Tag Archives: best exchange rates

All eyes on Inflation figures this morning (Joseph Wright)

This morning could be important for Sterling exchange rates, not just this morning but moving forward as analysts are expecting to see UK inflation levels hit a 5-year high.

The weakening of the Pound since the Brexit vote has pushed up the rate of inflation in the UK, and for a while now the inflation level has been well above the Bank of England’s 2% target. Many analysts in the city are expecting to see the rate hit 3% for September, and if this happens there is a high chance that the Bank of England may look to hike interest rates for the first time in over 10 years.

A 3% inflation level would be a 5-year high and the governor of the Bank of England has hinted at hiking rates as soon as next month.

A high reading this morning would likely result in Sterling strength as the markets would expect to see a rate hike from the BoE, and at the same time if the inflation level is lower than expectations, I think there’s a chance the Pound would fall.

Mark Carney will also be speaking later this morning as he testifies to MP’s on the Treasury this morning. It will be interesting to see whether he discusses inflation and potential rate hikes and if he does it will be interesting to see how the Pound reacts.

Aside from today’s busy morning this Thursday could also be busy as Retail Sales data will be released which could impact Sterling depending on how the figures perform.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

What can we expect next on GBPEUR?

GBPEUR has risen as the pound strengthens on the back of increased expectation that the Bank of England will soon raise interest rates in the UK Investors are betting that this will happen and this will see the pound stronger in the future. If you have a future requirement to buy or sell Euros against pounds the coming weeks will be crucial to how the future direction on rates shape up.

As mentioned the Bank of England is talking about raising interest rates which could happen as early as 2nd November. If this is the case then the pound should rise since there is growing speculation that this will be the case. Ultimately I feel the expectation is too high and the Bank of England will be very cautious, the propensity for a volatile pound is high.

The Euro is looking very strong but it is weaker from the recent highs owing to the news regarding the German election. Angela Merkel’s diminished position has seen the Euro weaker, there is also key economic news to be concerned with too. So for example the latest ECB decision where we might learn of any tapering of their QE program could see a volatile period on the Euro.

Ultimately I expect the Euro to remain stronger against the pound since it is highly likely the uncertainty over Brexit will continue to be a weight around the neck of the pound. Therefore if buying Euros with pound moving sooner on any uncertainty is the best way forward to avoid the risk of losses.

Thank you for reading and for any further information regarding the best rates of exchange buying and selling Euros please do contact me by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound to Euro rate drops as UK Construction sector contracts, will today’s data push the Pound lower? (Joseph Wright)

Despite issues within the Eurozone at the moment such as the Catalonian independence referendum, the Pound fell against the Euro yesterday after Sterling weakness outweighed Euro weakness.

The past week has yielded some negative data for the Pound which has seen it dip from its highs last month of 1.14. Revised yearly GDP figures were revised downward to 1.5% from the previous figure of 1.7%, mortgage approvals were down by 3000, manufacturing in the UK dropped slightly and UK construction figures dropped quite heavily yesterday.

Today’s data release covers the services sector within the UK which is arguably the more important release as the services sector covers around three-quarters of the UK economy and therefore the figure tends to be watched very closely.

Aside from today’s data release a member of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane will be giving a speech later this week which could cause further movements between the GBP/EUR rate if any hints at future monetary policy are given, especially after talk of an interest rate hike from the BoE has begun to heat up in recent weeks.

The situation in Catalonia looks set to continue which I think could push the Euro lower, so it will be interesting to see if the Pound will recover back to its August highs if the data out of the UK turns more positive.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Will GBPEUR keep rising?

The pound has risen to fresh 3 month highs against the Euro as we get closer to understanding when the Bank of England might raise interest rates. Overall there is a much stronger belief that the Euro will rise after the German election but of course there are no guarantees as to what will ultimately happen down the line. It would not be surprising to see this rally for the pound carry on but of course the German election will be a thorn in the side of Euro buyers next week.

