Tag Archives: Brexit

GBPEUR remains range bound in the 1.13s

This morning the UK released their latest average earnings numbers and Europe released their latest GDP numbers and both economic data releases met the expectation. Due to there being no surprises GBPEUR exchange rates have remains fairly flat throughout the day. If anything the pound has made some minor gains against the euro and you could argue the fall in European production is the reasoning for this.

GBPEUR exchange rates have been gradually falling over the last 2 weeks since Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney announced that the UK were unlikely to raise interest rates. With the central bank failing to hike last Thursday this story could have a major influence on the future of GBPEUR going forward.

UK economic data releases need to be watched closely if you are converting GBPEUR short term. Economic data for April was terrible, if we see a rebound now that the weather has changed the likelihood of a hike increases and therefore the pound should follow suit. However Brexit negotiations will also be a key driver for exchange rates.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has warned Brexiteers today that she is not prepared for a no deal which would in turn create a hard border in Ireland. My opinion has not changed I would be extremely tempted to buy euros upfront as the Brexit story has the potential to crash the pound if the negotiations go horribly wrong.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR currency transfers feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

What can we expect for GBPEUR rates from the Bank of England interest rate decision?

The pound to Euro exchange rate is trading in familiar ranges in a volatile manner as the market is trying to second guess what we can expect next from the Bank of England. The interest rate decision is at 12 noon today and we also have the latest Quarterly Inflation Report from Mark Carney and his team too. The pound has been very susceptible to changes in UK rate expectations and today is a day of reckoning.

The rates could rise to the previous highs today of 1.16 but this seems unlikely given the current expectation that the pound would actually lose value because of the Bank of England being now less likely to raise interest rates. Over the next few weeks, we are likley to see lots of volatility as the markets try to second guess just what the Bank of England are looking to do longer-term.

The outlook for sterling is undoubtedly more positive than the expectations previously set by the Bank of England but we are unlikely to actually see any actual hike today, I think it is more likely to be longer-term in the future when we will see a hike. GBPEUR will, therefore, be more than likely to rise higher in the future as we get more news regarding just what the final expectations are for the pound.

GBPEUR will more than likely trade within a range of 1.13-1.15 in my opinion. If you have a transfer buying or selling the pound against the Euro then I would be looking to make plans ahead of the event to ensure I can capitalise on the volatility.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

How will the ECB and the BoE move rates?

The BoE (Bank of England) and the ECB (European Central Bank) are going to be the main talking points that come up in the weeks ahead as we get further clarification on the final outcomes of economic policy for both central banks. The decisions by both teams will more than likely lead to movement on GBPEUR rates and these two events are well worth monitoring closely.

Tomorrow is the ECB interest rate decision which could easily trigger some volatility in Euro rates since there is a lack of uncertainty over what kind of commentary we will see from the ECB team. President of the ECB Mario Draghi will be leading the helm and give us the latest views on monetary policy moving forward.

Recent ECB Meeting Minutes highlighted a concern about a strong Euro and this is what saw the Euro much weaker a couple of weeks ago. This is really at odds with the behaviour of the Euro at the last ECB meeting where the Euro rose to its strongest point of 2018 against the pound.

The 10th May sees the Bank of England meeting which is likely to be a very strong trigger on the pound as investors are expecting an interest rate hike but it is by no means set in stone. The uncertainty about whether or not the UK will hike plus the lack of clarity about future hikes will all act as trigger points for future volatility on GBPEUR.

If you have any currency transfers buying or selling the pound against the Euro these pieces of news are likely to be a major market mover and it is well worth highlighting any potential transfer to us well in advance. For more information at no cost or obligation over what to expect and what to be prepared for, please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

GDP to influence exchange rates this week

The recent positive run for GBPEUR exchange rates came to an end last week, when UK inflation feel sharply and Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney couldn’t confirm the prospects of an interest rate hike in May. Sterling fell from the 1.16s to the 1.14s causing concern for euro buyers. Any further commentary from the Bank of England over the next couple of weeks before the decision will have the potential to cause further fluctuations.

Other UK economic data in the form of Retail sales was another reason why the Governor failed to state a hike is just around the corner. UK GDP numbers are set to be released this week and the predictions are for a slight fall as the adverse weather conditions continue to cause a problem for the UK. If GDP falls I expect that an interest rate hike may not occur which could be a problem for euro buyers but good news for Euro sellers.

In other news the house of commons is set to meet this week to discuss the customs union. The House of lords voted in favour of remaining within the customers union, however Theresa May has made it clear that the  UK is leaving. If this story continues to escalate again this could put pressure on the pound.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR currency transfers feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

Will the GBP/EUR rate breach 1.16 this month, and what’s causing the Pound to gain in value?

Sterling has performed well once again today, gaining by almost half a percent against the Euro and almost hitting 1.16 at its highest point.

Sentiment surrounding the UK economy and the Pound’s value moving forward has been improving recently, as the economy and a number of important stumbling blocks have been passed. Hopes of an interest rate hike from the Bank of England next month have jumped to the extent that the hike is almost set in stone. The BoE has hinted on numerous occasions that the rate hike is on the cards so I actually think that the interest rate hike has already been priced in so I’m not expecting to see a jump in the rate if it actually takes place. The risk is perhaps more to the downside as if there is no hike I think the Pound will fall.

The Brexit transitional agreement has already been agreed which is another reason for the stronger Pound. Moving forward there is the issue surrounding the Northern Irish border and I think this may pose a threat to a stronger Pound as the year goes on.

This week there will be the release of wage growth for the UK. This is a key area as wage growth had lagged inflation but now it’s expected to overtake the inflation level and therefore firm up the BoE’s interest rate plans. If you would like to discuss this economic data release in more detail do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Struggling to Make an Impact Above 1.15 (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has held its been position against the EUR of late but so far has struggled to make any impact above 1.15.

The EUR continues to find support around this threshold, as it has done every time it has been tested over recent months.

There is no doubt the Pound has gained a foothold following a strong run of UK economic data and progress in Brexit talks but is the Pound likely to break through the current levels any time soon?

Whilst it is impossible to predict exactly how the markets will evolve, any clients with an upcoming Sterling currency exchange to execute should be wary about assuming that the Pound’s upward will last. Despite the UK and EU agreeing on terms for a transitional period ahead of the UK’s inevitable Brexit, this agreement has simply kept the ‘wolf from the door’ for another couple of years.

There are still many unanswered question regarding the UK’s future trade status both with our European neighbours and globally and as such I feel the Pound is still likely to be handicapped over the coming months, at least to some extent.

Looking at the Eurozone itself and its economy continues to perform admirably, with the European Central Bank (ECB) likely to tie up their current monetary policy programme before the end of this year. If this dopes happen it is a show of strength and again it means the ECB no longer feel the Eurozone economy need propping up.

In the short-term UK data tomorrow in the form of Manufacturing & Industrial Production figures is expected to be mixed, so it unlikely the Pound will receive much support following these releases, unless of course they come out above the markets predicted result.

If you do have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

GBP/EUR – When shall I move? (Daniel Johnson)

Why will GBP/EUR not breach 1.15 and remain above 1.15?

Sterling has made significant improvements against the majority of major currencies of late. Breaking resistance points against both the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar, 1.80 and 1.40 respectively. Against the Euro however it only breached the key resistance point of 1.15 for a very short period.

1.15 has been the absolute peak of the market, this level only being breached on a few occasions and every time it quickly retracts. I have been saying for months that if you have to move short term trade if the market sits in the 1.14s.

There has been several catalyst for Sterling’s recent improvement. We have seen retail sales figures come in well above expectations. Previous readings came in at – 0.2% and the prediction was a rise to 0.4%. They landed at 0.8% for February.

We also saw average wage growth move much closer to parity with inflation, which is a true sign of a healthy economy. An interest rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) was already highly probable in May, but this may force the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) hand.

It was also announced that the UK would have access to single market during the Brexit transitional period, which is very good news indeed.

If ever there was a reasoning of late for GBP/EUR to break 1.15 and stay above 1.15 these were it. What gives me worries is that it didn’t.  I think it means we are going to have to have some pretty significant news to do so. Perhaps this could come in the form of news on the Irish border situation. which is at present a major point of contention in Brexit negotiations.

Personally, I am still of the opinion if you have to move short term do so in the 1.14s.

If you have a currency requirement I would b happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Recovery Softens (Matthew Vassallo)

UK manufacturing data came in slightly better than expected yesterday but GBP/EUR rates have remained fairly flat this week.

The Pound reached a high of 1.1473 today before retracting slightly but has struggled to make any impact above 1.15 against its EUR counterpart.

The catalyst for Sterling’s recent improvement was confirmation that UK & EU have all but agreed on the terms for a Brexit transitional deal. This positive spike has softened over the past week, with the long-term uncertainty around the UK economy still handicapping any major sustainable advances for Sterling.

Whilst the recent news has helped to alleviate many of the concerns that the UK was going to be left in a state of economic limbo following our separation, investors remain wary about the UK’s position post Brexit. A strong Eurozone economy is also helping to support the single currency and as such the EUR has found plenty of support around the current levels.

Despite a positive run of UK economic data the Pound cannot seem to break free from its shackles and with trade talks underway between the UK & EU, could we see further pressure on the Pound over the coming weeks?

With the Bank of England (BoE) giving indications that they may raise interest rates over the coming months, there is certainly a reason for those clients holding Sterling positions to feel more optimistic than in recent times.

However, with many unanswered questions and only fragile confidence in the UK economy, it may be prudent to protect any short-term GBP/EUR currency positions. This is not the first time the pound has threatened to make significant inroads against the other major currencies. Despite the fact there may be more substance to the recent increase in value, there are still many unanswered question, in terms of how the UK economy will be shaped and perform when it goes it alone.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Will GBPEUR hit 1.20 this year?

The pound has risen against the Euro and we are now much closer to hitting the 1.20 level than we had been in recent months and really since the Brexit vote. Whilst the rate has been higher than where we are currently, it has been in the 1.19’s at times last February and just after the vote in 2016, the current conditions point towards improvements ahead.

This is down to the progress that is being made on Brexit plus the prospect of the Bank of England raising interest rates. This is being evidenced from the recent twists and turns on the Irish border which are expected to be completed by the end of June. The Irish Prime Minister has stated he wants this finalised by then which should trigger GBP strength once it happens.

Further hints of a deal being reached on a trade basis with the EU would also see the pound much higher in the coming weeks and months. This might take until the autumn but is a real possibility to trigger GBPEUR towards 1.20. The Bank of England might also be looking to raise interest rates or raise their forecast of raising interest rates, this would also be supportive for the pound.

Is 1.20 a guarantee?

Well no, of course not. Nothing is guaranteed on exchange rates! If however, the above conditions are satisfied then it is very possible but this will rely on the Euro not being too strong. The ECB meeting later this month could see a stronger Euro if the ECB are more positive about hiking their rates and withdrawing monetary policy in the future. Any hurdles on Brexit would also hinder the pricing too.

If you need to buy Euros with pounds the outlook is now much more positive but nothing should be taken for granted on exchange rates. For more information on how to track the best rates and assistance with strategies to help maximise your currency exchange, please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

Which data releases could influence the GBP/EUR rate this week? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has so far managed to hold onto its recent gains and remain trading above the 1.14 mark. This suggests to me that market sentiment surrounding the Pound has improved as previously this was the top end of the current trend and GBP/EUR would usually struggle to hold its ground at these levels.

The pair did reach 1.15 at one stage recently after news broke that the Brexit transitional deal had been arranged, much to the joys of the financial markets. This matter had been a concern previously and limited the upside for the Pound, so understandably Sterling spiked upward in the wake of the news.

Sterling has also been boosted after the Bank of England has hinted at raising interest rates in May of this year, meaning that the monetary policy of the BoE is likely to be more aggressive than many had initially expected. The pick up in wage growth has also increased these chances as wage growth begins to align with the increasing inflation levels.

Later this week there will be PMI releases covering a number of sectors within the UK, all of which are expected to show slowdowns. If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving the GBP/EUR pair, it may be wise looking into the current trade levels in case the PMI releases are worse than expected. They offer us forward looking insight into market sentiments so a gloomy outlook could result in a weaker Pound.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPEUR rise further this week?

It is very tempting to track the GBPEUR rate now hoping for further improvements, the rates have risen to some of the best to buy Euros with pounds since May 2017. To understand whether this pair will rise further it is useful to track what has happened so far and understand why. We can then also look at events ahead to make a decision on what is likely to happen.

Overall I don’t expect the pound to Euro rate to rise significantly higher, I think actually there could be a danger the levels will fall back as the enthusiasm for the pound begins to wear off. Whilst there has been progress made with Brexit and the Bank of England should raise interest rates in May, this news is largely priced in now.

This means that any signs events are not going to progress as smoothly as previously believed could disrupt the currency and cause the pound to fall. There is still a huge amount to accomplish for the UK on Brexit plans and there is also many economic conditions for the UK to meet to warrant future hikes, which would cause the pound to rise.

I do now expect rates for Euro buyers to remain favourable but any further good news will probably be met with limited confidence on the rates since the good news is already out there. If you need to buy Euros with pounds then making some plans around the current favourable levels seems very sensible to me.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you anytime and assisting in the future.

If you need to transfer above £10,000 or Euros internationally and wish for some information on the best rates and assistance with the timing and planning of any transaction, please speak to me as above to achieve a preferential rate.

GBP/EUR Forecast – Positive Run for Sterling Cools During Friday’s Trading (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have leveled out during Friday’s trading, following a busy week of economic data for both the UK & the Eurozone.

The pair is currently trading around 1.1450, with the Pound hitting a high of 1.1534 yesterday before quickly retracting.

Sterling had made impressive gains during Thursday’s trading, with the Pound gaining further value after a positive start to the week.

The catalyst for this improvement was reports earlier in the week that the UK & EU have all but agreed on the terms for a Brexit transitional deal.

This helped to drive investor confidence higher following weeks of stagnation and any progress was always likely to help facilitate a rise in the Pound’s value. It also helped to alleviate many of the concerns that the UK was going to be left in a state of economic limbo, following our separation and as such investor confidence surged and Sterling’s value has mirrored this.

This positive trend was further accentuated on Wednesday following the latest UK Unemployment figures, which came out better than expected at 4.3%, with average earnings also rising by 2.8%. Due to average wages now almost being in line with inflation, the markets started to factor in a prospective interest rate hike, which according to many analysts opinions would be in line with the figures released.

Therefore, yesterday’s Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision and subsequent monetary policy statement took on even greater significance and the markets reacted accordingly. Despite the central bank keeping rates on hold at 0.5%, two members of the BoE voted in favour of a rate hike this month.

Despite the vote being 7-2 against, it is now far more likely that the central bank will raise rates over the coming months, especially when you consider BoE governor Mark Carney’s comments regarding the subject, which were bullish based on an improved economic performance by the UK.

The run of good data this week also included UK Retail Sales figures, which were released yesterday morning. These came out MoM at 0.8%, which was well above the markets predicted figure of 0.4%. There was also an annual increase to 1.5%, so overall it has certainly been a positive week for UK economic data and the Pound has found support across the board due to this.

However, a word of caution must be heeded to those clients holding Sterling, as this is not the first time the pound has threatened to make significant inroads against the other major currencies. Despite the fact there may be more substance to the recent increase in value, there are still many unanswered question, in terms of how the UK economy will be shaped and perform when it goes it alone.

At a first glance, it seems as though the UK have had to give up a lot of ground to the EU in order to move talks forward, details of which will become clearer over the coming weeks. If the UK is under heavy restrictions during the transitional period, then this could restrict economic growth and opportunities for UK business’s and this in turn would likely heap pressure back on the Pound.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Sterling Euro close to the best rate this year – What will tomorrow bring?

GBP/EUR exchange rates are now close to the best levels we have seen so far in 2017.

This is due to a number of positive economic and political data releases so far this week and we still have more to come too.

On Monday we had news that the EU and U.K had potentially come up with an agreement on a transition period which was seen as positive by the markets.

Yesterday we had inflation data out for the U.K and this morning we had news that unemployment figures had improved slightly, with most notably average earnings increasing to a level that is now back above inflation.

The reason this is key is that inflation has been above average earnings for a long time now, and that means that the price of goods and services is going up at a faster rate than peoples earnings, meaning the general consumer has less money in their pocket.

Tomorrow we see the start of the latest EU summit and brexit will no doubt be on the agenda so be wary of sharp Sterling movements at any point in the next 24 hours.

On top of this we have the latest Bank of England interest rate decision due out at midday. It would be a surprise to see a change in interest rates this time around, although after all of the positive news I wouldn’t totally rule it out, and the monetary policy statement shortly after should give us an indication on future plans, which would more than likely be confirming that they will be looking at a rate hike in May should nothing happen tomorrow.

If you have an exchange to carry out involving Pounds into Euros, or Euros into Pounds then I can help you achieve not only the best rates of exchange for this but I can help you with the timing of your transfer too.

Feel free  to contact me (Daniel Wright) by email for a free quote and discussion about your transaction on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to contact you personally.

 

 

Pound Euro rates hit 2 week high after Eurozone inflation data (Tom Holian)

The Pound has as of this afternoon hit the best rate to buy Euros all month following the release of lower than expected Eurozone inflation data published early this morning.

Inflation fell to 1.1% year on year compared to the expected 1.2% and this has caused the Euro to weaken against both the Pound and the US Dollar. Inflation has been a very hot topic for central banks recently and the European Central Bank in particular.

Earlier this month the ECB suggested that it would be looking to possibly bring their current QE Programme to an end towards the end of this year so this morning’s fall in inflation may mean that they will continue to pump money into the market and this is why the Euro has fallen to a 2 week low vs the Pound.

As we go into next week there are a number of key announcements that could affect Sterling Euro exchange rates. UK inflation is the first important release with the latest Consumer Price Index for February released on Tuesday morning.

Expectations are for 2.9% which is still above the target of 2% so another high release will put pressure on the Bank of England to increase interest rates in the near future.

Indeed, the latest odds are 75% in favour of an interest rate hike coming in May. Therefore, I think we could see the Pound rising early next week. This will be closely followed by UK unemployment data on Wednesday and the latest Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday.

We end next week with the EU summit and as this will cover the Brexit topic I think we could see a huge amount of volatility on GBPEUR exchange rates.

Therefore, if you’re considering making a currency transfer in the near future then feel free to contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you. Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rates.

Email me directly Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

 

 

ECB’s inflation concerns weaken the Euro, will GBP/EUR manage to breach 1.13 anytime soon? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate breached 1.13 today before falling back into the later 1.12’s.

Some bearish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi first thing this morning put the Euro on the back foot throughout the day, although it does appear to have some support around the 1.13 mark.

Draghi stated that there needs to be further evidence that inflation dynamics are moving in the right direction before the ECB will consider ending its extensive quantitative easing programme which appears to have disappointed the markets.

Aside from this issue data this morning showed that there have been contractions in EU employment, and industrial production figures also disappointed out of the EU as figures showed much weaker performance in January than expected.

The Pound on the other hand has been boosted recently as fears surrounding the Brexit and the transitional deal have subdued somewhat. I do think that those planning on making a currency exchange involving the Pound should be aware that details of the transitional agreement are due to go public within the next 10 days so it’ll be interesting to see how GBP exchange perform in the wake of that news.

There is a quiet end to the week scheduled for UK economic data so it’s likely that politics will remain the main mover of GBPEUR exchange rates. If you would like to be notified should there be a spike between GBP/EUR, do make me aware.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

EU summit to have major influence on GBPEUR exchange rates

Yesterday GBPEUR exchange rates spiked close to 1.13 off the back of the Spring budget update. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, as expected, announced that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) have increased growth forecasts for the next 12 months up to 1.5%. Interestingly the OBR actually only cut the growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.4% at the Autumn budget, which shows the UK economy has performed well over the last 6 months.

For people that are converting pounds into euros or euros into pounds, over the last 3 months exchange rates have been range bound by roughly 3 cents. On a daily basis we are receiving positive and negative news from the UK and EU. For example, Brexit updates are varied, European growth is fantastic however there is a concern due to the Italian election result, so it just shows why GBPEUR exchange rates are up and down like a yoyo.

As a currency trader, it is my responsibility to keep my clients informed about market movement. For most people that are converting GBPEUR, they will be working throughout the day and do not have the time to watch exchange rates and that’s where I come in. If you want help in regards to timings and also to receive fantastic exchange rates feel free to email me directly drl@currencies.co.uk.

Looking ahead the EU summit next week has the potential to have a major influence on GBPEUR exchange rate. The UK had planned to have had the transitional deal sorted before the summit therefore we should expect a few announcements surrounding the transition over the next 7 days. Furthermore, exchange rates will fluctuate next week and it all depends on what is actually said. I’m optimistic that the EU will allow the UK to start discussing trade early next month and therefore I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPEUR reach the higher end of the 3 cent range we have been experiencing over the last 3 months.

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Struggling to Sustain any Improvements (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates are floating around 1.12, with Sterling still struggling to make any significant impact against its EUR counterpart.

The Pound came under pressure early this week following poor UK Services data, which came our under market expectation. This inadvertently boosted the EUR’s value, which has already been well supported of late.

Some mixed Eurozone data helped curb any significant losses for GBP but as per the recent trend, every time the Pound has taken a step forward it has hit a wall of resistance and retracted almost as quickly.

With so much emphasis on Brexit negotiations at present, it was always likely that this rather than individual economic data releases are going to continue to drive market sentiment and ultimately investor confidence over the coming months.

The media seems to be cementing this negative perception, with any positive report followed by two or three negative ones and this is one of the main reasons the Pound is struggling to make any sustainable gains against the Euro.

Of course, the Eurozone economy itself has outperformed almost every expectation over the past 18 months, with the European Central Bank (ECB) and its president Mario Draghi lauding their current monetary policy programme as its saviour.

When you look at the UK & Eurozone economies and the current prosperity and outlook for each, it is easier to understand why the pound is facing an uphill struggle at present.

With UK economic data at a minimum this week, tomorrow’s Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could hold extra week. Any figure above the 0.6% expected growth could put further pressure on Sterling

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Factors impacting GBPEUR exchange rates

As always Brexit negotiations continue to drive GBPEUR exchange rates and at present GBPEUR has reached a key support level. Over the last 8 weeks every time GBPEUR has reached 1.12 we have seen the pound strengthen against the euro? The question is will this trend continue this month?

Negotiations are on going and UK Prime Minister Theresa May is asking for a bespoke trade deal with the EU, however Michel Barnier keeps reiterating that a bespoke trade deal is another phrase for cherry picking. If the transitional deal is reached this month and trade talks start early next, I expect the pound will make gains against the euro and reach the highs we were experiencing earlier in the year.

Politics in Europe are also having an impact on GPBEUR exchange rates. The good news for the Euros is that Angela Merkal has secured her position as Chancellor of Germany. However with a hung parliament in Italy at the moment and far right party 5-Star receiving the most amount of votes, people in Italy are questioning whether they should have a referendum like the UK. This story has the potential to have a considerable impact on euro exchange rates, nevertheless with 5 Star stating they will not work with any other party, it looks like a coalition could be formed by Northern League and Forza Italia.

This week the key data releases to look out for is the ECB’s interest rate decision Thursday afternoon. Interest rates are set to remain on hold, however any hint to the tapering of the quantitative easing program could strengthen the euro. The ECB have showed concern recently that the euro is overvalued due to the devaluation of the US dollar. Therefore I expect the statement by President Mario Draghi to not give to much away and therefore the euro to remain buoyant and against the pound.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR exchange rates feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you and the process of using the company I work for drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

UK politics to dictate GBPEUR exchange rates this week

Towards the end of the week, I am expected major volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates and we could see the upper or lower resistance levels tested. GBPEUR exchange rates have been range bound between the high 1.13 and low 1.11s over the last 8 weeks. UK Prime Minister is to hold talks with the full cabinet on Thursday and then will address the UK public on Friday in Newcastle.

Reports are suggesting there is a threat that 15-20 Tory rebel MPs could actually defeat Theresa May and her approach to leave the Custom Union by joining with Jeremy Corbyn. This must be a serious worry for the PM and personally I cannot see it happening, but it just shows how tricky the meeting will be on Thursday. If there is no agreement what can she actually say on Friday that we don’t already know?

This Thursday Theresa May will meet with the full cabinet to discuss Brexit, quite similar to the meeting last Thursday at the Chequers retreat. However Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has waded in and stated that he will not allow Conservative MPs to ‘water down’ the plan that was agreed at the Chequers meeting last Thursday.

You have to feel for the Prime Minister as it seems she has an impossible task. Half of the country want to remain half want to leave and this seems the case with her Conservative party. Therefore I expect to major volatility with GBPEUR exchange rates towards the end of the week and it could go either way. If you are not willing to gamble on the releases then I would recommend getting in touch today and I will offer you our live buy or sell price.

My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk. Typical clients I look after are people that own businesses or people that are buying or selling properties either in the UK or Europe.

 

GBP/EUR has an up and down day – What does the week ahead hold?

Sterling started the day off on the front foot against most majors, getting up to almost 1.14 against the Euro only to drop away again over the course of the afternoon.

With a positive vibe around current Brexit talks and the chances of an interest rate hike in May for the U.K increasing, there are many reasons why investors would have an interest in Sterling once again.

Although Sterling has gained ground this year against most major currencies, it has struggled to make much ground up on the Euro, and comments from head of the European Central Bank earlier today suggested that Sterling will not make a huge impact on the Euro in the near term, not due to poor economic data from the Eurozone anyway.

Draghi mentioned that he felt growth in the area at present was stronger than he had anticipated, that he expects labour market conditions to continue to improve and that the relationship between inflation and growth had remained intact.

All in all this is fairly positive news for the Eurozone and this led to a little Euro strength, bringing GBP/EUR exchange rates back down below 1.1350 at the time of writing this post.

The most notable day of economic data this week will be on Friday, where we have Prime Minister Theresa May due to speak and address Britain on the current Brexit approach and situation. Investors and speculators will be hanging off of every work that is spoken throughout this for any hints on current plans or notable progression with talks.

This may lead to a volatile day for Sterling against the Euro so if you have an exchange to make in the near future be sure to keep a keen eye on the markets over the course of Friday.

If you are looking to buy any Euros with Sterling or should you need to bring a large sum of Euros back into Sterling then it is well worth getting in touch with me directly.

I can help you both in terms of timing your transfer, keeping you up to date with any spikes in the market and of course getting you the best rate when you come to book the deal out.

For a free, no obligation discussion on how I can help you with this important decision please feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch with you personally to see how I can help.