Tag Archives: currency transfer

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Struggling to Make an Impact Above 1.15 (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has held its been position against the EUR of late but so far has struggled to make any impact above 1.15.

The EUR continues to find support around this threshold, as it has done every time it has been tested over recent months.

There is no doubt the Pound has gained a foothold following a strong run of UK economic data and progress in Brexit talks but is the Pound likely to break through the current levels any time soon?

Whilst it is impossible to predict exactly how the markets will evolve, any clients with an upcoming Sterling currency exchange to execute should be wary about assuming that the Pound’s upward will last. Despite the UK and EU agreeing on terms for a transitional period ahead of the UK’s inevitable Brexit, this agreement has simply kept the ‘wolf from the door’ for another couple of years.

There are still many unanswered question regarding the UK’s future trade status both with our European neighbours and globally and as such I feel the Pound is still likely to be handicapped over the coming months, at least to some extent.

Looking at the Eurozone itself and its economy continues to perform admirably, with the European Central Bank (ECB) likely to tie up their current monetary policy programme before the end of this year. If this dopes happen it is a show of strength and again it means the ECB no longer feel the Eurozone economy need propping up.

In the short-term UK data tomorrow in the form of Manufacturing & Industrial Production figures is expected to be mixed, so it unlikely the Pound will receive much support following these releases, unless of course they come out above the markets predicted result.

If you do have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

GBP/EUR – When shall I move? (Daniel Johnson)

Why will GBP/EUR not breach 1.15 and remain above 1.15?

Sterling has made significant improvements against the majority of major currencies of late. Breaking resistance points against both the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar, 1.80 and 1.40 respectively. Against the Euro however it only breached the key resistance point of 1.15 for a very short period.

1.15 has been the absolute peak of the market, this level only being breached on a few occasions and every time it quickly retracts. I have been saying for months that if you have to move short term trade if the market sits in the 1.14s.

There has been several catalyst for Sterling’s recent improvement. We have seen retail sales figures come in well above expectations. Previous readings came in at – 0.2% and the prediction was a rise to 0.4%. They landed at 0.8% for February.

We also saw average wage growth move much closer to parity with inflation, which is a true sign of a healthy economy. An interest rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) was already highly probable in May, but this may force the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) hand.

It was also announced that the UK would have access to single market during the Brexit transitional period, which is very good news indeed.

If ever there was a reasoning of late for GBP/EUR to break 1.15 and stay above 1.15 these were it. What gives me worries is that it didn’t.  I think it means we are going to have to have some pretty significant news to do so. Perhaps this could come in the form of news on the Irish border situation. which is at present a major point of contention in Brexit negotiations.

Personally, I am still of the opinion if you have to move short term do so in the 1.14s.

If you have a currency requirement I would b happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

Could the Pound break 1.15 against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has been performing well of late against the Euro and has briefly touched 1.15 during March and I expect to see it break past that resistance level during the course of this month.

The EU transitional deal appears to have been agreed and although the Irish border issue still remains unresolved I think we could still see the Pound make further gains against the Euro.

UK Services PMI data is due out at 930am this morning with the expectation for 50.8 so any deviation could cause movement for GBPEUR exchange rates.

Indeed, if the data is positive I think this could see the market break past 1.15 later today.

The political problems in Italy appear to also be holding back the Euro from making any gains vs Sterling. Yesterday, the Eurozone unemployment level dropped to its lowest level in 9 years and with Eurozone inflation rising this could provide support to the European Central Bank to consider ending their QE programme later this year.

In theory this would usually strengthen the single currency but it did not have the expected effect which suggests to me that the political uncertainty in Italy is causing the Euro to wobble.

At the moment the Five Star Movement and the Lega Party have still not yet concluded the talks so Italy remains in a hung parliament which is never a positive for the currency involved.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry for 15 years I am confident of being able to offer you both bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your currency transfer.

For further information or a free quote then please send me an email detailing your requirement and I can look at proposing a strategy for you when buying or selling Euros.

I look forward to hearing from you

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Recovery Softens (Matthew Vassallo)

UK manufacturing data came in slightly better than expected yesterday but GBP/EUR rates have remained fairly flat this week.

The Pound reached a high of 1.1473 today before retracting slightly but has struggled to make any impact above 1.15 against its EUR counterpart.

The catalyst for Sterling’s recent improvement was confirmation that UK & EU have all but agreed on the terms for a Brexit transitional deal. This positive spike has softened over the past week, with the long-term uncertainty around the UK economy still handicapping any major sustainable advances for Sterling.