The actual election is on the 24th September but that is a Sunday so Friday next week and Monday will be the main days we will see movement on the currency markets. Therefore if you have a transfer to buy or sell Euros for pounds making some plans around the upcoming events is sensible, I am sure if you need to buy Euros and you see the rate go back down to 1.10 you would be most disappointed!

The pending German election could be a good opportunity for any Euro sellers who failed to capitalise on the improvements we saw two weeks ago to recoup some losses. However overall I would not be surprised to see the pound much stronger overall owing to the outcome from yesterday’s Bank of England meeting.

If you have a transfer to make soon or even in the coming weeks then making some plans around this latest twist on the market is I believe very sensible. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you in the future.

Sterling rallys against the Euro following Interest rate decision (Daniel Johnson)

Is Sterling’s advance warranted?

Today saw the UK interest rate decision. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) consist of nine members who vote on whether there should be a change in rates. Today’s vote came in at 7-2 in favor of keeping rates on hold. It was the speech after the event that caused sterling to gain strength.

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England (BOE)  spoke following the discussion and stated the BOE may need to adjust interest rates in the coming months. In my opinion this is jawboning, talking up the value of the currency  as apposed to making an actual change to monetary policy, let us not forget the vote was 7-2 to keep rates on hold.

They are justifying a potential hike on the rise in inflation to 2.9%. Inflation is only a positive to an economy if average wage growth is increasing at a similar pace. Wage growth fell to 2.1%, something the BOE have seemingly swept under the carpet. I believe a rate hike is not the solution to the inflation problem. Brexit is the reason for the weak value of the pound and in turn the rise in inflation due to the increase in cost of exports, a solution to the problem would be clarity on Brexit and the pound will rally with out monetary policy action.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

 

GBP/EUR Back Under 1.09 (Ben Fletcher)

This afternoon the GBP/EUR rate had one of its most volatile days in months. The European Central Bank provided their latest interest rate decision which as expected saw the rate remain at 0%. However in the statement afterwards President Mario Draghi’s speech caused major volatility, significantly helping the Euro find support against Sterling and the US Dollar. Draghi did stay fairly close to the expected narrative saying that there could changes to economic policy, however they’re there just yet. One consideration for the future that Draghi raised was continuous Euro strength culd we have consequences in the short term

The cost of exports will increase with the currency and may encourage importers from other regions to look elsewhere for goods. This will eventually have an effect on the Eurozone economy and potentially could cause inflation to slow down. Whilst there isn’t expected to be a interest rate hike in the EU for a considerable time, a decrease in inflation would be incredibly detrimental especially considering the amount of stimulus that has gone into forcing a rise.

The Euro strength may continue and unless Sterling gains some support in positive Brexit talks the market isn’t likely to move much in my opinion. However if the Euro weakens and the Brexit talks do stat to slowly find some resolve then we may not be far to breaking back through the 1.10 level.

If you do have a upcoming currency requirement and would like to discuss what might be the best option, please send me an email to Ben at brf@currencies.co.uk. The currency markets are always moving and timing a transfer can help make sure you achieve the most for your funds. Working at a brokerage I am able to help you achieve the best rates of exchange and set alerts to make sure you capitalise on any movements on your favour.

Services PMI causes Sterling spike against the Euro (Daniel Johnson)

Eurozone PMI data arrives below expectations

Services Purchase Mangers Index (PMI) was released yesterday in the UK and the Eurozone. Services PMI is a measure of health in the sector and can move markets. The UK saw a fall of 0.3% and saw a slight rise in German data by 0.1%. Italian PMI came in 0.4% down and French PMI was also down by 0.6%. This caused GBP/EUR to move above 1.09, the best levels for Euro buyers for over two weeks.

I am of the opinion this could be a small window of opportunity. Citibank, J.P Morgan, Morgan Stanley and HSBC are all predicting parity on GBP/EUR by the end of the year. Sterling is going to find it particularly hard to make any significant gains due to political uncertainty and a lack of clarity on Brexit.

Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question. With a growing number of conservatives pushing forward a vote of no confidence in Theresa May the pound stays anchored below 1.10. Until we have a stable government the pound stands little chance of a sustained rally.

There needs to be clarity on the UK’s stance on Brexit. The white paper documents that are being released are not addressing the main points on immigration and trade. In the currency market no news is worse than bad news. These points need to be addressed if investors are to regain confidence in the UK economy.

Could we see QE tapering from the ECB?

With sustained growth geographically and in the majority of business sectors in the Eurozone there has been talk of tapering Quantitative Easing (QE) from the European Central Bank (ECB). QE is pumping money into an economy to stimulate growth. The ECB are currently injecting €60bn a month, if this is reduced to €40bn we could see GBP/EUR fall below 1.05. This may not be a wise move as if the Euro becomes too strong it could hinder exports and damage the Eurozone economy.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

UK Services data released this morning likely to drive GBP/EUR today, what other data should be watched closely? (Joseph Wright)

This morning the most important sector for the UK economy will be under the spotlight as Services PMI data is scheduled for release.

The figure will be released at 9.30am and it will cover business sentiment in the sector, which is particularly important for the UK economy as the services sector covers around 80% of the UK economy. Whether this figure impresses or not is likely to move the Pound to Euro exchange rate due to its importance, and those following the GBP to EUR exchange rate should kind in mind that the manufacturing and construction figures released over the past couple of days have been mixed which has resulted in a mixed performance for the Pound.

The services sector figure has higher potential to result in price movement and the figure expected for releases is 53.5 so this is the figure to look out for.

We’re able to provide our clients with guidance regarding the news releases and expected figures that could potentially impact their currency transaction requirement. If you would like to be kep updated regarding the markets do feel free to register your interest with me and I’ll be happy to discuss it with you.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Can GBP/EUR Recover Yesterdays Losses Anytime Soon? (Ben Fletcher)

Yesterday the GBP/EUR rate dropped to 1.081 which is the lowest level in over 8 years. Over the past 3 weeks there has been a continuous weakening of Sterling and this has culminated in the rate reaching record lows. The big question now remains is will the rate continue to fall or rise?

The basic argument would be that there is likely to be further weakness simply as the trend looks set to continue. The Eurozone is showing increasing strength through strong data and this isn’t showing signs of changing anytime soon. Secondly there are current expectations that the European Central Bank’s economic stimulus could be close to being reduced, showing further confidence in the economy. Tomorrow the Head of the ECB Mario Draghi will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium in the US and this should provide further insight into the central banks position.

From a Sterling perspective the Brexit uncertainty could have finally caught up with investors. Whilst the Government are looking to release economic white papers to provide clarity on their position, there is no solid results coming from the Brexit talks. One potential avenue for Sterling against the Euro could be some concerns that the GBP/EUR rate is dropping to low. The Eurozone could start to see a reduction in exports if the price of goods increase to much with the current rate. We therefore may see Mario Draghi or other ECB members try to talk down the currency by holding off any economic changes.

If you do have a question with regards to my forecast please get in touch. When you come to moving large sums of money a movement of a cent can often relate to a significant difference in your returns. Helping you formulate a strategy could make sure you’re in the best position to exchange currency when the market is in your favor, please contact me at brf@currencies.co.uk

Pound to Euro rate in focus as it’s trading at an 8-year low, will the sell-off continue? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling is continuing to come under pressure this morning after breaching the 1.09 mark during yesterday’s trading session.

The breach of 1.09 has continued this morning as the pair are now trading at their lowest levels since 2009, with 1.0868 the lowest level the pair have hit so far.

This comes at a time where risk appetite worldwide is on the decline after US President Donald Trump’s threat to end the NAFTA agreement and shut down the US government if he doesn’t receive funding for the wall he plans on building along the boarder of Mexico.

