Critical 36 hours for GBPEUR exchange rates!

GBPEUR has opened this morning flirting around the 1.15 mark as markets digest events for a crucial couple of days for this pairing. The headline event is of course the UK election which takes place today, results due early tomorrow morning. Today however we have the latest ECB (European Central Bank) meeting which will be closely followed for information relating to any changes in monetary policy from the ECB. All in all I expect the predictions will be correct and GBPEUR will rise as Theresa May secures a much larger majority although I don’t see a landslide.

GBPEUR has slipped down to almost 1.13 in the last week as markets begin to price in the possibility of a Labour win or indeed a hung parliament. With the election taking place at such a crucial time with Brexit running in the background markets are being careful to not be caught out. Markets were surprised by the Trump and Brexit votes of last year which saw big swings on exchange rates, this time investors are being very careful about placing too high an expectation on any particular outcome.

Overall nothing can be taken too much for granted as historically the Conservative vote has been largely underestimated in the polls, this was true following the 2010 and 2015 election so may well see Theresa May winning more the the polls indicate. I expect GBPEUR would fall down to say 1.12 on a hung parliament, 1.10 on a Corbyn victory and 1.16-1.17 on a majority of 50-80. Anything above 80 would probably lead to rates approaching the very high teens, should May match Thatcher’s landslide of 144 then I think 1.20 could be on the cards.

If you have a transfer to make making some plans around these important events is I believe crucial to getting the best deal and not missing out. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

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