Whilst the recent news has helped to alleviate many of the concerns that the UK was going to be left in a state of economic limbo following our separation, investors remain wary about the UK’s position post Brexit. A strong Eurozone economy is also helping to support the single currency and as such the EUR has found plenty of support around the current levels.

Despite a positive run of UK economic data the Pound cannot seem to break free from its shackles and with trade talks underway between the UK & EU, could we see further pressure on the Pound over the coming weeks?

With the Bank of England (BoE) giving indications that they may raise interest rates over the coming months, there is certainly a reason for those clients holding Sterling positions to feel more optimistic than in recent times.

However, with many unanswered questions and only fragile confidence in the UK economy, it may be prudent to protect any short-term GBP/EUR currency positions. This is not the first time the pound has threatened to make significant inroads against the other major currencies. Despite the fact there may be more substance to the recent increase in value, there are still many unanswered question, in terms of how the UK economy will be shaped and perform when it goes it alone.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Pound close to best rate to buy Euros since May 2017 (Tom Holian)

The latest round of the Brexit talks continued focusing on the Irish border issue which remains uncertain. The transitional deal was agreed last week but the Irish border will be a key topic that is likely to remain ongoing.

With trade talks due later this year many are hoping that the Brexit terms and conditions may be agreed by October but at the moment, in my opinion, that appears very unlikely.

Brexit Secretary David Davis has been rather positive in recent times suggesting that things are looking much better between the UK and the European Union.

The Pound has recently hit 1.15 against the Euro after the Bank of England announced a split of 7-2 in favour of keeping interest rates on hold which shows that there is a growing appetite for a UK interest rate hike coming in the near future.

At the moment there is roughly a 75% chance of an interest rate hike coming in May and this is what caused the Pound to rise to the best rate to buy Euros since May 2017 creating some excellent opportunities to send money to Europe to pay for a foreign property.

However, all is not rosy when we look at the high street in the UK.

Although Retail Sales have been going very well recently the issue appears to be that consumers are buying online rather than purchasing goods in store and this has been reflected in the demise of New Look, Toys R Us and Select.

I think we may see a small rally for GBPEUR rates towards the end of this week which are known as month end flows so it may be worth looking to buying Euros prior to the Easter break.

If you would like a free quote when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly. I work for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers so a quick email could save you a lot of money on the difference when making a currency purchase.

Email me and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Forecast – Has the Pound’s Recent Run Come to an End? (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have dropped back below 1.14 this morning, with the Pound’s positive trend cooling over the past 24 hours.

Those clients holding Sterling positions would have been watching last week’s movements with increased interest, as the Pound made significant gains across the board.

Sterling’s value was boosted against its Euro counterpart, following a strong run of UK economic data. Positive Unemployment figures, strong Retail Sales numbers and an indication from the Bank of England (BoE) that they may look to raise interest rates over the coming months, all helped to drive investor confidence and the Pound benefited as a result.

This positive sentiment helped pushed GBP/EUR above 1.15, which were some of the best levels seen in the past 12 months.

However, as so often has been the case in recent times this spike has been difficult for the Pound to sustain. Whilst there is no doubt Sterling has found a foothold against the EUR since the turn of the year, it is struggling to make any sustained impact above 1.15 against the EUR.

This slight downturn since the start of the week has come about despite this excellent run of economic data and also an agreement in principal, regarding the stats of the UK during the Brexit transitional period.

Whilst there are still some details to be ironed out, it seems as though the UK will have full access to the single market & customs union. This will help to alleviate any immediate concerns regarding trade deals outside of the single bloc. It will also give the UK a further two years grace, in order to put measures in place to soften our exit, when it finally comes to “cutting the cord”.

Whilst this news was taken as a huge positive and allowed the Pound to break through 1.15 against the EUR, it has not manged to sustain this improvement and to me this is the key point.

Whilst the Pound is able to find support in short bursts, the current conditions and long-term market confidence in the UK economy remains fragile.

This is why clients who have a GBP currency exchange to execute should be looking for short-term market opportunities in my opinion, rather than gambling on longer-term improvements.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Will GBPEUR hit 1.15 again?

The pound to Euro rate hit 1.1520 on the highs yesterday as the Bank of England released their latest meeting summary and interest rate decision. The pound spiked up to this level presenting some of the best opportunities to buy Euros since May 2017. Will this level be hit again and what can clients looking to buy Euros with pounds do to capitalise?

