Could the Pound break 1.15 against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has been performing well of late against the Euro and has briefly touched 1.15 during March and I expect to see it break past that resistance level during the course of this month.

The EU transitional deal appears to have been agreed and although the Irish border issue still remains unresolved I think we could still see the Pound make further gains against the Euro.

UK Services PMI data is due out at 930am this morning with the expectation for 50.8 so any deviation could cause movement for GBPEUR exchange rates.

Indeed, if the data is positive I think this could see the market break past 1.15 later today.

The political problems in Italy appear to also be holding back the Euro from making any gains vs Sterling. Yesterday, the Eurozone unemployment level dropped to its lowest level in 9 years and with Eurozone inflation rising this could provide support to the European Central Bank to consider ending their QE programme later this year.

In theory this would usually strengthen the single currency but it did not have the expected effect which suggests to me that the political uncertainty in Italy is causing the Euro to wobble.

At the moment the Five Star Movement and the Lega Party have still not yet concluded the talks so Italy remains in a hung parliament which is never a positive for the currency involved.

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Tom Holian


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