Tag Archives: Sterling exchange rates

Pound to Euro rate drops below 1.14, will the pressure on May push the rate even lower?

The Pound is coming under pressure as the Brexit bill, and what will happen if there is no Brexit deal is currently weighing the Pound’s value down.

Sterling exchange rates have fallen across the board of major currency pairs today, with the GBP/EUR rate down by around 0.2% at the time of writing. The debate at the House of Commons will commence once again tomorrow and I think that any updates could impact the Pounds value depending on what’s said.

The political risks for UK Prime Minister, Theresa May are increasing and there have even been talks of a split in her camp with some wishing for her downfall in order to push through the type of Brexit they desire.

Whilst this continues I expect to see Sterling come under pressure. Anyone with a GBP/EUR transfer to plan should be aware that over the past year the rate has been as high as 1.15 and as low as 1.07.

With much of the Pound’s movement being instigated by political news, it can be hard to tell when the rate is likely to move. Working on a dealing floor allows us to react quickly and if you wish to be updated in the event of a major market movement, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Sterling Exchange Rates before UK Retail Sales Data (James Lovick)

The pound remains under pressure despite the British government winning a series of votes in the House of Commons this week after a series of amendments had been put forward in the House of Lords. Things could be become interesting for the pound next week though as the Prime Minister had to make a last minute concession to some of her rebel conservatives who seek to keep Britain with as close ties as possible to the European Union. It would appear that what was offered on Tuesday is not quite what the government is prepared to offer and concerns the issue of having a meaningful vote which would prevent the government from walking away from the negotiations without a deal.

The European Central Bank (ECB) meet later today for the next interest rate decision. Although no change is expected the important detail will be in the Quantitative Easing schedule. Clients looking to sell Euros will be interested to hear when the ECB is likely to conclude its vast Quantitative Easing scheme. ECB President Mario Draghi will be providing the markets with a running commentary this afternoon and may offer some clues as to the central bank’s thinking

UK retail sales numbers are released this morning and are likely to see a reaction. The UK economy has struggled to get back up to speed following that cold weather front dubbed the Beast from the East although a pick up this morning is probably overdue. A big number could see the pound rally and would restore some confidence in the British growth outlook.

The Bank of England meet next week for the next interest rate decision although no change is expected this time round. There is more likely to be a focus on when the next rate hike will take place which is earmarked for either August or November.

For more information on the pound or Euro exchange rates and for assistance in making any transfers then please feel free to contact me at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP EUR Rates – Brexit and Italian Political Uncertainty (James Lovick)

The pound has moved higher against the Euro creating a good opportunity for those clients looking to buy Euros. Rates for GBP EUR almost broke through the 1.15 target for many before slipping back to 1.1450. There is currently a huge amount of volatility for the Euro on the back of the political uncertainty in Italy following the recent election.

There is now the prospect of frees elections in Italy after the Italian President failed to appoint Paolo Savona as finance minister who was backed by both leaders of the League and Five Star parties. Mr Savona is well known for being Eurosceptic and the blocking of his appointment is likely to result in further Euroscepticism.

When it comes to a vote in Parliament both leaders have stated they will reject the President’s decision to try and appoint his own choice of finance minister who used to be an official in the IMF. They are also seeking to impeach the president for his choice of actions. Clients looking to buy Euros are likely to see a very volatile period in these coming days and weeks with the global media focussing on developments. Planned marches and protests are expected on the 2nd June which could demonstrate the extent of bad feeling in Italy about this.

Clients looking to buy Euros with pounds are also likely to see a volatile period for sterling exchange rates. There is an expected vote in the House of Commons in these coming weeks which could make history and create a new direction in the Brexit negotiations and hence the pound. If the government is defeated in the House of Commons over a series of amendments proposed by the House of Lords then this could slow the Brexit process down or change its course which would likely see high volatility in the pound.

A fresh general election which would be likely in this scenario in my view would see sterling fall sharply.  If however Theresa May is able to win these votes then the government would look much stronger and this could help see the pound rally. This really could be a hugely volatile period ahead and clients either buying or selling Euros should plan ahead of this major event.

For more information on sterling and Euro exchange rates and how to make the most of any opportunities then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Mixed signals see GBPEUR remain range bound!