The rates move very quickly and to buy at the highs you need to be prepared. This means highlighting your situation to us here so that we can monitor the rates and track levels for you, this might sounds expensive but it isn’t, it is free. We make our money from any trades we do but can offer an exchange rate which we are positive will save you money over other sources of currency.

If you would like to make any kind of comparison I would be more than happy to speak to you to provide some quotes and discuss the forecast for GBPEUR longer-term.Whilst the positive news from the Bank of England bodes well for the future on GBPEUR the Euro is very strong, the biggest thorn in the side of Euro buyers with pounds is the strong Euro.

To help my clients trade at the higher levels we can offer a Limit order which is an automatic order which will trigger at a pre-determined rate once it is hit. I would suggest an order at 1.15 in the coming weeks may well be hit, if you wish to get an update on the rates please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound to Euro rate hits a 7-week high before BoE meeting (Joseph Wright)

Sterling has been strengthening throughout the week after news of the Brexit transitional deal being agreed has been met well by the markets.

It will be interesting to see whether the GBP/EUR pair can break above 1.15, because at the moment they are trading comfortably in the 1.14’s and these are around the highest levels for the pair going back as far as June. The 1.15 mark appears to be a ceiling for the pair so far, but there are a number of potential market movers that could push the pair higher.

Later today the start of the EU Summit in Brussels will begin, and the Brexit is expected to be a key talking point for those attending. As previously mentioned the most recent Brexit news boosted markets but it will be interesting to see whether any further commentary this week will affect the GBP/EUR rate. I would imagine that suit sentiments change the Pound will fall as it’s trading at the top end of its current range.

The increase in wage growth has also increased the chances of a rate hike from the Bank of England later this year, with many economists pencilling in May as the next time the Bank of England will opt to make the adjustment.

Some economists even believe that there could be two rate hikes which would most likely result in a stronger Pound as well.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound Euro Exchange Hits 5 Week High (Tom Holian)

Sterling has hit the best rate to buy Euros in over five weeks after it was announced that the terms of a transitional deal has been agreed.

Brexit Secretary David Davis and EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier have agreed the legal text for the transition and this helped the Pound to climb to these recent highs against the single currency providing some excellent opportunities to send money to the continent.

The reason why this has helped the Pound at least for the time being is that it means that we should get some stability during the period between March 2019 and December 2020 as it will mean Britain will continue operating under EU rule during this period.

There is still however the ongoing issue of what will happen with the Irish border issue and until we get some clarity this could continue to weigh on Sterling.

Later this morning UK inflation is due to be released and this could cause a lot of movement for Pound vs Euro exchange rates ahead of the interest rate decision due on Thursday.

At the moment there is approximately a 75% chance of an interest rate hike coming in May so if inflation remains high this could add further support for an interest rate hike to come.

UK Unemployment figures are due out tomorrow morning with Average Earnings published at the same time.

Unemployment levels are close to their lowest level since records began but Average Earnings have been struggling to keep up with inflation.

However, if wage growth increases tomorrow this could also give support for an interest rate hike to the Bank of England so I think we could see GBPEUR exchange rates go in an upwards direction.

If you would like a free quote when exchanging Euros compared to using your own bank then feel free to contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

GBPEUR rises back above 1.13, where next?

The pound to Euro exchange rate is now looking much more attractive for Euro buyers although there are some fairly large warning signs ahead. The EU Summit next week has plenty of potential to be an upset for the pound as we already know much of the news to be expected. There is a real belief that the pound will now rise on the news of a transitional deal however, maybe this has already happened?

Exchange rates usually move when there is new news or information to be learned. It is the changing fortunes of the currency markets and the global economy which will shape the developments on exchange rates. This is important for next week’s EU Summit because much of the news is know or ‘priced in’ to current levels on the pound. Therefore, any news which is merely a confirmation of what was already planned and expected will do little to move the market.

Having said that, next week could be a choppy one for GBPEUR on many fronts as we have new news on the Brexit with the EU Summit, plus the latest information from the Bank of England with the UK interest rate decision. There had been much speculation that the UK will be raising interest rates later this year, any changes in sentiment (new information) could see movement on sterling. I would expect a more choppy period now on GBPEUR, perhaps seeing levels trading in the 1.11-1.14 range for the next week.

Will we break out of the 1.11-1.15 we have occupied in 2018? I wouldn’t expect so but if anything was going to make it likely, the raft of news next week makes it much more likely!

For up to date information to help you with the planning and execution of any exchanges please contact me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you and I look forward to hearing from you.