There have also been a number of forecasts from major financial institutions recently suggesting the Pound could fall as low as 1 for 1 with the Euro, with HSBC, Morgan Stanley and Citi all making this same prediction for the pair in 2018.

Should these predictions comes true then it may be worth looking into the current exchange rates if you’re planning a large GBP to EUR transfer as there is still some distance to go should they be correct.

Tomorrow at 9.30am there will be the release of UK GDP data for the month of July, and there could be movement between GBP/EUR if this figure is released some distance from its expectation.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPEUR rise hit parity?

I do not believe the pound can fall below parity but we might learn the coming weeks and months about just how likely it is. With the trends that seem in motion at present the outlook for the pound remains very bleak and the outlook for the Euro appears very positive. The Euro is beating the pound on many fronts most notably in the political stakes but also the economic ones too. In fact if you are looking to see the pound rise against the Euro I think you are really struggling to gauge just where any good news will come from!

Most likely for the pound could of course be the prospect of some good news for Brexit, but the Euro might weaken too. The thing with Brexit is that the likelihood of any good news seems quite far off in the distance. In fact there might not be any good news for many years to give investors reasons to start backing the pound. The problem is too that with the Brexit, all the whilst we await further news on what is will actually mean, the UK economy suffers, so does the pound and so does life for Euro buyers with pounds.

Consumers in the UK initially reacting on a wave of optimism to Brexit are now gently beginning to come to terms with the complexities. The seemingly free money racked up on loans for cars, shopping and entertaining themselves won’t just be available forever. Consumer spending has slowed as has business confidence. This is all weighing on the pound and with the German election in September seeming to point towards a Merkel victory, further Euro strength could be up ahead. Parity might not be precisely on the cards but lower rates than today seem likely!

If you have a transfer buying or selling the pound and Euro then making plans around the latest sentiments is key to avoiding unforeseen extra costs. If you wish to get the latest news and information on the market and your situation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for getting in touch and I look forward to hearing from you.

Eurozone Inflation To Cause Volatility (Ben Fletcher)

This morning the latest Inflation data will be released for the Eurozone which should provide an indication as to what the European Central Bank will decide to do in the next few weeks. Many analysts at the moment believe the ECB will start to reduce the amount of economic stimulus as early as September however if the EU economic data is not strong then that’s less likely to happen.

The Euro has been putting significant pressure under Sterling with many investors choosing to back the single markets major currency. There has been considerable growth across the EU with output data at one of its highest in years and future confidence soaring. Most of this strength has come from France and Germany but there also appears to be optimism that the Greek and Italian economies will this year grow.

There is still the small issue of multi-billions worth of bailout funds and it seems incredibly unlikely that those funds will ever be paid back. The Greek pension fund has already been completely raided and the higher tax bracket is considerably over 60%, which makes you think if the economy doesn’t start to grow there is nothing more to give and no more room for squeezing.

Today with the general downward movement of the GBP/EUR I would not be surprised to see the 1.09 level tested.

I am in a position to help you execute a transfer and I am confident I can offer you the best rates. Therefore if you do have a question with regards to my forecast please get in touch. When it comes to moving large sums of money a movement of a cent can often relate to a significant difference in your returns. Helping you formulate a strategy could make sure you’re in the best position to exchange currency when the market is in your favor, please contact me Ben Fletcher at brf@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Short Term Forecast – Will Sterling Strengthen? (Ben Fletcher)

Sterling has been under continuous pressure these past few months presenting the opportunity for people to sell Euros back at some of the best levels in 9 months. Each week the range in which the GBP/EUR rate resides at has fallen nearly a cent suggesting there is more potential for the rate to continue to fall. If you have been waiting to sell Euros back to Pounds and are still holding on, the next month might be the best time.

