 1.15 this morning and EURUSD hit 1.17 today, these are excellent fresh opportunities which may not last if the current viewpoint suddenly deteriorates. If you have a transfer to consider in the future then making plans in advance is sensible to try and avoid the prospect of the market suddenly moving against you.

For more information at no cost or obligation please don’t hesitate to contact me Jonathan buy emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Has GBP/EUR already hit its 2018 high, and what factors could drive its value as the year progresses?

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is currently trading around the 1.14 mark, after seeing a slight boost yesterday off the back of some positive data.

After beginning yesterday’s trading session closer to the 1.13 mark the Pound was boosted when the Office of National Statistics (ONS) announced that UK unemployment sits at the record low of 4.2%, and that wage growth in the UK has outpaced the rate of inflation for the first time in a year.

Despite this positive data the Pound to Euro rate is still a couple of cents from its highest levels this year when the pair almost hit 1.16. The positive sentiment surrounding the Pound has since dropped off after the Bank of England voted against a rate hike at last weeks monetary policy meeting.

In order for GBP/EUR to hit a new 2018 high I think there will need to be a breakthrough regarding the final Brexit deal, as such positive news would likely push the Pound higher. I also think that if talk of a rate hike returns later in the year we could see a stronger Pound, especially if the European Central Bank (ECB) continue to hold off of raising interest rates this year.

For those following the pair, its worth noting that Morgan Stanley are predicting short term weakness in the Pounds value, before a longer term recovery as they believe the Pound is oversold and that this will continue in the short term future.

There is a lack of data out of the UK for the rest of the week, but this mornings inflation data from the Eurozone may influence exchange rates.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Important day for GBP/EUR exchange rates – U.K Unemployment and European growth figures the headlines

Today will be important for GBP/EUR exchange rates as we have the release of some key data for both the U.K and Europe which will no doubt have an impact on GBP/EUR exchange rates.

First and foremost we haver U.K unemployment and average earnings figures which will be focussed on by investors, speculators and the Bank of England as economic data at present is extremely important for where we may head next with interest rates.

A drop off in economic data for the U.K has recently dampened the chances of a rate hike which in turn has led to weakness for the Pound. An interest rate hike (or the mere speculation of one) can add value to a currency as we see an increase in demand due to it being more attractive to investors.

Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney commented at his latest interest rate decision that as long as there were no economic disasters we should see an interest rate hike soon, so a slight lift in average earnings or drop in unemployment may give Sterling exchange rates a lift this morning.

European growth figures are due out at 10:00am this morning and expectations are for the figure to remain at 0.4% for Q1 of 2018 and 2.5% growth year on year, should this be the case then this may not impact the markets too much but any deviation from this could give the Euro a fairly volatile period mid-morning. There had been concerns over growth in many areas of the Eurozone so it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see these figures revised down a little.

If you are in the position that you need to carry out a currency exchange involving buying Euros with Pounds or exchanging your Euros back into Pound then you are more than welcome to get in touch with me and I will be  happy to help you personally. The brokerage I work for has been operating for 18 years now and we pride ourselves on getting clients not only the best exchange rates on the market but also offering the very highest level of customer service too.

If you would like to discuss a specific scenario or exchange with me then feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch personally.

Bank of England keep rates on hold which causes the Pound to fall against the Euro

The Bank of England confirmed yesterday that they would be keeping interest rates on hold and the vote was split 7-2 in favour of keeping interest rates the same.

The Interbank level fell from 1.1450 to 1.1380 minutes after the announcement as some now feel that an interest rate hike may be a long time away from coming.

UK GDP data which came out a fortnight ago showed growth was at just 0.1% for the first quarter and this was one of the principle reasons for keeping rates on hold and this caused investors to sell off the Pound.

A potential interest rate hike was one of the main factors for Sterling’s strength against the Euro last month but since then the focus will turn back to what is happening with the Brexit talks which are still very uncertain.

ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak this afternoon so any hints that there may be a change to the current monetary policy could see some volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates.

On Tuesday we are likely to see a very volatile start to the week as there are a number of economic data releases to watch out for.

We begin Tuesday with the release UK unemployment figures and at the same time Average Earnings are also due out. If average earnings show another positive reading then this could provide some support for a rate hike to come in the future and with UK Inflation Report Hearings due out at 11am we could see a lot of movement.

Also on Tuesday Eurozone GDP data is released at 10am so expect Tuesday to be the biggest day of movement for GBPEUR exchange rates.

Having worked in the foreign exchange markets since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your transfer.

For a free quote then contact me directly by calling 01494787478 and asking for Tom Holian when calling or email me directly with a brief description of your currency requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Falters Following BoE Interest Rate Decision (Matthew Vassallo)

The Pound has retracted against Euro counterpart during “Super Thursday” following a host of UK data releases and of course, the much anticipated interest rate decision by the Bank of England (BoE).

GBP/EUR rates have fallen back towards 1.13, hitting 1.1315 at this afternoon’s low. This is a drop of almost a cent and a half from its earlier high, as investors continued to sell-off their Sterling positions throughout afternoon trading.

Today’s dip came following news yesterday that the House of Lords had voted to stay in the single market. It must be noted that it is highly unlikely that the House of Commons will uphold the amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill, with neither the Conservatives or Labour parties backing the changes.

It did however add to the uncertainly, which is currently threatening to destabilise and cloud the UK’s position during the on-going Brexit negotiations.

This uncertainty was already handicapping any major advances for Sterling against the Euro. Today’s poor economic data releases and a fairly dovish statement by BoE governor Mark Carney will only add to this and it now unlikely GBP/EUR rates will head back to the recent highs of 1.15+ in the short-term.

UK Industrial production figures came out below the markets predicted result and trade balance figures also made for grim reading. These coupled with Carney distancing the central bank from any specific timeline on a future interest rate hike, has produced more questions than answers for investors over the coming weeks.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

What can we expect for GBPEUR rates from the Bank of England interest rate decision?

The pound to Euro exchange rate is trading in familiar ranges in a volatile manner as the market is trying to second guess what we can expect next from the Bank of England. The interest rate decision is at 12 noon today and we also have the latest Quarterly Inflation Report from Mark Carney and his team too. The pound has been very susceptible to changes in UK rate expectations and today is a day of reckoning.

The rates could rise to the previous highs today of 1.16 but this seems unlikely given the current expectation that the pound would actually lose value because of the Bank of England being now less likely to raise interest rates. Over the next few weeks, we are likley to see lots of volatility as the markets try to second guess just what the Bank of England are looking to do longer-term.

The outlook for sterling is undoubtedly more positive than the expectations previously set by the Bank of England but we are unlikely to actually see any actual hike today, I think it is more likely to be longer-term in the future when we will see a hike. GBPEUR will, therefore, be more than likely to rise higher in the future as we get more news regarding just what the final expectations are for the pound.

GBPEUR will more than likely trade within a range of 1.13-1.15 in my opinion. If you have a transfer buying or selling the pound against the Euro then I would be looking to make plans ahead of the event to ensure I can capitalise on the volatility.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

GBP Rates Before Bank of England Meeting

The Bank of England meet tomorrow for the next interest rate decision where it is expected that interest rates will remain on hold. After a series of weaker economic data the pressure is now firmly off the central bank from raising interest rates tomorrow. A combination of weak retail sales data, a drop in the performance of the services sector and most importantly the sharper fall seen in the Gross Domestic Product numbers all make for a valid reason for the Bank of England to not raise rates. Clients looking to buy Euros may wish to consider moving before the event to avoid potential disappointment.

UK GDP for the first quarter arrived at just 0.1% indicating the lowest growth in the UK in five years. The cold weather brought from the Beast from the East is the main contributor to the weaker data but there hasn’t been a bounce yet which could restore some calm to the markets.

The pound could see a small rally if the central bank indicates that it is still set for additional hikes later this year. However in my opinion the Bank of England are more likely to highlight risks to the British economy especially when considering the continuing Brexit negotiations.

For the Eurozone the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will be speaking tomorrow and he may offer some more clues as to future monetary policy. He has recently cited low inflation as a reason to continue with its asset purchasing scheme which has proved negative for Euro exchange rates. For the moment the central bank is continuing with the tapering of the vast asset purchasing scheme and more of this rhetoric should prove negative for Euro exchange rates.

For more information on sterling exchange rates and the Euro and how to take advantage of any spikes in the currency markets then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Euro rate hits May high this morning, will Euro weakness continue to push the rate higher?

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has hit a month high this morning, after breaking through 1.14 quite comfortably earlier today for the first time in May.

At the time of writing the pair are trading at 1.1425, offering those exchanging Pounds into Euros the chance to make their trade at the best levels in a few weeks. The move this morning looks like its off the back Euro weakness, with the EUR/USD rate hitting a fresh 2018 low over the past day.

The Euro is the worst performing major currency of the past week, and talk of stubborn inflationary levels stopping the ECB from amending the current monetary policy are beginning to dampen sentiments surrounding the Euro also. The European Central Bank has confirmed that there will be no interest rate hikes this year which is also dampened sentiment towards the Euro, so I can understand why the single currency is dropping especially when we consider how strong it’s been over the last year.

There are a few downsides for the Pound that I think Sterling sellers should be aware of. With Brexit talks stalling in the House of Lords and the Northern Irish border also becoming a hot topic, I think there is a chance the Pound could see a sell-off should there be a negative Brexit related update, and the UK economy has also been showing signs of a slowdown to Sterling sellers should be weary.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPEUR exchange rates rise or fall by the end of the week?

With GBPEUR exchange reaches back above 1.14, it seems like a good time for euro buyer to take advantage as I expect the pound could come under pressure on Thursday when the Bank of England announce their latest interest rate decision.

The chances of a rate hike have dropped to 20% from 80% according to Lloyds and the reason for the fall is that UK economic data released last month disappointed. Retail sales, inflation and GDP all dropped significantly and recent Brexit developments are also putting pressure on the Bank of England’s decision.

Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has stated over the last 18 months that Brexit developments will influence monetary policy, and with the House of Lords on a weekly basis heavily criticizing the Government, UK Prime Minister Theresa May appears to be stuck between a rock and a hard place. It was only this afternoon the House of Lords stated the UK should remain part of the single market.

My personal opinion is that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold and the Governor Mark Carney will continue with his stance that a hike is likely to occur this year, however he will not confirm when and this will cause the pound to lose further value.

To finish the week all eyes will turn to the ECB and President Mario Draghi’s speech. Every time the President speaks, investors are watching closely for guidance in regards to the QE program. Time is running out for the President as he will want to give the markets as much time to adjust and the plan was to cut the QE program by the end of the year. This story has the potential to have a major influence of GBPEUR exchange rates moving forward.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR currency transfers feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

 

 

Sterling is on shaky ground (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/EUR – The fragility of the pound is currently being demonstrated as political uncertainty and a host of poor data releases weigh down Sterling. We have had poor inflation, poor retail sales and GDP arrived at 0.1%, the lowest figures in five years. The highly anticipated rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) in May now seems off the cards with little justification to do so other than unemployment hitting a 43 yr low. This however may not be so impressive, with many on zero hour contracts, not the most stable form of employment.

Political uncertainty has been another catalyst for Sterling’s fall. Theresa May is facing criticism for her stance on access to the customs union following Brexit. Keep an eye on developments as they will influence GBP/EUR.

If you have a Euro requirement short term move if the market hits the 1.14s.

Euro sellers – short term you could see gains, but be wary of holding on for too long with high expectations as Sterling is chronically undervalued. Clarity on Brexit will cause the Pound to rally.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Under Pressure Despite Yesterday’ Gains (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling found some support against the EUR during Wednesday’s trading, following comments by UK Prime Minister Theresa May.

There had been speculation that MP’s would look for “vote of no confidence in the PM”, in regards to the UK’s stance on leaving the EU’s customs union. Theresa May was quick to play down this scenario and after rejected the notion the Pound rallied against the EUR during afternoon trading.

Despite finding some support Sterling failed to make any significant impact against the single currency, with the Euro finding plenty of support under 1.14.

Yesterday’s positive move was short-lived, with GBP/EUR rates hitting 1.1338 at this morning’s low.

The Pound seems to have lost all of its momentum over recent days, having moved close to 12 month highs towards the end of April.

It seems as though the primary reason for its demise is linked to next week’s Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision.

It had been widely anticipated that the central bank would hike rates at their next policy meeting but a drastic change in market conditions, has seen sentiment swing the other way.

Having been well supported for weeks, Sterling is come under a huge amount of pressure this week, with investors selling off their Sterling positions with haste, causing its value to dip at an alarming rate. Poor Manufacturing figures earlier this week intensified this negative feeling, following on from Friday’s disappointing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.

It is now extremely unlikely that the BoE will raise rates next week in my opinion, with the 0.25% rise likely to be pushed back until further data is analysed over the coming weeks. However, even a strong run  of data over the coming weeks may not be enough, with early reports suggesting a rate rise may now be off the table until at least the last quarter of this year.

Therefore those client with an upcoming GBP currency exchange to execute may be left disappointed if they hold out for any major improvement over the coming days.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

GBP/EUR trading around a 6-week low, will the pair continue to fall?

The Pound has come under pressure once again today, not just compared to the Euro but across the board of major currencies. Those planning on making a large transfer from Pounds into Euros are seeing the cost of Euros become more expensive on almost a daily basis at the moment, and there are a number of reasons for this.

The financial markets had previously been pricing in an interest rate hike from the Bank of England, up to 0.75% which would be the highest rate since the UK exited the global recession almost 10-years ago. This rate hike is now looking a lot less likely after some disappointing GDP figures released lat week showed a slowdown in the UK economy. According to the preliminary GDP figures, the UK economy has slowed to its slowest level in 5-years and although much of this is being attributed to the terrible weather in the first quarter of this year.

At the same time Manufacturing data released this morning showed that the sector has dropped to a 17-month low. With the UK economy appearing to slowdown the chances of a rate hike have slipped and now Lloyd’s Bank are only expecting a 20% chance of the hike actually happening this month.

Tomorrow there is Construction data to be released and then on Thursday there will be Services data released, all out of the UK. Further weak data in my opinion is highly likely to result in a further sell-off of the Pound, so do feel free to register your interest with me if you would like to be notified should there be a major spike do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP/EUR stuck at pivotal point of 1.15 – Will rates break above or head back down?

Sterling is currently sat around the 1.15 mark against the Euro and appears to be fairly range bound as we head towards the end of the trading week. Yesterday saw the most volatility for the pairing that we have seen this week following the European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference, this led to a little Euro weakness and Sterling moving back up through 1.15.

This rise was short lived however, as profit taking knocked the pound back below 1.15 and now we appear to be sat at a pivotal point for where GBP/EUR exchange rates will head next. This morning we have growth figures released for the U.K and this will be the first set of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures for quarter 1 of 2018.

Expectations aren’t great for this data set due to the extremely poor weather that we had in the U.K in the early part of the year. Cold snaps and lots of snow ground the U.K to a halt on more than one occasion which can only dent economic productivity.

The release is due out at 09:30am this morning so if you have a Euro exchange to carry out in the coming weeks then this will be key for you. This release will also impact on the Bank of England’s next interest rate decision on May 10th. members of the MPC are currently watching every U.K data release extremely closely and the chance of an interest rate hike is currently in the balance, if they go ahead and do it we may see Sterling strength, if they hold off then the Pound may weaken.

Should you be in the position that you need to carry out an exchange in the coming days, weeks or months ahead then it is well worth getting in touch with me personally as I can help you with your transfer. We do not only offer the highest levels of exchange but also an extremely efficient level of customer service too. Feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to speak to you personally.

GBP/EUR hits 1.15 (Daniel Johnson)

Draghi hints at prolonged QE

Today at the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting Mario Draghi the head of the ECB has indicated that Quantitative Easing (QE) could well continue into 2019 despite earlier hints that it would be ending this year. QE is pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth, current monthly increments are €30bn, if there was to be a cut you would expect the Euro to strengthen significantly. News that  QE could continue has caused GBP/EUR to move above 1.15.

In my opinion considering the current situation in the UK in regards to ongoing talks on the custom union situation it is a favourable time to buy Euros. 1.1599 has been the peak of the market in the last 11 months. We currently sit at 1.15, buying a cent away form an 11 month high is not a bad idea if you have to move short term.

If you have time to play with I am confident Sterling is c undervalued. Pre- Brexit levels were in the 1.40s, as further clarity is provided on Brexit the pound will rally, when, depends on the competence and attitude of those negotiating, throwing into the mix other UK political parties with their own agendas complicating matters.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take  a couple of minutes and could be well worth your while.

You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company  trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.

If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

How will the ECB and the BoE move rates?

The BoE (Bank of England) and the ECB (European Central Bank) are going to be the main talking points that come up in the weeks ahead as we get further clarification on the final outcomes of economic policy for both central banks. The decisions by both teams will more than likely lead to movement on GBPEUR rates and these two events are well worth monitoring closely.

Tomorrow is the ECB interest rate decision which could easily trigger some volatility in Euro rates since there is a lack of uncertainty over what kind of commentary we will see from the ECB team. President of the ECB Mario Draghi will be leading the helm and give us the latest views on monetary policy moving forward.

Recent ECB Meeting Minutes highlighted a concern about a strong Euro and this is what saw the Euro much weaker a couple of weeks ago. This is really at odds with the behaviour of the Euro at the last ECB meeting where the Euro rose to its strongest point of 2018 against the pound.

The 10th May sees the Bank of England meeting which is likely to be a very strong trigger on the pound as investors are expecting an interest rate hike but it is by no means set in stone. The uncertainty about whether or not the UK will hike plus the lack of clarity about future hikes will all act as trigger points for future volatility on GBPEUR.

If you have any currency transfers buying or selling the pound against the Euro these pieces of news are likely to be a major market mover and it is well worth highlighting any potential transfer to us well in advance. For more information at no cost or obligation over what to expect and what to be prepared for, please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Is the trend of a strong April for the Pound about to end?

The seasonal trend of the Pound gaining throughout the month of April looks set to end this month, which is coincidentally the 13th month unlikely when the Pound is compared with the US Dollar.

The Pound tends to perform well against most major currency pairs including the Euro during April, with the trend being attributed to the new tax year and a lot of dividend payments being made around this time in GBP denominated equities.

It looks like 13th time unlikely as the Pound is trading below its starting point versus the US Dollar and the Euro when the month begun. Sterling has been coming under pressure recently after some poor Retail Sales figures and lower inflation and wage growth figures. The drop in the Pounds value and sentiment surrounding it have led the Bank of America Merrill Lynch to drop their bet on the Pound gaining in value during the month of April.

I also think that Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney failing to confirm the expected interest rate hike from the BoE next month has also impacted the Pound negatively, and the issues surrounding whether or not the UK will leave the EU Customs Union is also weighing on the Pounds value.

If you would like to discuss any upcoming transfers you’re planning, I think next months BoE meeting on the 10th of May is key, and feel free to get in touch to plan around this event and ask for my opinion.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound weakens after hopes of a rate hike in May are dampened, where to next for the GBP/EUR rate? (Joseph Wright)

Financial markets had been pricing in an interest rate hike from the Bank of England since some bullish comments from the Bank of England last month.

The hopes of a rate hike have since dampened after some important comments from the governor of the Bank of England. Yesterday evening whilst speaking to the BBC, Mark Carney cooled expectations of a rate hike next month after not confirming that it would actually happen. There have been a few members of the BoE that have already voted in favour of hiking interest rates, and with the rate of wage growth in the UK now picking up and similar to inflation levels, many were expecting the base rate in the UK to rise to its highest level since the UK exited the recession.

Carney commented that he didn’t want to become too focused on the precise timing of the next rate hike, and although he didn’t rule out the hike he didn’t confirm it which has caused the Pound to weaken in value.

Sterling had been strengthening recently after the Brexit transitional deal has been agreed and hopes of the rate hike next month, so seeing the GBP/EUR rate drop from its highs isn’t a surprise.

There is still a rate hike likely this year although when it will happen remains to be seen. Next week UK GDP is due out on Friday, so if you’re planning on making a transfer involving the Pound and the Euro do feel free to get in touch as there is plenty of time to plan around next Friday’s release.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Drop in Inflation decreases probability of BOE Rate hike (Daniel Johnson)

Is a rate hike in May by the BOE still likely?

Yesterday we saw the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. CPI is a key measure of inflation and there was a fall to 2.5%. In order to have a healthy economy it is important that average wage growth be close to parity with inflation and this is currently the case, with average wage growth (2.8%) currently sitting above inflation. Although this could be seen as very positive, could it be considered a danger that people are making more money but are not willing to spend it?

Also if inflation in coming into line with the Bank of England’s (BOE) 2% target, could this put the potential rate hike in May on hold?

This is the concern and this is the reason we saw Sterling fall in value yesterday. I am of the opinion a rate hike will still take place due to previous strong economic data. Although Retail sales data to be released this morning could change that. There is expected to be a fall from 0.8% to – 0.5%. I would be surprised to see it the predicted – 0.5% so this could indeed strengthen the pound if there is only a slight decline. If it falls below -0.5% however this could indeed really put a rate hike in May in question.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving.  I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

Will GBPEUR go even higher?

The pound to Euro exchange rate is now touching the best rates since May 2017 which easily begs the question can this continue? GBPEUR has touched 1.16 in what has been a very positive few weeks for the pound and some uncertainty for the Euro as investors look to the Bank of England poised to raise interest rates, whilst investors brace themselves for the ECB, European Central Bank to be less positive.

The next big piece of news tomorrow morning is Inflation data which is released at 09.30 am and this will provide further evidence on just how the UK economy is performing and whether we can expect the Bank of England to be looking to raise interest rates or not in May. To many, it seems foregone conclusion and this has helped the pound to rise to the levels that we have seen.

GBPEUR faces some more challenges next week with the latest UK economic growth data which will be the first estimate for Q1 for the UK, the snow is likely to have affected the UK economy and hence growth could be lower. Subdued growth for the UK is absolutely a concern which could derail further interest rate hikes, there is also an important ECB policy meeting next Thursday which could trigger some volatility in the markets.

If you have a transfer buying or selling the pound against the Euro then making plans in this turbulent time is very sensible to try and gauge the expected outcomes, if you wish to run through or discuss any transactions please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and assisting with any transfers.