Tag Archives: sterling forecast

Where next for GBPEUR exchange rates?

The pound has risen against the Euro presenting some excellent fresh opportunities to buy Euros with pounds. We are not quite at the top of the market but are only a couple of cents from the highs of 1.15 seen earlier this month. This is the best level we have had since May 2017 during the UK election. The overall position for Euro buyers might improve further but these levels should not be taken too much for granted at this time in my opinion.

Friday is Theresa May’s speech on Brexit and this could be a big mover for the pound against the Euro, clients looking to buy and sell Euros will of course be aware of the importance of the Brexit which is driving sterling exchange rates. The next big news will be the Italian election on Sunday which could see the Euro weaker, there are lots of worrying scenarios we can paint from the Italian election on Sunday but ultimately I don’t think the Euro will find itself in too much trouble.

With so many different parties the likelihood is a coalition government which struggles to make any real policies stick and ensures that Italian politics stays loosely in its current framework, the chance of it going down a more populist and right-wing route is a possibility but I feel ultimately, unlikely.

If you need a transfer buying or selling the pound against the Euro then making some plans around these key events is vital to maximising any deal and exchange rate you receive. For more information at no cost or obligation then please feel free to contact myself Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

EU Parliament may provide the UK with privileged single market access following Brexit

Business Insider Report suggests there will be Single Market access for Britain

A recent report has stated that EU parliament is currently compiling a detailed resolution to call for more flexibility in relationship talks with the UK. The EU would like to put forward and negotiate an association agreement which would give Britain privileged market access and EU agency membership.

I am not a 100% on the legitimacy of this report as the market moves on rumour as well as fact and investors are yet to bite or possibly it is not common knowledge. If investors had bitten I would have expected substantial Sterling strength, possibly even breaking the current 1.15 mark on GBP/EUR. If the release does take place this weekend GBP/EUR could be in a very different position on Monday.

This would be a huge change in stance for Chief EU negotiator, Michel Barnier who has put forward a proposal similar to that of Canada’s free trade agreement.

It is uncertain how this would pan out however, considering that the Conservatives wish to be free of all European laws following Brexit.

Inflation and Average Wage Growth concerns

Average Wage Growth came in yesterday and it remained anchored at 1.5%. In order to have a healthy economy inflation and wage growth should be close to parity. This is far from the case at present. Despite this there is an 80% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of England (BOE) in May.

Personally I feel this would be the wrong move considering the fragility of the UK economy at present. Be aware, there is the strong possibility that a rate hike in May is already factored into current market levels. If this is the case do not expect significant Sterling strength should the hike take place. The danger is if it does not occur, I would expect heavy falls in Sterling value if this is the outcome.

During such unpredictable times you need an experienced broker on board if you wish to maximise your return. If you have a pending currency transfer let me know the details of your trade I will endeavor to assist. There is no obligation to trade by asking for my help, I will provide a free trading strategy to suit your individual needs.

If you do wish to try our service you can trade in the knowledge we are a no risk entity, as we do not speculate. Foreign Currency Direct PLC has been in business for over 16yrs and we are registered with the FCA. If you already use a provider I can perform a comparison within minutes and I am confident I will demonstrate a considerable saving. I can be contacted at dcj@currencies.co.uk.

A good week for GBPEUR exchange rates

This week the pound has gained momentum against all of the major currencies and in particular the euro. GBPEUR exchange rates have been trading close to a 6 month high and many of my clients have taken advantage.

Early in the week average earning numbers exceeded expectation which was a big surprise as the Bank of England have been predicting that average earnings would continue to fall in the months to come. The problem the Bank of England have been facing is that inflation numbers have been outpacing average earnings.

Earlier today UK GDP numbers have also impressed. The consensus for the quarterly figures were 0.4% and the numbers were released at 0.5%. Furthermore the yearly numbers were set to be released at 1.4% and the number was released at 1.5%.

