Tag Archives: Brexit

GBPEUR to fluctuate 5% in the upcoming months (Dayle Littlejohn)

Brexit negotiations seem to be heating up as both parties have promised to accelerate negotiations therefore I am expecting major volatility with GBPEUR exchange rates. 

Rewind the clock to the end of July, many of the leading banks were predicting by the end of the year parity for GBPEUR exchange rates, however UK interest rates gave the pound a boost which has led to Banks re thinking their forecasts.

At the moment GBPEUR exchange rates appears to be fluctuating in the lower teens and I expect by Christmas or potentially in the early new year for GBPEUR exchange rates to be either in the 1.06-1.07 or 1.17-1.8 range and the factor that is going to drive the pound higher or lower will be the Brexit negotiations.

A no deal puts the UK under more uncertainty and therefore I expect the pound to plummet, where as an agreement in regards to EU citizen rights and the divorce settlement bill will lead to trade negotiations and therefore a stronger pound.

The problem we have is we are unaware how the upcoming negotiations will go. For clients that are selling pounds to buy euros or euros to buy pounds, the question you have to ask yourself is what do you think will happen between the UK and EU. If you are unsure and not prepared to take the gamble, as some people are saying it’s like playing roulette, feel free to get in touch to discuss how we can save you money on your transfer.

For further information in regards to currency feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

Brexit Talks, Inflation and European Union Summit – Impact on GBPEUR exchange rates (Tom Holian)

Pound vs Euro exchange rates have remained range bound during today’s trading session in anticipation of what could be a huge day on the currency markets tomorrow.

Both UK inflation and Eurozone inflation is due to be released tomorrow morning and this could cause big movements for GBPEUR exchange rates.

The reason for Sterling’s gains back in September was the rumours that the Bank of England may be considering hiking interest rates and so if inflation comes out high this could cause Sterling strength vs the Euro but if we see inflation falling I expect to see the Pound drop against the single currency as it means the BoE will be less likely to consider raising rates on November 2nd.

UK unemployment figures are due on Wednesday and like with the inflation data this could cause volatility on the markets.

To end the week the European Union will be holding a summit which will include the topic of Brexit and any trade deals that could be proposed between the continent and the UK so overall a busy end to the week for Sterling vs Euro exchange rates.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as I can.

Will the pound continue to slide against the Euro?

Overall the pound looks like it could easily slip in the coming weeks as the uncertainty over Brexit looks like it could build further and this will undoubtedly present some opportunities for those clients looking to buy or sell. Exactly what happens in the future is very difficult to predict but hopefully this will create some movements for awaiting a firm reason to make their deal.

Expectations for the pound to slide are therefore very strong and we could easily see some big changes in the future, principally as a result of the key economic decisions by the Bank of England and also the European Central Bank decision. Overall markets are generally fearful over what lies ahead in the decisions by these two central bank beasts, big questions over to what extent the ECB will taper and to what extent the Bank of England will raise interest rates loom.

It would not be surprising to see the pound slip further against the Euro as political uncertainty for the UK outweighs the Eurozone. Yes, the problems in Spain and even Germany are reasons to fearful, over the future direction on the Euro. However the UK is as a result of the Brexit in a worse position. This is the current situation, it could of course change very quickly!

If you have a transfer to make buying or selling Euros for pounds this next couple of weeks will be vital to determining which way exchange rates could go in the future. Overall I would not be surprised to see the pound losing value as investors concerns resurface, a more positive ECB would also see the Euro stronger.

If you have a transfer to make in the future then keeping in touch with us and the latest trends and news is key. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson, by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

GBPEUR plummets due to Theresa May

UK Prime Minister Theresa May delivered a Brexit speech yesterday which was interrupted by a prankster who gave Theresa May a fake p45 and claimed it was from Boris Johnson. The prime minister tried to stay composed however she failed to keep it together and the speech has left investors questioning will the Prime Minister last much longer.

Some Conservative MPs have rallied behind Mrs May however it’s being reported that dozens of Conservative MPs are asking the Prime Minister to step aside.  Bookmakers Betway have now cut odds to 5/6 that Mrs May will resign before the next election.

In other news Germany’s BDI industry associate has warned UK companies to make provisions of a very hard Brexit as the UK government is lacking a clear concept on Brexit. This has caused the pound to plummet in value against the Euro and GBPEUR exchange rates have now lost over 2 cents in the matter of a few trading days.

This afternoon Bank of England member Andy Haldane is set to address the public if he continues with the Bank of England stance of raising interest rates  short term sterling could potentially recover some of the losses.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR exchange rates feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you and the process of using the company I work for drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Pound hits 2 month high against the Euro following Bank of England meeting (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates are now trading at their highest level since July after the Bank of England claimed that they may be considering raising interest rates earlier than markets currently expect.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney said that he was pleased with UK economic growth which has been positive in recent months and combined with record low levels of UK unemployment this could be a justification for raising interest rates.

Inflation continues to run high after hitting 2.9% during August which is the highest in 5 years and this also helped the Pound to make gains vs the Euro.

Indeed, rumours are that the Bank of England may be considering raising interest rates early next year compared to the previous expectation of 2019.

However, I don’t think we see a rate hike coming anytime soon so I think this was just posturing in order to help the Pound make gains.

On Friday next week Prime Minister Theresa May will be in Florence to set out her vision of post-Brexit Britain in which she will talk about the UK ‘leaving the EU but not leaving Europe.

This could potentially cause a lot of movement for GBPEUR exchange rates so keep a close eye out for what may happen to rates at the end of next week.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBPEUR holds steady above 1.10

Yesterday the Office for National Statistics released the latest Consumer Price Index numbers for the UK and inflation had risen 0.3% compared to last months figure of 2.6%. With inflation now sitting at 2.9% it appears that speculators have purchased the pound in anticipation that the Bank of England could give some indication about a future interest rate hike on Thursday.

However I actually believe the complete opposite and wouldn’t be surprised to see the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney to talk down sterling. In recent weeks the Governor has made it clear that the weaker pound is the reason for the shift in inflation and the Bank of England will act off the back of Brexit developments.

With this in mind I believe the spike above 1.10 is a spike and in the upcoming weeks GBPEUR exchange rates will fall back towards the 8 year lows we were experiencing only 2-3 weeks ago. Therefore anyone looking to purchase euros short term should consider buying there euros upfront. For euro sellers rates are still fantastic however if you can hold your nerve rates could improve towards the end of the month.

If you reading this website for the first time as you need to convert GBPEUR, feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

If you are already using a brokerage and would like to a free quote email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands.

Common clients I help on a daily basis are Sole traders, MD or FD of a company, property buyers and sellers. If you are one of the three and are currently using the bank to transfer your currency you need to be made aware that you could be saving money!

 

 

Sterling Euro Exchange Rate Forecast (Tom Holian)

Sterling saw a small increase in value against the Euro towards  the end of the week after the UK manufacturing data came out better than expected.

The results were relatively strong owing to the low value of Sterling which has increased orders from the continent.

However, in my mind I think the gains for the Pound vs the Euro will be relatively short term as the UK’s Trade Deficit figures did not show any signs of improvement.

Confidence in the UK and Sterling is very low at the moment caused by the uncertainty of what is happening with the Brexit discussions. We are almost 6 months into the talks and as yet we do not appear to have any clear picture of what is happening.

There has been suggestions of between EUR60bn-EUR100bn for the UK’s ‘Divorce Bill’ to start the process to leave but nothing has yet been decided.

Turning the focus towards economic data we have the release of UK inflation data on Tuesday followed by UK unemployment on Wednesday.

Both sets of data could cause volatility and I think we could even see GBPEUR rates hit 1.10 for a brief period of time by Wednesday.

