Will GBPEUR hit 1.20 this year?

The pound has risen against the Euro and we are now much closer to hitting the 1.20 level than we had been in recent months and really since the Brexit vote. Whilst the rate has been higher than where we are currently, it has been in the 1.19’s at times last February and just after the vote in 2016, the current conditions point towards improvements ahead.

This is down to the progress that is being made on Brexit plus the prospect of the Bank of England raising interest rates. This is being evidenced from the recent twists and turns on the Irish border which are expected to be completed by the end of June. The Irish Prime Minister has stated he wants this finalised by then which should trigger GBP strength once it happens.

Further hints of a deal being reached on a trade basis with the EU would also see the pound much higher in the coming weeks and months. This might take until the autumn but is a real possibility to trigger GBPEUR towards 1.20. The Bank of England might also be looking to raise interest rates or raise their forecast of raising interest rates, this would also be supportive for the pound.

Is 1.20 a guarantee?

Well no, of course not. Nothing is guaranteed on exchange rates! If however, the above conditions are satisfied then it is very possible but this will rely on the Euro not being too strong. The ECB meeting later this month could see a stronger Euro if the ECB are more positive about hiking their rates and withdrawing monetary policy in the future. Any hurdles on Brexit would also hinder the pricing too.

If you need to buy Euros with pounds the outlook is now much more positive but nothing should be taken for granted on exchange rates. For more information on how to track the best rates and assistance with strategies to help maximise your currency exchange, please speak to me Jonathan Watson by emailing jmw@currencies.co.uk.

 

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