Tag Archives: GBP/EUR forecast

Buying Euro rates dip following Draghi speech (Joshua Privett)

The Pound has suffered further this week and buying euro rates have now hit some of their lowest levels since the beginning of the year.

Tuesday’s inflation figures once again (seemingly the third time in as many weeks) changed the narrative on whether the UK would be raising interest rates anytime soon.

Some were stating this could occur as early as this November – however, this drop in interest rates has at least put the currency back by 3 months.

Today, the poor news for buying Euro exchange rates doubled down on itself, with news coming out of the Eurozone.

Another rollercoaster has been on the future of the Eurozone’s financial policy coming from the ECB. Similarly there have been murmurs about whether they will be moving away from their now two year long bout of emergency financial stimulus package.

This was largely introduced from a slowing Eurozone and one dealing with the Greek Debt crisis back in 2015. But now optimism in the Eurozone is relatively high and growth data is rivalling that of the UK.

Today Mario Draghi, the Head of the Eurozone Central Bank, came out fairly positive towards the potential to wind down this emergency financial help – contradicting some sentiments from one of his sub-ordinates last week who indicated that such a move was very unlikely.

These rollercoasters are set to continue, which is why it is so important to be kept abreast of current events and developments to ensure you maximise your currency transfer.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro based currency requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your currency return.

You can contact me directly by calling +44 1494 787 478 and asking the reception team to speak to Joshua.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you significant sums of money on a prospective transfer.

What can we expect next for GBPEUR exchange rates?

What is the likelihood of GBPEUR rate rising much higher is a very common question I am being lately. Trying to second guess the market and hoping for big improvements often leads only to disappointment when expecting a certain outcome. The pound against the Euro is in a very volatile situation at the moment which could easily see the rates quickly and unexpectedly changing, keeping up to date with the developments is a crucial factor to ensuring you maximise the transfer.

This week we have a number of important data releases which will be crucial to determining the next steps on the currency pairing. Overall I expect the market to favour sterling weakness but much of this has been built in to the current rates and therefore we will need some fresh new bad news so clients looking to buy sterling need to be careful holding back just waiting for rates to improve.

We aim to offer clients a clear forecast of current evens and work proactively to help determine the very best times to trade and buy currency. If you have a transfer to consider then understanding the coming news and information is critical to getting the best deals. For more information at no cost or obligation on what to look out for in the coming weeks to help you get the best deal please do feel free to contact me directly by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Tomorrow is UK Inflation and then Thursday is the latest European Central Bank Interest Rate decision, these are big events and trading them properly and understanding the outcomes could potentially save you hundred or thousands depending on the outcomes.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you and working with you to achieve the maximum for your transfer.

 

GBP/EUR Back Above 1.14 (Ben Fletcher)

Sterling’s positive end to the week continued all the way to the close of business this evening as the GBP/EUR rate shot up to a high of 1.143. This has come as a considerable surprise following the fall to 1.118 on Wednesday, which convinced many further losses were on there way. Now that there has been a resurgence in the rate, the rise to 1.15 is a hot topic. The last time the rate reached that level was 6 weeks ago and that was only available for a few hours.

There is still a considerable amount of uncertainty surrounding Sterling, especially as the Great Repeal Bill is to be released shortly and every opposing party to the Government plans to challenge their plans. However some of the major concerns appear to have taken a slight back seat and at least for the last 48 hours no new negative headlines have appeared. It’s thought that earlier in the week Sterling was oversold as markets became over pessimistic on the UK conditions, with that in mind the recent jump is just making up lost ground.

GBP/EUR, where to next?

Now that we have seen favorable Sterling the movement the next step will be a jump above 1.15. This week we saw members of the Bank of England talk down a interest rate hike in the near future which was the main cause of the GBP/EUR rate dropping over a percent. Arguably if there was to be talk of a hike, that percent may return which would see a jump to the 1.15’s.

If you have any questions with regards to my forecast above please don’t hesitate to contact me. I would be more than happy to discuss your requirement and provide a strategy that will work for your unique needs. I may also be able to offer a potential method of completing the transfer. Please send me a brief description of what you’re looking to do at brf@currencies.co.uk

 

GBP/EUR, Calm Before the Storm? (Ben Fletcher)

Yesterday the GBP/EUR rate hardly moved half a cent across the whole of the day with very little changing in the market. Until the drop on Friday due to poor economic data for the UK, the rate had spent most of the week hovering around the 1.14 mark. This morning the rate is back above 1.13 and in my opinion there could be a opportunity for the rate to lift a little today.

MPC Members Speak Today

Two of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members will speak today Andy Haldane and Dr Ben Broadbent. The MPC are thought to be investigating whether a interest rate hike would be beneficial for the UK in the short term future. The two committee members who vote with the other 7 will provide their insights, if they’re hawkish and suggest a hike may happen that could provide market optimism boosting Sterling. Alternatively Andy Haldane is returning for his second stint on the MPC and was previously known for his Dovish attitude. There is of course every chance this is a non-event, but with little positivity around for Sterling any spikes in the market should be capitalised on.

In my opinion over the course of the next few weeks the GBP/EUR rate may move back towards the 1.14 but I find it hard to see anything much more substantial happening. The second round of Brexit talks will begin next week and we may get some further updates into how they’re progressing. However Theresa May is coming under so much pressure in the UK, even as much so that MP’s are calling for her resignation. If May was to resign then another general election would only add to further uncertainty and the GBP/EUR rate may drop below 1.10.

If you would like to ask me any further questions with regards to my forecast, please feel free to send me an email to brf@currencies.co.uk. If you send me a brief description of what you’re looking to achieve, I will respond within a few hours. Hopefully I can assist with devising a strategy to help you achieve your goal and potentially help execute the trade.

Buying Euro rates see slight improvement to begin the week (Joshua Privett)

We have begun this month with some welcome and similar gradual improvements to buying Euro rates as seen in the back end of June. But Euro buyers are still not getting a wow factor when looking at exchange movements.

To put this in perspective, even since the election GBP/EUR exchange rates have only seen a difference between the high and the low on exchange rates of 1.6 cents. Given that we are funnelling through an incredibly tumultous period in the history of the United Kingdom, such movement defies belief from my years in the industry.

So why the inactivity?

Two fronts. Given the high levels of political uncertainty trading is notably thinner on currency markets from Foreign Currency Direct’s perspective. Without heavy trading you cannot have the same changes to buy and sell rates for Euros which many were used to seeing before politics had such a large sway on exchange rates – masking the same dominance economic data used to bring to day to day trading activities.

Secondly, we are still waiting for answers. Despite the strong rhetoric on the importance of the election and the results on the Brexit negotiations and what can be achieved, we have heard little in terms of definitive sign-posting.

Markets are still very much in the dark on this, explaining the limbo on exchange rates that Euro buyers and sellers alike have been forced to suffer through.

However, a quote that is ringing truer and truer is that uncertainty is the new norm.

Economics is beginning to shine through once more, with day to day economic data having a larger sway than it once did.

These have generally been Sterling positive and should continue to be so in the short-term.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a buying Euro or Sterling selling requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer aimed at maximising your currency return.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere.

 

 

 

Queens speech vote to influence GBPEUR exchange rates (Dayle Littlejohn)

As Theresa May failed to win the General Election by a majority the Conservative Prime Minister has been in negotiations with the Democratic  Unionist Party (DUP) and a minority Government has been formed. Members of Parliament will have the final vote on the minority Government later this afternoon.

For Jeremy Corbyn to win and effectively vote down the queens speech members of the conservative party will have to vote against Theresa May and I just cant see this happening. Therefore I expect the minority government to be officially formed by the end of the week which could lead to further sterling strength against the Euro and exchange rates to drift towards the mid teen territory.

Looking further ahead Theresa May’s position as Prime Minister will continue to be scrutinised and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the PM resign in the upcoming 6 months. This view is supported by American Financial Service City Group as they informed all of their clients that they expect Theresa May will resign in the upcoming months due to a Conservative rebellion. If she did resign the new Prime Minister could call another General Election which would weigh down on the pound further.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR exchange rates feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with the options available to you and the process of using the company I work for drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

Very important week for GBPEUR exchanges! Both Draghi and Carney to speak!

Clients looking to buy Euros with pounds have been treading on pretty precarious ground as the market continues to fret about the political make up of the UK in the coming months and years. Theresa May’s deal with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) did little to spark interest in the pound and with the all important commons vote on the Queen’s speech this week sterling should remain at the whim of political developments. I expect the pound could move in either direction with the Euro as much as 2  cents in the coming week depending on a series of important data and events that are taking place.

If you need to move any currency around then making plans in advance is sensible to avoid being caught out like many have in recent weeks as markets take an unexpected turn! We offer a proactive service to help monitor and track exchange rates with a view helping secure the very best levels. If you have a transfer to make and wish for us some assistance please do contact me to find out more.

There is a light belief the Bank of England are making plans to raise interest rates however with the Governor Mark Carney against the idea we could have quite a battle on for that to become reality. We will really need to see some big shifts in the economic data but should we start to see the economic data improving the case for a rate hike will increase. For the Euro the week is fairly light on data but we do have Mario Draghi speaking who with his comments could easily move the Euro rates.

A higher interest rate makes a currency stronger as it attracts investment into that currency. The mere mention of a hike or speculation of one can do lots to a currency and the back and forth nature of commentary over raising UK interest rates lately has seen sterling to Euro rates see-sawing with the sentiment. Both Carney and Draghi’s comments have the potential to move exchange rates and clients looking to buy or sell large volumes of pounds and euros for say an overseas property purchase or business should be prepared.

This week is another potential choppy one with a host of speakers who will be commenting on the potential for interest rates with Mark Carney due to speak today and tomorrow. Markets will be eagerly awaiting any news on how the Governor is viewing events with his Financial Stability report due today. If you have a transfer buying or selling pounds for Euros I would not be surprised to see movements of 1 – 2 cents as we learn principally of developments in UK politics and economics.

If you have a transaction to consider and wish to get any information on the market or trends then please do speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk to get the latest insight and assistance with the timing and planning of your exchanges.

 

Sterling rises as negotiations begin, but will the Pound to Euro rate continue to climb as they continue? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has edged up today against the Euro as well as against other major currency pairs, making the buying of oversea’s currencies a cheaper proposition than yesterday.

The reason behind the positive movements for the Pound can be put down to the latest updates regarding the Brexit process. It appears that the early stages of the Brexit negotiations are going quite well, which has boosted sentiment surrounding the UK economy moving forward and therefore the Pounds value.

I think that moving forward if the negotiations continue to go relatively smoothly, we can expect to see the Pound begin its recovery from its current levels, especially when when consider how the Pound is trading around historical lows against many currency pairs at the moment.

Against the Euro Sterling has lost around 5 cents over the past month or so, so there’s certainty scope for the currency to gain if things go to plan.

Next week Friday is likely to be once of the busiest days for GBPEUR as GDP data for the UK will be released around 9.30am. The expectations are for 2% annual growth so we’ll see how the currency performs in the wake of the news.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound to Euro exchange rates set for marginal fall and strong rise next week (Joshua Privett)

When entering the latter part of the month, economics takes a back seat, and as such the rollercoaster of politics will be at the forefront in governing Pound to Euro rates this week.

We begin with the French local elections, the final part of the French election cycle. This will decide whether the new President, Emmanuel Macron, has the majority he needs to govern effectively.

He is proposing a sweeping change to French labour laws and a host of new pro-business policies. This is why his initial election victory saw the Euro gain almost two cents against Sterling. Should a Parliamentary majority form, then it’s likely we will see further Euro strength given his ability to govern effectively will be cemented. Well, as much as French unions will permit.

In any case, polling is today and the result itself should see further Euro strength when markets re-open tomorrow.

However, the UK is also trying to consolidate political stability. There was a delayed announcement for the Conservative-DUP partnership last week, but the initial hints were enough to see the Pound flirst upwards agains the Euro. Confirmation should realise those hinted gains for Euro buyers.

Then their plans for a Government manifesto will have to be voted on in Parliament given that the Conservatives do not have the majority they need to rule as a single party. Furthermore markets are waiting to hear further news on whether a softer Brexit approach will be taken.

Euro sellers may be wise to seize any opportunities created by the French election result tomorrow. Conversely anyone with a GBP/EUR requirement should be monitoring political developments next week in order to give yourself the best opportunity to puchase at any peaks which emerge rather than a trough.

I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying or selling requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.

Sterling rises after Bank of England hints at a rate hike (Joseph Wright)

The Pound appears to have consolidated above 1.14 against the Euro, making the buying Euro rate cheaper for those holding Sterling.

There are current 8 voting members of the BoE and yesterday almost half of them voted in favour of hiking rates, which caused the Pound to jump by over half a cent as soon as the news broke around lunchtime.

