Tag Archives: ECB

Will GBPEUR exchange rates rise or fall by the end of the week?

With GBPEUR exchange reaches back above 1.14, it seems like a good time for euro buyer to take advantage as I expect the pound could come under pressure on Thursday when the Bank of England announce their latest interest rate decision.

The chances of a rate hike have dropped to 20% from 80% according to Lloyds and the reason for the fall is that UK economic data released last month disappointed. Retail sales, inflation and GDP all dropped significantly and recent Brexit developments are also putting pressure on the Bank of England’s decision.

Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has stated over the last 18 months that Brexit developments will influence monetary policy, and with the House of Lords on a weekly basis heavily criticizing the Government, UK Prime Minister Theresa May appears to be stuck between a rock and a hard place. It was only this afternoon the House of Lords stated the UK should remain part of the single market.

My personal opinion is that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold and the Governor Mark Carney will continue with his stance that a hike is likely to occur this year, however he will not confirm when and this will cause the pound to lose further value.

To finish the week all eyes will turn to the ECB and President Mario Draghi’s speech. Every time the President speaks, investors are watching closely for guidance in regards to the QE program. Time is running out for the President as he will want to give the markets as much time to adjust and the plan was to cut the QE program by the end of the year. This story has the potential to have a major influence of GBPEUR exchange rates moving forward.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR currency transfers feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

 

 

What will happen at the ECB meeting today?

The European Central Bank will be meeting later on today to discuss their latest plans for monetary policy. The current QE programme remains at €30bn per month and at the moment the expectation is that this will end towards the end of this year.

I don’t think we’ll see any change to policy this month so all eyes will be focused on the tone of the press conference and whether ECB president Mario Draghi will suggest that any changes may be coming.

Draghi has previously made it quite apparent that he wants to see further signs of growth in inflation before any change to the economic stimulus is made.

The Euro has hit the lowest level against the Pound since May 2017 in the last fortnight after rumours increased that an interest rate hike may be coming in the UK but since then the Pound slightly dropped against the single currency after Bank of England governor Mark Carney suggested that although rate hikes are ‘likely’ his tone was a little dovish.

However, in my opinion I think there is enough evidence to justify a rate hike coming in the UK as average earnings have surpassed inflation for the first time in a long time and unemployment levels are close to the lowest on record.

Therefore, even if we don’t see an interest rate hike on May 10th I think the overall tone will be that there will be one coming soon which could give the Pound a boost against the Euro.

If you’re considering buying Euros then it may be worth seeing what happens later today with the ECB before making your move.

For further information or a free quote when buying currency then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you. Having worked for one of the UK’s longest established currency brokers since 2003 I am confident I can save you money on exchange rates.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Struggling to Make an Impact Above 1.15 (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling has held its been position against the EUR of late but so far has struggled to make any impact above 1.15.

The EUR continues to find support around this threshold, as it has done every time it has been tested over recent months.

There is no doubt the Pound has gained a foothold following a strong run of UK economic data and progress in Brexit talks but is the Pound likely to break through the current levels any time soon?

Whilst it is impossible to predict exactly how the markets will evolve, any clients with an upcoming Sterling currency exchange to execute should be wary about assuming that the Pound’s upward will last. Despite the UK and EU agreeing on terms for a transitional period ahead of the UK’s inevitable Brexit, this agreement has simply kept the ‘wolf from the door’ for another couple of years.

There are still many unanswered question regarding the UK’s future trade status both with our European neighbours and globally and as such I feel the Pound is still likely to be handicapped over the coming months, at least to some extent.

Looking at the Eurozone itself and its economy continues to perform admirably, with the European Central Bank (ECB) likely to tie up their current monetary policy programme before the end of this year. If this dopes happen it is a show of strength and again it means the ECB no longer feel the Eurozone economy need propping up.

In the short-term UK data tomorrow in the form of Manufacturing & Industrial Production figures is expected to be mixed, so it unlikely the Pound will receive much support following these releases, unless of course they come out above the markets predicted result.