German Election

At the end of September Germany will head to the polls in what is thought to be a non-event to re-elect current Chancellor Angela Merkel. Whilst Merkel is the major favourite there has been some surprising events that have taken place around the globe in the past year and anything unexpected could create Euro weakness. At the moment there doesn’t really appear to be any major rivals and the concern that Nationalist parties were coming back seems to have died down. Merkel was heavily criticised by many in her own country for welcoming 1 million refugees, however in the light of no other viable leaders her tenure looks set to continue.

From the perspective of the GBP/EUR rate, over the next month we may see some Euro weakness start to creep in due to election uncertainty. But by that point the GBP/EUR may be close to moving below the 1.10 level, which in my opinion would be a best case scenario for Euro sellers.

If you have a upcoming requirement you would like to discuss or ask any questions about the comments please send me an email briefly explaining your requirement at brf@currencies.co.uk. I would be more than happy to share my thoughts and try to help you develop a plan that will enable you to maximise your transfer. I will aim to respond within a few hours.

What next for GBPEUR rates?

Overall the belief on the GBPEUR rate is that it will now continue to ebb lower and lower as the uncertainty over the UK’s political and economic outlook is overshadowed by much improved economic data and also political certainty in the Eurozone. Those who predicted the demise of the Euro and the Eurozone a few years ago are now facing some serious questions as the outlook for the Eurozone continues to improve. If you are selling Euros the likelihood of further improvements cannot be ruled out. The extra 2 cents gained for Euro sellers this week is an extra £1500 in your pocket per €100,000 transferred. If you wish to learn more about rate movements and how much you could save please contact me jmw@currencies.co.uk.

If you have a transfer to make buying or selling the pound and Euro the current trend is looking likely to favour the Euro but there could be surprises on the way. For example Mario Draghi was actually quite ‘dovish’ or soft in his comments yesterday during the European Central Bank (ECB) Press Conference. Nevertheless the Euro rallied essentially as Mario revealed there are plans to taper their bond buying purchases in the future.

This strengthened the Euro but Mario didn’t actually reveal too much on timings, that means that the market might actually have overreacted to his comments. This can often be the case on markets so Euro strength is neither guaranteed or assured. However looking at the overall picture and particularly against a weaker pound a further decline in the GBPEUR rate looks to me likely.

If you have a transfer buying or selling Euros we are here to help with the planning and execution of any transactions for the future. We can help with the forecasting and devising of strategies to help you maximise the transaction. Thank you for reading and please contact me if you would like to discuss anything further by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

UK Data and Carney to Dictate GBP/EUR (Ben Fletcher)

This we will see a whole flurry of UK data including the Producer Price Index along with the latest Consumer Price Index. The CPI data which currently sits at 2.9% compared to this time last year, is a key indicator of inflation levels. If this level moves above 3%, which it isn’t expected to however the recent climb would suggest other wise, he market could move. If inflation continues to rise faster than average earnings consumers will start to feel the pinch, however the Bank of England could have a solution.

Governor of the Bank of England is expected to deliver a speech just after lunchtime today discussing his latest thoughts on the UK economy. The big question for investors at the moment is the potential of a UK interest rate hike in the short term. The Bank of England can encourage people to stop spending by raising interest rates, alternatively if people start to save more that has consequences on retail as a whole.

There is a very fine balance with so much uncertainty surrounding namely Brexit. Whilst the data and speeches are happening in the UK, David Davis along with his Brexit negotiations team are sat around a table with the EU team. We’re not likely to see any outcomes to the talks in round two of discussions, but we may receive news that the talks are going well and any concessions for Sterling will be seen as positive.

When the markets are this volatile there will always be spikes and drops, making timing a transfer vital to maximise your funds. If you have any questions with my forecast above or would like to simply discuss an upcoming requirement you have please send me an email to brf@currencies.co.uk. I would be happy to share my thoughts with you and I may be able to offer a viable solution to help you complete a trade, as I have several years experience working for a brokerage

What can we expect next for GBPEUR exchange rates?