However, I think the gains will be short term as investors will continue to be concerned by the topic of Brexit and I think this will continue to cause problems for Sterling Euro exchange rates

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

GBPEUR 3 month forecast

Yesterday President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi hinted that future key monetary policy decisions will be made in October. The President was eluding to the quantitative easing program that has run for the last few years in a bid to stimulate and kick start the economy. With many economists stating growth has improved throughout Europe their is hype that the quantitative easing program will be cut in the upcoming months.

It is important to note if the quantitative easing program is cut (tapered) I expect major euro strength. 

Brexit negotiations are continuing to weigh down on the pound as UK and EU negotiations cannot come to an agreement about EU citizens rights. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has made it clear that the UK and European Court of Justice will part ways after Brexit which in my opinion means EU citizens wont be protected and this is another stumbling block negotiations needs to overcome.

Over the next 3 months I expect exchange rates to fluctuate between 1.05-1.10, as I wouldn’t be surprised to see further sterling weakness. However with European exports becoming to expensive, spikes in the market could occur throughout the month when Draghi tries to talk down the currency.

For further information in regards to currency feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

Brexit talks continue to harm the pound

Since the UK public decided to vote out of the EU, GBPEUR exchange rates have dropped 18%. To put this into monetary value a €200,000 purchase is now £33,000 More expensive. Many of my clients that are purchasing euros are asking if rates will continue to get worse or recover towards the end of the year.

Brexit negotiations are one of the reasons that GBPEUR exchange rate now sit at an 8 year low. The third round of negotiations took place earlier in the week and by accounts did not go particularly well. EU officials have made it clear that the divorce settlement and EU citizens’ rights need to be sorted before any trade negotiations will begin. However UK official’s believe the numbers do not add up and therefore they want to discuss a trade deal alongside the divorce settlement.

With months ticking on by, and the UK and EU no closer to agreeing a new trade deal that will benefit both parties, it looks like further falls will occur in the upcoming months. Media stations have been reporting investment giants, JP Morgan and CITI Bank believe exchange rates will reach parity throughout 2018 and if negotiations continue to follow the same path I believe this could occur.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR exchange rates feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you and the process of using the company I work for drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

The number of GBP to EUR parity forecasts increases, will GBP/EUR hit 1.1 by the end of the year? (Joseph Wright)

The talk of Brexit negotiations beginning badly is having an impact on the Pounds value against all major currency pairs, but it appears that the GBP/EUR rate has been the biggest loser in all of this so far.

Recent comments from David Davis, the Brexit secretary have added fuel to the fire after he revealed that Michel Barnier ‘is getting quite cross with us’. Michel Barnier is the EU’s chief negotiator which just goes to show that the UK going to need to get a move on regarding its Brexit negotiation plans.

With there being less likelihood of an interest rate hike this year from the Bank of England now that inflation pressures have subsided there have been a number of major financial institutions forecasting parity between the Pound and the Euro in 2018.

In just the last week, Morgan Stanley, HSBC and now City Index have all made this prediction which gives those planning on making a large GBP to EUR transfer a decision to make as the rate is currently just below 1.10.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding the Pound to Euros price movements do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will the Pound fall lower than 1.10 over the next few days? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has remained under pressure against the Euro recently as the negative effects of Brexit appear to be gathering pace.

We are now ten years on from the credit crunch and over 10 years since the Bank of England last raised interest rates in the UK.

Trade Balance figures in the UK yesterday showed a big deficit for June and this is highlighting that the lack of investment and spending by businesses in light of the uncertainty caused by Brexit.

Manufacturing and industrial production data showed a rise but the overwhelming factor is that of Brexit which is causing problems for Sterling Euro exchange rates.

Credit ratings agency Moody’s has recently cut its outlook for consumer debt and has warned that high inflation combined with a falling in wages could cause a large exposure to the debt.

