Tag Archives: EUR/GBP

A volatile start to the week for GBPEUR exchange rates and what to expect next?

This week we have seen major fluctuation for GBPEUR exchange rates off the back of the Brexit negotiations. To start the week rumors emerged that the UK had secured the three key aspects to start Brexit negotiations and the pound made substantial gains against the euro.

However throughout Monday afternoon Theresa May confirmed no deal has been secured and the DUP added to Theresa May’s problems by stating they are not happy with a different border control to the rest of the UK, in other words having a soft border with the Republic of Ireland.

I’m still of the opinion that in the upcoming weeks the UK and EU will agree to start trade negotiations at some point early next year, which will provide a period of sterling strength for clients buying euros. Therefore if I had time I would hold off for the time being.

For euro sellers at present you are still receiving what I like to call the ‘Brexit discount’. What I mean by this is compared to Pre Brexit levels you are receiving an additional 15%. To put this into monetary value on a €200,000 transfer you are receiving an additional £25,000.

I would recommend emailing me with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Budget does little to move Sterling Value (Daniel Johnson)

Budget benefits first time buyers

Hammonds’s budget did little to alter the value of Sterling today, historically this is usually the case when the budget is delivered as the expected changes are usually filtered out through the media before hand. The market moves on rumor as well as fact.

Key Changes

  • To benefit London and other expensive areas, the first £300,000 of the cost of a £500,000 purchase by all first-time buyers will be exempt from stamp duty, with the remaining £200,000 incurring 5%.
  • 95% of all first-time buyers will benefit. 80% not paying stamp duty
  • £44bn in overall government support for housing to meet target of building 300,000 new homes a year in the next five years.
  • Councils given power to charge 100% council tax premium on empty properties
  • Compulsory purchase of land banked by developers for financial purposes
  • £400m to regenerate estates with £1.1bn to unlock new sites for development
  • Stamp duty is to be abolished immediately for first time buyers purchasing properties worth up to £300k

Factors that will effect GBP/EUR – Keep an eye on these situations as they develop

Sterling sellers would be wise to keep an eye on the current political situation with Theresa May. It is rumored there are as many as forty MPs willing to put forward a vote of no confidence. If there are forty-eight members and the vote is put forward, May will lose her position. Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question and I would expect GBP/EUR to drop below 1.10.

If an exit bill is agreed there is the potential for Sterling strength as this will pave way for trade negotiations to begin. €20bn is currently on the table , but it is rumored May will up this to €38bn.

Potential Euro weakness could be caused by Merkel’s failure to form a government in Germany, there is the possibility of a new election which will no doubt cause the euro to lose value. Catalonian independence should also be kept a close eye on.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

Major volatility expected for GBPEUR exchange rates

With the spotlight beaming down on UK Prime Minister Theresa May, the pound remains under severe pressure against the euro providing euros sellers with a fantastic opportunity.

Reports were leaked at the weekend that 40 Conservative MPs plan to persuade another 8 Conservative MPs to sign a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister. This is a key reason to why the pound started the week so poorly against all of the major currencies.

Head Eu negotiators Michel Barnier is also mounting the pressure as he gave the UK a 2 week deadline for progression, this announcement was released last Friday therefore we have 8 days until crunch time. Mr Barnier wants to be able to report clear progression at the EU commission meeting in December.

With Brexit negotiations now in full swing and clearing heating up, I expect major volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates for the remainder of the year. If no progression is made I believe Theresa May’s time at number 10 will be limited and therefore GBPEUR exchange rates could fall to the lows that we saw 8 months ago (1.07).

However if progression is made pressure will be released, and GBPEUR could hit a 6 month high (1.15). If you are converting GBPEUR in the upcoming weeks devising a strategy now is wise!

For further information in regards to GBPEUR currency transfers feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Be wary of waiting for further gains for the pound (Daniel Johnson)

Interest Rate hike by the BOE a knee jerk reaction

The recent gains for the pound last week were based on the predicted rate hike by the Bank of England (BOE) and tapering form the European Central Bank (ECB) along with the uncertainty surrounding the situation in Catalonia. The UK economy is shocking state considering where we could be had we not voted to leave the EU. Inflation is now at 3% and average wage growth is at 2.1%, In order to have a stable economy these figures need to be moving at a similar pace, they are not. Unemployment is being lauded as the best levels since the 70’s, but the data has only recently incorporated zero hour contracts. The rate hike from the BOE was a knee jerk reaction to the inflation problem and it is a coin flip as to whether it will have any impact.

