GBP/EUR – When shall I move? (Daniel Johnson)

Why will GBP/EUR not breach 1.15 and remain above 1.15?

Sterling has made significant improvements against the majority of major currencies of late. Breaking resistance points against both the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar, 1.80 and 1.40 respectively. Against the Euro however it only breached the key resistance point of 1.15 for a very short period.

1.15 has been the absolute peak of the market, this level only being breached on a few occasions and every time it quickly retracts. I have been saying for months that if you have to move short term trade if the market sits in the 1.14s.

There has been several catalyst for Sterling’s recent improvement. We have seen retail sales figures come in well above expectations. Previous readings came in at – 0.2% and the prediction was a rise to 0.4%. They landed at 0.8% for February.

We also saw average wage growth move much closer to parity with inflation, which is a true sign of a healthy economy. An interest rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) was already highly probable in May, but this may force the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) hand.

It was also announced that the UK would have access to single market during the Brexit transitional period, which is very good news indeed.

If ever there was a reasoning of late for GBP/EUR to break 1.15 and stay above 1.15 these were it. What gives me worries is that it didn’t.  I think it means we are going to have to have some pretty significant news to do so. Perhaps this could come in the form of news on the Irish border situation. which is at present a major point of contention in Brexit negotiations.

Personally, I am still of the opinion if you have to move short term do so in the 1.14s.

If you have a currency requirement I would b happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

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