GBPEUR bounces back but for how long?

The pound has bounced back against the Euro today largely because of the swing on EURUSD as investor concerns over the US dollar fade. EURUSD has risen to almost 1.21 yesterday but it is now back to 1.19 representing a series of profit taking and market fluctuation which has presented some improved levels for Euro buyers. Tomorrow is a very busy day for the Euro with all important Unemployment and Inflation data due out. The pound could find further form against the Euro in my opinion, not because of any fundamental reasons, eg news but more positioning as traders look to take profits on existing trades.

Much of the currency market’s movements are to do with speculators who essentially move money to make money. That doesn’t mean one man trading for personal gain at home, but hedge funds, banks, investment companies and pensions funds. Much of their work will be to manage FX positioning, essentially trying to make money from the market in a speculative manner. This will account for a large degree of the movement on the currency market so trying to understand this thinking helps explain the movements.

With GBPEUR having moved down below 1.10 it will find it increasingly difficult to rise above 1.10 and we could now struggle to see rates rise back above 1.10. What might be more likely is the market and speculators trying to push the level down to parity. If you need to buy Euros with pounds you could easily find this gets more expensive over the long run. However tomorrow or at present could offer a good short term opportunity.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

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