Tag Archives: best UK exchange rates

Eurozone Inflation To Cause Volatility (Ben Fletcher)

This morning the latest Inflation data will be released for the Eurozone which should provide an indication as to what the European Central Bank will decide to do in the next few weeks. Many analysts at the moment believe the ECB will start to reduce the amount of economic stimulus as early as September however if the EU economic data is not strong then that’s less likely to happen.

The Euro has been putting significant pressure under Sterling with many investors choosing to back the single markets major currency. There has been considerable growth across the EU with output data at one of its highest in years and future confidence soaring. Most of this strength has come from France and Germany but there also appears to be optimism that the Greek and Italian economies will this year grow.

There is still the small issue of multi-billions worth of bailout funds and it seems incredibly unlikely that those funds will ever be paid back. The Greek pension fund has already been completely raided and the higher tax bracket is considerably over 60%, which makes you think if the economy doesn’t start to grow there is nothing more to give and no more room for squeezing.

Today with the general downward movement of the GBP/EUR I would not be surprised to see the 1.09 level tested.

I am in a position to help you execute a transfer and I am confident I can offer you the best rates. Therefore if you do have a question with regards to my forecast please get in touch. When it comes to moving large sums of money a movement of a cent can often relate to a significant difference in your returns. Helping you formulate a strategy could make sure you’re in the best position to exchange currency when the market is in your favor, please contact me Ben Fletcher at brf@currencies.co.uk

The number of GBP to EUR parity forecasts increases, will GBP/EUR hit 1.1 by the end of the year? (Joseph Wright)

The talk of Brexit negotiations beginning badly is having an impact on the Pounds value against all major currency pairs, but it appears that the GBP/EUR rate has been the biggest loser in all of this so far.

Recent comments from David Davis, the Brexit secretary have added fuel to the fire after he revealed that Michel Barnier ‘is getting quite cross with us’. Michel Barnier is the EU’s chief negotiator which just goes to show that the UK going to need to get a move on regarding its Brexit negotiation plans.

With there being less likelihood of an interest rate hike this year from the Bank of England now that inflation pressures have subsided there have been a number of major financial institutions forecasting parity between the Pound and the Euro in 2018.

In just the last week, Morgan Stanley, HSBC and now City Index have all made this prediction which gives those planning on making a large GBP to EUR transfer a decision to make as the rate is currently just below 1.10.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding the Pound to Euros price movements do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPEUR slip below 1.10?

Dismissed as no longer a likely exchange rate the GBPEUR rate has been very close to the 1.10 level as investors take positions on the Euro which represents a much more secure currency versus the GBP and USD. The Euro has risen to a 2 1/2 year high against the US dollar and is currently enjoying close to a 9 month high against the pound. The outlook for the pound and Euro is such that it would not be at all surprising to see GBPEUR below 1.10 very soon. If you have a transfer buying or selling the pound and Euro making plans around this possible scenario is I believe very much recommended.

If you look at what is driving the pound it is obviously the uncertainty over the Brexit and the economic decline this has caused. More recently the pound had been higher on the prospects of the Bank of England raising interest rates but this is not materialising. Last week Inflation dropped leading to the pound dropping as this effectively rules out any UK interest rate hike in 2017 or maybe further.

There are no guarantees over an interest rate hike for the UK in the future and it is a dangerous gamble for clients buying Euros to be holding back from a purchase just hoping that rates will rise in their favour. Most clients looking to buy Euros should be preparing for further losses as this could easily fall lower.

The Euro is much stronger as politics and economic supports the Eurozone. Expectations on GBPEUR could easily the rate below 1.10, if you have a transfer to make buying or selling Euros for pounds making some plans in advance is wise. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

UK Data and Carney to Dictate GBP/EUR (Ben Fletcher)

This we will see a whole flurry of UK data including the Producer Price Index along with the latest Consumer Price Index. The CPI data which currently sits at 2.9% compared to this time last year, is a key indicator of inflation levels. If this level moves above 3%, which it isn’t expected to however the recent climb would suggest other wise, he market could move. If inflation continues to rise faster than average earnings consumers will start to feel the pinch, however the Bank of England could have a solution.

Governor of the Bank of England is expected to deliver a speech just after lunchtime today discussing his latest thoughts on the UK economy. The big question for investors at the moment is the potential of a UK interest rate hike in the short term. The Bank of England can encourage people to stop spending by raising interest rates, alternatively if people start to save more that has consequences on retail as a whole.

There is a very fine balance with so much uncertainty surrounding namely Brexit. Whilst the data and speeches are happening in the UK, David Davis along with his Brexit negotiations team are sat around a table with the EU team. We’re not likely to see any outcomes to the talks in round two of discussions, but we may receive news that the talks are going well and any concessions for Sterling will be seen as positive.

When the markets are this volatile there will always be spikes and drops, making timing a transfer vital to maximise your funds. If you have any questions with my forecast above or would like to simply discuss an upcoming requirement you have please send me an email to brf@currencies.co.uk. I would be happy to share my thoughts with you and I may be able to offer a viable solution to help you complete a trade, as I have several years experience working for a brokerage

GBP/EUR Back Above 1.14 (Ben Fletcher)

Sterling’s positive end to the week continued all the way to the close of business this evening as the GBP/EUR rate shot up to a high of 1.143. This has come as a considerable surprise following the fall to 1.118 on Wednesday, which convinced many further losses were on there way. Now that there has been a resurgence in the rate, the rise to 1.15 is a hot topic. The last time the rate reached that level was 6 weeks ago and that was only available for a few hours.

There is still a considerable amount of uncertainty surrounding Sterling, especially as the Great Repeal Bill is to be released shortly and every opposing party to the Government plans to challenge their plans. However some of the major concerns appear to have taken a slight back seat and at least for the last 48 hours no new negative headlines have appeared. It’s thought that earlier in the week Sterling was oversold as markets became over pessimistic on the UK conditions, with that in mind the recent jump is just making up lost ground.

GBP/EUR, where to next?

Now that we have seen favorable Sterling the movement the next step will be a jump above 1.15. This week we saw members of the Bank of England talk down a interest rate hike in the near future which was the main cause of the GBP/EUR rate dropping over a percent. Arguably if there was to be talk of a hike, that percent may return which would see a jump to the 1.15’s.

If you have any questions with regards to my forecast above please don’t hesitate to contact me. I would be more than happy to discuss your requirement and provide a strategy that will work for your unique needs. I may also be able to offer a potential method of completing the transfer. Please send me a brief description of what you’re looking to do at brf@currencies.co.uk

 

Where next for the GBPEUR exchange rate?

When looking for indications as to the future direction of GBPEUR exchange rates it can be helpful to consult the information of a currency specialist who can highlight the important trends and themes that will move the market. A 1 cent improvement selling €100,000 at current levels would result in a £800 saving! We offer assistance to clients looking to increase the value of their currency exchange by offering information on the market to help them time and execute their transfer for maximium effect.

If you are looking to buy or sell Euros for pounds then the last month has see a fairly choppy range developing in a tight band of 2 cents. Whilst we haven’t broken free of the 1.1260 to 1.1470 range, the movement within these parameters has been rather unpredictable with the market jumping back and forth according to speculation on various factors.

One key point to be noting is the prospect of a UK interest rate hike or the European Central Bank (ECB) considering to withdraw their economic stimulus. These two factors are example of two highly unpredictable factors which could see the pound rising or falling against the Euro rather suddenly.

With tremendous pressure on sterling and there appearing to be no easy way out of the current situation for the pound and the UK, GBPEUR seems like it could easily spend much of the coming weeks and months in a 1.10-1.15 range. It is very difficult to see what would lead to sterling rise dramatically but there could be surprises.

If you need to make a transfer of more than £10,000 worth buying or selling Euros then understanding the best steps forward in advance will give you the greatest chance of securing the best rate. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk or please call 01494 787 478.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

GBP/EUR Rate Close to 1.15 Jump (Ben Fletcher)

The Sterling Euro rate could be on the verge of a positive upwards movement as a several week high is touched upon this morning. The rate moved up to 1.142 which provided optimism there could be more to come.

Governor of the Bank for England Mark Carney will speak tomorrow and after his speech last week caused over a cent movement that could happen again.

If you’re looking to purchase Euros then tomorrow may present a window of opportunity for you. If Sterling does start to move upwards then I do think it will be a significant jump. The currency has been oversold in the last few months which is why the rate has dropped so low, but there could be a turn of events coming.

Inflation Report Next Week

The UK’s latest inflation report was expected to be released this week however it has been postponed to next week. Inflation data is a double edged sword at the moment; firstly if it keeps rising and wage growth doesn’t it will feel like a wage cut, alternatively if it does continue to rise the Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates. The home currency when there is a interest rate hike, can often benefit by several percent which could see the rate move back towards the high teens.

If you’re a Euro seller who is waiting to complete a transaction at an even lower level than what is currently available I believe you’re playing a risky game. Sterling seems to have found a resistance at the 1.13 level and would take a serous series of events to fall much lower than this point, never say never but the bottom may have been reached.

Whilst this is quite a speculative plan, but certainly plausible if you do have a more specific requirement please don’t hesitate to ask any questions about the forecast above. I would be more than happy to share my thoughts and discuss what might be the best option for you moving forwards. Please send me an email with a brief description of what you’re looking to do at brf@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP/EUR – Where Next? (Daniel Johnson)

Sterling struggles against the Euro

We have seen gains for Sterling against most major currency pairings  following a government being appointed in the UK. The euro however is proving to be stubborn, with a resistance point at 1.14. I think there will need to be a significant catalyst for GBP/EUR to breach 1.14 and remain above it.

Over the last decade Eurozone positive data has been sporadic and has held back The European Central Bank (ECB) from tapering Quantitative Easing (QE). We have recently however seen positive data more widely spread both geographically and in industry sectors. This is good news for Draghi and could mean we could see tapering sooner rather than later. If this does occur I would expect a sharp rise in Euro strength.

It is not all good news in the Eurozone however, let us not forget Greece, struggling to make debt repayments to the IMF. The debt is so great it seems impossible to imagine a stable Greek economy. If this problem comes in to the lime light this could hinder any Euro advance.

I am of the opinion Sterling is chronically undervalued, before the referendum announcement GBP/EUR sat above 1.40. I think short to medium term it will be tough time for the pound. I think once we have a more stable government and the Brexit stance is clear the pound will have the opportunity to rally. Although leave voters will not be happy, it may be the wise move to  compromise on immigration in order to have market access. This would almost certainly cause a spike in Sterling value. It is a shame we are in this position, it seems the whole reason the UK is in tatters is due to politicians pursuing their own agenda.

The Monetary Policy Commitee (MPC) recently voted on a change an interest rate and there was change in stance with 3 members voting in favour of a hike.  I believe this is not a solution to the rapid rise in inflation. The Bank of England are trying to fight a problem with the wrong tools. Many believe rate hikes drop and fall usually by 0.25%. This is not gospel and rates may move by as little as 0.5%. If there is a change in rates I would expect this to be the choice which would not have a huge impact Sterling value.

If you have a large currency transfer to perform in the coming days, weeks or months then I will be happy to speak to you directly as I will be willing to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the best possible rate when you do come to trade. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a significant difference so for the sake of taking a few minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can contact me (Daniel Johnson) on dcj@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavor to get back to you as quickly as possible. Thank you for reading.

 

A stable government is needed for a Pound rally (Daniel Johnson)

Theresa May’s position has now been brought into question following her call for a snap election and the aftermath. Her decision to call an election when the opposition seemed so weak back fired when the conservatives failed to win a majority victory. Attacking tory core voters was deemed a poor move by senior conservative members. The PM’s stance on Brexit is causing much unrest, with the DUP now in place alongside the conservatives it has been rumored we could be moving towards a softer Brexit. If her stance changes she could be ousted from her position, This could well cause further political uncertainty and could cause the pound to weaken further as investors lose confidence.

For Sterling to rally it is vital a stable government is in place.

Keep a close eye on Brexit negotiations as they unfold this will be key to GBP/EUR buoyancy levels moving forward. The magnitude of these talks should not be underestimated, they are the most important talks for Britain in the last 50 years. Many have the opinion these negotiations could take far longer than the two year target. I think this could well be the case when you take into account the quickest negotiation for the US and another country took four years.

It is important to take into account if that if Brussels choose to play hard ball it could be detrimental to all those involved. Britain is one of the largest economies in Europe, the cost to other countries would be substantial if trade laws become problematic. Germany would be particularly effected when you look at the amount exports to the UK. The car industry would definitely be an area hit.This could cause negotiations to go through more quickly than anticipated, although the two year target still seems unrealistic.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a current provider I will be happy to perform a comparison and I am confident I can demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a few minutes and could potentially save you thousands. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

Sterling rises as negotiations begin, but will the Pound to Euro rate continue to climb as they continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has edged up today against the Euro as well as against other major currency pairs, making the buying of oversea’s currencies a cheaper proposition than yesterday.

The reason behind the positive movements for the Pound can be put down to the latest updates regarding the Brexit process. It appears that the early stages of the Brexit negotiations are going quite well, which has boosted sentiment surrounding the UK economy moving forward and therefore the Pounds value.

I think that moving forward if the negotiations continue to go relatively smoothly, we can expect to see the Pound begin its recovery from its current levels, especially when when consider how the Pound is trading around historical lows against many currency pairs at the moment.

Against the Euro Sterling has lost around 5 cents over the past month or so, so there’s certainty scope for the currency to gain if things go to plan.

Next week Friday is likely to be once of the busiest days for GBPEUR as GDP data for the UK will be released around 9.30am. The expectations are for 2% annual growth so we’ll see how the currency performs in the wake of the news.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Queen’s Speech set to cause swings on GBP/EUR (Daniel Johnson)

Could a firm Government cause a Pound rally

Today at 11.30am we will see the state opening of parliament and the Queen’s speech. This had been delayed as the conservatives and the DUP attempt to put a coalition deal together. There has been rumors the negotiations have been problematic with the DUP stating conservative negotiators have been poor. Let us hope this is not a sign of things  to come considering Brexit negotiations have just begun.

Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question and the current situation is a clear demonstration of what a country without a government does to the value of the currency in question. There is also in house troubles within the Tory party with senior conservative members giving eight days for Theresa May to prove her credential as PM or risk a leadership challenge. If her stance is changed on hard Brexit we could well see this occur. This could happen as the DUP wish to have a soft border between Northern Ireland and Southern Ireland, this would go against May’s plans for a hard borders which would be a feature in a hard Brexit. We are currently in political limbo and many are expecting Sterling to rise in value once we have a government in place. Although this is definitely a probable outcome I am of the opinion a conservative-DUP government is already factored into current exchange rates. The big market mover will be which course of action the government will take in regards to a hard or soft Brexit.

If you have a currency requirement and would like the assistance of a skilled broker feel free to get in touch. If you let me the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free, individual trading strategy. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. (Daniel Johnson)

Sterling rises after Bank of England hints at a rate hike (Joseph Wright)

The Pound appears to have consolidated above 1.14 against the Euro, making the buying Euro rate cheaper for those holding Sterling.

There are current 8 voting members of the BoE and yesterday almost half of them voted in favour of hiking rates, which caused the Pound to jump by over half a cent as soon as the news broke around lunchtime.

The reason behind the Bank of England’s voting members that would like to see a hike is most likely the rising rate of inflation in the UK, which is eating into consumers spending power as wage growth is beginning to stall within the UK.

Raising the interest rate would act to lessen the blow and it’s also a positive for the Pound so I do think we can expect to see the Pound climb if rates are going to rise for the first time in a decade.

Later this morning the Bank of England’s Quarterly Bulletin will be released which could send the markets either way depending on what’s said. If you would like to be kept updated with data releases that can impact your upcoming currency exchange plans do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Buying Euro rates see first signs of life since election result (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR has risen half a cent at the time of writing this article due to some very positive economic data in the UK cutting through some of the election noise.

Euro buyers seem to have found some support now that Theresa May has had positive meetings yesterday with her own conservative party, quelling rumours of a potential leadership challenge and painting the picture of a Government on the mend.

This was compounded today with positive murmurings coming from talks between Theresa May and the DUP in the first official steps to forming their informal partnership whilst the next government sits to perform its duties.

The manifesto will still need to be debated in Parliament, and, as such, is not out of the woods yet, and May needs to get a consensus on which features of the manifesto should be revised to meet the surge for opposition support.

For now however, the Pound seems set for improvements. Even the economic sphere is giving Sterling a helping hand.

Today inflation data for the UK economy showed thriving spending activity, pushing price rise rates up close to 3% for the year at 2.9%. Given that 60% of the UK economy is made up from domestic consumerism this is important, but there are also indirect benefits.

On Thursday the UK has its next interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. Given that a high interest rate (and this is high, the Bank of England tends to have a target rate of just 2%) is normally a prompt to raise rates and control spending activity, the UK may see policy lean more towards raising rates in the near term.

Such a move will certainly benefit the Pound’s value.

I am well positioned to assist anyone with a buying or selling Euro currency requirement to time their transfer and stay informed in this fluid marketplace. You can contact me directly on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer and your options.

One final point is that I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for a future requirement you have planned using only a small deposit, eliminating any risk from further currency exchange movements.

Election week is heating up. How will it effect the currency market? (Daniel Johnson)

Labor only 4 points behind the Tories

Labor are now very close in the polls to the conservatives. The latest YouGov poll has a gap of just four points. Historically, during an election the currency in question weakens. As a rule, the more uncertain the outcome, the weaker the currency. The conservatives are deemed as a safer bet for the UK economy than Labor. When the snap election was called we saw Sterling strengthen against the majority of major currencies due the significant lead in the polls. This gap has been cut which is why we have seen the pound drop in value.

If the conservatives gain a majority victory I would expect to see Sterling strengthen. If there is not a majority victory expect further falls for the pound. A hung parliament I would expect to see further falls for the pound. Despite many parties stating they are not willing to form a coalition with particular opposition,I’m sure they will soon change their tunes when they see the opportunity for power. As demonstrated by the Lib Dems in 2010.

If there is a coalition this could cause problems for the pound, parties combined with differing manifestos means getting anything through parliament will be problematic, but the major concern is how this will effect brexit trade negotiations. Potentially, Labor could form a coalition with more than one other party which could be considered worst case scenario for negotiations. I would not expect a pound  recovery in the event of this outcome.

If you have a currency requirement it is absolutely crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker who has traded through similar periods of volatility. We have contract options available that can put you in a position to trade even if your funds are not available, this should definitely be considered for those who are waiting on their Euros to released from other assets. This could be a small window of opportunity.

If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to get back to you within 24hrs with a free, trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you already have a currency provider I will be happy to perform a comparison and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to being of help.

 

Sterling to Euro rate continues to trade towards the lower end of its current range, will this trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is continuing to come under pressure as we get closer to the election, especially as a number of prominent opinion polls this week have shown that the lead the Conservatives had is diminishing with some suggesting that they may not win a majority of seats required.

If the option polls are correct we could be looking at another Hung Parliament in the UK which I believe would push the Pound lower and probably back towards the 1.10 mark.

The current trend for the GBPEUR pair is between 1.1350 up to 1.1950 although a couple of times towards the back end of last year the rate did touch 1.10 twice before seeing support.

A steep drop for Sterling is in my opinion likely if a Hung Parliament is announced, and I don’t think that the current UK Prime Minister has done herself many favours this week by not attending the debates between the political rivals in the race for number 10.

If you would like to be kept up to date with the latest market updates do feel free to register your interest with me and I’ll be happy to keep you updated.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound to Euro rates soften slightly after Monday recovery (Joshua Privett)

Pound to Euro rates of exchange have seen a marginal correction after the recovery recorded during the Bank Holiday period yesterday.

The heaviest falls to Sterling’s value came last week when it emerged that the election was much closer than first thought, and currency markets began scrambling over themselves to seek protection from what could end up being a very uncertain election period.

The margin for error is now very close. The expectation of a Conservative majority based on polling is similar to what the Remain camp were forecasted to win by in the Referendum last June. As such the confidence necessary to keep demand for Sterling high and therefore trading well against other currencies has been hindered somewhat.

We saw a recovery yesterday which is fairly common following large currency exchange movements, as markets re-balance waiting for more news about the upcoming election.

Without demand for Sterling its value would career downwards, making the Euro a more expensive prospect for anyone with an upcoming requirement.

Anyone with a Euro requirement in the immediate term may be wise to contact me to discuss a strategy on how to approach the vote to secure any targetted peaks and ensure you are better protected from any downside risk.

It could even be that the slight resurgence on exchange rates recorded today will be the best buying levels available before the election itself.

I have never had an issue securing more commercial exchange rates than what is on offer elsewhere. Contact me over the bank holiday weekend on jjp@currencies.co.uk while markets are closed for a short discussion concerning your personal situation.

Pound to Euro exchange rates take another dip following poor inflation figures (Joshua Privett)

Pound to Euro exchange rates have unfortunately taken a further tumble this morning as fears about inflation appear to be manifesting.

There is a very intimate relationship between interest rates and inflation which is why Pound to Euro exchange rates did not fare too well today when it was revealed inflation growth appeared to be ‘petering out’.

Growing inflation is a concern for Central Banks, as this suggests that prices are ‘running away’ from the ability for consumers to buy. A common tool to combat this is to conduct interest rate rises to curb spending by increase the incentive to save – in turn keeping prices lower.

The secondary effect of this is that the Pound tends to get a bit of a boost. If interest rates rise then holding Pound’s produces a higher yield, and this means you should normally see its value rise due to increased demand.

However, inflation is not rising fast enough to justify this, and it has lend credence today with the confirmation of the inflation rate that it is unlikely the UK will be seeing an interest rate hike.

This negative outlook for the Pound fed into markets immediately today, which is why GBP/EUR tumbled to begin today’s trading session when the news came out at 9:30am.

This will likely be the dominant narrative moving forward this week, so Pound to Euro buyers may be wise to move sooner rather than later to avoid a difficult day when buying an upcoming currency requirement.

This will likely dictate Sterling rates for the rest of the week, so anyone planning a transfer can contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer based on the outcome aimed at maximising your currency return, whether this be buying or selling Euros.

I have never had an issue beating the rate of exchange offered elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.

How will the UK General Election effect GBP/EUR? (Daniel Johnson)

Will the Election cause Sterling weakness?

Theresa May announced a snap election to take place on 8th June. Historically a snap election would cause the currency in question to weaken, however on his occasion we saw the opposite occur. Following the announcement Sterling strengthened over the Euro. It is important to remember the market moves on rumour as well as fact. It was a shrewd move by May to announce the election while the opposition is so weak. Due to the conservatives clear lead in the polls, I am of the opinion a conservative victory is already factored into current rates of exchange. I would expect little movement on GBP/EUR if the conservatives win. It is when the unexpected occurs you can expect significant movement on the exchange.

We can use the recent French election as an example. After the first round of voting, the field was broken down to two candidates. Macron and Le Pen. Macron was so dominant after the first round the Euro strengthened due to Macron’s pro EU stance. However, when his victory was confirmed we saw little movement on GBP/EUR.

Super Thursday

Thursday brings the UK interest rate decision. I would be very surprised to see any change. It will be interesting however to look at how the monetary Policy Committee (MPC) votes. The nine members vote on whether there should be any change in interest rates, if a member’s vote changes from last month’s we could see movement on the market as this is an indication a change in monetary policy could be on the cards.

We also have manufacturing data which is expected to show a slight decline, any variation from the prediction could result in volatility.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. I will provide an individual trading strategy with no obligation to trade. If you already have a currency provider let me know what you are being offered and I am confident in showing you a considerable saving. Feel free to contact me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

 

 

Will GBPEUR rise or fall on the French elections?

The general impression is that  GBPEUR will rise since the French election offers lots of potential for Euro weakness in the coming months. The overall impression on financial markets is that a Le Pen or Melenchon victory would severely weaken the Euro, with a real chance at least one of these candidates will make it through to the second round after Sunday’s first round vote the single currency could be in for a tough couple of weeks. What happens is very much open to interpretation, nothing should be taken for granted in such uncertain times, however.

The overriding expectation is that the French election will ultimately be won by the more centrist ‘reformer’ Macron. Performing well in the polls the market is expecting he will beat Le Pen in the run-off on the 7th May. If you have a Euro buying requirement the rates on Monday morning could be much improved as the market debates the likelihood of a Le Pen victory.

The pound has been much stronger on the back of the General Election announcement earlier this week for the UK. Most reports have the pound much stronger in the next few weeks as Theresa May cements her position and is able to drive through more reform. A flipside view is that with her relying less on the elements in the Tory party who seek a harder Brexit, she will be forced to create more of a softer Brexit. This is one of the reasons for the pound rising but such elements and expectations can quickly change.

If you are buying or selling the pound and euro in the coming days and weeks the importance of the French election and the continued Brexit fallout shouldn’t be underestimated. With only a few days between the two rounds of the French election Euro buyers might find they are presented with a fresh unique opportunity to buy Euros, the best in 2017 so far.

If you would like some assistance with the timing and planning of any currency transfers please contact the author Jonathan Watson directly by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Sterling hits an 8-day high against the Euro as French Presidency fears hit the single currency (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro rate exceeded 1.1750 yesterday afternoon and the pair have held strong above this level so far, as at the time of writing the pair are still trading above this level at the mid-market level.

What’s also interesting to see is that today’s low so far is 1.1756 which indicates to me that there could be support for the pair at this level.

With Sterling gaining slowly since the official start to the Brexit process it appears that the currency has hit its lowest level and it’s now on the recovery, which many within financial markets suggesting that the Brexit has been priced into the Pounds value.

What may help the Pound make additional gains against the Euro later this month is the French Presidential election. There have been fears and hedged bets against the Euro as there’s a chance far-right candidate Marine Le Pen could perform better than many are expecting. This would likely result in Euro weakness due to her plans for a Frexit, but over the past week the increasing popularity of far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon has also weighed on the Euros value due to his views on tax tariffs.

Now that Brexit is underway economic data is playing a more prominent role in the currency fluctuations involving the Pound, so if you’re planning on making a currency exchange involving the pound and another currency do feel free to get in touch regarding these events.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.