Tag Archives: Sterling exchange rates

GBP EUR Moves Higher Towards 1.16

The pound continues to maintain the higher ground against the Euro with rates pushing towards 1.16 for the GBP EUR pair. There is currently an excellent opportunity for buying Euros and those looking to secure may be wise to take the risk out of the market place. So far this year when there has been a surge higher for the GBP EUR it has only lasted for a brief period before falling lower.

The outlook does appear to be brighter at present with rates for GBP EUR sitting at an 11 month high although any Brexit developments this week could see the pound fall lower. Sterling is performing better for a number of reasons which hare all contributing to a better economic outlook. UK unemployment is currently at a 43 year low and recent UK retail sales data arrived considerably better than expected. The last retail sales numbers arrived at -0.2% whilst the latest numbers jumped into positive territory at 0.4%.

Politics are likely to have a big impact on sterling exchange rates this week with a parliamentary discussion on Syria later today which follows on from yesterday’s marathon questions session. The other big factor is Brexit and this week sees the start of the third round of negotiations which will tackle the thorny issue of trade.

This is supposed to be the most complex issue to negotiate and any difficulties in these coming weeks could see the pound tumble form its recent highs. There is a still a long way to go in the Brexit negotiations and I would expect to see many more twist and turns creating added volatility for the pound and Euro.

For more information on sterling exchange rates and how to make the most of these opportunities in the currency markets then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Will the GBP/EUR rate breach 1.16 this month, and what’s causing the Pound to gain in value?

Sterling has performed well once again today, gaining by almost half a percent against the Euro and almost hitting 1.16 at its highest point.

Sentiment surrounding the UK economy and the Pound’s value moving forward has been improving recently, as the economy and a number of important stumbling blocks have been passed. Hopes of an interest rate hike from the Bank of England next month have jumped to the extent that the hike is almost set in stone. The BoE has hinted on numerous occasions that the rate hike is on the cards so I actually think that the interest rate hike has already been priced in so I’m not expecting to see a jump in the rate if it actually takes place. The risk is perhaps more to the downside as if there is no hike I think the Pound will fall.

The Brexit transitional agreement has already been agreed which is another reason for the stronger Pound. Moving forward there is the issue surrounding the Northern Irish border and I think this may pose a threat to a stronger Pound as the year goes on.

This week there will be the release of wage growth for the UK. This is a key area as wage growth had lagged inflation but now it’s expected to overtake the inflation level and therefore firm up the BoE’s interest rate plans. If you would like to discuss this economic data release in more detail do feel free to get in touch.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Which data releases could influence the GBP/EUR rate this week? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has so far managed to hold onto its recent gains and remain trading above the 1.14 mark. This suggests to me that market sentiment surrounding the Pound has improved as previously this was the top end of the current trend and GBP/EUR would usually struggle to hold its ground at these levels.

The pair did reach 1.15 at one stage recently after news broke that the Brexit transitional deal had been arranged, much to the joys of the financial markets. This matter had been a concern previously and limited the upside for the Pound, so understandably Sterling spiked upward in the wake of the news.

Sterling has also been boosted after the Bank of England has hinted at raising interest rates in May of this year, meaning that the monetary policy of the BoE is likely to be more aggressive than many had initially expected. The pick up in wage growth has also increased these chances as wage growth begins to align with the increasing inflation levels.

Later this week there will be PMI releases covering a number of sectors within the UK, all of which are expected to show slowdowns. If you have an upcoming currency requirement involving the GBP/EUR pair, it may be wise looking into the current trade levels in case the PMI releases are worse than expected. They offer us forward looking insight into market sentiments so a gloomy outlook could result in a weaker Pound.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

ECB’s inflation concerns weaken the Euro, will GBP/EUR manage to breach 1.13 anytime soon? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate breached 1.13 today before falling back into the later 1.12’s.

Some bearish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi first thing this morning put the Euro on the back foot throughout the day, although it does appear to have some support around the 1.13 mark.

Draghi stated that there needs to be further evidence that inflation dynamics are moving in the right direction before the ECB will consider ending its extensive quantitative easing programme which appears to have disappointed the markets.

Aside from this issue data this morning showed that there have been contractions in EU employment, and industrial production figures also disappointed out of the EU as figures showed much weaker performance in January than expected.

The Pound on the other hand has been boosted recently as fears surrounding the Brexit and the transitional deal have subdued somewhat. I do think that those planning on making a currency exchange involving the Pound should be aware that details of the transitional agreement are due to go public within the next 10 days so it’ll be interesting to see how GBP exchange perform in the wake of that news.