GBPEUR has been stuck in a tight range trading in a band of 3 cents in the last month. Over the last 3 months the range is 4 cents so there really has not been anything too dramatic occurring on the rate, compared to some of the more volatile sudden moves since the Brexit vote. Whilst we have begun to hit some fresh highs when it reached 1.16, I expect we will now remain in this more familiar ranges for much of June.

Despite the market being presented with Euro weakness lately over the Italian political uncertainty, the pound also performed badly as falling Inflation data removed the urgency for the Bank of England to be looking at any interest rate rise. We are seeing mixed signals and the market has not really been able to establish any fresh news to warrant any specific and significant jump outside of the ranges.

The possibility of the UK hiking rates was one such factor but this now appears highly unlikely in 2018. Sterling is better supported because of this longer-term potential and the progress being made on Brexit. However, with there being so much more to still finalise on Brexit, the pound is likely to remain on the weaker side.

Important news this morning is UK Retail Sales and then tomorrow’s GDP data as well. Overall, there appear to be more reasons to be hopeful of a longer-term rise in the value of the pound as we get final clarification on Brexit and European political fears increase. We might need to wait until the Autumn of end of 2018 for this to really manifest on exchange rates however.

June sees plenty to potentially move the market with the EU Summit and interest rate decisions from both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. Despite this, I still feel we will remain within these 1.13-1.15 ranges which have now become so familiar.

Thank you for reading and please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

GBPEUR remains range bound in the 1.13s

This morning the UK released their latest average earnings numbers and Europe released their latest GDP numbers and both economic data releases met the expectation. Due to there being no surprises GBPEUR exchange rates have remains fairly flat throughout the day. If anything the pound has made some minor gains against the euro and you could argue the fall in European production is the reasoning for this.

GBPEUR exchange rates have been gradually falling over the last 2 weeks since Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney announced that the UK were unlikely to raise interest rates. With the central bank failing to hike last Thursday this story could have a major influence on the future of GBPEUR going forward.

UK economic data releases need to be watched closely if you are converting GBPEUR short term. Economic data for April was terrible, if we see a rebound now that the weather has changed the likelihood of a hike increases and therefore the pound should follow suit. However Brexit negotiations will also be a key driver for exchange rates.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has warned Brexiteers today that she is not prepared for a no deal which would in turn create a hard border in Ireland. My opinion has not changed I would be extremely tempted to buy euros upfront as the Brexit story has the potential to crash the pound if the negotiations go horribly wrong.

For further information in regards to GBPEUR currency transfers feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

** If you are already using a brokerage and would like to know if you are receiving the best rates possible email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands! **

GBP Rates Before Bank of England Meeting

The Bank of England meet tomorrow for the next interest rate decision where it is expected that interest rates will remain on hold. After a series of weaker economic data the pressure is now firmly off the central bank from raising interest rates tomorrow. A combination of weak retail sales data, a drop in the performance of the services sector and most importantly the sharper fall seen in the Gross Domestic Product numbers all make for a valid reason for the Bank of England to not raise rates. Clients looking to buy Euros may wish to consider moving before the event to avoid potential disappointment.

UK GDP for the first quarter arrived at just 0.1% indicating the lowest growth in the UK in five years. The cold weather brought from the Beast from the East is the main contributor to the weaker data but there hasn’t been a bounce yet which could restore some calm to the markets.

The pound could see a small rally if the central bank indicates that it is still set for additional hikes later this year. However in my opinion the Bank of England are more likely to highlight risks to the British economy especially when considering the continuing Brexit negotiations.

For the Eurozone the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will be speaking tomorrow and he may offer some more clues as to future monetary policy. He has recently cited low inflation as a reason to continue with its asset purchasing scheme which has proved negative for Euro exchange rates. For the moment the central bank is continuing with the tapering of the vast asset purchasing scheme and more of this rhetoric should prove negative for Euro exchange rates.

For more information on sterling exchange rates and the Euro and how to take advantage of any spikes in the currency markets then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Weaker Ahead of Local Elections

UK Prime Minister Theresa May held her Brexit cabinet meeting yesterday afternoon which could offer further direction for the Brexit negotiations and hence the pound. The issue of the day is whether Britain should remain part of the customs union with the EU. Brexit negotiator Oliver Robbins is trying to steer the government towards a customs partnership that would keep some of the benefits of the single market although members of the cabinet are unlikely to vote in favour of this option.

