Tag Archives: EUR/GBP

GBP/EUR trading around a 6-week low, will the pair continue to fall?

The Pound has come under pressure once again today, not just compared to the Euro but across the board of major currencies. Those planning on making a large transfer from Pounds into Euros are seeing the cost of Euros become more expensive on almost a daily basis at the moment, and there are a number of reasons for this.

The financial markets had previously been pricing in an interest rate hike from the Bank of England, up to 0.75% which would be the highest rate since the UK exited the global recession almost 10-years ago. This rate hike is now looking a lot less likely after some disappointing GDP figures released lat week showed a slowdown in the UK economy. According to the preliminary GDP figures, the UK economy has slowed to its slowest level in 5-years and although much of this is being attributed to the terrible weather in the first quarter of this year.

At the same time Manufacturing data released this morning showed that the sector has dropped to a 17-month low. With the UK economy appearing to slowdown the chances of a rate hike have slipped and now Lloyd’s Bank are only expecting a 20% chance of the hike actually happening this month.

Tomorrow there is Construction data to be released and then on Thursday there will be Services data released, all out of the UK. Further weak data in my opinion is highly likely to result in a further sell-off of the Pound, so do feel free to register your interest with me if you would like to be notified should there be a major spike do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound weakens after hopes of a rate hike in May are dampened, where to next for the GBP/EUR rate? (Joseph Wright)

Financial markets had been pricing in an interest rate hike from the Bank of England since some bullish comments from the Bank of England last month.

The hopes of a rate hike have since dampened after some important comments from the governor of the Bank of England. Yesterday evening whilst speaking to the BBC, Mark Carney cooled expectations of a rate hike next month after not confirming that it would actually happen. There have been a few members of the BoE that have already voted in favour of hiking interest rates, and with the rate of wage growth in the UK now picking up and similar to inflation levels, many were expecting the base rate in the UK to rise to its highest level since the UK exited the recession.

Carney commented that he didn’t want to become too focused on the precise timing of the next rate hike, and although he didn’t rule out the hike he didn’t confirm it which has caused the Pound to weaken in value.

Sterling had been strengthening recently after the Brexit transitional deal has been agreed and hopes of the rate hike next month, so seeing the GBP/EUR rate drop from its highs isn’t a surprise.

There is still a rate hike likely this year although when it will happen remains to be seen. Next week UK GDP is due out on Friday, so if you’re planning on making a transfer involving the Pound and the Euro do feel free to get in touch as there is plenty of time to plan around next Friday’s release.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPEUR hit 1.20 this year?

The pound has risen against the Euro and we are now much closer to hitting the 1.20 level than we had been in recent months and really since the Brexit vote. Whilst the rate has been higher than where we are currently, it has been in the 1.19’s at times last February and just after the vote in 2016, the current conditions point towards improvements ahead.

This is down to the progress that is being made on Brexit plus the prospect of the Bank of England raising interest rates. This is being evidenced from the recent twists and turns on the Irish border which are expected to be completed by the end of June. The Irish Prime Minister has stated he wants this finalised by then which should trigger GBP strength once it happens.

Further hints of a deal being reached on a trade basis with the EU would also see the pound much higher in the coming weeks and months. This might take until the autumn but is a real possibility to trigger GBPEUR towards 1.20. The Bank of England might also be looking to raise interest rates or raise their forecast of raising interest rates, this would also be supportive for the pound.

Is 1.20 a guarantee?

Well no, of course not. Nothing is guaranteed on exchange rates! If however, the above conditions are satisfied then it is very possible but this will rely on the Euro not being too strong. The ECB meeting later this month could see a stronger Euro if the ECB are more positive about hiking their rates and withdrawing monetary policy in the future. Any hurdles on Brexit would also hinder the pricing too.

If you need to buy Euros with pounds the outlook is now much more positive but nothing should be taken for granted on exchange rates. For more information on how to track the best rates and assistance with strategies to help maximise your currency exchange, please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

Pound to Euro rate hits a 7-week high before BoE meeting (Joseph Wright)

Sterling has been strengthening throughout the week after news of the Brexit transitional deal being agreed has been met well by the markets.

It will be interesting to see whether the GBP/EUR pair can break above 1.15, because at the moment they are trading comfortably in the 1.14’s and these are around the highest levels for the pair going back as far as June. The 1.15 mark appears to be a ceiling for the pair so far, but there are a number of potential market movers that could push the pair higher.

Later today the start of the EU Summit in Brussels will begin, and the Brexit is expected to be a key talking point for those attending. As previously mentioned the most recent Brexit news boosted markets but it will be interesting to see whether any further commentary this week will affect the GBP/EUR rate. I would imagine that suit sentiments change the Pound will fall as it’s trading at the top end of its current range.

The increase in wage growth has also increased the chances of a rate hike from the Bank of England later this year, with many economists pencilling in May as the next time the Bank of England will opt to make the adjustment.

Some economists even believe that there could be two rate hikes which would most likely result in a stronger Pound as well.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

ECB’s inflation concerns weaken the Euro, will GBP/EUR manage to breach 1.13 anytime soon? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate breached 1.13 today before falling back into the later 1.12’s.

Some bearish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi first thing this morning put the Euro on the back foot throughout the day, although it does appear to have some support around the 1.13 mark.

Draghi stated that there needs to be further evidence that inflation dynamics are moving in the right direction before the ECB will consider ending its extensive quantitative easing programme which appears to have disappointed the markets.

Aside from this issue data this morning showed that there have been contractions in EU employment, and industrial production figures also disappointed out of the EU as figures showed much weaker performance in January than expected.

The Pound on the other hand has been boosted recently as fears surrounding the Brexit and the transitional deal have subdued somewhat. I do think that those planning on making a currency exchange involving the Pound should be aware that details of the transitional agreement are due to go public within the next 10 days so it’ll be interesting to see how GBP exchange perform in the wake of that news.

There is a quiet end to the week scheduled for UK economic data so it’s likely that politics will remain the main mover of GBPEUR exchange rates. If you would like to be notified should there be a spike between GBP/EUR, do make me aware.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Investors hang on Theresa May’s speech at 13.30 (Daniel Johnson)

May’s speech expected to cause volatility

GBP/EUR rates will be mainly dictated by the progress in Brexit negotiations. The Irish border situation has again come into the spot light. UK PM, Theresa May has turned down proposals from Brussels that could potentially annex Northern Ireland by keeping them in the single market.
The PM is due to speak later today and investors wait with baited breath to see if May gives some form of clarity on the Brexit situation. She is widely expected to rule out Britain being part of the customs union with the EU.
There has been recent talks at Chequers with members of her cabinet and it appears there is now some unity between the remainers and the leavers in the cabinet. This is neded considering many have been at loggerheads for some time. I feel many MPs have put their own personal agenda in front of focusing on getting a Brexit deal in place. I would expect May to state there is now a framework in place for negotiations and that she has the backing of her cabinet.

I think May will try and avoid any mention of a hard line stance which has the potential to hurt the Pound. Sterling does have the potential to strengthen, but nothing substantial. It is a question of whether investors believe her comments and credibility.

GBP/EUR has been sat between 1.12 – 1.15 for some time. 1.15 being a resistance point with the GBP/EUR quickly retracting when 1.15 is hit. If you have to move short term buying Euros aim to move around 1.1430 as having too high expectations could prove costly.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.
If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.
If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.
Thank you for reading.

Will today’s speech from Theresa May offer the GBP/EUR rate direction? (Joseph Wright)

Today could prove to be a busy day for GBP exchange rates, as the UK’s Prime Minister is scheduled to speak around lunchtime today according to reports with the Brexit being in focus.

Brexit related news and updates are proving to be the biggest mover of GBP exchange rates at the moment, and time is running out for the UK and the EU to come to an arrangement so I don’t expect to see this pattern change anytime soon.

May is expected to focus on a number of topics in today’s speech such as protecting jobs, protecting any deals that are being arranged and ensuring that any deals made benefit both parties.

As we’ve seen recently the relationship between the UK and EU negotiators is quite frosty, and the issues surrounding the Northern Irish border and the customs union appear to be sticking points.

Mark Carney will also be speaking this morning so there could be movement for GBP/EUR for this reason also, especially if there are references to future monetary policy as the global pick up in the economy is likely to result in a more aggressive monetary policy for the Bank of England than previously expected.

If you would like to be updated in the event of a major move for the GBP/EUR rate today, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will today’s speech give GBP/EUR direction? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has been hovering around the 1.13 mark over the past 24 hours, but a key speech in Austria this morning could offer the pair some direction moving forward.

At 9.30am this morning David Davis, the Brexit Secretary will give a speech on Brexit where he is expected to say ‘Britain won’t turn into a Mad Max-style dystopia’. He’s also expected to say that Britain won’t abandon workers’ rights and environmental concerns after Brexit.

In the build up to this the Pound has softened against some major currency pairs but it’s holding its ground against the Euro so far, leading me to believe that some bullish comments from David Davis are likely to result in GBP/EUR breaching 1.13.

Aside from this morning I think the next month could be busy for GBP exchange rates as within the next month we’re likely to know the UK’s stance on the Brexit transitional deal. Also the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond will announce the latest Spring statement so there are plenty of events that could potentially move the markets.

If you would like to be kept updated in the event of a major market move for GBP/EUR, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Super Thursday results in a stronger Pound, where to now for the GBP/EUR rate? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound was boosted across the board of major currency pairs yesterday afternoon after the Bank of England delivered a far more bullish statement than many had expected.

Although interest rates were held at 0.5% there was talk of the stronger than expected global economy likely to result in a more aggressive approach from the BoE as soon as this year.

Financial markets are now pricing an interest rate hike into the Pounds value and it’s predicted that this could happen as soon as May.

There have also been forecasts of a higher GBP/EUR rate this year with TD Securities predicting that the rate will hit 1.1627 in the first quarter of this year. The rate went over 1.14 yesterday afternoon although there has been a bout of profit taking since as the pair have since dropped below this mark.

In such a sensitive political environment the rates can move quite dramatically so if you’re planning on making a currency exchange involving the pair, it’s worth making me aware of your plans so that if the rate spikes, I can keep you updated.

Those hoping for a stronger Pound should be aware that if there has less bullish comments from the BoE regarding monetary policy, the Pound is likely to lose a lot of the gains from yesterday very quickly.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Brexit talks dictate GBP/EUR levels (Daniel Johnson)

Davis and Barnier loggerheads

We have seen GBP/EUR fall following poor economic data releases from the UK and also negative comments from Michel Barnier in regards to Brexit negotiations. We have seen since Stelring rally back to 1.13 in this afternoons trading.

GBP/EUR will be largely dictated by the progress of phase two Brexit talks. David Davis, the UK chief negotiator and EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier are at loggerheads. Davis has accused EU services of advising UK businesses to leave the UK or risk losing their contracts. This does not sit well with the UK negotiation team considering the UK is still a member of the EU. Barnier could be accused of playing hard ball in an attempt to warn off other members of the EU following in the UK’s foot steps and exiting the bloc.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding Brexit talks I am not of the opinion we will see huge falls in Sterlng value. The market moves on rumour aswell as fact and the level of uncertainty surrounding Brexit at present makes me think it does not have much room for further falls. I would be surpised to see GBP/EUR fall below 1.11 short term. If you a Euro seller I would not be hanging on for small gains.

If you are buying Euros short to medium term I would not have high expectations. The highest GBP/EUR has been in nine months is 1.15 and it has only been available for very small windows of opportunity. Considering the current situation, if the market hits above 1.14 I would consider performing my trade.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. If you wish to maximise your return it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a trading strategy to suit your needs. If you have a currency provider in place I am willing to perform a live comparison and I am confident I will be able to demonstrate a considerable saving. It will only take a couple of minuites and could be well worth your while.
You can trade in safety knowing your trading with Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a company trading for over 16 years. Our accounts are published online at companies house and we are FCA registered.
If you would like my help I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. I look forward to hearing from you.

 

What will happen on GBPEUR for the rest of January?

The pound to Euro rate has been trading in a very tight range for the last few weeks with a high to low variation of 1.12-1.1360. This is presenting a good time of consolidation for clients looking to buy and sell Euros to make plans surrounding better times to look at any currency exchanges. What is definite is that the rate will not stay like this forever and sooner or later we will see a change.

Key events will focus on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting next Thursday 25th January. Investors will be closely monitoring any changes we might see in the economic policy of the ECB which might see a shift on the Euro. Overall expectations for the Euro centre around the reduction in their QE program and possibly the prospect of raising interest rates.

The Bank of England will meet in February, general impressions are that the pound will continue to rise if they do raise interest rates but this might not be until much later in the year. The UK has now falling inflation which would actually see the pound falling as it removes the pressure on interest rate hikes.

GBPEUR has been trading in a range of 1.10-1.145 since October so the prospect of any major deviation from this is limited. I would personally be expecting GBPEUR to remain this kind of range for the end of January. Most prospects for the future focus on the outlook on the pound to Euro rates remaining at these more favourable levels for Euros buyers.

If you have a transfer to consider in the future then making plans in advance is key to maximising the position. For more information at no cost or obligation on the best strategies to maximise your position please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

What will be happening with the pound to Euro forecast this month?

The pound is looking much better against the Euro following the withdrawal agreement which has improved the outlook on the Brexit. Sterling has found some support against the Euro and despite plenty of uncertainty over what lies ahead, sterling is enjoying a much higher range of rates than we have had. The range has been  1.07 to 1.14 so the current levels of 1.12 are not to be easily ignored.

2018 will undoubtedly offer us some better opportunities to buy Euros with pounds following a number of key events including the Italian election in March and the resolution (or not) of the Spanish situation. We will also be looking to the German situation to see if the coalition agreement will actually take place and hold. Whilst agreed today the coalition could struggle and this could see the Euro weaker, if looking to sell Euros and hanging on hoping for big improvements you could end up disappointed!

2018 could be a better year for Euro buyers but the pound could struggle if the Euro continues to find favour which it has been doing recently. Expectations for the pound to struggle can also not be discounted so I would personally be imagining some ranges in the 1.10-1.16 level for Q1 of 2018.

If you have a transfer buying or selling Euros against the pound making the most of the situation and trying to cover your bases on the predictions is sensible. Most clients looking to sell Euros have not had rates this good since September, the lows we hit then were in the 1.08 range, this is the best rates for Euro sellers in nine years!

Overall 2018 has begun fairly quietly on the rates with no major changes but this will not last for long. Market sentiment is leaning towards improvements for the pound against the Euro should the Euro weaken but sterling has many hurdles to overcome. The best way to plan for the future is to create it, if you have a transfer that you are considering please don’t hesitate to contact me Jonathan Watson to discuss further.

Please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk to get the latest news and information on this situation.

Problematic German Colation could cause volatility on GBP/EUR (Daniel Johnson)

Merkel faces troubles forming coalition

There are rumours circulating that Angela Merkel could be replaced by Germany’s defence minister, Ursula Von Der Leyen. Germany is losing faith in Merkel’s ability to form a coalition. Merkel failed to build a coalition following her narrow victory in the election in September. She was attempting to unite her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens, which was dubbed the “Jamaica alliance”.

Merkel is currently trying desperately to form a government with the Social Democratic Party (SDP). The electorate is losing faith, some of the latest polls have shown that 46% wish her to step down immediately. Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question, but with Ursula Von Der Leyen potentially gaining power this does not bode well for Sterling. Von Der Leyen is a firm believer in a in a federalised United States of Europe, she grew up in Brussels and is the daughter of Ernst Albrecht, former director general of the European Commission.
There is also the possibility she will attempt to strengthen the alliance with French President Emmanuel Macron as Von Der Leyen shares his views on reforms to integrate the Eurozone. This is definitely not good news for the Brexit process and could make matters even more problematic and has the potential to impact Sterling.Brexit negotiations will be a key factor in GBP/EUR exchange rates. Phase two negotiations are set to be problematic with David Davis and Michael Barnier already at loggerheads. The next phase will be in regards to trade deals and is probably the most important factor in the Brexit process. How talks progress will have major influence on Sterling value.
I think the pound is set to struggle for the foreseeable future. The pound has been range bound against the majority of major currencies and it is often difficult to take advantage of a spike when there may only be a small window of opportunity. If we look at GBP/EUR, the highest rate of exchange we have seen in the last six months was 1.15, following the announcement of an Irish border deal. There was only a very small time frame to take advantage of the situation, thankfully many of my clients managed to get their trade booked during this time frame. I had rate alerts in place to notify my clients of the spike and also called each one letting them know of the opportunity.

If you have a large currency transfer to perform in the coming days, weeks or months then I will be happy to speak to you directly as I will be willing to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the best possible rate when you do come to trade. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a significant difference so for the sake of taking a few minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can contact me (Daniel Johnson) on dcj@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavor to get back to you as quickly as possible. Thank you for reading.

GBP/EUR – Where Next? (Daniel Johnson)

Brexit phase two could cause prolonged Sterling weakness

The main driver on GBP/EUR at present is Brexit. There is still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding how Brexit talks will progress. GBP/EUR hit 1.15 recently following the announcement a deal had been agreed in regards to Irish borders. The small window of opportunity for euro buyers soon closed however following stupid comments from David Davis. Davis, the secretary of state for exiting the European Union, he thought it would be a bright idea to state the border deal was not legally binding.  The pound fell in value as a result.

There was then the eleven tory MPs who managed to win a vote that any deal agreed by Theresa May at the recent European summit would have to be given the ok by parliament, substantially weakening May’s position and again sterling fell.

Phase two of negotiations is set to be far more difficult than phase one. The important issues such as immigration and trade are set to be addressed. Negotiations are expected to be problematic and lengthy. At present GBP/EUR seems range bound between 1.10-1.15

Potential Opportunity for Euro Buyers

Tomorrow Spanish regional elections will commence. There are several parties that are in favour of Catalonian independence. If it looks like Catalonia will leave Spain and indeed the EU the euro could suffer. Although Catalonia makes up a significant amount of Spanish GDP it is the threat that other regions could follow suit and leave the EU that is the threat to the Euro.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker when the market is currently so hard to predict. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. Have faith knowing you will be dealing with a brokerage in business for over 16yrs, Foreign Currency Direct Plc. We are a no risk entity as we do not speculate on the market and we are registered with the FCA. If you have a currency provider take a minute to send over the rates they offer and I am confident I can demonstrate a significant saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk . (Daniel Johnson) Thank you for reading.

Catalonian election could create Euro weakness (Daniel Johnson)

Close election in Spain could weaken the Euro

Regional elections in Spain commence on Thursday and they are a cause for worry for Brussels. The election is expected to be close between pro and anti independence parties. I would be surprised if any of the seven parties involved mange to secure a majority victory. Political uncertainty is a main factor in currency weakness so this  could create an opportunity for euro buyers.

Catalans have a tough decision. They must stick with a unstable separatist coalition whose leaders have been placed in prison or left the country, or take a chance on alternative parties that fall in line with a united Spain which would no doubt suit Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy’s wishes.

Recent polls suggest a lead for Catalonian secessionists who have used a the slim victory in the last regional parliament to declare independence  and cause a clash over sovereignty and popular that have caused worry far beyond Spain. There was less than half of the electorate involved in that vote.

Catalonia makes up a significant amount of Spanish GDP, but it is the threat that other regions follow suit if independence becomes a reality. If other regions, not just in Spain decide to campaign for independence this could create a serious threat to the Euro.

If you are buying euros with Sterling however be wary of hanging on for significant gains. I would suggest moving if the market hits above 1.14, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations is seemingly anchoring GBP/EUR below 1.15,it is something of a resistance point at present.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

 

 

A volatile start to the week for GBPEUR exchange rates and what to expect next?

This week we have seen major fluctuation for GBPEUR exchange rates off the back of the Brexit negotiations. To start the week rumors emerged that the UK had secured the three key aspects to start Brexit negotiations and the pound made substantial gains against the euro.

However throughout Monday afternoon Theresa May confirmed no deal has been secured and the DUP added to Theresa May’s problems by stating they are not happy with a different border control to the rest of the UK, in other words having a soft border with the Republic of Ireland.

I’m still of the opinion that in the upcoming weeks the UK and EU will agree to start trade negotiations at some point early next year, which will provide a period of sterling strength for clients buying euros. Therefore if I had time I would hold off for the time being.

For euro sellers at present you are still receiving what I like to call the ‘Brexit discount’. What I mean by this is compared to Pre Brexit levels you are receiving an additional 15%. To put this into monetary value on a €200,000 transfer you are receiving an additional £25,000.

I would recommend emailing me with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Budget does little to move Sterling Value (Daniel Johnson)

Budget benefits first time buyers

Hammonds’s budget did little to alter the value of Sterling today, historically this is usually the case when the budget is delivered as the expected changes are usually filtered out through the media before hand. The market moves on rumor as well as fact.

Key Changes

  • To benefit London and other expensive areas, the first £300,000 of the cost of a £500,000 purchase by all first-time buyers will be exempt from stamp duty, with the remaining £200,000 incurring 5%.
  • 95% of all first-time buyers will benefit. 80% not paying stamp duty
  • £44bn in overall government support for housing to meet target of building 300,000 new homes a year in the next five years.
  • Councils given power to charge 100% council tax premium on empty properties
  • Compulsory purchase of land banked by developers for financial purposes
  • £400m to regenerate estates with £1.1bn to unlock new sites for development
  • Stamp duty is to be abolished immediately for first time buyers purchasing properties worth up to £300k

Factors that will effect GBP/EUR – Keep an eye on these situations as they develop

Sterling sellers would be wise to keep an eye on the current political situation with Theresa May. It is rumored there are as many as forty MPs willing to put forward a vote of no confidence. If there are forty-eight members and the vote is put forward, May will lose her position. Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question and I would expect GBP/EUR to drop below 1.10.

If an exit bill is agreed there is the potential for Sterling strength as this will pave way for trade negotiations to begin. €20bn is currently on the table , but it is rumored May will up this to €38bn.

Potential Euro weakness could be caused by Merkel’s failure to form a government in Germany, there is the possibility of a new election which will no doubt cause the euro to lose value. Catalonian independence should also be kept a close eye on.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

Major volatility expected for GBPEUR exchange rates

With the spotlight beaming down on UK Prime Minister Theresa May, the pound remains under severe pressure against the euro providing euros sellers with a fantastic opportunity.

Reports were leaked at the weekend that 40 Conservative MPs plan to persuade another 8 Conservative MPs to sign a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister. This is a key reason to why the pound started the week so poorly against all of the major currencies.

Head Eu negotiators Michel Barnier is also mounting the pressure as he gave the UK a 2 week deadline for progression, this announcement was released last Friday therefore we have 8 days until crunch time. Mr Barnier wants to be able to report clear progression at the EU commission meeting in December.

With Brexit negotiations now in full swing and clearing heating up, I expect major volatility for GBPEUR exchange rates for the remainder of the year. If no progression is made I believe Theresa May’s time at number 10 will be limited and therefore GBPEUR exchange rates could fall to the lows that we saw 8 months ago (1.07).

However if progression is made pressure will be released, and GBPEUR could hit a 6 month high (1.15). If you are converting GBPEUR in the upcoming weeks devising a strategy now is wise!

For further information in regards to GBPEUR currency transfers feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Be wary of waiting for further gains for the pound (Daniel Johnson)

Interest Rate hike by the BOE a knee jerk reaction

The recent gains for the pound last week were based on the predicted rate hike by the Bank of England (BOE) and tapering form the European Central Bank (ECB) along with the uncertainty surrounding the situation in Catalonia. The UK economy is shocking state considering where we could be had we not voted to leave the EU. Inflation is now at 3% and average wage growth is at 2.1%, In order to have a stable economy these figures need to be moving at a similar pace, they are not. Unemployment is being lauded as the best levels since the 70’s, but the data has only recently incorporated zero hour contracts. The rate hike from the BOE was a knee jerk reaction to the inflation problem and it is a coin flip as to whether it will have any impact.

There was very little justification for the hike and I am of the opinion we could be in for further losses for the pound against the Euro. Buoyancy levels have been between 1.08-1.15 since June,the last time we hit 1.15 was June. The highest we have seen the market in several months is 1.1450 and if you have a Euro requirement short to medium term it could be wise to move if the market moves close to 1.14 again.

In order for a significant rise Sterling value we need a stable government and clarity over Brexit, both of which I can’t see happening for the foreseeable future.

If you have a currency requirement I would be happy to assist. You need to have an experienced broker on board in order to take advantage of rates when a brief spike occurs, especially in the current climate. If you have a currency provider already in place I am prepared to perform a comparison against them. It will take minutes and could potentially save you hundreds or even thousands of pounds. I can be contacted at  dcj@currencies.co.uk.

 

Will GBPEUR rise or fall on the UK and Eurozone Interest rate decisions?

The GBPEUR rate has been very volatile lately and uncertain as markets try to digest which direction rates will take in the coming weeks. Overall sterling seems to be on the back foot but we have risen sharply from the lows of 1.07 a few weeks ago, today’s positive GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data is also a big help for the pound.

I do not feel the pound will however just keep rising, tomorrow ECB’s news will be the main driver for the rest of the week, I see around a 70% chance of Euro strength, 30% Euro weakness. This is all based on the fact that the Euro has really been finding favour in 2017 as investors back the Eurozone economy and political situation.

However the latest political uncertainty with Spain, Germany and Austria has unsettled the rates and further weakness down the line could not be ruled out. Longer term weakness on the Euro does seem a real possibility, particularly since the pound has found some form with an improving economy and some certainty over the outcome on Brexit.

If you are making a transfer in the future making plans in advance is key and tomorrow’s news could be a big market mover. I would not be surprised to see some swings of up to 2 cents in either direction as markets digest the latest trends and news on the rates. If you have a transfer to make involving the pound or Euro then tomorrow’s ECB meeting will be important, as will next week’s UK interest decision.

Leaving everything until the last minute is generally not a good idea on the currency markets as it can prove a very costly and stressful situation. Understanding your options and the market is usually the best way forward, for more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson to learn more.

Please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of your position and I can help to provide some information on the best way forward.