There is a quiet end to the week scheduled for UK economic data so it’s likely that politics will remain the main mover of GBPEUR exchange rates. If you would like to be notified should there be a spike between GBP/EUR, do make me aware.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Will the release of the Brexit plan result in a stronger Pound? (Joseph Wright)

The negotiations between the UK and EU regarding the Brexit have been heating up recently, and we’re shortly expected to know what the UK’s stance is.

Just yesterday UK Prime Minister, Theresa May held emergency talks with senior cabinet members behind closed doors. The talks took place at her country residence, Chequers and one MP told the press that she ‘played a blinder’. Within the next month we’re expected to know what the Brexit plans are so I think although the markets are quite calm at the moment, we could see a lot of movement for the Pound to Euro rate in the next month.

Next week Theresa May will also be giving a speech again outlining her stance on Brexit talks so far and plans moving forward.

Although economic data is once again having an effect on the Pounds value I think that politics is likely to be the main driver of GBP exchange rates in the current climate, which makes it harder to judge where the Pound will move next and when.

If you would like to be notified in the event of a major spike for the Pound in either direction, do feel free to register your interest with me as working on a trading floor allows us to react in the wake of a major move.

Later today there will be the release of EU Inflation data which could move the markets depending on how the figure comes out.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP EUR Falls on Weaker Unemployment Data

The pound has slipped from the spike seen yesterday after UK unemployment surprised the markets with a weaker headline figure. Rates for GBP EUR are currently sitting at 1.1330 for the pair having fallen lower after the headline UK unemployment figure rose to 4.4% from 4.3%. Unemployment unexpectedly rose from in the last quarter and represents the sharpest increase in the headline figure for almost five years. Although unemployment is still extremely healthy it is still a sign that there the economy is seeing some small cracks emerging and the fear is that economic growth may start to falter. It also lends support to the view that the Bank of England may not be so keen to raise interest rates which it signalled last week.

The pound had see a good jump higher on the back of Brexit comments suggesting the EU would be prepared to look at an exclusive arrangement for single market access although any gains gave proven limited.

UK Gross Domestic product figures are released tomorrow morning and could create even more volatility for sterling exchange rates. Any drop in the numbers is likely to be seen as negative for the British economy and hence the price of sterling. The important numbers are released at 09:30 and any clients looking to buy Euros or sell Euros would be wise to be in touch around the event to avoid potential disappointment.

The Euro is also likely to see major volatility on the back of the ongoing German political situation. A vote by members of the Social Democratic party will be eagerly awaited and could see the Euro react if there is no agreement on the formation of the grand coalition.

To discuss how the pound is likely to be impacted by these events and how to try and maximise on the rates of exchange as they happen then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Will today’s speech give GBP/EUR direction? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has been hovering around the 1.13 mark over the past 24 hours, but a key speech in Austria this morning could offer the pair some direction moving forward.

At 9.30am this morning David Davis, the Brexit Secretary will give a speech on Brexit where he is expected to say ‘Britain won’t turn into a Mad Max-style dystopia’. He’s also expected to say that Britain won’t abandon workers’ rights and environmental concerns after Brexit.

In the build up to this the Pound has softened against some major currency pairs but it’s holding its ground against the Euro so far, leading me to believe that some bullish comments from David Davis are likely to result in GBP/EUR breaching 1.13.

Aside from this morning I think the next month could be busy for GBP exchange rates as within the next month we’re likely to know the UK’s stance on the Brexit transitional deal. Also the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond will announce the latest Spring statement so there are plenty of events that could potentially move the markets.

If you would like to be kept updated in the event of a major market move for GBP/EUR, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

GBP EUR Rates ahead of Boris Johnson Valentines Day Speech

The pound could see considerable volatility against the Euro later today following an expected valentines day speech from Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson. Politics and Brexit continues to be the biggest driver for sterling exchange rates and any developments here are likely to see market reaction for GBP EUR. The speech which is anticipated to unite remain and leave supporters may give some clues as to the future direction of Brexit. Boris Johnson when he joined the Leave side of the argument back in 2016 resulted in a drop in the price of sterling by around 2% which highlights there could be a considerable market reaction today.

UK inflation data arrived slightly higher than expected yesterday at 3% compare to the expected 2.9% which should in theory help support the pound. The Bank of England have hinted strongly that there may have to be an interest rate quite soon and the markets are beginning to price in such a hike for May.