Overnight there has been a strong backlash within the government against the proposed customs partnership and this only adds to the uncertainty for the pound ahead of local elections tomorrow. GBP EUR has fallen to a low of 1.322 this morning. This could be a milestone in the Brexit process and any developments are likely to see new direction for the pound. Political uncertainty continues to be a major driving force for sterling exchange rates.

The pound is set for a volatile few months but it will be later in May when the House of Commons will be forced to vote on a number of amendments that will try to enforce a close relationship with the EU with a view to keeping Britain in the single market. This will be a huge test for Theresa May and a vote of confidence has been mooted which would take the country close to the prospect of a general election.

UK Purchasing Managers Index data for the construction sector could give the pound a boost if there is any pick up following the awful winter which has helped push down UK Gross Domestic Product after the Beast from the East. The services sector numbers will be released tomorrow and could also provide a rally if there is some relief for the markets that it is not all doom and gloom

For more information on the Euro and how to make the most of any opportunities when buying or selling Euros then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP EUR Moves Higher Towards 1.16

The pound continues to maintain the higher ground against the Euro with rates pushing towards 1.16 for the GBP EUR pair. There is currently an excellent opportunity for buying Euros and those looking to secure may be wise to take the risk out of the market place. So far this year when there has been a surge higher for the GBP EUR it has only lasted for a brief period before falling lower.

The outlook does appear to be brighter at present with rates for GBP EUR sitting at an 11 month high although any Brexit developments this week could see the pound fall lower. Sterling is performing better for a number of reasons which hare all contributing to a better economic outlook. UK unemployment is currently at a 43 year low and recent UK retail sales data arrived considerably better than expected. The last retail sales numbers arrived at -0.2% whilst the latest numbers jumped into positive territory at 0.4%.

Politics are likely to have a big impact on sterling exchange rates this week with a parliamentary discussion on Syria later today which follows on from yesterday’s marathon questions session. The other big factor is Brexit and this week sees the start of the third round of negotiations which will tackle the thorny issue of trade.

This is supposed to be the most complex issue to negotiate and any difficulties in these coming weeks could see the pound tumble form its recent highs. There is a still a long way to go in the Brexit negotiations and I would expect to see many more twist and turns creating added volatility for the pound and Euro.

For more information on sterling exchange rates and how to make the most of these opportunities in the currency markets then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Will the GBP/EUR rate breach 1.16 this month, and what’s causing the Pound to gain in value?

Sterling has performed well once again today, gaining by almost half a percent against the Euro and almost hitting 1.16 at its highest point.

Sentiment surrounding the UK economy and the Pound’s value moving forward has been improving recently, as the economy and a number of important stumbling blocks have been passed. Hopes of an interest rate hike from the Bank of England next month have jumped to the extent that the hike is almost set in stone. The BoE has hinted on numerous occasions that the rate hike is on the cards so I actually think that the interest rate hike has already been priced in so I’m not expecting to see a jump in the rate if it actually takes place. The risk is perhaps more to the downside as if there is no hike I think the Pound will fall.

The Brexit transitional agreement has already been agreed which is another reason for the stronger Pound. Moving forward there is the issue surrounding the Northern Irish border and I think this may pose a threat to a stronger Pound as the year goes on.

This week there will be the release of wage growth for the UK. This is a key area as wage growth had lagged inflation but now it’s expected to overtake the inflation level and therefore firm up the BoE’s interest rate plans. If you would like to discuss this economic data release in more detail do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Which data releases could influence the GBP/EUR rate this week? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has so far managed to hold onto its recent gains and remain trading above the 1.14 mark. This suggests to me that market sentiment surrounding the Pound has improved as previously this was the top end of the current trend and GBP/EUR would usually struggle to hold its ground at these levels.

The pair did reach 1.15 at one stage recently after news broke that the Brexit transitional deal had been arranged, much to the joys of the financial markets. This matter had been a concern previously and limited the upside for the Pound, so understandably Sterling spiked upward in the wake of the news.

Sterling has also been boosted after the Bank of England has hinted at raising interest rates in May of this year, meaning that the monetary policy of the BoE is likely to be more aggressive than many had initially expected. The pick up in wage growth has also increased these chances as wage growth begins to align with the increasing inflation levels.