What is the likelihood of GBPEUR rate rising much higher is a very common question I am being lately. Trying to second guess the market and hoping for big improvements often leads only to disappointment when expecting a certain outcome. The pound against the Euro is in a very volatile situation at the moment which could easily see the rates quickly and unexpectedly changing, keeping up to date with the developments is a crucial factor to ensuring you maximise the transfer.

This week we have a number of important data releases which will be crucial to determining the next steps on the currency pairing. Overall I expect the market to favour sterling weakness but much of this has been built in to the current rates and therefore we will need some fresh new bad news so clients looking to buy sterling need to be careful holding back just waiting for rates to improve.

We aim to offer clients a clear forecast of current evens and work proactively to help determine the very best times to trade and buy currency. If you have a transfer to consider then understanding the coming news and information is critical to getting the best deals. For more information at no cost or obligation on what to look out for in the coming weeks to help you get the best deal please do feel free to contact me directly by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Tomorrow is UK Inflation and then Thursday is the latest European Central Bank Interest Rate decision, these are big events and trading them properly and understanding the outcomes could potentially save you hundred or thousands depending on the outcomes.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and working with you to achieve the maximum for your transfer.

 

GBP/EUR Back Above 1.14 (Ben Fletcher)

Sterling’s positive end to the week continued all the way to the close of business this evening as the GBP/EUR rate shot up to a high of 1.143. This has come as a considerable surprise following the fall to 1.118 on Wednesday, which convinced many further losses were on there way. Now that there has been a resurgence in the rate, the rise to 1.15 is a hot topic. The last time the rate reached that level was 6 weeks ago and that was only available for a few hours.

There is still a considerable amount of uncertainty surrounding Sterling, especially as the Great Repeal Bill is to be released shortly and every opposing party to the Government plans to challenge their plans. However some of the major concerns appear to have taken a slight back seat and at least for the last 48 hours no new negative headlines have appeared. It’s thought that earlier in the week Sterling was oversold as markets became over pessimistic on the UK conditions, with that in mind the recent jump is just making up lost ground.

GBP/EUR, where to next?

Now that we have seen favorable Sterling the movement the next step will be a jump above 1.15. This week we saw members of the Bank of England talk down a interest rate hike in the near future which was the main cause of the GBP/EUR rate dropping over a percent. Arguably if there was to be talk of a hike, that percent may return which would see a jump to the 1.15’s.

If you have any questions with regards to my forecast above please don’t hesitate to contact me. I would be more than happy to discuss your requirement and provide a strategy that will work for your unique needs. I may also be able to offer a potential method of completing the transfer. Please send me a brief description of what you’re looking to do at brf@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP/EUR, Calm Before the Storm? (Ben Fletcher)

Yesterday the GBP/EUR rate hardly moved half a cent across the whole of the day with very little changing in the market. Until the drop on Friday due to poor economic data for the UK, the rate had spent most of the week hovering around the 1.14 mark. This morning the rate is back above 1.13 and in my opinion there could be a opportunity for the rate to lift a little today.

MPC Members Speak Today

Two of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members will speak today Andy Haldane and Dr Ben Broadbent. The MPC are thought to be investigating whether a interest rate hike would be beneficial for the UK in the short term future. The two committee members who vote with the other 7 will provide their insights, if they’re hawkish and suggest a hike may happen that could provide market optimism boosting Sterling. Alternatively Andy Haldane is returning for his second stint on the MPC and was previously known for his Dovish attitude. There is of course every chance this is a non-event, but with little positivity around for Sterling any spikes in the market should be capitalised on.

In my opinion over the course of the next few weeks the GBP/EUR rate may move back towards the 1.14 but I find it hard to see anything much more substantial happening. The second round of Brexit talks will begin next week and we may get some further updates into how they’re progressing. However Theresa May is coming under so much pressure in the UK, even as much so that MP’s are calling for her resignation. If May was to resign then another general election would only add to further uncertainty and the GBP/EUR rate may drop below 1.10.