Central levels of exchange have finished in the 1.14s and for any client buying euros this is a window of opportunity that you may want to take advantage of. In the last 3 weeks, exchange rates have improved by 3 cents and I cant see how we are going to see any further improvements short term.

If you reading this website for the first time as you need to convert GBPEUR, feel free to email me with the reason for the transfer (company goods, property purchase) and timescales you are working to and I will respond with my forecast and the options available to you drl@currencies.co.uk. Alternatively if you would like to discuss your requirements over the phone call 01494-787478 and ask to be put through to Dayle Littlejohn.

If you are already using a brokerage and would like to a free quote email me with the exact figures and I will reply with our live price. This will take you a few minutes and in the past I have saved clients thousands.

Common clients I help on a daily basis are Sole traders, MD or FD of a company, property buyers and sellers. If you are one of the three and are currently using the bank to transfer your currency you need to be made aware that you could be saving money!

 

Will the Euro continue to strengthen and will Carillion drag the Pound down? (Joseph Wright)

The headlines surrounding the Euro at the moment are that the currency is currently trading at an all time high against the US Dollar. The gains are generally being put down to the strong economic outlook for the Euro and also expectations that the European Central Bank will begin to cut back on the current stimulus package as the economy justifies it.

Many economists expect to see the Euro hold its ground at the current levels, and when compared with the Pound I think we may even see the Euro to Pound rate improve further especially if Brexit related issues continue to negatively impact sentiment surrounding the UK economy both during and after the Brexit process.

The case for a stronger Pound hasn’t been helped in the past week as it’s emerged that the UK’s second largest construction company, Carillion is likely to go into liquidation shortly. There is up to 20,000 jobs that could be lost as a result and a number of industries and sub-contractors could also run into issues as a result of this. The company has close links with the UK government and it’s emerged that up to 8 contracts were taken out with the company by the government since profit warnings were announced.  This is likely to be looked into further and I certainly don’t think we’ve heard the end of it.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Will GBPEUR keep on rising?

The pound has finally bounced back against the Euro as weakness and uncertainty in the German political situation opens the door to a more unsettled Euro. The prospect of a second election or Angela Merkel stepping down as Chancellor has seen the Euro undo many of its gains over the last few weeks. What lies ahead for the German Chancellor and how could this influence the Euro?

I expect that there will either be fresh German elections or that Merkel will be forced to step down in order to allow a fresh coalition. It appears that the outlook for the GBPEUR is now much better for clients looking to buy Euros with pounds, we have seen the rate rise above 1.13 this morning.

News that the UK is agreeing a Brexit bill of up to £40bn is also helping the pound which is now benefiting from some of the uncertainty in Germany. With the Spanish Catalonian election next month and then the Italian election next year the outlook for buying Euros has suddenly improved. If you have a transfer buying Euros then making some plans around this potential rise is a smart move since Euro buyers have not had a huge amount to cheer in recent weeks!

We are close to the best time in 3 months to buy Euros with pounds and the rate could rise even further depending on the way the market is going. Overall impressions of the rates are that of course sterling could come under renewed pressure owing to Brexit but for now the tide has turned. Euro buyers should not be too greedy but should be carefully making plans around this improvement.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you in the future.

 

Will Wednesday’s UK GDP Figures impact the GBP/EUR rate? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has been relatively flat so far this week, although tomorrow there could be a spike in the rate as UK GDP figures are scheduled for release around 9.30am.

These figures could be significant as talk of an interest rate hike from the Bank of England next month is heating up, and for that to take place I expect the BoE to be hopeful of impressive figures as raising interest rates whilst economic output is struggling doesn’t really make sense.

With inflation levels in the UK hitting a 5-year high recently there is some pressure of the BoE to manage this, as we’re also seeing a reduction in consumer spending which has been one of the main drivers of the UK economy that’s performed well in the wake of the Brexit vote.