ECB’s inflation concerns weaken the Euro, will GBP/EUR manage to breach 1.13 anytime soon? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate breached 1.13 today before falling back into the later 1.12’s.

Some bearish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi first thing this morning put the Euro on the back foot throughout the day, although it does appear to have some support around the 1.13 mark.

Draghi stated that there needs to be further evidence that inflation dynamics are moving in the right direction before the ECB will consider ending its extensive quantitative easing programme which appears to have disappointed the markets.

Aside from this issue data this morning showed that there have been contractions in EU employment, and industrial production figures also disappointed out of the EU as figures showed much weaker performance in January than expected.

The Pound on the other hand has been boosted recently as fears surrounding the Brexit and the transitional deal have subdued somewhat. I do think that those planning on making a currency exchange involving the Pound should be aware that details of the transitional agreement are due to go public within the next 10 days so it’ll be interesting to see how GBP exchange perform in the wake of that news.

There is a quiet end to the week scheduled for UK economic data so it’s likely that politics will remain the main mover of GBPEUR exchange rates. If you would like to be notified should there be a spike between GBP/EUR, do make me aware.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

EU summit to have major influence on GBPEUR exchange rates

Yesterday GBPEUR exchange rates spiked close to 1.13 off the back of the Spring budget update. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, as expected, announced that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) have increased growth forecasts for the next 12 months up to 1.5%. Interestingly the OBR actually only cut the growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.4% at the Autumn budget, which shows the UK economy has performed well over the last 6 months.

For people that are converting pounds into euros or euros into pounds, over the last 3 months exchange rates have been range bound by roughly 3 cents. On a daily basis we are receiving positive and negative news from the UK and EU. For example, Brexit updates are varied, European growth is fantastic however there is a concern due to the Italian election result, so it just shows why GBPEUR exchange rates are up and down like a yoyo.

As a currency trader, it is my responsibility to keep my clients informed about market movement. For most people that are converting GBPEUR, they will be working throughout the day and do not have the time to watch exchange rates and that’s where I come in. If you want help in regards to timings and also to receive fantastic exchange rates feel free to email me directly drl@currencies.co.uk.

Looking ahead the EU summit next week has the potential to have a major influence on GBPEUR exchange rate. The UK had planned to have had the transitional deal sorted before the summit therefore we should expect a few announcements surrounding the transition over the next 7 days. Furthermore, exchange rates will fluctuate next week and it all depends on what is actually said. I’m optimistic that the EU will allow the UK to start discussing trade early next month and therefore I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPEUR reach the higher end of the 3 cent range we have been experiencing over the last 3 months.

Pound Euro Exchange Rates- Factors to influence GBPEUR (Tom Holian)

The Pound has had a very interesting day today against the Euro following the European Central Bank’s latest monetary policy meeting.

European interest rates were kept on hold as expected but ECB President Mario Draghi suggested that we could be seeing an end to the Quantitative Easing policy in the future.

The ECB said that QE may finish by the end of the year which was seen as hawkish and this sent GBPEUR exchange rates to a 3 month low which is great news for anyone looking to sell Euros to buy Sterling.

Indeed, the EURUSD currency pair also hit a 3 week high. However, Draghi was not all positive and this caused a bit of a bounce for the Pound vs the single currency later this afternoon.

As we head into tomorrow morning the UK releases it latest set of Industrial and Manufacturing Production data for January as well as the latest set of Trade Balance figures for the same period.

Depending on how the data comes out this could cause a lot of volatility for Pound vs Euro exchange rates as we end the week.

Later on Friday afternoon the US will announce the latest Non-Farm Payroll data which measures new jobs created in the world’s leading economy outside of the agricultural industry.

Generally speaking if the data is positive in the US this results in US Dollar strength and Euro weakness so if the data provides evidence that the US is doing well this could see GBPEUR exchange rates go in an upwards direction.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then feel free to contact me for further information or a free quote.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you better exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your transfer by keeping you updated.

Email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Struggling to Sustain any Improvements (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates are floating around 1.12, with Sterling still struggling to make any significant impact against its EUR counterpart.

The Pound came under pressure early this week following poor UK Services data, which came our under market expectation. This inadvertently boosted the EUR’s value, which has already been well supported of late.

Some mixed Eurozone data helped curb any significant losses for GBP but as per the recent trend, every time the Pound has taken a step forward it has hit a wall of resistance and retracted almost as quickly.

With so much emphasis on Brexit negotiations at present, it was always likely that this rather than individual economic data releases are going to continue to drive market sentiment and ultimately investor confidence over the coming months.

The media seems to be cementing this negative perception, with any positive report followed by two or three negative ones and this is one of the main reasons the Pound is struggling to make any sustainable gains against the Euro.

Of course, the Eurozone economy itself has outperformed almost every expectation over the past 18 months, with the European Central Bank (ECB) and its president Mario Draghi lauding their current monetary policy programme as its saviour.

When you look at the UK & Eurozone economies and the current prosperity and outlook for each, it is easier to understand why the pound is facing an uphill struggle at present.

With UK economic data at a minimum this week, tomorrow’s Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could hold extra week. Any figure above the 0.6% expected growth could put further pressure on Sterling

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Sterling drops as Brexit talks take centre stage, will GBP/EUR drop below 1.12? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has dropped this afternoon, as its emerged that draft guidelines on a trade agreement between Britain and the EU are published on Wednesday.

Donald Tusk, the chairman of EU leaders was in London to discuss the Brexit negotiations with UK Prime Minister, Theresa May recently. It will be him that presents the draft guidelines tomorrow so those interested in how the GBP/EUR rate is performing should be aware of this.

In the morning there will be GDP figures released out of the EU which also hold the potential to move markets. 0.6% is expected on a quarterly basis and 2.7% annually so expect any deviations from these figures to result in movement for the pair.

Then on Thursday at 12.45pm the ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision will be announced. No change is expected but those monitoring the rates should follow the statement at 1.30pm as any reference to future monetary policy may result in movement for the GBP/EUR pair.

It’s data this that can move the markets and a bout of poor data for the Pound is likely to see the Pound dip into the 1.11’s and consolidate there. The rate has dipped into the 1.11’s at times today so those with plans involving the pair should be aware of this.

If you would like to register your interest with me due to planning an upcoming currency transfer, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Factors impacting GBPEUR exchange rates

As always Brexit negotiations continue to drive GBPEUR exchange rates and at present GBPEUR has reached a key support level. Over the last 8 weeks every time GBPEUR has reached 1.12 we have seen the pound strengthen against the euro? The question is will this trend continue this month?

Negotiations are on going and UK Prime Minister Theresa May is asking for a bespoke trade deal with the EU, however Michel Barnier keeps reiterating that a bespoke trade deal is another phrase for cherry picking. If the transitional deal is reached this month and trade talks start early next, I expect the pound will make gains against the euro and reach the highs we were experiencing earlier in the year.

Politics in Europe are also having an impact on GPBEUR exchange rates. The good news for the Euros is that Angela Merkal has secured her position as Chancellor of Germany. However with a hung parliament in Italy at the moment and far right party 5-Star receiving the most amount of votes, people in Italy are questioning whether they should have a referendum like the UK. This story has the potential to have a considerable impact on euro exchange rates, nevertheless with 5 Star stating they will not work with any other party, it looks like a coalition could be formed by Northern League and Forza Italia.

This week the key data releases to look out for is the ECB’s interest rate decision Thursday afternoon. Interest rates are set to remain on hold, however any hint to the tapering of the quantitative easing program could strengthen the euro. The ECB have showed concern recently that the euro is overvalued due to the devaluation of the US dollar. Therefore I expect the statement by President Mario Draghi to not give to much away and therefore the euro to remain buoyant and against the pound.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR exchange rates feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you and the process of using the company I work for drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

GBP/EUR Rates Fall Following Brexit Report (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates dropped sharply yesterday afternoon, with the Pound falling back below 1.13.

Once again it seems as though last week’s positive spike was yet another false dawn, with investors risk appetite for the Pound seemingly evaporating.

The Pound came under pressure following a report that the first EU Brexit draft released UK government, has not been received well by the EU or their chief negotiator Michel Barnier.

The Irish border issue remains one of the key sticking points and the reality is that until this is agreed, there will be no transitional period and no soft Brexit.

This has caused investors to panic and pull their funds away from Sterling, which has once again taken two steps back, having been fairly well supported prior to this.

Yesterday’s dropped was a continuation of recent trends, with the Pound seemingly hitting a brick wall once again. Investor confidence in the UK economy and ultimately the Pound is being driven by sentiments around Brexit and the current hiatus and continuous uncertainty, is handicapping any major advances for the Pound.

Despite last week’s upturn if we scratch below the surface all is not well behind the scenes. Reports of a splintered Tory government are not new but seem to be gathering momentum on almost a daily basis now. UK Prime Minister Theresa May was very bullish in her recent public address and her behind closed door meeting with senior Conservative MP’s last week was also meant to be a success.

However, this seems now not to be the case following a report in the Times earlier this week, which indicated three separate cabinet ministers warned May that the current government could collapse this year. Tory rebels could look to back Labours plans for full membership of the customs union, once the UK finally separates itself from the single bloc.

This goes against the PM’s current stance and as such, investors may not react positively to her speech on Friday even if she remains bullish about the UK’s current Brexit position.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

UK politics to dictate GBPEUR exchange rates this week

Towards the end of the week, I am expected major volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates and we could see the upper or lower resistance levels tested. GBPEUR exchange rates have been range bound between the high 1.13 and low 1.11s over the last 8 weeks. UK Prime Minister is to hold talks with the full cabinet on Thursday and then will address the UK public on Friday in Newcastle.

Reports are suggesting there is a threat that 15-20 Tory rebel MPs could actually defeat Theresa May and her approach to leave the Custom Union by joining with Jeremy Corbyn. This must be a serious worry for the PM and personally I cannot see it happening, but it just shows how tricky the meeting will be on Thursday. If there is no agreement what can she actually say on Friday that we don’t already know?

This Thursday Theresa May will meet with the full cabinet to discuss Brexit, quite similar to the meeting last Thursday at the Chequers retreat. However Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has waded in and stated that he will not allow Conservative MPs to ‘water down’ the plan that was agreed at the Chequers meeting last Thursday.

You have to feel for the Prime Minister as it seems she has an impossible task. Half of the country want to remain half want to leave and this seems the case with her Conservative party. Therefore I expect to major volatility with GBPEUR exchange rates towards the end of the week and it could go either way. If you are not willing to gamble on the releases then I would recommend getting in touch today and I will offer you our live buy or sell price.

My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk. Typical clients I look after are people that own businesses or people that are buying or selling properties either in the UK or Europe.

 

Will the release of the Brexit plan result in a stronger Pound? (Joseph Wright)

The negotiations between the UK and EU regarding the Brexit have been heating up recently, and we’re shortly expected to know what the UK’s stance is.

Just yesterday UK Prime Minister, Theresa May held emergency talks with senior cabinet members behind closed doors. The talks took place at her country residence, Chequers and one MP told the press that she ‘played a blinder’. Within the next month we’re expected to know what the Brexit plans are so I think although the markets are quite calm at the moment, we could see a lot of movement for the Pound to Euro rate in the next month.

Next week Theresa May will also be giving a speech again outlining her stance on Brexit talks so far and plans moving forward.

Although economic data is once again having an effect on the Pounds value I think that politics is likely to be the main driver of GBP exchange rates in the current climate, which makes it harder to judge where the Pound will move next and when.

If you would like to be notified in the event of a major spike for the Pound in either direction, do feel free to register your interest with me as working on a trading floor allows us to react in the wake of a major move.

Later today there will be the release of EU Inflation data which could move the markets depending on how the figure comes out.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Which direction will GBPEUR take next?

The pound is looking better supported against all currencies and this includes the Euro which it is still nudging some of the better rates in the last 6 months against. If you wish to buy Euros with pounds the good news for sterling is not enough, the Euro is very strong and Euro buyers need some weakness on the part of the Euro get a better rate.

This morning we have the latest UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures which will give us some insight into the pace of growth for the UK economy at present. Overall impressions over the outlook on the GBPEUR rate really are mixed, with both currencies benefiting from improved economic data sets.

Politically, both countries are set on uncertain courses, the UK is struggling with Brexit and many Eurozone countries are feeling political pressures. The biggest concerns stem from the Italian election next weekend, there are a number of far-right and anti-EU and anti-Euro politicians in the running for the top jobs in government.

Despite concerns politically in the Eurozone there are probably greater concerns for the UK with the fears over the worst outlook on Brexit hindering the pound. Whilst sterling is stronger lately as we get some more positive news on what the final deal will be for the UK and the EU, we do still have a long way to go for the pound to really find its feet.

If you need to buy Euros with pounds we are only 2 cents off the best rates to buy since May last year, this is a very good point to note. With GBPEUR looking like it was headed to near parity or one for one, it is very encouraging to see the rates back at this level which whilst compared to overall levels in the last few years are still low, do represent a significant improvement from the lowest points.

If you need to buy or sell Euros and wish for any information on the best timing and appropriate strategies to maximise your deal, please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk to get a full overview of the upcoming events and strategy on the best rates of exchange.