Tag Archives: GBP/EUR forecast
Pound to Euro rate drops below 1.14, will the pressure on May push the rate even lower?
The Pound is coming under pressure as the Brexit bill, and what will happen if there is no Brexit deal is currently weighing the Pound’s value down.
Sterling exchange rates have fallen across the board of major currency pairs today, with the GBP/EUR rate down by around 0.2% at the time of writing. The debate at the House of Commons will commence once again tomorrow and I think that any updates could impact the Pounds value depending on what’s said.
The political risks for UK Prime Minister, Theresa May are increasing and there have even been talks of a split in her camp with some wishing for her downfall in order to push through the type of Brexit they desire.
Whilst this continues I expect to see Sterling come under pressure. Anyone with a GBP/EUR transfer to plan should be aware that over the past year the rate has been as high as 1.15 and as low as 1.07.
With much of the Pound’s movement being instigated by political news, it can be hard to tell when the rate is likely to move. Working on a dealing floor allows us to react quickly and if you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement, do feel free to register your interest with me.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
GBPEUR rates rise! Will we break 1.15?
The pound to Euro exchange rate has risen to 1.1462 at its highest this afternoon as a fresh move lower on EURUSD exchange rates drags the Euro lower against all the majors. The pair was given a nice boost this morning as UK Retail Sales took us from 1.1320 at the opening lows, higher to hit 1.137 as recent concerns over UK economic data cooled.
This afternoon was the big mover with Mario Draghi and the ECB (European Central Bank) providing the final lift and seeing GBPEUR quickly rise over 1.14, it never looked like getting back under this level once breached. The main trigger for this move was news the ECB would seek to its stimulus program in December and an extension of the timing of when the ECB might be looking to raise interest rates.
The general impression will be of a weaker Euro as there are many risks to growth and also politics in the Eurozone, this namely stems from the political situation in Italy which might well further undermine the confidence in the region. Investors are concerned about the longer term outlook and are questioning the likelihood of the ECB actually being able to fulfil these high expectations.
The pound to Euro rate might well drive further, rising above 1.15 is now a very real prospect but clients looking to buy Euros at a higher price would probably be best to make some careful plans since rates can change very quickly!
For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk.
Sterling weakens as low inflation levels disappoint the markets, where to next for the pair?
Sterling has fallen in value today after some disappointing data released this morning.
According to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) the consumer price index has hit a 1-year low last month. Although this was expected the figure is the lowest since March of 2017, and it showed 2.4%.
This lessens the possibility of a rate hike from the Bank of England later in the year, which is why the Pound has dropped in value. It’s worth noting that many within the financial markets had expected to see the base rate hiked last month and the chances of this happening this year have now slimmed, which is why GBP/EUR is a couple of cents lower now than it was just a few months back when hopes were high.
The Brexit negotiations and internal disputes are being discussed in parliament as we speak as UK Prime Minister, Theresa May hopes to bring about an agreement between her party.
Tomorrow there could be movement for GBP/EUR exchange rates as there is a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting with high hopes of a key update from ECB president, Mario Draghi.
If the ECB plans on cutting back on its Asset Purchasing Plan I expect to see the Euro strengthen.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
Pound to Euro rate hits a 1-month high as Euro weakens due to Italian concerns
The Euro fell another half a percent against the Pound yesterday, after news broke over the weekend that the expected Italian coalition government is no longer looking likely to form.
There were expectations that the five star movement and League would form the coalition over the weekend, but the Italian President Sergio Mattarella cancelled talks after the coalition put forward Eurosceptic, Paolo Savona for finance minister. The markets were already weary of the unfolding’s in Italy due to the populist and Eurosceptic leanings, along with plans to cut back on debt whilst increasing government spending.
The Euro weakness is across the board of major currency pairs as opposed to just between the Pound and Euro, and this is something those hoping for a stronger Euro should be aware of.
Italian consumer confidence levels have also dropped off recently which hasn’t helped the Euros value either, and the cost of borrowing has also surged in recent weeks.
GBP/EUR is now trading roughly within a cent from its highest levels of the last year. The potential downsides for the Pound mostly surround whether a Brexit deal will be agreed in time to keep with the Brexit schedule, and also whether or not the economy justifies an interest rate hike later in the year as many are expecting.
The Pound has predominantly been driven by politics relating to Brexit for some time now, and those hoping for a stronger Pound should be aware of this.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Finds Some Support After Last Week’s Heavy Losses (Matthew Vassallo)
The Pound has found a level of support against the Euro this week, following a poor run over the past couple of weeks.
GBP/EUR rates are now trading back above 1.14, which will be welcomed by any clients looking to execute a GBP/EUR currency exchange over the coming days.
It’s been well documented that the Pound has been under pressure of late. Investors quickly sold off their GBP currency position, when it became clear that the Bank of England (BoE) would not be raising interest rates at their recent policy meeting.
I do believe that the BoE and Mark Carney in particular have lost a lot of credibility and this could have an impact on Sterling’s value moving forward, which in turn could help support any increase in value for the EUR.
Looking at the GBP/EUR pair and the trend over the past 12 months has been repetitive, with the Pound seemingly finding a level of support only to be knocked back time and again.
It is unlikely that a move back towards the highs of last year, when the Pound was trading in the higher teens and one stage even seemed as if it could put pressure back on the dizzy heights of 1.20.
Fast forward and it those levels seem ambitious at best, especially when you consider that UK growth forecasts for 2018 have been cut once again to 1.4%.
Despite the current malaise, the Eurozone is not without its own problems. Political fragmentation across the region, Italy being the prime example, could potentially destabilise the Eurozone economy.
We have already seen a downturn from last year and for this reason, it still seems as though the downside risk, outweighs the upside benefits for those clients holding EUR.
If you have an upcoming Sterling currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.
Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.
Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.
Has GBP/EUR already hit its 2018 high, and what factors could drive its value as the year progresses?
The Pound to Euro exchange rate is currently trading around the 1.14 mark, after seeing a slight boost yesterday off the back of some positive data.
After beginning yesterday’s trading session closer to the 1.13 mark the Pound was boosted when the Office of National Statistics (ONS) announced that UK unemployment sits at the record low of 4.2%, and that wage growth in the UK has outpaced the rate of inflation for the first time in a year.
Despite this positive data the Pound to Euro rate is still a couple of cents from its highest levels this year when the pair almost hit 1.16. The positive sentiment surrounding the Pound has since dropped off after the Bank of England voted against a rate hike at last weeks monetary policy meeting.
In order for GBP/EUR to hit a new 2018 high I think there will need to be a breakthrough regarding the final Brexit deal, as such positive news would likely push the Pound higher. I also think that if talk of a rate hike returns later in the year we could see a stronger Pound, especially if the European Central Bank (ECB) continue to hold off of raising interest rates this year.
For those following the pair, its worth noting that Morgan Stanley are predicting short term weakness in the Pounds value, before a longer term recovery as they believe the Pound is oversold and that this will continue in the short term future.
There is a lack of data out of the UK for the rest of the week, but this mornings inflation data from the Eurozone may influence exchange rates.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
Pound to Euro rate hits May high this morning, will Euro weakness continue to push the rate higher?
The Pound to Euro exchange rate has hit a month high this morning, after breaking through 1.14 quite comfortably earlier today for the first time in May.
At the time of writing the pair are trading at 1.1425, offering those exchanging Pounds into Euros the chance to make their trade at the best levels in a few weeks. The move this morning looks like its off the back Euro weakness, with the EUR/USD rate hitting a fresh 2018 low over the past day.
The Euro is the worst performing major currency of the past week, and talk of stubborn inflationary levels stopping the ECB from amending the current monetary policy are beginning to dampen sentiments surrounding the Euro also. The European Central Bank has confirmed that there will be no interest rate hikes this year which is also dampened sentiment towards the Euro, so I can understand why the single currency is dropping especially when we consider how strong it’s been over the last year.
There are a few downsides for the Pound that I think Sterling sellers should be aware of. With Brexit talks stalling in the House of Lords and the Northern Irish border also becoming a hot topic, I think there is a chance the Pound could see a sell-off should there be a negative Brexit related update, and the UK economy has also been showing signs of a slowdown to Sterling sellers should be weary.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
Is the trend of a strong April for the Pound about to end?
The seasonal trend of the Pound gaining throughout the month of April looks set to end this month, which is coincidentally the 13th month unlikely when the Pound is compared with the US Dollar.
The Pound tends to perform well against most major currency pairs including the Euro during April, with the trend being attributed to the new tax year and a lot of dividend payments being made around this time in GBP denominated equities.
It looks like 13th time unlikely as the Pound is trading below its starting point versus the US Dollar and the Euro when the month begun. Sterling has been coming under pressure recently after some poor Retail Sales figures and lower inflation and wage growth figures. The drop in the Pounds value and sentiment surrounding it have led the Bank of America Merrill Lynch to drop their bet on the Pound gaining in value during the month of April.
I also think that Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney failing to confirm the expected interest rate hike from the BoE next month has also impacted the Pound negatively, and the issues surrounding whether or not the UK will leave the EU Customs Union is also weighing on the Pounds value.
If you would like to discuss any upcoming transfers you’re planning, I think next months BoE meeting on the 10th of May is key, and feel free to get in touch to plan around this event and ask for my opinion.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
Pound weakens after hopes of a rate hike in May are dampened, where to next for the GBP/EUR rate? (Joseph Wright)
Financial markets had been pricing in an interest rate hike from the Bank of England since some bullish comments from the Bank of England last month.
The hopes of a rate hike have since dampened after some important comments from the governor of the Bank of England. Yesterday evening whilst speaking to the BBC, Mark Carney cooled expectations of a rate hike next month after not confirming that it would actually happen. There have been a few members of the BoE that have already voted in favour of hiking interest rates, and with the rate of wage growth in the UK now picking up and similar to inflation levels, many were expecting the base rate in the UK to rise to its highest level since the UK exited the recession.
Carney commented that he didn’t want to become too focused on the precise timing of the next rate hike, and although he didn’t rule out the hike he didn’t confirm it which has caused the Pound to weaken in value.
Sterling had been strengthening recently after the Brexit transitional deal has been agreed and hopes of the rate hike next month, so seeing the GBP/EUR rate drop from its highs isn’t a surprise.
There is still a rate hike likely this year although when it will happen remains to be seen. Next week UK GDP is due out on Friday, so if you’re planning on making a transfer involving the Pound and the Euro do feel free to get in touch as there is plenty of time to plan around next Friday’s release.
If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.
GBP/EUR Forecast – Sterling Recovery Softens (Matthew Vassallo)
UK manufacturing data came in slightly better than expected yesterday but GBP/EUR rates have remained fairly flat this week.
The Pound reached a high of 1.1473 today before retracting slightly but has struggled to make any impact above 1.15 against its EUR counterpart.
The catalyst for Sterling’s recent improvement was confirmation that UK & EU have all but agreed on the terms for a Brexit transitional deal. This positive spike has softened over the past week, with the long-term uncertainty around the UK economy still handicapping any major sustainable advances for Sterling.
Whilst the recent news has helped to alleviate many of the concerns that the UK was going to be left in a state of economic limbo following our separation, investors remain wary about the UK’s position post Brexit. A strong Eurozone economy is also helping to support the single currency and as such the EUR has found plenty of support around the current levels.
Despite a positive run of UK economic data the Pound cannot seem to break free from its shackles and with trade talks underway between the UK & EU, could we see further pressure on the Pound over the coming weeks?
With the Bank of England (BoE) giving indications that they may raise interest rates over the coming months, there is certainly a reason for those clients holding Sterling positions to feel more optimistic than in recent times.
However, with many unanswered questions and only fragile confidence in the UK economy, it may be prudent to protect any short-term GBP/EUR currency positions. This is not the first time the pound has threatened to make significant inroads against the other major currencies. Despite the fact there may be more substance to the recent increase in value, there are still many unanswered question, in terms of how the UK economy will be shaped and perform when it goes it alone.
If you have an upcoming GBP or EUR currency transfer to make, you can contact me directly on 01494 787 478. We can help guide you through this turbulent market and as a company we have over eighteen years’ experience, in helping our clients achieve the very best exchange rates on any given market.
Our award winning rates can be accessed very easily over the phone and I can keep you posted with key market developments ahead of any prospective exchange you need to make.
Feel free to email me directly on mtv@currencies.co.uk to find out all the options available to you ahead of your currency transfer.
EU summit to have major influence on GBPEUR exchange rates
Yesterday GBPEUR exchange rates spiked close to 1.13 off the back of the Spring budget update. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, as expected, announced that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) have increased growth forecasts for the next 12 months up to 1.5%. Interestingly the OBR actually only cut the growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.4% at the Autumn budget, which shows the UK economy has performed well over the last 6 months.
For people that are converting pounds into euros or euros into pounds, over the last 3 months exchange rates have been range bound by roughly 3 cents. On a daily basis we are receiving positive and negative news from the UK and EU. For example, Brexit updates are varied, European growth is fantastic however there is a concern due to the Italian election result, so it just shows why GBPEUR exchange rates are up and down like a yoyo.
As a currency trader, it is my responsibility to keep my clients informed about market movement. For most people that are converting GBPEUR, they will be working throughout the day and do not have the time to watch exchange rates and that’s where I come in. If you want help in regards to timings and also to receive fantastic exchange rates feel free to email me directly drl@currencies.co.uk.
Looking ahead the EU summit next week has the potential to have a major influence on GBPEUR exchange rate. The UK had planned to have had the transitional deal sorted before the summit therefore we should expect a few announcements surrounding the transition over the next 7 days. Furthermore, exchange rates will fluctuate next week and it all depends on what is actually said. I’m optimistic that the EU will allow the UK to start discussing trade early next month and therefore I wouldn’t be surprised to see GBPEUR reach the higher end of the 3 cent range we have been experiencing over the last 3 months.
Will the Spring statement cause market volatility? (Daniel Johnson)
Will there be any surprises from Hammond?
Philip Hammond, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer is due to deliver the spring statement today. It is expected to be a no frills affair with no big surprises that could rock the markets. I tend to agree with this and I do not expected any breaking changes.
It will commence around 12.30pm and is due to last around 20 minutes. Hammond has stated that no other major economy has two major fiscal set-piece events a year and “neither should we”.
He also added “If unexpected changes in the economy require it, then I will, of course, announce actions at the Spring Statement. But I won’t make significant changes twice a year just for the sake of it.”
I doubt this will have a significant impact on Sterling.
Single Market access for UK financial sector could be a point of contention
The key market mover will still be Brexit talks. The uncertainty surrounding single market access for the UK financial sector is probably one of the most significant point of the whole negotiation process. French Politician, Bruno Le Maire has stated that the UK will be forced to utilise a political mechanism know as equivalence. Equivalence gives countries outside the EU access to the single market for limited periods, when and whether they will have access is dictated by Brussels. Access can be revoked at any time.
May’s proposal for a mutual recognition situation with free single market access has been flatly denied. This does not bode well for the Pound.
If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. It is crucial to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximise your return. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavour to produce a free, no obligation trading strategy for you. If you have a trade to perform I will also happily provide a free quote and I am confident our rates are among the best in the industry. I would be willing to demonstrate this in form of a comparison with any competitor.
You can trade in safety knowing you are dealing with company FCA registered and one that has been trading for 16yrs. Foreign Currency Direct PLC.
If you would like my assistance I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading. Daniel Johnson
The French cause unrest in Brexit Talks (Daniel Johnson)
Concerns over UK Financial Sector could weigh on Sterling
The French are making things difficult for the UK in Brexit talks. French Economy Minister, Bruno Le Maire has stated there is very little chance of Britain securing a free trade deal for the financial services that would provide the level of access the UK seeks. Le Maire said the UK would have to use a legal mechanism known as equivalence. Equivalence allows countries outside the EU limited access to the single market, controlled by Brussels, access can be revoked at any time which would certainly not sit well with large financial firms. Indeed Goldman Sachs has already started moving UK employees to Frankfurt due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.
May’s call for a mutual recognition system which would still give UK financial services access to the single market has already been rejected. Single Market access for financial services is one of the most important points of negotiation in the Brexit process and this could be a major stumbling block. The financial services sector is the UK’s biggest form of tax income.
France’s thinly veiled ploy to turn Paris into the new focal point of financial services is causing real trouble for the UK economy and the Pound as a result.
During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs. If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving.
I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.
Investors hang on Theresa May’s speech at 13.30 (Daniel Johnson)
May’s speech expected to cause volatility
GBP/EUR rates will be mainly dictated by the progress in Brexit negotiations. The Irish border situation has again come into the spot light. UK PM, Theresa May has turned down proposals from Brussels that could potentially annex Northern Ireland by keeping them in the single market.
The PM is due to speak later today and investors wait with baited breath to see if May gives some form of clarity on the Brexit situation. She is widely expected to rule out Britain being part of the customs union with the EU.
There has been recent talks at Chequers with members of her cabinet and it appears there is now some unity between the remainers and the leavers in the cabinet. This is neded considering many have been at loggerheads for some time. I feel many MPs have put their own personal agenda in front of focusing on getting a Brexit deal in place. I would expect May to state there is now a framework in place for negotiations and that she has the backing of her cabinet.
I think May will try and avoid any mention of a hard line stance which has the potential to hurt the Pound. Sterling does have the potential to strengthen, but nothing substantial. It is a question of whether investors believe her comments and credibility.
GBP/EUR has been sat between 1.12 – 1.15 for some time. 1.15 being a resistance point with the GBP/EUR quickly retracting when 1.15 is hit. If you have to move short term buying Euros aim to move around 1.1430 as having too high expectations could prove costly.
If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.
If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.
If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.
Thank you for reading.