Later this week there will be PMI releases covering a number of sectors within the UK, all of which are expected to show slowdowns. If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving the GBP/EUR pair, it may be wise looking into the current trade levels in case the PMI releases are worse than expected. They offer us forward looking insight into market sentiments so a gloomy outlook could result in a weaker Pound.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

ECB’s inflation concerns weaken the Euro, will GBP/EUR manage to breach 1.13 anytime soon? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate breached 1.13 today before falling back into the later 1.12’s.

Some bearish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi first thing this morning put the Euro on the back foot throughout the day, although it does appear to have some support around the 1.13 mark.

Draghi stated that there needs to be further evidence that inflation dynamics are moving in the right direction before the ECB will consider ending its extensive quantitative easing programme which appears to have disappointed the markets.

Aside from this issue data this morning showed that there have been contractions in EU employment, and industrial production figures also disappointed out of the EU as figures showed much weaker performance in January than expected.

The Pound on the other hand has been boosted recently as fears surrounding the Brexit and the transitional deal have subdued somewhat. I do think that those planning on making a currency exchange involving the Pound should be aware that details of the transitional agreement are due to go public within the next 10 days so it’ll be interesting to see how GBP exchange perform in the wake of that news.

There is a quiet end to the week scheduled for UK economic data so it’s likely that politics will remain the main mover of GBPEUR exchange rates. If you would like to be notified should there be a spike between GBP/EUR, do make me aware.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Will the release of the Brexit plan result in a stronger Pound? (Joseph Wright)

The negotiations between the UK and EU regarding the Brexit have been heating up recently, and we’re shortly expected to know what the UK’s stance is.

Just yesterday UK Prime Minister, Theresa May held emergency talks with senior cabinet members behind closed doors. The talks took place at her country residence, Chequers and one MP told the press that she ‘played a blinder’. Within the next month we’re expected to know what the Brexit plans are so I think although the markets are quite calm at the moment, we could see a lot of movement for the Pound to Euro rate in the next month.

Next week Theresa May will also be giving a speech again outlining her stance on Brexit talks so far and plans moving forward.

Although economic data is once again having an effect on the Pounds value I think that politics is likely to be the main driver of GBP exchange rates in the current climate, which makes it harder to judge where the Pound will move next and when.

If you would like to be notified in the event of a major spike for the Pound in either direction, do feel free to register your interest with me as working on a trading floor allows us to react in the wake of a major move.

Later today there will be the release of EU Inflation data which could move the markets depending on how the figure comes out.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP EUR Falls on Weaker Unemployment Data

The pound has slipped from the spike seen yesterday after UK unemployment surprised the markets with a weaker headline figure. Rates for GBP EUR are currently sitting at 1.1330 for the pair having fallen lower after the headline UK unemployment figure rose to 4.4% from 4.3%. Unemployment unexpectedly rose from in the last quarter and represents the sharpest increase in the headline figure for almost five years. Although unemployment is still extremely healthy it is still a sign that there the economy is seeing some small cracks emerging and the fear is that economic growth may start to falter. It also lends support to the view that the Bank of England may not be so keen to raise interest rates which it signalled last week.

The pound had see a good jump higher on the back of Brexit comments suggesting the EU would be prepared to look at an exclusive arrangement for single market access although any gains gave proven limited.

UK Gross Domestic product figures are released tomorrow morning and could create even more volatility for sterling exchange rates. Any drop in the numbers is likely to be seen as negative for the British economy and hence the price of sterling. The important numbers are released at 09:30 and any clients looking to buy Euros or sell Euros would be wise to be in touch around the event to avoid potential disappointment.

The Euro is also likely to see major volatility on the back of the ongoing German political situation. A vote by members of the Social Democratic party will be eagerly awaited and could see the Euro react if there is no agreement on the formation of the grand coalition.

To discuss how the pound is likely to be impacted by these events and how to try and maximise on the rates of exchange as they happen then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Will today’s speech give GBP/EUR direction? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has been hovering around the 1.13 mark over the past 24 hours, but a key speech in Austria this morning could offer the pair some direction moving forward.

At 9.30am this morning David Davis, the Brexit Secretary will give a speech on Brexit where he is expected to say ‘Britain won’t turn into a Mad Max-style dystopia’. He’s also expected to say that Britain won’t abandon workers’ rights and environmental concerns after Brexit.

In the build up to this the Pound has softened against some major currency pairs but it’s holding its ground against the Euro so far, leading me to believe that some bullish comments from David Davis are likely to result in GBP/EUR breaching 1.13.

Aside from this morning I think the next month could be busy for GBP exchange rates as within the next month we’re likely to know the UK’s stance on the Brexit transitional deal. Also the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond will announce the latest Spring statement so there are plenty of events that could potentially move the markets.

If you would like to be kept updated in the event of a major market move for GBP/EUR, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP EUR Rates ahead of Boris Johnson Valentines Day Speech

The pound could see considerable volatility against the Euro later today following an expected valentines day speech from Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson. Politics and Brexit continues to be the biggest driver for sterling exchange rates and any developments here are likely to see market reaction for GBP EUR. The speech which is anticipated to unite remain and leave supporters may give some clues as to the future direction of Brexit. Boris Johnson when he joined the Leave side of the argument back in 2016 resulted in a drop in the price of sterling by around 2% which highlights there could be a considerable market reaction today.

UK inflation data arrived slightly higher than expected yesterday at 3% compare to the expected 2.9% which should in theory help support the pound. The Bank of England have hinted strongly that there may have to be an interest rate quite soon and the markets are beginning to price in such a hike for May.

EU GDP data from Germany was released this morning which arrived at a healthy 2.3% which was above expectation of 2.2% helping support the Euro in morning trade. The official figures for the EU as a whole will be released later this morning at 10am and a good number should help reinforce Euro exchange rates today.

German politics are also set to be the main focus after it has been reported that the Social Democrat Party leader Martin Schulz has resigned as party leader putting into question the future of the proposed coalition government. UK Prime Minister Theresa may will also be in Munich on Saturday meeting leaders where she is set to make a speech about security and cooperation between Britain and the EU. Once again any clues on the future path of Brexit will be eagerly awaited by the markets.

To discuss how these events are likely to impact on your Euro requirement then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Super Thursday results in a stronger Pound, where to now for the GBP/EUR rate? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound was boosted across the board of major currency pairs yesterday afternoon after the Bank of England delivered a far more bullish statement than many had expected.

Although interest rates were held at 0.5% there was talk of the stronger than expected global economy likely to result in a more aggressive approach from the BoE as soon as this year.

Financial markets are now pricing an interest rate hike into the Pounds value and it’s predicted that this could happen as soon as May.

There have also been forecasts of a higher GBP/EUR rate this year with TD Securities predicting that the rate will hit 1.1627 in the first quarter of this year. The rate went over 1.14 yesterday afternoon although there has been a bout of profit taking since as the pair have since dropped below this mark.

In such a sensitive political environment the rates can move quite dramatically so if you’re planning on making a currency exchange involving the pair, it’s worth making me aware of your plans so that if the rate spikes, I can keep you updated.

Those hoping for a stronger Pound should be aware that if there has less bullish comments from the BoE regarding monetary policy, the Pound is likely to lose a lot of the gains from yesterday very quickly.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Brexit Talks key to GBP/EUR Levels (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/EUR- 1.15 seems to be a Resistance Point

GBP/EUR has been fluctuating between 1.12-1.15 for some time. The absolute peak has been just above 1.15 and has only been available for small windows. It soon retracts which could be attributed to profit taking.

One of the key factors on GBP/EUR at present is Brexit Negotiations. The uncertainty surrounding talks is keeping Sterling anchored below 1.15. If we have further clarity on how talks are progressing expect the pound to strengthen. There has been good news of late with both Dutch and Spanish finance miniters saying they would like a close relationship with the UK after Brexit and are forthcoming in regards to getting a deal in place. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor made similar comments and as Germany is the engine room of the EU this caused substantial Euro strength.

Freedom of movement of people seems to be the sticking point in current talks, which is obviously a problem with the UK as one of the main reasons for leaving the EU was to have immigration control. I feel this decision will be key to Brexit talks. If freedom of movement of people is agreed by the UK I would expect GBP/EUR to breach 1.15 as trade talks can then progress.

QE could continue past September Target

Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank has declared that the current Quantitative Easing (QE) program could continue past it’s September completion date. Despite record growth in the bloc in 2017 inflation is struggling and Draghi is reluctant to change monetary policy due to this. He has stated that inflation will move natural towards the 2% target, but I am not so convinced.

The need to continue QE shows a lack of confidence in the economy, although we are seeing record highs against the USD, this is more due to Dollar weakness than Euro strength. I do not think the Euro will make significant gains in Sterling unless there is a major hindrance in Brexit talks.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.

If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and  I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am  sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading.

 

Will the pound continue to the rise against the Euro?

The pound had been struggling against the Euro for the last few months but finally, we have some reasons to be cheerful. The GBPEUR rate has hit a December high which was only previously reached back in May 2017. With the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting today to discuss their latest policy decision, further volatility could be ahead!

The general impression for sterling is that this run of form should continue as the outlook on Brexit improves. Some positive economic data for the Unemployment figures gave rise to more confidence in the UK economy, Angela Merkel was also reported saying she wished for close ties with the UK which was further evidence of the kind of support sterling is receiving.

Of course, the Brexit talks will begin soon enough and this will make it much more difficult for the positivity to continue indefinitely. Expectations for the pound remain for it to still struggle in the months and weeks ahead as new information on the Brexit is released.

If you have a transfer buying or selling the Euro against the pound then today’s news will be critical to the next direction the rates will take. Personally, I think the ECB will be positive about the future path on reducing their QE (Quantitative Easing) program which will give rise to Euro strength.

The market could, however, be guilty of pricing in the prospect of Euro strength so any deviation from this might actually see the Euro weaken. GBPEUR could easily be over 1.15 or up to 1.16. Equally, it could be back down to 1.12 or 1.13 by the end of the day.

If you have a transfer buying or selling the pound against the Euro we are here to help with the best rates of exchange and provide guided insight and information on the market for you, to help you make an informed decision about what might be the best way forward.

Please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

What will happen on GBPEUR for the rest of January?

The pound to Euro rate has been trading in a very tight range for the last few weeks with a high to low variation of 1.12-1.1360. This is presenting a good time of consolidation for clients looking to buy and sell Euros to make plans surrounding better times to look at any currency exchanges. What is definite is that the rate will not stay like this forever and sooner or later we will see a change.

Key events will focus on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting next Thursday 25th January. Investors will be closely monitoring any changes we might see in the economic policy of the ECB which might see a shift on the Euro. Overall expectations for the Euro centre around the reduction in their QE program and possibly the prospect of raising interest rates.

The Bank of England will meet in February, general impressions are that the pound will continue to rise if they do raise interest rates but this might not be until much later in the year. The UK has now falling inflation which would actually see the pound falling as it removes the pressure on interest rate hikes.

GBPEUR has been trading in a range of 1.10-1.145 since October so the prospect of any major deviation from this is limited. I would personally be expecting GBPEUR to remain this kind of range for the end of January. Most prospects for the future focus on the outlook on the pound to Euro rates remaining at these more favourable levels for Euros buyers.

If you have a transfer to consider in the future then making plans in advance is key to maximising the position. For more information at no cost or obligation on the best strategies to maximise your position please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

What can we expect in 2018 on GBPEUR exchange rates?

2018 is looking like another volatile year with plenty of fresh news and developments in a number of areas which could see changes and shifts in the GBPEUR exchange rate. Notably, Brexit will continue to be a key driver for the pound which will see the rates inextricably linked to shifts in sentiment over the Brexit. The Euro has a number of key hurdles to overcome, mainly political like the UK.

If you are considering buying Euros you would be forgiven for checking the headlines over Angela Merkel and the Spanish situation and expecting the Euro to be much weaker. The outlook for the Euro is however still very positive despite the fear and uncertainty surrounding the political situation. Yes, the outlook for the Euro has deteriorated slightly but the prospects for the Euro still remain rather positive.

All in all, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit will I feel be more of a drag on GBPEUR than the political uncertainty in the Eurozone. We should see the market shift according to the run of events which could see the Euro weaker in March when we have the Italian election. Further negative developments on the Spanish or German situation could weigh on the Euro but as mentioned I do feel the weakness of the pound will remain more in focus once again in 2018.

If you are buying or selling Euros for pounds the exchange rate is at an important junction as we have more reasons to be positive over Brexit which has helped the pound, but a number of challenges remain ahead. If you wish to get an overview of the position or discuss further a forecast relating specifically to your position, please feel free to contact me Jonny to discuss further your currency situation.

To learn more about the year ahead on GBPEUR exchange rates and discuss options and strategy please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk.