Category Archives: GBP Forecast
We now finally have a date for Article 50 to be triggered and are expecting some big swings on the market as investors digest the outcome. The pound could possibly rise but I think in the end this will be a sterling negative event. Expectations over the outcome remain constrained to the likelihood that the market is viewing Brexit in a negative light. If the pound was to benefit so much from Article 50 being triggered why has it lost between 10 and 15% of its strength the vote last June?
The counter of course to this argument is that much of the weakness is priced in and we will actually see some movement higher as a relief rally. My greater concern for sterling, however, is the new set of questions we will be faced with once the Article 50 is invoked. What kind of deal will the UK get and how much is the Brexit bill will all weigh on the pound and makes anticipating the next moves tricky as the market tries to digest just what is happening and how it feels.
Overall I do believe the pound is likely to struggle and any Euro weakness we see as a result of the French election will ultimately be neutralised by a weaker pound in this period. We are gearing up for a very volatile period and with the 29th March now set as a date for the triggering of Article 50, all eyes will be on the pound and what may happen.
If you have a transfer to consider involving buying or selling the pound it is well worth making some plans in advance to navigate the uncertainty. We are here to help with proactive assistance to help you achieve your desired higher exchange rate. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan by emailing email@example.com.
There are a lot of mixed opinions as to what could happen to Pound Euro exchange rates in the weeks ahead once Article 50 has finally been triggered.
As yet no formal date has been announced so we still do not know exactly when this will happen. However, according to Brexit secretary David David it will happen before the end of the month.
With Royal Assent having now been granted then the UK government could trigger it any day now so why delay?
In my opinion the government is stalling as it still does not yet know what it will do when formal negotiations start.
What is for sure is that 2 years of uncertainty will be facing the UK and if negotiations get off to a bad start then we could see huge problems ahead for the Pound.
When you look at what happened immediately following the Brexit vote back in June last year the Pound saw its biggest single daily loss in history against the Euro as well as against all other major currencies.
The uncertainty caused by what happened had a huge negative effect on Sterling exchange rates.
This time round things are likely to be slightly different however I do expect to see a huge amount of volatility coming in the direction for Sterling.
It has never been more important to be prepared for such uncertainty on GBPEUR exchange rates so if you would like further information about how I can save you money compared to using a bank when converting Euros then contact me directly.
Having seen what happened with Brexit last year anything could happen in the next fortnight.
If you would like a free quote then contact me directly with a brief outline of what you need to do including the volume and timescale involved and I look forward to hearing from you.
Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org
Why has Sterling fallen against the Euro this week? This is down to a number of factors with the rate to buy Euros now the lowest level since early January.
On late Friday afternoon rumours have surfaced that the International Monetary Fund may look to bailout Greece after previously suggesting that they they may slow down their loans.
This has helped the Euro to make gains vs the Pound with the biggest daily gains vs Sterling seen on Friday since last month.
The UK also posted poor Industrial Production & Manufacturing data yesterday morning and this caused the Pound to start the day off on a bad foot.
The Pound is still being negatively affected by what is happening politically in the UK with Article 50 predicted to be triggered at some point this month. However, as yet there has been no formal announcement as to when this will occur.
This has discouraged investors to hold Sterling and this is why we have seen the Pound react badly to the uncertainty.
Currency is generally affected by two main factors including economic and political data. Therefore, with a bad economic data release combined with the uncertainty of Article 50 is why we have seen the Pound fall against all major currencies including the Euro.
Next week the US Federal Reserve are almost 100% certain to put up interest rates which would typically result in Dollar strength and Euro weakness. However, with the European Central Bank having confirmed that they will taper their current amount of QE from EUR80bn to EUR60bn per month by early next year the rate rise from the US is likely to negatively affect the value of Sterling.
If you would like further information about expectations for Sterling vs Euro exchange rates or would like a free quote when buying Euros then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.
Tom Holian email@example.com
Draghi showed his prowess at public speaking today. Addressing concerns in the Eurozone and providing solutions for potential problems. I have to admit this guy is good. He seems to address serious problems in the Eurozone with an “everything will be O.K fashion.”
I have witnessed Draghi convince the market with words in the past, despite actions to the contrary by the ECB in the past. I distinctly remember an occasion when it was announced Draghi would be increasing stimulus to the QE program to the tune of €20bn a month, the markets reacted to his reassurances of stability rather than the action of pumping €20bn into an struggling economy.
My opinion is that the Euro is in for a rough year. Three general elections will take place this year. There is the strong possibility a far right party gaining power in one of these elections which would could bring about a referendum. We have witnessed the damage caused to Sterling by the vote to leave the EU. Geert Wilder is ahead in the polls in the Holland (although it will be difficult for him to establish a coalition) and Marine Le Pen the leader of the National Front has a real chance of winning.
Let us also consider Italian bank’s bad loans, now in excess of €360bn due to their lack of a contingency plan. Greek debt, the problem that will not go away and unemployment within the bloc bordering on 18 million.
Short to medium term the pound has potential to fall due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. But, my opinion is similar to that of Morgan Stanley analysts.
“The pound is one of the most undervalued currencies in the world and will return to pre-Brexit levels.”
I do not think Sterling’s value will rise quickly, but as trade deals become more apparent I am of the strong opinion the pound will rally.
If I was holding Euros, I would sell now. Moving when GBP/EUR sits in the 1.14s is not a bad move considering what could lie ahead.
If you would like my assistance with your trades, do get in touch. I can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org. Thank you for reading.
The rate to sell Euros has hit its best level in two months against Sterling as problems concerning the triggering of Article 50 continue to weigh heavily on the Pound.
The Euro is also up against the US Dollar this morning as it appears as though the French political situation is driving sentiment for the single currency.
The big news of the day will come at lunchtime when the European Central Bank meet today. There is little expectation that the ECB will change any monetary policy but the subsequent press conference when ECB president Mario Draghi speaks could cause some volatility for Sterling vs Euro exchange rates this afternoon.
When we look at what is happening politically in France at the moment the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen appears to be leading the vote and is likely to get through the first round of voting which takes place on April 23rd.
However, the general expectation is that she will lose the next and final round which takes place on May 7th. This is another reason why the Euro has started to make gains vs the Pound over the last fortnight.
The EU summit is due to take place today with the main two talking points to be discussed both Greece and the Brexit so expect further volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates over the next 24 hours.
However, the overall influence for the value of Sterling will be the issue of Article 50 and until this has been resolved and we get some form of clarity as to when negotiations can start I expect the Pound to suffer against the Euro.
For further information about the process of buying or selling Euros or if you’d like a free quote then contact me directly. Working for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that not only can I offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your currency transfer.
Tom Holian email@example.com
The pound to euro rate has slipped to a 1 month low as sterling buckles under fresh economic uncertainty from the Brexit. Many commentators now feel the UK is likely to enter a period of slow growth which does not bode well for the future. As the economy begins to slow down this is being attributed to the weak pound as it makes overseas purchases more expensive and pushes up costs for many businesses and consumers. The weaker pound we are seeing is likely to continue in the coming weeks particularly as we get closer to the triggering of Article 50.
Article 50 could be triggered any day now and the viewpoint that the pound will strengthen is perhaps not as entrenched as first might have been believed. The overall trend on GBPEUR has been lower lately and personally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see further losses. Much of the recent Euro weakness has now been priced into the current GBPEUR offering which will I believe see the rate struggle to rise much higher.
If you have a transfer involving the pound and the euro making some plans in advance is crucial to understanding what we will expect next. The rate could just as easily slip to 1.10 as fly up to 1.20. I expect the level will find some support now we have had all the bad news in the market priced in.
If you have a transfer to make please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing firstname.lastname@example.org for the latest trends and themes and some proactive assistance to meet and secure your currency.
There are many factors this month which are currently affecting the rate to buy and sell Euros with the current overriding factor the issue of Article 50.
Currently the House of Lords has challenged the Brexit bill with the Lords wanting to retain the rights of European people living and working in the UK.
They are also looking to arrange a reciprocal deal with Europe to protect the rights of Britons living abroad. This latest challenge to the government has set back their plans at least for the time being.
This has caused the Pound to drop vs the single currency but I think once the Dutch and French elections begin then this could cause the Euro to face problems in the future.
It is clear that Sterling is struggling with the Brexit uncertainty and this is likely to weigh heavily on the Pound for the time being.
However, with Geert Wilders likely to be the winner when the Dutch elections take place in just less than 2 weeks time as he is the leader of a far-Right party who wants to hold his own referendum about the Netherlands staying in the European Union then this could cause weakness for the single currency.
There is also the problem ahead for the Euro with the French elections due to start of 23rd April. It appears as though Marine Le Pen will make it through the first round of the voting and could be one of two candidates to potentially win when the final vote takes place on May 7th.
If she does win this could cause longer term problems for the single currency vs Sterling so if you are worried about what may happen to Sterling vs the Euro in the weeks ahead it may be worth buying a forward contract which allows you to fix your exchange rate for a future date for a small deposit.
To find out more information or for a free quote when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.
Tom Holian email@example.com
The House of Lords voted yesterday in favour of protecting EU citizens rights who are residing in the UK. The pound suffered as a result as this could potentially delay the invocation of article 50. The PM has however made reassurances that this will not cause a delay in an official exit from the EU.
Personally I am surprised the market reacted in this fashion. I am not surprised this amendment was made and I would not expect it to delay the triggering of article 50.
The brexit bill will now be handed back to the House of commons for approval. I doubt there will be much resistance. If more amendments are made however we could see political ping-pong as the bill passes back and fourth between houses.
Between now and the triggering of article 50 the markets will be extremely difficult to predict. If you have to trade during this period it is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you would like my no obligation help drop me an e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org. Let me know the currency you are trading, your time scale and a ball park figure as to the size of your trade and I will endeavour to provide a trading strategy to suit your individual requirement.
After the invocation of Article 50 I expect Sterling to gain strength. Sterling’s current position is due to the uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations, when there is more clarity in regards to trade deal I am confident the pound will gain momentum. Morgan Stanley analyst are of the same opinion, stating “the pound is the most undervalued currency in the world and it will return to pre-brexit levels.
The Euro could be in for a rough year with three general elections with the possibility of far right parties gaining power and the chance of referendums. Add in Greek debt and Italian Bank’s bad loans in excess of €360bn and we could be seeing the Euro in a much worse position later in the year.
Pound to Euro exchange rates have once again fallen owing to the news from the House of Lords that they will be challenging the Brexit bill put forward by the government.
This could delay the triggering of Article 50 and highlights the uncertainty surrounding what is happening and each time an obstacle is put in front of the government this causes the Pound to weaken vs the single currency.
The House of Lords is concerned with the rights of European citizens living and working in the UK and they would like to have a reciprocal arrangement to be agreed in Europe to protect the rights of Britons living in Europe.
The announcement from the House of Lords has come as a surprise to the markets as the expectation was for them to simply agree what the House of Commons had suggested previously.
The foreign exchange market does not react well to uncertainty and this is the reason for the Pound’s demise.
If you have been reading many of my previous articles I have been highlighting the problems being faced for Sterling exchange rates at the moment and until we get some form of clarity the Pound is likely to continue to struggle.
Longer term once the French elections become headline news I think we could see the Euro weaken against the Pound as Marine Le Pen who has already suggested that she may look to bring back the French Franc is currently one of the favourites to win.
Therefore, if you need to buy Euros in the short term it may be worth organising your transfer soon.
Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 I am not only able to offer you bank beating exchange rates but also help you with the timing of your transfer of funds.
If you would like further information or would like a free quote when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.
Tom Holian email@example.com
I expect the pound to Euro rate will both rise and fall in March as we face some interesting developments in the latest political and economic situations in the UK and also Europe. The triggering of Article 50 and the French and Dutch elections will all have a significant bearing on the market where we could see the rates rising and falling according to the prevailing sentiments in the market. If you have a question or query over the markets then making sense of the next few weeks is sensible in my opinion as we seek to establish some base for the future.
The pound could well come under pressure once Article 50 has been triggered which would see the rates falling to potentially 1.2-1.13 at the extreme. The converse argument is that actually, the market is more than likely to rise once Article 50 is triggered since this will give us some certainty over the Brexit and will give us some clarity over just what is around the corner for the UK. If you have a transfer involving the pound or Euro being prepared for this big event is vital to understanding the market and being able to take advantage of any improvements.
The Euro is likely to come under real pressure from the uncertainty relating to the French and Dutch elections which take place on the 15th March (Dutch) and French elections on the 23rd April and 7th May. Most commentators expect the Euro to experience further weakness from these events even if ultimately the likelihood is that neither of the danger candidates actually win.
If you would like more information at no cost or obligation please don’t hesitate to contact me Jonathan by emailing firstname.lastname@example.org.
GBP/EUR rates have fallen during Monday’s trading, with the pair hitting 1.1709 at today’s low.
Sterling has hit something of a glass ceiling over recent days, as it struggles to make a sustained impact towards 1.20 under the current market conditions.
The EUR found support around 1.18 and whilst the single currency also finds itself under pressure due to political and social unrest across the region, the on-going uncertainty surrounding Brexit continues to handicap any major advances for GBP.
The markets have also likely reacted to a report that Scotland seem to be edging closer to a second independence referendum, with many North of the border seemingly keen to remain part of the EU following the UK’s decision to leave.
The House of Lords are still debating the governments Brexit bill and any amendments they wish to make would have to be sent back to the House of Commons. Although we have yet to hear any indication that this will occur, any delay by the House of Lords would likely push back the triggering of Article 50, which will officially start the process of leaving the single member state.
Much of the current market sentiment is being driven by how the UK economy will perform over the coming months. Whilst Sterling has certainly gained a foothold following its downturn, there are still many unanswered questions regarding how we will facilitate our exit from the EU and what deal will be in place once we do?
There has already been some concerning figures mentioned by the European Commissioner, who stated that the UK will be penalised 50 billion for leaving the single market. This is hardly news which is likely to boost investor confidence in the UK economy moving forward, so it’s no real surprise to see Sterling’s recent upturn halted rather abruptly.
Personally I would not be gambling on any major advances for the Pound in the short-term and I would look to protect Sterling’s recent gains.
If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, then we can help you navigate this turbulent market by keeping clients up to speed with all the latest developments regarding Brexit and beyond.
If you would like us to monitor the market for you ahead of a currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me directly on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.
Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on email@example.com.
Pound to Euro rates have fallen towards the end of the week after seeing GBPEUR exchange rates recently hit 6 week highs to buy Euros with Sterling.
The fall began on Wednesday with the release of UK Average Earnings which showed a fall and the drop was exacerbated by Friday’s release of lower than expected UK Retail Sales data.
Retail Sales have now hit a 3 year low and this has supported Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s claims that the UK economy could be negatively affected by last year’s Brexit vote.
The first estimate of fourth quarter UK GDP is due out on Wednesday morning and this will be a key data release to influence what happens next to Sterling vs Euro rates.
GDP has been relatively positive in the previous two quarters but if recent Retail Sales are an indication that things slowed down during the final quarter of 2016 this could cause real problems for the Pound’s outlook against the single currency.
As yet it is still not clear as to when Article 50 will be triggered. Uncertainty is something that currency does not respond well to and until we get some clarity as to what the government’s real plans are to leave the European Union I think Sterling will remain under pressure.
Longer term however I think the outlook for Sterling is positive against the Euro as politically we could be in for numerous changes on the continent as Holland and France are due to go to the polls in the next couple of months.
As we saw in 2016 there appears to be a voice of antiestablishment and a search for a change to the current system and if we see these changes occur in Europe then I expect this to result in longer term Euro weakness.
If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.
Tom Holian firstname.lastname@example.org