If you would like to ask me any further questions with regards to my forecast, please feel free to send me an email to brf@currencies.co.uk. If you send me a brief description of what you’re looking to achieve, I will respond within a few hours. Hopefully I can assist with devising a strategy to help you achieve your goal and potentially help execute the trade.

Where next for the GBPEUR exchange rate?

When looking for indications as to the future direction of GBPEUR exchange rates it can be helpful to consult the information of a currency specialist who can highlight the important trends and themes that will move the market. A 1 cent improvement selling €100,000 at current levels would result in a £800 saving! We offer assistance to clients looking to increase the value of their currency exchange by offering information on the market to help them time and execute their transfer for maximium effect.

If you are looking to buy or sell Euros for pounds then the last month has see a fairly choppy range developing in a tight band of 2 cents. Whilst we haven’t broken free of the 1.1260 to 1.1470 range, the movement within these parameters has been rather unpredictable with the market jumping back and forth according to speculation on various factors.

One key point to be noting is the prospect of a UK interest rate hike or the European Central Bank (ECB) considering to withdraw their economic stimulus. These two factors are example of two highly unpredictable factors which could see the pound rising or falling against the Euro rather suddenly.

With tremendous pressure on sterling and there appearing to be no easy way out of the current situation for the pound and the UK, GBPEUR seems like it could easily spend much of the coming weeks and months in a 1.10-1.15 range. It is very difficult to see what would lead to sterling rise dramatically but there could be surprises.

If you need to make a transfer of more than £10,000 worth buying or selling Euros then understanding the best steps forward in advance will give you the greatest chance of securing the best rate. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk or please call 01494 787 478.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

GBP/EUR – Where Next? (Daniel Johnson)

Sterling struggles against the Euro

We have seen gains for Sterling against most major currency pairings  following a government being appointed in the UK. The euro however is proving to be stubborn, with a resistance point at 1.14. I think there will need to be a significant catalyst for GBP/EUR to breach 1.14 and remain above it.

Over the last decade Eurozone positive data has been sporadic and has held back The European Central Bank (ECB) from tapering Quantitative Easing (QE). We have recently however seen positive data more widely spread both geographically and in industry sectors. This is good news for Draghi and could mean we could see tapering sooner rather than later. If this does occur I would expect a sharp rise in Euro strength.

It is not all good news in the Eurozone however, let us not forget Greece, struggling to make debt repayments to the IMF. The debt is so great it seems impossible to imagine a stable Greek economy. If this problem comes in to the lime light this could hinder any Euro advance.

I am of the opinion Sterling is chronically undervalued, before the referendum announcement GBP/EUR sat above 1.40. I think short to medium term it will be tough time for the pound. I think once we have a more stable government and the Brexit stance is clear the pound will have the opportunity to rally. Although leave voters will not be happy, it may be the wise move to  compromise on immigration in order to have market access. This would almost certainly cause a spike in Sterling value. It is a shame we are in this position, it seems the whole reason the UK is in tatters is due to politicians pursuing their own agenda.

The Monetary Policy Commitee (MPC) recently voted on a change an interest rate and there was change in stance with 3 members voting in favour of a hike.  I believe this is not a solution to the rapid rise in inflation. The Bank of England are trying to fight a problem with the wrong tools. Many believe rate hikes drop and fall usually by 0.25%. This is not gospel and rates may move by as little as 0.5%. If there is a change in rates I would expect this to be the choice which would not have a huge impact Sterling value.

If you have a large currency transfer to perform in the coming days, weeks or months then I will be happy to speak to you directly as I will be willing to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the best possible rate when you do come to trade. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a significant difference so for the sake of taking a few minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can contact me (Daniel Johnson) on dcj@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavor to get back to you as quickly as possible. Thank you for reading.