Tag Archives: euro strength

Euro strengthens as ECB board member drops hint

We’ve seen the Euro strengthen during today’s trading session, as a member of the European Central Bank has dropped a hint regarding next week’s June ECB meeting.

The ECB’s Peter Praet has given us a strong hint during a speech in Berlin that next weeks meeting could see the ECB signal the end of their assett-purchasing programme. Some economists are expecting to see September as the cut off point which is actually an shorter time frame than initially expected. Personally, I’m expecting to see the Euro strengthen further if this announcement is made, especially after seeing the Euro react positively in the wake of Praet’s comments today in Berlin.

After some weak data releases recently and the Euro’s poor performance, the bullish comments today are a welcome change for Euro sellers as the Euro has been under pressure for a while now.

One downside for the Euro is the current political situation in Italy, and it could determine whether the ECB decides to amend their programme. The government that’s been formed through the coalition of Lega and 5 star movement is considered Eurosceptic and thrifty, and this has concerned the markets may cause the ECB to delay any key decisions.

If you would like to be updated in the event of a major move for the markets, do feel free to register your interest with me. Next week’s meeting will take place on Thursday at lunchtime, so our readers have plenty of time to get in touch and plan around this event.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound to Euro rate hits a 1-month high as Euro weakens due to Italian concerns

The Euro fell another half a percent against the Pound yesterday, after news broke over the weekend that the expected Italian coalition government is no longer looking likely to form.

There were expectations that the five star movement and League would form the coalition over the weekend, but the Italian President Sergio Mattarella cancelled talks after the coalition put forward Eurosceptic, Paolo Savona for finance minister. The markets were already weary of the unfolding’s in Italy due to the populist and Eurosceptic leanings, along with plans to cut back on debt whilst increasing government spending.

The Euro weakness is across the board of major currency pairs as opposed to just between the Pound and Euro, and this is something those hoping for a stronger Euro should be aware of.

Italian consumer confidence levels have also dropped off recently which hasn’t helped the Euros value either, and the cost of borrowing has also surged in recent weeks.

GBP/EUR is now trading roughly within a cent from its highest levels of the last year. The potential downsides for the Pound mostly surround whether a Brexit deal will be agreed in time to keep with the Brexit schedule, and also whether or not the economy justifies an interest rate hike later in the year as many are expecting.

The Pound has predominantly been driven by politics relating to Brexit for some time now, and those hoping for a stronger Pound should be aware of this.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Is home-grown political uncertainty going to weigh on the Pounds value?

Political uncertainty has been behind the Pound’s losses for much of the past two years. Even when it looks like Sterling will stage a fightback it’s usually politics that drive the Pound lower.

At the moment the issues are surrounding the Brexit only from an internal perspective. Sterling exchange rates have come under pressure as rumors of internal issues within the Conservative party and the type of Brexit different factions want is causing disagreements. Jacob Rees-Mogg is the figurehead of a 60-strong pro-Brexit movement within the Conservative party, and there are talks of another snap election to try and pave the way for the type of Brexit they want.

Moving forward I expect Brexit to continue to influence the GBP to EUR exchange rates, although his week economic data is also likely to influence rates as both Inflation levels along with Retail Sales figures will be released over the next couple of days.

The chances are the Pound to Euro rate would be higher than its current position had the Bank of England decided to hike interest rates almost 2-weeks ago as some were expecting them to.

I think that markets will watch this week’s data closely as it could determine monetary policy later in the year. The markets are expecting a rate hike later in the year. If you would like to notified in the event of spike in the rate, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound to Euro rate hits May high this morning, will Euro weakness continue to push the rate higher?

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has hit a month high this morning, after breaking through 1.14 quite comfortably earlier today for the first time in May.

At the time of writing the pair are trading at 1.1425, offering those exchanging Pounds into Euros the chance to make their trade at the best levels in a few weeks. The move this morning looks like its off the back Euro weakness, with the EUR/USD rate hitting a fresh 2018 low over the past day.

The Euro is the worst performing major currency of the past week, and talk of stubborn inflationary levels stopping the ECB from amending the current monetary policy are beginning to dampen sentiments surrounding the Euro also. The European Central Bank has confirmed that there will be no interest rate hikes this year which is also dampened sentiment towards the Euro, so I can understand why the single currency is dropping especially when we consider how strong it’s been over the last year.

There are a few downsides for the Pound that I think Sterling sellers should be aware of. With Brexit talks stalling in the House of Lords and the Northern Irish border also becoming a hot topic, I think there is a chance the Pound could see a sell-off should there be a negative Brexit related update, and the UK economy has also been showing signs of a slowdown to Sterling sellers should be weary.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

How will the ECB and the BoE move rates?

The BoE (Bank of England) and the ECB (European Central Bank) are going to be the main talking points that come up in the weeks ahead as we get further clarification on the final outcomes of economic policy for both central banks. The decisions by both teams will more than likely lead to movement on GBPEUR rates and these two events are well worth monitoring closely.

Tomorrow is the ECB interest rate decision which could easily trigger some volatility in Euro rates since there is a lack of uncertainty over what kind of commentary we will see from the ECB team. President of the ECB Mario Draghi will be leading the helm and give us the latest views on monetary policy moving forward.

Recent ECB Meeting Minutes highlighted a concern about a strong Euro and this is what saw the Euro much weaker a couple of weeks ago. This is really at odds with the behaviour of the Euro at the last ECB meeting where the Euro rose to its strongest point of 2018 against the pound.

The 10th May sees the Bank of England meeting which is likely to be a very strong trigger on the pound as investors are expecting an interest rate hike but it is by no means set in stone. The uncertainty about whether or not the UK will hike plus the lack of clarity about future hikes will all act as trigger points for future volatility on GBPEUR.

If you have any currency transfers buying or selling the pound against the Euro these pieces of news are likely to be a major market mover and it is well worth highlighting any potential transfer to us well in advance. For more information at no cost or obligation over what to expect and what to be prepared for, please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Sterling to Euro rate now sitting comfortably above 1.15, is a move closer to 1.20 now likely?

Yesterday GBP/EUR broke through 1.15 once again, although this time the pair have consolidated above this previous resistance level meaning that the pair are now trading in new territory.

Since the transitional agreement was agreed between the UK and EU negotiators sentiment surrounding the UK economy moving forward has improved, and this is behind much of the Pound’s recent gains. The Euro has also been coming under pressure as inflation levels within Europe aren’t quite as high as the ECB had hoped before cutting back on its asset purchasing program. Global concerns surrounding tensions in Syria and potential clash between the US and Russia are also impacting the Euros value due to the effects on the regions economy.

The interest rate hike next month is now almost a certainty and talk of whether the BoE will raise interest rates later in the year is now beginning to impact the rates, so if you’re planning on making a transfer soon do bear this in mind.

As the year continues I would expect Brexit related news to continue to impact the Pound’s value. The final Brexit agreement needs to be approved by the European Council and across all parliaments in the EU before it becomes official so I expect to see this topic continue to carry potential to move GBP exchange rates quite drastically.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPEUR hit 1.15 again?

The pound to Euro rate hit 1.1520 on the highs yesterday as the Bank of England released their latest meeting summary and interest rate decision. The pound spiked up to this level presenting some of the best opportunities to buy Euros since May 2017. Will this level be hit again and what can clients looking to buy Euros with pounds do to capitalise?

The rates move very quickly and to buy at the highs you need to be prepared. This means highlighting your situation to us here so that we can monitor the rates and track levels for you, this might sounds expensive but it isn’t, it is free. We make our money from any trades we do but can offer an exchange rate which we are positive will save you money over other sources of currency.

If you would like to make any kind of comparison I would be more than happy to speak to you to provide some quotes and discuss the forecast for GBPEUR longer-term.Whilst the positive news from the Bank of England bodes well for the future on GBPEUR the Euro is very strong, the biggest thorn in the side of Euro buyers with pounds is the strong Euro.

To help my clients trade at the higher levels we can offer a Limit order which is an automatic order which will trigger at a pre-determined rate once it is hit. I would suggest an order at 1.15 in the coming weeks may well be hit, if you wish to get an update on the rates please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Will the pound continue to the rise against the Euro?

The pound had been struggling against the Euro for the last few months but finally, we have some reasons to be cheerful. The GBPEUR rate has hit a December high which was only previously reached back in May 2017. With the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting today to discuss their latest policy decision, further volatility could be ahead!

The general impression for sterling is that this run of form should continue as the outlook on Brexit improves. Some positive economic data for the Unemployment figures gave rise to more confidence in the UK economy, Angela Merkel was also reported saying she wished for close ties with the UK which was further evidence of the kind of support sterling is receiving.

Of course, the Brexit talks will begin soon enough and this will make it much more difficult for the positivity to continue indefinitely. Expectations for the pound remain for it to still struggle in the months and weeks ahead as new information on the Brexit is released.

If you have a transfer buying or selling the Euro against the pound then today’s news will be critical to the next direction the rates will take. Personally, I think the ECB will be positive about the future path on reducing their QE (Quantitative Easing) program which will give rise to Euro strength.

The market could, however, be guilty of pricing in the prospect of Euro strength so any deviation from this might actually see the Euro weaken. GBPEUR could easily be over 1.15 or up to 1.16. Equally, it could be back down to 1.12 or 1.13 by the end of the day.

If you have a transfer buying or selling the pound against the Euro we are here to help with the best rates of exchange and provide guided insight and information on the market for you, to help you make an informed decision about what might be the best way forward.

Please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

How will the Pound move against the Euro in 2018? (Tom Holian)

The Pound has remained in a fairly tight range against the Euro since the start of the year as the market appears to be waiting for further progress with the Brexit talks.

With the last meeting going relatively well in early December we saw GBPEUR rates spike in an upwards direction but the gains were relatively short-lived.

The critical issue of Brexit is that it is not just the UK who will be affected but also the European Union.

When the talks initially began last year the Pound came under a lot of pressure as the cards appeared to be in the hands of the other 27 member states.

However, recently the talks have started to progress positively and I think we could see Sterling improve in the future when the next round of discussions begin again in March.

At the moment the market is relatively settled so if you’re happy converting your money at these rates and would like a free quote then contact me directly by calling 01494725353 and ask for Tom Holian when calling.

The next catalyst for change in the short term is due to come out later on this morning with the latest release of Eurozone inflation figures at 10am. Eurozone Inflation is extremely important for the central bank when deciding monetary policy so this morning’s data could impact GBPEUR exchange rates.

The European Central Bank has already previously reduced their QE programme and if inflation remains as expected we could see the ECB possibly hint at raising interest rates at the next monthly meeting in the future which could see strength for the single currency.

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like a free quote compared to using your own bank or simply want to compare rates to buy or sell Euros against your current foreign exchange provider then feel free to get in touch for a free quote. Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to help save you money on exchange rates.

Email me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

What will be happening with the pound to Euro forecast this month?

The pound is looking much better against the Euro following the withdrawal agreement which has improved the outlook on the Brexit. Sterling has found some support against the Euro and despite plenty of uncertainty over what lies ahead, sterling is enjoying a much higher range of rates than we have had. The range has been  1.07 to 1.14 so the current levels of 1.12 are not to be easily ignored.

2018 will undoubtedly offer us some better opportunities to buy Euros with pounds following a number of key events including the Italian election in March and the resolution (or not) of the Spanish situation. We will also be looking to the German situation to see if the coalition agreement will actually take place and hold. Whilst agreed today the coalition could struggle and this could see the Euro weaker, if looking to sell Euros and hanging on hoping for big improvements you could end up disappointed!

2018 could be a better year for Euro buyers but the pound could struggle if the Euro continues to find favour which it has been doing recently. Expectations for the pound to struggle can also not be discounted so I would personally be imagining some ranges in the 1.10-1.16 level for Q1 of 2018.

If you have a transfer buying or selling Euros against the pound making the most of the situation and trying to cover your bases on the predictions is sensible. Most clients looking to sell Euros have not had rates this good since September, the lows we hit then were in the 1.08 range, this is the best rates for Euro sellers in nine years!

Overall 2018 has begun fairly quietly on the rates with no major changes but this will not last for long. Market sentiment is leaning towards improvements for the pound against the Euro should the Euro weaken but sterling has many hurdles to overcome. The best way to plan for the future is to create it, if you have a transfer that you are considering please don’t hesitate to contact me Jonathan Watson to discuss further.

Please email me on jmw@currencies.co.uk to get the latest news and information on this situation.

Will GBPEUR rise hit parity?

I do not believe the pound can fall below parity but we might learn the coming weeks and months about just how likely it is. With the trends that seem in motion at present the outlook for the pound remains very bleak and the outlook for the Euro appears very positive. The Euro is beating the pound on many fronts most notably in the political stakes but also the economic ones too. In fact if you are looking to see the pound rise against the Euro I think you are really struggling to gauge just where any good news will come from!

Most likely for the pound could of course be the prospect of some good news for Brexit, but the Euro might weaken too. The thing with Brexit is that the likelihood of any good news seems quite far off in the distance. In fact there might not be any good news for many years to give investors reasons to start backing the pound. The problem is too that with the Brexit, all the whilst we await further news on what is will actually mean, the UK economy suffers, so does the pound and so does life for Euro buyers with pounds.

Consumers in the UK initially reacting on a wave of optimism to Brexit are now gently beginning to come to terms with the complexities. The seemingly free money racked up on loans for cars, shopping and entertaining themselves won’t just be available forever. Consumer spending has slowed as has business confidence. This is all weighing on the pound and with the German election in September seeming to point towards a Merkel victory, further Euro strength could be up ahead. Parity might not be precisely on the cards but lower rates than today seem likely!

If you have a transfer buying or selling the pound and Euro then making plans around the latest sentiments is key to avoiding unforeseen extra costs. If you wish to get the latest news and information on the market and your situation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for getting in touch and I look forward to hearing from you.

The number of GBP to EUR parity forecasts increases, will GBP/EUR hit 1.1 by the end of the year? (Joseph Wright)

The talk of Brexit negotiations beginning badly is having an impact on the Pounds value against all major currency pairs, but it appears that the GBP/EUR rate has been the biggest loser in all of this so far.

Recent comments from David Davis, the Brexit secretary have added fuel to the fire after he revealed that Michel Barnier ‘is getting quite cross with us’. Michel Barnier is the EU’s chief negotiator which just goes to show that the UK going to need to get a move on regarding its Brexit negotiation plans.

With there being less likelihood of an interest rate hike this year from the Bank of England now that inflation pressures have subsided there have been a number of major financial institutions forecasting parity between the Pound and the Euro in 2018.

In just the last week, Morgan Stanley, HSBC and now City Index have all made this prediction which gives those planning on making a large GBP to EUR transfer a decision to make as the rate is currently just below 1.10.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding the Pound to Euros price movements do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPEUR slip below 1.10?

Dismissed as no longer a likely exchange rate the GBPEUR rate has been very close to the 1.10 level as investors take positions on the Euro which represents a much more secure currency versus the GBP and USD. The Euro has risen to a 2 1/2 year high against the US dollar and is currently enjoying close to a 9 month high against the pound. The outlook for the pound and Euro is such that it would not be at all surprising to see GBPEUR below 1.10 very soon. If you have a transfer buying or selling the pound and Euro making plans around this possible scenario is I believe very much recommended.

If you look at what is driving the pound it is obviously the uncertainty over the Brexit and the economic decline this has caused. More recently the pound had been higher on the prospects of the Bank of England raising interest rates but this is not materialising. Last week Inflation dropped leading to the pound dropping as this effectively rules out any UK interest rate hike in 2017 or maybe further.

There are no guarantees over an interest rate hike for the UK in the future and it is a dangerous gamble for clients buying Euros to be holding back from a purchase just hoping that rates will rise in their favour. Most clients looking to buy Euros should be preparing for further losses as this could easily fall lower.

The Euro is much stronger as politics and economic supports the Eurozone. Expectations on GBPEUR could easily the rate below 1.10, if you have a transfer to make buying or selling Euros for pounds making some plans in advance is wise. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

Very important week for GBPEUR exchanges! Both Draghi and Carney to speak!

Clients looking to buy Euros with pounds have been treading on pretty precarious ground as the market continues to fret about the political make up of the UK in the coming months and years. Theresa May’s deal with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) did little to spark interest in the pound and with the all important commons vote on the Queen’s speech this week sterling should remain at the whim of political developments. I expect the pound could move in either direction with the Euro as much as 2  cents in the coming week depending on a series of important data and events that are taking place.

If you need to move any currency around then making plans in advance is sensible to avoid being caught out like many have in recent weeks as markets take an unexpected turn! We offer a proactive service to help monitor and track exchange rates with a view helping secure the very best levels. If you have a transfer to make and wish for us some assistance please do contact me to find out more.

There is a light belief the Bank of England are making plans to raise interest rates however with the Governor Mark Carney against the idea we could have quite a battle on for that to become reality. We will really need to see some big shifts in the economic data but should we start to see the economic data improving the case for a rate hike will increase. For the Euro the week is fairly light on data but we do have Mario Draghi speaking who with his comments could easily move the Euro rates.

A higher interest rate makes a currency stronger as it attracts investment into that currency. The mere mention of a hike or speculation of one can do lots to a currency and the back and forth nature of commentary over raising UK interest rates lately has seen sterling to Euro rates see-sawing with the sentiment. Both Carney and Draghi’s comments have the potential to move exchange rates and clients looking to buy or sell large volumes of pounds and euros for say an overseas property purchase or business should be prepared.

This week is another potential choppy one with a host of speakers who will be commenting on the potential for interest rates with Mark Carney due to speak today and tomorrow. Markets will be eagerly awaiting any news on how the Governor is viewing events with his Financial Stability report due today. If you have a transfer buying or selling pounds for Euros I would not be surprised to see movements of 1 – 2 cents as we learn principally of developments in UK politics and economics.

If you have a transaction to consider and wish to get any information on the market or trends then please do speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk to get the latest insight and assistance with the timing and planning of your exchanges.

 

Sterling to Euro rate continues to trade towards the lower end of its current range, will this trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound is continuing to come under pressure as we get closer to the election, especially as a number of prominent opinion polls this week have shown that the lead the Conservatives had is diminishing with some suggesting that they may not win a majority of seats required.

If the option polls are correct we could be looking at another Hung Parliament in the UK which I believe would push the Pound lower and probably back towards the 1.10 mark.

The current trend for the GBPEUR pair is between 1.1350 up to 1.1950 although a couple of times towards the back end of last year the rate did touch 1.10 twice before seeing support.

A steep drop for Sterling is in my opinion likely if a Hung Parliament is announced, and I don’t think that the current UK Prime Minister has done herself many favours this week by not attending the debates between the political rivals in the race for number 10.

If you would like to be kept up to date with the latest market updates do feel free to register your interest with me and I’ll be happy to keep you updated.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Has Sterling’s rally vs the Euro come to an end? (Tom Holian)

The UK published a number of lower than expected economic data releases on Thursday which caused the Pound to hit a one week low vs the Euro.

The Pound has had a very good run in recent weeks but the combination of poor Industrial & Manufacturing data caused the Pound to fall vs the single currency.

The UK’s Trade Deficit figures came out at £13.4bn and this is not a good thing for the British economy and in particular the Pound vs the Euro.

Whilst the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold the governor of the central bank Mark Carney cut the UK’s growth forecast from 2% to 1.9% and this led to investor confidence waning in the UK and as such the Pound fell against the Euro.

Inflation has been predicted to rise to 2.8% whilst average earnings are predicted to fall to just 2% which effectively means that the cost of living is going up whilst wages are falling.

German economic data out this morning showed an improvement in GDP compared to the first quarter from 0.4% to 0.6% and this helped the Euro to end the week on a high vs the Pound which has provided some good opportunities to sell Euros to buy Sterling compared to recent times.

We ended this week with US Retail Sales falling in April and typically when we see Dollar weakness this results in Euro strength which has been evident this afternoon.

As we go into next week the focus is likely to return to the UK’s political landscape and with the Tories looking like they will win without any significant challenge could this provide the Pound with a recovery against the Euro?

Having worked for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers since 2003 I am confident of being able to offer you bank beating exchange rtes compared to using your own bank .

Therefore, if you would like further information or a free quote when buying or selling currency then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk

 

What will happen to GBPEUR after Article 50 is triggered?

Once Article 50 is triggered I expect the pound to enter a new phase against the Euro although at the moment I cannot see it breaking it out of the recent ranges of 1.13-1.18 we have been trapped in. The pound and the Euro have both found support in recent weeks as solid economic data and improved political certainty aid both currencies. The US dollar has also weakened lately, the main beneficiaries being the pound and the Euro. Both GBPUSD and EURUSD have both risen 3-4 cent in the last couple of weeks ever since the US failed to increase their interest rate hike expectations.

There is a distinct lack of volatility in the market on GBPEUR at present with only 60 pips (0.6 of 1 cent) movement between the high and the low yesterday. Eager Euro buyers may well see some improvements once Article 50 is triggered but I cannot see it lasting long as there are some big questions on the horizon which I foresee as likely to contribute to a decline in the value of the pound. I cannot see how the UK can come out of these negotiations with a better deal than it has already with the EU.

Clients reading GBPEUR for spikes to buy Euros could find some relief around the time of the French elections although Marine Le Pen is not expected to win so any spikes could prove short-lived. I also feel it would be a risky strategy holding on since who knows how weak the pound will be at that time?

The UK’s relationship with the EU has been the downfall of many a Prime Minister and a politician, David Cameron the most recent example. Can Theresa May navigate this rocky road with her reputation and the Conservative party intact? History tells us that the odds are stacked against any success here.

If you have any requirements to buy or sell pounds and Euros in the coming weeks and months then tomorrow’s news and the political fallout on both sides of the Channel will be key to determining the direction on GBPEUR in the future. If you would like some proactive assistance with the timings of any transfer then please feel free to get in touch as I would be interested in speaking to you and offering some information on when may be the best time to buy your currency.

Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

Jonathan Watson

 

GBPEUR drops to 1 month low

The pound to euro rate has slipped to a 1 month low as sterling buckles under fresh economic uncertainty from the Brexit. Many commentators now feel the UK is likely to enter a period of slow growth which does not bode well for the future. As the economy begins to slow down this is being attributed to the weak pound as it makes overseas purchases more expensive and pushes up costs for many businesses and consumers. The weaker pound we are seeing is likely to continue in the coming weeks particularly as we get closer to the triggering of Article 50.

Article 50 could be triggered any day now and the viewpoint that the pound will strengthen is perhaps not as entrenched as first might have been believed. The overall trend on GBPEUR has been lower lately and personally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see further losses. Much of the recent Euro weakness has now been priced into the current GBPEUR offering which will I believe see the rate struggle to rise much higher.

If you have a transfer involving the pound and the euro making some plans in advance is crucial to understanding what we will expect next. The rate could just as easily slip to 1.10 as fly up to 1.20. I expect the level will find some support now we have had all the bad news in the market priced in.

If you have a transfer to make please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk for the latest trends and themes and some proactive assistance to meet and secure your currency.

Will the Pound to Euro exchange rate struggle to break through 1.18? (Joseph Wright)

It’s been an interesting 24 hours for the GBP/EUR exchange rate after some key economic data releases out of both the UK and the Eurozone.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate did break through 1.18 yesterday morning as investors hoped for a high inflation reading out of the UK for the month of January, but as the figure released came out below analysts expectations the Pound was sold off and almost fell below 1.17 at the inter-bank level.

The reason for the fall is there is less likely to be an interest rate hike from the Bank of England whilst inflation readings aren’t surpassing market expectations.

Now that foreign exchange markets appear to have accepted that the UK will go ahead with a ‘Hard Brexit’ and that it’s likely to begin next month, economic data is beginning to have more of an impact on Sterling’s value whereas prior to the UK PM, Theresa May outlining the governments plans it was mostly sentiment that drove the Pounds value.

Interestingly the Pound has since recovered from yesterday’s fall and the GBP/EUR pair is currently trading around the 1.18 mark once again. It will be interesting to see whether this level will act as a resistance, and I think any readers with an upcoming currency requirement involving the converting of Pounds into Euros may wish to consider the current levels as we could see a fall in the Pounds value as the Brexit begins.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Could Sterling improve against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

Sterling Euro rates have ended the week close to a high after the release of better than expected GDP data as well as positive manufacturing and industrial production data but have still struggled to make any significant gains vs the Euro recently.

The Pound is still being weighed down by the uncertainty caused by Article 50 and at the moment although the government look to be in control there are undoubtedly more obstacles ahead prior to the triggering of Article 50 next month.

However, although Article 50 will be the main factor in determining what happens to Sterling Euro exchange rates over the next few weeks after that the focus will turn to what is happening politically in Europe.

Political uncertainty causes problems for a currency and with the Dutch and French due to go to the polls in March and May respectively then I think we could see problems in the second quarter for the Euro.

Therefore, if you’re looking at selling Euros in the next few weeks now may be close to your best chance.

Indeed, according to some reports we could see the Euro lose up to 10% of its value if Marine Le Pen gets elected.

Le Pen is in favour of leaving the European Union and the Dutch are also voicing a lot of discontent about the European Union so if we see some political change on the next continent over the next few months then I think this will be Sterling’s real chance of longer term recovery.

In the short term UK inflation data is due out on Tuesday which could cause volatility so if you’re considering making a currency transfer then this is likely to have a big impact on GBPEUR rates so make sure you’re prepared to move quickly.

If you would like to save money on exchange rates compared to using your own bank when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly for a free quote and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk