Tag Archives: GBP/EUR forecast
Very important week for GBPEUR exchanges! Both Draghi and Carney to speak!
Clients looking to buy Euros with pounds have been treading on pretty precarious ground as the market continues to fret about the political make up of the UK in the coming months and years. Theresa May’s deal with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) did little to spark interest in the pound and with the all important commons vote on the Queen’s speech this week sterling should remain at the whim of political developments. I expect the pound could move in either direction with the Euro as much as 2 cents in the coming week depending on a series of important data and events that are taking place.
If you need to move any currency around then making plans in advance is sensible to avoid being caught out like many have in recent weeks as markets take an unexpected turn! We offer a proactive service to help monitor and track exchange rates with a view helping secure the very best levels. If you have a transfer to make and wish for us some assistance please do contact me to find out more.
There is a light belief the Bank of England are making plans to raise interest rates however with the Governor Mark Carney against the idea we could have quite a battle on for that to become reality. We will really need to see some big shifts in the economic data but should we start to see the economic data improving the case for a rate hike will increase. For the Euro the week is fairly light on data but we do have Mario Draghi speaking who with his comments could easily move the Euro rates.
A higher interest rate makes a currency stronger as it attracts investment into that currency. The mere mention of a hike or speculation of one can do lots to a currency and the back and forth nature of commentary over raising UK interest rates lately has seen sterling to Euro rates see-sawing with the sentiment. Both Carney and Draghi’s comments have the potential to move exchange rates and clients looking to buy or sell large volumes of pounds and euros for say an overseas property purchase or business should be prepared.
This week is another potential choppy one with a host of speakers who will be commenting on the potential for interest rates with Mark Carney due to speak today and tomorrow. Markets will be eagerly awaiting any news on how the Governor is viewing events with his Financial Stability report due today. If you have a transfer buying or selling pounds for Euros I would not be surprised to see movements of 1 – 2 cents as we learn principally of developments in UK politics and economics.
If you have a transaction to consider and wish to get any information on the market or trends then please do speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk to get the latest insight and assistance with the timing and planning of your exchanges.
Pound to Euro exchange rates set for marginal fall and strong rise next week (Joshua Privett)
When entering the latter part of the month, economics takes a back seat, and as such the rollercoaster of politics will be at the forefront in governing Pound to Euro rates this week.
We begin with the French local elections, the final part of the French election cycle. This will decide whether the new President, Emmanuel Macron, has the majority he needs to govern effectively.
He is proposing a sweeping change to French labour laws and a host of new pro-business policies. This is why his initial election victory saw the Euro gain almost two cents against Sterling. Should a Parliamentary majority form, then it’s likely we will see further Euro strength given his ability to govern effectively will be cemented. Well, as much as French unions will permit.
In any case, polling is today and the result itself should see further Euro strength when markets re-open tomorrow.
However, the UK is also trying to consolidate political stability. There was a delayed announcement for the Conservative-DUP partnership last week, but the initial hints were enough to see the Pound flirst upwards agains the Euro. Confirmation should realise those hinted gains for Euro buyers.
Then their plans for a Government manifesto will have to be voted on in Parliament given that the Conservatives do not have the majority they need to rule as a single party. Furthermore markets are waiting to hear further news on whether a softer Brexit approach will be taken.
Euro sellers may be wise to seize any opportunities created by the French election result tomorrow. Conversely anyone with a GBP/EUR requirement should be monitoring political developments next week in order to give yourself the best opportunity to puchase at any peaks which emerge rather than a trough.
I strongly recommend that anyone with a Euro buying or selling requirement should contact me on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer. I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.
Sterling rises after Bank of England hints at a rate hike (Joseph Wright)
The Pound appears to have consolidated above 1.14 against the Euro, making the buying Euro rate cheaper for those holding Sterling.
There are current 8 voting members of the BoE and yesterday almost half of them voted in favour of hiking rates, which caused the Pound to jump by over half a cent as soon as the news broke around lunchtime.
The reason behind the Bank of England’s voting members that would like to see a hike is most likely the rising rate of inflation in the UK, which is eating into consumers spending power as wage growth is beginning to stall within the UK.
Raising the interest rate would act to lessen the blow and it’s also a positive for the Pound so I do think we can expect to see the Pound climb if rates are going to rise for the first time in a decade.
Later this morning the Bank of England’s Quarterly Bulletin will be released which could send the markets either way depending on what’s said. If you would like to be kept updated with data releases that can impact your upcoming currency exchange plans do feel free to get in touch.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
Will the pound to Euro rate continue to rise?
The pound to Euro rate will continue its volatility in the coming weeks as we get closer to understanding just what type of Government the UK will have in the future. Overall expectations for the future remain unclear as we try to understand what Brexit means and what type of government the UK will have in the future. It appears a ‘hard Brexit’ is now less likely but with 80% of voters having voted for parties who remain committed to Brexit just what will the future entail? With such uncertainty hanging over the market and the pound the GBPEUR rate does seem very much poised to languish at these lower levels, a move further down cannot be ruled out.
Today is the UK Bank of England decision which could well see some volatility on exchange rates, the general belief we would see UK interest rates rising has been fading and concerns are now rising about the problems in the UK economy form Brexit, the outcome from all of this for the pound is no longer a question. The reality is that the economic conditions in the UK are not meeting expectation and we could be well in line for further falls in the value of the pound.
If you have a transfer to make in the future the outlook on the exchange rate is not looking great for Euro buyers. Euro sellers are now looking at much improved conditions and the market could easily favour further improvements. If you have a transfer to make selling Euros for pounds then the current market should not be taken too much for granted.
For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. I can provide some insight and information regarding your situation and am very confident I can offer a rate which will save you money.
Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.
Buying Euro rates see first signs of life since election result (Joshua Privett)
GBP/EUR has risen half a cent at the time of writing this article due to some very positive economic data in the UK cutting through some of the election noise.
Euro buyers seem to have found some support now that Theresa May has had positive meetings yesterday with her own conservative party, quelling rumours of a potential leadership challenge and painting the picture of a Government on the mend.
This was compounded today with positive murmurings coming from talks between Theresa May and the DUP in the first official steps to forming their informal partnership whilst the next government sits to perform its duties.
The manifesto will still need to be debated in Parliament, and, as such, is not out of the woods yet, and May needs to get a consensus on which features of the manifesto should be revised to meet the surge for opposition support.
For now however, the Pound seems set for improvements. Even the economic sphere is giving Sterling a helping hand.
Today inflation data for the UK economy showed thriving spending activity, pushing price rise rates up close to 3% for the year at 2.9%. Given that 60% of the UK economy is made up from domestic consumerism this is important, but there are also indirect benefits.
On Thursday the UK has its next interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. Given that a high interest rate (and this is high, the Bank of England tends to have a target rate of just 2%) is normally a prompt to raise rates and control spending activity, the UK may see policy lean more towards raising rates in the near term.
Such a move will certainly benefit the Pound’s value.
I am well positioned to assist anyone with a buying or selling Euro currency requirement to time their transfer and stay informed in this fluid marketplace. You can contact me directly on jjp@currencies.co.uk to discuss a strategy for your transfer and your options.
One final point is that I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, and these current buying levels can be fixed in place for a future requirement you have planned using only a small deposit, eliminating any risk from further currency exchange movements.
GBP/EUR breaks 1.17 as services sector remains strong, will the pair hit 1.20? (Joseph Wright)
The UK economy was given a boost yesterday as data showed that its most important sector is performing well.
Economists had anticipated growth in the UK’s services sector but the figure came out higher than they had expected, and the reason Sterling saw a boost of the back of this data release is because the services sector accounts for around 75% of the UK’s economy.
For this reason data releases reflecting the health of this area of the economy can result is swings within GBP exchange rates. Due to the UK entering what could be considered a sensitive time as Brexit is now underway I expect to see these figures followed closely and I think we may see dips within the Pounds value should these figures disappoint.
Another news release which could be watched closely is Gross Domestic Product figures as these will also reflect the health of the UK economy. The next release comes out tomorrow at 1pm and the expectation is for a figure of 0.6% so expect any major deviations from this figure to result in swings within GBP/EUR exchange rates.
If you would like to be kept updated regarding major movements between the Pound and the Euro do feel free to register your details with me.
If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.
Pound drops as UK government plans to trigger Article 50 this afternoon (Joseph Wright)
Late last night Prime Minister Theresa May signed the letter triggering Article 50, and this letter will be delivered to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk later this afternoon at 12.30pm.
This will officially start the Brexit process in which the UK has 2 years to leave the European Union, and in this time the UK will be doing its best to set up trade negotiations both in Europe and outside of it.
In the early hours of this morning the Pound dropped, which is a change to the currency’s general direction over the past week or so as we’ve seen the currency gain. Yesterday the pair hit 1.16 which was GBP/EUR’s highest level since the beginning of the month, and since this mornings drop the Pound has recovered some ground as it appears the currency is struggling for direction.
I think there could be some further swings during today’s trading session, especially this afternoon once Article 50 has been triggered and May offers a speech. Should she give anything away regarding the UK’s plans moving forward I think there could be movement in either direction for the Pound’s value.
If you would like to be kept updated regarding major news and movements within GBP exchange rates do feel free to get in touch.
If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.
Pound to Euro exchange rates show signs of life (Joshua Privett)
Pound to Euro exchange rates have enjoyed a positive end to the week after two weeks where Friday has forced a woeful atmosphere on many Euro buyers as they enter the weekend.
For once this currency movement had little to do with the twists and turns of the political sagas of both the UK and the Eurozone. Instead one of the side-effects of the Pound’s low value, rising prices due to the high number of items the UK exports, after many months, may finally yield to a long-awaited interest rate rise in the UK.
Interest rate rises are one of the tools used by the Bank of England to control pricing in the UK. By encouraging people to save, this should stem rising prices to some degree, given that the incentive to save rather than spend is higher – so prices aren’t driven up by higher demand.
Carney said that whilst rates won’t rise right now, there is a near certainty that they will in the future. As such the Pound has bumped upwards with speculators excited for greater opportunity on their potential returns from holding Sterling.
A rate rise would put the UK’s benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, compared to the Eurozone’s which is at a paltry 0.05% – this is why Euro buyers were the main beneficiaries off the back of the news compared to other currencies.
So what next?
Frankly, there is little else to focus on this month apart from the triggering of Article 50, but markets are worried about the setting in which it is enacted. Will the Scottish Parliament formally request another Referendum as a result? This is the key question which has dogged Sterling in the Past week.
As such with forecasts heavily dependant on an evolving landscape, it is key to have contact with a broker established ahead of time to avoid missing out in these situations – whether opportunities or sudden-drops.
If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.
I have never had an issue beating the rates of exchange on offer elsewhere, so a brief conversation could save you thousands on a prospective transfer.
Pound to Euro exchange rates beginning to weaken as we journey into the weekend (Joshua Privett)
Whilst the above states the Pound is weakening, I would urge that this is a marginal movement, something which we have become accustomed to in recent weeks.
The negative trend is -0.18% as I type this, but movements on Friday’s have been prone to be detrimental to Euro buyers in the past. This is because investors seek to even out the risk in their portfolio as they head into the weekend, as a result, some of the less stable currencies tend to lose out in these situations.
Whilst markets are closed over the weekend, markets do still move in the period between 6 (when most traders leave their desks) and late evening, when North American markets are still open an trading. No-one wants to be caught out in the open as it were with the exchange rates, and, as such, stable currencies are bought up in droves. Early indications this morning, with the Dollar rising and the Pound falling, suggests this weekend may be no different.
The Pound tends to suffer the most as well, particularly given that large amounts of news are released over the weekend on the political spectrum, with commentaries from leading politicians in the UK and across the Channel over the Brexit topic governing exchange rates heavily. Euro buyers may be wise to seize current levels as they are now.
If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jjp@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.
You can also call in and ask reception to speak with Joshua on 01494 787 478.
