Tag Archives: exchange rates

Pound to Euro rate hits May high this morning, will Euro weakness continue to push the rate higher?

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has hit a month high this morning, after breaking through 1.14 quite comfortably earlier today for the first time in May.

At the time of writing the pair are trading at 1.1425, offering those exchanging Pounds into Euros the chance to make their trade at the best levels in a few weeks. The move this morning looks like its off the back Euro weakness, with the EUR/USD rate hitting a fresh 2018 low over the past day.

The Euro is the worst performing major currency of the past week, and talk of stubborn inflationary levels stopping the ECB from amending the current monetary policy are beginning to dampen sentiments surrounding the Euro also. The European Central Bank has confirmed that there will be no interest rate hikes this year which is also dampened sentiment towards the Euro, so I can understand why the single currency is dropping especially when we consider how strong it’s been over the last year.

There are a few downsides for the Pound that I think Sterling sellers should be aware of. With Brexit talks stalling in the House of Lords and the Northern Irish border also becoming a hot topic, I think there is a chance the Pound could see a sell-off should there be a negative Brexit related update, and the UK economy has also been showing signs of a slowdown to Sterling sellers should be weary.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Is the trend of a strong April for the Pound about to end?

The seasonal trend of the Pound gaining throughout the month of April looks set to end this month, which is coincidentally the 13th month unlikely when the Pound is compared with the US Dollar.

The Pound tends to perform well against most major currency pairs including the Euro during April, with the trend being attributed to the new tax year and a lot of dividend payments being made around this time in GBP denominated equities.

It looks like 13th time unlikely as the Pound is trading below its starting point versus the US Dollar and the Euro when the month begun. Sterling has been coming under pressure recently after some poor Retail Sales figures and lower inflation and wage growth figures. The drop in the Pounds value and sentiment surrounding it have led the Bank of America Merrill Lynch to drop their bet on the Pound gaining in value during the month of April.

I also think that Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney failing to confirm the expected interest rate hike from the BoE next month has also impacted the Pound negatively, and the issues surrounding whether or not the UK will leave the EU Customs Union is also weighing on the Pounds value.

If you would like to discuss any upcoming transfers you’re planning, I think next months BoE meeting on the 10th of May is key, and feel free to get in touch to plan around this event and ask for my opinion.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GDP to influence exchange rates this week

The recent positive run for GBPEUR exchange rates came to an end last week, when UK inflation feel sharply and Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney couldn’t confirm the prospects of an interest rate hike in May. Sterling fell from the 1.16s to the 1.14s causing concern for euro buyers. Any further commentary from the Bank of England over the next couple of weeks before the decision will have the potential to cause further fluctuations.

Other UK economic data in the form of Retail sales was another reason why the Governor failed to state a hike is just around the corner. UK GDP numbers are set to be released this week and the predictions are for a slight fall as the adverse weather conditions continue to cause a problem for the UK. If GDP falls I expect that an interest rate hike may not occur which could be a problem for euro buyers but good news for Euro sellers.

In other news the house of commons is set to meet this week to discuss the customs union. The House of lords voted in favour of remaining within the customers union, however Theresa May has made it clear that the  UK is leaving. If this story continues to escalate again this could put pressure on the pound.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR currency transfers feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

Pound to Euro rate hits a 7-week high before BoE meeting (Joseph Wright)

Sterling has been strengthening throughout the week after news of the Brexit transitional deal being agreed has been met well by the markets.

It will be interesting to see whether the GBP/EUR pair can break above 1.15, because at the moment they are trading comfortably in the 1.14’s and these are around the highest levels for the pair going back as far as June. The 1.15 mark appears to be a ceiling for the pair so far, but there are a number of potential market movers that could push the pair higher.

Later today the start of the EU Summit in Brussels will begin, and the Brexit is expected to be a key talking point for those attending. As previously mentioned the most recent Brexit news boosted markets but it will be interesting to see whether any further commentary this week will affect the GBP/EUR rate. I would imagine that suit sentiments change the Pound will fall as it’s trading at the top end of its current range.

The increase in wage growth has also increased the chances of a rate hike from the Bank of England later this year, with many economists pencilling in May as the next time the Bank of England will opt to make the adjustment.

Some economists even believe that there could be two rate hikes which would most likely result in a stronger Pound as well.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

ECB tomorrow the major news on the Euro!

The Euro is benefiting from improved certainty from the political situation in the Germany and stronger economic news for the Eurozone. Political and economic factors are encouraging investors to increase their holdings of the Euro as there is a belief the currency will only improve in the future. Tomorrow is a key economic event from the ECB (European Central Bank) which could see volatility on the Euro.

It is quite surprising the Euro did not come unstuck following the Italian election, the lack of clarity over the final outcome from the result could easily have seen the Euro losing value. Despite anti-establishment parties gaining over 50% of the vote the single currency has held its own. Whilst the Italian news is concerning, the other factors mentioned above, political strength from Germany and good economic news across the whole Eurozone region, have all seen the Euro stronger.

If you need to or wish to look at any currency transfers buying or selling Euros then understanding these events can help to make an informed choice about when to enter the market. The ECB decision on interest rates tomorrow and Press Conference that follows could really help you to achieve a better deal for both buyers and sellers, depending on what happens. Personally, I would not be surprised to see the Euro stronger but often any movements on such events are quick and catching these ‘spikes’ requires a bit of planning.

For more information about securing an exchange rate at the best ‘time’, why not get in touch with us to learn more. We can offer a safe, secure system to transfer money internationally at the very best rates of exchange. Please contact myself Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Will the Pound to Euro rate manage to break out of its current trend? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has been trading within quite a thin range for some time now, as the pair have failed to break out of the 1.12 to 1.1450 trading range significantly for some time now.

Sterling has struggled to rise above the 1.15 mark since June of last year, so those of our readers following the rates hoping for good times to make their transfer should consider that GBP/EUR is still towards the top end of its trend.

In order for our readers to base their trades off of levels in the 1.15’s, they will need to see Sterling improve to levels not seen for some time.

Friday could be the busiest day for GBP/EUR exchange rates this week due to the high volume of data set for release as well as a number of key persons set to speak. It’s day’s such as this that can result in a break out of a long term trend so those planning on making a transfer should consider planning around busy days of economic data. This is something we can help with so do feel free to get in touch if you wish to discuss this further.

There will be construction data released at 9.30am on Friday, and both Theresa May and (UK PM) along with the governor of the Bank of England (Mark Carney) will be speaking so expect any new Brexit breakthroughs to result in movement for the GBP/EUR exchange rate.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Major swings for GBPEUR exchanges rates

Today GBPEUR exchange rates have been up and down like a roller-coaster. At midday the Bank of England released their last interest rate decision which provided a fantastic window for clients that were purchasing euros. GBPEUR central levels of exchagne reached 1.1450 as the Bank of England hinted an interest rate hike is on the horizon.

The reason for the change in stance comes down to the quarterly inflation report suggesting wage growth numbers which improved last month, will continue to improve throughout 2018. Furthermore the Bank of England announced a recent survey showed private sector companies believe they will be paying their staff an additional 3.1% by this time next year.

Also in the inflation report, the Bank of England are suggesting that the worrying inflation levels will continue to decline back towards the 2% target. Their reasoning is that they believe the pound will receive a boost throughout the year, making goods and services cheaper followed by at least 1 interest rate hike within the year. Mark Carney the Governor of the Bank of England also helped the value of the pound by suggesting the jobs market will remain strong with unemployment remaining at a four decade low.

However investors have sold off the pound this afternoon looking for higher returns, which has meant the pound has fallen back below 1.14.

If you reading this website for the first time as you need to convert GBPEUR, feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 Monday morning and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

If you are already using a brokerage and would like to a free quote email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands.

GBPEUR faces up to reality!

The pound to Euro rate has dropped back into the lower 1.13’s as investors brace themselves for the realities of Brexit to hit home. Expectations have been very high recently following a number of high profile comments from the various actors in the Brexit pantomime. Angela Merkel stated she was looking forward to a successful relationship with the UK and Philip Hammond was clearly laying the case for a softer Brexit.

Fast forward a week and the reality of the difficulties and weakness of the UK’s Brexit position has become more apparent. Headlines surrounding UK government infighting has left the pound struggling to hold onto last week’s gains with a move back into the 1.12’s highly likely. Of course, this behaviour for the pound against the Euro shouldn’t take us too much by surprise, it is what has been happening on the pair ever since the EU Referendum became a market concern back in January 2016.

With the Euro remaining strong against the pound and continuing to be an expensive currency to be betting against, there is the real prospect of some positive news making it even more expensive for Euro buyers taking a gamble on their purchase. Important economic data this week will be Thursday and Friday when we have a whole new set of economic data released which will give some further clues on the state of the UK economy.

If you have a transfer buying or selling the pound against the Euro then making plans in advance is crucial to giving yourself the best chance to maximise the position. General impressions from the market are that we will see sterling rise as Brexit becomes better understood but this will likely take month or years to manifest.

If you have a transfer buying or selling the pound against the Euro then there are a number of issues to be conscious of to make sure you are maximising the position. For more information at no cost or obligation please don’t hesitate to speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

What will happen on GBPEUR for the rest of January?

The pound to Euro rate has been trading in a very tight range for the last few weeks with a high to low variation of 1.12-1.1360. This is presenting a good time of consolidation for clients looking to buy and sell Euros to make plans surrounding better times to look at any currency exchanges. What is definite is that the rate will not stay like this forever and sooner or later we will see a change.

Key events will focus on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting next Thursday 25th January. Investors will be closely monitoring any changes we might see in the economic policy of the ECB which might see a shift on the Euro. Overall expectations for the Euro centre around the reduction in their QE program and possibly the prospect of raising interest rates.

The Bank of England will meet in February, general impressions are that the pound will continue to rise if they do raise interest rates but this might not be until much later in the year. The UK has now falling inflation which would actually see the pound falling as it removes the pressure on interest rate hikes.

GBPEUR has been trading in a range of 1.10-1.145 since October so the prospect of any major deviation from this is limited. I would personally be expecting GBPEUR to remain this kind of range for the end of January. Most prospects for the future focus on the outlook on the pound to Euro rates remaining at these more favourable levels for Euros buyers.

If you have a transfer to consider in the future then making plans in advance is key to maximising the position. For more information at no cost or obligation on the best strategies to maximise your position please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

EU summit to take centre stage

Tomorrow and Friday EU officials will meet at the EU summit in Brussels to discuss everything that is impacting the Eurozone at present but the main focus will be the Brexit negotiations.

In recent weeks the UK and EU have come to a gentleman’s agreement in regards to the divorce bill, EU citizens rights and the Irish border. Nothing has been finalised however Michel Barnier has announced that stage 2 negotiations can now begin.

At the EU summit all of the EU leaders should confirm Mr Barnier’s thoughts which could give the pound a further boost against the euro. However as news broke last week that a deal has been reached i’m not expecting to see major fluctuations. In fact I would expect that GBPEUR breaks through and sits above 1.14 by the end of the week.

It’s quite clear to see that the UK and EU officials are trying to come to an agreement in regards to Brexit, and therefore I am optimistic the pound could continue its recovery against the euro in the early months of 2018.

For clients that are converting euros into pounds a €200,000 transfer generates you an additional £25,000 now compared to Pre Brexit levels. Personally I wouldn’t take the gamble any longer and would look to sell my euros and buy sterling as soon as possible.

The other key economic event that will impact GBPEUR exchange rates this week is the Bank of England’s interest rates. The Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold at 0.5%, however as inflation has risen to a 6 year high, the minutes should outline how the central bank plan to tackle the worrying high levels.

If you are buying or selling euros this year, today is the day to get in touch. Many people still believe the only way to transfer large amounts of money is through the bank and this is not the case. The company I work for enables me to give better exchange rates than high street banks which consequently means the individual saves money.

I would recommend emailing me with a brief description of your requirements and your timescales (this is very important, the length of time you have will change your options) and I will email you with my strategy and the process of using our company drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

GBPEUR spikes above 1.13

Overnight key Brexit developments have been made and euro buyers have reaped the rewards with exchange rates spiking from the lower 1.11s to the lower 1.13s. Reports are suggesting that the UK has offered €50bn as a divorce settlement which equates approximately to £44bn. No agreement has been made however it appears that the EU have welcomed the figure which in my eyes is a break through in the Brexit negotiations.

In recent weeks the amount of euros the UK would pay the EU as a divorce settlement has been the sticking point. Early this year the UK were suggesting they wouldn’t pay a penny to leave the EU and the EU wanted €100bn. It just shows developments have been made.

The next question is what next? This development shows quite clearly that the UK and EU want to eventually come to an agreement and I am optimistic that this will eventually happen. However the Irish border could be the next sticking point as Northern Ireland have stated they do not want a hard border.

On the 14th and 15 of December the EU will decide whether trade negotiations can begin. If enough progression has been made I expect the pound could continue to rise against the euro.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR exchange rates feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you and the process of using the company I work for drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Will GBPEUR keep on rising?

The pound has finally bounced back against the Euro as weakness and uncertainty in the German political situation opens the door to a more unsettled Euro. The prospect of a second election or Angela Merkel stepping down as Chancellor has seen the Euro undo many of its gains over the last few weeks. What lies ahead for the German Chancellor and how could this influence the Euro?

I expect that there will either be fresh German elections or that Merkel will be forced to step down in order to allow a fresh coalition. It appears that the outlook for the GBPEUR is now much better for clients looking to buy Euros with pounds, we have seen the rate rise above 1.13 this morning.

News that the UK is agreeing a Brexit bill of up to £40bn is also helping the pound which is now benefiting from some of the uncertainty in Germany. With the Spanish Catalonian election next month and then the Italian election next year the outlook for buying Euros has suddenly improved. If you have a transfer buying Euros then making some plans around this potential rise is a smart move since Euro buyers have not had a huge amount to cheer in recent weeks!

We are close to the best time in 3 months to buy Euros with pounds and the rate could rise even further depending on the way the market is going. Overall impressions of the rates are that of course sterling could come under renewed pressure owing to Brexit but for now the tide has turned. Euro buyers should not be too greedy but should be carefully making plans around this improvement.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you in the future.

 

Pound to Euro rate improves after German PM Merkel’s future looks uncertain! (Joseph Wright)

The Euro dropped in value today after Germany, the engine room of the EU is currently facing a political crises with many political commentators calling it the biggest crises of current Angela Merkel’s tenure.

Late on Sunday exploratory talks broke down between her Christian Democrats, Bavaria’s Christian Social Union and the Liberal Free Democrats broke down, ruling out an obvious path for Merkel to form a coalition government.

With German coalition talks collapsing it’s not surprising to see the Euro fall, as political uncertainty tends to weigh on the underlying currency.

An issue for the UK moving forward may be a pause to Brexit negotiations due to Merkel’s issue, but as it stands the GBP/EUR rate has benefited from the headline grabbing story.

At the same time the Pound opened the week strongly against all major currency pairs after speculation regarding the UK’s Brexit Bill continues. The current rumours suggest that the bill will increase to £38bn and the Pound has been boosted off the back of this news as if it’s true, it may clear the path for Brexit negotiations to progress.

If you’re following the GBP/EUR pair because you have an upcoming currency requirement involving the pair, feel free to get in touch and register your interest.

This week the Autumn Budget will take place so there could be movement, so this event is certainty worth watching.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Bank of England interest rate decision looming (Dayle Littlejohn)

The Bank of England meet today to announce the latest interest rate decision, and forecasters are suggesting that an interest rate hike will occur. If the Bank of England decide to raise interest rates this will be the first hike in 10 years and the likelihood is that GBPEUR exchange rates will receive a further boost. Personally I expect GBPEUR exchange rates to break through 1.1450 if the central bank raises by 0.25%.

However if the central bank disappoint and fail to live up to their own hype, I expect the pound could plummet like a stone and GBPEUR exchange rates  could drop 1-2%. To summarise I think buying euros will become a little cheaper or become a lot more expensive.

After the decision the Governor of the Bank of England will address the public in regards to the monetary policy committee decision. For new readers the Governors words have the potential to shift exchange rates by the matter of cents, therefore keeping a close eye on his wording is important. Unfortunately for many of my clients they haven’t got the time to watch Mr Carney’s speech this afternoon and that’s where I come in. If you are buying euros short term and would like to be kept up to date with today’s announcements feel free to get in touch.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR exchange rates feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you and the process of using the company I work for drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Will GBPEUR rise or fall on the Bank of England decision?

The Bank of England meet tomorrow to discuss their latest interest rate decision which is predicted to see the pound higher but there are no guarantees! The pound has already been rising against the Euro, the Euro itself weaker from the outstanding problems in the Catalonia region of Spain. GBPEUR will largely be driven by the Bank of England decision at 12 noon, plus the commentary after. GBPEUR could be in for a very busy day so if you need to buy or sell Euros getting in touch sooner than later could be best!

Overall the pound is stronger as markets are pricing in positive news but there could easily be surprises along the way. If you have a transfer to make then we could easily see some improvements for the pound but with much of the good news priced in for the pound we will need to see some very positive news to see a big change.

With much of the good news priced in, the scope for disappointment is high. Expectations are set for the Bank of England to raise rates but if they don’t then the GBPEUR level could easily slip and probably come down by as much as 2-3 cents. On good news however it may only climb a cent. Currently GBPEUR is at the best rates in 3 months so if you need to buy Euros gambling on further improvements carry risk!

If you are looking to buy or sell the pound against the Euro in the future then please make sure you are up to date with the latest trends and themes on the market. I am a specialist currency broker here to help with the planning and execution of any transfers that you will need to make in the future. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you!

Please email me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

Rate hike expectations pushing up the Pound, will this trend continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has continued to climb against the Euro in the lead up to this Thursday’s interest rate decision by the Bank of England.

It will be at 12pm tomorrow when the decision will be announced and markets are expecting to see the base rate hiked by 25 basis points to 0.5%. This will be the first hike in 10 years if it goes ahead and likely to make financial headlines, although should it go ahead like many expect I think there will be quite a muted response by markets as the hike is already being priced in to the Pound’s value.

I think the risk lies in the not being a rate hike, as the Pound would be likely to fall quite dramatically due to there being many disappointed investors as well as speculators quick to try and take advantage of the fall.

For those of our readers planning an upcoming currency exchange involving the Pound, and hoping the expected rate hike will make the Pound gain more value I would be weary as due to the expectations of it happening I personally think it’s unlikely there will be much market reaction.

If you wish to be updated should there be any major movement do feel free to register your interest with me, as working on a trading floor allows us to react instantly to market movements.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPEUR rise or fall on the UK and Eurozone Interest rate decisions?

The GBPEUR rate has been very volatile lately and uncertain as markets try to digest which direction rates will take in the coming weeks. Overall sterling seems to be on the back foot but we have risen sharply from the lows of 1.07 a few weeks ago, today’s positive GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data is also a big help for the pound.

I do not feel the pound will however just keep rising, tomorrow ECB’s news will be the main driver for the rest of the week, I see around a 70% chance of Euro strength, 30% Euro weakness. This is all based on the fact that the Euro has really been finding favour in 2017 as investors back the Eurozone economy and political situation.

However the latest political uncertainty with Spain, Germany and Austria has unsettled the rates and further weakness down the line could not be ruled out. Longer term weakness on the Euro does seem a real possibility, particularly since the pound has found some form with an improving economy and some certainty over the outcome on Brexit.

If you are making a transfer in the future making plans in advance is key and tomorrow’s news could be a big market mover. I would not be surprised to see some swings of up to 2 cents in either direction as markets digest the latest trends and news on the rates. If you have a transfer to make involving the pound or Euro then tomorrow’s ECB meeting will be important, as will next week’s UK interest decision.

Leaving everything until the last minute is generally not a good idea on the currency markets as it can prove a very costly and stressful situation. Understanding your options and the market is usually the best way forward, for more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson to learn more.

Please email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk with a brief overview of your position and I can help to provide some information on the best way forward.

GBPEUR to fluctuate 5% in the upcoming months (Dayle Littlejohn)

Brexit negotiations seem to be heating up as both parties have promised to accelerate negotiations therefore I am expecting major volatility with GBPEUR exchange rates. 

Rewind the clock to the end of July, many of the leading banks were predicting by the end of the year parity for GBPEUR exchange rates, however UK interest rates gave the pound a boost which has led to Banks re thinking their forecasts.

At the moment GBPEUR exchange rates appears to be fluctuating in the lower teens and I expect by Christmas or potentially in the early new year for GBPEUR exchange rates to be either in the 1.06-1.07 or 1.17-1.8 range and the factor that is going to drive the pound higher or lower will be the Brexit negotiations.

A no deal puts the UK under more uncertainty and therefore I expect the pound to plummet, where as an agreement in regards to EU citizen rights and the divorce settlement bill will lead to trade negotiations and therefore a stronger pound.

The problem we have is we are unaware how the upcoming negotiations will go. For clients that are selling pounds to buy euros or euros to buy pounds, the question you have to ask yourself is what do you think will happen between the UK and EU. If you are unsure and not prepared to take the gamble, as some people are saying it’s like playing roulette, feel free to get in touch to discuss how we can save you money on your transfer.

For further information in regards to currency feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

 

All eyes on Inflation figures this morning (Joseph Wright)

This morning could be important for Sterling exchange rates, not just this morning but moving forward as analysts are expecting to see UK inflation levels hit a 5-year high.

The weakening of the Pound since the Brexit vote has pushed up the rate of inflation in the UK, and for a while now the inflation level has been well above the Bank of England’s 2% target. Many analysts in the city are expecting to see the rate hit 3% for September, and if this happens there is a high chance that the Bank of England may look to hike interest rates for the first time in over 10 years.

A 3% inflation level would be a 5-year high and the governor of the Bank of England has hinted at hiking rates as soon as next month.

A high reading this morning would likely result in Sterling strength as the markets would expect to see a rate hike from the BoE, and at the same time if the inflation level is lower than expectations, I think there’s a chance the Pound would fall.

Mark Carney will also be speaking later this morning as he testifies to MP’s on the Treasury this morning. It will be interesting to see whether he discusses inflation and potential rate hikes and if he does it will be interesting to see how the Pound reacts.

Aside from today’s busy morning this Thursday could also be busy as Retail Sales data will be released which could impact Sterling depending on how the figures perform.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Events that could impact GBPEUR exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

The main economic talking points at present which have the potential to have a major impact on GBPEUR exchange rates are if the European Central Bank  makes adjustments to the quantitative easing program on October 26th and whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates on November 2nd.

Members of the European Central Bank including the President Mario Draghi, have hinted that decisions could be made in October. However inflation numbers fell last month therefore I don’t expect the ECB to make cuts this month. Nevertheless the chances that they will hint towards making cuts in the near future are high, therefore this event could lead to euro strength.

Even though GBPEUR exchange rates have been on the decline in recent weeks, the market has priced in that there is a strong chance the Bank of England will raise interest rates on the 2nd November.  Due to the pounds surge throughout September I expect some of the inflationary pressures to have been curbed. Couple this with a poor run of economic data throughout October the likelihood of an interest rate hike I believe have diminished.

If my predictions above materialise I expect GBPEUR will fall below 1.10 throughout November. Good news for any clients selling euros to buy pounds. 

Short term many of the ECB members are speaking today. Know doubt one of the members will be quizzed about quantitative easing and interest rates. Speculators will be watching closely to see whether any hints are made to tapering. If you are converting GBPEUR short term, today’s event could have a major impact on the exchange price you receive.

If you are converting GBPEUR in the upcoming months and are looking to achieve competitive rates of exchange whilst receiving regular economic information feel free to email me the reason for the transfer (company invoice, property purchase) the timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you along with the process of converting currency. My direct email address is drl@currencies.co.uk and I look forward to receiving your email.