If you do have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

GBP/EUR exchange rates still range bound – Data tomorrow to impact Euro exchange rates

So far this week we have still seen GBP/EUR exchange rates remain in the same range of 1.12 – 1.13 with no major threat of breaking out.

Tomorrow we have a number of releases that do have the potential to change that, all from the Eurozone.

European Central Bank president Mario Draghi is due to speak tomorrow morning at 08:00am and ECB member Praet is due to follow up with a speech at 08:45am. Any comments from either member that hint towards any fuiscal changes in the coming days, weeks or month could lead to volatility for Euro exchange rates.

Later in the morning we have industrial production figures, employment change and the ECB vice president Vitor Constancio and any one of these three have the potential to move the markets, industrial production figures are due to have come down a little which may weaken the Euro, employment change is also expected to have fallen too so we may see a little weakness for the Euro in the morning should these expectations be correct.

Towards the end of the trading week on Friday we have Consumer Price Index or CPI figures due out from the Eurozone and this might lead to a volatile finish to the week for Euro exchange rates in what looks on paper like a reasonably quiet week for economic data releases, key speeches and Brexit based news.

If you are generally busy a lot of the time and you do not have time to watch the market then a proactive and reliable broker should be able to do this for you, if you would like me to do exactly that then you are more than welcome to get in touch with me directly. Having worked in currency exchange for over a decade not only do I understand the importance of keeping clients up to date with market movements, but also how much difference timing a transaction correctly can make.

If you would like my assistance, feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch with you directly.

GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Struggling to Sustain any Improvements (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates are floating around 1.12, with Sterling still struggling to make any significant impact against its EUR counterpart.

The Pound came under pressure early this week following poor UK Services data, which came our under market expectation. This inadvertently boosted the EUR’s value, which has already been well supported of late.

Some mixed Eurozone data helped curb any significant losses for GBP but as per the recent trend, every time the Pound has taken a step forward it has hit a wall of resistance and retracted almost as quickly.

With so much emphasis on Brexit negotiations at present, it was always likely that this rather than individual economic data releases are going to continue to drive market sentiment and ultimately investor confidence over the coming months.

The media seems to be cementing this negative perception, with any positive report followed by two or three negative ones and this is one of the main reasons the Pound is struggling to make any sustainable gains against the Euro.

Of course, the Eurozone economy itself has outperformed almost every expectation over the past 18 months, with the European Central Bank (ECB) and its president Mario Draghi lauding their current monetary policy programme as its saviour.

When you look at the UK & Eurozone economies and the current prosperity and outlook for each, it is easier to understand why the pound is facing an uphill struggle at present.

With UK economic data at a minimum this week, tomorrow’s Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could hold extra week. Any figure above the 0.6% expected growth could put further pressure on Sterling

If you have an upcoming Sterling currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.

Our award inning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.

Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.

How will the Pound move against the Euro in 2018? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has remained in a fairly tight range against the Euro since the start of the year as the market appears to be waiting for further progress with the Brexit talks.

With the last meeting going relatively well in early December we saw GBPEUR rates spike in an upwards direction but the gains were relatively short-lived.

The critical issue of Brexit is that it is not just the UK who will be affected but also the European Union.

When the talks initially began last year the Pound came under a lot of pressure as the cards appeared to be in the hands of the other 27 member states.

However, recently the talks have started to progress positively and I think we could see Sterling improve in the future when the next round of discussions begin again in March.

At the moment the market is relatively settled so if you’re happy converting your money at these rates and would like a free quote then contact me directly by calling 01494725353 and ask for Tom Holian when calling.

The next catalyst for change in the short term is due to come out later on this morning with the latest release of Eurozone inflation figures at 10am. Eurozone Inflation is extremely important for the central bank when deciding monetary policy so this morning’s data could impact GBPEUR exchange rates.

The European Central Bank has already previously reduced their QE programme and if inflation remains as expected we could see the ECB possibly hint at raising interest rates at the next monthly meeting in the future which could see strength for the single currency.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like a free quote compared to using your own bank or simply want to compare rates to buy or sell Euros against your current foreign exchange provider then feel free to get in touch for a free quote. Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to help save you money on exchange rates.

Email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

Events that could impact GBPEUR exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

The main economic talking points at present which have the potential to have a major impact on GBPEUR exchange rates are if the European Central Bank  makes adjustments to the quantitative easing program on October 26th and whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates on November 2nd.

Members of the European Central Bank including the President Mario Draghi, have hinted that decisions could be made in October. However inflation numbers fell last month therefore I don’t expect the ECB to make cuts this month. Nevertheless the chances that they will hint towards making cuts in the near future are high, therefore this event could lead to euro strength.

Even though GBPEUR exchange rates have been on the decline in recent weeks, the market has priced in that there is a strong chance the Bank of England will raise interest rates on the 2nd November.  Due to the pounds surge throughout September I expect some of the inflationary pressures to have been curbed. Couple this with a poor run of economic data throughout October the likelihood of an interest rate hike I believe have diminished.

If my predictions above materialise I expect GBPEUR will fall below 1.10 throughout November. Good news for any clients selling euros to buy pounds. 

Short term many of the ECB members are speaking today. Know doubt one of the members will be quizzed about quantitative easing and interest rates. Speculators will be watching closely to see whether any hints are made to tapering. If you are converting GBPEUR short term, today’s event could have a major impact on the exchange price you receive.

If you are converting GBPEUR in the upcoming months and are looking to achieve competitive rates of exchange whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you along with the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.

When will the European Central Bank taper their QE Programme? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has seen some small gains during this week but I fully expect GBPEUR exchange rates to experience a huge amount of volatility later on today.

The European Central Bank are due to meet at 1245pm today and ECB president Mario Draghi is due to address the markets later this afternoon.

There has been much talk of the current QE programme and when the ECB may start to taper the programme.

The likelihood is that the tapering will commence later in the year in perhaps December so any absence of when this may take place could see the Pound make gains.

However, if Draghi does look to announce or at least suggest when QE may start this could cause the single currency to dramatically strengthen against the Pound.

Overall the market for GBPEUR exchange rates is likely to continue to be dominated by the Brexit talks and today’s ‘Great Repeal Bill’ will be hotly debated in the House of Commons later today.

The uncertainty and the ambiguity over the costs of Brexit and what Brexit actually means has caused Sterling to experience real problems lately and in the short to medium term I cannot see the Pound making any real gains vs the Euro.

If you have a currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency.

A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Tom Holian) on teh@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP/EUR Drops below 1.15 (Daniel Johnson)

Draghi Delivers

Draghi showed his prowess at public speaking today. Addressing concerns in the Eurozone and providing solutions for potential problems. I have to admit this guy is good. He seems to address serious problems in the Eurozone with an “everything will be O.K fashion.”

I have witnessed Draghi convince the market with words in the past, despite actions to the contrary by the ECB in the past. I distinctly remember an occasion when it was announced Draghi would be increasing stimulus to the QE program to the tune of €20bn a month, the markets reacted to his reassurances of stability rather than the action of pumping €20bn into an struggling economy.

My opinion is that the Euro is in for a rough year. Three general elections will take place this year. There is the strong possibility a far right party gaining power in one of these elections which would could bring about a referendum. We have witnessed the damage caused to Sterling by the vote to leave the EU. Geert Wilder is ahead in the polls in the Holland (although it will be difficult for him to establish a coalition) and Marine Le Pen the leader of the National Front has a real chance of winning.

Let us also consider Italian bank’s bad loans, now in excess of €360bn due to their lack of a contingency plan. Greek debt, the problem that will not go away and unemployment within the bloc  bordering on 18 million.

Short to medium term the pound has potential to fall due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. But, my opinion is similar to that of Morgan Stanley analysts.

“The pound is one of the most undervalued currencies in the world and will  return to pre-Brexit levels.”

I do not think Sterling’s value will rise quickly, but as trade deals become more apparent I am of the strong opinion the pound will rally.

If I was holding Euros, I would sell now. Moving when GBP/EUR sits in the 1.14s is not a bad move considering what could lie ahead.

If you would like my assistance with your trades, do get in touch. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

Today’s US FED Interest Rate Decision Likely to Affect Global Markets (Matthew Vassallo)

Today’s much anticipated interest rate decision by the US Federal reserve, is likely to have an influence on the global currency markets.

This means anyone with a GBP/EUR currency exchange to make should be keeping a close eye on market developments throughout the day.

Whilst there is no direct correlation, the high chanced of a rate hike means that investors could well move their money away from riskier currencies and back into the USD.

With pressure on both the UK and Eurozone economies this is harder to dissect but instinct is that the EUR will be seen as the weaker of the two and as such we could see EUR positions sold off this evening. In turn we could see EUR weakness against the Pound but whether or not it will be enough to push the apart through 1.20 I’m not so convinced.

The single currency has come under pressure since last week’s announcement by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi, that they would be extending their current monetary policy programme beyond the current deadline of March 2017. With the new timeline set to continue their bond buying scheme until December next year, the markets immediately took this a sign of weakness in the Eurozone economy and the EUR weakened as a result.

Whilst this announcement was at least in part expected, it is proof that investor confidence in the Eurozone region is low and the Pounds value was inadvertently pushed up as a result of this.

GBP/EUR rates have moved through 1.19 and whilst I expect the EUR to find support around the 1.20 level, it is becoming increasingly clear that the EUR is unlikely to move back to the high we saw a few months ago, so those clients holding EUR positons should act accordingly. The EUR is still trading at extremely attractive levels against the Pound when you consider history on the pair and with so much un certainty surrounding the Eurozone, both politically and economically, now could be the time to act.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Rates Retract Following Sterling Spike (Matthew Vassallo)

GBP/EUR rates have retracted over the early part of the trading week, with the pair falling below 1.18 on the exchange.

The Pound had made a move through 1.20 in the early hours of Monday morning, following the Italian referendum result and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s subsequent resignation. This caused investors to panic due to the political and potential negative economic effects this would have on the Eurozone and Sterling benefited as a result.

However, this positive momentum was short lived and the EUR has fought back, proving how fragile the UK economy remains in the eyes of investors. The EUR has benefited from a strong run of economic data, including better than expected Retail Sales figures.

We also saw their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) number come it at 1.7%, better than the expected 1.6% growth. This is such  key release for an economy as it gives us a key insight into the current economic standing, as well as an insight into future growth prospects.

This combined has helped the single currency to bounce back against Sterling and with the current Supreme Court ruling on whether the UK can leave the EU without Article 50 being ratified by MP’s, expect further market uncertainty over the coming days and weeks.

Personally I wouldn’t be prepared to gamble on the current market. There are concerns over whether the European Central Bank’s (ECB) will extend their current monetary policy (QE) programme beyond its current deadline of March, at tomorrow’s policy meeting. If this does occur it could start to heap pressure back on the EUR, so today may be an opportune moment to execute and short-term EUR/GBP currency exchanges.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR Rates Spike Again! (Matthew Vassallo)

Sterling received another welcome boost during yesterday’s trading, following the release of strong UK mortgage approvals for October from the Bank of England (BoE).

Mortgage approvals jumped to just over 67,500, which far exceeded the expected figure of 65,000. This helped boost Sterling value, with GBP/EUR hitting 1.1809 at yesterday’s high. This provided those clients holding the Pound with some of the best rates they’ve had over the past few months, with the Pound gaining over four cents at the high over the past few weeks.

Whilst Sterling has clearly found a foothold in the market, is investor confidence high enough to drive the Pound forward further or have we seen reach a peak in the short-term?

It is a difficult question to answer due to the high level of economic uncertainty surrounding both the UK and Eurozone economies.

The economic and social problems within the Eurozone are likely to manifest themselves over the coming months. Next month’s Italian referendum is likely to dominate headlines and if a No vote is reached by the public then the current Italian prime Minister Matteo Renzi is likely to step down. This could pave the way for the rise of the far right party in Italy, which will clearly change the political landscape and as such, cause further uncertainty in one of the Eurozone’s key economies.

We also need to consider the political unrest spreading across Europe and if this year’s Brexit decision and US election results are anything to go by then who knows which parties may be in power in Eurozone strongholds by the end of 2017.

There is also a distinct possibility that European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi will announce next month that they are extending their current monetary policy (QE) programme, beyond the current March 2017 cut-off date. If this is indeed the case, expect EUR weakness off the back of this decision.

On the flip side, you have to look at the on-going uncertainty surrounding the UK economy and with the Supreme Court ruling in December regarding how Article 50 can be triggered, only likely to cloud matters further, the Pound could well come under further pressure as we head towards the end of 2016.

This analysis leads me to believe that anyone with a short to medium-term GBP/EUR currency requirement should looking to take advantage of the current improvement if you are holding Sterling, or protect the huge gains made for EUR sellers over the past few months.

If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, or limiting your losses with one of our forward contracts, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

Tomorrow’s UK GDP Figures Key for Sterling Exchange Rates! (Matthew Vassallo)

Tomorrow’s UK Gross Domestic (GDP) figures are likely to be key for any clients holding Sterling or Euro. With the expectation for 0.3% growth I expect additional volatility on GBP/EUR exchange rates if the figure comes outside of this remit.

Sterling had started to regain some ground against it’s EUR counterpart but fell away during yesterday’s trading. Rumours surfaced ahead of Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney speech that he was going to take a dovish tone, which the markets immediately took as a negative and this ended the Pound’s mini recovery.

Whilst his comments were not overly positive he did mention a prospective interest rate hike due to UK Prime Minister’s prospective policy changes and this helped boost Sterling’s value and eliminate some of the afternoon’s losses.

GBP/EUR rates dipped to a low of 1.1132 but recovered back towards 1.12 following Carney’s speech. We’ve seen Sterling threaten a mini recovery on more than one occasion and European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi’s speech also curbed any further Sterling advances, as he commented on the current Quantitative Easing (QE) programme and how he felt it was having a positive effect.

I just feel that under the current market conditions the Pound will struggle to make any sustainable impact until at least next year, when key political elections and other factors in the Eurozone may start to drag the EUR value back down. If I was holding EUR I would still look to protect the gains I’d made and with a key data release tomorrow for the UK (UK Gross Domestic Product figures released at 09.30), I expect to see further market movement during Wednesday’s trading.

If you have an upcoming Sterling or Euro currency exchange to make and you are concerned by the increased market volatility of late, it may be wise to look at protecting the gains you’ve made, rather than gamble on what has become an increasingly volatile and unpredictable market.

If you would like to be kept up to date with all the latest market movements ahead of your currency exchange, or simply wish to compare our award-winning exchange rates with your current provider, then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for Matt. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk

 

An important day for Euro exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

With the ECB set to release their latest interest rate decision this afternoon and President Mario Draghi’s press conference shortly after today could dictate euro exchange rates for the weeks ahead.

With interest rates at 0% I would be surprised to see any further cuts from the European Central Bank however all eyes will turn to Mr Draghi and his future plans in regards to the Quantitative Easing program that finishes March 2017.

Quantitative Easing is where a central bank buys assets which are normally  The central bank introduces a new money supply into the economy. The theory behind quantitative easing is to stimulate the economy however the currency does lose value.

If Mr Draghi does decide to extend the Q.E program I would expect major euro weakness however in my opinion an extension is very unlikely until early next year.

Short term I expect the ECB to keep their cards close to their chests and bat off questions from reporters about any extensions. Therefore the major talking point that should continue to impact GBPEUR exchange rates should be the Brexit.

UK Prime Minister has stated a Brexit will occur in March 2017 and this has been the main reason why the pound has lost value over the last two weeks. Looking ahead I expect the pound to continue to devalue and GBPEUR exchange rates to drop off. For euro buyers this year, a trade sooner rather than later is sensible. If you do not have all of your sterling available a contract that may interest you is a forward contract, which allows you to fix exchange rates now and pay later.

For more information in regards to the currency market, forward contracts or how I can achieve you the best exchange rates, feel free to email me with your requirements, timescales, the best number to reach you on and I will give you a call to discuss your options drl@currencies.co.uk.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

A tough time for the UK and Eurozone (Dayle Littlejohn)

Its been reported by European Council President Donald Tusk that Brexit talks could start as early as February 2017. UK Prime Minister Theresa May is keeping her cards close to her chest and has failed to comment so far.

Looking ahead it appears that the pound is going to come under severe pressure in the next 6 months and I believe we will see a contraction within the UK economy. Since the UK left the EU GBPEUR exchange rates have dropped 14 cents making a €200,000 purchase £18,000 more expensive and there’s a chance this could get worse for euro buyers.

For euro sellers, the UK’s referendum in regards to EU membership has provided you a window of opportunity. GBPEUR has dropped 14 cents which means if you convert €200,000 now compared to June 23rd you will receive an additional £18,000!

However cracks are also appearing within the Eurozone economy. Inflation remains at a worrying low even though the European Central Bank have been injecting a substantial amount of Euros into the economy for the last 18 months. Interest rates are at 0% and if the ECB want to change monetary policy they are going to have to cut rates to negative territory.

The point I am trying to make is that both the UK and Eurozone have a rocky road ahead therefore for people buying currency its important to analyse the market on a weekly basis and trade when the market spikes in your favour.

If you are buying or selling euros this year, today is the day to get in touch. Many people still believe the only way to transfer large amounts of money is through the bank and this is not the case. The company I work for enables me to give better exchange rates than high street banks which consequently means the individual saves money.

I would recommend emailing me with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Will the Pound go back up past 1.20 vs the Euro next week? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has experienced a good recovery during August against the Euro after economic data published recently has shown that the Brexit didn’t have as much of a negative impact of some had suggested.

UK retail sales, manufacturing data and services have all been relatively strong showing huge gains compared to July and this has helped the Pound gain vs the Euro creating some better opportunities to buy the Euros at cheaper levels than last month.

The European Central Bank decided to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday as well as keeping the current amount of QE the same until March 2017. This briefly helped to strengthen the Euro vs Sterling but the gains were relatively short lived.

Next week the focus will return to what is happening to inflation both here and on the continent.

Since the Brexit the likelihood is that inflation will rise in the UK whilst in the Eurozone the rate of inflation is still worryingly low at just 0.2%.

The Eurozone are due to meet on Thursday and if we see the figures come out lower than expected this could put pressure on the ECB going forward as it demonstrates that the current policy is not having the desired effect.

Next week if you need to buy Euros it may be worth looking to organising this later in the week and if selling Euros then it may be worth doing this prior to Thursday’s release.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

 

Will the Pound continue to make gains vs the Euro? (Tom Holian)

Sterling vs the Euro has started to make big gains since the middle of August as the economic data released by the British economy appears to have been better than expected since the vote to leave the European Union.

The rate to buy Euros has hit its highest level in 4 weeks this week following the UK manufacturing data which showed the biggest monthly increase in 25 years for the sector.

This has helped the Pound to make gains vs the single currency providing a ray of light for anyone needing to buy Euros with Sterling.

This afternoon US non-farm payroll data came out strong as well as US unemployment which is now at 4.9%. This created Dollar strength vs the Euro as it could encourage the US to look at raising interest rates later this month.

The result has caused the Euro to weaken and the Pound to make gains against the single currency.

Next week the focus will turn towards the Eurozone with the European Central Bank due to meet on Thursday.