EU GDP data from Germany was released this morning which arrived at a healthy 2.3% which was above expectation of 2.2% helping support the Euro in morning trade. The official figures for the EU as a whole will be released later this morning at 10am and a good number should help reinforce Euro exchange rates today.

German politics are also set to be the main focus after it has been reported that the Social Democrat Party leader Martin Schulz has resigned as party leader putting into question the future of the proposed coalition government. UK Prime Minister Theresa may will also be in Munich on Saturday meeting leaders where she is set to make a speech about security and cooperation between Britain and the EU. Once again any clues on the future path of Brexit will be eagerly awaited by the markets.

To discuss how these events are likely to impact on your Euro requirement then please get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

Super Thursday results in a stronger Pound, where to now for the GBP/EUR rate? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound was boosted across the board of major currency pairs yesterday afternoon after the Bank of England delivered a far more bullish statement than many had expected.

Although interest rates were held at 0.5% there was talk of the stronger than expected global economy likely to result in a more aggressive approach from the BoE as soon as this year.

Financial markets are now pricing an interest rate hike into the Pounds value and it’s predicted that this could happen as soon as May.

There have also been forecasts of a higher GBP/EUR rate this year with TD Securities predicting that the rate will hit 1.1627 in the first quarter of this year. The rate went over 1.14 yesterday afternoon although there has been a bout of profit taking since as the pair have since dropped below this mark.

In such a sensitive political environment the rates can move quite dramatically so if you’re planning on making a currency exchange involving the pair, it’s worth making me aware of your plans so that if the rate spikes, I can keep you updated.

Those hoping for a stronger Pound should be aware that if there has less bullish comments from the BoE regarding monetary policy, the Pound is likely to lose a lot of the gains from yesterday very quickly.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Brexit Talks key to GBP/EUR Levels (Daniel Johnson)

GBP/EUR- 1.15 seems to be a Resistance Point

GBP/EUR has been fluctuating between 1.12-1.15 for some time. The absolute peak has been just above 1.15 and has only been available for small windows. It soon retracts which could be attributed to profit taking.

One of the key factors on GBP/EUR at present is Brexit Negotiations. The uncertainty surrounding talks is keeping Sterling anchored below 1.15. If we have further clarity on how talks are progressing expect the pound to strengthen. There has been good news of late with both Dutch and Spanish finance miniters saying they would like a close relationship with the UK after Brexit and are forthcoming in regards to getting a deal in place. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor made similar comments and as Germany is the engine room of the EU this caused substantial Euro strength.

Freedom of movement of people seems to be the sticking point in current talks, which is obviously a problem with the UK as one of the main reasons for leaving the EU was to have immigration control. I feel this decision will be key to Brexit talks. If freedom of movement of people is agreed by the UK I would expect GBP/EUR to breach 1.15 as trade talks can then progress.

QE could continue past September Target

Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank has declared that the current Quantitative Easing (QE) program could continue past it’s September completion date. Despite record growth in the bloc in 2017 inflation is struggling and Draghi is reluctant to change monetary policy due to this. He has stated that inflation will move natural towards the 2% target, but I am not so convinced.

The need to continue QE shows a lack of confidence in the economy, although we are seeing record highs against the USD, this is more due to Dollar weakness than Euro strength. I do not think the Euro will make significant gains in Sterling unless there is a major hindrance in Brexit talks.

If you have a currency requirement I will be happy to assist. If you let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to produce a free trading strategy. During a period of such uncertainty it is important to be in touch with an experienced broker if you wish to maximize your return. We have tools at our disposal to make sure you do not miss out if there is a spike in your favour.

If you already have a currency provider in place. Drop me an email with what you are being offered and  I am very confident I will be able to demonstrate a significant saving. It will only take you two minutes and I am  sure it will be worth your while. You can trade in safety knowing you are with a Foreign Currency Direct PLC, a firm trading for over 16yrs and FCA registered.

If you would like my help feel free to email me at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading.

 

Will the pound continue to the rise against the Euro?

The pound had been struggling against the Euro for the last few months but finally, we have some reasons to be cheerful. The GBPEUR rate has hit a December high which was only previously reached back in May 2017. With the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting today to discuss their latest policy decision, further volatility could be ahead!

The general impression for sterling is that this run of form should continue as the outlook on Brexit improves. Some positive economic data for the Unemployment figures gave rise to more confidence in the UK economy, Angela Merkel was also reported saying she wished for close ties with the UK which was further evidence of the kind of support sterling is receiving.

Of course, the Brexit talks will begin soon enough and this will make it much more difficult for the positivity to continue indefinitely. Expectations for the pound remain for it to still struggle in the months and weeks ahead as new information on the Brexit is released.

If you have a transfer buying or selling the Euro against the pound then today’s news will be critical to the next direction the rates will take. Personally, I think the ECB will be positive about the future path on reducing their QE (Quantitative Easing) program which will give rise to Euro strength.

The market could, however, be guilty of pricing in the prospect of Euro strength so any deviation from this might actually see the Euro weaken. GBPEUR could easily be over 1.15 or up to 1.16. Equally, it could be back down to 1.12 or 1.13 by the end of the day.

If you have a transfer buying or selling the pound against the Euro we are here to help with the best rates of exchange and provide guided insight and information on the market for you, to help you make an informed decision about what might be the best way forward.

Please contact me Jonathan on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

What will happen on GBPEUR for the rest of January?

The pound to Euro rate has been trading in a very tight range for the last few weeks with a high to low variation of 1.12-1.1360. This is presenting a good time of consolidation for clients looking to buy and sell Euros to make plans surrounding better times to look at any currency exchanges. What is definite is that the rate will not stay like this forever and sooner or later we will see a change.

Key events will focus on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting next Thursday 25th January. Investors will be closely monitoring any changes we might see in the economic policy of the ECB which might see a shift on the Euro. Overall expectations for the Euro centre around the reduction in their QE program and possibly the prospect of raising interest rates.

The Bank of England will meet in February, general impressions are that the pound will continue to rise if they do raise interest rates but this might not be until much later in the year. The UK has now falling inflation which would actually see the pound falling as it removes the pressure on interest rate hikes.

GBPEUR has been trading in a range of 1.10-1.145 since October so the prospect of any major deviation from this is limited. I would personally be expecting GBPEUR to remain this kind of range for the end of January. Most prospects for the future focus on the outlook on the pound to Euro rates remaining at these more favourable levels for Euros buyers.

If you have a transfer to consider in the future then making plans in advance is key to maximising the position. For more information at no cost or obligation on the best strategies to maximise your position please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

What can we expect in 2018 on GBPEUR exchange rates?

2018 is looking like another volatile year with plenty of fresh news and developments in a number of areas which could see changes and shifts in the GBPEUR exchange rate. Notably, Brexit will continue to be a key driver for the pound which will see the rates inextricably linked to shifts in sentiment over the Brexit. The Euro has a number of key hurdles to overcome, mainly political like the UK.

If you are considering buying Euros you would be forgiven for checking the headlines over Angela Merkel and the Spanish situation and expecting the Euro to be much weaker. The outlook for the Euro is however still very positive despite the fear and uncertainty surrounding the political situation. Yes, the outlook for the Euro has deteriorated slightly but the prospects for the Euro still remain rather positive.

All in all, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit will I feel be more of a drag on GBPEUR than the political uncertainty in the Eurozone. We should see the market shift according to the run of events which could see the Euro weaker in March when we have the Italian election. Further negative developments on the Spanish or German situation could weigh on the Euro but as mentioned I do feel the weakness of the pound will remain more in focus once again in 2018.

If you are buying or selling Euros for pounds the exchange rate is at an important junction as we have more reasons to be positive over Brexit which has helped the pound, but a number of challenges remain ahead. If you wish to get an overview of the position or discuss further a forecast relating specifically to your position, please feel free to contact me Jonny to discuss further your currency situation.

To learn more about the year ahead on GBPEUR exchange rates and discuss options and strategy please contact me on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

GBP EUR Rates before EU Summit

The pound should be in for a volatile couple of days with Theresa May flying to Brussels today to meet the other 27 European leaders at this summit. It will be decided officially if sufficient progress has been made for talks to move on to the second phase in the negotiations and the outcome should have a sizeable impact on the price of GBP EUR.

If the mood is positive from both the UK and EU side then this is likely to have a positive impact on sterling exchange rates. A move back over 1.15 for GBP EUR seems entirely plausible and could present some good opportunities for those clients looking to buy Euros. Those clients looking at selling Euros for pounds would be wise to consider securing a rate prior to any announcements as the odds would suggest that an agreement will be reached.

Theresa May goes to Brussels today having lost a key vote in the House of Commons last night which allows parliament to now have vote on the final deal offered by the EU and some would argue it weakens her hand in these important negotiations. This could cause problems further down the line in government as well as delays in delivering Brexit and in my view this is likley to create additional uncertainty for sterling exchange rates going forward. A key vote next week on the setting of a date for Brexit enshrining it into law will be crucial and if the government was to lose this vote then the pound could come under additional pressure. The Bank of England and European Central Bank interest rate decisions today are also likely to create more volatility for GBP EUR.

Today and tomorrow could see major market movement on the back of the summit so to discuss how your individual currency requirement is likely to be impacted by these events then please feel free to get in touch with me at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP EUR Recovers Ground on Expected Brexit Deal

GBP EUR exchange rates have rallied in afternoon trade recovering the losses seen this morning for this pair. The pound has seen a hugely volatile couple of days as the Brexit negotiations continue to be the main driving force for sterling exchange rates. The lack of agreement at the last moment yesterday when the deal was scuppered by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) saw sterling fall from its recent highs although it is clear that an agreement is the preferred option from all sides.

Any breakthrough which could come later this week could see the pound rally as the prospect of a no deal scenario becomes less likely. Those who are optimistic could see some excellent gains for those clients looking to buy Euros. The crunch point will be the end of next week after the EU summit 14th & 15th December. Any deal should be worked out by this time and any failure in not doing so would almost certainly see the pound weaken.

Data is light for both the UK and EU on Wednesday so focus will move to UK house price numbers on Thursday and EU Gross Domestic Product data. The EU had suffered until recently from very weak economic growth and so these numbers will be closely scrutinised by the European Central Bank. Economic data has largely been positive in recent weeks and confidence in the EU reached a 17 year high in November.

With Brexit negotiations between the relevant parties continuing then developments here will almost certainly overshadow the economic data. Once again it is politics which is having the biggest impact on GBP EUR rates and this is unlikely to change anytime soon with discussions expected to continue right up to the wire in 2019.

For more information on the price of sterling and the Euro then please get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

What can we expect in the coming weeks on GBPEUR?

The pound to Euro rate has risen against the odds as the UK appears to be getting further ahead with its Brexit plans. The European Union is meeting with the UK at the latest Brexit summit on the 14th and 15th December which is the next major phase of the plans. If there is anything you need to look at, whether buying or selling Euros there are two key events to be aware of which may move the market.

The EU Summit is vital but also the Catalonian independence election on the 21st December. The overall belief is that the pound could rise further against the Euro. The overall impression is that the pound could rise further against the Euro if the EU summit does prove interesting for the UK and the pound but actually we need to be careful that all of the goodwill so far towards sterling does not quickly undo itself.

If you have a transfer buying the pound in the future then there is a real chance the Euro will weaken further so it might make sense to be looking to maximise the transfer sooner than later. Overall expectations are that the pound could rise further although there are no guarantees. I would personally be very conscious sterling could suffer longer term because of the Brexit.

If you have a transfer to make buying or selling the pound or the Euro this month there are two key releases which will be important. For more information at no cost or obligation please get in touch by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

GBP EUR Rates Fall on Political Uncertainty

The pound has dropped sharply in afternoon trade with rates for GBP EUR falling to a low of 1.1136. The edited documents in British politics which highlight the impact on Brexit on 58 different sectors appear to have been watered down for other politicians to view in an attempt to try and keep certain elements which are commercially sensitive out of the public domain.

There have now been suggestions from the Labour party that the government could be in contempt of parliament if it refuses to release all details in the reports. This news is yet another issue for this government which is having to tread very carefully with everything going on in this Brexit negotiation and is weighing on sterling exchange rates.

With a stalemate in negotiations between Britain and the EU the markets now look forward to the EU summit in December which could see a hugely volatile period for GBP EUR rates. If the deadlock is broken then there could be a great opportunity to buy Euros. The risk remains however that there could be a no deal and this would likely see the pound tumble sharply which could help anyone looking to sell Euros.

EU data sees consumer confidence numbers tomorrow ahead of the eagerly awaited inflation and unemployment data on Thursday. The EU has suffered with low inflation for almost a decade but this year has managed to see a pick up in the numbers which is helping the Euro make a recovery. A strong number here will only help cement the view that the European Central Bank is coming to an end of its loose monetary policy which should help support the Euro further.

For more information on GBP EUR exchange rates and how these key upcoming events have a direct impact on the rates of exchange and how to maximise on the opportunities as they happen then feel free to get in touch with me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

Sterling Rates Steady after UK Budget

After a very safe budget from Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond yesterday the pound has seen little in the way of volatility on the back of it. The ongoing uncertainty of Brexit remains the main sticking point however and continues to weigh heavily on sterling exchange rates.

GBP EUR is currently sitting at 1.1255 and the markets now wait for the end of next week for the end of a two week ultimatum set by Michel Barnier for Britain to offer more in the divorce bill to try and break the deadlock and move discussions on to future trade. Rumours are circulating that UK Prime Minster Theresa May will offer €38 billion in the first week of December although where rates for GBP EUR move to will very much depend on how well such an offer is received by the EU.

Will the pound strengthen?

Should trade discussions open then this in my view would be very good for sterling exchange rates and there could be a good shift higher for GBP EUR. The risk for those clients waiting for rates to improve is that is the conversation does not move on to trade then this could see the pound weaken materially across all of the major currencies including the Euro. The prospect of a no deal scenario continues to keep the pound at bay. The problems for the pound is that the negotiations will continue right through up until 2019 which leaves a very long period of uncertainty.

Clients looking to buy or sell Euros should pay close attention to developments surrounding the EU ultimatum for more money and would be wise to get in touch to look at the options available and how to take advantage of the better rates when they become available. Feel free to contact me James at jll@currencies.co.uk

GBP EUR Rallies On Expectation of Increased EU Divorce Offer

The pound has found some support at the end of this week after a poor performance across nearly all of the major currencies. GBP EUR has pushed back over 1.12 this morning after rumours have circulated that UK Prime Minister Theresa May will possibly look to increase her offer of a financial settlement to the EU from €20 billion to €40 billion. Theresa May is in Sweden so any commentary here is likely to have an impact on the price of sterling.

If an offer is made later today the pound could react depending on how well that offer is received. The key to the direction will be the response from EU leaders but if received badly then the pound could fall against the Euro. The response today could also tie in to next week’s budget which will be delivered by Chancellor Philip Hammond and this is likely to be a big market mover next week.

UK data softened this week after retail sales numbers fell to their lowest level since 2013. Although the figure was higher than expected the fact that it is materially lower than four years ago is a concern for the British economy and hence the pound. With no UK economic data releases today the focus will be on a speech from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and construction numbers this morning.

UK Gross Domestic product figures are released next week and any improvement here could help lend support to the pound. Considering the NIESR estimate pointed to stronger GDP going forward then there is the potential to see some upside for sterling exchange rates.

It is clear there are so many factors revolving around politics and Brexit which are having a direct impact on the price of sterling and the next week will be crucial in where rates will be heading next. Clients selling Euros continue to see an excellent opportunity for buying pounds. If you would like to discuss your requirement and the impact that these economic and political events are having then please get in touch with me and I will be happy to give you my thoughts. My email address is jll@currencies.co.uk

Will GBPEUR slide below 1.10?

The pound to Euro exchange rate has been bouncing between 1.11 and 1.14 in the last month but lately seems to be on a gentle slide owing to uncertainty over Brexit and the UK government, plus the strengthening Euro. The Eurozone economy was shown to be growing at a very fast pace at 0.6% which has outpaced the US for the year on year at 2.5% versus the US’ 2.3%. Once again it is a case of the Euro rising and the pound weakening, will this continue?

On balance I would expect it probably will, trying to predict the longer term outcome’s are always tricky but we do need to bear in mind the great legal and political challenges ahead for the UK. In my mind these far outweigh what the Eurozone has to go through so ultimately I feel that this see the Euro outperforming the pound.

If you have a transfer buying or selling the pound at present, next week or even in the New Year now is a good time to be making plans. With the all-important UK and Eurozone interest rate decisions out of the way we are now focused on path ahead which will encounter the next developments with Brexit plus the Spanish independence election for Catalonia. Plus 2018 sees the Italian election which will be very closely monitored for signs of anti-EU feelings…

I suspect rates will be trading at fairly similar levels between 1.10 and 1.15 between now and early next year, however any shocks could easily see sterling much lower back below 1.10 again. I would not be ruling this move out and for any clients looking to buy Euros I would be cautiously monitoring the situation for any spikes. If you need to make a transfer and wish to be alerted to any spikes please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk with an outline of your position.

Thank you for reading this post and I hope to discuss your situation and the best strategy very soon.