If tomorrow morning doesn’t being any currency movement, then Thursday may as the European Central Bank will update us on their most recent Asset Purchasing Program changes, which many analysts expecting to see a reduction in the current program. Depending on the amount we could see the Euro strengthen as reducing QE suggests the EU economy is normalising.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding any short term price movements between the pair discussed in this blog, do feel free to register your interest with me.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

Pound to Euro rate drops as UK Construction sector contracts, will today’s data push the Pound lower? (Joseph Wright)

Despite issues within the Eurozone at the moment such as the Catalonian independence referendum, the Pound fell against the Euro yesterday after Sterling weakness outweighed Euro weakness.

The past week has yielded some negative data for the Pound which has seen it dip from its highs last month of 1.14. Revised yearly GDP figures were revised downward to 1.5% from the previous figure of 1.7%, mortgage approvals were down by 3000, manufacturing in the UK dropped slightly and UK construction figures dropped quite heavily yesterday.

Today’s data release covers the services sector within the UK which is arguably the more important release as the services sector covers around three-quarters of the UK economy and therefore the figure tends to be watched very closely.

Aside from today’s data release a member of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane will be giving a speech later this week which could cause further movements between the GBP/EUR rate if any hints at future monetary policy are given, especially after talk of an interest rate hike from the BoE has begun to heat up in recent weeks.

The situation in Catalonia looks set to continue which I think could push the Euro lower, so it will be interesting to see if the Pound will recover back to its August highs if the data out of the UK turns more positive.

If you have a large currency exchange to carry out in the coming days, weeks or months then you are more than welcome to speak with me directly as I will be more than happy to help you both with trying to time a transaction and getting you the top market rate when you do come to buy your currency. A small improvement in a rate of exchange can make a huge difference so for the sake of taking two minutes to email me you may find you save yourself hundreds if not thousands of Pounds. You can email me (Joseph Wright) on jxw@currencies.co.uk and I will endeavour to get back to you as soon as I can.

 

Will GBPEUR slip below 1.10?

Dismissed as no longer a likely exchange rate the GBPEUR rate has been very close to the 1.10 level as investors take positions on the Euro which represents a much more secure currency versus the GBP and USD. The Euro has risen to a 2 1/2 year high against the US dollar and is currently enjoying close to a 9 month high against the pound. The outlook for the pound and Euro is such that it would not be at all surprising to see GBPEUR below 1.10 very soon. If you have a transfer buying or selling the pound and Euro making plans around this possible scenario is I believe very much recommended.

If you look at what is driving the pound it is obviously the uncertainty over the Brexit and the economic decline this has caused. More recently the pound had been higher on the prospects of the Bank of England raising interest rates but this is not materialising. Last week Inflation dropped leading to the pound dropping as this effectively rules out any UK interest rate hike in 2017 or maybe further.

There are no guarantees over an interest rate hike for the UK in the future and it is a dangerous gamble for clients buying Euros to be holding back from a purchase just hoping that rates will rise in their favour. Most clients looking to buy Euros should be preparing for further losses as this could easily fall lower.

The Euro is much stronger as politics and economic supports the Eurozone. Expectations on GBPEUR could easily the rate below 1.10, if you have a transfer to make buying or selling Euros for pounds making some plans in advance is wise. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

What next for GBPEUR rates?

Overall the belief on the GBPEUR rate is that it will now continue to ebb lower and lower as the uncertainty over the UK’s political and economic outlook is overshadowed by much improved economic data and also political certainty in the Eurozone. Those who predicted the demise of the Euro and the Eurozone a few years ago are now facing some serious questions as the outlook for the Eurozone continues to improve. If you are selling Euros the likelihood of further improvements cannot be ruled out. The extra 2 cents gained for Euro sellers this week is an extra £1500 in your pocket per €100,000 transferred. If you wish to learn more about rate movements and how much you could save please contact me jmw@currencies.co.uk.

If you have a transfer to make buying or selling the pound and Euro the current trend is looking likely to favour the Euro but there could be surprises on the way. For example Mario Draghi was actually quite ‘dovish’ or soft in his comments yesterday during the European Central Bank (ECB) Press Conference. Nevertheless the Euro rallied essentially as Mario revealed there are plans to taper their bond buying purchases in the future.

This strengthened the Euro but Mario didn’t actually reveal too much on timings, that means that the market might actually have overreacted to his comments. This can often be the case on markets so Euro strength is neither guaranteed or assured. However looking at the overall picture and particularly against a weaker pound a further decline in the GBPEUR rate looks to me likely.

If you have a transfer buying or selling Euros we are here to help with the planning and execution of any transactions for the future. We can help with the forecasting and devising of strategies to help you maximise the transaction. Thank you for reading and please contact me if you would like to discuss anything further by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Will the pound to Euro rate continue to rise?

The pound to Euro rate will continue its volatility in the coming weeks as we get closer to understanding just what type of Government the UK will have in the future. Overall expectations for the future remain unclear as we try to understand what Brexit means and what type of  government the UK will have in the future. It appears a ‘hard Brexit’ is now less likely but with 80% of voters having voted for parties who remain committed to Brexit just what will the future entail? With such uncertainty hanging over the market and the pound the GBPEUR rate does seem very much poised to languish at these lower levels, a move further down cannot be ruled out.

Today is the UK Bank of England decision which could well see some volatility on exchange rates, the general belief we would see UK interest rates rising has been fading and concerns are now rising about the problems in the UK economy form Brexit, the outcome from all of this for the pound is no longer a question. The reality is that the economic conditions in the UK are not meeting expectation and we could be well in line for further falls in the value of the pound.

If you have a transfer to make in the future the outlook on the exchange rate is not looking great for Euro buyers. Euro sellers are now looking at much improved conditions and the market could easily favour further improvements. If you have a transfer to make selling Euros for pounds then the current market should not be taken too much for granted.

For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. I can  provide some insight and information regarding your situation and am very confident I can offer a rate which will save you money.

Thank you for reading and I look forward to hearing from you.

Will the pound to Euro rate fall further?

The pound to euro exchange rate could now really suffer as we get closer to the UK election and any uncertainty of a strong Theresa May victory weighs on the pound and sees exchange rates fall. The overriding impression on the market is that we will soon see the pound rise higher on the back of a strong Theresa May victory. However the potential for a big improvement on the exchange rate is not as high as in previous years where we have seen the market fall and rise sharply owing to the uncertainty around the outcome. This morning’s Retail Sales figures are reason to expect some turbulence ahead of the bigger news in June.

Therefore if you have a currency requirement buying or selling the pound and Euro making some plans around this important event is crucial. Once the UK election is over there then begins a whole new set of problems as we learn of the latest news surrounding the Brexit deal and further problems. If you have a transaction you are considering in the future then making some plans in advance is sensible to avoid the risk of further uncertainty or surprises causing upset.

There is a strong belief that the pound to Euro rate will rise in the future as we get closer to understanding the true nature of the Brexit. However we could be waiting some time to find out exactly how this will pan out. With German elections later in the year the Euro might strengthen but assuming the Conservatives win a strong majority the outlook for GBPEUR is I believe to be close to 1.20 than the mid teens.

If you have a transfer buying or selling the GBPEUR currency pairing then the next few weeks look very interesting. For more information at no cost or obligation please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Euro on the charge, where next for GBPEUR exchange rates?

The pound to Euro rate dropped yesterday as UK Inflation data was shown to be rising at a faster pace than thought and this piles pressure on UK consumers. With consumers in the UK making up a large degree of the financial activity since Brexit, consumer behaviour is crucial to where the UK economy and sterling exchange rates ultimately heads.

The biggest factor for the Euro is at present is improved political news and also economic news. Eurozone GDP was confirmed at 0.5% yesterday and Emmanuel Macron made headway in forming a cabinet which has dispelled some of the fears relating to the Euro over the last few weeks. The economic outlook in the Eurozone is looking much more positive and with Angela Merkel’s party also faring well in the recent elections, much of the political fear and worry over the Eurozone is being neutralised.

This represents a shift as Donald Trump begins to encounter problems with not just the US economy but also politics coming under fire for leaking information to the Russians and also for firing the head of the FBI. The UK too is struggling politically, whilst Theresa May should win the election in June there is uncertainty there over just how it will effect the Brexit.

So all in all the Euro is benefiting from uncertainty elsewhere. I expect this trend to remain as we get closer to the UK election and Donald Trump continues to dance to his own tune with no tangible benefit to the US economy. GBPEUR could easily drift lower now down to 1.14 or 1.15 as we approach the UK election.

Today we have key data with the latest Unemployment figures for the UK so if you have a transfer to make please keep your eyes peeled for this morning’s data at 09.30 am. All in all if you have any currency transfers to make understanding the market and all of your options is key. For a detailed analysis of your position and how we might be able to help please contact me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Will GBPEUR rates rise to 1.20?

It is now looking much less likely but remains a distinct possibility. The overall expectation for the market is that we may possibly see a higher pound but there does definitely remain a risk the pound will slip from the recent highs as the Euro is stronger and might strengthen further as we get the result from the French election. It is now apparent just how much the French election was priced into the value of the Euro as we got Sunday’s results. The market now appears to believe that Macron will win but there is always the chance of a surprise.

On balance, if I was buying Euros I would be looking to move sooner than later ahead of the results from the French election. The expectation for the market is that we will see the Euro gain against a weaker pound. June sees the UK election which is more than likely to contribute to a weaker pound, the overall impression is that Theresa May will win but that doesn’t mean sterling wouldn’t suffer as we get closer to the result. The market will have to debate the likelihood of that victory against the strength of any majority, in recent years the polls have been very wrong!

The pound has recently struggled to break the 1.20 barrier and has also failed to rise above this level at every attempt since the June Referendum. The likelihood of 1.20 is now obviously higher than a few months ago but a challenge above this level will not be easily completed. It will take a big chance of sentiment so if you have a transfer to make buying Euros taking stock of current levels is I believe very sensible.

If you have a transfer to make buying or selling the Euro or pound then the next few weeks will be key! For more information to help with the planning and execution of any currency exchanges please don’t hesitate to contact me, Jonathan Watson, directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk.

Will GBPEUR rise or fall on the French elections?

The general impression is that  GBPEUR will rise since the French election offers lots of potential for Euro weakness in the coming months. The overall impression on financial markets is that a Le Pen or Melenchon victory would severely weaken the Euro, with a real chance at least one of these candidates will make it through to the second round after Sunday’s first round vote the single currency could be in for a tough couple of weeks. What happens is very much open to interpretation, nothing should be taken for granted in such uncertain times, however.

The overriding expectation is that the French election will ultimately be won by the more centrist ‘reformer’ Macron. Performing well in the polls the market is expecting he will beat Le Pen in the run-off on the 7th May. If you have a Euro buying requirement the rates on Monday morning could be much improved as the market debates the likelihood of a Le Pen victory.

The pound has been much stronger on the back of the General Election announcement earlier this week for the UK. Most reports have the pound much stronger in the next few weeks as Theresa May cements her position and is able to drive through more reform. A flipside view is that with her relying less on the elements in the Tory party who seek a harder Brexit, she will be forced to create more of a softer Brexit. This is one of the reasons for the pound rising but such elements and expectations can quickly change.

If you are buying or selling the pound and euro in the coming days and weeks the importance of the French election and the continued Brexit fallout shouldn’t be underestimated. With only a few days between the two rounds of the French election Euro buyers might find they are presented with a fresh unique opportunity to buy Euros, the best in 2017 so far.

If you would like some assistance with the timing and planning of any currency transfers please contact the author Jonathan Watson directly by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk

GBP/EUR breaks 1.17 as services sector remains strong, will the pair hit 1.20? (Joseph Wright)

The UK economy was given a boost yesterday as data showed that its most important sector is performing well.

Economists had anticipated growth in the UK’s services sector but the figure came out higher than they had expected, and the reason Sterling saw a boost of the back of this data release is because the services sector accounts for around 75% of the UK’s economy.

For this reason data releases reflecting the health of this area of the economy can result is swings within GBP exchange rates. Due to the UK entering what could be considered a sensitive time as Brexit is now underway I expect to see these figures followed closely and I think we may see dips within the Pounds value should these figures disappoint.

Another news release which could be watched closely is Gross Domestic Product figures as these will also reflect the health of the UK economy. The next release comes out tomorrow at 1pm and the expectation is for a figure of 0.6% so expect any major deviations from this figure to result in swings within GBP/EUR exchange rates.

If you would like to be kept updated regarding major movements between the Pound and the Euro do feel free to register your details with me.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Pound to Euro rate trades at a 7 week low, will today’s Spring Budget offer the Pound a boost? (Joseph Wright)

The Pound has lost value over the past few weeks, not just against the Euro but across the board of major currencies.

The reason behind the fall can be put down to the uncertainty as to when the UK will begin the Brexit process, and the situation is being made worse as the House of Lords continue to discuss the proposed bill and attempt to make amendments which is negatively impacting the Pound.

Today could be a busy day for GBP exchange rates as Philip Hammond will be going over the Spring Budget. No major changes are expected to the governments current spending plans but I do think a bullish outlook from the UK chancellor will offer the Pound some much needed support. GBP/EUR has lost almost 4 cents in value over the past few weeks after hitting its 2017 high off the back of Euro weakness.

The movements between the GBP/EUR pair in recent weeks may offer an insight into what we can expect between the pair throughout the year. With the Brexit likely to begin this month and a number of key political elections in the Eurozone this year, I think there could be a number of big moves between the pair throughout the year so do feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept updated.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

Will the prospect of a Marine Le Pen Presidential win in France boost the Pound’s value? (Joseph Wright)

Up until yesterday afternoon the GBP/EUR pair had struggled to break above the 1.18 mark, but yesterday Sterling surged all the way up to 1.19 at one stage after benefiting from a weakening Euro.

The Euro weakened across the board yesterday afternoon after far-right French Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen gained further traction in recent opinion polls, with the candidate now a realistic candidate for the Presidency after becoming a favourite.

Moving forward I expect her increase in popularity to weigh on the Euro’s value as she has previously outlined plans to withdraw France from the Eurozone. Moreover she has also suggested that France stops using the Euro and reinstates the French Franc. Should these plans materialise it would surely leave the door open for other Eurozone nations to follow suit which would be detrimental for the Euros value, and the potential of this taking place is already weighing on the Euros value.

Another reason the GBP/EUR exchange rate may see a boost is the UK economy has been posting some impressive economic figures, with the Bank of England hiking the UK’s growth prospects this year and next.

If you wish to be kept up to date with GBP/EUR exchange rates related news do feel free to register with us for updates.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

GBP/EUR exchange rate now approaching 1.17, but will new Brexit fears weaken the Pound? (Joseph Wright)

Yesterday morning the Supreme Court delivered its verdict on whether or not the UK government require parliamentary approval before invoking Article 50, creating some large swings between the GBP/EUR exchange rate.

The Supreme Court decided to uphold the High Court’s decision, meaning that Theresa May will need to consult parliament before formally beginning the Brexit process. Many had expected this outcome to result in Sterling strength and initially the Pound did spike upward, but further complications soon weighed on the Pound causing it to drop.

Moving forward the Pound could continue to come under pressure as one of the key announcements yesterday was that the UK government does not need the permission of the UK’s devolved nations before invoking Article 50. Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon was quick to raise this point and suggested the need for another Scottish Independence referendum.

Sterling came under significant pressure during the last referendum on Scottish independence, and should the matter surface once again it’s likely we can expect to see the Pound soften in value due to further uncertainty on the horizon.

Outside of Brexit related news tomorrow morning could be eventful for Sterling exchange rates as UK GDP figures will be released at 9.30 am tomorrow morning, and the expectation is for a 0.5% through the 4th quarter of 2016.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and another foreign currency, it’s well be worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.

 

GBPEUR rises to fresh highs, what next?

GBPEUR rates have risen to fresh highs presenting some new opportunities for Euro buyers to buy Euros at much better exchange rates than previously thought. The pound to Euro rate rose to almost 1.16 which is a big improvement from the 1.12 that was on offer only a few days ago. Most analysts are worried about the pound in the coming months but Theresa May’s speech has given us fresh direction which could be well worth taking advantage of.

The pound has risen as Theresa May looks to set out a clear vision on her plans for Brexit. This will be in contrast to some of the EU leaders who will give a speech today and may well be looking to dampen May’s position. Expectations are for the UK to now approach the negotiations with some more vigour but it will interesting to see just the pound to euro rate reacts as we learn of updates from the EU as to how they have viewed the recent comments by May.

There is still plenty happening this week which could move the GBPEUR rate including the release of the latest UK Unemployment data today and then the European Central Bank interest rate decision and meeting tomorrow. Markets are very much focused on what is happening for the pound over Brexit but these events  could present some short term opportunities.

Friday is also Donald Trump’s inauguration which could really move the market as investors second guess the market and how Donald Trump’s policies will move global indices on currency and commodities. Most investors are now awaiting with baited breath the next twists and turns on GBPEUR, personally if I was buying Euros I would be cautious about holding on for too long.

For further information on the getting the best exchange rates please speak to me Jonathan by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk. I am very confident I can help with some useful information and an exchange rate that will save you money over other sources, please feel free to contact me.

Thank you for reading.

Jonathan Watson

Will the GBP/EUR pair fall back to their 2016 lows? (Joseph Wright)

Further Brexit jitters have caused the GBP to EUR exchange rate to plummet over the past couple of trading sessions.

In an interview over the weekend the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May commented that her primary focus is likely to be control over immigration as opposed to retaining access to the single market. This suggests a bias towards a ‘Hard Brexit’ as opposed to a softer approach and the currency markets have reacted to this news with the GBPEUR pair breaking below 1.15 and approaching the early 1.14’s at the time of writing.

May announced that the UK would not be able to keep ‘bits’ of EU membership, and since the comments the Pound has been falling across the board and notably against the Euro.

There is some distance for the pair to fall before hitting the lows of 2016. GBP/EUR hit 1.1028 at the beginning of November of last year and as the planned Brexit approaches I wouldn’t rule out further moves towards this level and I think that if the government is able to invoke Article 50 by the end of March as Theresa May plans, I think we could see the pair fall below 1.10 potentially.

Although economic data isn’t the predominant mover of exchange rates currently involving the Pound, investors should pay close attention to UK releases as negative updates have the potential to cause sell-offs in an already under pressure Pound. UK GDP figures will be released tomorrow so feel free to get in touch if you wish to be kept up to date regarding this event.

If you are planning to make a currency exchange involving the Pound and the Euro, it’s well worth your time getting in contact with me on jxw@currencies.co.uk in order to ensure you make a well informed decision on when to make that particular transfer, as well as benefiting from highly competitive exchange rates from one of the UK’s leading foreign currency brokerages. Just provide me with a basic outline of your currency requirement and I will be back in touch with you as soon as possible.