With Eurozone inflation still struggling at just 0.2% this is likely to put pressure on the ECB to look at monetary policy and provides additional evidence that the previous QE has not been as successful as planned.

Next week could provide us with the best opportunity since Brexit for Sterling to break past 1.20 against the Euro but the gains could be short lived if the resistance barrier is broken.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

Francois Hollande Holds Firm on Free Movement (Ben Fletcher)

The French President made it very clear when meeting with Theresa May that if the UK wants to have access to the single market, then they must accept the freedom of movement. Hollande suggested that if the UK didn’t accept freedom of movement then they would have to accept a different status than the existing relationship.

Despite this firm stance from Hollande, the GBP/EUR rate has moved above the 1.20 level. Whilst Hollande is under a lot of pressure domestically to make sure Britain are given a tough time, there is plenty of Anti-EU sentiment growing in France.

May was able to have what appeared much friendlier talks with German leader Angela Merkel on Wednesday night. Considering that the UK imported over twice as much from Germany last month as they did France, it’s clear which talks are more important. The markets are beginning to recognise some strength for Sterling which could start to create good Euro buying levels.

Yesterday Mario Draghi President of the European Central Bank during his post interest rate decision statement suggested Brexit has not taken effect yet. Draghi emphasised that at the minute the consequences have blown over, but he is of the opinion that there will eventually be some fallout. Whether it comes in the form of businesses putting future projects on hold and not borrowing funds or consumers spending less it’s yet to be seen. But one thing that’s certain is there was very little opportunity in savings before the vote, due to low interest rates so spending may be the only way to improve your pension.

As a trader in a currency brokerage I am able to help you achieve the best rates possible, whilst also assisting with the timing of a transaction to make sure you get the most for your money. If you do have a currency requirements please feel free to send me Ben Fletcher an email at brf@currencies.co.uk.

What to expect next week for Sterling Euro exchange rates (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have touched 4 month highs during the week after a recent opinion poll showed the Remain camp leading the polls.

With just less than 4 weeks to go before the Brexit vote Sterling Euro exchange rates are in for an extremely uncertain month ahead.

On Tuesday Eurozone inflation data is published and this has been a real concern for the European Central Bank.

If inflation shows a fall when it is released we could see this cause some problems for the ECB when it meets on Thursday.

The main driver of Sterling Euro exchange rates is down to the sentiment surrounding the EU referendum and depending how things go during the next few weeks in the run up to the vote this is likely to cause big swings.

Sterling is trading relatively high against the single currency at the moment and I think these rates may not last much longer as investors will be looking to take advantage of these current highs.

If you’re thinking about making an exchange at some point then Thursday is the key day to watch out for next week.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

 

Will Sterling Euro exchange rates improve before the EU Referendum? (Tom Holian)

During the last few days Sterling Euro rates have fallen to their lowest level since November 2014 as fears of a Brexit continue to gather pace.

Recent opinion polls have shown the vote has been getting closer and whilst the uncertainty continues this is likely to weigh heavily on Sterling exchange rates as it means global investors are selling Sterling in favour of other currencies.

If we look back to what happened during the Scottish referendum and last year’s general election we saw huge negative movements for GBPEUR rates in the run up to both events and I think this will be the case during the next 3 months in the run up to the EU referendum.

With Iain Duncan-Smith having resigned earlier this week this has also caused Sterling to fall against the Euro as political uncertainty is never good for the currency involved, in this case Sterling.

On Wednesday next week German inflation data is published and as the Eurozone’s leading economy if the data is better than expected this could cause Euro strength as it will provide further support for the ECB’s recent decision to cut interest rates and increase Quantitative Easing.

If you’re buying a property in Europe during the next 3 months you may wish to consider buying a Forward Contract which allows you to fix an exchange rate for a future date.

Buying forward means you will eliminate the risk of the market falling even further against you.

If you have a currency transfer to make and want to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank then contact me directly for a free quote. Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk