Tag Archives: euro

GBP Rates Before Bank of England Meeting

The Bank of England meet tomorrow for the next interest rate decision where it is expected that interest rates will remain on hold. After a series of weaker economic data the pressure is now firmly off the central bank from raising interest rates tomorrow. A combination of weak retail sales data, a drop in the performance of the services sector and most importantly the sharper fall seen in the Gross Domestic Product numbers all make for a valid reason for the Bank of England to not raise rates. Clients looking to buy Euros may wish to consider moving before the event to avoid potential disappointment.

UK GDP for the first quarter arrived at just 0.1% indicating the lowest growth in the UK in five years. The cold weather brought from the Beast from the East is the main contributor to the weaker data but there hasn’t been a bounce yet which could restore some calm to the markets.

The pound could see a small rally if the central bank indicates that it is still set for additional hikes later this year. However in my opinion the Bank of England are more likely to highlight risks to the British economy especially when considering the continuing Brexit negotiations.

For the Eurozone the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will be speaking tomorrow and he may offer some more clues as to future monetary policy. He has recently cited low inflation as a reason to continue with its asset purchasing scheme which has proved negative for Euro exchange rates. For the moment the central bank is continuing with the tapering of the vast asset purchasing scheme and more of this rhetoric should prove negative for Euro exchange rates.

For more information on sterling exchange rates and the Euro and how to take advantage of any spikes in the currency markets then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Weaker Ahead of Local Elections

UK Prime Minister Theresa May held her Brexit cabinet meeting yesterday afternoon which could offer further direction for the Brexit negotiations and hence the pound. The issue of the day is whether Britain should remain part of the customs union with the EU. Brexit negotiator Oliver Robbins is trying to steer the government towards a customs partnership that would keep some of the benefits of the single market although members of the cabinet are unlikely to vote in favour of this option.

Overnight there has been a strong backlash within the government against the proposed customs partnership and this only adds to the uncertainty for the pound ahead of local elections tomorrow. GBP EUR has fallen to a low of 1.322 this morning. This could be a milestone in the Brexit process and any developments are likely to see new direction for the pound. Political uncertainty continues to be a major driving force for sterling exchange rates.

The pound is set for a volatile few months but it will be later in May when the House of Commons will be forced to vote on a number of amendments that will try to enforce a close relationship with the EU with a view to keeping Britain in the single market. This will be a huge test for Theresa May and a vote of confidence has been mooted which would take the country close to the prospect of a general election.

UK Purchasing Managers Index data for the construction sector could give the pound a boost if there is any pick up following the awful winter which has helped push down UK Gross Domestic Product after the Beast from the East. The services sector numbers will be released tomorrow and could also provide a rally if there is some relief for the markets that it is not all doom and gloom

For more information on the Euro and how to make the most of any opportunities when buying or selling Euros then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP EUR Moves Higher Towards 1.16

The pound continues to maintain the higher ground against the Euro with rates pushing towards 1.16 for the GBP EUR pair. There is currently an excellent opportunity for buying Euros and those looking to secure may be wise to take the risk out of the market place. So far this year when there has been a surge higher for the GBP EUR it has only lasted for a brief period before falling lower.

The outlook does appear to be brighter at present with rates for GBP EUR sitting at an 11 month high although any Brexit developments this week could see the pound fall lower. Sterling is performing better for a number of reasons which hare all contributing to a better economic outlook. UK unemployment is currently at a 43 year low and recent UK retail sales data arrived considerably better than expected. The last retail sales numbers arrived at -0.2% whilst the latest numbers jumped into positive territory at 0.4%.

Politics are likely to have a big impact on sterling exchange rates this week with a parliamentary discussion on Syria later today which follows on from yesterday’s marathon questions session. The other big factor is Brexit and this week sees the start of the third round of negotiations which will tackle the thorny issue of trade.

This is supposed to be the most complex issue to negotiate and any difficulties in these coming weeks could see the pound tumble form its recent highs. There is a still a long way to go in the Brexit negotiations and I would expect to see many more twist and turns creating added volatility for the pound and Euro.

For more information on sterling exchange rates and how to make the most of these opportunities in the currency markets then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

European economic data a little worse than expectations but still reasonably strong

European data released over the past few days has mainly missed analysts expectations, however we have seen the Euro remain fairly stable as the figures were still reasonably good.

Poor weather across Europe can be blamed as one of the main issues in March and I feel that because the snow was just so bad in places this slight miss has been overlooked by most investors and speculators.

We have very little out in terms of economic data today from  the Eurozone but what may be the main market mover for Euro exchange rates today would more than likely be non-farm payroll data over inn the U.S which can impact all major currencies.

EUR/USD is the most traded currency pairing in the world so any larger news from the U.S can impact Euro exchange rates too, positive news from the States can weaken the Euro and negative news can strengthen it.

At the stage of writing this the Pound is the worst performing major currency of the week, although it hasn’t made major losses it still has dropped off a little, economic data for the U.K has not been great but again I would personally focus the main reasons for that on the weather we witnessed in the U.K in March.

If you have a requirement to move Pounds into Euros in the coming weeks and you would like our assistance with your currency exchange then it is well worth getting in contact with me directly. You can email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get in touch with you personally to discuss the various options available to you, including our rate alerts, top exchange rates and the very highest levels of customer service too.

GBP/EUR vulnerable to month and quarter end flows in next two days

Sterling has remained fairly range bound over the week so far, with very little in terms of economic data of note due out as we head towards the end of the calendar month and indeed the end of the quarter.

We do have some growth (GDP) figures for the U.K tomorrow which will show how the economy has performed recently but unless they are drastically different from analysts expectations then I personally do not expect to see this data causing too much in the way of market volatility.

What will be key and what may cause market volatility for this pairing is something known as month and quarter end flows. This is essentially where large institutions and funds net off their positions for the month, leading to large money movements and the market shifting without any prior warning.

There are also fairly substantial payments made from the EU to the U.K at this time of the month and quarter which can also lead to exactly the same scenario, giving anyone that needs to either buy Euros with Pounds or to sell Euros and buy Pounds a tricky situation where they need to have one eye on the market at all times, as it moves by the second.

If you are in the position that you have a transaction such as this to make and you would like our assistance, then we can watch the markets for you and make you aware of any spikes in your favour or adverse movements against you.

Should you wish to take advantage of our services, not only keeping you fully up to date but also ensuring you get the best rate when you convert your currency then it would be prudent to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) directly and I will be more than happy to help you. You can email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to contact you personally.

Sterling Euro close to the best rate this year – What will tomorrow bring?

GBP/EUR exchange rates are now close to the best levels we have seen so far in 2017.

This is due to a number of positive economic and political data releases so far this week and we still have more to come too.

On Monday we had news that the EU and U.K had potentially come up with an agreement on a transition period which was seen as positive by the markets.

Yesterday we had inflation data out for the U.K and this morning we had news that unemployment figures had improved slightly, with most notably average earnings increasing to a level that is now back above inflation.

The reason this is key is that inflation has been above average earnings for a long time now, and that means that the price of goods and services is going up at a faster rate than peoples earnings, meaning the general consumer has less money in their pocket.

Tomorrow we see the start of the latest EU summit and brexit will no doubt be on the agenda so be wary of sharp Sterling movements at any point in the next 24 hours.

On top of this we have the latest Bank of England interest rate decision due out at midday. It would be a surprise to see a change in interest rates this time around, although after all of the positive news I wouldn’t totally rule it out, and the monetary policy statement shortly after should give us an indication on future plans, which would more than likely be confirming that they will be looking at a rate hike in May should nothing happen tomorrow.

If you have an exchange to carry out involving Pounds into Euros, or Euros into Pounds then I can help you achieve not only the best rates of exchange for this but I can help you with the timing of your transfer too.

Feel free  to contact me (Daniel Wright) by email for a free quote and discussion about your transaction on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to contact you personally.



GBP EUR Pushes Higher over 1.13

The pound has made some small inroads against the Euro with rates for the GBP EUR pair breaking over 1.13 this morning. The mood has been slightly positive following the Spring Statement from Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond earlier this week which has helped support the price of sterling. The upbeat speech certainly didn’t provide any reason to sell the pound and if anything provided some reassurance that the economy is still healthy.

The markets are now eagerly awaiting the EU summit 22nd/23rd March where the transitional arrangements for Brexit are likely to be agreed and finalised. This is widely expected to go through without any hitches and could see some relief for sterling exchange rates. However any gains are likely to be limited considering the much harder task of future trade must be negotiated which is expected to commence at the end of this month. The pound could come under pressure here against the Euro if both sides start with strong red lines and if an agreement seems unlikely. Any risk of a no deal scenario is likely to see the pound come under considerable pressure and cannot be ruled out at this time.

My view is that in the medium term should an agreement be reached that works well for both sides then the pound could see strong gains against all of the major currencies including the Euro. Those clients hoping for better opportunities to buy Euros would be wise to consider taking advantage of any spikes as they happen as there are likely to be many new developments over Brexit that are both positive and negative which the pound will almost surely react to.

Economic data is light today for both the UK and the EU although a speech from a European Central Bank member this afternoon could help shape the future direction of the Euro. Tomorrow however should be more interesting on the data front with EU inflation day. Any pick up in in inflation will almost certainly help boost the Euro.

For more information about sterling or Euro exchange rates then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP EUR Rates before Theresa May Speech (James Lovick)

The pound continues to see a volatile period this week ahead of a key speech from UK Prime Minister Theresa May this Friday. GBP EUR is currently sitting just below the 1.14 level and not far off that recent 9 month high seen for the pair presenting some of the best levels seen for buying Euros. Politics in the UK will have a huge bearing on the direction of the pound from here on and Theresa May’s speech is likely to be the trigger for this. After the cabinet meeting at Chequers last week it has been reported that there is some unity between members and may help pave the way forward with Brexit.

Clients looking to buy or sell Euros should keep a close eye on the speech as there is likely to be high volatility on the back of it. If more details emerge as to the future path of Brexit and the approach is viable from all sides then the pound could see a sizeable jump higher. Much will of course depend on how well the EU side in this negotiation receive the speech and if it is immediately discredited then the pound could fall in this scenario. There could be an excellent opportunity to secure funds after the speech so do get in touch to position yourself ready.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has been speaking this week and remains of the view that the outlook for the EU is positive. However on the political front there is likely to be a volatile weekend ahead. The Italian election taking place on Sunday is potentially going to see a rise of more right wing parties including the 5-Star Movement. The anti-establishment party is leading in the polls and could create some issues for the European Union. More details about the proposed grand coalition in Germany are also expected to be announced on Sunday.

To discuss the pound and the Euro and how to achieve the most of market movements then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR has an up and down day – What does the week ahead hold?

Sterling started the day off on the front foot against most majors, getting up to almost 1.14 against the Euro only to drop away again over the course of the afternoon.

With a positive vibe around current Brexit talks and the chances of an interest rate hike in May for the U.K increasing, there are many reasons why investors would have an interest in Sterling once again.

Although Sterling has gained ground this year against most major currencies, it has struggled to make much ground up on the Euro, and comments from head of the European Central Bank earlier today suggested that Sterling will not make a huge impact on the Euro in the near term, not due to poor economic data from the Eurozone anyway.

Draghi mentioned that he felt growth in the area at present was stronger than he had anticipated, that he expects labour market conditions to continue to improve and that the relationship between inflation and growth had remained intact.

All in all this is fairly positive news for the Eurozone and this led to a little Euro strength, bringing GBP/EUR exchange rates back down below 1.1350 at the time of writing this post.

The most notable day of economic data this week will be on Friday, where we have Prime Minister Theresa May due to speak and address Britain on the current Brexit approach and situation. Investors and speculators will be hanging off of every work that is spoken throughout this for any hints on current plans or notable progression with talks.

This may lead to a volatile day for Sterling against the Euro so if you have an exchange to make in the near future be sure to keep a keen eye on the markets over the course of Friday.

If you are looking to buy any Euros with Sterling or should you need to bring a large sum of Euros back into Sterling then it is well worth getting in touch with me directly.

I can help you both in terms of timing your transfer, keeping you up to date with any spikes in the market and of course getting you the best rate when you come to book the deal out.

For a free, no obligation discussion on how I can help you with this important decision please feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch with you personally to see how I can help.

GBP/EUR up as the week closes – Sterling gets a small lift

GBP/EUR exchange rates ended the week on a high as news throughout the week suggested that talks both within Britain and outside of it appear to be going well and progressing reasonably.

Any positive news on Brexit can give Sterling a lift, even if nothing has actually happened just yet the mere speculation of good news does appear to help the Pound.

Unemployment figures earlier in the week had led to a little Sterling weakness but the Pound fought back as the week  neared an end. Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney remained fairly hawkish (or Positive) in his tone when discussing the U.K economy and the chance of interest rate hikes for the U.K in the coming months.

It is now expected that there may be an interest rate hike in the U.K as early as May, and should speculation of this continue then I would expect to see the Pound continue to rise in the coming weeks.

As mentioned above however Brexit news does still create the possibility of a slip should there be any negative release so this really is a market that you need to keep[ a very close eye on at all times.

If you are looking to buy any foreign currency with Sterling or should you need to bring a large sum of foreign currency back into Sterling then it is well worth getting in touch with me directly.

I can help you both in terms of timing your transfer, keeping you up to date with any spikes in the market and of course getting you the best rate when you come to book the deal out.

For a free, no obligation discussion on how I can help you with this important decision please feel free to email me (Daniel Wright) on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to get in touch with you personally to see how I can help.

Sterling Euro exchange rates have a fairly flat week – Retail Sales to finish off the week for U.K data this morning

The week so far has been fairly flat for GBP/EUR exchange rates, seen minimal movement from the high to the low point over the course of the trading week.

We have virtually been stuck in a range of 1.12 – 1.13 with very little volatility due to no major news from either side for investors and speculators to feed off of.

Retail Sales figures are due out this morning for the U.K and this may be a release that could change the flat trend, but this data would need to be fairly off the mark from analysts expectations to have a large impact.

Theresa May is due to be meeting with Angela Merkel today so be wary of any further comments towards brexit and future plans between the two nations, as anything positive may also give the pound a lift as the week comes to an end.

Next week we have U.K unemployment figures on Wednesday morning, with average earnings figures being one of the big points in focus, as this figure could bring forward when the Bank Of England plan to next raise interest rates. Average earnings had been quite a way from inflation figures which is one thing that had held the BOE back from rushing into another hike, however at last weeks interest rate meeting they did comment that another rate hike could be coming.

If average earnings figures have gone up again then expect Sterling strength, as this may lead to betting that a rate hike in May is on the cards for the U.K which would be seen as positive for Sterling exchange rates.

If you need to exchange Pounds into Euros or indeed do the reverse then it would be well worth you getting in touch with me directly, you can contact me by email on djw@currencies.co.uk – You can also see my profile on our company website here:  http://www.currencies.co.uk/about-us/team/daniel-wright/  With over ten years of experience in this sector I can not only secure you the very best rates of exchange but also can give you the very highest level of customer service too.


GBP EUR Rates ahead of Boris Johnson Valentines Day Speech

The pound could see considerable volatility against the Euro later today following an expected valentines day speech from Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson. Politics and Brexit continues to be the biggest driver for sterling exchange rates and any developments here are likely to see market reaction for GBP EUR. The speech which is anticipated to unite remain and leave supporters may give some clues as to the future direction of Brexit. Boris Johnson when he joined the Leave side of the argument back in 2016 resulted in a drop in the price of sterling by around 2% which highlights there could be a considerable market reaction today.

UK inflation data arrived slightly higher than expected yesterday at 3% compare to the expected 2.9% which should in theory help support the pound. The Bank of England have hinted strongly that there may have to be an interest rate quite soon and the markets are beginning to price in such a hike for May.

EU GDP data from Germany was released this morning which arrived at a healthy 2.3% which was above expectation of 2.2% helping support the Euro in morning trade. The official figures for the EU as a whole will be released later this morning at 10am and a good number should help reinforce Euro exchange rates today.

German politics are also set to be the main focus after it has been reported that the Social Democrat Party leader Martin Schulz has resigned as party leader putting into question the future of the proposed coalition government. UK Prime Minister Theresa may will also be in Munich on Saturday meeting leaders where she is set to make a speech about security and cooperation between Britain and the EU. Once again any clues on the future path of Brexit will be eagerly awaited by the markets.

To discuss how these events are likely to impact on your Euro requirement then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Bank of England interest rate decision today – Important day for GBP/EUR exchange rates

As we progress through a fairly volatile week in the financial world, we have an interesting day ahead for those clients looking to buy or sell Sterling as we have the release of the Bank of England interest rate decision, the BOE minutes from the meeting, quarterly inflation report and the monetary policy summary, All of these are due out at midday.

These are highly important for a number of reasons, although there is very little chance of any change in interest rates today, there may be a hint as to when we may expect to see a change in the future. Reuters have suggested this morning that they feel that the Bank of England may be looking to raise rates in the near future due to better than expected growth figures, outpacing forecasts in the build up to Brexit.

Any hint of a closer rate hike than had been expected may give the Pound a lift this afternoon. An interest rate hike is generally seen as positive for a currency and a cut in interest rates is seen as negative, and even the mere speculation of interest rate movement can move the market quite considerably. As an example, bank in November when the BOE actually moved to raise rates we saw a 1.5% rise for Sterling against the Euro which would achieve €3,400 more on a £200,000 exchange into Euros.

If you have a pending exchange to make and you are in the position to move then it may be prudent to make us aware here so that we can keep you fully up to date with the action and highlight any potential opportunities that may arise.

Not only do we offer up to date market information for our readers but we can actually help you with any currency exchanges too, with top foreign exchange rates and a smooth and efficient service too. Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) directly on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to help you personally or to get you a live quote.

GBP EUR Falls Lower as Brexit Discussions Resume

The pound has fallen further today against the Euro with rates falling to a low of 1.1219 before picking up some lost ground in afternoon trade.
The driver for the weakness in the pound is largely as a result of Brexit uncertainty and this week holds a number of important government cabinet meetings which could provide more clues as to where Brexit is heading.

The Brexit negotiations which have resumed this week haven’t started on a particularly optimistic outlook with question marks surrounding the single market and whether or not Britain will have access to it. The other sizeable issue of course is whether UK financial services will be included in any deal and considering services represents 80% of the British economy.

We are likely to see a lot of volatility for GBP EUR as developments unfold surround the terms of any deal. The prospect of a no deal scenario is also a worry for those clients holding sterling who are looking at buying Euros. Those clients who need to sell Euros would be wise to get in touch and consider taking advantage of the recent fall in the price of sterling against the Euro.

Focus now moves to the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday which could result in an even more volatile end to the week. Any positive noises from Mark Carney or any suggestion that interest rates will in fact rise later this year could help see the pound rally although my view is that Mark Carney will be relatively tight lipped at this meeting. Any discussion on Brexit however could see market volatility and this is a subject the Governor has been known to wade into.

To discuss how these key events this week are likely to impact on your own individual currency requirements then please feel free to get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Retail sales figures fail to impress this morning, positive brexit outlook still holding Sterling strong

We have just had the release of Retail Sales figures for the U.K a short while ago and unfortunately figures have failed to impress and fell short of analysts expectations.

Usually this would have hit the Pound fairly hard and we would have had Sterling weakness, however it does appear that we are currently witnessing a bout of positive vibes surrounding Brexit negotiations and progress and this is currently giving the Pound a bit of a boost.

My opinion at present is that I would not be surprised to see Sterling exchange rates have a good year, there is of course the potential banana skin that Brexit talks may suddenly take a turn for the worse and at that point the Pound may struggle, but in general things to appear to be ticking along fairly well, and due to this fact alone I think Sterling will reap the benefits of this.

The European Central Bank do have a part to play and should they move to completely cut back on their QE program and start to make more positive economic decisions then the Euro could still continue its fairly good start to the year.

One possible setback for the Euro is the Italian elections which are due on 4th March, these should bring uncertainty for the Euro as there is still quite a bit of uncertainty over the potential victor, so keep your eyes peeled for more news throughout February for this.

If you have a Sterling/Euro exchange to make (either buying or selling) in the coming days, weeks or months and you would like assistance not only on the timing of your transfer but also with achieving the very best rate of exchange too then I can help you personally.

Feel free to get in touch with me (Daniel Wright) by emailing me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will be more than happy to get back to you. Having now worked at the same foreign exchange brokerage for over a decade I am well placed to assist you and will be more than happy to help

Pound drops lower once again as interest rate hikes suffer setback and Euro gains on the Dollar (Daniel Wright)

GBP/EUR exchange rates have dropped to the lowest point we have seen since since the U.S elections back in November, which is due to two reasons we saw yesterday.

Firstly, we had two members of the Bank of England speaking during the course of yesterday afternoon and both of those members dampened expectations of a U.K interest rate hike happening  in the near term, which led to the Pound losing further ground against the Euro and most major currencies too.

An interest rate hike is generally seen as a positive for the currency concerned as it makes it more attractive to investors, and the markets can more on speculation as well as action, so even the mere hint of a hike moving closer can lead to the Pound gaining strength, we saw this shortly after the last Bank of England interest rate decision where they confirmed 3 out of 8 members had voted in favour of interest rates going up in the U.K and this gave Sterling a boost.

The chances of a hike appear to have decreased again after yesterday which is why the Pound has lost a little value.

Secondly, due to more issues over in the States surrounding Trump and Trump JR the Dollar has lost plenty of ground against the Euro. With EUR/USD being the most traded currency pairing in the world when you see a large amount of money coming out of the Dollar and going into the Euro, the Euro can gain strength against most major currencies too, making it more expensive to buy.

Unfortunately economic data is still not dragging the Pound back up and we have unemployment figures and average earnings due out at 09:30am today. Average earnings are of great importance at present as inflation is increasing and making goods and services more expensive where as peoples earnings are actually increasing at a slower pace which is not a good sign for the economy. Should this trend continue people will have less and less money to spend and this may cause further problems for the economy as the year moves on.

We really do need to see a catalyst for the Pound to start moving in the right direction again but at present that has not materialised. The worry now is that we are starting to see the true impact of the referendum vote start to shine through now and that Sterling may be in for a tough month ahead.

If you have Euros to buy or indeed sell then it is more important than ever to make sure you maximise your exchange rate. Feel free to contact me (Daniel Wright) to discuss the various options available to you. Yo ucan email me on djw@currencies.co.uk and I will get back to you personally.



GBP EUR Before Queens Speech on Wednesday (James Lovick)

Sterling Euro exchange rates have come under renewed pressure today after comments this morning from the Bank of England governor Mark Carney. He suggested that he was not overly concerned by the rising level of inflation and that interest rates would remain low for some time. This resulted in an immediate fall in the price of sterling as those expectations of when the first interest rate hike for year are put back once again.

The pound has fallen by 0.75% against the Euro today with rates for GBP EUR having reached a low of 1.1345 this afternoon which has created an excellent opportunity for those clients looking to sell Euros. For anyone selling Euros the combination of all the recent political uncertainty and the start of the Brexit negotiations has resulted in a weaker pound.

Another speech tomorrow morning from another Monetary Policy Committee member Andy Haldane could see additional volatility for the pound. EU Purchasing Managers Index data for the manufacturing and services sectors could help boost the Euro further.

Queens Speech – Impact on Sterling

The Queens speech on Wednesday has the potential to see some political fireworks with the pound reacting according. Any attempt by Jeremy Corbyn to vote down the Queens speech could see the pound react badly with sterling weakness to be expected. However my view is that once an agreement has been made between the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and the Conservative party then this should be seen as welcome news for the British economy and the pound should rally on the back of the news.

If you would like further information on Euro exchange rates or any of the major currencies and to discuss how we can assist then please feel free to contact me on 0044 1494 787 478 and ask one of the team for James. Alternatively, I can be emailed directly on jll@currencies.co.uk

Critical 36 hours for GBPEUR exchange rates!

GBPEUR has opened this morning flirting around the 1.15 mark as markets digest events for a crucial couple of days for this pairing. The headline event is of course the UK election which takes place today, results due early tomorrow morning. Today however we have the latest ECB (European Central Bank) meeting which will be closely followed for information relating to any changes in monetary policy from the ECB. All in all I expect the predictions will be correct and GBPEUR will rise as Theresa May secures a much larger majority although I don’t see a landslide.

GBPEUR has slipped down to almost 1.13 in the last week as markets begin to price in the possibility of a Labour win or indeed a hung parliament. With the election taking place at such a crucial time with Brexit running in the background markets are being careful to not be caught out. Markets were surprised by the Trump and Brexit votes of last year which saw big swings on exchange rates, this time investors are being very careful about placing too high an expectation on any particular outcome.

Overall nothing can be taken too much for granted as historically the Conservative vote has been largely underestimated in the polls, this was true following the 2010 and 2015 election so may well see Theresa May winning more the the polls indicate. I expect GBPEUR would fall down to say 1.12 on a hung parliament, 1.10 on a Corbyn victory and 1.16-1.17 on a majority of 50-80. Anything above 80 would probably lead to rates approaching the very high teens, should May match Thatcher’s landslide of 144 then I think 1.20 could be on the cards.

If you have a transfer to make making some plans around these important events is I believe crucial to getting the best deal and not missing out. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Could the Pound fall further against the Euro? (Tom Holian)

Pound Euro exchange rates have had a difficult last fortnight with a loss of over 3 cents. The problem that the British economy appears to be facing at the moment is that of rising inflation.

This was confirmed in both the Quarterly Inflation Report as well as the Consumer Price Index which came out earlier this week.

Rising inflation is a problem for the UK and part of this has been caused by the strength of the US Dollar. As we import so much from overseas and GBPUSD exchange rates have fallen by approximately 15% since last year when the Brexit vote was held the cost of living is rising.

Indeed, unemployment which came out at its best level in 45 years should have in theory strengthened Sterling vs the single currency but as Average Earnings came out lower than the current rate of inflation this means that although more people are in work their spending power has been reduced.

Increasing inflation would usually be tackled by the Bank of England with an interest rate hike but the central bank has a problem in that Quantitative Easing seems to be the monetary policy used in recent years. The Bank of England voted earlier this month to keep rates on hold with only one member voting for an interest rate hike.

Therefore, I think we will see the Pound struggle against the Euro until the issue of inflation is tackled or it comes down by itself.

With less than 3 weeks to go another question that I am frequently being asked is what will happen to the value of the Pound once the general election takes place.

Usually we would see the Pound strengthen if the existing government maintains the status quo but I think this time round as it is so obvious that the Tories will win I think this has already been priced in to GBEUR exchange rates.

If you would like further information or for a free quote when buying or selling Euros then contact me directly and I look forward to hearing from you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk



Will the Pound improve after the French election? (Tom Holian)

We are now just a short time away from the French election which will be key in the short term movement for GBPEUR exchange rates.

At the moment it looks more than likely that Macron will win on Sunday with a clear majority vs Marine Le Pen but for me if the vote is closer than most expect then I think we’ll see some problems ahead for the single currency.

Le Pen is one of the most controversial candidates in France for years as she has campaigned for both a French referendum on the European Union as well as leaving the Euro in favour of the French Franc.

With the UK election campaign now in full swing I think as the Tories have done so well with the local elections I don’t see any real challenge from any other party and this is likely to provide Theresa May with a clear path to victory.

Over the month I think we could see the Pound improving against the Euro challenging 1.20 on the Interbank level.

However, once the general election is concluded the focus will then return to the Brexit negotiations and Theresa May has already said she’ll make things difficult and therefore I think we’ll see the Pound start to fall once the talks commence.

Having worked in the foreign exchange industry since 2003 for one of the UK’s leading currency brokers I am confident of being able to offer you both bank beating exchange rates and also help you with various contract types typically not available from your own bank.

For further information or for a free quote when buying or selling Euros then feel free to contact med directly and I look forward to hearing form you.

Tom Holian teh@currencies.co.uk