There was very little justification for the hike and I am of the opinion we could be in for further losses for the pound against the Euro. Buoyancy levels have been between 1.08-1.15 since June,the last time we hit 1.15 was June. The highest we have seen the market in several months is 1.1450 and if you have a Euro requirement short to medium term it could be wise to move if the market moves close to 1.14 again.

In order for a significant rise Sterling value we need a stable government and clarity over Brexit, both of which I can’t see happening for the foreseeable future.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

Will GBPEUR rise or fall on the UK and Eurozone Interest rate decisions?

The GBPEUR rate has been very volatile lately and uncertain as markets try to digest which direction rates will take in the coming weeks. Overall sterling seems to be on the back foot but we have risen sharply from the lows of 1.07 a few weeks ago, today’s positive GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data is also a big help for the pound.

I do not feel the pound will however just keep rising, tomorrow ECB’s news will be the main driver for the rest of the week, I see around a 70% chance of Euro strength, 30% Euro weakness. This is all based on the fact that the Euro has really been finding favour in 2017 as investors back the Eurozone economy and political situation.

However the latest political uncertainty with Spain, Germany and Austria has unsettled the rates and further weakness down the line could not be ruled out. Longer term weakness on the Euro does seem a real possibility, particularly since the pound has found some form with an improving economy and some certainty over the outcome on Brexit.

If you are making a transfer in the future making plans in advance is key and tomorrow’s news could be a big market mover. I would not be surprised to see some swings of up to 2 cents in either direction as markets digest the latest trends and news on the rates. If you have a transfer to make involving the pound or Euro then tomorrow’s ECB meeting will be important, as will next week’s UK interest decision.

Leaving everything until the last minute is generally not a good idea on the currency markets as it can prove a very costly and stressful situation. Understanding your options and the market is usually the best way forward, for more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson to learn more.

Please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of your position and I can help to provide some information on the best way forward.

Political Uncertainty weighs down the Pound (Daniel Johnson)

Lack of Faith in May as PM

There is little economic data of consequence this week from the UK.  Although data releases have the power to influence the exchange the core issues behind Sterling weakness against the Euro is the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and the lack of stability within the government.

Theresa May’s position as prime minister is coming under increasing pressure with members of her own party showing a lack of confidence in her ability to continue as PM. Former conservative party chairman, Grant Shapps has suggested that there are around thirty MPs who are of the opinion May should step down. There have been calls for a leadership election. During times of political uncertainty the currency in question historically weakens and this is what we are witnessing at present. This also raises the question of how we are going to negotiate Brexit, one of the biggest events for the UK in the last fifty years when the government is complete disarray.

Catalan independence could give some respite for Sterling

The referendum for Catalan’s separation from Spain is being deemed as illegal by the Spanish government. The result from the referendum show a clear victory for those who wish independence, this however has to be taken with a pinch of salt as many did not vote. Many Spanish unionists gathered in Barcelona to demonstrate against Catalan’s separation from Spain. Catalan leader Charles Puigdemont is due to meet parliament today to give credence to the referendum. There could be fireworks which could create Euro weakness.

Strong Eurozone Data could warrant tapering QE

We have seen positive economic data spread geographically and across industry sectors. We are seeing sustained growth from the Eurozone something which hasn’t happened in the past. If this continues we could well see the the ECB make a change to the current QE programming. Quantitative Easing is pumping money into an economy in order to stimulate growth. The ECB are currently adding €60bn a month into to the economy, if this tapered expect the Euro to strengthen significantly.

If you have a currency requirement I would b happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

Be wary of recent gains for the pound over the Euro, they may not continue. (Daniel Johnson)

Potential Rate hike based on misinterpretation of data

Despite Sterling moving above 1.14 this morning against the Euro be wary of thinking a resurgence on the cards. The main catalyst for Sterling strength is the market factoring in a potential interest rate  rate hike. Mark Carney, the head of the Bank of England recently stated there may be the need for a rate hike in the coming months which drove investor confidence and caused the pound to strengthen. This is a technique call jawboning, a technique Carney has used in the past during his role at the Bank of Canada. Essentially rather than making any changes to monetary policy you talk up the value of the currency. This is one of the rare occasions the technique worked. Keep in mind those who actually vote on a change in rates, the monetary policy committee (MPC) voted 7-2 in favour of keeping rates on hold.

The justification behind the potential rate hike is high inflation and low unemployment. High inflation is only healthy for an economy if average wage growth keeps in pace with inflation, at present it isn’t, it actually fell to 2.1%. Unemployment figures are at the best levels since the 70s, but a large contribution to this is down to zero hour contracts. My opinion is the reasoning behind a hike is false, but investors are biting with a 50% chance of a hike in November and a hike factored in by February next year.

The uncertainty surrounding Brexit is still a major concern and if negotiations are not going well, the pound could fall considerable. May’s opportunity to provide clarity on Friday was not taken and at one point she stated “no deal is better than a bad deal.”

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Pound to Euro rate in focus as it’s trading at an 8-year low, will the sell-off continue? (Joseph Wright)

Sterling is continuing to come under pressure this morning after breaching the 1.09 mark during yesterday’s trading session.

The breach of 1.09 has continued this morning as the pair are now trading at their lowest levels since 2009, with 1.0868 the lowest level the pair have hit so far.

This comes at a time where risk appetite worldwide is on the decline after US President Donald Trump’s threat to end the NAFTA agreement and shut down the US government if he doesn’t receive funding for the wall he plans on building along the boarder of Mexico.

There have also been a number of forecasts from major financial institutions recently suggesting the Pound could fall as low as 1 for 1 with the Euro, with HSBC, Morgan Stanley and Citi all making this same prediction for the pair in 2018.

Should these predictions comes true then it may be worth looking into the current exchange rates if you’re planning a large GBP to EUR transfer as there is still some distance to go should they be correct.

Tomorrow at 9.30am there will be the release of UK GDP data for the month of July, and there could be movement between GBP/EUR if this figure is released some distance from its expectation.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Mark Carney Delivers Boost For Sterling (Ben Fletcher)

The GBP/EUR rate touched 1.14 after a 1.5 cent boost as Mark Carney delivered hope of an interest rate hike this year. The Bank of England two weeks ago voted 5-3 in favour of holding rates but it was the first time in 7 years that 3 voted for a hike. With inflation on the charge then the bank could be forced into making a decision soon.

Governor Mark Carney also stressed that he would have no choice but to consider tapering back the current economic stimulus. The bank currently purchase billions of pounds worth of bonds through quanitivativ easing and there’s hope this may slow down. This will be seen a positive for the UK economy and could have a significant effect on Sterling.

What today’s events go to show is how fast the currency markets can move. There has been enormous pressure on Sterling following the UK election and general uncertainty with the Brexit negotiations. This led to Sterling falling to the low 1.12’s this morning, however in the space of 4 hours the rate jumped 1% into the 1.14’s

How can you capitalise on movements?

The speed of the market movement today signifies how hard it can be to make sure you exchange currency at the correct time. Working for a brokerage I am able to help you set rate alerts as notifications. Furthermore set a limit order that means your currency could be automatically bought at your desired level even if the market only reaches the level for a few seconds.

Over the next few days I think it will be unlikely that sterling will find to much more support, however if there was to be a jump into the mid 1.14’s that would see the market at a 2 week high. If you do have a currency requirement and would like to ask any questions about the information above, please don’t hesitate to send me an email at brf@currencies.co.uk.

Election week is heating up. How will it effect the currency market? (Daniel Johnson)

Labor only 4 points behind the Tories

Labor are now very close in the polls to the conservatives. The latest YouGov poll has a gap of just four points. Historically, during an election the currency in question weakens. As a rule, the more uncertain the outcome, the weaker the currency. The conservatives are deemed as a safer bet for the UK economy than Labor. When the snap election was called we saw Sterling strengthen against the majority of major currencies due the significant lead in the polls. This gap has been cut which is why we have seen the pound drop in value.

If the conservatives gain a majority victory I would expect to see Sterling strengthen. If there is not a majority victory expect further falls for the pound. A hung parliament I would expect to see further falls for the pound. Despite many parties stating they are not willing to form a coalition with particular opposition,I’m sure they will soon change their tunes when they see the opportunity for power. As demonstrated by the Lib Dems in 2010.

If there is a coalition this could cause problems for the pound, parties combined with differing manifestos means getting anything through parliament will be problematic, but the major concern is how this will effect brexit trade negotiations. Potentially, Labor could form a coalition with more than one other party which could be considered worst case scenario for negotiations. I would not expect a pound  recovery in the event of this outcome.

If you have a currency requirement it is absolutely crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker who has traded through similar periods of volatility. We have contract options available that can put you in a position to trade even if your funds are not available, this should definitely be considered for those who are waiting on their Euros to released from other assets. This could be a small window of opportunity.

If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to get back to you within 24hrs with a free, trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you already have a currency provider I will be happy to perform a comparison and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to being of help.

 

How will the UK General Election effect GBP/EUR? (Daniel Johnson)

Will the Election cause Sterling weakness?

Theresa May announced a snap election to take place on 8th June. Historically a snap election would cause the currency in question to weaken, however on his occasion we saw the opposite occur. Following the announcement Sterling strengthened over the Euro. It is important to remember the market moves on rumour as well as fact. It was a shrewd move by May to announce the election while the opposition is so weak. Due to the conservatives clear lead in the polls, I am of the opinion a conservative victory is already factored into current rates of exchange. I would expect little movement on GBP/EUR if the conservatives win. It is when the unexpected occurs you can expect significant movement on the exchange.

We can use the recent French election as an example. After the first round of voting, the field was broken down to two candidates. Macron and Le Pen. Macron was so dominant after the first round the Euro strengthened due to Macron’s pro EU stance. However, when his victory was confirmed we saw little movement on GBP/EUR.

Super Thursday

Thursday brings the UK interest rate decision. I would be very surprised to see any change. It will be interesting however to look at how the monetary Policy Committee (MPC) votes. The nine members vote on whether there should be any change in interest rates, if a member’s vote changes from last month’s we could see movement on the market as this is an indication a change in monetary policy could be on the cards.

We also have manufacturing data which is expected to show a slight decline, any variation from the prediction could result in volatility.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. I will provide an individual trading strategy with no obligation to trade. If you already have a currency provider let me know what you are being offered and I am confident in showing you a considerable saving. Feel free to contact me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

 

 

Sterling hits an 8-day high against the Euro as French Presidency fears hit the single currency (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro rate exceeded 1.1750 yesterday afternoon and the pair have held strong above this level so far, as at the time of writing the pair are still trading above this level at the mid-market level.

What’s also interesting to see is that today’s low so far is 1.1756 which indicates to me that there could be support for the pair at this level.

With Sterling gaining slowly since the official start to the Brexit process it appears that the currency has hit its lowest level and it’s now on the recovery, which many within financial markets suggesting that the Brexit has been priced into the Pounds value.

What may help the Pound make additional gains against the Euro later this month is the French Presidential election. There have been fears and hedged bets against the Euro as there’s a chance far-right candidate Marine Le Pen could perform better than many are expecting. This would likely result in Euro weakness due to her plans for a Frexit, but over the past week the increasing popularity of far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon has also weighed on the Euros value due to his views on tax tariffs.

Now that Brexit is underway economic data is playing a more prominent role in the currency fluctuations involving the Pound, so if you’re planning on making a currency exchange involving the pound and another currency do feel free to get in touch regarding these events.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

Will GBPEUR rise or fall on Article 50?

We now finally have a date for Article 50 to be triggered and are expecting some big swings on the market as investors digest the outcome. The pound could possibly rise but I think in the end this will be a sterling negative event. Expectations over the outcome remain constrained to the likelihood that the market is viewing Brexit in a negative light. If the pound was to benefit so much from Article 50 being triggered why has it lost between 10 and 15% of its strength the vote last June?

The counter of course to this argument is that much of the weakness is priced in and we will actually see some movement higher as a relief rally. My greater concern for sterling, however, is the new set of questions we will be faced with once the Article 50 is invoked. What kind of deal will the UK get and how much is the Brexit bill will all weigh on the pound and makes anticipating the next moves tricky as the market tries to digest just what is happening and how it feels.

Overall I do believe the pound is likely to struggle and any Euro weakness we see as a result of the French election will ultimately be neutralised by a weaker pound in this period. We are gearing up for a very volatile period and with the 29th March now set as a date for the triggering of Article 50, all eyes will be on the pound and what may happen.

If you have a transfer to consider involving buying or selling the pound it is well worth making some plans in advance to navigate the uncertainty. We are here to help with proactive assistance to help you achieve your desired higher exchange rate. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Pound to Euro rate trades at a 7 week low, will today’s Spring Budget offer the Pound a boost? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has lost value over the past few weeks, not just against the Euro but across the board of major currencies.

The reason behind the fall can be put down to the uncertainty as to when the UK will begin the Brexit process, and the situation is being made worse as the House of Lords continue to discuss the proposed bill and attempt to make amendments which is negatively impacting the Pound.

Today could be a busy day for GBP exchange rates as Philip Hammond will be going over the Spring Budget. No major changes are expected to the governments current spending plans but I do think a bullish outlook from the UK chancellor will offer the Pound some much needed support. GBP/EUR has lost almost 4 cents in value over the past few weeks after hitting its 2017 high off the back of Euro weakness.

The movements between the GBP/EUR pair in recent weeks may offer an insight into what we can expect between the pair throughout the year. With the Brexit likely to begin this month and a number of key political elections in the Eurozone this year, I think there could be a number of big moves between the pair throughout the year so do feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept updated.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Pound to Euro exchange rates beginning to rise ahead of UK Retail sales figures (Joshua Privett)

Pound to Euro exchange rates have, despite heavy movements daily, closed most days basically where we began, with GBP/EUR still hovering around the 1.17 mark.

This morning retail sales figures for the UK will be released at 9:30, and expectations are already for positive figures which are translating into a fair rally for the Pound.

Initial retail sales figures showed an unusually sharp drop for the beginning of January, but new figures to be released this morning suggest a sharp turnaround for their fortunes.

Retail sales figures are a strong measure for consumer confidence in the UK economy and their willingness to spend, and, as such, tend to have a heavy sway on Sterling value. If the figures come in positively, in this case it should trend well for the Pound.

Without much other information out of note today, this should be the focal point of the marketplace. Positive news may even carry into the weekend where markets close. Given that 1.18 has been a ceiling that the Pound has struggled to break, opportunities today may be wise to be seen as an opportunity, and I am well places to help you seize any peaks which emerge.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, therefore a short conversation could save you a significant sum on an upcoming transfer.

If you wish to call me directly – simply call 01494 787 478 and ask the reception team to be put through to me, Joshua.

Will the Pound to Euro exchange rate struggle to break through 1.18? (Joseph Wright)

It’s been an interesting 24 hours for the GBP/EUR exchange rate after some key economic data releases out of both the UK and the Eurozone.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate did break through 1.18 yesterday morning as investors hoped for a high inflation reading out of the UK for the month of January, but as the figure released came out below analysts expectations the Pound was sold off and almost fell below 1.17 at the inter-bank level.

The reason for the fall is there is less likely to be an interest rate hike from the Bank of England whilst inflation readings aren’t surpassing market expectations.

Now that foreign exchange markets appear to have accepted that the UK will go ahead with a ‘Hard Brexit’ and that it’s likely to begin next month, economic data is beginning to have more of an impact on Sterling’s value whereas prior to the UK PM, Theresa May outlining the governments plans it was mostly sentiment that drove the Pounds value.

Interestingly the Pound has since recovered from yesterday’s fall and the GBP/EUR pair is currently trading around the 1.18 mark once again. It will be interesting to see whether this level will act as a resistance, and I think any readers with an upcoming currency requirement involving the converting of Pounds into Euros may wish to consider the current levels as we could see a fall in the Pounds value as the Brexit begins.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Will February be a positive month for the Pound? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has begun the day positively which could be an indication of how today will unfold, as there is a busy day on the cards for Sterling exchange rates.

Many have coined today ‘Super Thursday’ due to the volume of economic updates which could create volatility between GBP exchange rates. Although no interest rate change is expected the official outcome of the Bank of England’s voting members decision will be announced at 12.00 along with an update on the BoE’s current Quantitative Easing program.

Perhaps the most price sensitive time of the day will be at 12.30 this afternoon when Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England will be giving a speech.

Sentiment surrounding the Pound is positive at the moment as the UK economy continues to impress. Last week GDP figures released showed that the UK is the fastest growing economy within the G7 set of countries and the inauguration of Donald Trump has also boosted sentiment surrounding the UK economy and therefore, the Pound’s value.

If you wish to be kept up to date with the Pound’s price movements and potential key news that could move the markets, feel free to get in touch.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

What can we expect on GBPEUR exchange rates today?

Well folks it is the morning we have been waiting for, today we have the release of the UK’s Supreme Court decision which is at 09.30 am. This long awaited decision by the court will determine whether or not it is legal for the Prime Minister and her Government to trigger Article 50 without the consent of Parliament. It is widely expected to lead to turbulence on rates but the general impression is the previous decision will be upheld and sterling will strengthen.

The outcome is not too clear but GBP strength does seem the likelihood. The reason it is not clear is because the decision might be that Theresa May wins the case and can act without parliament. However we are already aware Theresa May will be seeking more of a ‘clean’ or ‘hard’ Brexit from her speech last week. Therefore it can be argued that if the decision is upheld by forcing Theresa May to go through parliament the pound may weaken because it is derailing some of the plans Theresa May outlined last week which were so well received by the markets. So where before last week we would have expected GBP strength, now there is a possibility the pound may weaken.

Expectations on GBPEUR could be as high as 1.18 and as low as 1.13 in my opinion. Whilst the potency of today’s decision is somewhat tamed by the recent speech from Theresa May where she said she would give parliament a vote on the final bill there are various reports stating the PM has already planned many a contingency plan. With most MP’s expected to back the Article 50 bill for fear of going against the will of the people parliament’s power will be somewhat limited anyway.

I expect GBPEUR to be trading a bit closer to 1.17 by the close of business but expect this could largely be a bit of a damp squib. For GBPEUR buyers however this could be the opportunity you have been waiting for and with the pound likely to come under further fresh pressure in the future whatever the outcome today, clients buying Euros with pounds should probably be looking to capitalise on any improvements.

For fresh updates and analysis on what the Supreme Court case means for your currency exchanges please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Draghi causes Euro weakness (Daniel Johnson)

Inflation worries will not dissipate

Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) spoke after Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released. CPI is a measure of price movements by the comparison between various retail products and services. It is a key indicator of inflation. Draghi caused the Euro to weaken stating that the previous strong inflation data was not enough to take pressure off the ECB. Data today came in as expected with no improvement on the previous month.

Inflation has been  a key issue for the Eurozone, at some points bordering close to deflation. Quantitative Easing (QE) has been put in place in an attempt to combat deflation. The ECB recently dropped monthly increments from €80bn to €60bn in a bold move. I tend to agree with Draghi, I think there are serious issues with regards to inflation in the Eurozone, one set of data by no means indicates a steady rise in inflation.

GBP/EUR Outlook

This year the GBP/EUR pairing will no doubt be extremely volatile. There is still a huge degree of uncertainty surrounding Brexit. A two year target for a full exit from the EU is unrealistic, borderline ridiculous. Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK ambassador for the EU recently resigned stating a realistic time frame for trade negotiations is more like ten years.

The Eurozone could be in for a very turbulent time with three General elections within the bloc. The Netherlands, France and Germany all have the outside chance of having a right wing government coming to power. This would mean there is the strong possibility of another referendum which would cause severe Euro weakness. When you add Greek debt, Italian bank’s bad loans in excess of €360bn and struggling inflation, things are not looking to rosy for the Eurozone.

It is wise to be in touch with an experienced broker during such volatile times. I can keep you up to date with spikes in your favour and also provide a free trading strategy to try and maximise your return. If you already have a currency provider, drop me an e-mail with the rate you have been offered and I am very confident I will be able to show you a significant saving. If you would like to get in touch feel free to contact me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

All eyes on UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit speech later today, where to for GBP/EUR? (Joseph Wright)

Late on Friday’s trading session it was announced that the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May will be giving a speech later this morning outlining her Brexit plans.

The markets have reacted negatively to this news and many are expecting May to make a speech with a ‘Hard Brexit’ bias.

The Pound was already coming under pressure as May gave an interview with Sky News last weekend and commented that the UK cannot keep ‘bits’ of it’s EU membership. It’s comments such as these which are considered ‘Hard Brexit’ leaning and for those planning on making a currency exchange between the Pound and other currencies, any reference to a Hard Brexit from key government members is likely to have a negative impact on the Pounds value.

This morning’s speech is scheduled for for 11.45am, and during the speech May is expected to cover topics such as Brexit timescales, customs unions, immigration, potential transitional deals and EU funding arrangements.

Aside from this morning’s speech, the outcome of the Supreme Courts ruling on whether or not the government require parliamentary approval before invoking Article 50, and formally begin the Brexit process is likely to be one of the biggest movers of Sterling exchange rates. The outcome could be released any day now so it will be interesting to see how markets react. Feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept updated.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.