The gamble is doing nothing…
Further to my post yesterday, here is some data on GBPEUR which shows just how quickly rates can change. As discussed I feel there is room for a bit more euro weakness, but that we would not go higher than 1.25 (if we even break 1.22). As you can see from the information below, history dictates that rates could fall back significantly and quickly…
November 2008 rate 1.21 1 month later GBP fell 15.7% to 1.02
June 2010 rate 1.2251 1month later GBP fell 4.3% to 1.1721
August 2010 rate 1.2250 3 months later GBP fell 8.7% to 1.1184
Jan 2011 rate 1.2069 4 months later GBP fell 8.3% to 1.1057
Jan 2012 rate 1.20 …………..?
As tempting as it is to hold out for further gains, is it really worth the risk?
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