Next week on Tuesday UK inflation data is due out and I think if we see a figure lower than last month’s 2.6% then this could see GBPEUR rates fall below the support level of 1.10 going into the middle of next week.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of buying Euros then it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to secure an exchange rate for a future date with a small deposit.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Euro at 10 month high against the Pound (Tom Holian)

Pound Euro exchange rates have continued to fall this week hitting support levels of 1.10 earlier this afternoon.

The Pound is really struggling caused by the uncertainty of Brexit and the recent downgrading of the UK’s growth forecast for both this year and next.

Earlier on today French Trade Balance came out much better than expected as did their Export figures which further highlighted the strength of the economy in the Eurozone.

Indeed, the Euro is now trading at its best level in almost 18 months against the US Dollar which is good news for anyone holding Euros at the moment.

If you’re in the process of selling a property in Europe but have not yet completed it may be worth looking at buying a forward contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

This involves paying a small deposit and the remaining balance at a date that works for you. This means you know exactly how much Sterling you will get when the property completes and can be especially useful if you’re concerned as to what may happen to GBPEUR exchange rates in the weeks ahead.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

GBP/EUR Drops Again During Friday’s Trading (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has come under pressure once again during Friday’s trading, following poor Manufacturing & Industrial Production figures this morning.

With figures well under market expectation, the Pound was under pressure immediately dropping almost a cent at the low to 1.1281.

Despite a recovery during the afternoon following the NIESR Gross Domestic Product (GDP) prediction.

The well-respected think tank has predicted GDP to grow to 0.3% this month, which if it comes to fruition, will show a steady improvement from last month’s reading.

It wasn’t that long ago that the Pound was creeping towards 1.20 but a complete shift in conditions, has seen the EUR gain almost seven cents at its high.

Despite Sterling finding a foothold over recent days, the current climate both politically & economically inside the UK means that any major upturn is unlikely in the short-term.

We can help our clients pin point specific moments to execute their currency exchanges, even when they are battling a falling market.

The current uncertainty surrounding our fragmented government and grave concerns amongst investors regarding how we will facilitate our Brexit, are two of the defining factors driving Sterling’s value at present.

With both of these issues, in particular the long Brexit process, will be resolved in the short-term and as such clients with a GBP/EUR requirement need to be realistic in terms of what they’re targeting on any exchange.

Clients should also consider any bottom lines, in order to protect their positions wherever possible.

There are no guarantees in the currency markets and with so many unanswered questions, let us help you navigate this turbulent market and maximise any currency exchange you need to make.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

 

Will GBPEUR rise or fall in July? Important news for GBPEUR clients….

Since the UK election GBPEUR has only moved 2 cents between the high and the low which some would read as boring, I read as opportunity! Clients looking to buy or sell the pound or Euros following say an overseas property purchase or sale, should be preparing for further volatility on the foreign exchange market that could well present some fresh opportunities to maximise their exchange rate. On a €100,000 sale into sterling a cent at current levels is £750 more in the sellers pocket. We work to highlight improvements on the market to clients in such positions to help them make an informed choice about when to execute their exchange.

If you have a transfer to consider buying or selling Euros for pounds getting the timing on your exchange correct is critical to getting the most for your money. With GBPEUR having been trapped in a range between 1.1270 and 1.1468 there has not been much opportunity for either Euro buyers or sellers to capitalise. I have many of my clients who need to buy Euros for an overseas property purchase or to pay business Invoices holding off expecting the rate to recover. And too, many of my Euro sellers are also holding off expecting the pound to crash!

With so many different potential outcomes from the rates being prepared is vital to capitalise on spikes or to limit any losses. A very popular contract type at present is a limit order whereby we look to automatically purchase a currency for you if we do get to a certain level. Popular Limits buying Euros are at 1.15 currently.

If you have a transaction to consider in the future then making some plans in advance is crucial to getting the best deals. We can very easily set up one of these orders to help limit your exposure and maximise the return.

For more information on the GBPEUR forecast and the best way to maximise your rate please speak to me Jonathan Watson to get a full overview and discuss strategy. Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk with an overview of your position to get the latest news and updates.