The reason behind the Bank of England’s voting members that would like to see a hike is most likely the rising rate of inflation in the UK, which is eating into consumers spending power as wage growth is beginning to stall within the UK.

Raising the interest rate would act to lessen the blow and it’s also a positive for the Pound so I do think we can expect to see the Pound climb if rates are going to rise for the first time in a decade.

Later this morning the Bank of England’s Quarterly Bulletin will be released which could send the markets either way depending on what’s said. If you would like to be kept updated with data releases that can impact your upcoming currency exchange plans do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will the pound to Euro rate continue to rise?

The pound to Euro rate will continue its volatility in the coming weeks as we get closer to understanding just what type of Government the UK will have in the future. Overall expectations for the future remain unclear as we try to understand what Brexit means and what type of  government the UK will have in the future. It appears a ‘hard Brexit’ is now less likely but with 80% of voters having voted for parties who remain committed to Brexit just what will the future entail? With such uncertainty hanging over the market and the pound the GBPEUR rate does seem very much poised to languish at these lower levels, a move further down cannot be ruled out.

Today is the UK Bank of England decision which could well see some volatility on exchange rates, the general belief we would see UK interest rates rising has been fading and concerns are now rising about the problems in the UK economy form Brexit, the outcome from all of this for the pound is no longer a question. The reality is that the economic conditions in the UK are not meeting expectation and we could be well in line for further falls in the value of the pound.

If you have a transfer to make in the future the outlook on the exchange rate is not looking great for Euro buyers. Euro sellers are now looking at much improved conditions and the market could easily favour further improvements. If you have a transfer to make selling Euros for pounds then the current market should not be taken too much for granted.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. I can  provide some insight and information regarding your situation and am very confident I can offer a rate which will save you money.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Buying Euro rates see first signs of life since election result (Joshua Privett)

GBP/EUR has risen half a cent at the time of writing this article due to some very positive economic data in the UK cutting through some of the election noise.

Euro buyers seem to have found some support now that Theresa May has had positive meetings yesterday with her own conservative party, quelling rumours of a potential leadership challenge and painting the picture of a Government on the mend.

This was compounded today with positive murmurings coming from talks between Theresa May and the DUP in the first official steps to forming their informal partnership whilst the next government sits to perform its duties.

The manifesto will still need to be debated in Parliament, and, as such, is not out of the woods yet, and May needs to get a consensus on which features of the manifesto should be revised to meet the surge for opposition support.

For now however, the Pound seems set for improvements. Even the economic sphere is giving Sterling a helping hand.

Today inflation data for the UK economy showed thriving spending activity, pushing price rise rates up close to 3% for the year at 2.9%. Given that 60% of the UK economy is made up from domestic consumerism this is important, but there are also indirect benefits.

On Thursday the UK has its next interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. Given that a high interest rate (and this is high, the Bank of England tends to have a target rate of just 2%) is normally a prompt to raise rates and control spending activity, the UK may see policy lean more towards raising rates in the near term.

Such a move will certainly benefit the Pound’s value.

I am well positioned to assist anyone with a buying or selling Euro currency requirement to time their transfer and stay informed in this fluid marketplace. You can contact me directly on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer and your options.

One final point is that I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for a future requirement you have planned using only a small deposit, eliminating any risk from further currency exchange movements.

Buying Euro rates soften as markets digest news of Manchester attack (Joshua Privett)

Pound to Euro exchange rates had undergone a further softening into the lower 1.15’s amid an anxious climate in the UK following the Manchester Arena bombing last night.

Rates had previously been falling in response to underwhelming data emerging from the UK economy concerning the diminishing potential for a UK interest rate rise.

This was further compounded by comments made by Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, yesterday who stated that the Euro was ‘too weak’ and she would like to see it gain value. These are the kind of comments which cause the short-term rally for the Euro.

However, since then, likely due to the likelihood that the situation in Manchester is contained for now, the pressure on the Pound brought out by apprehension forced by the attack abated, and, as such, GBP/EUR exchange rates were getting very close to 1.1 at the time of writing this article.

However, I would not expect this to continue. As the above suggests the underlying trend before the completely horrific attack yesterday was GBP/EUR negative. Without these being addressed it is likely the Pound will continue to remain pressured in the short-term, so Euro buyers should seriously consider their situation and the sensibility in securing an exchange rate sooner rather than later.

As such anyone with a very short-term requirement to buy Euros may be wise to contact me on 01494 787 478 and ask to be put through to Joshua to discuss a live price for your transfer and avoid being ‘last to the party’.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a short conversation could save you a healthy sum on your next transfer.

Anyone with a slightly longer term transfer can also contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer in the run up to the election aimed at maximising your currency return.

Terrorist Attack in Manchester (Daniel Johnson)

22 Dead in terrorist attack

Police have now confirmed that 22 people have lost their lives including children and 59 injured after an explosion at an Ariana Grande concert at the Manchester arena. Our thoughts are with all those affected. Terrorist attacks do effect currency, perhaps due to the common occurrence of such atrocities it does not have the same impact as previously. The attack has however contributed to losses for Sterling with GBP/EUR now in the 1.1540s.

UK Election. How will it effect GBP/EUR?

The move to call a snap general election by Theresa May looked to be a shrewd one. Calling an election when the opposition was so weak was thought to almost guarantee a conservative victory. Usually a snap election would cause the currency in question to weaken in value, but on this occasion the opposite occurred. A conservative victory is deemed as positive for the UK economy, investor confidence grew after the announcement and the pound rallied. Since then however the PM has riled her core voters by stating that if the elderly have more than £100k in cash or assets they will pay for their own care. This has caused Corbyn to gain ground on the Conservatives with Labor now only 6 points behind the Tories. Political uncertainty historically weakens the currency in question. If we look at the last general election we saw volatility very close to the day of the vote. This could create a valuable opportunity for Euro sellers at this election.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is vital to be in touch with an experienced broker in such volatile times. I will be happy to provide a individual trading strategy to suit your needs with no obligation to trade with us. If you would like to get in touch feel free to e-mail me at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading.

 

 

Pound to Euro rate hits one-week low as Bank of England lowers growth forecast (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has dropped to its lowest level in a week yesterday as data from the disappointed.

The Bank of England (BoE) slashed its growth forecast as yesterday’s quarterly inflation report confirmed that inflation levels within the UK will soon outstrip earnings growth. Sterling has dropped below 1.1850 this morning as the softening of the Pound continues although the currency is still towards the top of the current trading range.

Those considering a Sterling transfer should bear in mind that earlier this week analysts at Lloyds bank downgraded their GBP/EUR price target from 1.18 to 1.16 at the end of 2017. This level is below the Pounds current mid-market value, so it seems that some professionals expect the pound to fall as the year goes on.

I also think that if it surfaces that Brexit negotiations have begun badly, we could see a sell-off for the Pound as the setting up of new trade agreements is likely to be the governments priority as the UK enters a time of uncertainty. Now that economic data is playing a more prominent role in the value of the Pound it’s certainly worth paying a close eye on data releases as they’re impacting Sterling rates to a greater extent than last year when politics played a greater role.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound to Euro rates still rising following snap election call (Joshua Privett)

The Pound has surged to a 6 month high against most major currency pairings following a strong show of support for the Pound in response to the snap election call by Theresa May.

Why such a strong showing of support? Many queries I received yesterday were in response to currency market theory. In the past a general rule of thumb around elections is that they tend to weaken the currency in question in the run up to the vote and the results. This is due to heightened uncertainty surrounding the event and the potential implications of the results. Currency investors are normally loathe to make strong bets on potentially surprising outcomes – the ramifications of the Brexit vote being a major example of where this can go wrong for investors.

Instead, this vote is occurring in exceptional times. The Conservatives are effectively looking for a mandate, and to quell calls for a Scottish Referendum, and the polls suggests they have the ability to do this – particularly why the Labour party appears to be in such disarray.

Currency markets are effectively responding well to a more solid British government heading into the Brexit negotiations, as the Eurozone will not see a dark cloud hanging over the British Parliament and use this for negotiation leverage. Furthermore, currency markets have normally favoured pro-business conservative candidates, so a few more years of continuity and unencumbered rule by conservatives should always provide some form of rally…

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on  jjp@currencies.co.uk  in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.

Sterling hits an 8-day high against the Euro as French Presidency fears hit the single currency (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro rate exceeded 1.1750 yesterday afternoon and the pair have held strong above this level so far, as at the time of writing the pair are still trading above this level at the mid-market level.

What’s also interesting to see is that today’s low so far is 1.1756 which indicates to me that there could be support for the pair at this level.

With Sterling gaining slowly since the official start to the Brexit process it appears that the currency has hit its lowest level and it’s now on the recovery, which many within financial markets suggesting that the Brexit has been priced into the Pounds value.

What may help the Pound make additional gains against the Euro later this month is the French Presidential election. There have been fears and hedged bets against the Euro as there’s a chance far-right candidate Marine Le Pen could perform better than many are expecting. This would likely result in Euro weakness due to her plans for a Frexit, but over the past week the increasing popularity of far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon has also weighed on the Euros value due to his views on tax tariffs.

Now that Brexit is underway economic data is playing a more prominent role in the currency fluctuations involving the Pound, so if you’re planning on making a currency exchange involving the pound and another currency do feel free to get in touch regarding these events.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

GBP/EUR breaks 1.17 as services sector remains strong, will the pair hit 1.20? (Joseph Wright)

The UK economy was given a boost yesterday as data showed that its most important sector is performing well.

Economists had anticipated growth in the UK’s services sector but the figure came out higher than they had expected, and the reason Sterling saw a boost of the back of this data release is because the services sector accounts for around 75% of the UK’s economy.

For this reason data releases reflecting the health of this area of the economy can result is swings within GBP exchange rates. Due to the UK entering what could be considered a sensitive time as Brexit is now underway I expect to see these figures followed closely and I think we may see dips within the Pounds value should these figures disappoint.

Another news release which could be watched closely is Gross Domestic Product figures as these will also reflect the health of the UK economy. The next release comes out tomorrow at 1pm and the expectation is for a figure of 0.6% so expect any major deviations from this figure to result in swings within GBP/EUR exchange rates.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding major movements between the Pound and the Euro do feel free to register your details with me.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Pound drops as UK government plans to trigger Article 50 this afternoon (Joseph Wright)

Late last night Prime Minister Theresa May signed the letter triggering Article 50, and this letter will be delivered to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk later this afternoon at 12.30pm.

This will officially start the Brexit process in which the UK has 2 years to leave the European Union, and in this time the UK will be doing its best to set up trade negotiations both in Europe and outside of it.

In the early hours of this morning the Pound dropped, which is a change to the currency’s general direction over the past week or so as we’ve seen the currency gain. Yesterday the pair hit 1.16 which was GBP/EUR’s highest level since the beginning of the month, and since this mornings drop the Pound has recovered some ground as it appears the currency is struggling for direction.

I think there could be some further swings during today’s trading session, especially this afternoon once Article 50 has been triggered and May offers a speech. Should she give anything away regarding the UK’s plans moving forward I think there could be movement in either direction for the Pound’s value.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding major news and movements within GBP exchange rates do feel free to get in touch.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

What will happen to GBPEUR after Article 50 is triggered?

Once Article 50 is triggered I expect the pound to enter a new phase against the Euro although at the moment I cannot see it breaking it out of the recent ranges of 1.13-1.18 we have been trapped in. The pound and the Euro have both found support in recent weeks as solid economic data and improved political certainty aid both currencies. The US dollar has also weakened lately, the main beneficiaries being the pound and the Euro. Both GBPUSD and EURUSD have both risen 3-4 cent in the last couple of weeks ever since the US failed to increase their interest rate hike expectations.

There is a distinct lack of volatility in the market on GBPEUR at present with only 60 pips (0.6 of 1 cent) movement between the high and the low yesterday. Eager Euro buyers may well see some improvements once Article 50 is triggered but I cannot see it lasting long as there are some big questions on the horizon which I foresee as likely to contribute to a decline in the value of the pound. I cannot see how the UK can come out of these negotiations with a better deal than it has already with the EU.

Clients reading GBPEUR for spikes to buy Euros could find some relief around the time of the French elections although Marine Le Pen is not expected to win so any spikes could prove short-lived. I also feel it would be a risky strategy holding on since who knows how weak the pound will be at that time?

The UK’s relationship with the EU has been the downfall of many a Prime Minister and a politician, David Cameron the most recent example. Can Theresa May navigate this rocky road with her reputation and the Conservative party intact? History tells us that the odds are stacked against any success here.

If you have any requirements to buy or sell pounds and Euros in the coming weeks and months then tomorrow’s news and the political fallout on both sides of the Channel will be key to determining the direction on GBPEUR in the future. If you would like some proactive assistance with the timings of any transfer then please feel free to get in touch as I would be interested in speaking to you and offering some information on when may be the best time to buy your currency.

Please email jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

Jonathan Watson