Tag Archives: currency transfer

Could interest rates be going up this year and the impact on the Pound vs the Euro

The Pound has experienced a good period this week when many expected it to come under a huge amount of pressure caused by the farce of the EU Withdrawal Bill discussions.

We saw members of the SNP walk out on the talks and typically the instability would have caused the Pound to suffer but it appeared as though everyone was waiting for UK Retail Sales as well as the latest ECB meeting.

On Thursday UK Retail Sales came out much better than expected compared to the estimate and this led to the Pound starting the day off very positively against the Euro.

However, the main improvements came from the announcements made by the European Central Bank who confirmed that they would be ending their QE Programme at the end of the year.

The Euro fell on the news as the ECB also cut its growth forecast for this year and suggested that any interest rate hike would not be coming for a very long time and this has encouraged a big sell off for the Euro particularly against the Pound.

Indeed, GBPEUR exchange rates had their biggest positive daily movement all year on Thursday.

Next week the main day to influence GBPEUR exchange rates is likely to come on Thursday when the Bank of England hold their next monetary policy meeting.

The split last month was 7-2 in favour of keeping interest rates on hold and with Retail Sales suprising the markets this could provide some support in favour of a rate hike coming earlier than the market currently expects.

Therefore, if you’re in the process of buying Euros in the short term then keep a close eye out on Thursday as this could cause a lot of movement for the Pound vs the Euro.

If you would like to save money when buying or selling Euros compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Makes Gains Following Positive UK Retail Sales Figures (Matthew Vassallo)

The Pound has found a new lease of life over the past 24 hours, giving those clients holding Sterling some much-needed respite.

UK Retail Sales figures released yesterday came in above market expectation. This coupled with some fairly ominous warning from European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi has helped to boost Sterling’s value, with GBP/EUR hitting 1.1464 at today’s high.

This move optimises the current market, which is becoming more unpredictable by the day.

Sterling has been under a huge amount of late, with the EUR benefitting from what seemed to be a complete lack of investor confidence in GBP.

Fears over the current state of the UK economy have continued to manifest themselves, in line with the greatest signs of stress shown since the Eurozone economy and double-dip recession six years ago.

The Pound in turn had struggled to make any impact against the single currency, which seems to be a direct result of the current malaise inside the UK economy.

With Brexit talks becoming more clouded and a seemingly divisive split in the UK government, the Pound continues to find life tough going.

Despite this seemingly negative outlook, there are always opportunities in the market as yesterday’s movement proves.

Those clients holding Sterling may wish to take advantage of the current spike, as there are certainly no guarantees that this positive trend will continue.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award-winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Sterling weakens as low inflation levels disappoint the markets, where to next for the pair?

Sterling has fallen in value today after some disappointing data released this morning.

According to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) the consumer price index has hit a 1-year low last month. Although this was expected the figure is the lowest since March of 2017, and it showed 2.4%.

This lessens the possibility of a rate hike from the Bank of England later in the year, which is why the Pound has dropped in value. It’s worth noting that many within the financial markets had expected to see the base rate hiked last month and the chances of this happening this year have now slimmed, which is why GBP/EUR is a couple of cents lower now than it was just a few months back when hopes were high.

The Brexit negotiations and internal disputes are being discussed in parliament as we speak as UK Prime Minister, Theresa May hopes to bring about an agreement between her party.

Tomorrow there could be movement for GBP/EUR exchange rates as there is a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting with high hopes of a key update from ECB president, Mario Draghi.

If the ECB plans on cutting back on its Asset Purchasing Plan I expect to see the Euro strengthen.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

EU withdrawal bill to dominate Sterling Euro rates next week

The Pound has remained in a relatively tight range against the Euro during the course of this week as the markets appears to be adopting a wait and see approach with next week’s EU withdrawal bill discussion.

Only recently the House of Lords voted against a number of terms in the bill and this will be debated on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. The main aim of the talks will be what happens to the Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland issue as well as aiming to repeal the original European Communities Act of 1972.

The government are keen to get things resolved prior to the next meeting with the EU when the summit takes place on 28th June as the UK is keen to get things organised for once we officially leave the European Union.

The proposal is that on the day when we do leave, the UK will adopt all EU law otherwise things could be rather chaotic to say the least.

As we look forward to next week there are a number of economic data releases due out in the UK. On Tuesday morning UK average earnings as well as unemployment data is due out and both have been rather positive lately so this could provide a boost for the Pound.

However, the EU withdrawal bill is likely to dominate the Pound during next week so even if the data is positive I think any gains for Sterling vs the Euro will be limited.

If you would like to save money when transferring Euros compared to using your own bank then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. With 15 years of experience at one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident that I can also help you with the timing of your currency purchase.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Forecast – Brexit Developments Continue to Drive Market Sentiment (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have moved back towards 1.14 this morning, following a dip for Sterling during Thursday’s trading.

This downturn could be linked to the latest Brexit update. Reports yesterday indicating that UK Prime Minister Theresa May had to concede ground to Brexit secretary David Davis, regarding the customs union and Northern Irish border.

These developments could further weaken the PM’s position, although on the flip-side they may also help to quell market fears that Davis was on the verge of stepping down from his position.

If this had occurred it could have potentially devastating effects in terms of investor confidence in the UK economy and the Pound would surely have come under huge pressure against its Euro counterpart.

With the Bank of England (BoE) seemingly diluting any chance of an interest rate hike in the short-term, it is likely that the markets and GBP/EUR rates in particular will be driven primarily by Brexit developments.

Whilst economic data will no doubt also impact GBP/EUR value, along with any political destabilisation in with the UK or key Eurozone economies, I expect investors to react primarily to Brexit updates over the coming months.

I have advocated to my clients for many months that any short-term market spikes for GBP should be seen as an opportunity. Investor confidence in the Pound is clearly fragile at best and with the UK’s economic standing post Brexit still clouded in uncertainty, we are still far more questions than answers.

Business Confidence figures remain low and whilst a run of improved economic Data could help elevate Sterling’s value to a certain degree, I am not anticipating a major spike from the current levels over the coming days.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award-winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Brexit uncertainty still weighs on the pound!

The full scale of uncertainty remaining over Brexit was reinforced today with David Davis, the UK Brexit secretary reportedly ready to resign if Theresa May failed to commit to any end date on Brexit when the UK would have effectively left the EU. The idea being to end the potential perpetuity of the loose, yet legal ties the UK would still maybe have with the EU.

For clients interested in the pound and the Euro, the outlook for both currencies remains mixed with plenty of both positive and negative elements to consider. The two currencies have been stuck in a deadlock since November 2017, we have only seen just over 4 cents movements since this date which highlights not only the lack of movement on the pair, but also the potential for big swings up ahead.

Some key events to be conscious of up ahead are the ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision next Thursday before the Bank of England decision the following Thursday and the EU Summit the following week. This makes the next 3 Thursday’s very interesting indeed for the GBP to Euro rate.

I think the pound to Euro will remain in this 4 cent band, essentially between 1.12-1.16, clients looking to buy or sell Euros with pounds should be checking the market very carefully. There is potential for a move outside of these levels but more than likely we will fluctuate inside them. For any clients looking at a position we can offer a free, no obligation service to offer strategy and monitor the market for developments which will help you.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you!

What to expect for the Pound vs the Euro next week

Sterling Euro exchange rates have remained in a very tight range during the course of this week and although we have seen a lot of movement against a number of different currencies the GBPEUR pair has hardly moved over the last few days.

During the middle of the week UK inflation data showed a fall to 2.4% and this means there is less evidence to support an interest rate hike in the near future and this has caused the Pound to struggle against the single currency this week.

UK Retail Sales data that came out yesterday showed an increase compared to the previous month but as the previous readings included the problems caused by the bad weather also known as the ‘beast from the east’ then in my mind this did not cause too much of a surprise.

This morning we could have seen a bit of a lift with the release of UK GDP figures but as they came out exactly the same as expected this did little to provide much market movement for the Pound vs the Euro.

Overall the economic data this week has not done much to influence the Pound vs the Euro and it appears as though the rates will be affected by what is happening politically at the moment.

As we go into next week we have a Bank Holiday on Monday so expect rates to remain relatively stable until Tuesday when things get going again with the latest release of mortgage approvals and then manufacturing data on Thursday.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money compared to using your bank then contact me directly for a free quote and a brief outline of your particular requirement.

Enjoy your weekend and I look forward to hearing from you

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Italian Politics and a positive end to the week for the Pound

It appears as though Italian politics are causing the Euro a problem as the Pound has shown signs of improvement and even EURUSD exchange rates are close to their lowest levels in months.

Both the Italian parties the 5 Star Movement and Lega have both proposed plans to leave the EU in the future and this is clearly a cause for concern.

They have also suggested that they will look to increase pensions for older Italians as well as considering a plan to create an amnesty for some tax offenders in Italy.

Recently European Central Bank President Mario Draghi suggested that political tensions could cause problems for the Eurozone and therefore the single currency so a change in Italy could potentially cause a ripple effect in the months ahead.

Yesterday, the Eurozone announced Construction Output data and this showed a fall which caused the single currency to fall against the Pound providing a good opportunity this week to buy the Euro at its highest level.

Later on this morning the Eurozone will release the latest set of Trade Balance data and this will give us a key insight into how the economy on the continent is performing.

Overall, I think we could see a positive end to the week for anyone looking to buy Euros and I think the GBPEUR exchange rate may even break past 1.15 during today’s trading session.

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency companies for 15 years I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your transfer.

For a free quote then contact me directly by calling 01494787478 and asking for Tom Holian when calling or email me directly with a brief description of your currency requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Finds Some Support After Last Week’s Heavy Losses (Matthew Vassallo)

The Pound has found a level of support against the Euro this week, following a poor run over the past couple of weeks.

GBP/EUR rates are now trading back above 1.14, which will be welcomed by any clients looking to execute a GBP/EUR currency exchange over the coming days.

It’s been well documented that the Pound has been under pressure of late. Investors quickly sold off their GBP currency position, when it became clear that the Bank of England (BoE) would not be raising interest rates at their recent policy meeting.

I do believe that the BoE and Mark Carney in particular have lost a lot of credibility and this could have an impact on Sterling’s value moving forward, which in turn could help support any increase in value for the EUR.

Looking at the GBP/EUR pair and the trend over the past 12 months has been repetitive, with the Pound seemingly finding a level of support only to be knocked back time and again.

It is unlikely that a move back towards the highs of last year, when the Pound was trading in the higher teens and one stage even seemed as if it could put pressure back on the dizzy heights of 1.20.

Fast forward and it those levels seem ambitious at best, especially when you consider that UK growth forecasts for 2018 have been cut once again to 1.4%.

Despite the current malaise, the Eurozone is not without its own problems. Political fragmentation across the region, Italy being the prime example, could potentially destabilise the Eurozone economy.

We have already seen a downturn from last year and for this reason, it still seems as though the downside risk, outweighs the upside benefits for those clients holding EUR.

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

Has GBP/EUR already hit its 2018 high, and what factors could drive its value as the year progresses?

The Pound to Euro exchange rate is currently trading around the 1.14 mark, after seeing a slight boost yesterday off the back of some positive data.

After beginning yesterday’s trading session closer to the 1.13 mark the Pound was boosted when the Office of National Statistics (ONS) announced that UK unemployment sits at the record low of 4.2%, and that wage growth in the UK has outpaced the rate of inflation for the first time in a year.

Despite this positive data the Pound to Euro rate is still a couple of cents from its highest levels this year when the pair almost hit 1.16. The positive sentiment surrounding the Pound has since dropped off after the Bank of England voted against a rate hike at last weeks monetary policy meeting.

In order for GBP/EUR to hit a new 2018 high I think there will need to be a breakthrough regarding the final Brexit deal, as such positive news would likely push the Pound higher. I also think that if talk of a rate hike returns later in the year we could see a stronger Pound, especially if the European Central Bank (ECB) continue to hold off of raising interest rates this year.

For those following the pair, its worth noting that Morgan Stanley are predicting short term weakness in the Pounds value, before a longer term recovery as they believe the Pound is oversold and that this will continue in the short term future.

There is a lack of data out of the UK for the rest of the week, but this mornings inflation data from the Eurozone may influence exchange rates.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBPEUR remains range bound in the 1.13s

This morning the UK released their latest average earnings numbers and Europe released their latest GDP numbers and both economic data releases met the expectation. Due to there being no surprises GBPEUR exchange rates have remains fairly flat throughout the day. If anything the pound has made some minor gains against the euro and you could argue the fall in European production is the reasoning for this.

GBPEUR exchange rates have been gradually falling over the last 2 weeks since Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney announced that the UK were unlikely to raise interest rates. With the central bank failing to hike last Thursday this story could have a major influence on the future of GBPEUR going forward.

UK economic data releases need to be watched closely if you are converting GBPEUR short term. Economic data for April was terrible, if we see a rebound now that the weather has changed the likelihood of a hike increases and therefore the pound should follow suit. However Brexit negotiations will also be a key driver for exchange rates.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has warned Brexiteers today that she is not prepared for a no deal which would in turn create a hard border in Ireland. My opinion has not changed I would be extremely tempted to buy euros upfront as the Brexit story has the potential to crash the pound if the negotiations go horribly wrong.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR currency transfers feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Bank of England keep rates on hold which causes the Pound to fall against the Euro

The Bank of England confirmed yesterday that they would be keeping interest rates on hold and the vote was split 7-2 in favour of keeping interest rates the same.

The Interbank level fell from 1.1450 to 1.1380 minutes after the announcement as some now feel that an interest rate hike may be a long time away from coming.

UK GDP data which came out a fortnight ago showed growth was at just 0.1% for the first quarter and this was one of the principle reasons for keeping rates on hold and this caused investors to sell off the Pound.

A potential interest rate hike was one of the main factors for Sterling’s strength against the Euro last month but since then the focus will turn back to what is happening with the Brexit talks which are still very uncertain.

ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak this afternoon so any hints that there may be a change to the current monetary policy could see some volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates.

On Tuesday we are likely to see a very volatile start to the week as there are a number of economic data releases to watch out for.

We begin Tuesday with the release UK unemployment figures and at the same time Average Earnings are also due out. If average earnings show another positive reading then this could provide some support for a rate hike to come in the future and with UK Inflation Report Hearings due out at 11am we could see a lot of movement.

Also on Tuesday Eurozone GDP data is released at 10am so expect Tuesday to be the biggest day of movement for GBPEUR exchange rates.

Having worked in the foreign exchange markets since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am able to offer you bank beating exchange rates as well as helping you with the timing of your transfer.

For a free quote then contact me directly by calling 01494787478 and asking for Tom Holian when calling or email me directly with a brief description of your currency requirement and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Falters Following BoE Interest Rate Decision (Matthew Vassallo)

The Pound has retracted against Euro counterpart during “Super Thursday” following a host of UK data releases and of course, the much anticipated interest rate decision by the Bank of England (BoE).

GBP/EUR rates have fallen back towards 1.13, hitting 1.1315 at this afternoon’s low. This is a drop of almost a cent and a half from its earlier high, as investors continued to sell-off their Sterling positions throughout afternoon trading.

Today’s dip came following news yesterday that the House of Lords had voted to stay in the single market. It must be noted that it is highly unlikely that the House of Commons will uphold the amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill, with neither the Conservatives or Labour parties backing the changes.

It did however add to the uncertainly, which is currently threatening to destabilise and cloud the UK’s position during the on-going Brexit negotiations.

This uncertainty was already handicapping any major advances for Sterling against the Euro. Today’s poor economic data releases and a fairly dovish statement by BoE governor Mark Carney will only add to this and it now unlikely GBP/EUR rates will head back to the recent highs of 1.15+ in the short-term.

UK Industrial production figures came out below the markets predicted result and trade balance figures also made for grim reading. These coupled with Carney distancing the central bank from any specific timeline on a future interest rate hike, has produced more questions than answers for investors over the coming weeks.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Under Pressure Despite Yesterday’ Gains (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling found some support against the EUR during Wednesday’s trading, following comments by UK Prime Minister Theresa May.

There had been speculation that MP’s would look for “vote of no confidence in the PM”, in regards to the UK’s stance on leaving the EU’s customs union. Theresa May was quick to play down this scenario and after rejected the notion the Pound rallied against the EUR during afternoon trading.

Despite finding some support Sterling failed to make any significant impact against the single currency, with the Euro finding plenty of support under 1.14.

Yesterday’s positive move was short-lived, with GBP/EUR rates hitting 1.1338 at this morning’s low.

The Pound seems to have lost all of its momentum over recent days, having moved close to 12 month highs towards the end of April.

It seems as though the primary reason for its demise is linked to next week’s Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision.

It had been widely anticipated that the central bank would hike rates at their next policy meeting but a drastic change in market conditions, has seen sentiment swing the other way.

Having been well supported for weeks, Sterling is come under a huge amount of pressure this week, with investors selling off their Sterling positions with haste, causing its value to dip at an alarming rate. Poor Manufacturing figures earlier this week intensified this negative feeling, following on from Friday’s disappointing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.

It is now extremely unlikely that the BoE will raise rates next week in my opinion, with the 0.25% rise likely to be pushed back until further data is analysed over the coming weeks. However, even a strong run  of data over the coming weeks may not be enough, with early reports suggesting a rate rise may now be off the table until at least the last quarter of this year.

Therefore those client with an upcoming GBP currency exchange to execute may be left disappointed if they hold out for any major improvement over the coming days.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

GBP/EUR trading around a 6-week low, will the pair continue to fall?

The Pound has come under pressure once again today, not just compared to the Euro but across the board of major currencies. Those planning on making a large transfer from Pounds into Euros are seeing the cost of Euros become more expensive on almost a daily basis at the moment, and there are a number of reasons for this.

The financial markets had previously been pricing in an interest rate hike from the Bank of England, up to 0.75% which would be the highest rate since the UK exited the global recession almost 10-years ago. This rate hike is now looking a lot less likely after some disappointing GDP figures released lat week showed a slowdown in the UK economy. According to the preliminary GDP figures, the UK economy has slowed to its slowest level in 5-years and although much of this is being attributed to the terrible weather in the first quarter of this year.

At the same time Manufacturing data released this morning showed that the sector has dropped to a 17-month low. With the UK economy appearing to slowdown the chances of a rate hike have slipped and now Lloyd’s Bank are only expecting a 20% chance of the hike actually happening this month.

Tomorrow there is Construction data to be released and then on Thursday there will be Services data released, all out of the UK. Further weak data in my opinion is highly likely to result in a further sell-off of the Pound, so do feel free to register your interest with me if you would like to be notified should there be a major spike do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

What will happen at the ECB meeting today?

The European Central Bank will be meeting later on today to discuss their latest plans for monetary policy. The current QE programme remains at €30bn per month and at the moment the expectation is that this will end towards the end of this year.

I don’t think we’ll see any change to policy this month so all eyes will be focused on the tone of the press conference and whether ECB president Mario Draghi will suggest that any changes may be coming.

Draghi has previously made it quite apparent that he wants to see further signs of growth in inflation before any change to the economic stimulus is made.

The Euro has hit the lowest level against the Pound since May 2017 in the last fortnight after rumours increased that an interest rate hike may be coming in the UK but since then the Pound slightly dropped against the single currency after Bank of England governor Mark Carney suggested that although rate hikes are ‘likely’ his tone was a little dovish.

However, in my opinion I think there is enough evidence to justify a rate hike coming in the UK as average earnings have surpassed inflation for the first time in a long time and unemployment levels are close to the lowest on record.

Therefore, even if we don’t see an interest rate hike on May 10th I think the overall tone will be that there will be one coming soon which could give the Pound a boost against the Euro.

If you’re considering buying Euros then it may be worth seeing what happens later today with the ECB before making your move.

For further information or a free quote when buying currency then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. Having worked for one of the UK’s longest established currency brokers since 2003 I am confident I can save you money on exchange rates.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Is the trend of a strong April for the Pound about to end?

The seasonal trend of the Pound gaining throughout the month of April looks set to end this month, which is coincidentally the 13th month unlikely when the Pound is compared with the US Dollar.

The Pound tends to perform well against most major currency pairs including the Euro during April, with the trend being attributed to the new tax year and a lot of dividend payments being made around this time in GBP denominated equities.

It looks like 13th time unlikely as the Pound is trading below its starting point versus the US Dollar and the Euro when the month begun. Sterling has been coming under pressure recently after some poor Retail Sales figures and lower inflation and wage growth figures. The drop in the Pounds value and sentiment surrounding it have led the Bank of America Merrill Lynch to drop their bet on the Pound gaining in value during the month of April.

I also think that Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney failing to confirm the expected interest rate hike from the BoE next month has also impacted the Pound negatively, and the issues surrounding whether or not the UK will leave the EU Customs Union is also weighing on the Pounds value.

If you would like to discuss any upcoming transfers you’re planning, I think next months BoE meeting on the 10th of May is key, and feel free to get in touch to plan around this event and ask for my opinion.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GDP to influence exchange rates this week

The recent positive run for GBPEUR exchange rates came to an end last week, when UK inflation feel sharply and Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney couldn’t confirm the prospects of an interest rate hike in May. Sterling fell from the 1.16s to the 1.14s causing concern for euro buyers. Any further commentary from the Bank of England over the next couple of weeks before the decision will have the potential to cause further fluctuations.

Other UK economic data in the form of Retail sales was another reason why the Governor failed to state a hike is just around the corner. UK GDP numbers are set to be released this week and the predictions are for a slight fall as the adverse weather conditions continue to cause a problem for the UK. If GDP falls I expect that an interest rate hike may not occur which could be a problem for euro buyers but good news for Euro sellers.

In other news the house of commons is set to meet this week to discuss the customs union. The House of lords voted in favour of remaining within the customers union, however Theresa May has made it clear that the  UK is leaving. If this story continues to escalate again this could put pressure on the pound.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR currency transfers feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Struggling to Make an Impact Above 1.15 (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has held its been position against the EUR of late but so far has struggled to make any impact above 1.15.

The EUR continues to find support around this threshold, as it has done every time it has been tested over recent months.

There is no doubt the Pound has gained a foothold following a strong run of UK economic data and progress in Brexit talks but is the Pound likely to break through the current levels any time soon?

Whilst it is impossible to predict exactly how the markets will evolve, any clients with an upcoming Sterling currency exchange to execute should be wary about assuming that the Pound’s upward will last. Despite the UK and EU agreeing on terms for a transitional period ahead of the UK’s inevitable Brexit, this agreement has simply kept the ‘wolf from the door’ for another couple of years.

There are still many unanswered question regarding the UK’s future trade status both with our European neighbours and globally and as such I feel the Pound is still likely to be handicapped over the coming months, at least to some extent.

Looking at the Eurozone itself and its economy continues to perform admirably, with the European Central Bank (ECB) likely to tie up their current monetary policy programme before the end of this year. If this dopes happen it is a show of strength and again it means the ECB no longer feel the Eurozone economy need propping up.

In the short-term UK data tomorrow in the form of Manufacturing & Industrial Production figures is expected to be mixed, so it unlikely the Pound will receive much support following these releases, unless of course they come out above the markets predicted result.

If you do have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

GBP/EUR – When shall I move? (Daniel Johnson)

Why will GBP/EUR not breach 1.15 and remain above 1.15?

Sterling has made significant improvements against the majority of major currencies of late. Breaking resistance points against both the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar, 1.80 and 1.40 respectively. Against the Euro however it only breached the key resistance point of 1.15 for a very short period.

1.15 has been the absolute peak of the market, this level only being breached on a few occasions and every time it quickly retracts. I have been saying for months that if you have to move short term trade if the market sits in the 1.14s.

There has been several catalyst for Sterling’s recent improvement. We have seen retail sales figures come in well above expectations. Previous readings came in at – 0.2% and the prediction was a rise to 0.4%. They landed at 0.8% for February.

We also saw average wage growth move much closer to parity with inflation, which is a true sign of a healthy economy. An interest rate hike from the Bank of England (BOE) was already highly probable in May, but this may force the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) hand.

It was also announced that the UK would have access to single market during the Brexit transitional period, which is very good news indeed.

If ever there was a reasoning of late for GBP/EUR to break 1.15 and stay above 1.15 these were it. What gives me worries is that it didn’t.  I think it means we are going to have to have some pretty significant news to do so. Perhaps this could come in the form of news on the Irish border situation. which is at present a major point of contention in Brexit negotiations.

Personally, I am still of the opinion if you have to move short term do so in the 1.14s.

If you have a currency requirement I would b happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.