Brexit talks and the impact on Pound Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

We are now a year on since the Brexit vote when the British public voted to leave the European Union and during this time we have seen huge losses for the Pound against the Euro.

As yet we are no clearer as to whether the UK will opt for a soft or a hard Brexit. Clearly in the interests of the UK and the Pound a soft Brexit would be preferred but this could take a very long time from coming to fruition.

Yesterday, Theresa May was in Brussels speaking about the subject of Brexit and she has suggested that the UK will maintain the rights of EU nationals living in the UK of which there are over 3 million.

The issue though is that the EU has not yet discussed a reciprocal arrangement and that is why the Pound has had a difficult end to the week.

As yet the Tories have still yet to from an alliance with the DUP which is necessary in order to form a majority government.

I think we are only a few days from this happening and when it does take place I expect the Pound to rise against the Euro but I think the gains will be short lived so if you need to buy Euros keep a close eye on the political situation in the UK.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. I have worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 and I’m confident of being able to offer you better rates when buying currency as well as helping you with various contract types.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

How far could the pound fall against the euro (Dayle Littlejohn)

Over the last 8 weeks GBPEUR exchange rates have dropped 6 1/4 cents (5.5%) making a €200,000 purchase £9,250 more expensive.  

The pound has been declining due to Theresa May not winning the UK General election by a majority which has weakened her position as Prime Minister and also her power when negotiating Brexit. This week Brexit negotiations have begun and the PM has already backed tracked and gave the upper hand to the EU by confirming the divorce settlement will have to be decided before trade negotiations begin.

The Bank of England have also been making headline news. Three members of the monetary policy committee surprised the market by voting in favour of hiking interest rates but less than a week later Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney talked down the MPCs decision confirming the Bank of England are not in the position to raise rates.

Looking further ahead I believe the pound could fall further against the euro due to Theresa May remaining under pressure as Prime Minister and Brexit negotiations. It was only 8 months ago when GBPEUR dropped below 1.10 so the scope is there. For euro buyers purchasing sooner rather than later is the safe option. The currency company I work for has the power to undercut any bank or brokerage therefore I would recommend emailing me for a quote drl@currencies.co.uk.

For euro sellers timing is everything. On a daily basis I help clients that have sold property in Europe and are repatriating their euros. With regular market information my clients make informed decisions of when to trade. If you are selling or have sold a property abroad and would like to make the most amount of sterling possible feel free to email me with a brief description and I will respond with the process of using our brokerage drl@currencies.co.uk.

 

Queen’s Speech set to cause swings on GBP/EUR (Daniel Johnson)

Could a firm Government cause a Pound rally

Today at 11.30am we will see the state opening of parliament and the Queen’s speech. This had been delayed as the conservatives and the DUP attempt to put a coalition deal together. There has been rumors the negotiations have been problematic with the DUP stating conservative negotiators have been poor. Let us hope this is not a sign of things  to come considering Brexit negotiations have just begun.

Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question and the current situation is a clear demonstration of what a country without a government does to the value of the currency in question. There is also in house troubles within the Tory party with senior conservative members giving eight days for Theresa May to prove her credential as PM or risk a leadership challenge. If her stance is changed on hard Brexit we could well see this occur. This could happen as the DUP wish to have a soft border between Northern Ireland and Southern Ireland, this would go against May’s plans for a hard borders which would be a feature in a hard Brexit. We are currently in political limbo and many are expecting Sterling to rise in value once we have a government in place. Although this is definitely a probable outcome I am of the opinion a conservative-DUP government is already factored into current exchange rates. The big market mover will be which course of action the government will take in regards to a hard or soft Brexit.

If you have a currency requirement and would like the assistance of a skilled broker feel free to get in touch. If you let me the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free, individual trading strategy. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. (Daniel Johnson)

Brexit talks begin and the impact for Pound Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

The Brexit negotiations have now finally begun after the triggering of Article 50 many weeks ago. We are also almost one year on from the vote to leave the European Union which caused the Pound to plummet by almost 15 cents and as yet it is still not clear whether the UK will opt for a hard or a soft Brexit.

As yet the Conservatives have failed to reach an agreement with the DUP but to me this is just a matter of time. The importance of this arrangement could be key to the Brexit talks as the Irish border is clearly an enormous issue so it could be argued that the DUP could be integral for a softer Brexit.

It is going to take months before a clear picture as to how Brexit will pan out but in the short term I would be surprised to see this have any positive effect when it comes to Sterling vs the Euro.

My reasoning is that there are 27 member states that want to keep the European Union together compared to just the UK so for me I think the talks will be rather difficult as well as protracted which surely cannot help the Pound vs the Euro.

Therefore, if you are looking to buy Euros it may be worth organising this in the short term.

 

Having worked in the foreign exchange markets since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident not only of being able to offer you better exchange rates compared to using your own bank but also help you with the timing of your transfer of currency.

If you would like further information or a free quote when buying or selling Euros and would like to save money then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Under Pressure Ahead of BoE Interest Rate Decision (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling remains under pressure, despite a slight upturn following yesterday’s positive inflation data.

GBP/EUR rates hit a high of 1.1407, before retracting following some positive Eurozone employment data. The UK also had its official Unemployment rate released, with the figure of 4.6% coming out as expected.

The markets focus will now turn to tomorrow’s key data releases. UK Retail Sales and the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision & subsequent minutes will take centre stage. Those clients holding Sterling will hoping for a marked improvement on the UK’s economic outlook, with last week’s general election results still handicapping any major advances for the Pound.

However, EUR sellers should also proceed with caution. Any deal between UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s led Conservative party and the unknown and somewhat controversial DUP party could bring with it some political stability and this could help alleviate some of the pressure on Sterling.

Now could be the perfect opportunity to sell any short-term EUR positions and remove any uncertain ty from this extremely fragile and unpredictable market.

The current market is proving increasingly difficult to dissect and as such I am of the opinion that clients both buying and selling GBP/EUR should be looking for short-term opportunities.

On-going concerns regarding our Brexit negotiations are also weighing heavily on investors’ minds and with confidence in are fragmented government hitting new lows over the past few days, I would not be prepared to gamble on which direction GBP/EUR rates may take next.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.

UK Braces Itself for Election Day – How will GBP/EUR Rates React to the Result? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have remained marooned under 1.15 during Wednesday’s trading, ahead of tomorrow’s UK general election.

With recent polls suggesting the Corbyn led Labour party have gained some momentum, the key question now is what is the likely result and how with the markets react to the final outcome?

Whilst the result seems to be more uncertain over recent days, the Pound did find some support earlier this week. It gained over a cent against the EUR following a tough run over the past week.

The markets have been gearing themselves up towards tomorrow’s key vote and it has been the election and the subsequent outcome, which has been shaping GBP/EUR exchange rates over recent weeks.

Investors had clearly factored in a Conservative majority victory but since reports of a 20-point lead last month, each subsequent poll has indicated a decreasing advantage. This in turn has caused investors to panic, with the result being a sell-off of large Sterling positions and a downturn in the Pound’s value.

I’m extremely wary about pre-election polls, especially after last year’s UK referendum and US election results. However, with strong indications that a hung parliament is now a very real possibility, are you prepared to gamble on the result if you have a short-term Sterling currency exchange to mate?

Personally, I feel that the Pound is fighting an on-going uphill battle and any short-term improvements should be protected wherever feasible. Even a strong Conservative victory will only boost the Pound back to the levels we saw a couple of weeks ago, which have already proved unsustainable over recent months.

Looking beyond Thursdays vote and the UK economy still has many issues to content with. The Brexit negotiations have not even started and seemed to have hit a wall, whilst UK growth forecasts for next year and beyond have shrunk.

I still feel based on current market conditions that the downside risk outweighs the current upside gains and for this reason I would be removing as much risk as possible from the current market.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt.

Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk.